基于船舶领域理论的水道通过能力研究
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摘要
随着腹地经济的持续快速发展,沿海地区货运需求日益增长,经济的发展和货运需求的增长促进了沿海港口群的大规模建设,因此,作为港口群内船舶进出的主要通道,外海水道成为支撑港口群腹地经济发展的海上生命线。由于外海水道两侧一般受军事禁区管理、气象条件变化、渔船等非货运船舶等因素的影响,原本繁忙的水道船舶交通环境变得更加复杂,船舶会遇率及水域交通危险度不断增大,因此其通过能力成为管理部门日益关注的焦点。
本文首先回顾了以往内河航道通过能力计算公式以及影响因素,针对外海非限制性航道的具体情况,研究并选取了对其通过能力有影响的因素。其次,本论文研究了航道系统以及边界的确定问题,结合海上交通工程理论,建立了基于藤井理论及其修正的船舶领域模型,进而建立了外海非限制性水道通过能力计算模型。最后,根据外海水道的实际情况,对模型参数航道宽度、航行船舶速度以及船舶航行所需安全领域进行了量化。
本论文选取我国三大港口群之一的环渤海港口群出海航道老铁山水道为研究对象。通过实际调研和广泛收集资料,对模型参数及影响因素进行了合理的取值,从而为量化老铁山水道通过能力提供了前提条件,在此基础上计算了老铁山水道的船舶通过能力。
同时,通过对2020年及2030年船型以及各吨级、各货类船舶实载率的预测,并结合船舶通过能力计算出了老铁山水道的货物通过能力。本论文还以腹地经济发展为基础,基于腹地经济发展特点,给出了对未来渤海湾港口腹地经济宏观量的预测值,在扣除渤海湾沿岸港口内部船舶交流量之后,提出了未来各水平年老铁山水道货运需求及船舶流需求。通过比较通过能力和需求量,最后对老铁山水道通过能力进行了评价,并提出提高通过能力的措施和建议。
The demands of freight transport in the coastal areas has kept an increasing growth owing to the sustained and fast development of its hinterland economy,which,then,brings about the large scale constructions of coastal ports within the area.As the main channel for vessels,the channel of outside sea has become the key factor in supporting the hinterland economic development of the coastal areas port group.The busy traffic environment has become even worse due to the limitations by the military-restricted-area management on the two sides,the variations of the meteorological conditions and the adverse effects brought out by non-cargo vessels such as fishing boats,which will bring the increase in both the encounter rate of ships and risk-degree of the whole transport system.As a consequence,the navigation capacity has become the focus of the management department.
First,this paper reviews the existing calculation formulas and influencing factors in the evaluation of the inland channel passing capacity.Then,some suitable and effective factors are studied and chosen according to the concrete conditions of the channel,including its open sea property.Second,this paper has studied the system of channel and how to define its border,combined with the traffic engineering theory,a ship-field model based on Fuji Theory and its revised form is built,furthermore,the calculation model of the outside sea channel passing capacity is built too.At last,according to the fact of outside sea,the paper bring out the method of define the model parameter such as the breadth of the channel.
This paper chose Lao-Tie hill Channel as study object,which is one of the three outside sea channel of port group.Based on mass data selection and the practical investigation,this paper choses reasonable value for model parameter and influencing factors,then the calculation of the navigation capacity is carried out.
Meanwhile,the cargo-passing capacity of the Lao-Tie hill Channel is calculated by predicting ship types in 2020～2030 and the actual load rate of different ships which are various in types and cargos.The paper bring out the prediction in macro-economy of the Circum of Bohai-Sea Region,and the freight demands and ship demands are also predicted through deducting the inter-communications of the coastal ports.Finally,after comprising the capacity and demand,assessments of the Channel's passing ability is carried out,meanwhile, advices and measures in increasing the ability are also presented.
本文首先回顾了以往内河航道通过能力计算公式以及影响因素,针对外海非限制性航道的具体情况,研究并选取了对其通过能力有影响的因素。其次,本论文研究了航道系统以及边界的确定问题,结合海上交通工程理论,建立了基于藤井理论及其修正的船舶领域模型,进而建立了外海非限制性水道通过能力计算模型。最后,根据外海水道的实际情况,对模型参数航道宽度、航行船舶速度以及船舶航行所需安全领域进行了量化。
本论文选取我国三大港口群之一的环渤海港口群出海航道老铁山水道为研究对象。通过实际调研和广泛收集资料,对模型参数及影响因素进行了合理的取值,从而为量化老铁山水道通过能力提供了前提条件,在此基础上计算了老铁山水道的船舶通过能力。
同时,通过对2020年及2030年船型以及各吨级、各货类船舶实载率的预测,并结合船舶通过能力计算出了老铁山水道的货物通过能力。本论文还以腹地经济发展为基础,基于腹地经济发展特点,给出了对未来渤海湾港口腹地经济宏观量的预测值,在扣除渤海湾沿岸港口内部船舶交流量之后,提出了未来各水平年老铁山水道货运需求及船舶流需求。通过比较通过能力和需求量,最后对老铁山水道通过能力进行了评价,并提出提高通过能力的措施和建议。
The demands of freight transport in the coastal areas has kept an increasing growth owing to the sustained and fast development of its hinterland economy,which,then,brings about the large scale constructions of coastal ports within the area.As the main channel for vessels,the channel of outside sea has become the key factor in supporting the hinterland economic development of the coastal areas port group.The busy traffic environment has become even worse due to the limitations by the military-restricted-area management on the two sides,the variations of the meteorological conditions and the adverse effects brought out by non-cargo vessels such as fishing boats,which will bring the increase in both the encounter rate of ships and risk-degree of the whole transport system.As a consequence,the navigation capacity has become the focus of the management department.
First,this paper reviews the existing calculation formulas and influencing factors in the evaluation of the inland channel passing capacity.Then,some suitable and effective factors are studied and chosen according to the concrete conditions of the channel,including its open sea property.Second,this paper has studied the system of channel and how to define its border,combined with the traffic engineering theory,a ship-field model based on Fuji Theory and its revised form is built,furthermore,the calculation model of the outside sea channel passing capacity is built too.At last,according to the fact of outside sea,the paper bring out the method of define the model parameter such as the breadth of the channel.
This paper chose Lao-Tie hill Channel as study object,which is one of the three outside sea channel of port group.Based on mass data selection and the practical investigation,this paper choses reasonable value for model parameter and influencing factors,then the calculation of the navigation capacity is carried out.
Meanwhile,the cargo-passing capacity of the Lao-Tie hill Channel is calculated by predicting ship types in 2020～2030 and the actual load rate of different ships which are various in types and cargos.The paper bring out the prediction in macro-economy of the Circum of Bohai-Sea Region,and the freight demands and ship demands are also predicted through deducting the inter-communications of the coastal ports.Finally,after comprising the capacity and demand,assessments of the Channel's passing ability is carried out,meanwhile, advices and measures in increasing the ability are also presented.
引文
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[2]长江航道局.航道工程手册[M].北京:人民交通出版社.2005.
[3]长江航道局.川江航道整治[R].北京:人民交通出版社.1998.
[4]宣敏明.利用乘潮水位航道的通过能力计算[J].中国机械工程,2000,11(6):707-712.
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[7]刘亚丽.长江干线航道通过能力研究[D].大连海事大学硕士论文,2007.2.
[8]董宇、姜哗、何良德.内河航道通过能力计算方法研究[J].水运工程.2007(1):59-65.
[9]张玮.船闸通过能力研究[D].大连海事大学博士论文,2006.12.
[10]吴兆麟.海上交通工程(第二版)[M].大连海事大学出版社,2004.11.
[11]藤井弥平.海上交通工学[M].东京:海文堂,1981.
[12]Goodwin E M.A Statistical Study of Ship D0mains[J].Journal of Navigation,1975,28(3):328-344.
[13]Tak C V,Spaans J.A.A Model for Calculatiing a Maritime Risk Criterion Number[M].Journal of Navigation,1977,30(2):287-295.
[14]肖田元,张燕云,陈加栋.系统仿真导论[M].北京:清华大学出版社.2000.
[15]熊光楞.连续系统仿真与离散事件系统仿真[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1991:202-203.
[16]Luca M,etal.Simulation and Planning of Inter-modal Container Terminal[J].Simulation.1998:Vol.71,No.2,107-116.
[17]Michael.R,et al.Simulation,Animation and Visualization of Seaport Operations[J].Simulation.1998,71,(2):96-106.
[18]Yuri M,et al.A Modeling and Simulation Methodology for Managing the Riga Harbor Container Terminal[J].Simulation.1998:Vol.71,No.2:84-95.
[19]A.A.Shabayek,W.W.Yeung.A Simulation model for the Kwal Chung container terminals in Hong Kong[J].European Journal of Operational Research.2002:1-11.
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[21]杨兴晏.进港航道通航能力的计算机仿真研究(下)[M].水运工程,1989(8):15-18.
[22]New York:United Nations.United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.Secretariat[M].Port Development-a handbook for Planners in developing Countries.1985.
[23]商剑平.黄骅港航道通过能力的仿真模型研究[D].大连理工大学硕士论文,2005.
[24]吴丹.基于系统仿真的港口航道通过能力研究[D].大连理工大学硕士论文,2007.
[25]郭耀煌.运筹学与工程系统分析[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1986.
[26]鲁子爱.港口服务系统仿真与港口规模优化研究[D].河海大学博士学位论文,2001.
[27]黎志成.管理系统模拟[M].北京:物资出版社,1985.
[28]黄文宜.计算机仿真技术[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,1990.
[29]郑大钟,赵千川.离散事件动态系统[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001.
[30]吴兆麟.海上交通工程[M]:大连海事大学出版社,1993.
[31]姜才兴.浅谈VTS与船舶雾航安全监管[J].中国水运,2007(7):15-17.
[32]大连海事大学.老铁山水道定线制研究[R].2005:7
[33]江富才.对影响安全航速因素的分析与探讨[J].交通科技.2000(1):41-42.
[34]刘伟.对港口通航水域尺度的分析[J].武汉航海职业技术学校学报.2006(3):5-6
[35]孙永卫、徐量.长山水道船舶流量及交通管理分析[J].中国水运(上半月),2008(4):40-41.
[36]洪承礼.港口规划与布置(第二版)[M].北京:人民交通出版社.2007.
[37]交通部第一航务勘察设计院.海港工程设计手册(上册)[S].北京:人民交通出版社.2001.4.
[38]交通部规划研究院.烟大轮渡船舶交通管理系统工程可行性研究[R].1999.12.
[39]董宇.航道通过能力及服务水平研究[D].河海大学硕士学位论文.2006.3.
[40]卞艺杰.航道通过能力研究[J].水运工程.2000(8):27-30.
[41]田野.航道通过能力研究与评定[D].大连海事大学硕士学位论文.2002.
[42]刘明俊、万长征.航道通过能力影响因素的分析[J].船海工程.2002(5):116-118.
[2]长江航道局.航道工程手册[M].北京:人民交通出版社.2005.
[3]长江航道局.川江航道整治[R].北京:人民交通出版社.1998.
[4]宣敏明.利用乘潮水位航道的通过能力计算[J].中国机械工程,2000,11(6):707-712.
[5]王宏达.内河航道通过量估算[J].水运工程,1998,9:4-6.
[6]徐婷婷.不同安全条件下的航道通过能力研究[D].河海大学硕士论文.2007.3.
[7]刘亚丽.长江干线航道通过能力研究[D].大连海事大学硕士论文,2007.2.
[8]董宇、姜哗、何良德.内河航道通过能力计算方法研究[J].水运工程.2007(1):59-65.
[9]张玮.船闸通过能力研究[D].大连海事大学博士论文,2006.12.
[10]吴兆麟.海上交通工程(第二版)[M].大连海事大学出版社,2004.11.
[11]藤井弥平.海上交通工学[M].东京:海文堂,1981.
[12]Goodwin E M.A Statistical Study of Ship D0mains[J].Journal of Navigation,1975,28(3):328-344.
[13]Tak C V,Spaans J.A.A Model for Calculatiing a Maritime Risk Criterion Number[M].Journal of Navigation,1977,30(2):287-295.
[14]肖田元,张燕云,陈加栋.系统仿真导论[M].北京:清华大学出版社.2000.
[15]熊光楞.连续系统仿真与离散事件系统仿真[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1991:202-203.
[16]Luca M,etal.Simulation and Planning of Inter-modal Container Terminal[J].Simulation.1998:Vol.71,No.2,107-116.
[17]Michael.R,et al.Simulation,Animation and Visualization of Seaport Operations[J].Simulation.1998,71,(2):96-106.
[18]Yuri M,et al.A Modeling and Simulation Methodology for Managing the Riga Harbor Container Terminal[J].Simulation.1998:Vol.71,No.2:84-95.
[19]A.A.Shabayek,W.W.Yeung.A Simulation model for the Kwal Chung container terminals in Hong Kong[J].European Journal of Operational Research.2002:1-11.
[20]杨兴晏.进港航道通航能力的计算机仿真研究(上)[M].水运工程,1989(7):16-20.
[21]杨兴晏.进港航道通航能力的计算机仿真研究(下)[M].水运工程,1989(8):15-18.
[22]New York:United Nations.United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.Secretariat[M].Port Development-a handbook for Planners in developing Countries.1985.
[23]商剑平.黄骅港航道通过能力的仿真模型研究[D].大连理工大学硕士论文,2005.
[24]吴丹.基于系统仿真的港口航道通过能力研究[D].大连理工大学硕士论文,2007.
[25]郭耀煌.运筹学与工程系统分析[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1986.
[26]鲁子爱.港口服务系统仿真与港口规模优化研究[D].河海大学博士学位论文,2001.
[27]黎志成.管理系统模拟[M].北京:物资出版社,1985.
[28]黄文宜.计算机仿真技术[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,1990.
[29]郑大钟,赵千川.离散事件动态系统[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2001.
[30]吴兆麟.海上交通工程[M]:大连海事大学出版社,1993.
[31]姜才兴.浅谈VTS与船舶雾航安全监管[J].中国水运,2007(7):15-17.
[32]大连海事大学.老铁山水道定线制研究[R].2005:7
[33]江富才.对影响安全航速因素的分析与探讨[J].交通科技.2000(1):41-42.
[34]刘伟.对港口通航水域尺度的分析[J].武汉航海职业技术学校学报.2006(3):5-6
[35]孙永卫、徐量.长山水道船舶流量及交通管理分析[J].中国水运(上半月),2008(4):40-41.
[36]洪承礼.港口规划与布置(第二版)[M].北京:人民交通出版社.2007.
[37]交通部第一航务勘察设计院.海港工程设计手册(上册)[S].北京:人民交通出版社.2001.4.
[38]交通部规划研究院.烟大轮渡船舶交通管理系统工程可行性研究[R].1999.12.
[39]董宇.航道通过能力及服务水平研究[D].河海大学硕士学位论文.2006.3.
[40]卞艺杰.航道通过能力研究[J].水运工程.2000(8):27-30.
[41]田野.航道通过能力研究与评定[D].大连海事大学硕士学位论文.2002.
[42]刘明俊、万长征.航道通过能力影响因素的分析[J].船海工程.2002(5):116-118.