通货膨胀下公司的投融资行为研究
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摘要
结合宏观经济政策与波动的微观企业行为的研究是当前国内外经济学、管理学中开展得比较薄弱的领域。宏观经济政策是微观企业行为的大背景,而微观企业行为是宏观经济政策达成目标的途径和渠道,两者相结合的研究具有重要的理论与现实意义。因此在宏观经济政策和微观主体行为之间找到交叉点,并关注宏观经济变量背后的企业微观行为具有非常高的实践意义与学术价值。通货膨胀一直是政府制定宏观经济政策考虑的重要宏观经济指标之一,传统的宏观经济理论解释了国民生产总值、就业率与通货膨胀的关系,但这些宏观经济指标很难具体考察通货膨胀是如何微观企业的投资于融资行为。为了弥补现有理论的不足,本研究从理论和实证两个角度分析宏观经济中通货膨胀因素对微观企业产生影响。
首先提出了通货膨胀下的公司投资模型。在分析通货膨胀如何影响公司投资决策各种因素的基础上,利用实物期权理论作为基本理论框架,得到了公司最优投资决策下,通货膨胀对公司投资行为的影响。并将所得税因素融入到最优投资模型中,分析所得税的变动对公司投资行为的影响。进一步,我们研究了恶性通胀情况下公司投资决策过程,将其与温和通胀情况下公司投资行为进行比较,分析不同通胀状态下,公司投资行为的异同。理论模型结果表明：通货膨胀的上涨会抑制公司的投资行为,预期恶性通胀发生频率和发生程度的增加也会对投资起到抑制作用。
接下来,本文根据投资决策模型的结论,利用我国上市公司的实际数据对结论的适用性进行了实证检验。结合我国通货膨胀的时间序列图,简要的对我国通货膨胀的历史过程进行简要的描述。根据研究需要,从我国上市公司历年数据中选择合适的实证样本,确定了解释变量和被解释变量的财务指标以及需要检验的实证方程。以2008年我国公司所得税变动事件作为分界点,分别研究了变动前和变动后,通货膨胀以及其他因素对公司投资行为的影响；考察了通货膨胀如何通过所得税税率的变动影响公司投资行为。最后以民营上市公司作为特殊的研究对象,分析了通货膨胀对民营企业投资行为的影响,比较了民营企业投资行为在通货膨胀情况下与全体上市公司的不同。实证结果表明：无论以固定资产账面价值增加还是以购入固定资产净现金流量支出作为固定资产投资的指标,公司主体无论是民营企业还是全体上市公司,公司固定资产投资的增加与通货膨胀率呈显著负相关关系,与所得税率也呈负相关关系。该结论符合我们提出的理论预测,检验了理论的有效性。
进一步,我们分析了通货膨胀对公司融资行为的影响。投资项目所需资金除了来自于公司法人通过自身经营积累的利润外,还可从企业外部渠道获得,如增加公司负债或股权融资等。但融资是有成本的,不同融资方式的成本也不相同。因此公司在为投资进行融资时,必须解决两方面问题：是否需要融资以及如何融资是最优的。为了回答这两个问题,我们借助了资本结构理论主要观点,构建了统一的公司投融资模型,得到了市场均衡条件下,公司最优融资行为和最优资本结构。对理论模型的静态比较分析发现,通货膨胀率的上升会提高公司资产负债率的水平；公司所得税税率的增加会减少公司的资本负债率。
为了验证融资模型理论的适用性,我们同样以2008年公司所得税变动事件作为分界点,对上述理论进行实证检验。利用我国上市公司的数据,分别研究了所得税变动前后,通货膨胀会同其他因素对公司融资行为和资本结构的影响。进一步,从负债融资对公司治理影响角度出发,以我国民营上市公司为研究对象,着重分析了通货膨胀对民营企业融资行为的影响,并分析民营企业融资行为与其他企业的不同。实证结果表明：通货膨胀率上升会抑制公司融资行为,但会提高公司的资产负债率水平；所得税税率的上升也会抑制公司的融资行为,但是会降低公司的资产负债率水平。这与我们理论模型的结论是一致的。
将投资和融资所得到的结果综合在一起,我们发现,当通货膨胀上升时,公司投资行为减少的同时融资行为也相应减少,但是公司会增加自身的资产负债率水平。当所得税税率下降时,公司投资行为增加的同时融资行为也相应增加,也会增加公司的资产负债率水平。
Based the real options for the basic theoretical framework, this paper investigate that the inflation affect the various factors of company's investment decision, and then study the impact of inflation on the Company's investment behavior. At the meantime, put the Income tax considerations into investment decision-making and analysis of how income tax changes effect investment behavior. Based on the modeling of the company investment decisions in the case of moderate inflation, study the investment decision-making process in the case of hyperinflation. Analyse the different investment behaviors under the different inflation conditions. Find that rising inflation will inhibit the company's investment behavior, when hyperinflation is expected to increase in frequency and occurrence degree occurs, it will also inhibit the investment..
With the conclusions of the investment decision-making model, use the actual data of listed companies in China to do the empirical test. Firstly combine with our first inflation time series chart; briefly descript the historical process of China's inflation. Secondly select the appropriate samples from the listed companies, and determine the financial indicators of the explanatory variables and the explanatory variables. Use the change in China's corporate income tax as the cut-off point to study the effect of inflation and other factors to the company's investment behaviors. Then examine how changes in tax rates affect the investment behaviors. Finally, use the private enterprises as the research object, analyze the impact of inflation on the investment behaviors of private enterprises, and analyze the difference with other kinds of companies. Whether the carrying value of fixed assets increased or purchase of fixed assets Net cash outflow as the index of investment in fixed assets, whether private enterprises or other kinds of enterprises, the empirical results have confirmed the negative correlation between investment in fixed assets of the company and increase of inflation, as well as investment in fixed assets of the Company and the income tax rate.
Inflation also has an impact on corporate finance line. Not only the funds that accumulated in corporate operating, but also the cash from the external, e.g. liabilities, equity financing, can be used to investment. But there is cost for financing and the costs are different with different financing methods. It makes the company must solve two problems:the need for financing and how financing is optimal. By the capital structure point, construct a unified investment and financing model to get the optimal financing behavior and optimal capital structure. The analysis revealed that the rising of inflation will increase the level of the Company's asset-liability ratio; corporate income tax increase will reduce the company's gearing ratio.
Use the change in China's corporate income tax as the cut-off point, empirical test the theory, study the effect of inflation and other factors to the behavior of corporate finance and capital structure before changes and after changes. The rate of inflation, the rise in income tax rates will inhibit the behavior of corporate finance. The empirical study on the capital structure also confirms the conclusions of the model.
Finally, based on the perspective of corporate governance, use the private enterprise as the research object, analyse the impact of inflation on the financing behavior of private enterprises, and different with other companies.
首先提出了通货膨胀下的公司投资模型。在分析通货膨胀如何影响公司投资决策各种因素的基础上,利用实物期权理论作为基本理论框架,得到了公司最优投资决策下,通货膨胀对公司投资行为的影响。并将所得税因素融入到最优投资模型中,分析所得税的变动对公司投资行为的影响。进一步,我们研究了恶性通胀情况下公司投资决策过程,将其与温和通胀情况下公司投资行为进行比较,分析不同通胀状态下,公司投资行为的异同。理论模型结果表明：通货膨胀的上涨会抑制公司的投资行为,预期恶性通胀发生频率和发生程度的增加也会对投资起到抑制作用。
接下来,本文根据投资决策模型的结论,利用我国上市公司的实际数据对结论的适用性进行了实证检验。结合我国通货膨胀的时间序列图,简要的对我国通货膨胀的历史过程进行简要的描述。根据研究需要,从我国上市公司历年数据中选择合适的实证样本,确定了解释变量和被解释变量的财务指标以及需要检验的实证方程。以2008年我国公司所得税变动事件作为分界点,分别研究了变动前和变动后,通货膨胀以及其他因素对公司投资行为的影响；考察了通货膨胀如何通过所得税税率的变动影响公司投资行为。最后以民营上市公司作为特殊的研究对象,分析了通货膨胀对民营企业投资行为的影响,比较了民营企业投资行为在通货膨胀情况下与全体上市公司的不同。实证结果表明：无论以固定资产账面价值增加还是以购入固定资产净现金流量支出作为固定资产投资的指标,公司主体无论是民营企业还是全体上市公司,公司固定资产投资的增加与通货膨胀率呈显著负相关关系,与所得税率也呈负相关关系。该结论符合我们提出的理论预测,检验了理论的有效性。
进一步,我们分析了通货膨胀对公司融资行为的影响。投资项目所需资金除了来自于公司法人通过自身经营积累的利润外,还可从企业外部渠道获得,如增加公司负债或股权融资等。但融资是有成本的,不同融资方式的成本也不相同。因此公司在为投资进行融资时,必须解决两方面问题：是否需要融资以及如何融资是最优的。为了回答这两个问题,我们借助了资本结构理论主要观点,构建了统一的公司投融资模型,得到了市场均衡条件下,公司最优融资行为和最优资本结构。对理论模型的静态比较分析发现,通货膨胀率的上升会提高公司资产负债率的水平；公司所得税税率的增加会减少公司的资本负债率。
为了验证融资模型理论的适用性,我们同样以2008年公司所得税变动事件作为分界点,对上述理论进行实证检验。利用我国上市公司的数据,分别研究了所得税变动前后,通货膨胀会同其他因素对公司融资行为和资本结构的影响。进一步,从负债融资对公司治理影响角度出发,以我国民营上市公司为研究对象,着重分析了通货膨胀对民营企业融资行为的影响,并分析民营企业融资行为与其他企业的不同。实证结果表明：通货膨胀率上升会抑制公司融资行为,但会提高公司的资产负债率水平；所得税税率的上升也会抑制公司的融资行为,但是会降低公司的资产负债率水平。这与我们理论模型的结论是一致的。
将投资和融资所得到的结果综合在一起,我们发现,当通货膨胀上升时,公司投资行为减少的同时融资行为也相应减少,但是公司会增加自身的资产负债率水平。当所得税税率下降时,公司投资行为增加的同时融资行为也相应增加,也会增加公司的资产负债率水平。
Based the real options for the basic theoretical framework, this paper investigate that the inflation affect the various factors of company's investment decision, and then study the impact of inflation on the Company's investment behavior. At the meantime, put the Income tax considerations into investment decision-making and analysis of how income tax changes effect investment behavior. Based on the modeling of the company investment decisions in the case of moderate inflation, study the investment decision-making process in the case of hyperinflation. Analyse the different investment behaviors under the different inflation conditions. Find that rising inflation will inhibit the company's investment behavior, when hyperinflation is expected to increase in frequency and occurrence degree occurs, it will also inhibit the investment..
With the conclusions of the investment decision-making model, use the actual data of listed companies in China to do the empirical test. Firstly combine with our first inflation time series chart; briefly descript the historical process of China's inflation. Secondly select the appropriate samples from the listed companies, and determine the financial indicators of the explanatory variables and the explanatory variables. Use the change in China's corporate income tax as the cut-off point to study the effect of inflation and other factors to the company's investment behaviors. Then examine how changes in tax rates affect the investment behaviors. Finally, use the private enterprises as the research object, analyze the impact of inflation on the investment behaviors of private enterprises, and analyze the difference with other kinds of companies. Whether the carrying value of fixed assets increased or purchase of fixed assets Net cash outflow as the index of investment in fixed assets, whether private enterprises or other kinds of enterprises, the empirical results have confirmed the negative correlation between investment in fixed assets of the company and increase of inflation, as well as investment in fixed assets of the Company and the income tax rate.
Inflation also has an impact on corporate finance line. Not only the funds that accumulated in corporate operating, but also the cash from the external, e.g. liabilities, equity financing, can be used to investment. But there is cost for financing and the costs are different with different financing methods. It makes the company must solve two problems:the need for financing and how financing is optimal. By the capital structure point, construct a unified investment and financing model to get the optimal financing behavior and optimal capital structure. The analysis revealed that the rising of inflation will increase the level of the Company's asset-liability ratio; corporate income tax increase will reduce the company's gearing ratio.
Use the change in China's corporate income tax as the cut-off point, empirical test the theory, study the effect of inflation and other factors to the behavior of corporate finance and capital structure before changes and after changes. The rate of inflation, the rise in income tax rates will inhibit the behavior of corporate finance. The empirical study on the capital structure also confirms the conclusions of the model.
Finally, based on the perspective of corporate governance, use the private enterprise as the research object, analyse the impact of inflation on the financing behavior of private enterprises, and different with other companies.
引文
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