碳关税对中国高碳产品出口的影响
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摘要
随着全球经济的不断发展,工业化程度不断加深,其引发的环境问题也愈发明显,二氧化碳排放过量导致的全球气候变暖是其中之一。为了抑制环境的进一步恶化,国际上出台了一系列减排的政策,如《京都议定书》等,主要内容是硬性要求部分发达国家承担减排责任,发展中国家不受到强制性要求。由于减排会对一国的工业造成较大影响进而影响该国的国际贸易,以美国为代表的发达国家提出了“碳关税“,旨在通过对高耗能产品征收一定额度的碳排放税从而达到环境保护以及贸易保护的目的。本文试图分析的问题是,一旦美国开征碳关税,中国应采取何种态度应对,并以中美钢铁贸易为例分析碳关税对中国的高碳产品出口贸易可能造成的影响,并针对此提出政策建议。
本文通过引进进化博弈论,分析以中国为代表的发展中国家和以美国为代表的发达国家就是否开征碳关税问题进行谈判,得出最优解是发展中国家接受碳关税。引入国际贸易中的交易成本理论说明碳关税这一非贸易壁垒对被征税国家会产生不利影响。本文通过搜集近年中国对美国钢铁出口贸易的具体数据估算出钢铁出口量和出口价格之间的线性关系,并估算出在每吨碳30美元的碳关税税率下钢铁出口量会减少22.51%,每吨碳60美元的税率下会减少41.99%。本文提出的政策建议主要有三个方面,一是建议以中国为代表的发展中国家应该积极参与碳关税的制定,二是通过扩大内需减少中国的外貌依存度以减轻征收碳关税带来的影响,最后从根本出发,加强科技创新,优化产业结构,在国内大力发展低碳产业,以顺应时代和环境的要求,使中国在国际贸易中利于不败之地。
With the development of global economic, industrialization is deeper and deeper. It causes a series of problems of environment. The over-emissions of carbon dioxide have caused rises of temperature all over the world. To stop environment from further worsening, many countries have formulated some policies such as“Kyoto Protocol”. These policies mostly stipulate that developed countries should undertake the major responsibility of carbon emission reduction and developing countries are not forced to undertake any responsibility. Since carbon emission reduction will influence a country’s industry and do harm to its international trade,developed countries, especially America, represents the carbon tariff in order to protect its international trade. This paper tries to analyze that once America start to levy carbon tariff, the attitude China should show. This paper also analyzes the influence of carbon tariff to China’s carbon products export and gives some advice.
Through introducing Evolutionary Game Theory, this paper draws the conclusion that the best result is that China should accept carbon tariff. Transaction cost theory in international trade is used to prove that carbon tariff is harmful to the countries that are charged. The writer of this paper collects the data of China’s iron export to America and estimates the linear relation of number and price. It draws a conclusion that in the rate of 30$/ton, the number of iron export will reduce 22.51%, and in the rate of 60$/ton, the reduction will rise to 41.99%.This paper primarily represents three suggests. First, the developing countries, especially China, should play a more important role in formulation of carbon tariff. The second is that China should increase domestic demand to reduce the ratio of dependence on foreign trade so as to reduce the influence of carbon tariff. The last, China should strengthens the scientific innovation and optimize the industrial structure and develop low-carbon industry in domestic.
本文通过引进进化博弈论,分析以中国为代表的发展中国家和以美国为代表的发达国家就是否开征碳关税问题进行谈判,得出最优解是发展中国家接受碳关税。引入国际贸易中的交易成本理论说明碳关税这一非贸易壁垒对被征税国家会产生不利影响。本文通过搜集近年中国对美国钢铁出口贸易的具体数据估算出钢铁出口量和出口价格之间的线性关系,并估算出在每吨碳30美元的碳关税税率下钢铁出口量会减少22.51%,每吨碳60美元的税率下会减少41.99%。本文提出的政策建议主要有三个方面,一是建议以中国为代表的发展中国家应该积极参与碳关税的制定,二是通过扩大内需减少中国的外貌依存度以减轻征收碳关税带来的影响,最后从根本出发,加强科技创新,优化产业结构,在国内大力发展低碳产业,以顺应时代和环境的要求,使中国在国际贸易中利于不败之地。
With the development of global economic, industrialization is deeper and deeper. It causes a series of problems of environment. The over-emissions of carbon dioxide have caused rises of temperature all over the world. To stop environment from further worsening, many countries have formulated some policies such as“Kyoto Protocol”. These policies mostly stipulate that developed countries should undertake the major responsibility of carbon emission reduction and developing countries are not forced to undertake any responsibility. Since carbon emission reduction will influence a country’s industry and do harm to its international trade,developed countries, especially America, represents the carbon tariff in order to protect its international trade. This paper tries to analyze that once America start to levy carbon tariff, the attitude China should show. This paper also analyzes the influence of carbon tariff to China’s carbon products export and gives some advice.
Through introducing Evolutionary Game Theory, this paper draws the conclusion that the best result is that China should accept carbon tariff. Transaction cost theory in international trade is used to prove that carbon tariff is harmful to the countries that are charged. The writer of this paper collects the data of China’s iron export to America and estimates the linear relation of number and price. It draws a conclusion that in the rate of 30$/ton, the number of iron export will reduce 22.51%, and in the rate of 60$/ton, the reduction will rise to 41.99%.This paper primarily represents three suggests. First, the developing countries, especially China, should play a more important role in formulation of carbon tariff. The second is that China should increase domestic demand to reduce the ratio of dependence on foreign trade so as to reduce the influence of carbon tariff. The last, China should strengthens the scientific innovation and optimize the industrial structure and develop low-carbon industry in domestic.
引文
①谢来辉.欧盟应对气候变化的边境调节税:新的贸易壁垒[J].国际贸易问题,2008( 2): 65-71
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⑥姚愉芳,齐舒畅和刘琪.中国进出口贸易与经济、就业、能源关系及对策研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008( 10):56-65
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①齐晔,李惠民和徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口资源与环境,2008(3):8-13
②曲如晓,马建平.贸易与气候变化:国际贸易的新热点[J].国际贸易, 2009(7): 39-42.
③徐驰.碳关税对国际贸易的影响分析及应对措施——以中美贸易为例[ J].技术监督教育学刊, 2009(1) : 75-80
④Babiker M H. Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2005(65): 421-445
①Dong Y, Whalley J. Carbon motivated regional trade arrangements: analytics and simulations[R]. Cambridge: NBER Working Paper No. 14880, 2009: 1-30
②郭毅,张硕.碳关税:责任督促还是贸易壁垒[J].WTO经济导刊,2009( 9):76-77
③沈可挺,李钢.碳关税对中国工业品出口的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型的评估[J].财贸经济,2010(1):75-82
④樊纲.不如我们自己先征碳关税[J].资源再生,2009( 9):40-41
⑤闫晓虹.“中国制造”应坦然面对碳关税[ EB/OL]. (2010- 02- 07).http: //news.sto ckstar.com/
①夏先良.碳关税、低碳经济和中美贸易再平衡[J].国际贸易,2009(11)
②张中祥.美国拟征收碳关税中国当如何应对[J].国际石油经济,2009(8):44-45
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①Shui B, Harriss R C. The role of CO2 embodmient in US-China trade[J]. Energy Policy, 2006(34): 955-960
②Li Y, Hewitt C N. The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions.[J]. Energy Policy, 2008(36): 1907-1914.
③Wang T, Watson J. Who Owns China’s Carbon Emissions? [R]. Brighton: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2007: 1-7
④Peters G P, Hertwich E G. CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy[J].Environmental Science and Techno logy,2008(42): 1401-1407.
⑤Lin B, Sun C. Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China [J]. Energy Policy, 2010(38): 613-621
⑥姚愉芳,齐舒畅和刘琪.中国进出口贸易与经济、就业、能源关系及对策研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008( 10):56-65
⑦陈迎,潘家华和谢来辉.中国外贸进出口商品中的内涵能源及其政策含义[J].经济研究, 2008( 7):11-25
⑧刘强,庄幸和姜克隽等.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析[J].中国工业经济,2008(8):46-55
①齐晔,李惠民和徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口资源与环境,2008(3):8-13
②曲如晓,马建平.贸易与气候变化:国际贸易的新热点[J].国际贸易, 2009(7): 39-42.
③徐驰.碳关税对国际贸易的影响分析及应对措施——以中美贸易为例[ J].技术监督教育学刊, 2009(1) : 75-80
④Babiker M H. Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2005(65): 421-445
①Dong Y, Whalley J. Carbon motivated regional trade arrangements: analytics and simulations[R]. Cambridge: NBER Working Paper No. 14880, 2009: 1-30
②郭毅,张硕.碳关税:责任督促还是贸易壁垒[J].WTO经济导刊,2009( 9):76-77
③沈可挺,李钢.碳关税对中国工业品出口的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型的评估[J].财贸经济,2010(1):75-82
④樊纲.不如我们自己先征碳关税[J].资源再生,2009( 9):40-41
⑤闫晓虹.“中国制造”应坦然面对碳关税[ EB/OL]. (2010- 02- 07).http: //news.sto ckstar.com/
①夏先良.碳关税、低碳经济和中美贸易再平衡[J].国际贸易,2009(11)
②张中祥.美国拟征收碳关税中国当如何应对[J].国际石油经济,2009(8):44-45
[1] Babiker M H. Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage[J]. Journal of International Economics, 2005(65): 421-445.
[2] Bin, Shui and Robert C. Harriss. The role of CO2 embodiment in US-China trade [J]. Energy Policy, 2006 (34) :4063-4069.
[3] Bordoff.J.E.The Threat to Free Trade Posed by Climate Change Policy.Remarks to the Geneva Trade and Development Forum[Z].Crans-Montana,Switzerland, September19,2008.
[4] Cai Y. Z., Riezman R., Whalley J. International Trade and the Negotiability of Global Climate Change Agreements. NBER WorkingPaper, No. 14711, 2009.
[5] Chatterji S., Ghosal S., Walsh S., et al. Unilateral Measures and Emissions Mitigation. NBER Working Paper, No. 15441, 2009.
[6] Dong Y, Whalley J. Carbon motivated regional trade arrangements: analytics and simulations[R].Cambridge: NBER Working Paper No. 14880, 2009: 1-30.
[7] Gros D. Global Welfare Implications of Carbon Border Taxes. CESIFO Working Paper, No.2790, 2009.
[8] Li Y, Hewitt C N. The effect of trade between China and the UK on national and global carbon dioxide emissions.[J]. Energy Policy, 2008(36): 1907-1914.
[9] Lin B, Sun C. Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China [J]. Energy Policy, 2010(38): 613-621.
[10] Lockwood B., Whalley J. Carbon Motivated Border Tax Adjustments: Old Wine in Green Bottles? NBER Working Paper, No.14025, 2008.
[11] Peters G P, Hertwich E G. CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy[J].Environmental Science and Techno logy,2008(42): 1401-1407.
[12] Shui B, Harriss R C. The role of CO2 embodmient in US-China trade[J]. Energy Policy, 2006(34): 955-960.
[13] Wang T, Watson J. Who Owns China’s Carbon Emissions? [R]. Brighton: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2007: 1-7.
[14] Weber C. L., Peters G. P. Climate Change Policy and International Trade: PolicyConsiderations in the US[J]. Energy Policy, 2009,37:432-440.
[15] World Bank. Internationa lT rade and C lim ate Change[ R] . W ash ing ton DC: World Bank, 2007.
[16]安飞.碳关税的深层逻辑[J].中国船检,2009(7)
[17]陈新平,周劲松.碳关税若干问题研究[J].宏观经济管理,2009(12):52-53.
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