金融发展、金融结构变迁与经济增长研究
摘要
20世纪90年代以来,全球经济发展重要特征之一是金融资产总量对GDP比率迅速上升,同时各国之间金融发展和金融结构又存在较大差异,进行金融发展和金融结构国别研究具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。泰国是典型小开放经济体、“亚洲奇迹”的代表性国家以及1997年亚洲金融危机发源地,80年代后期以来,泰国经历了金融抑制、金融自由化、金融危机和危机后大规模金融重组与改革,金融发展、金融结构和经济增长均发生巨大改变,是金融发展、金融结构和经济增长关系国别研究的较好案例。
本文综合运用金融发展、二分法金融结构与经济增长理论以及其他经济学、管理学理论,采用实证与规范分析、历史与比较分析、定性与定量分析、宏观与微观分析相结合的方法,以泰国金融发展、金融结构变迁和经济增长为研究核心,对泰国经济增长、银行业、股票市场、债券市场发展历程进行深入分析,在此基础上对泰国金融自由化以来金融发展、金融结构变迁以及银行业、股票市场、债券市场与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,对泰国金融发展与金融结构变迁的动因、成效与不足进行了总结,并提出了促进泰国经济增长目标下关于金融发展和金融结构的政策建议。
全文共分八章。第一章在介绍选题背景和选题意义基础上,对本文研究目标、研究思路、研究方法和创新之处进行了简要介绍。第二章在对金融发展和二分法金融结构与经济增长理论文献综述的基础上,对银行主导型和市场主导型经济模式特征和发展进行了比较,并对金融结构变迁与经济增长的关系进行了进一步分析,作为全文理论基础。第三章从金融视角回顾了泰国经济增长历程及金融危机前后经济增长特征的差异,归纳出泰国经济外延型增长和依赖于投资拉动的特点,金融危机后泰国储蓄率保持稳定,投资率大幅度下降,说明金融体系投资-储蓄转化功能弱化,是导致泰国经济增长趋缓的直接原因。第四章回顾了泰国金融中介发展与经济增长,早期银行业是泰国主要资本配置渠道,金融自由化阶段这一功能有所削弱,金融危机后贷款投放经历了长期萎缩,近年来银行业资产组合转向以购买政府债券和发放消费贷款为主,工商业贷款萎缩,储蓄投资转换功能下降。国有专门金融机构主要按政府指导投放信贷,其他非银行金融中介则以个人业务为主。第五章对泰国金融市场发展与经济增长进行了回顾,泰国股票市场先后由于金融自由化时期上市企业增多及外资流入拉动、他信执政时期推行大型国企上市私有化,出现两次较大的繁荣；泰国债券市场在金融危机后因危机成本财政化及对冲外汇储备占款推动,政府债券余额迅速扩大,国有企业及大型私企也逐步将债券融资作为重要渠道,债券市场取得长足发展；泰国金融市场存在发行集中于个别行业和企业,市场规模小,产品单一,流动性低等不足。第六章对泰国金融发展、金融结构变迁以及银行业、股票市场、债券市场和经济增长相互关系进行实证研究,研究期间分为金融自由化时期、后金融危机时期两个主要阶段,运用月度数据,在向量自回归和向量误差修正模型框架内进行多变量因果关系测试研究。金融发展、金融结构与经济增长的实证研究表明,从长期看,银行主导型金融结构在两个时期均有益于经济增长,以金融规模度量的金融发展在金融自由化时期有益于经济增长,在后金融危机时期则相反,说明后金融危机时期以金融市场主导的金融发展对经济增长效应为负。银行业、股票市场、债券市场与经济增长的实证研究表明,由于金融市场包括股票和债券市场资源配置流向不合理,泰国后金融危机时期以债券市场和股票市场为主导金融规模的扩张无益于经济成长,表明市场导向型并不适合于泰国；银行业对经济增长的长期效用始终为正,其发展应得到大力支持,以提升经济长期增长潜力。第七章对泰国金融发展与结构变迁进行了总结,认为金融变迁动因在于泰国政府政策、经济增长方式、银行信贷投放和企业融资结构的转变,虽有利于经济金融体系的稳定,但履行储蓄-投资转化的基本功能弱化,金融部门规模发展缓慢,导致资源配置不当,尤其是中小企业和农村地区金融通路缺失,在此基础上提出了促进经济增长目标下对泰国金融和金融结构的政策建议。第八章进行了全文总结和研究展望。
总结全文,泰国1997年金融危机后,金融结构向市场导向型强制性变迁,股票市场主要由国有企业私营化改造推动,发展出现较大波动,债券市场扩张也主要是由危机成本财政化和外汇储备占款所导致的被动增长,银行中介发展受到抑制,实体经济部门金融通路甚至出现萎缩的趋势,实际上制约了整个金融部门配置资源的功能。根据实证研究结论,金融危机后市场主导的金融发展无益于经济增长,而银行导向型金融结构能够促进经济增长,所以银行业发展应得到大力支持,以提升经济长期增长潜力。同时也应该看到,泰国属于典型的中低收入发展中国家,二元经济结构特征显著,金融中介和金融市场都有其存在价值和发展的空间。金融发展和金融结构调整应注重银行业的发展,而不应过于关注金融系统是市场导向型还是中介导向型。泰国应通过加强法律制度体系建设,整合监管体系,完善金融通路,提高银行业竞争水平和资本市场多元化,强化银行业和金融市场的联结和协同,提高金融体系效率和规模。
Since 1990's, one of important characteristics of global economic development is the ratio of financial assets to GDP rose rapidly, and the level of financial development and financial structure of various countries are quite different. There are great theoretical and practical significances for country study on financial development and financial structure. Thailand is a typical small open economy, one of typical countries of "Asian miracle", as well as the birthplace of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Since the late 1980's, Thailand has experienced financial repression, financial liberalization, financial crisis and large-scale post-crisis financial restructuring and financial reform. Financial development, financial structure and economic growth in Thailand have experienced major changes, so Thailand is a good case for country study on relationship between financial development, financial structure and economic growth.
This thesis comprehensively utilizes financial development, financial structure and economic growth theory, as well as other economics theory, management theory, through empirical and normative analysis, historical and comparative analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and macro-and micro-analysis approach, focuses on financial development, financial structure transition and economic growth in Thailand. The thesis conducts in-depth study on development history of growth, banking, stock market, bond market in Thailand. This thesis conducts empirical study on the relationship between financial development, financial structure transition, banking industry, stock market, bond market and economic growth since financial liberalization in Thailand, and also concludes the causes, effects and deficiencies and proposes appropriate policies for Thai financial development and financial structure transition under the target of economic growth.
The thesis is divided into eight chapters. ChapterⅠintroduces the background and the significance of this study, and also conduct a brief introduction of the objectives, processes, methods, and innovations of this study. ChapterⅡcompares the characteristics and development of bank-oriented economies and market-oriented economies, analyzes the relationship between economic growth and financial structure transition based on review the literature of financial development, financial structure and growth. ChapterⅢprovides Thailand's economic growth history and different characteristics of economic growth before and after financial crisis from the view of finance, concludes the characteristics that Thai economy depends on the investment-led growth. After 1997 financial crisis, Thailand's savings rate kept at a relatively high level, but investment rate decreased significantly, it indicated that financial system's function of saving-investment transformation has been weakened. It is also a direct reason for the slow economic growth in Thailand. ChapterⅣreviews the development of financial intermediation and economic growth in Thailand, the banking industry in early period was the major channel of capital allocation, during financial liberalization phase the function was weakened; after financial crisis credits especially loans to commercial sector and industrial sector decreased, then the portfolio structure of banking industry transferred to government bonds and consumer loans, and saving-investment transformation is also weakened; the state-owned specialized financial institutions mainly provide loans under the government's guide, while the other non-bank financial intermediaries mainly provide consumer loans. ChapterⅤreviews financial market development and economic growth in Thailand, there were two greater prosperity of SET during the period of financial liberalization with many IPOs and overseas funding support, and the period under Thaksin government with large-scale privatization of state-owned enterprises; after the financial crisis, Thai Bond market was promoted by the finance for crisis cost and the increase of foreign exchange reserve, the outstanding of government bonds expanded rapidly, the state-owned enterprises and large private enterprises gradually utilized bond financing as a major financing channel, the bond market's progress significantly; there are still some shortcomings of Thai financial markets, such as concentration in few sectors and enterprises, small scale, few products, and low liquidity, etc.. ChapterⅥconducts empirical studies on the relationship between economic growth and financial development, financial structure, banking industry, stock market, bond market, the study period is divided into financial liberalization and post-crisis period, and conducts multivariate causality test based on monthly data under the framework of the vector error correction model. The empirical study on the relationship of financial development, financial structure and economic growth indicates that the banking-oriented financial structure is helpful for economic growth for both periods in long term, while financial development measured by the financial scale was helpful for economic growth during the financial liberalization period, but was harmful during the post-crisis period, so the financial development led by financial market is negative for economic growth during the post-crisis period. The empirical study on the relationship of banking industry, stock market, bond market and economic growth also indicates that the financial expansion led by financial market in the post-crisis period is not helpful for growth because of the improper capital allocation of financial market, including SET and bond market, and it is also indicates that the market-oriented model is not fit for Thailand. However, banking industry's long-term function for growth is positive, so the development of banking industry shall be supported to improve the long-term growth potential. ChapterⅦconclude that the causes of Thai financial development and financial structure transition are the transformations of Thai government policy, economic growth model, credit policy of banking industry and financial structure of corporate sector. Thai financial development and structure transition is helpful for the stability of economy and financial system, but its function of saving-investment transformation was weakened, the financial sector developed slowly, and results in the inappropriate capital allocation, especially the lack of financial access to small and medium enterprises and rural areas in Thailand. Based on the abovementioned studies, the thesis proposes policies under the target of economic growth for Thai financial structure and financial development. ChapterⅧprovides summary and research prospects as a conclusion.
In conclusion, after the 1997 financial crisis, the financial structure of Thailand was forced to be more market-oriented, stock market expansion was mainly driven by the privatization of state-owned enterprises, and bond market expansion was mainly be driven by the crisis cost and foreign exchange reserves in a passive manner, the development of banking and intermediaries were repressed, and financial access for the real economy sector was shrinking, actually allocation functions of the entire financial sector was reduced. According to the empirical conclusion, the financial expansion led by financial market is not helpful for growth, and the bank-oriented financial structure is helpful for growth, so the banking sector shall be supported strongly to improve the growth potential. Because Thailand is a typical middle-low income developing country and dual economic characteristic is distinct, both the financial intermediaries and financial market have value and room for development. The financial development and financial structure should be a collaborative model between the financial intermediaries and financial markets, and also should attaches importance on banking industry from now on. Whether the financial system is market-oriented or intermediary-oriented should not be overemphasized. Thailand should improve financial efficiency and expand size of financial system by strengthening the rules and regulations system, integrating supervisory institutions, improving financial access, increasing competition degree of banking system, diversifying capital market, strengthening links and co-operations between banking and financial market.
本文综合运用金融发展、二分法金融结构与经济增长理论以及其他经济学、管理学理论,采用实证与规范分析、历史与比较分析、定性与定量分析、宏观与微观分析相结合的方法,以泰国金融发展、金融结构变迁和经济增长为研究核心,对泰国经济增长、银行业、股票市场、债券市场发展历程进行深入分析,在此基础上对泰国金融自由化以来金融发展、金融结构变迁以及银行业、股票市场、债券市场与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,对泰国金融发展与金融结构变迁的动因、成效与不足进行了总结,并提出了促进泰国经济增长目标下关于金融发展和金融结构的政策建议。
全文共分八章。第一章在介绍选题背景和选题意义基础上,对本文研究目标、研究思路、研究方法和创新之处进行了简要介绍。第二章在对金融发展和二分法金融结构与经济增长理论文献综述的基础上,对银行主导型和市场主导型经济模式特征和发展进行了比较,并对金融结构变迁与经济增长的关系进行了进一步分析,作为全文理论基础。第三章从金融视角回顾了泰国经济增长历程及金融危机前后经济增长特征的差异,归纳出泰国经济外延型增长和依赖于投资拉动的特点,金融危机后泰国储蓄率保持稳定,投资率大幅度下降,说明金融体系投资-储蓄转化功能弱化,是导致泰国经济增长趋缓的直接原因。第四章回顾了泰国金融中介发展与经济增长,早期银行业是泰国主要资本配置渠道,金融自由化阶段这一功能有所削弱,金融危机后贷款投放经历了长期萎缩,近年来银行业资产组合转向以购买政府债券和发放消费贷款为主,工商业贷款萎缩,储蓄投资转换功能下降。国有专门金融机构主要按政府指导投放信贷,其他非银行金融中介则以个人业务为主。第五章对泰国金融市场发展与经济增长进行了回顾,泰国股票市场先后由于金融自由化时期上市企业增多及外资流入拉动、他信执政时期推行大型国企上市私有化,出现两次较大的繁荣；泰国债券市场在金融危机后因危机成本财政化及对冲外汇储备占款推动,政府债券余额迅速扩大,国有企业及大型私企也逐步将债券融资作为重要渠道,债券市场取得长足发展；泰国金融市场存在发行集中于个别行业和企业,市场规模小,产品单一,流动性低等不足。第六章对泰国金融发展、金融结构变迁以及银行业、股票市场、债券市场和经济增长相互关系进行实证研究,研究期间分为金融自由化时期、后金融危机时期两个主要阶段,运用月度数据,在向量自回归和向量误差修正模型框架内进行多变量因果关系测试研究。金融发展、金融结构与经济增长的实证研究表明,从长期看,银行主导型金融结构在两个时期均有益于经济增长,以金融规模度量的金融发展在金融自由化时期有益于经济增长,在后金融危机时期则相反,说明后金融危机时期以金融市场主导的金融发展对经济增长效应为负。银行业、股票市场、债券市场与经济增长的实证研究表明,由于金融市场包括股票和债券市场资源配置流向不合理,泰国后金融危机时期以债券市场和股票市场为主导金融规模的扩张无益于经济成长,表明市场导向型并不适合于泰国；银行业对经济增长的长期效用始终为正,其发展应得到大力支持,以提升经济长期增长潜力。第七章对泰国金融发展与结构变迁进行了总结,认为金融变迁动因在于泰国政府政策、经济增长方式、银行信贷投放和企业融资结构的转变,虽有利于经济金融体系的稳定,但履行储蓄-投资转化的基本功能弱化,金融部门规模发展缓慢,导致资源配置不当,尤其是中小企业和农村地区金融通路缺失,在此基础上提出了促进经济增长目标下对泰国金融和金融结构的政策建议。第八章进行了全文总结和研究展望。
总结全文,泰国1997年金融危机后,金融结构向市场导向型强制性变迁,股票市场主要由国有企业私营化改造推动,发展出现较大波动,债券市场扩张也主要是由危机成本财政化和外汇储备占款所导致的被动增长,银行中介发展受到抑制,实体经济部门金融通路甚至出现萎缩的趋势,实际上制约了整个金融部门配置资源的功能。根据实证研究结论,金融危机后市场主导的金融发展无益于经济增长,而银行导向型金融结构能够促进经济增长,所以银行业发展应得到大力支持,以提升经济长期增长潜力。同时也应该看到,泰国属于典型的中低收入发展中国家,二元经济结构特征显著,金融中介和金融市场都有其存在价值和发展的空间。金融发展和金融结构调整应注重银行业的发展,而不应过于关注金融系统是市场导向型还是中介导向型。泰国应通过加强法律制度体系建设,整合监管体系,完善金融通路,提高银行业竞争水平和资本市场多元化,强化银行业和金融市场的联结和协同,提高金融体系效率和规模。
Since 1990's, one of important characteristics of global economic development is the ratio of financial assets to GDP rose rapidly, and the level of financial development and financial structure of various countries are quite different. There are great theoretical and practical significances for country study on financial development and financial structure. Thailand is a typical small open economy, one of typical countries of "Asian miracle", as well as the birthplace of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Since the late 1980's, Thailand has experienced financial repression, financial liberalization, financial crisis and large-scale post-crisis financial restructuring and financial reform. Financial development, financial structure and economic growth in Thailand have experienced major changes, so Thailand is a good case for country study on relationship between financial development, financial structure and economic growth.
This thesis comprehensively utilizes financial development, financial structure and economic growth theory, as well as other economics theory, management theory, through empirical and normative analysis, historical and comparative analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and macro-and micro-analysis approach, focuses on financial development, financial structure transition and economic growth in Thailand. The thesis conducts in-depth study on development history of growth, banking, stock market, bond market in Thailand. This thesis conducts empirical study on the relationship between financial development, financial structure transition, banking industry, stock market, bond market and economic growth since financial liberalization in Thailand, and also concludes the causes, effects and deficiencies and proposes appropriate policies for Thai financial development and financial structure transition under the target of economic growth.
The thesis is divided into eight chapters. ChapterⅠintroduces the background and the significance of this study, and also conduct a brief introduction of the objectives, processes, methods, and innovations of this study. ChapterⅡcompares the characteristics and development of bank-oriented economies and market-oriented economies, analyzes the relationship between economic growth and financial structure transition based on review the literature of financial development, financial structure and growth. ChapterⅢprovides Thailand's economic growth history and different characteristics of economic growth before and after financial crisis from the view of finance, concludes the characteristics that Thai economy depends on the investment-led growth. After 1997 financial crisis, Thailand's savings rate kept at a relatively high level, but investment rate decreased significantly, it indicated that financial system's function of saving-investment transformation has been weakened. It is also a direct reason for the slow economic growth in Thailand. ChapterⅣreviews the development of financial intermediation and economic growth in Thailand, the banking industry in early period was the major channel of capital allocation, during financial liberalization phase the function was weakened; after financial crisis credits especially loans to commercial sector and industrial sector decreased, then the portfolio structure of banking industry transferred to government bonds and consumer loans, and saving-investment transformation is also weakened; the state-owned specialized financial institutions mainly provide loans under the government's guide, while the other non-bank financial intermediaries mainly provide consumer loans. ChapterⅤreviews financial market development and economic growth in Thailand, there were two greater prosperity of SET during the period of financial liberalization with many IPOs and overseas funding support, and the period under Thaksin government with large-scale privatization of state-owned enterprises; after the financial crisis, Thai Bond market was promoted by the finance for crisis cost and the increase of foreign exchange reserve, the outstanding of government bonds expanded rapidly, the state-owned enterprises and large private enterprises gradually utilized bond financing as a major financing channel, the bond market's progress significantly; there are still some shortcomings of Thai financial markets, such as concentration in few sectors and enterprises, small scale, few products, and low liquidity, etc.. ChapterⅥconducts empirical studies on the relationship between economic growth and financial development, financial structure, banking industry, stock market, bond market, the study period is divided into financial liberalization and post-crisis period, and conducts multivariate causality test based on monthly data under the framework of the vector error correction model. The empirical study on the relationship of financial development, financial structure and economic growth indicates that the banking-oriented financial structure is helpful for economic growth for both periods in long term, while financial development measured by the financial scale was helpful for economic growth during the financial liberalization period, but was harmful during the post-crisis period, so the financial development led by financial market is negative for economic growth during the post-crisis period. The empirical study on the relationship of banking industry, stock market, bond market and economic growth also indicates that the financial expansion led by financial market in the post-crisis period is not helpful for growth because of the improper capital allocation of financial market, including SET and bond market, and it is also indicates that the market-oriented model is not fit for Thailand. However, banking industry's long-term function for growth is positive, so the development of banking industry shall be supported to improve the long-term growth potential. ChapterⅦconclude that the causes of Thai financial development and financial structure transition are the transformations of Thai government policy, economic growth model, credit policy of banking industry and financial structure of corporate sector. Thai financial development and structure transition is helpful for the stability of economy and financial system, but its function of saving-investment transformation was weakened, the financial sector developed slowly, and results in the inappropriate capital allocation, especially the lack of financial access to small and medium enterprises and rural areas in Thailand. Based on the abovementioned studies, the thesis proposes policies under the target of economic growth for Thai financial structure and financial development. ChapterⅧprovides summary and research prospects as a conclusion.
In conclusion, after the 1997 financial crisis, the financial structure of Thailand was forced to be more market-oriented, stock market expansion was mainly driven by the privatization of state-owned enterprises, and bond market expansion was mainly be driven by the crisis cost and foreign exchange reserves in a passive manner, the development of banking and intermediaries were repressed, and financial access for the real economy sector was shrinking, actually allocation functions of the entire financial sector was reduced. According to the empirical conclusion, the financial expansion led by financial market is not helpful for growth, and the bank-oriented financial structure is helpful for growth, so the banking sector shall be supported strongly to improve the growth potential. Because Thailand is a typical middle-low income developing country and dual economic characteristic is distinct, both the financial intermediaries and financial market have value and room for development. The financial development and financial structure should be a collaborative model between the financial intermediaries and financial markets, and also should attaches importance on banking industry from now on. Whether the financial system is market-oriented or intermediary-oriented should not be overemphasized. Thailand should improve financial efficiency and expand size of financial system by strengthening the rules and regulations system, integrating supervisory institutions, improving financial access, increasing competition degree of banking system, diversifying capital market, strengthening links and co-operations between banking and financial market.
引文
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