风电并网电力系统充裕性决策模型和方法研究
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摘要
大规模风电并网给以传统的电力系统可靠性理论为基础的电力系统规划和运行决策带来了新问题。电力系统可靠性包括充裕性和安全性两个方面。充裕性是指电力系统稳态运行时,在元件额定容量、母线电压和系统频率等允许的范围内,考虑系统中元件计划停运及合理的非计划停运的条件下,向用户提供全部所需的电力和电量的能力。与传统电源不同,风电的逆调峰性、随机性和间歇性造成风电并网电力系统的充裕性决策问题更加复杂；虽然从节能减排的意义上看,大规模风电并网改善了电源结构,但从可靠性乃至经济性的角度来看,充裕性保障未必优化,而且还使得互联电网输电断面的充裕性面临更大的不确定性。本文以风电场投资建设的时序优化、互联电网输电断面的可靠性裕度优化和容量效益裕度优化等为侧重点,围绕风电并网电力系统的充裕性决策模型和方法开展研究,以期为大规模风电并网电力系统的充裕性保障提供决策工具。在当前我国乃至全球大力发展风电的形势下,本论文领域的科学研究不仅具有学术价值,而且具有重要的现实意义。
论文的主要研究工作和取得的创新性成果如下：
为保证系统调峰容量的充裕性,提出风电场群时序规划的思想以及规划模型和方法。针对待建风电场与常规机组在投建时机上的协同,考虑风电场间的风速相关性,定义了投资时序矩阵和投运状态矩阵用以刻画风电场群和常规机组在投资与运行中的时序关联关系；采用调峰能力缺额风险值(value at risk, VaR)指标量度投资时序的调峰容量充裕性风险,并提出计及风速相关性的调峰充裕性风险评估方法；采用期权组合价值衡量风电场群投资时序的经济性,并建立考虑风电投资成本学习效应的投资时序经济性评估模型；构建统筹风电场群投资经济性和调峰充裕性风险的双层模型,引入风险当量系数解释模型中罚因子的技术经济意义；通过算例分析验证模型和方法的有效性。
基于保险理论建立风电并网互联系统的输电可靠性裕度(Transmission Reliability Margin, TRM)决策模型。借鉴广义保险理论,提出TRM虚拟保险的概念以实现对可靠性和经济性的广义量度,将含风电互联系统TRM决策问题转化为虚拟保险最优购买决策问题分析建模；引入效用函数问接刻画决策者的可靠性偏好,运用保险资产选择理论建立决策模型；通过蒙特卡罗模拟评估模型参数。以IEEE30节点算例分析验证了上述方法和模型的有效性和自身优势。
应用期权理论建立计及可中断负荷的含风电互联系统容量效益裕度(Capacity Benefit Margin, CBM)决策模型。在研究含风电互联系统中备用增量可靠性价值的基础上,提出备用增量期权的概念,进而提出将计及可中断负荷的含风电互联系统CBM决策问题转化为备用增量期权组合的最优购买决策问题建模的思想,以实现决策模型对多种决策影响因素的有机统合。针对备用增量期权具有以发电容量事故发生为行权触发条件、可多次行权且受行权次序制约的奇异期权特征,为化解由奇异期权特征所造成的备用增量期权组合价值衡量的困境,进一步提出备用增量期权组合单元化分解重组的思路,建立以单元期权组合序列价值最大化为目标的决策模型。RTS-79系统算例验证了该模型的有效性和自身优势。
保障风电并网电力系统充裕性需要充裕性资源的协同策略。风电大规模集中接入模式下,从资源调用灵活性的角度出发,界定并识别电力系统发电、输配电、用电等环节上的灵活型充裕性资源,提出协同灵活充裕性资源以促进风电消纳的理念。在此基础上,建立综合考虑火电、水电和风电发电技术特性、电力和热力负荷平衡、输电容量等多种约束的风电消纳能力分析模型。实际算例模拟分析了不同类型灵活资源对系统风电消纳能力的影响。
在风电经由微电网分散接入模式下,考虑微电网对配电网充裕性的互济效应,提出了刻画充裕性互济效应的微电网“成岛能力”指标及其计算方法,建立了计及互济效应的含微电网的配电网网架柔性规划模型。将改进的细菌群体趋药性(BCC)算法应用于模型求解,提出基于sigmoid函数的布尔困境解决策略和基于操纵子理论的孤岛、孤链和环网判断修复策略。IEEE54节点算例验证了模型的适用性和改进BCC算法的有效性。
With the integration of large-scale wind power, new problems arise from electric power system planning and operation decisions based on the traditional power system reliability theory. Reliability of power system includes two aspects, namely, adequacy and security. Adequacy of an electric power system is defined as the power and energy supply capability of power system for the user in the allowable ranges of components rated capacity, bus voltage and frequency considering planned and unplanned outage of components under the condition of power system steady-state operation. Different from traditional power, the characteristics of wind power such as inverse peak-regulation, randomness and intermittent output result in the complexity of decision about adequacy. Although the integration of large-scale wind power improves the power structure in the sense of energy saving and emission reduction, there is still optimization space in decision about adequacy safeguarding, and uncertainty of adequacy on transmission section increases, too. In order to provide decision-making tools for adequacy safeguarding, adequacy decision-making models and methods were researched around the optimization problems such as construction timing of clustering wind farms, transmission reliability margin and capacity benefit margin on the transmission section in the interconnected power system. In the current situation of developing wind power at home and abroad, research in this paper has not only academic value but also important practical significance.
Main research work and innovative achievements obtained in the paper are as follows:
In order to ensure the adequacy of peak regulation capacity, timing planning thought, models and methods of wind farms were proposed. Taking the correlation of wind speed and coordination of construction time into account, the relationship between investment and operation of wind farms and conventional units was depicted with investment timing matrix and operation state matrix. The index of value at risk (VaR) of peak-load regulating capacity vacancy was presented to measure the adaptability risk and risk assessment method considering correlation of wind speed was proposed. The value of options portfolio was introduced to measure the economy of investment timing of clustering wind farms, and economic value evaluation model was established considering the learning effect. Based on the above study, bi-level programming model was built to realize the organic unity of investment economy and adaptability risk of peak-load regulation and risk equivalent coefficient was introduced to endow the penalty factor with definite techno-economic significance. Mixed algorithm of Monte-Carlo simulation and genetic algorithm was proposed to solve the above model. The study results on IEEE30test system shows that the proposed models and methods are feasible and effective.
Generalized insurance theory was applied to develop a new TRM decision model suitable for interconnected grid with wind power integrating. In order to measure the generalized reliability and economy, the concept of TRM virtual insurance was put forward. And by application of this concept, the problem of optimum TRM decision was reconstructed into the problem of optimum purchase decision of virtual insurance. With the introduction of utility function, reliability preference was indirect described. Optimum purchase decision model was proposed on the basis of theory of assets choice, and Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to evaluate the model parameters. A case study of IEEE30bus verifies the effectiveness and advantages of the model proposed.
To adapt to the new characteristics of the decision-making problem of capacity benefit margin for interconnected system with wind power integrating, methods and models based on option theory were proposed. Reliability value of generation reserve increment was researched, and the concept of virtual reserve increment option was put forward. The problem of CBM decision was brought into the analytical framework of optimum purchase decision of options portfolio, so that multiple factors influencing decision could be given all-round consideration effectively. Due to the exotic characteristics of reserve increment options, such as trigger conditions, times and order of execution, value evaluation of options portfolio encountered difficulties. Due to the exotic characteristics of reserve increment options, such as trigger conditions, times and order of execution, value evaluation of options portfolio encountered difficulties. A case study of modified IEEE-RTS79verifies the effectiveness and advantages of the model proposed.
Coordination strategy of adequacy resources is necessary to safeguard the adequacy of Electricity Power System with Wind Power Integrating. Under the concentrated mode of large-scale wind power integration, from the viewpoint of delimitating and identifying flexible adequacy resources, the basic idea and method were proposed that flexible adequacy resources in the links of power generation, transmission, distribution and consumption should be coordinated so as to promote digestion of wind power. Comprehensively considering technical characteristics of various power generations and such constrains as the balance of power, thermal loads and transfer capacity, a model was built to analyze wind power accommodation capacity of power grid. Taking a certain province in China, which is rich in wind power resources, as calculation example, the changes of wind power accommodation capability were simulated and analyzed under different scenes of introducing in different flexible resources. Results of simulation and analysis show that the accommodation capability of wind power can be improved by increasing various flexible resources in which the resource of peak load regulation capacity plays the most important part.
Under the scattered integration mode of wind power via micro grid, the concept of 'island-shaping ability' was put forward to describe the'mutual-aiding effect', and its calculation method was also proposed. Considering the'mutual-aiding effect', a distribution network flexible planning model containing MG was established. Improved bacteria colony chemotaxis (BCC) algorithm was applied to solve the above model. Sigmoid function was adopted to solve the Boolean dilemma and the judgment and recovery strategy for the infeasible solutions arising from the iterative process was presented, which was based on operon theory and could repair the islands, isolated chains and rings simultaneously. IEEE54example shows the applicability of the model, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the improved BCC algorithm in the distribution network programming containing MG.
论文的主要研究工作和取得的创新性成果如下：
为保证系统调峰容量的充裕性,提出风电场群时序规划的思想以及规划模型和方法。针对待建风电场与常规机组在投建时机上的协同,考虑风电场间的风速相关性,定义了投资时序矩阵和投运状态矩阵用以刻画风电场群和常规机组在投资与运行中的时序关联关系；采用调峰能力缺额风险值(value at risk, VaR)指标量度投资时序的调峰容量充裕性风险,并提出计及风速相关性的调峰充裕性风险评估方法；采用期权组合价值衡量风电场群投资时序的经济性,并建立考虑风电投资成本学习效应的投资时序经济性评估模型；构建统筹风电场群投资经济性和调峰充裕性风险的双层模型,引入风险当量系数解释模型中罚因子的技术经济意义；通过算例分析验证模型和方法的有效性。
基于保险理论建立风电并网互联系统的输电可靠性裕度(Transmission Reliability Margin, TRM)决策模型。借鉴广义保险理论,提出TRM虚拟保险的概念以实现对可靠性和经济性的广义量度,将含风电互联系统TRM决策问题转化为虚拟保险最优购买决策问题分析建模；引入效用函数问接刻画决策者的可靠性偏好,运用保险资产选择理论建立决策模型；通过蒙特卡罗模拟评估模型参数。以IEEE30节点算例分析验证了上述方法和模型的有效性和自身优势。
应用期权理论建立计及可中断负荷的含风电互联系统容量效益裕度(Capacity Benefit Margin, CBM)决策模型。在研究含风电互联系统中备用增量可靠性价值的基础上,提出备用增量期权的概念,进而提出将计及可中断负荷的含风电互联系统CBM决策问题转化为备用增量期权组合的最优购买决策问题建模的思想,以实现决策模型对多种决策影响因素的有机统合。针对备用增量期权具有以发电容量事故发生为行权触发条件、可多次行权且受行权次序制约的奇异期权特征,为化解由奇异期权特征所造成的备用增量期权组合价值衡量的困境,进一步提出备用增量期权组合单元化分解重组的思路,建立以单元期权组合序列价值最大化为目标的决策模型。RTS-79系统算例验证了该模型的有效性和自身优势。
保障风电并网电力系统充裕性需要充裕性资源的协同策略。风电大规模集中接入模式下,从资源调用灵活性的角度出发,界定并识别电力系统发电、输配电、用电等环节上的灵活型充裕性资源,提出协同灵活充裕性资源以促进风电消纳的理念。在此基础上,建立综合考虑火电、水电和风电发电技术特性、电力和热力负荷平衡、输电容量等多种约束的风电消纳能力分析模型。实际算例模拟分析了不同类型灵活资源对系统风电消纳能力的影响。
在风电经由微电网分散接入模式下,考虑微电网对配电网充裕性的互济效应,提出了刻画充裕性互济效应的微电网“成岛能力”指标及其计算方法,建立了计及互济效应的含微电网的配电网网架柔性规划模型。将改进的细菌群体趋药性(BCC)算法应用于模型求解,提出基于sigmoid函数的布尔困境解决策略和基于操纵子理论的孤岛、孤链和环网判断修复策略。IEEE54节点算例验证了模型的适用性和改进BCC算法的有效性。
With the integration of large-scale wind power, new problems arise from electric power system planning and operation decisions based on the traditional power system reliability theory. Reliability of power system includes two aspects, namely, adequacy and security. Adequacy of an electric power system is defined as the power and energy supply capability of power system for the user in the allowable ranges of components rated capacity, bus voltage and frequency considering planned and unplanned outage of components under the condition of power system steady-state operation. Different from traditional power, the characteristics of wind power such as inverse peak-regulation, randomness and intermittent output result in the complexity of decision about adequacy. Although the integration of large-scale wind power improves the power structure in the sense of energy saving and emission reduction, there is still optimization space in decision about adequacy safeguarding, and uncertainty of adequacy on transmission section increases, too. In order to provide decision-making tools for adequacy safeguarding, adequacy decision-making models and methods were researched around the optimization problems such as construction timing of clustering wind farms, transmission reliability margin and capacity benefit margin on the transmission section in the interconnected power system. In the current situation of developing wind power at home and abroad, research in this paper has not only academic value but also important practical significance.
Main research work and innovative achievements obtained in the paper are as follows:
In order to ensure the adequacy of peak regulation capacity, timing planning thought, models and methods of wind farms were proposed. Taking the correlation of wind speed and coordination of construction time into account, the relationship between investment and operation of wind farms and conventional units was depicted with investment timing matrix and operation state matrix. The index of value at risk (VaR) of peak-load regulating capacity vacancy was presented to measure the adaptability risk and risk assessment method considering correlation of wind speed was proposed. The value of options portfolio was introduced to measure the economy of investment timing of clustering wind farms, and economic value evaluation model was established considering the learning effect. Based on the above study, bi-level programming model was built to realize the organic unity of investment economy and adaptability risk of peak-load regulation and risk equivalent coefficient was introduced to endow the penalty factor with definite techno-economic significance. Mixed algorithm of Monte-Carlo simulation and genetic algorithm was proposed to solve the above model. The study results on IEEE30test system shows that the proposed models and methods are feasible and effective.
Generalized insurance theory was applied to develop a new TRM decision model suitable for interconnected grid with wind power integrating. In order to measure the generalized reliability and economy, the concept of TRM virtual insurance was put forward. And by application of this concept, the problem of optimum TRM decision was reconstructed into the problem of optimum purchase decision of virtual insurance. With the introduction of utility function, reliability preference was indirect described. Optimum purchase decision model was proposed on the basis of theory of assets choice, and Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to evaluate the model parameters. A case study of IEEE30bus verifies the effectiveness and advantages of the model proposed.
To adapt to the new characteristics of the decision-making problem of capacity benefit margin for interconnected system with wind power integrating, methods and models based on option theory were proposed. Reliability value of generation reserve increment was researched, and the concept of virtual reserve increment option was put forward. The problem of CBM decision was brought into the analytical framework of optimum purchase decision of options portfolio, so that multiple factors influencing decision could be given all-round consideration effectively. Due to the exotic characteristics of reserve increment options, such as trigger conditions, times and order of execution, value evaluation of options portfolio encountered difficulties. Due to the exotic characteristics of reserve increment options, such as trigger conditions, times and order of execution, value evaluation of options portfolio encountered difficulties. A case study of modified IEEE-RTS79verifies the effectiveness and advantages of the model proposed.
Coordination strategy of adequacy resources is necessary to safeguard the adequacy of Electricity Power System with Wind Power Integrating. Under the concentrated mode of large-scale wind power integration, from the viewpoint of delimitating and identifying flexible adequacy resources, the basic idea and method were proposed that flexible adequacy resources in the links of power generation, transmission, distribution and consumption should be coordinated so as to promote digestion of wind power. Comprehensively considering technical characteristics of various power generations and such constrains as the balance of power, thermal loads and transfer capacity, a model was built to analyze wind power accommodation capacity of power grid. Taking a certain province in China, which is rich in wind power resources, as calculation example, the changes of wind power accommodation capability were simulated and analyzed under different scenes of introducing in different flexible resources. Results of simulation and analysis show that the accommodation capability of wind power can be improved by increasing various flexible resources in which the resource of peak load regulation capacity plays the most important part.
Under the scattered integration mode of wind power via micro grid, the concept of 'island-shaping ability' was put forward to describe the'mutual-aiding effect', and its calculation method was also proposed. Considering the'mutual-aiding effect', a distribution network flexible planning model containing MG was established. Improved bacteria colony chemotaxis (BCC) algorithm was applied to solve the above model. Sigmoid function was adopted to solve the Boolean dilemma and the judgment and recovery strategy for the infeasible solutions arising from the iterative process was presented, which was based on operon theory and could repair the islands, isolated chains and rings simultaneously. IEEE54example shows the applicability of the model, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the improved BCC algorithm in the distribution network programming containing MG.
引文
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