煤炭企业风险识别、评估与防控研究
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摘要
煤炭是我国的主要能源资源,煤炭企业的平稳运行对我国国民经济发展和能源安全至关重要。近年来,我国煤炭企业产量和经济效益取得了实现了较快进步,但是仍然面临着宏观政策、安全、财务、市场等风险。如何有效识别、评估与防控这些风险是目前煤炭企业和学术研究普遍关注并亟待解决的热点问题。有鉴于此,在对现有企业风险管理相关研究成果进行系统梳理的基础上,针对煤炭企业风险的特点,综合运用煤炭企业管理、风险管理、数理统计、结构方程模型(SEM)相关方法、模糊数学等相关理论与方法对我国煤炭企业风险进行了识别、评估和防控研究,取得了以下主要研究成果:
(1)在文献研究的基础上,结合煤炭企业的特点,从外部环境、企业资源、能力、组织管理、安全保障和运营6个维度对煤炭企业潜在风险因素进行了分析并提出了相应的43个研究假设。借助于因子分析和回归分析的方法对研究假设进行了检验,据此识别出政策法规、行业市场、关键资源、核心能力、组织管理、安全保障和生产销售7个方面的风险因素为煤炭企业的关键风险因素。
(2)在煤炭企业关键风险因素识别的基础上,综合已有研究成果,提出了煤炭企业风险路径关系概念模型及相应的22个路径关系假设。运用结构方程模型(SEM)方法对概念模型和研究假设进行了验证。据此指出了煤炭企业7个方面的关键风险因素对风险影响的总体排序为:组织管理>核心能力>生产销售>关键资源>安全保障>政策法规>行业市场。研究结果为风险防控提供了有效的参考依据。
(3)在煤炭企业关键风险因素识别的基础上,建立了煤炭企业风险评估指标体系,通过运用基于三角模糊数定权的模糊综合评价方法,计算推导出了各风险指标的权重及风险等级的高低,并对煤炭企业整体风险状况进行了测度。通过计算分析,指出了现今我国煤炭企业在行业市场方面的风险等级较低、在政策法规、核心能力、组织管理方面的风险等级为一般,在关键资源、安全保障和生产销售方面的风险等级较高,煤炭企业整体处于一般风险等级状态。评估方法和评估结果可为煤炭企业进行风险防控提供一定的依据。
(4)在分析煤炭企业传统的风险防范方法及其弊端的基础上,设计了风险动态关联触发器模型,并以此建立了煤炭企业风险动态防范体系。从风险量和可控度方面对煤炭企业各种风险进行了划分,由此形成了4类风险组合,为煤炭企业的风险控制提供了依据。探讨了以路径分析作为风险控制的主要分析方法,指出了路径分析的步骤,分析了煤炭企业风险控制和风险处理的主要措施。从提高风险防范意识,加强安全生产管理等方面提出了煤炭企业风险防控措施。
以上研究成果,进一步深化和完善了煤炭企业风险管理相关理论,并为煤炭企业防控风险、抓住机遇、迎接挑战,最终实现健康快速发展提供了理论指导和决策依据。
China is a country where the main source of energy is coal, the healthy development ofthe coal enterprises plays an important role in China's economic growth. In recent years,China's coal enterprises has developed quickly under the driven economic development,however, since the outbreak of sub-prime mortgage loan crisis in the United States,increasingly dynamic external environment and complexity of internal enterprise force themto face various risks. How to effectively identify, evaluate and prevent these risks is a hotissue which is the popular concern of the business circles and academic fields ,and whichneeds resolved. In view of this, based on systematically reviews related to existing researchresults of enterprise risk management, according to the characteristics of the coal businessrisks, this paper comprehensively uses the knowledge of mathematical statistics, correlationmethods of structural equation modeling (SEM),and correlation theories on fuzzymathematics theory to study identification and assessment of the China's coal businessrisk,thendiscussesriskprevention,andmakesthefollowingmainresults:
(1)Onthebasisoftheliterature,combinedwiththecharacteristicsofthecoalenterprises,we analyze and put forward corresponding research hypotheses from six dimensions onpotential risk factors of the coal enterprises, including the external environment, enterpriseresources, capabilities, organizational management, security and operation. we use factoranalysis and regression analysis to test the research hypotheses, whereby, identify sevenaspects of the risk factors as the keyrisk factors of the coal enterprises, consisting of policiesand regulations, industry market, critical resources, core competencies, organizationalmanagement,security,productionandsales.
(2) Based on the identification of key risk factors in the coal enterprises, combined withthe existing research, we propose the coal enterprises of risk path relationship concept model and twenty two role relations hypotheses,then use structural equation modeling (SEM)method to verify concept model and research hypotheses, Accordingly, we point out sevenaspects of the key risk factors on the overall ranking of risk effect in the coal enterprises.organizational management > core competences > production and sales > critical resources >security > policies and regulations> industry market. These results provide an effectivereferencetoriskprevention.
(3) Based on critical risk factors identification in the coal enterprises, we establish coalbusiness risk assessment index system, through using fuzzy comprehensive evaluationmethod on the basis of triangular fuzzynumbers to determine weight, then deduce the weightof the risk index and the level of risk rating, and measure the overall risks condition of thecoal enterprises. By analyzing, we conclude that our current coal enterprises has low level ofrisk in policies and regulations, industry market area, normal level of risk in the criticalresources, core competencies, organizational management , high level of risk insecurity,productionand sales. Thesereferthat wholesituationofthecoal enterprises is underthe general risk level . Assessment methods and evaluation results provide a basis for riskpreventiontothecoalenterprises.
(4) Based on analysis of the coal enterprises in the traditional method of risk preventionand disadvantages, we design dynamic risk associated with the trigger model, then establish adynamic risk prevention system in the coal enterprises. Various risks of the coal enterpriseswere divided from the aspects of the amount and degree of risk control, thus forming fourtypes of risk portfolios to provide a basis for risk control in the Coal enterprises .we discusspath analysis as the main analysis method of risk control, and point out the steps of it, thenanalyze major initiatives of risk control and risk management in the coal enterprises .throughimproving risk prevention awareness and strengthening safety management, we suggestgeneralmeasuresonriskpreventioninthe coalenterprises.
The above-mentioned researches further deepen and improve the related theories on riskmanagement of the coal enterprises, and make the coal enterprises guard against risks, seizeopportunities, meet challenges, ultimately provide theoretical guidance and decision-makingtorealizehealthyandrapiddevelopment
(1)在文献研究的基础上,结合煤炭企业的特点,从外部环境、企业资源、能力、组织管理、安全保障和运营6个维度对煤炭企业潜在风险因素进行了分析并提出了相应的43个研究假设。借助于因子分析和回归分析的方法对研究假设进行了检验,据此识别出政策法规、行业市场、关键资源、核心能力、组织管理、安全保障和生产销售7个方面的风险因素为煤炭企业的关键风险因素。
(2)在煤炭企业关键风险因素识别的基础上,综合已有研究成果,提出了煤炭企业风险路径关系概念模型及相应的22个路径关系假设。运用结构方程模型(SEM)方法对概念模型和研究假设进行了验证。据此指出了煤炭企业7个方面的关键风险因素对风险影响的总体排序为:组织管理>核心能力>生产销售>关键资源>安全保障>政策法规>行业市场。研究结果为风险防控提供了有效的参考依据。
(3)在煤炭企业关键风险因素识别的基础上,建立了煤炭企业风险评估指标体系,通过运用基于三角模糊数定权的模糊综合评价方法,计算推导出了各风险指标的权重及风险等级的高低,并对煤炭企业整体风险状况进行了测度。通过计算分析,指出了现今我国煤炭企业在行业市场方面的风险等级较低、在政策法规、核心能力、组织管理方面的风险等级为一般,在关键资源、安全保障和生产销售方面的风险等级较高,煤炭企业整体处于一般风险等级状态。评估方法和评估结果可为煤炭企业进行风险防控提供一定的依据。
(4)在分析煤炭企业传统的风险防范方法及其弊端的基础上,设计了风险动态关联触发器模型,并以此建立了煤炭企业风险动态防范体系。从风险量和可控度方面对煤炭企业各种风险进行了划分,由此形成了4类风险组合,为煤炭企业的风险控制提供了依据。探讨了以路径分析作为风险控制的主要分析方法,指出了路径分析的步骤,分析了煤炭企业风险控制和风险处理的主要措施。从提高风险防范意识,加强安全生产管理等方面提出了煤炭企业风险防控措施。
以上研究成果,进一步深化和完善了煤炭企业风险管理相关理论,并为煤炭企业防控风险、抓住机遇、迎接挑战,最终实现健康快速发展提供了理论指导和决策依据。
China is a country where the main source of energy is coal, the healthy development ofthe coal enterprises plays an important role in China's economic growth. In recent years,China's coal enterprises has developed quickly under the driven economic development,however, since the outbreak of sub-prime mortgage loan crisis in the United States,increasingly dynamic external environment and complexity of internal enterprise force themto face various risks. How to effectively identify, evaluate and prevent these risks is a hotissue which is the popular concern of the business circles and academic fields ,and whichneeds resolved. In view of this, based on systematically reviews related to existing researchresults of enterprise risk management, according to the characteristics of the coal businessrisks, this paper comprehensively uses the knowledge of mathematical statistics, correlationmethods of structural equation modeling (SEM),and correlation theories on fuzzymathematics theory to study identification and assessment of the China's coal businessrisk,thendiscussesriskprevention,andmakesthefollowingmainresults:
(1)Onthebasisoftheliterature,combinedwiththecharacteristicsofthecoalenterprises,we analyze and put forward corresponding research hypotheses from six dimensions onpotential risk factors of the coal enterprises, including the external environment, enterpriseresources, capabilities, organizational management, security and operation. we use factoranalysis and regression analysis to test the research hypotheses, whereby, identify sevenaspects of the risk factors as the keyrisk factors of the coal enterprises, consisting of policiesand regulations, industry market, critical resources, core competencies, organizationalmanagement,security,productionandsales.
(2) Based on the identification of key risk factors in the coal enterprises, combined withthe existing research, we propose the coal enterprises of risk path relationship concept model and twenty two role relations hypotheses,then use structural equation modeling (SEM)method to verify concept model and research hypotheses, Accordingly, we point out sevenaspects of the key risk factors on the overall ranking of risk effect in the coal enterprises.organizational management > core competences > production and sales > critical resources >security > policies and regulations> industry market. These results provide an effectivereferencetoriskprevention.
(3) Based on critical risk factors identification in the coal enterprises, we establish coalbusiness risk assessment index system, through using fuzzy comprehensive evaluationmethod on the basis of triangular fuzzynumbers to determine weight, then deduce the weightof the risk index and the level of risk rating, and measure the overall risks condition of thecoal enterprises. By analyzing, we conclude that our current coal enterprises has low level ofrisk in policies and regulations, industry market area, normal level of risk in the criticalresources, core competencies, organizational management , high level of risk insecurity,productionand sales. Thesereferthat wholesituationofthecoal enterprises is underthe general risk level . Assessment methods and evaluation results provide a basis for riskpreventiontothecoalenterprises.
(4) Based on analysis of the coal enterprises in the traditional method of risk preventionand disadvantages, we design dynamic risk associated with the trigger model, then establish adynamic risk prevention system in the coal enterprises. Various risks of the coal enterpriseswere divided from the aspects of the amount and degree of risk control, thus forming fourtypes of risk portfolios to provide a basis for risk control in the Coal enterprises .we discusspath analysis as the main analysis method of risk control, and point out the steps of it, thenanalyze major initiatives of risk control and risk management in the coal enterprises .throughimproving risk prevention awareness and strengthening safety management, we suggestgeneralmeasuresonriskpreventioninthe coalenterprises.
The above-mentioned researches further deepen and improve the related theories on riskmanagement of the coal enterprises, and make the coal enterprises guard against risks, seizeopportunities, meet challenges, ultimately provide theoretical guidance and decision-makingtorealizehealthyandrapiddevelopment
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