铁路路网能力可靠性、能力适应性及抗毁性研究
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摘要
：铁路路网在我国承担着大跨度的经济联系和相互交往的运输工作,虽然铁路运输在幅员辽阔的我国的中远途运输市场上占据着主导地位,但相对公路运输网络来说,铁路路网的发展显得较为缓慢。频繁的列车晚点、每年春运的一票难求都对铁路路网的能力可靠性提出了要求；除此之外,我国急速增长的运输需求和路网上频发的事故对路网的适应性和抗毁性都提出了要求。因此,论文从路网能力入手,提出了铁路路网能力可靠性、能力适应性和抗毁性的评估方法,所做的主要工作包括以下几个部分：
1.阐述铁路路网系统运输能力与一般意义上的生产能力的区别与联系,构建铁路路网系统运输能力体系,提出了相应的能力概念,并构建了路网能力的计算模型,为后续各章节的研究奠定了理论基础。
2.提出铁路路网可靠性的定义,在充分论述了铁路路网不确定性的基础上,给出了以OD流为评估对象,以线路图定能力为评估标准的铁路路网可靠性计算方法。
3.指出铁路路网能力适应性是路网储备能力和路网潜在能力对运输需求增长的适应性特征,路网储备能力和路网潜在能力在空间上的可转移特性使得路网适应性的结果并不唯一,在这种条件下,本文利用运输需求结构约束构建了较为科学的路网适应性计算模型,并提出了适用于路网新建线路方案比选的适应性测度指标。
4.对铁路路网突发损毁事件引起的级联失效效应进行了细化分析,在这一效应的基础上,提出了多个反映路网抗毁性的指标测度并指出了这些指标测度的适用范围。这些测度综合反映了路网对损毁事件的应对能力,通过对这些测度值的分析对比,可以对铁路路网中常驻维修力量的分布、损毁事件后调度策略的决策等方面提供理论依据。
5.以2008年南方雪灾为例对我国铁路客运网络进行了抗毁性研究,通过计算路网中枢纽节点在各个阶段中基于可达性的抗毁测度值,说明了该测度值对损毁事件后上一步调度调整策略的评价作用和对下一步调度调整策略的指导作用。这一算例表明,2008年雪灾之后,铁路管理部门针对路网相关区段中断采取的缓行和车列绕行方案较好地缓解了雪灾对运输需求的负面影响。
图31幅,表22个,参考文献119篇。
Railway network in China takes a large span of economic ties and interaction of transport work. Although the railway transport of China with the large territory occupies a dominant position in long distance transportation market, its development is relatively slower than the highway transportation network. The phenomenons that the train usually behind schedule and the passenger hardly to buy a railway ticket during the Spring Festival askes the railway network must have higher capacity raliability; moreover the transport demand rising rapidly askes the railway network must have more higher capacity flexibility; the accident oftenly happened in railway network askes the railway network must have higher survivability. So, this paper gives the evaluation methods about capacity raliability, capacity flexibility and survivability of railway network based on the railway network capacity. All the works in this paper includes the following five components:
1. Based on the difference and the relation of the production capacity and the railway network capacity, this paper constructs the railway network capacity system; gives the concept for corresponding network capacity and then, the calculating model for railway network carrying capacity is proposed. This is the theoretical research basis for the subsequent chapters.
2. Propose the concept of the railway network capacity reliability. Based on the study of uncertainty analysis about railway network, this paper put forward a way to calculate the capacity raliability of railway network with the OD flows as the objects and the lines capacity as the rules.
3. System capacity flexibility is the ability of a transport system to accommodate variations or changes in traffic demand while maintaining a satisfactory level performance. It is closely related to the reserve capacity and potential capacity of railway network. In fact, this two kinds capacity can transfer from a line to another in railway network, so the capacity flexibility of a railway network is not the only one. Under this condition, the paper proposes a railway network capacity flexibility model with a demand structure constraint equation in. In addition, this paper gives a measure to calculate the capacity flexibility of railway network.
4. This paper analyses the cascading failure by unexpected events in railway network in detail. Based on the cascading failure, four models for indices of the network survivability are put forword to evaluate the survivability of the railway network system. These measures reflect the ability of network to accommodate the damage. Through the analysis and comparison of the measure values, we can provide some theoretical basis for the distribution of repair teams and the changes of schedule after damage events.
5. The survivability of railway network is assessed and analyzed at the background of the2008snowstorm. From the numerical example, after the2008snowstorm, the plan with trains jogging and routes changing alleviates the negative effects of the snowstorm.
1.阐述铁路路网系统运输能力与一般意义上的生产能力的区别与联系,构建铁路路网系统运输能力体系,提出了相应的能力概念,并构建了路网能力的计算模型,为后续各章节的研究奠定了理论基础。
2.提出铁路路网可靠性的定义,在充分论述了铁路路网不确定性的基础上,给出了以OD流为评估对象,以线路图定能力为评估标准的铁路路网可靠性计算方法。
3.指出铁路路网能力适应性是路网储备能力和路网潜在能力对运输需求增长的适应性特征,路网储备能力和路网潜在能力在空间上的可转移特性使得路网适应性的结果并不唯一,在这种条件下,本文利用运输需求结构约束构建了较为科学的路网适应性计算模型,并提出了适用于路网新建线路方案比选的适应性测度指标。
4.对铁路路网突发损毁事件引起的级联失效效应进行了细化分析,在这一效应的基础上,提出了多个反映路网抗毁性的指标测度并指出了这些指标测度的适用范围。这些测度综合反映了路网对损毁事件的应对能力,通过对这些测度值的分析对比,可以对铁路路网中常驻维修力量的分布、损毁事件后调度策略的决策等方面提供理论依据。
5.以2008年南方雪灾为例对我国铁路客运网络进行了抗毁性研究,通过计算路网中枢纽节点在各个阶段中基于可达性的抗毁测度值,说明了该测度值对损毁事件后上一步调度调整策略的评价作用和对下一步调度调整策略的指导作用。这一算例表明,2008年雪灾之后,铁路管理部门针对路网相关区段中断采取的缓行和车列绕行方案较好地缓解了雪灾对运输需求的负面影响。
图31幅,表22个,参考文献119篇。
Railway network in China takes a large span of economic ties and interaction of transport work. Although the railway transport of China with the large territory occupies a dominant position in long distance transportation market, its development is relatively slower than the highway transportation network. The phenomenons that the train usually behind schedule and the passenger hardly to buy a railway ticket during the Spring Festival askes the railway network must have higher capacity raliability; moreover the transport demand rising rapidly askes the railway network must have more higher capacity flexibility; the accident oftenly happened in railway network askes the railway network must have higher survivability. So, this paper gives the evaluation methods about capacity raliability, capacity flexibility and survivability of railway network based on the railway network capacity. All the works in this paper includes the following five components:
1. Based on the difference and the relation of the production capacity and the railway network capacity, this paper constructs the railway network capacity system; gives the concept for corresponding network capacity and then, the calculating model for railway network carrying capacity is proposed. This is the theoretical research basis for the subsequent chapters.
2. Propose the concept of the railway network capacity reliability. Based on the study of uncertainty analysis about railway network, this paper put forward a way to calculate the capacity raliability of railway network with the OD flows as the objects and the lines capacity as the rules.
3. System capacity flexibility is the ability of a transport system to accommodate variations or changes in traffic demand while maintaining a satisfactory level performance. It is closely related to the reserve capacity and potential capacity of railway network. In fact, this two kinds capacity can transfer from a line to another in railway network, so the capacity flexibility of a railway network is not the only one. Under this condition, the paper proposes a railway network capacity flexibility model with a demand structure constraint equation in. In addition, this paper gives a measure to calculate the capacity flexibility of railway network.
4. This paper analyses the cascading failure by unexpected events in railway network in detail. Based on the cascading failure, four models for indices of the network survivability are put forword to evaluate the survivability of the railway network system. These measures reflect the ability of network to accommodate the damage. Through the analysis and comparison of the measure values, we can provide some theoretical basis for the distribution of repair teams and the changes of schedule after damage events.
5. The survivability of railway network is assessed and analyzed at the background of the2008snowstorm. From the numerical example, after the2008snowstorm, the plan with trains jogging and routes changing alleviates the negative effects of the snowstorm.
引文
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