长江下游河段水位预报模型研究
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摘要
分析当前长江下游河段地区洪水的危害性、防洪的重要性及该河段水位预报的主要问题和困难，论文研究了河道洪水演算模型：基于完全圣维南方程组、利用四点线性隐格式离散，根据长江下游地形以及地理位置的情况，引入反分析法模拟支流流量，建立一维水动力学模型。经过实例验证，表明了模型能够模拟长江下游河系的实际流态，具有一定的精度，可以应用于水位预报。
研究了感潮河段一维水动力学模型中的下边界条件的预报问题，根据感潮河段的水位影响因素，用考虑日平均水位的调和分析法预报下边界条件，并尝试用同样的方法预报感潮河段控制站的水位。经计算验证，预报精度能够满足洪水预报的要求。
分析将一维水动力学模型和调和分析算法在长江下游河段的应用。比较它们的结果。显示一维水动力学模型较好，模型可以包含实时校正的过程，具有很好的实用价值，调和分析算法对具有长期水位观测资料的控制站，预报水位具有一定的精度，它为缺少断面资料感潮河段的水位预报探索一条新途径。
To analysis damages of flood in current downstream of Changjiang River, the importance of the flood control, the key problems and the difficulties of water level forecasting in the reaches, the paper studied models for channel flood routing: to base on St.Venant equations and be solved with four-point linear implicit schemes, according to terrain as well as geography position is considered, to introduce the reverse direction of analytical method to simulate flux of every branch, and then one-dimensional hydrodynamic model is constituted. The validation result shows that with this method can simulate practicable flow pattern and possess certain precision, and then it can be used to water level forecast.
Forecast of the lower boundary condition in tidal reach's one-dimensional hydrodynamic model is researched. According to influencing factor of tidal reach's water level, harmonic analysis is used to forecast the lower boundary condition, which has thought over daily mean water level. The validation result shows that precision of prediction can satisfy flood forecast's demand.
The application of the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model and harmonious analysis method in Changjiang River is analyzed, the results of which are then compared. The result shows that one-dimensional hydrodynamic model is preferable. At one time, the model contains real time correction, so that it is banausic. Harmonious analysis method is used to forecast key station of long-time water data, and it can ascertain definite precision of forecasted. It present a method for water regime predictions if tidal rivers in defect of cross-section.
研究了感潮河段一维水动力学模型中的下边界条件的预报问题，根据感潮河段的水位影响因素，用考虑日平均水位的调和分析法预报下边界条件，并尝试用同样的方法预报感潮河段控制站的水位。经计算验证，预报精度能够满足洪水预报的要求。
分析将一维水动力学模型和调和分析算法在长江下游河段的应用。比较它们的结果。显示一维水动力学模型较好，模型可以包含实时校正的过程，具有很好的实用价值，调和分析算法对具有长期水位观测资料的控制站，预报水位具有一定的精度，它为缺少断面资料感潮河段的水位预报探索一条新途径。
To analysis damages of flood in current downstream of Changjiang River, the importance of the flood control, the key problems and the difficulties of water level forecasting in the reaches, the paper studied models for channel flood routing: to base on St.Venant equations and be solved with four-point linear implicit schemes, according to terrain as well as geography position is considered, to introduce the reverse direction of analytical method to simulate flux of every branch, and then one-dimensional hydrodynamic model is constituted. The validation result shows that with this method can simulate practicable flow pattern and possess certain precision, and then it can be used to water level forecast.
Forecast of the lower boundary condition in tidal reach's one-dimensional hydrodynamic model is researched. According to influencing factor of tidal reach's water level, harmonic analysis is used to forecast the lower boundary condition, which has thought over daily mean water level. The validation result shows that precision of prediction can satisfy flood forecast's demand.
The application of the one-dimensional hydrodynamic model and harmonious analysis method in Changjiang River is analyzed, the results of which are then compared. The result shows that one-dimensional hydrodynamic model is preferable. At one time, the model contains real time correction, so that it is banausic. Harmonious analysis method is used to forecast key station of long-time water data, and it can ascertain definite precision of forecasted. It present a method for water regime predictions if tidal rivers in defect of cross-section.
引文
[1] 李光炽．流域洪水演进模型及其参数反问题研究[D]．中国南京：河海大学博士研究生毕业论文，2001：69-71．
[2] Sobey, Rodeny J. Analytical solutions for flood and tide codes (Dept.of Civil and Environ. Eng., University of California) Source:Coastal Engineering,journal, v44, n1, March, 2002, p 25-51.
[3] 方国洪，曹德明等，南海潮汐潮流的数值模拟，海洋学报，1994，16(4)．
[4] 吴昕．一维非恒定流谁知模型在曹娥江的应用．中国南京：河海大学硕士研究生毕业论文，2006．3．
[5] Collier, Courtland A. Willimas, James R. Jr. OPTIMUM FLOOR ELEVATION IN STORM TIDE FLOOD ZONES. Source:,journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean 6ngzneering, v 109, n 1, Feb, 1983, p 41-53.
[6] 张素亭，李致家．试析卡尔曼滤波与水力学相结合在洪水实时预报中的应用．河海水利，2002(1)．
[7] Massau, J.; Memoire sur I'integration graphique des equations aux derives pertielles, Annales des I'Association des Ingenieurs sortis des Ecoles speeiaies de Gand, Tome 23. 1900.
[8] Re,R.Etude du lacher instantane d'une retenue d'eau dans uncanal parla methode graphique, La Houille Blanche, n. 3, Mail 1946.
[9] Graya, a. Calcul Graphique des regimes variables dans les canaux. La Houille Blanche, N.1, Nov. 1945.
[10] 林秉南．林秉南论文选集．北京：中国水利水电出版社，2000．9．
[11] GrafWH，AltinakarMS．河川水力学[M]．赵文谦，万兆惠译，成都：成都科技大学出版社，1997．
[12] 谢鉴衡主编．河流模拟[M]．北京：水利电力出版社，1990．．
[13] 郑邦民，槐文信，齐鄂荣编著．洪水水力学[M]．武汉：湖北科学技术出版 社，2000．．
[14] 郑邦民，赵昕编著．计算水动力学[M]．武汉：武汉大学出版社，2001．
[15] 谭维炎著．计算浅水动力学——有限体积法的应用[M]．北京：清华大学出版社，1998．
[16] 李艳红，周华君，时钟．山区河流平面二维流场的数值模拟[J]．水科学进展，2003(3)．
[17] 王嘉松，倪汉根，金生．二维溃坝波传播和绕流特性的高精度数值模拟[J]，水利学报．1998(10)．
[18] 潘存鸿，林炳尧，毛献众．一维浅水流动方程的Godunov格式求解[J]．水科学进展，2003(4)．
[19] 诸裕良，严以新，贾良文，等．一维河网非恒定流及悬沙数学模型的节点控制方法[J]．水动力学研究与进展，A辑，2001(4)．
[20] Cung J A,et al. Practical Aspects of Computational River Hydraulics, Pitman Advanced Publishing Programonal River Hydraulics. Pitman Advanced Publishing Program,1982,20—50.
[21] Shiono K. and Knight D, W., Turbulent Open-Channel Flows with Variable Depth across the Channel. J. Fluid Mech., Vol. 222, 1991..
[22] K. Mahmood and V. Yevjevichm, UNSTEADY FLOW IN OPEN CHANNELS Water Resources Publications, P. O. Box 303, Fort Collins, COLLINS. Colorado 80522 Resources, USA, 1975.
[23] Naidu B J,Murty Bhallamudi S, and Narasimhan S,GVF Computation in tree-type channel Networks. J. Hydr Engrg, 1997, (8):700-708.
[24] Chen Y, Falconer R A. Modified forms of the third-order convection second-order diffusion scheme for the advection-diffusion equation.Advances in Water Resources. 1994. (17):147-170..
[25] [美]J．J．康纳著 吴望一译 流体流动的有限元法，科学出版社，1981．
[26] Bella, D. A. and W. J. Grenney, Finite-Difference Convection Errors. Journal of the Sanitary Eng. Division, ASCE, Vol. 96, No. SA6, 1970, pp. 1361—1375.
[27] Diersch H-J G.Interactive,graphics-based finite-element simulation system, FEFLOW user's Manual Version 4.5, April 1996,3.1—3～68.
[28] Masters I, Usmani A S, Cross J T, et al. Finite element analysis of solidification using object-oriented and parallel techniques. Int J for Numerical Method in Engin, 1997, 40:2891—2909.
[29] 谭维炎，计算浅水动力学——有限体积法的应用，清华大学出版社，1998．4．
[30] 赵棣华等，平曲二维水流一水质有限体积法及黎曼近似解模型，水科学进展2000．12．
[31] Tan weiyan, Shallow Water Hydrodynamics, Water&Power press Beijing, China, Elsevier A msterdam, 1992.
[32] 王船海、李光炽．实用河网水流计算[M]．河海大学水资源水文系，2003．9．
[33] 梁国亭，高懿堂，梁跃平，等．非恒定流泥沙数学模型原理及其应用[J]．泥沙研究，1999(4)．
[34] 白玉川，万艳春，黄本胜，等．河网非恒定流数值模拟的研究进展[J]．水利学报，2000(12)．
[35] 拾兵，张万顺．明渠非恒定流的数值计算[J]．兰州铁道学院学报，1994(3)．
[36] 李艳红，周华君，时钟．山区河流平面二维流场的数值模拟[J]．水科学进展，2003(3)．
[37] 张丽，南京站潮位实时预报系统研究，南京：河海大学硕士学位论文，2001．6．
[38] 胡四一，宋德敦等，长江防洪决策支持系统总体设计，水科学进展，1996．12(4)：283-294．
[39] 包为民，卞毓明．感潮河段水位演算模型研究．水利学报，1997(11)．
[40] 汪德灌．计算水力学理论与应用．河海大学出版社．1989．
[41] Glamore,William,Indraratna,A two-stage decision support tool for restoring tidal flows to flood mitigation drains affected by acid sulfate soil:Case study of Broughton Creek floodplain,New South Wales,Australia, Source:Australian,journal of Sozl Research, v 42,n 5-6, 2004, p 639-648.
[42] Azam, Mir Hammadul, Effect of cyclone track and landfall angle on the magnitude of storm surges along the coast of Bangladesh in the Northern Bay of Bengal, Source: Coastal Englneerzng_journal, v 46, n 3, September, 2004, p 269-290.
[43] 高似春，陈惠源等，长江防洪系统联合调度研究，武汉水利电力大学学报．1998，(8)：64-}-67
[44] 黄志中，周之豪，水库群防洪调度的大系统多目标决策模型研究，水电能源科学，1994，(12)：237-v246
[45] 黄祖珂 黄磊，潮汐原理与计算[M]．中国海洋大学出版社．2005．3：21
[46] 朱琰．太湖流域实时洪水预报调度系统研究[D]．南京：河海大学博士毕业论文．32-39
[47] Vongvisessomjai,Suphat.Interaction of tide and river flow, Source:Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, v 115,n1, Jan, 1989, p 86-104.
[48] Sobey, R.J.Evaluation of numerical models of flood and tide propagation in channels, Source:,journal of Hydraullc Engineering, v 127, n 10, October, 2001, p 805-824.
[49] Marche, C. Tides effects on the dam break flood wave, Source:Proc 1989 Na t1 Conf Hydraulic 1989, p 1194-1199.
[50] 操建峰．布吉河潮水位变化与防洪调度研究[D]．武汉：武汉大学硕士研究生毕业论文，2005：20-23．
[51] Prandle, D. How tides and river flows determine estuarine bathymetries, Source:Progress in Oceanography, v 61, n 1, April, 2004, p 1-26.
[52] 水利部水利信息中心。水文情报预报规范[M]．北京：中国水利水电出版社，2000，8．
[2] Sobey, Rodeny J. Analytical solutions for flood and tide codes (Dept.of Civil and Environ. Eng., University of California) Source:Coastal Engineering,journal, v44, n1, March, 2002, p 25-51.
[3] 方国洪，曹德明等，南海潮汐潮流的数值模拟，海洋学报，1994，16(4)．
[4] 吴昕．一维非恒定流谁知模型在曹娥江的应用．中国南京：河海大学硕士研究生毕业论文，2006．3．
[5] Collier, Courtland A. Willimas, James R. Jr. OPTIMUM FLOOR ELEVATION IN STORM TIDE FLOOD ZONES. Source:,journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean 6ngzneering, v 109, n 1, Feb, 1983, p 41-53.
[6] 张素亭，李致家．试析卡尔曼滤波与水力学相结合在洪水实时预报中的应用．河海水利，2002(1)．
[7] Massau, J.; Memoire sur I'integration graphique des equations aux derives pertielles, Annales des I'Association des Ingenieurs sortis des Ecoles speeiaies de Gand, Tome 23. 1900.
[8] Re,R.Etude du lacher instantane d'une retenue d'eau dans uncanal parla methode graphique, La Houille Blanche, n. 3, Mail 1946.
[9] Graya, a. Calcul Graphique des regimes variables dans les canaux. La Houille Blanche, N.1, Nov. 1945.
[10] 林秉南．林秉南论文选集．北京：中国水利水电出版社，2000．9．
[11] GrafWH，AltinakarMS．河川水力学[M]．赵文谦，万兆惠译，成都：成都科技大学出版社，1997．
[12] 谢鉴衡主编．河流模拟[M]．北京：水利电力出版社，1990．．
[13] 郑邦民，槐文信，齐鄂荣编著．洪水水力学[M]．武汉：湖北科学技术出版 社，2000．．
[14] 郑邦民，赵昕编著．计算水动力学[M]．武汉：武汉大学出版社，2001．
[15] 谭维炎著．计算浅水动力学——有限体积法的应用[M]．北京：清华大学出版社，1998．
[16] 李艳红，周华君，时钟．山区河流平面二维流场的数值模拟[J]．水科学进展，2003(3)．
[17] 王嘉松，倪汉根，金生．二维溃坝波传播和绕流特性的高精度数值模拟[J]，水利学报．1998(10)．
[18] 潘存鸿，林炳尧，毛献众．一维浅水流动方程的Godunov格式求解[J]．水科学进展，2003(4)．
[19] 诸裕良，严以新，贾良文，等．一维河网非恒定流及悬沙数学模型的节点控制方法[J]．水动力学研究与进展，A辑，2001(4)．
[20] Cung J A,et al. Practical Aspects of Computational River Hydraulics, Pitman Advanced Publishing Programonal River Hydraulics. Pitman Advanced Publishing Program,1982,20—50.
[21] Shiono K. and Knight D, W., Turbulent Open-Channel Flows with Variable Depth across the Channel. J. Fluid Mech., Vol. 222, 1991..
[22] K. Mahmood and V. Yevjevichm, UNSTEADY FLOW IN OPEN CHANNELS Water Resources Publications, P. O. Box 303, Fort Collins, COLLINS. Colorado 80522 Resources, USA, 1975.
[23] Naidu B J,Murty Bhallamudi S, and Narasimhan S,GVF Computation in tree-type channel Networks. J. Hydr Engrg, 1997, (8):700-708.
[24] Chen Y, Falconer R A. Modified forms of the third-order convection second-order diffusion scheme for the advection-diffusion equation.Advances in Water Resources. 1994. (17):147-170..
[25] [美]J．J．康纳著 吴望一译 流体流动的有限元法，科学出版社，1981．
[26] Bella, D. A. and W. J. Grenney, Finite-Difference Convection Errors. Journal of the Sanitary Eng. Division, ASCE, Vol. 96, No. SA6, 1970, pp. 1361—1375.
[27] Diersch H-J G.Interactive,graphics-based finite-element simulation system, FEFLOW user's Manual Version 4.5, April 1996,3.1—3～68.
[28] Masters I, Usmani A S, Cross J T, et al. Finite element analysis of solidification using object-oriented and parallel techniques. Int J for Numerical Method in Engin, 1997, 40:2891—2909.
[29] 谭维炎，计算浅水动力学——有限体积法的应用，清华大学出版社，1998．4．
[30] 赵棣华等，平曲二维水流一水质有限体积法及黎曼近似解模型，水科学进展2000．12．
[31] Tan weiyan, Shallow Water Hydrodynamics, Water&Power press Beijing, China, Elsevier A msterdam, 1992.
[32] 王船海、李光炽．实用河网水流计算[M]．河海大学水资源水文系，2003．9．
[33] 梁国亭，高懿堂，梁跃平，等．非恒定流泥沙数学模型原理及其应用[J]．泥沙研究，1999(4)．
[34] 白玉川，万艳春，黄本胜，等．河网非恒定流数值模拟的研究进展[J]．水利学报，2000(12)．
[35] 拾兵，张万顺．明渠非恒定流的数值计算[J]．兰州铁道学院学报，1994(3)．
[36] 李艳红，周华君，时钟．山区河流平面二维流场的数值模拟[J]．水科学进展，2003(3)．
[37] 张丽，南京站潮位实时预报系统研究，南京：河海大学硕士学位论文，2001．6．
[38] 胡四一，宋德敦等，长江防洪决策支持系统总体设计，水科学进展，1996．12(4)：283-294．
[39] 包为民，卞毓明．感潮河段水位演算模型研究．水利学报，1997(11)．
[40] 汪德灌．计算水力学理论与应用．河海大学出版社．1989．
[41] Glamore,William,Indraratna,A two-stage decision support tool for restoring tidal flows to flood mitigation drains affected by acid sulfate soil:Case study of Broughton Creek floodplain,New South Wales,Australia, Source:Australian,journal of Sozl Research, v 42,n 5-6, 2004, p 639-648.
[42] Azam, Mir Hammadul, Effect of cyclone track and landfall angle on the magnitude of storm surges along the coast of Bangladesh in the Northern Bay of Bengal, Source: Coastal Englneerzng_journal, v 46, n 3, September, 2004, p 269-290.
[43] 高似春，陈惠源等，长江防洪系统联合调度研究，武汉水利电力大学学报．1998，(8)：64-}-67
[44] 黄志中，周之豪，水库群防洪调度的大系统多目标决策模型研究，水电能源科学，1994，(12)：237-v246
[45] 黄祖珂 黄磊，潮汐原理与计算[M]．中国海洋大学出版社．2005．3：21
[46] 朱琰．太湖流域实时洪水预报调度系统研究[D]．南京：河海大学博士毕业论文．32-39
[47] Vongvisessomjai,Suphat.Interaction of tide and river flow, Source:Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, v 115,n1, Jan, 1989, p 86-104.
[48] Sobey, R.J.Evaluation of numerical models of flood and tide propagation in channels, Source:,journal of Hydraullc Engineering, v 127, n 10, October, 2001, p 805-824.
[49] Marche, C. Tides effects on the dam break flood wave, Source:Proc 1989 Na t1 Conf Hydraulic 1989, p 1194-1199.
[50] 操建峰．布吉河潮水位变化与防洪调度研究[D]．武汉：武汉大学硕士研究生毕业论文，2005：20-23．
[51] Prandle, D. How tides and river flows determine estuarine bathymetries, Source:Progress in Oceanography, v 61, n 1, April, 2004, p 1-26.
[52] 水利部水利信息中心。水文情报预报规范[M]．北京：中国水利水电出版社，2000，8．