电力系统电压安全风险评估及其应用研究
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摘要
电压安全评估一直是电力系统安全性分析中的重要内容之一。随着我国电力系统在物理特性和经济特性方面的巨变,加快建立与新运行环境相适应的电力系统电压安全评估的方法和标准已显得日益紧迫。因此,进行新环境下的电压安全分析无疑是一项具有挑战性的工作,其研究价值也是不言而喻的。
本文以电力系统电压安全为背景,针对电压安全的主要内容——电压越限和电压稳定,在静态分析的范畴内进行安全评估相关理论及其应用研究,集中研究电压安全的确定性和风险评估的模型方法,并针对风电并网系统的运行特点进行了模型的适应性改进和应用。
首先,在电压安全的确定性方法研究中,证明了基于含参数化潮流的网损灵敏度二阶指标在接近崩溃点处的线性特性,并基于此特性提出了利用基于含参数化潮流的网损灵敏度二阶指标获取电压稳定裕度的改进方法,为本文提出的快速综合法提供了一定的理论依据。在此基础上,提出了将基于参数化潮流的网损灵敏度二阶指标与基于灵敏度预估校正技术和二分法等三种技术相结合的综合法,用于灵活求取考虑发电机有功功率和无功功率约束的基于鞍结分岔、基于极限诱导分岔和基于运行极限的三种电压稳定负荷裕度,并通过简化、改进实现了综合法的快速应用。
在电压安全确定性评估研究的基础上,本文在电压安全的风险指标及其灵敏度计算的不确定性方法研究中,采用快速综合法、事故快速筛选和排序和概率评估的解析法获取风险指标,提高了风险指标求取的速度,并进行了灵敏度评估。在应用基础方面,本文针对并网风电场不同的发电机,分析了不同模型和控制模式对潮流模型的影响,并对电压稳定综合法进行改进。针对同时考虑正态分布的负荷和韦伯分布的风速两种随机波动因素的含并网风电场系统,采用了半不变量方法对随机变量间进行卷积运算,且应用Edgeworth级数展开式逼近获取同时考虑负荷和风速随机性的电压幅值和电压负荷裕度的概率分布,并进一步进行电压安全的风险评估。
最后,针对含并网风电场的辽宁电网的应用背景,采用本文提出的分析方法进行了电压安全及其风险评估应用案例分析,对辽宁电网在正常运行方式下和N-1事故方式下的电压安全性进行全面评估。案例分析结果表明,本文提出的电压安全及其风险评估的方法,快速、有效,是一种适应新环境下的电力系统电压安全分析方法和工具。
Voltage security assessment has been the most important part of the security assessment for power system and it is also one of the hot points in current power system research. With the great changes of China's power system in physical and economic characteristic, the method and standard for voltage assessment should been changed accordingly under such new operational environment. So the voltage assessment is also a challenge and meaningful task today.
This thesis pays more attention to the model and algorithm improvement both in deterministic and risk assessment with steady state method in low voltage and voltage stability area, and then their applications and improvements on the power system with the integration of large wind farms are also presented.
Firstly, in deterministic assessment, the provement for the linearity of second order loss sensitivity near PoC (Point of Collapse) and the improvement for determining PoC based on second order loss sensitivity are presented. These results will provide basic theory for the comprehensive methods. And then the comprehensive method based on the second order loss sensitivity with load parameter, predict/correct technical and dichotomy is proposed. This method can determine the load margin constrained by three restrictions such as SNB (saddle node bifurcation), LIB (limit induced bifurcation) and the operation limit. And the generation restrictions of active and reactive power are also considered. Moreover the comprehensive method is simplified to satisfy the quickness requirement.
Secondly, in risk assessment, this thesis makes efforts to find a more suitable way to economize computational time for risk index and its sensitivity calculation with the techniques such as the quick comprehensive method, the CS&R (Contingency Screening and Ranking) method and analytical method of probability assessment.
Thirdly, according to the different generator units with the different characteristic and control modle, the modifications for power flow as well as the comprehensive method is carried out. And voltage security risk assessment for power system integrating large wind farms is presented, which takes into account two uncertainties such as the load uncertainty with normal distribution and the wind speed with weilbull distribution. And the semi-invariant method and Edgeworth series expansion are adopted to find the voltage and load margin's density functions and distributions, and then their risk indices.
Finally, the voltage security assessment for LiaoNin power system integrating large wind farms under normal and N-1 contigency is carried out to demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the former researches under new circumstance.
本文以电力系统电压安全为背景,针对电压安全的主要内容——电压越限和电压稳定,在静态分析的范畴内进行安全评估相关理论及其应用研究,集中研究电压安全的确定性和风险评估的模型方法,并针对风电并网系统的运行特点进行了模型的适应性改进和应用。
首先,在电压安全的确定性方法研究中,证明了基于含参数化潮流的网损灵敏度二阶指标在接近崩溃点处的线性特性,并基于此特性提出了利用基于含参数化潮流的网损灵敏度二阶指标获取电压稳定裕度的改进方法,为本文提出的快速综合法提供了一定的理论依据。在此基础上,提出了将基于参数化潮流的网损灵敏度二阶指标与基于灵敏度预估校正技术和二分法等三种技术相结合的综合法,用于灵活求取考虑发电机有功功率和无功功率约束的基于鞍结分岔、基于极限诱导分岔和基于运行极限的三种电压稳定负荷裕度,并通过简化、改进实现了综合法的快速应用。
在电压安全确定性评估研究的基础上,本文在电压安全的风险指标及其灵敏度计算的不确定性方法研究中,采用快速综合法、事故快速筛选和排序和概率评估的解析法获取风险指标,提高了风险指标求取的速度,并进行了灵敏度评估。在应用基础方面,本文针对并网风电场不同的发电机,分析了不同模型和控制模式对潮流模型的影响,并对电压稳定综合法进行改进。针对同时考虑正态分布的负荷和韦伯分布的风速两种随机波动因素的含并网风电场系统,采用了半不变量方法对随机变量间进行卷积运算,且应用Edgeworth级数展开式逼近获取同时考虑负荷和风速随机性的电压幅值和电压负荷裕度的概率分布,并进一步进行电压安全的风险评估。
最后,针对含并网风电场的辽宁电网的应用背景,采用本文提出的分析方法进行了电压安全及其风险评估应用案例分析,对辽宁电网在正常运行方式下和N-1事故方式下的电压安全性进行全面评估。案例分析结果表明,本文提出的电压安全及其风险评估的方法,快速、有效,是一种适应新环境下的电力系统电压安全分析方法和工具。
Voltage security assessment has been the most important part of the security assessment for power system and it is also one of the hot points in current power system research. With the great changes of China's power system in physical and economic characteristic, the method and standard for voltage assessment should been changed accordingly under such new operational environment. So the voltage assessment is also a challenge and meaningful task today.
This thesis pays more attention to the model and algorithm improvement both in deterministic and risk assessment with steady state method in low voltage and voltage stability area, and then their applications and improvements on the power system with the integration of large wind farms are also presented.
Firstly, in deterministic assessment, the provement for the linearity of second order loss sensitivity near PoC (Point of Collapse) and the improvement for determining PoC based on second order loss sensitivity are presented. These results will provide basic theory for the comprehensive methods. And then the comprehensive method based on the second order loss sensitivity with load parameter, predict/correct technical and dichotomy is proposed. This method can determine the load margin constrained by three restrictions such as SNB (saddle node bifurcation), LIB (limit induced bifurcation) and the operation limit. And the generation restrictions of active and reactive power are also considered. Moreover the comprehensive method is simplified to satisfy the quickness requirement.
Secondly, in risk assessment, this thesis makes efforts to find a more suitable way to economize computational time for risk index and its sensitivity calculation with the techniques such as the quick comprehensive method, the CS&R (Contingency Screening and Ranking) method and analytical method of probability assessment.
Thirdly, according to the different generator units with the different characteristic and control modle, the modifications for power flow as well as the comprehensive method is carried out. And voltage security risk assessment for power system integrating large wind farms is presented, which takes into account two uncertainties such as the load uncertainty with normal distribution and the wind speed with weilbull distribution. And the semi-invariant method and Edgeworth series expansion are adopted to find the voltage and load margin's density functions and distributions, and then their risk indices.
Finally, the voltage security assessment for LiaoNin power system integrating large wind farms under normal and N-1 contigency is carried out to demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the former researches under new circumstance.
引文
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