基于实时可靠性的电站设备状态评价
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摘要
为了客观评价设备状态和科学支持运行维修决策,引入了电站设备实时可靠性概念与方法。在利用相关分析获取电站设备监测参数分布规律的基础上,提出了电站设备实时可靠性模型。并将主成分分析法引入对设备状态进行综合评价,能够避免在系统分析中对权重的主观判断,使权重的分配更合理,减少了重叠信息的不良影响,克服变量之间的多重相关性,能够用一个统一的指标综合反映设备的状态,使不同的设备综合状态具有可比性。给出了基于实时可靠性的电站设备状态评价模型的具体流程,并通过实际案例验证该理论的有效、可行。
To evaluate objectively the condition of the equipment and support scientifically the decision-making of operation and maintenance in the power plant, this paper defined the concept of reliability and its studying method from the real-time perspective. The real-time reliability model was proposed based upon analyzing the distribution of characteristics of monitoring parameters. And principal component analysis (PCA), through which the weights can be determined in a more reasonable way rather than relying on the subjective assessment, was developed to evaluate the equipment condition comprehensively. Removing the adverse effects of overlapping information and multi-correlation of variables by PCA, a uniform indicator was used to represent the condition of the equipment and it would be much easier to compare the conditions of different equipment. The detailed process of the condition evaluation model based on real-time reliability was established in the paper, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the model was proved by the example finally.
To evaluate objectively the condition of the equipment and support scientifically the decision-making of operation and maintenance in the power plant, this paper defined the concept of reliability and its studying method from the real-time perspective. The real-time reliability model was proposed based upon analyzing the distribution of characteristics of monitoring parameters. And principal component analysis (PCA), through which the weights can be determined in a more reasonable way rather than relying on the subjective assessment, was developed to evaluate the equipment condition comprehensively. Removing the adverse effects of overlapping information and multi-correlation of variables by PCA, a uniform indicator was used to represent the condition of the equipment and it would be much easier to compare the conditions of different equipment. The detailed process of the condition evaluation model based on real-time reliability was established in the paper, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the model was proved by the example finally.
引文
[1]郭永基.电力系统可靠性原理和应用.北京：清华大学出版社,1983
[2]Kim Y S, Kolarik W J. Real-time conditional reliability prediction from on-line tool performance data. International Journal of Production Research,1992,30(8):1831-1844
[3]Chinnam R B. On-line reliability estimation for individual components using statistical degradation signalmodels. Quality and Reliability Engineering Internationa, 2002,18(1):53-73
[4]Gebraeel N Z, LawleyM A, LiR, Ryan JK. Residual-life distributions from component degradation signals:aBayesian approach [J]. HE Transactions,2005,37: 543-557
[5]GebraeelN Z. Sensory-upda ted residual life distributions for components with exponential degradation patterns [J]. IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering,2006,3(4):382-393
[6]Lu H, Kolarik W J, Lu S S. Real-time performance reliability prediction [J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2001,50(4):353-357
[7]Chinnam R B, Baruah P. A neuro-fuzzy approach for estimating mean residual life in condition-based maintenance systems [J]. International Journal of Materials and Product Technology,2004,20(1):166-179
[8]Lu S, Lu H, Kolarik W J. Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2001,72:39-45
[9]My tyri E, Pulkkinen U, Smi ola K. Application ofstochastic filtering for lifetime prediction [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2006,91:200-208
[10]Wang W. A prognosismodel forwear prediction based on oil-basedmonitoring [J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society,2007,58:887-893
[11]Dong M, He D. A segmental hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM)-based diagnostics and prognostics framework and methodology [J]. Mechanical System and SignalProcessing,2007,21:2248-2266
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[16]丁明,张瑞华.发输电组合系统可靠性评估的蒙特卡罗模拟.电网技术,2000,24(3)：9-12
[17]孙元章,程林,刘海涛.基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估.电网技术,2005,29(15)：6-12
[18]刘海涛,程林,孙元章.基于实时运行条件的元件停运因素分析与停运率建模.电力系统及其自动化,2007,31(7)：6-11
[19]刘海涛,程林,孙元章,等.采用瞬时概率的运行可靠性短期评估.中国电机工程学报,2008,28(13)：20-25
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[21]He J, Cheng L, Sun Y-Z. Transformer real-time reliability model based on operating conditions [J]. Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A,2007,8(3):378-383
[22]《火力发电机组可靠性评价实施办法(试行)》,2007
[23]左晓文.2005年发电机组运行可靠性分析.电力设备,2006,7(9)：82-88
[24]左晓文,周宏.2006年全国发电可靠性统计分析.中国电力,2007,40(12)：48-54
[25]左晓文.2007年发电机组运行可靠性分析.电力设备,2008,9(12)：107-112
[26]曹钟中,杨昆,顾煜炯,等.汽轮机及其辅助设备系统以可靠性为中心的维修(RCM)的技术分析原则.国际电力,2002,6(3)：30-35
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[28]董玉亮.火电机组可靠性评估与维修决策支持系统：[博士论文].北京：华北电力大学,2005
[29]游联欢.基于SRCM的发电设备维修决策及优化模型研究：[硕士论文]北京：华北电力大学,2006
[30]王清.基于FMEA和FTA的故障诊断技术及其在DEH系统中的应用：[硕士论文].北京：华北电力大学,2004
[31]赵建印.基于性能退化数据的可靠性建模与应用研究：[博士论文].北京：国防科技大学,2005
[32]Moubray John. Reliability centred maintenance [M]. Butterworth-Heinnemann, 1997.
[33]周东华,徐正国.工程系统的实时可靠性评估与预测技术.空间控制技术与应用,2008.34(4)：3-10
[34]胡超斌.神舟飞船热控系统循环泵可靠性评估技术研究：[硕士论文].北京：国防 科技大学,2004
[35]肖官和.汽轮机DEH调节系统状态评价方法的研究：[硕士论文].北京：华北电力大学,2005
[36]杨光军.基于多元统计分析的火电厂控制系统故障诊断研究：[博士论文].北京：华北电力大学,2006
[37]何晓群.现代统计分析方法与应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1999
[38]程铁信,吴浩刚,孙锡衡.一种基于主成分分析的评价方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000(2)：118-121
[39]王琦,徐式蕴,赵睿涛,等.MATLAB基础与应用实例集萃.北京：人民邮电出版社,2007
[40]张昆,毕靖,从滨.MATLAB7.6从入门到精通.北京：电子工业出版社,2009
[2]Kim Y S, Kolarik W J. Real-time conditional reliability prediction from on-line tool performance data. International Journal of Production Research,1992,30(8):1831-1844
[3]Chinnam R B. On-line reliability estimation for individual components using statistical degradation signalmodels. Quality and Reliability Engineering Internationa, 2002,18(1):53-73
[4]Gebraeel N Z, LawleyM A, LiR, Ryan JK. Residual-life distributions from component degradation signals:aBayesian approach [J]. HE Transactions,2005,37: 543-557
[5]GebraeelN Z. Sensory-upda ted residual life distributions for components with exponential degradation patterns [J]. IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineering,2006,3(4):382-393
[6]Lu H, Kolarik W J, Lu S S. Real-time performance reliability prediction [J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2001,50(4):353-357
[7]Chinnam R B, Baruah P. A neuro-fuzzy approach for estimating mean residual life in condition-based maintenance systems [J]. International Journal of Materials and Product Technology,2004,20(1):166-179
[8]Lu S, Lu H, Kolarik W J. Multivariate performance reliability prediction in real-time [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2001,72:39-45
[9]My tyri E, Pulkkinen U, Smi ola K. Application ofstochastic filtering for lifetime prediction [J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2006,91:200-208
[10]Wang W. A prognosismodel forwear prediction based on oil-basedmonitoring [J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society,2007,58:887-893
[11]Dong M, He D. A segmental hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM)-based diagnostics and prognostics framework and methodology [J]. Mechanical System and SignalProcessing,2007,21:2248-2266
[12]张子剑,钟强晖,张志华.退化产品可靠性评估方法的研究.中国惯性技术学报2007,15(6)：752-755
[13]邓爱民,陈循,张春华,等.基于性能退化数据的可靠性评估.宇航学报,2006,27(3)：546-552
[14]赵建印.基于性能退化数据的可靠性建模与应用研究：[博士论文].北京：国防科技大学,2005
[15]赵熠,董豆豆,周经伦,等.基于贝叶斯方法的退化失效型产品实时可靠性评估.国防科技大学学报,2007,29(6)：116-120
[16]丁明,张瑞华.发输电组合系统可靠性评估的蒙特卡罗模拟.电网技术,2000,24(3)：9-12
[17]孙元章,程林,刘海涛.基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估.电网技术,2005,29(15)：6-12
[18]刘海涛,程林,孙元章.基于实时运行条件的元件停运因素分析与停运率建模.电力系统及其自动化,2007,31(7)：6-11
[19]刘海涛,程林,孙元章,等.采用瞬时概率的运行可靠性短期评估.中国电机工程学报,2008,28(13)：20-25
[20]孙元章,刘海涛,程林,等.运行可靠性在线短期评估方案.电力系统及其自动化,2008,32(3)：3-8
[21]He J, Cheng L, Sun Y-Z. Transformer real-time reliability model based on operating conditions [J]. Journal of Zhejiang University SCIENCE A,2007,8(3):378-383
[22]《火力发电机组可靠性评价实施办法(试行)》,2007
[23]左晓文.2005年发电机组运行可靠性分析.电力设备,2006,7(9)：82-88
[24]左晓文,周宏.2006年全国发电可靠性统计分析.中国电力,2007,40(12)：48-54
[25]左晓文.2007年发电机组运行可靠性分析.电力设备,2008,9(12)：107-112
[26]曹钟中,杨昆,顾煜炯,等.汽轮机及其辅助设备系统以可靠性为中心的维修(RCM)的技术分析原则.国际电力,2002,6(3)：30-35
[27]D.H.Stamatis著,陈晓彤,姚绍华译.FMEA从理论到实践[M].北京：国防工业出版社,2005.
[28]董玉亮.火电机组可靠性评估与维修决策支持系统：[博士论文].北京：华北电力大学,2005
[29]游联欢.基于SRCM的发电设备维修决策及优化模型研究：[硕士论文]北京：华北电力大学,2006
[30]王清.基于FMEA和FTA的故障诊断技术及其在DEH系统中的应用：[硕士论文].北京：华北电力大学,2004
[31]赵建印.基于性能退化数据的可靠性建模与应用研究：[博士论文].北京：国防科技大学,2005
[32]Moubray John. Reliability centred maintenance [M]. Butterworth-Heinnemann, 1997.
[33]周东华,徐正国.工程系统的实时可靠性评估与预测技术.空间控制技术与应用,2008.34(4)：3-10
[34]胡超斌.神舟飞船热控系统循环泵可靠性评估技术研究：[硕士论文].北京：国防 科技大学,2004
[35]肖官和.汽轮机DEH调节系统状态评价方法的研究：[硕士论文].北京：华北电力大学,2005
[36]杨光军.基于多元统计分析的火电厂控制系统故障诊断研究：[博士论文].北京：华北电力大学,2006
[37]何晓群.现代统计分析方法与应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1999
[38]程铁信,吴浩刚,孙锡衡.一种基于主成分分析的评价方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000(2)：118-121
[39]王琦,徐式蕴,赵睿涛,等.MATLAB基础与应用实例集萃.北京：人民邮电出版社,2007
[40]张昆,毕靖,从滨.MATLAB7.6从入门到精通.北京：电子工业出版社,2009