金融开放的风险及其经济增长效应研究
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摘要
金融作为现代经济的核心,在生产要素的优化配置中所起的关键作用更加凸显。在经济全球化和生产要素的全球配置背景下,进一步加快金融开放,融入金融全球化成为必然。中国金融开放同改革开放同时起步,算起来已有30多个年头。而中国金融开放的程度如何、金融开放与国内发展协调性怎么样、金融开放带来的风险有哪些,产生了什么影响怎样、金融开放在危机发生中角色是什么、金融开放对增长作用机制及效应如何、金融开放给金融监管带来的新挑战又是什么?这些问题的解答对中国及很多发展中国家的深化金融开放有着极其重要参考价值。鉴于此,本文在已有的研究成果基础上以金融开放带来的风险为主线,对与金融开放风险密切相关的金融开放水平测度和协调性、金融开放外源性风险、金融开放与金融危机、金融开放的增长效应、金融开放与金融监管等有关问题展开了研究,获得以下研究成果:
(1)本文从金融开放的内涵着手,构建了金融开放的体系结构,在这基础上提出了测算金融开放水平的公式,并进一步地对金融开放的协调性的涵义、测度和判断等问题进行了细致研究。选择包括中国在内的120个国家和地区作为样本进行实证分析,分析结果显示目前中国官方承诺的金融开放处于中度开放水平,现实金融开放水平明显要低于官方承诺水平。对中国金融开放的协调性研究表明中国在加入WTO后中国金融开放与国内发展不相协调且这种不协调的程度有加重的趋势,即相对于官方承诺的金融开放水平所要求的速度和质量,国内发展显得不足。而造成这一结果的原因在于中国采取的政府主导型的金融开放模式使得金融发展的市场机制在政府干预下遭到抑制,金融市场化发展不足,再加上中国实施的以利用外资实现技术溢出进而促进技术进步的金融开放战略,忽略了金融市场开放和资本与金融账户开放的互动性,进而导致国内金融市场深化发展相对缓慢,而开放过程中过重地追求“资本”却并没有真正带来技术创新上的突破,也导致了金融开放过程与开放战略目标的错位。这些弊端的共同作用下,使得在加入WTO后,国内发展尤其是金融发展相对于官方承诺金融开放水平所要求的速度和质量显得不足。
(2)本文在仔细梳理金融开放可能带来的外源性风险的基础,构建金融开放外源性风险指标体系,分别应用“3δ”原理、偏最小二乘法、神经网络模型评估金融开放风险、分析金融开放风险对经济金融稳定与安全影响和预测金融开放风险。选取26个世界主要发展中国家的相关数据进行实证分析,结果显示中国当前金融开放的风险级别处于安全状态。且对26个世界主要发展中国家金融开放外源性风险的评估、预警以及其对经济金融影响的结果,都与26个国家的实际十分吻合。这表明“3δ”原理和偏最小二乘法、神经网络模型在监测、分析和预警发展中国家金融开放外源性风险具有很强的实用性和可操作性,为建立金融开放外生源风险的评价机制,提高金融开放监管效率提供了方法依据。
(3)在金融开放的潜在国际收支风险研究方面,本文通过建立差分模型,考察伴随金融开放流入东道国的长期外商直接投资的行为变迁对其国际收支的影响。研究表明以占领东道国市场为目的长期外商直接投资将在长时期内不断削减长期外商直接投资产生的净出口效应,使东道国国际收支顺差不断减小,且随着寻求市场型长期外商直接投资存量占长期外商直接投资的比重不断增大,极有可能导致长期外商直接投资产生的国际收支净效益转为逆差,甚至引发国际收支危机。
(4)本文建立了一个包含政府补贴、外部冲击、国际利率变化及金融开放等因素在内的危机模型来考察金融开放在危机中的角色,模型分析表明政府主导下对产业发展的非TPF补贴在推动国内经济高速增长的同时,引致了过度投资并形成了资产泡沫;在不利外部冲击或国际利率变动的作用下,国内经济显得敏感而脆弱,金融开放将加剧这种脆弱性,并成为危机爆发的重要因素。模型认为导致危机的根本原因是政府主导下发展模型的缺陷。通过数值模拟和马来西亚的样本数据实证充分的验证了这一结论。这对中国金融开放、产业发展战略的选择有着重要的启示作用。
(5)本文基于内生经济增长理论框架,构建了一个金融开放对经济增长效应的分解模型,从收益与风险方面综合考察金融开放对经济增长的效应。并以中国金融开放的实践,对效应分解模型进行检验,结果表明,中国金融开放对经济增长的综合效应为正,但由于国内发展跟不上官方承诺开放水平的速度和质量,导致了现实开放水平下的增长效应要明显小于官方承诺开放水平下的效应,且现实开放水平下的效应有递减趋势。因此,如何加快经济金融改革促进国内发展以适应新形势开放的需要,是摆在中国金融开放面前的重大问题。
(6)出于对金融开放风险的防范考虑,本文还研究了金融开放的国家宏观审慎监管构建问题,明确金融开放对发展中国家金融监管带来挑战,提出了发展中国家须要建立宏观审慎监管机制。同时,本文还结合中国的实际,认为中国应成立一个由国务院分管领导任主席的专门的跨部门的金融监管协调委员会,承担宏观审慎监管的职能,并提出了如何根据中国金融系统性风险和系统重要性机构独特性选择、开发、设计与之相匹配的宏观审慎监管的政策工具、建立显性存款保险制度、强调宏观审慎政策与宏观经济政策的配合等等措施对策。
Finance is the core of the morden economy and the status of which becomes so crucial in the optimum distribution of productive resources.Under the background of the economic globalization and global production factors allocation,it is inevitable to speed up the financial openness and integrate the globalization.The chinese financial openness has started along with its reform and openness and has been through more thirty years .it is worth keeping a watchful eye on which the level is the chinese financial openness and how is the coordinate with the domestic development,then what are the risks brought by financial openness and how the effect on the stability and safe of its economy and finance ,and what the status of the financial openness in crises,and how to boost the gowth,and which new challenge produced to the domestic financial regulations? The answers to those questions are so critical to the next strategy formulation. So,base on the existing literature ,the paper carries on research about the measurement of financial openness and coordination ,and exogenous riskes systems caused by it,and the role in the crises ,and the relationship with the growth,and the affect on the financial supervision. Then,comes to the next conclutions.
Firstly, The paper constructs the system of financial openness by seeing the from the angle of the connotation of the financial openness, and presents the financial openness level measurement .Furtherly, the paper maks a careful study of the financial openness coordination including its conception、measurement and judgment rule. The paper selected 120 countries as research sampls and the results showed the grade of chinese financial openness is moderate,and there is discordant status between the chinese financial opneness and its domestic develepment after the enterance to the WTO,which means that relativing to the qualification the demanding by the dejure financial openness ,the domestic development is not enough somehow. the consequences are due to the government intervention to the market mechanism of financial development and lead to the financial marketization insufficient development. Additionally, because the chinese government implementary the ways of utilization of foreign funds to promote its technology progress and to lose sight of the interactivity between the financial industries openness and the capital and financail account liberalization,but actually ,this strategy exceedingly pursues the amount of the capital and ignore its quality and does not bring about the real technical pregress. Under the joint action of these factor, the domestic development is not qualitifed to the speed and quality demanding by the offical financial openness.
Secondly, Based on risk index system of caused by financial openness,this papers presents the“3δ”principle as the measure of risk evaluation and construct a ANN risk-forecast model. Then, to apply the principle and model to chinese the financial openness practice,and the reslut shows the risk state rendered by the financial openness is safty. And to make use of the exogenous risk data from the 26 main developing countries to examine the model. and the papers apply the partial least-squares regression to analyse the effect on the economic and financial stability and safety, the research result is conform to the actual of the 26 samples. the outcome indicates that“3δ”principle and the partial least-squares regression and the early warning model can be qualified measures to the risk evaluation and forecast. and have practicability and maneuverability, which maybe be a good means for the competent authorities to supervise the risk caused by the financial openness.
Thirdly, the paper constructs a simple difference model to investigate the impact of FDI behavior changes on the balance of payments. The research indicates along with HFDI increasing in domestic market, the level of net exports brought by FDI will be incessantly put down and causes the decreasing of the surplus of balance of payments, to make matters worse,following with the increasing proportion of HDI in FDI ,the net effect of balance of payments brought by the FDI will very likely become deficit, which even lead to the balance of payments crisis.
Fourthly, the paper sets up a crisis model including the factor of government subsidies、the unfavorable external shocks、international interest rate and financial openness,and it indicats that the subsidies under the government-dominated economywhich did not affect the total factor productivity (TFP) can put forward the gowth but it will cause the over-investment and creat the asset bubbles, this will maked the domestic economy more fragile under the unfavorable external shocks and the variation of international interest rate.Financial openness will intensify this fragile and is one of important elements of crisis. but the primary cause of the crisis will be due to the fault of the model of domestic development. the test result of the crisis model by the the numerical simulation and domerstration based on the Malysia sample data from the 1970 to 2010 can sufficiently supports the views deduced from the model. the reaserch is helpful to make industrial strategy under the financial openness.
Fifthly, based on the endogenous economic growth theory,this paper present a decomposeing modle of the effec of financial openness on the growth, which can reviews the integration effect brought by the financil openness on the growth. Then to use the practice of chinese financial openness to test this model, the result shows that the integration effect brings by the financial openness is positive,but the effect on the growth brougt by official commitment is much greater than the actual practice one`s due to the domestic development dropping behind of the quality and space of the commitment level, what `s worse,the effect on the growth produced by the actual practice is seem to be degressing along with the deeping of financial openness.so,how to speed up the demostic economy and finnace reforming to promote the development to adapt the requirement of financial openness, which is the great matter in the future.
Finally, the paper also investigates the effect of the financial openness on the financial supervision,and puts forward that the developing countries should build up the Macro- prudential supervision system as soon as possible . Then, the paper according to the practical in China and considers that the chinese authority should estabilish a special department to undertake the macro-prudential supervision functions . Meanwhile,the peper also give some significative to how to structure the Macro-prudential supervision framework,such as how to design the supervision tool according to the peculiarity of the chinese systematic risk and System importance institutions,and set up the Deposit Insurance System,and how to make effective cooperation between the macro-prudential supervision policy and the macroeconomy-control and so on.
(1)本文从金融开放的内涵着手,构建了金融开放的体系结构,在这基础上提出了测算金融开放水平的公式,并进一步地对金融开放的协调性的涵义、测度和判断等问题进行了细致研究。选择包括中国在内的120个国家和地区作为样本进行实证分析,分析结果显示目前中国官方承诺的金融开放处于中度开放水平,现实金融开放水平明显要低于官方承诺水平。对中国金融开放的协调性研究表明中国在加入WTO后中国金融开放与国内发展不相协调且这种不协调的程度有加重的趋势,即相对于官方承诺的金融开放水平所要求的速度和质量,国内发展显得不足。而造成这一结果的原因在于中国采取的政府主导型的金融开放模式使得金融发展的市场机制在政府干预下遭到抑制,金融市场化发展不足,再加上中国实施的以利用外资实现技术溢出进而促进技术进步的金融开放战略,忽略了金融市场开放和资本与金融账户开放的互动性,进而导致国内金融市场深化发展相对缓慢,而开放过程中过重地追求“资本”却并没有真正带来技术创新上的突破,也导致了金融开放过程与开放战略目标的错位。这些弊端的共同作用下,使得在加入WTO后,国内发展尤其是金融发展相对于官方承诺金融开放水平所要求的速度和质量显得不足。
(2)本文在仔细梳理金融开放可能带来的外源性风险的基础,构建金融开放外源性风险指标体系,分别应用“3δ”原理、偏最小二乘法、神经网络模型评估金融开放风险、分析金融开放风险对经济金融稳定与安全影响和预测金融开放风险。选取26个世界主要发展中国家的相关数据进行实证分析,结果显示中国当前金融开放的风险级别处于安全状态。且对26个世界主要发展中国家金融开放外源性风险的评估、预警以及其对经济金融影响的结果,都与26个国家的实际十分吻合。这表明“3δ”原理和偏最小二乘法、神经网络模型在监测、分析和预警发展中国家金融开放外源性风险具有很强的实用性和可操作性,为建立金融开放外生源风险的评价机制,提高金融开放监管效率提供了方法依据。
(3)在金融开放的潜在国际收支风险研究方面,本文通过建立差分模型,考察伴随金融开放流入东道国的长期外商直接投资的行为变迁对其国际收支的影响。研究表明以占领东道国市场为目的长期外商直接投资将在长时期内不断削减长期外商直接投资产生的净出口效应,使东道国国际收支顺差不断减小,且随着寻求市场型长期外商直接投资存量占长期外商直接投资的比重不断增大,极有可能导致长期外商直接投资产生的国际收支净效益转为逆差,甚至引发国际收支危机。
(4)本文建立了一个包含政府补贴、外部冲击、国际利率变化及金融开放等因素在内的危机模型来考察金融开放在危机中的角色,模型分析表明政府主导下对产业发展的非TPF补贴在推动国内经济高速增长的同时,引致了过度投资并形成了资产泡沫;在不利外部冲击或国际利率变动的作用下,国内经济显得敏感而脆弱,金融开放将加剧这种脆弱性,并成为危机爆发的重要因素。模型认为导致危机的根本原因是政府主导下发展模型的缺陷。通过数值模拟和马来西亚的样本数据实证充分的验证了这一结论。这对中国金融开放、产业发展战略的选择有着重要的启示作用。
(5)本文基于内生经济增长理论框架,构建了一个金融开放对经济增长效应的分解模型,从收益与风险方面综合考察金融开放对经济增长的效应。并以中国金融开放的实践,对效应分解模型进行检验,结果表明,中国金融开放对经济增长的综合效应为正,但由于国内发展跟不上官方承诺开放水平的速度和质量,导致了现实开放水平下的增长效应要明显小于官方承诺开放水平下的效应,且现实开放水平下的效应有递减趋势。因此,如何加快经济金融改革促进国内发展以适应新形势开放的需要,是摆在中国金融开放面前的重大问题。
(6)出于对金融开放风险的防范考虑,本文还研究了金融开放的国家宏观审慎监管构建问题,明确金融开放对发展中国家金融监管带来挑战,提出了发展中国家须要建立宏观审慎监管机制。同时,本文还结合中国的实际,认为中国应成立一个由国务院分管领导任主席的专门的跨部门的金融监管协调委员会,承担宏观审慎监管的职能,并提出了如何根据中国金融系统性风险和系统重要性机构独特性选择、开发、设计与之相匹配的宏观审慎监管的政策工具、建立显性存款保险制度、强调宏观审慎政策与宏观经济政策的配合等等措施对策。
Finance is the core of the morden economy and the status of which becomes so crucial in the optimum distribution of productive resources.Under the background of the economic globalization and global production factors allocation,it is inevitable to speed up the financial openness and integrate the globalization.The chinese financial openness has started along with its reform and openness and has been through more thirty years .it is worth keeping a watchful eye on which the level is the chinese financial openness and how is the coordinate with the domestic development,then what are the risks brought by financial openness and how the effect on the stability and safe of its economy and finance ,and what the status of the financial openness in crises,and how to boost the gowth,and which new challenge produced to the domestic financial regulations? The answers to those questions are so critical to the next strategy formulation. So,base on the existing literature ,the paper carries on research about the measurement of financial openness and coordination ,and exogenous riskes systems caused by it,and the role in the crises ,and the relationship with the growth,and the affect on the financial supervision. Then,comes to the next conclutions.
Firstly, The paper constructs the system of financial openness by seeing the from the angle of the connotation of the financial openness, and presents the financial openness level measurement .Furtherly, the paper maks a careful study of the financial openness coordination including its conception、measurement and judgment rule. The paper selected 120 countries as research sampls and the results showed the grade of chinese financial openness is moderate,and there is discordant status between the chinese financial opneness and its domestic develepment after the enterance to the WTO,which means that relativing to the qualification the demanding by the dejure financial openness ,the domestic development is not enough somehow. the consequences are due to the government intervention to the market mechanism of financial development and lead to the financial marketization insufficient development. Additionally, because the chinese government implementary the ways of utilization of foreign funds to promote its technology progress and to lose sight of the interactivity between the financial industries openness and the capital and financail account liberalization,but actually ,this strategy exceedingly pursues the amount of the capital and ignore its quality and does not bring about the real technical pregress. Under the joint action of these factor, the domestic development is not qualitifed to the speed and quality demanding by the offical financial openness.
Secondly, Based on risk index system of caused by financial openness,this papers presents the“3δ”principle as the measure of risk evaluation and construct a ANN risk-forecast model. Then, to apply the principle and model to chinese the financial openness practice,and the reslut shows the risk state rendered by the financial openness is safty. And to make use of the exogenous risk data from the 26 main developing countries to examine the model. and the papers apply the partial least-squares regression to analyse the effect on the economic and financial stability and safety, the research result is conform to the actual of the 26 samples. the outcome indicates that“3δ”principle and the partial least-squares regression and the early warning model can be qualified measures to the risk evaluation and forecast. and have practicability and maneuverability, which maybe be a good means for the competent authorities to supervise the risk caused by the financial openness.
Thirdly, the paper constructs a simple difference model to investigate the impact of FDI behavior changes on the balance of payments. The research indicates along with HFDI increasing in domestic market, the level of net exports brought by FDI will be incessantly put down and causes the decreasing of the surplus of balance of payments, to make matters worse,following with the increasing proportion of HDI in FDI ,the net effect of balance of payments brought by the FDI will very likely become deficit, which even lead to the balance of payments crisis.
Fourthly, the paper sets up a crisis model including the factor of government subsidies、the unfavorable external shocks、international interest rate and financial openness,and it indicats that the subsidies under the government-dominated economywhich did not affect the total factor productivity (TFP) can put forward the gowth but it will cause the over-investment and creat the asset bubbles, this will maked the domestic economy more fragile under the unfavorable external shocks and the variation of international interest rate.Financial openness will intensify this fragile and is one of important elements of crisis. but the primary cause of the crisis will be due to the fault of the model of domestic development. the test result of the crisis model by the the numerical simulation and domerstration based on the Malysia sample data from the 1970 to 2010 can sufficiently supports the views deduced from the model. the reaserch is helpful to make industrial strategy under the financial openness.
Fifthly, based on the endogenous economic growth theory,this paper present a decomposeing modle of the effec of financial openness on the growth, which can reviews the integration effect brought by the financil openness on the growth. Then to use the practice of chinese financial openness to test this model, the result shows that the integration effect brings by the financial openness is positive,but the effect on the growth brougt by official commitment is much greater than the actual practice one`s due to the domestic development dropping behind of the quality and space of the commitment level, what `s worse,the effect on the growth produced by the actual practice is seem to be degressing along with the deeping of financial openness.so,how to speed up the demostic economy and finnace reforming to promote the development to adapt the requirement of financial openness, which is the great matter in the future.
Finally, the paper also investigates the effect of the financial openness on the financial supervision,and puts forward that the developing countries should build up the Macro- prudential supervision system as soon as possible . Then, the paper according to the practical in China and considers that the chinese authority should estabilish a special department to undertake the macro-prudential supervision functions . Meanwhile,the peper also give some significative to how to structure the Macro-prudential supervision framework,such as how to design the supervision tool according to the peculiarity of the chinese systematic risk and System importance institutions,and set up the Deposit Insurance System,and how to make effective cooperation between the macro-prudential supervision policy and the macroeconomy-control and so on.
引文
①新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.经济科学出版社,2001年
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