物流企业风险评价及对策研究
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摘要
目前,物流产业在我国获得了长足的发展,但是随着物流环境的日趋复杂化与竞争的日益激烈,物流企业在经营的过程中面临的风险因素也日益增加,已经成为企业进一步发展壮大的主要障碍之一。物流作为高速发展的新型行业和一项庞大的系统工程,其行业特点、发展趋势决定了物流行业较一般行业的风险种类更多、影响更大。采用科学的方法对物流企业风险进行综合评价,可为物流企业的决策者提供科学的依据。对于不可避免的风险,根据企业自身的承受能力和风险对应的收益进行取舍,可以为物流企业及企业所处的整个供应链的风险管理奠定基础,提高物流企业竞争力。然而,我国目前对物流企业风险管理的研究处于初级阶段,对于物流企业风险缺乏全面的认识,尚未形成有效的风险管理机制。因此对物流企业进行风险评价并提出应对措施,具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。
本文首先从第三方物流企业及其风险的含义入手,介绍了物流企业风险的基本理论,包括风险的成因、特征及运动形式,接着在对物流企业风险系统进行深入而细致地调查研究的基础上,通过广泛征求专家学者的意见,针对评价对象的风险状况,从财务、环境、管理和能力四个方面构建了风险评价指标体系,并且考虑物流行业的特点,运用DHGF综合评价理论,建立了完整的物流企业风险评价模型。然后,分析和比较各种常用指标权重确定方法的优劣性,结合层次分析法和熵值法的各自优点,用主客观相结合的方法确定指标的权重,根据所得到数据资料,并结合实例加以验证。最后研究了第三方物流企业的风险控制问题,对不同风险提出了分类控制方法和控制措施。
本文的研究成果,可以使物流企业的经营管理、财务等部门方便的了解目前公司经营风险的总体状况,可使公司的领导们从宏观上掌握公司风险情况,对影响风险的敏感因素进行管理调控。通过对经营风险的趋势分析,可使主管部门从宏观上了解公司的趋势走向,从而建立预防对策,防患于未然,减少风险事故的发生,减少财产损失,建立一个更安全可靠的物流风险管理系统。
At present, the logistics industry in China had grown by leaps and bounds, but with the increasing complexity of the environment and increasingly fierce competition, logistics corporations are confronted with stronger risks, which have become the chief obstacle of a enterprise in further development. The rapid development of logistics as a new type of industry and a huge systematic project, due to the characteristics of the industry, development trend of the logistics industry will be even more types of the risks and greater impact than ordinary industry. It is very important for decision-makers to adopt a scientific approach to evaluate the risk of the logistics enterprise to provide a scientific basis. The inevitable risks, should be made corresponding trade-off according to its own business and risk tolerance, which can lay the foundation to improve the competitiveness of logistics enterprises for the entire supply chain risk management. However, the research on the logistics enterprise risk management is at an early stage now, lack of a comprehensive logistics business risk awareness and yet not to form an effective risk management mechanism. Therefore, making risk assessment and taking corresponding measures of logistics enterprises is of greatly theoretical and practical significance.
This dissertation begins with the meaning of third-party logistics business and the risk, then introduces the basic theory of enterprise risk, including the risk of the causes, characteristics and forms of movement. What is more, extensive consultations with experts and scholars are collected on the basis of detailed investigation and in-depth research for enterprise risk system evaluation. In the light of a financial, environmental, managementable and endurable factors, the dissertation builds risk evaluation index system. Then taking into account the characteristics of the logistics industry, the use of DHGF which is comprehensive theory of the evaluation establishes the risk assessment model of logistics enterprises. Then, analysis and comparison of different indicators used to determine the weight the pros and cons of methods, combined with AHP and entropy of the respective advantages of using a combination of subjective and objective indicators to determine the weight, according to the received data combined with Examples of the test. Finally, risk control issues in third-party logistics enterprise, are proposed according to different classification of risk using the different risk control methods and control measures.
In this paper, research results can help departments facilitate the understanding of the company's overall business risk and can make the company's leaders know risk from the macro-control of the company ,then to control and manage the sensitive risk factors . Through trend analysis of the operational risks, it will enable the manager in the department in charge of the macro level and to understand the company's risk trend, so as to establish the preventable measures to prevent and reduce the risk accidents, to reduce property losses, and to build a more secure and reliable logistics risk management System.
本文首先从第三方物流企业及其风险的含义入手,介绍了物流企业风险的基本理论,包括风险的成因、特征及运动形式,接着在对物流企业风险系统进行深入而细致地调查研究的基础上,通过广泛征求专家学者的意见,针对评价对象的风险状况,从财务、环境、管理和能力四个方面构建了风险评价指标体系,并且考虑物流行业的特点,运用DHGF综合评价理论,建立了完整的物流企业风险评价模型。然后,分析和比较各种常用指标权重确定方法的优劣性,结合层次分析法和熵值法的各自优点,用主客观相结合的方法确定指标的权重,根据所得到数据资料,并结合实例加以验证。最后研究了第三方物流企业的风险控制问题,对不同风险提出了分类控制方法和控制措施。
本文的研究成果,可以使物流企业的经营管理、财务等部门方便的了解目前公司经营风险的总体状况,可使公司的领导们从宏观上掌握公司风险情况,对影响风险的敏感因素进行管理调控。通过对经营风险的趋势分析,可使主管部门从宏观上了解公司的趋势走向,从而建立预防对策,防患于未然,减少风险事故的发生,减少财产损失,建立一个更安全可靠的物流风险管理系统。
At present, the logistics industry in China had grown by leaps and bounds, but with the increasing complexity of the environment and increasingly fierce competition, logistics corporations are confronted with stronger risks, which have become the chief obstacle of a enterprise in further development. The rapid development of logistics as a new type of industry and a huge systematic project, due to the characteristics of the industry, development trend of the logistics industry will be even more types of the risks and greater impact than ordinary industry. It is very important for decision-makers to adopt a scientific approach to evaluate the risk of the logistics enterprise to provide a scientific basis. The inevitable risks, should be made corresponding trade-off according to its own business and risk tolerance, which can lay the foundation to improve the competitiveness of logistics enterprises for the entire supply chain risk management. However, the research on the logistics enterprise risk management is at an early stage now, lack of a comprehensive logistics business risk awareness and yet not to form an effective risk management mechanism. Therefore, making risk assessment and taking corresponding measures of logistics enterprises is of greatly theoretical and practical significance.
This dissertation begins with the meaning of third-party logistics business and the risk, then introduces the basic theory of enterprise risk, including the risk of the causes, characteristics and forms of movement. What is more, extensive consultations with experts and scholars are collected on the basis of detailed investigation and in-depth research for enterprise risk system evaluation. In the light of a financial, environmental, managementable and endurable factors, the dissertation builds risk evaluation index system. Then taking into account the characteristics of the logistics industry, the use of DHGF which is comprehensive theory of the evaluation establishes the risk assessment model of logistics enterprises. Then, analysis and comparison of different indicators used to determine the weight the pros and cons of methods, combined with AHP and entropy of the respective advantages of using a combination of subjective and objective indicators to determine the weight, according to the received data combined with Examples of the test. Finally, risk control issues in third-party logistics enterprise, are proposed according to different classification of risk using the different risk control methods and control measures.
In this paper, research results can help departments facilitate the understanding of the company's overall business risk and can make the company's leaders know risk from the macro-control of the company ,then to control and manage the sensitive risk factors . Through trend analysis of the operational risks, it will enable the manager in the department in charge of the macro level and to understand the company's risk trend, so as to establish the preventable measures to prevent and reduce the risk accidents, to reduce property losses, and to build a more secure and reliable logistics risk management System.
引文
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[7]Timothy W Ruefli & James M Collies.Risk measures in strategic management research:auld lung svne[J].Strategic Management Journal,1999.(20):167- 194.
[8]Hillson,David.Extending the risk process to manage opportunities[J].International Journal of Project Management,2002,20(3):235- 245.
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[15]江忠等.国外风险管理研究的理论方法及其进展[J].外国经济与管理,2005.02:27-29
[16]丁蓉.虚拟物流企业风险管理研究:[硕士学位论文].大连:大连海事大学,2006
[17]汪传旭.第三方物流运作的风险分析及其防范措施[J].物流技术,2003(3)
[18]刘兴富.第三方物流运作中的风险与控制[J].中国物流与采购,2006(4)
[19]黄本笑,成祖好.论物流企业风险防范[J].商业时代,2003(18)
[20]郑静等.析物流企业风险及防范对策[J].商场现代化,2006.01:32-35
[21]唐光海等.网络时代物流企业的风险与防范[J].商场现代化,2007.10:12-14
[22]刘淑梅.中国第三方物流企业运作风险的经济学分析:[硕士学位论文].上海:上海海事大学,2004
[23]张宏雷等.简析企业财务风险管理的必要性[J].集团经济,2006.02
[24]温宏伟.物流企业风险的内涵分析及评价[J].物流科技,2007.12:8-9
[25]周慧玲.风险管理学[M].武汉:武汉测绘科技大学出版社,1998:248
[26]孟于群.论现代物流的风险[J].中国海商法年刊,2005(1)
[27]李俊军.物流服务过程中的风险防范问题浅探[J].商品储运与养护,2002(1)
[28]刘小群,赖益凝.供应链管理下物流外包的动因、风险及其规避[J].商业经济与管理,2004(3).
[29]许芳,徐国虎.物流业务外包企业的风险及其防范对策-基于委托代理的视角[J].商品储运与养护,2005(10)
[30]中风平,许正平.第三方物流企业道德风险规避探析[J].中国采购与运输,2006(1)
[31]邓金娥,周莞阳.我国第三方物流企业的风险与对策分析[J].物流技术,2005(7)
[32]王云山,吴文秀,张家美.略论第三方物流合作风险与风险防范[J].石油天然气学报(江汉石油学院学报),2005(6).
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[35]包建民.物流现代化[M].上海交通大学出版社,1999:56-86
[36]陈宝国,卢山.信息不对称条件下企业物流外包过程的风险和防范[J].中国安全科学学报,2004(1)
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