中国出口贸易低碳化策略研究
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摘要
我国出口贸易规模持续扩大,使能源消费量不断提高,因出口贸易而引发的隐含碳排放量也一直居高不下。中国是全球出口第一大国,出口贸易在带动国民经济增长的同时也导致大量碳排放。对出口贸易中隐含碳排放的结构及影响因素开展研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。
论文选取了18个主要出口行业,利用扩展的投入产出模型对我国1997、2002、2005、2007四年各出口行业隐含碳排放分别进行估算,根据测算结果对各出口行业的隐含碳排放进行了对比分析,揭示我国出口隐含碳的结构和行业分布特征。随后,论文运用出口贸易环境效应模型,选取2005-2007年9个主要隐含碳出口行业,分别分析了出口隐含碳排放的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应这三方面因素。结果显示我国出口贸易规模不断扩大是导致我国出口隐含碳排放持续增长的主要原因,出口行业结构也不尽合理,出口行业结构变化不仅未能使贸易向低碳化方向发展反而导致隐含碳排放增加,技术进步虽然有利于降低出口贸易带来的隐含碳排放,但其效应不足以抵消规模效应引发的隐含碳排放量剧增。
最后根据上述测算与分析,提出了我国贸易低碳化发展的战略思路,分别从国家、产业和企业三个层面提出了贸易低碳化发展的政策与措施。
In the recent years, while the scale of China's export trade continued to soar, the consumption of energy has been increasing and the emission of embodied carbon caused by the export trade is also on the increase. China is the biggest export country, when the export trades triggered the growth of the national economy, it also brought a lot of embodied carbon emissions. So it has very important practical and theoretical significance to research the embodied carbon emission arising from the export trade.
This paper selects eighteen major export industries. Using the extended input-output model, to estimate the embodied carbon emission of each industry arising from the export trade in 1997、2002、2005、2007. And then according to the results of analysis, to identify the structural characteristics and industrial distribution of embodied carbon export. After the calculation and analysis on the embodied carbon export, we referenced the study of foreign scholar about the effect model of export on environment, selecting nine major export sectors of embodied carbon export between 2005-2007,by decomposing the factor which affect the embodied carbon arising from export trade into three aspects including scale、structure and technology effect of export, and then analyzing these three aspects. The results shows that the main reason for the increasing of embodied carbon export is the expanding scale of export trade; The structure of China's export is unreasonable, so the changes in the structure of export did not reduce but increase the export volume of embodied carbon emission; Technological progress to reduce embodied carbon emission arising from the export trade,but the contribution of the technological progress is too small to offset the rapid increase of embodied carbon emission resulting from the effects of scale.
Finally, based on the results of analysis, the paper proposed a new strategic thinking about China's export trade developing in the direction towards low -carbon,and it carried some relevant policies and proposals about how to make China's export trade developing along the direction of low-carbon way from three aspects, that is national level、industry level and enterprise level.
论文选取了18个主要出口行业,利用扩展的投入产出模型对我国1997、2002、2005、2007四年各出口行业隐含碳排放分别进行估算,根据测算结果对各出口行业的隐含碳排放进行了对比分析,揭示我国出口隐含碳的结构和行业分布特征。随后,论文运用出口贸易环境效应模型,选取2005-2007年9个主要隐含碳出口行业,分别分析了出口隐含碳排放的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应这三方面因素。结果显示我国出口贸易规模不断扩大是导致我国出口隐含碳排放持续增长的主要原因,出口行业结构也不尽合理,出口行业结构变化不仅未能使贸易向低碳化方向发展反而导致隐含碳排放增加,技术进步虽然有利于降低出口贸易带来的隐含碳排放,但其效应不足以抵消规模效应引发的隐含碳排放量剧增。
最后根据上述测算与分析,提出了我国贸易低碳化发展的战略思路,分别从国家、产业和企业三个层面提出了贸易低碳化发展的政策与措施。
In the recent years, while the scale of China's export trade continued to soar, the consumption of energy has been increasing and the emission of embodied carbon caused by the export trade is also on the increase. China is the biggest export country, when the export trades triggered the growth of the national economy, it also brought a lot of embodied carbon emissions. So it has very important practical and theoretical significance to research the embodied carbon emission arising from the export trade.
This paper selects eighteen major export industries. Using the extended input-output model, to estimate the embodied carbon emission of each industry arising from the export trade in 1997、2002、2005、2007. And then according to the results of analysis, to identify the structural characteristics and industrial distribution of embodied carbon export. After the calculation and analysis on the embodied carbon export, we referenced the study of foreign scholar about the effect model of export on environment, selecting nine major export sectors of embodied carbon export between 2005-2007,by decomposing the factor which affect the embodied carbon arising from export trade into three aspects including scale、structure and technology effect of export, and then analyzing these three aspects. The results shows that the main reason for the increasing of embodied carbon export is the expanding scale of export trade; The structure of China's export is unreasonable, so the changes in the structure of export did not reduce but increase the export volume of embodied carbon emission; Technological progress to reduce embodied carbon emission arising from the export trade,but the contribution of the technological progress is too small to offset the rapid increase of embodied carbon emission resulting from the effects of scale.
Finally, based on the results of analysis, the paper proposed a new strategic thinking about China's export trade developing in the direction towards low -carbon,and it carried some relevant policies and proposals about how to make China's export trade developing along the direction of low-carbon way from three aspects, that is national level、industry level and enterprise level.
引文
1 资料来源：中华人民共和国气候变化初始国家信息通报2004
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[46]李国柱.外商直接投资与环境污染的因果关系检验[J].国贸易问题,2007(6)：105-109
[47]杨万平,袁晓玲.对外贸易、FDI对环境污染的影响分析——基于中国时间序列的脉冲响应函数分析[J].国际贸易问题,2008(12)：62-68
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[1]Hakan Nordstrom, Scott Vaughan. Trade and Environment[M]. Geneva:WTO Publications,1999
[2]Ravishankar Jayadevappa, Sumedha Chhatre. International trade and environmental quality:a survey[J].Ecological Economics,2000,32(2):175-194
[3]Nemat Shafik, Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay. Economic growth and environmental quality:time series and cross-country evidence[J]. Oxford Economic Papers, 1994,46:757-773
[4]Werner Antweiler. The pollution terms of trade [J]. Economic Systems Research, 1996,8(4):361-365
[5]Robert H Williams, Eric D Larson, Marc H Ross. Materials, affluence, and industrial energy use[J]. Annual Review of Energy,1987,12:99-144
[6]Richard B Howarth, Lee Schipper, Peter A Duerr, et al. Manufacturing energy use in eight OECD countries:decomposing the impacts of changes in output, industry structure and energy intensity [J]. Energy Economics,1991, 13(2):135-142
[7]Se-Hark Park, Walter C Labys. Divergences in manufacturing energy consumption between the North and the South[J]. Energy Policy,1994,22(6):455-469
[8]Gene M Grossman, Alan B Krueger. Economic growth and the environment[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(2):353-377
[9]Yujiro Hayami. Development Economics:From the Poverty to the Wealth of Nations[M]. Oxford, NewYork:Clarendon Press,1997
[10]Viek Suri, Duane Chapman. Economic growth. trade and energy:implications for the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Ecological Economics,1998,25(2):195-208
[11]John L R Proops, Giles Atkinson, Burkhard F V Schlotheim, et al. International trade and the sustainability footprint:a practical criterion for its assessment[J]. Ecological Economics,1999,28(1):75-97
[12]Luiz P Rosa, Mauricio T Tolmasqui. Analytical model to compare energy efficiency indexes and CO2 emissions in developed and developing countries[J]. Energy Policy,1993,21(3):276-283
[13]Ernst Worrell, Lynn Price, Nathan Martin, et al. Energy intensity in the iron and steel industry:a comparison of physical and economic indicators [J]. Energy Policy,1997,25(7-9):727-744
[14]Mauricio T Tolmasquim, Giovani Machado. Energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of Brazil[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2003,8(2):139-155
[15]Soomyananda Dinda. Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis:a survey[J]. Ecological Economics,2004,49(4):431-455
[16]Brown M T. Herendeen R A Embodied Energy Analysis and Energy Analysis:a Comparative View 1996(3)
[17]Odum H T systems Ecology:An Introduction 1983
[18]Allan J A Virtual Water:a Long Term Solution for Water, Short Middle Eastern Economics? 1997
[19]杨开忠、杨咏、陈洁：生态足迹分析理论与方法[期刊论文]-地球科学进展2000(6)
[20]Shui B. Harriss R C The Rrole of CO2 Embodiment in US-China Trade.2006(34)
[21]周志田.杨多贵虚拟能—解析中国能源消费超常规增长的新视角[期刊论文]-地球科学进展2006(3)
[22]刘峰.中国进出口贸易能源消耗问题的研究2007
[23]Tolmasquim M T. Machado G Energy and Carbon Embodied in the International Trade of Brazil 2003(8)
[24]Ahmad N. Wyckoff A W Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods 2003
[25]Peters G P. Hertwich E G Pollution Embodied in Trade:The Norwegian Case 2006(4)
[26]Manfred Lenzen. Primary Energy and Greenhouse Gases Embodied in Australian Final Consumption:an Inputoutput Analysis 1998(6)
[27]Kondo Y. Moriguchi Y. Shimizu H CO2 Emissions in Janpan:Influences of Import and Export 1998(59)
[28]Bastianoi. The problem of assingning resbonsibility for greenhouse gas emissions Ecological Economics[J].2004(49):253-257
[29]刘强、庄幸、姜克隽等.中国出口贸易中的载能量及碳排放量分析.中国工业经济,2008(8)：46-55
[30]Ackerman F, lshikawa M, Suga M The Carbon Content of Japan-US Trade [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(9):4455-4462
[31]Ipek GS, Turut, E CO2 emissions vs. CO2 responsibility:An input-output approach for the Turkish economy[J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(2):885-868
[32]Sanchez C J, Duarte R CO2Emissions Embodied in International Trade:Evidence for Spain[J]. Energy Policy,2004,32(18):1999-2005
[33]Andrew W Wyckoff, Joseph M Roop.The embodiment of carbon in imports of manufactured products:implications for international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions [J]. Energy Policy,1994,22(3):187-194
[34]Nadim Ahmad, Andrew W Wyckoff. Carbon dioxide emissions embodied in international trade of goods[EB/OL],2009-04-15
[35]Nakano S A, Okarnura N. The measurement of CO2 embodiments in international trade:evidence from the harmonised input-output and bilateral trade database[R]. STI Working Paper 2009(3),OECD,Paris
[36]Roberto Schaeffer, Andre Leal de Sd. The embodiment of carbon associated with Brazilian imports and exports[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,1996, 37(6-8):955-960
[37]Mauricio T Tolmasquim, Giovani Machado. Energy and carbon embodied in the international trade of Brazil [J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,2003,8(2):139-155
[38]Mongelli I, Tassielle G.,Notarnicola B. Global warming agreements, international trad and energy/carbon embodiments:an input-output approach to the Italian case[J]. Energy Poliey,2006,34:88-100.
[39]Julio Sa nchez-Cho liz, Rosa Duarte. CO2 emissions embodied in international trade:evidence for Spain[J]. Energy Policy,2004,32(18):1999-2005
[40]Kndera A., Lindmark M. Foreign trade and declining pollution in sweden:a decomposition analysis of long-term struetural and technological effeets[J]. Energy Poliey,2006(34):1590-1599
[41]Wiedmann T. Development of an Embadded Carbon Emissions Indicator-Producing a Time Series of Input-Output Tables and Embedded Carbon Dioxide Emissions for the UK by Using a MR1O Data Optimisation System[R]. DEFRA. London,2008
[42]Peters G P, Hertwiseh E G, CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy [J]. Environmental Science& Technology.2008,42(2): 1401-1407
[43]赵景峰,张榆.国际贸易与环境关系研究新进展[J].经济学动态,2006(6)：114-118
[44]李秀香,张婷.出口增长对我国环境影响的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题, 2004(7)：9-12
[45]邓柏盛,宋德勇.我国对外贸易、FDI与环境污染之间关系研究[J].国际贸易问题,2008(4)：101-108
[46]李国柱.外商直接投资与环境污染的因果关系检验[J].国贸易问题,2007(6)：105-109
[47]杨万平,袁晓玲.对外贸易、FDI对环境污染的影响分析——基于中国时间序列的脉冲响应函数分析[J].国际贸易问题,2008(12)：62-68
[48]朱启荣.能源消费与出口贸易的协整及Granger因果关系检验—以山东省为例[J].国际经贸探索,2007a(4)：9-12
[49]董斌吕,杜希垚.中国能源消费与出口贸易之间关系的实证研究[J].广西财经学院学报,2006,19(5)：98-100
[50]吴国兵.中国能源消费与出口贸易的协整分析.金融经济(理论版),2008(3)
[51]马涛.中国对外贸易中的生态要素流分析-从生态经济学视角看贸易与环境问题.2007
[52]马涛,陈家宽.中国工业产品国际贸易的污染足迹分析[J].中国环境科学,2005,25(4)：508-512
[53]魏本勇,方修琦,王嫒,等.基于投入产出分析的中国国际贸易碳排放研究[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009,45(4)：413-419.
[54]齐哗,李惠民,徐明.中国进出口贸易中的隐含碳估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3)：8-13
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