低碳经济背景下我国出口商品结构优化研究
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摘要
我国传统贸易的发展模式是以出口导向型为主,出口产品主要是高能耗、高污染、低技术的资源密集型和劳动密集型产品。低碳经济在全球范围内被积极倡导,在这样的背景下我们需要转换方式,调整相应的政策法规,以实现我国商品出口的可持续发展。为应对全球气候变化给我们带来的挑战,我国政府制定了碳减排目标为：单位GDP碳排放2020年将比2005年降低40%-45%。我国国内大量的消费和投资引起了CO2排放量的快速增长,然而进行世界范围的加工生产也是导致国内CO2排放量不断增长的主要因素。我国出口行业总收入占GDP近三分之一,因此这个行业各部门的CO2排放量与碳减排目标的实现有着直接关系。除此以外,欧美等发达国家还实施碳关税以限制其他国家高碳产品的出口。鉴于国内和国际的趋势和要求,优化我国出口商品结构已经成为出口贸易可持续发展和积极发展低碳经济的必然路径。
本文系统的总结了国内外研究成果,从宏观变化、市场结构、统计、指数四个方面分析了我国出口商品结构的现状,并在此基础上通过选取合适的测算方法,构造计量模型揭示我国出口商品结构存在的问题。具体而言,本文以2002年和2007年31个部门的耗费资源数据为依据,采用投入产出法测算出各产业部门产品的CO2排放量,测算出产品出口产生的CO2排放量进而揭示我国出口商品结构存在的问题。通过实证分析其结论为我国的出口商品部门多分布在碳排放强度高的加工制造业,而碳排放强度较低的金融业、农业、服务业的相关部门较少。这表明在国际市场上我国的高碳产品较多,这就直接造成了我国出口商品结构中高碳产品所占比重大,不利于我国低碳经济的发展。低碳经济背景下我国出口商品结构优化的制约因素既有来自于企业层面的,又有政府层面和市场层面的。最后,本文着重分析了这些制约因素并从企业和政府角度提出了应对策略。
The development pattern of Chinese traditional trade is mainly in export-orinted mode, and the export products concentrates in the industry with energy-consuming, high pollution, low technology of labor-intensive and resource-intensive. In the global Low-carbon economic background, we must change our traditionnal way of thinking and adjust the policy to realize the sustainable development of foreign trade in our country. To reduce greenhouse gas emission and face the challenge of the global climate change, the Chinese government announced a operational goal that carbon emissions will reduce by 40%-45% per unit of GDP in 2020 than in 2005. China's rapid growth in Carbon dioxide emissions not only due to its huge domestic consumption demand and investment in fixed assets, but also China always acts as a "world factory". Total income of export industry is nearly one third of the total GDP and its Carbon dioxide emissions has grate influence on the realization of carbon emission reduction goals. In addition, Some developed countries also restrict high-carbon products and implement the carbon tax policy. Facing the dual pressure of domestic and abroad, The optimization of scale of chinese export trade has become the way for the sustainable develop ment of foreign and the positive development of low-carbon economy.
This paper systematically summarizes the domestic and international results and analyzes the new situation of Chinese export commodity structure from four aspects, macro changes, market structure, statistical, index analysis, and on this basis, It reveals the problems of chinese export commodity structure by selecting the proper meathod of calculation and measuremer mode. Specifically, this paper bases on consumed resource data offered by the 31 department form 2002 to 2007, and adopt the estimate method of input-output to estimate the Carbon dioxide emissions generated by all the industrial department and the export commodity structure so that we can reveal the problem of it. After the analysis, the conclusion is that Chinese export department mainly in manufacturing industry and rarely in the department of agriculture, finance, services with the lower carbon intensity. It shows that Chinese high carbon industry has strong competitiveness, which results in the chinese export trade in a higher proportion of high-carbon products. The negative factor of the optimization of Chinese commmodity structure in the low-carbon economy relates to enterprise aspects, also government and market aspects. At last, the paper analyzes the neative factor significantly and put forward the effective strategies in the perspective of enterprises and government.
本文系统的总结了国内外研究成果,从宏观变化、市场结构、统计、指数四个方面分析了我国出口商品结构的现状,并在此基础上通过选取合适的测算方法,构造计量模型揭示我国出口商品结构存在的问题。具体而言,本文以2002年和2007年31个部门的耗费资源数据为依据,采用投入产出法测算出各产业部门产品的CO2排放量,测算出产品出口产生的CO2排放量进而揭示我国出口商品结构存在的问题。通过实证分析其结论为我国的出口商品部门多分布在碳排放强度高的加工制造业,而碳排放强度较低的金融业、农业、服务业的相关部门较少。这表明在国际市场上我国的高碳产品较多,这就直接造成了我国出口商品结构中高碳产品所占比重大,不利于我国低碳经济的发展。低碳经济背景下我国出口商品结构优化的制约因素既有来自于企业层面的,又有政府层面和市场层面的。最后,本文着重分析了这些制约因素并从企业和政府角度提出了应对策略。
The development pattern of Chinese traditional trade is mainly in export-orinted mode, and the export products concentrates in the industry with energy-consuming, high pollution, low technology of labor-intensive and resource-intensive. In the global Low-carbon economic background, we must change our traditionnal way of thinking and adjust the policy to realize the sustainable development of foreign trade in our country. To reduce greenhouse gas emission and face the challenge of the global climate change, the Chinese government announced a operational goal that carbon emissions will reduce by 40%-45% per unit of GDP in 2020 than in 2005. China's rapid growth in Carbon dioxide emissions not only due to its huge domestic consumption demand and investment in fixed assets, but also China always acts as a "world factory". Total income of export industry is nearly one third of the total GDP and its Carbon dioxide emissions has grate influence on the realization of carbon emission reduction goals. In addition, Some developed countries also restrict high-carbon products and implement the carbon tax policy. Facing the dual pressure of domestic and abroad, The optimization of scale of chinese export trade has become the way for the sustainable develop ment of foreign and the positive development of low-carbon economy.
This paper systematically summarizes the domestic and international results and analyzes the new situation of Chinese export commodity structure from four aspects, macro changes, market structure, statistical, index analysis, and on this basis, It reveals the problems of chinese export commodity structure by selecting the proper meathod of calculation and measuremer mode. Specifically, this paper bases on consumed resource data offered by the 31 department form 2002 to 2007, and adopt the estimate method of input-output to estimate the Carbon dioxide emissions generated by all the industrial department and the export commodity structure so that we can reveal the problem of it. After the analysis, the conclusion is that Chinese export department mainly in manufacturing industry and rarely in the department of agriculture, finance, services with the lower carbon intensity. It shows that Chinese high carbon industry has strong competitiveness, which results in the chinese export trade in a higher proportion of high-carbon products. The negative factor of the optimization of Chinese commmodity structure in the low-carbon economy relates to enterprise aspects, also government and market aspects. At last, the paper analyzes the neative factor significantly and put forward the effective strategies in the perspective of enterprises and government.
引文
①绿色GDP定义参见杨欢进著《西方经济专题研究》一书。
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[2]庄贵阳.低碳经济：气候变化背景下中国的发展之路.北京气象出版社.2007(8).
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[14]赵玉敏.竞争优势基础-优化中国出口商品结构政策.国际贸易.2000(11).
[15]胡鞍钢.中国如何应对全球气候变暖的挑战.低碳经济论.北京中国环境科学出版社.2008(12).
[16]李丽平等.国际贸易视角下的中国碳排放责任分析.环境保护.2008(3).
[17]廖玫.外国环境规制对中国纺织品出口贸易影响实证研究.江苏商论.2007(7).
[18]曾卫锋.关于改善我国出商品结构问题的探讨.财贸经济.1998(6).
[19]王军.贸易与环境研究的现状及进展.世界经济.2004(7).
[20]赵小林.我国出口商品结构存在的问题及其对策.西南民族学院学报.哲学社会科学版.2000(6).
[21]董承章.投入产出分析[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社.2000(6).
[22]朱启荣.中国出口贸易中的CO2排放问题研究.中国工业经济.2010(1).
[23]高志.中国外贸跨世纪发展的思考-论出口商品结构优化.北方论丛.2000(2).
[24]李俊峰,马玲娟.低炭经济是规制世界发展及格局的新规则.世界环境.2008(2).
[25]潘家华.低碳发展的社会经济与技术分析.可持续发展的理念、制度与政策.北京社会科学文献出版社.2004(8).
[26]沈荣珊,任荣明.贸易自由化环境效应的实证分析.国际贸易问题.2006(7).
[27]付允.低碳经济的发展模式研究.中国人口、资源与环境.2008(3).
[28]吴易明.环境经济政策对贸易影响的理论分析.国际经贸探索.2007(8).
[29]赵玉焕.环境与贸易协调研究.对外经济贸易大学博士学位论文.2001(8).
[30]国家统计局国民经济核算司.中国投入产出表(2002)[M].中国统计出版社.2006.
[31]陈迎,潘家华,谢来辉.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及其政策含义[J].经济研究.2008(7).
[32]Copeland. Brian and Taylor.M.Cott: 'Trade and TransBoundary pollution' The Ameriean Eeonomic Review.1995.
[33]Copeland. Brian and Taylor.M.Cott:North-south Tarde and The Environment. Quarterly Journal of Economic.1994.
[34]Antweiler, Werner, Copland, Brian.R and Taylor.M.Seott:'Is Free Trade Good For The Environment?'The Ameriean Eeonomic Review September 2001.
[35]Mongelli I, Tassielli G, Notarnicola B. Global warmingagreements, international trade and energy carbon embodiments:an input-output approach to the Italian case [J]. Energy Policy.2006.
[36]Ahmad N, Wyckoff A W. Carbon dioxide emissions embodied in international trade of goods [EB/OL].2008.http://www.oecd.org/sti/working-papers.
[37]刘林奇.我国对外贸易与环境污染问题研究综述.经济师.2008(6).
[38]世界自然基金会低碳企业发展项目组.企业低碳领导力.中信出版社.2010(4)：99-101
[39]世界自然基金会低碳企业发展项目组.企业低碳领导力.中信出版社.2010(4)：136-137
[1]谢伟伟.低碳经济的发展现状与对策.经济导刊[J].2010(6).
[2]庄贵阳.低碳经济：气候变化背景下中国的发展之路.北京气象出版社.2007(8).
[3]张亚斌,夏修海.中国出口商品结构升级的制度性障碍因素分析.财经理论与实践.1999(1).
[4]齐晔,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口资源与环境.2008(1).
[5]刘强,庄幸,姜克隽等.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济.2008(8).
[6]朱启荣,高敬峰.中国对外贸易中的虚拟水问题研究[J].中国软科学.2009(5).
[7]李秀香,张婷.出口增长对我国环境影响的实证分析-以C02排放量为例.国际贸易问题.2004(7).
[8]许士春.贸易对我国环境影响的实证分析.世界经济研究.2006(3).
[9]李斌,宣加骥.优化出口商品结构的非线性目标规划模型、算法及应用.中国管理科学.1996(4).
[10]UK Energy Paper. Our Energy Future-Creatina Low Carbon Economy.2003.
[11]US. Energy Information Administration. Internationalenergy annual 2006 [EB/OL].2008. http://www.eia.doe.gov/.
[12]International Energy Agency. World energy outlook 2006[EB/OL].2008. http://www. iea.org/textbase/.
[13]韩立华.中俄贸易：优化出口商品结构势在必行.东欧中亚市场研究.2001(3).
[14]赵玉敏.竞争优势基础-优化中国出口商品结构政策.国际贸易.2000(11).
[15]胡鞍钢.中国如何应对全球气候变暖的挑战.低碳经济论.北京中国环境科学出版社.2008(12).
[16]李丽平等.国际贸易视角下的中国碳排放责任分析.环境保护.2008(3).
[17]廖玫.外国环境规制对中国纺织品出口贸易影响实证研究.江苏商论.2007(7).
[18]曾卫锋.关于改善我国出商品结构问题的探讨.财贸经济.1998(6).
[19]王军.贸易与环境研究的现状及进展.世界经济.2004(7).
[20]赵小林.我国出口商品结构存在的问题及其对策.西南民族学院学报.哲学社会科学版.2000(6).
[21]董承章.投入产出分析[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社.2000(6).
[22]朱启荣.中国出口贸易中的CO2排放问题研究.中国工业经济.2010(1).
[23]高志.中国外贸跨世纪发展的思考-论出口商品结构优化.北方论丛.2000(2).
[24]李俊峰,马玲娟.低炭经济是规制世界发展及格局的新规则.世界环境.2008(2).
[25]潘家华.低碳发展的社会经济与技术分析.可持续发展的理念、制度与政策.北京社会科学文献出版社.2004(8).
[26]沈荣珊,任荣明.贸易自由化环境效应的实证分析.国际贸易问题.2006(7).
[27]付允.低碳经济的发展模式研究.中国人口、资源与环境.2008(3).
[28]吴易明.环境经济政策对贸易影响的理论分析.国际经贸探索.2007(8).
[29]赵玉焕.环境与贸易协调研究.对外经济贸易大学博士学位论文.2001(8).
[30]国家统计局国民经济核算司.中国投入产出表(2002)[M].中国统计出版社.2006.
[31]陈迎,潘家华,谢来辉.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及其政策含义[J].经济研究.2008(7).
[32]Copeland. Brian and Taylor.M.Cott: 'Trade and TransBoundary pollution' The Ameriean Eeonomic Review.1995.
[33]Copeland. Brian and Taylor.M.Cott:North-south Tarde and The Environment. Quarterly Journal of Economic.1994.
[34]Antweiler, Werner, Copland, Brian.R and Taylor.M.Seott:'Is Free Trade Good For The Environment?'The Ameriean Eeonomic Review September 2001.
[35]Mongelli I, Tassielli G, Notarnicola B. Global warmingagreements, international trade and energy carbon embodiments:an input-output approach to the Italian case [J]. Energy Policy.2006.
[36]Ahmad N, Wyckoff A W. Carbon dioxide emissions embodied in international trade of goods [EB/OL].2008.http://www.oecd.org/sti/working-papers.
[37]刘林奇.我国对外贸易与环境污染问题研究综述.经济师.2008(6).
[38]世界自然基金会低碳企业发展项目组.企业低碳领导力.中信出版社.2010(4)：99-101
[39]世界自然基金会低碳企业发展项目组.企业低碳领导力.中信出版社.2010(4)：136-137