济南东部城区水资源配置及泉水位模拟研究
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摘要
济南市是山东省的政治、经济、文化中心,人口较多,人均水资源量仅占全国人均水资源量的十分之一,城区人口则更加密集,水资源需求更大。济南素以“泉城”著称,以泉水闻名。然而,由于地下水盲目、过度开采,致使泉水自1975年春季开始出现断流,几乎年年有断流现象,另外用水结构不合理,用水效率低下、水资源管理机制不完善等使水资源供需差距逐渐增大,水资源的瓶颈制约作用越来越明显。因此必须对城区水资源进行统一管理、科学配置,实现水资源在城区不同区域和用水户之间的有效公平分配,从而实现水资源可持续利用,促进社会经济可持续发展。
本文在对已有国内外水资源配置的理论、方法进行分析研究的基础上,通过对城区社会经济进行分析,结合济南“泉城”的特色和要求,确定了城区水资源优化配置的目标和基本原则。在对济南城区和东部城区的需水量进行预测和对城区可供水量进行分析统计的基础上,进行了多次水资源供需平衡分析并建立了适用于济南的水资源优化配置模型。模型以区域缺水程度、区域供水净效益和工业用水和环境用水之间的公平性系数作为目标函数,以各水源地供给各用户的水量为决策变量。采用目标达到法求解的指导思想,结合东部城区水资源配置的基本思路,根据济南中心城区可能的不同供水情况对东部城区2010年、2015年和2020年三个水平年不同降水频率提出了多个水资源配置方案。结果表明在中心城区实施泉水先观后用的情况下,东部城区水资源配置结果更有利于社会经济可持续发展。此外,为更好地实现保持泉群可持续喷涌的目标,本文还运用多元回归模型对地下水水位变化(以月为单位)进行了模拟,模型整体拟合结果较好,建议采用分段拟合模型进行地下水水位预测,从而对地下水的开采实行动态管理。
对济南东部城区的水资源优化配置和地下水水位模拟预测研究,有助于实现优水优用、近水近用和地下水位动态控制的目标,使有限的水资源发挥最大的社会经济和环境效益,对实现济南水资源可持续利用,保证泉群持续喷涌和社会经济可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。
Jinan is the the political, economic and cultural center of Shandong Province with a big population, per capita water resources of which accounts for only one-tenth of the national per capita water resources. Urban population is more dense. Jinan is famous for its springs. However, due to groundwater over-exploitation, the spring has begun drying up since the 1975, which occur almost every year. In additional irrational water structure, inefficient water use, inadequate water resource management mechanisms make the gap between supply and demand of water resources gradually increased. The bottleneck of water resources have become increasingly evident. Therefore it is necessary to do unified manage and scientific allocation of urban water resources to realize effective and equitable distribution between different regions and water users so that sustainable utilization of water resources and socio-economic development can be achieved.
Based on the analysis on theory and methods of domestic and international water resources allocation, this article has determined the objectives, tasks, basic principles of urban optimal water resources allocation combining characteristics and requirements of Spring-Jinan through the urban zoning and the regional socio-economic situation analysis. The optimal allocation model of water resources applicable for Jinan City has been set up based on a number of regional water resources supply and demand balance calculation.The model take the extent of the lack of water, the net benefits of regional water supply and the fairness coefficient between industrial water and environmental water as the objective function and the water supply for each user as decision-making variables. The guiding ideology of Objectives achieve method is adopted combining the basic ideas of the eastern urban water resources allocation. A number of water resources allocation programs for eastern district are raised on different precipitation frequency of 2010,2015 and 2020 three level years,according to different possible water supply situation of downtown. Results show that it is better for sustainable socio-economic in the case that the spring water is reused in downtown. Moreover, in order to better achieve the objectives of spring sustainable spewing, this article also used multiple regression model to simulate urban groundwater level change (in units of months). The model fitting results overall is good. Sub-fitting model is recommended to predict groundwater level and for dynamic management of the groundwater exploitation.
The research on optimal allocation of water resources of Jinan eastern district and groundwater level fitting and prediction are helpful to achieve the excellent use of excellent water, near use of near water and dynamic control of groundwater level so that limited water resources could bring about maximum socio-economic and environmental benefits,which has important practical significance to sustainable use of water resources and sustainable spring spewing and socio-economic development.
本文在对已有国内外水资源配置的理论、方法进行分析研究的基础上,通过对城区社会经济进行分析,结合济南“泉城”的特色和要求,确定了城区水资源优化配置的目标和基本原则。在对济南城区和东部城区的需水量进行预测和对城区可供水量进行分析统计的基础上,进行了多次水资源供需平衡分析并建立了适用于济南的水资源优化配置模型。模型以区域缺水程度、区域供水净效益和工业用水和环境用水之间的公平性系数作为目标函数,以各水源地供给各用户的水量为决策变量。采用目标达到法求解的指导思想,结合东部城区水资源配置的基本思路,根据济南中心城区可能的不同供水情况对东部城区2010年、2015年和2020年三个水平年不同降水频率提出了多个水资源配置方案。结果表明在中心城区实施泉水先观后用的情况下,东部城区水资源配置结果更有利于社会经济可持续发展。此外,为更好地实现保持泉群可持续喷涌的目标,本文还运用多元回归模型对地下水水位变化(以月为单位)进行了模拟,模型整体拟合结果较好,建议采用分段拟合模型进行地下水水位预测,从而对地下水的开采实行动态管理。
对济南东部城区的水资源优化配置和地下水水位模拟预测研究,有助于实现优水优用、近水近用和地下水位动态控制的目标,使有限的水资源发挥最大的社会经济和环境效益,对实现济南水资源可持续利用,保证泉群持续喷涌和社会经济可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。
Jinan is the the political, economic and cultural center of Shandong Province with a big population, per capita water resources of which accounts for only one-tenth of the national per capita water resources. Urban population is more dense. Jinan is famous for its springs. However, due to groundwater over-exploitation, the spring has begun drying up since the 1975, which occur almost every year. In additional irrational water structure, inefficient water use, inadequate water resource management mechanisms make the gap between supply and demand of water resources gradually increased. The bottleneck of water resources have become increasingly evident. Therefore it is necessary to do unified manage and scientific allocation of urban water resources to realize effective and equitable distribution between different regions and water users so that sustainable utilization of water resources and socio-economic development can be achieved.
Based on the analysis on theory and methods of domestic and international water resources allocation, this article has determined the objectives, tasks, basic principles of urban optimal water resources allocation combining characteristics and requirements of Spring-Jinan through the urban zoning and the regional socio-economic situation analysis. The optimal allocation model of water resources applicable for Jinan City has been set up based on a number of regional water resources supply and demand balance calculation.The model take the extent of the lack of water, the net benefits of regional water supply and the fairness coefficient between industrial water and environmental water as the objective function and the water supply for each user as decision-making variables. The guiding ideology of Objectives achieve method is adopted combining the basic ideas of the eastern urban water resources allocation. A number of water resources allocation programs for eastern district are raised on different precipitation frequency of 2010,2015 and 2020 three level years,according to different possible water supply situation of downtown. Results show that it is better for sustainable socio-economic in the case that the spring water is reused in downtown. Moreover, in order to better achieve the objectives of spring sustainable spewing, this article also used multiple regression model to simulate urban groundwater level change (in units of months). The model fitting results overall is good. Sub-fitting model is recommended to predict groundwater level and for dynamic management of the groundwater exploitation.
The research on optimal allocation of water resources of Jinan eastern district and groundwater level fitting and prediction are helpful to achieve the excellent use of excellent water, near use of near water and dynamic control of groundwater level so that limited water resources could bring about maximum socio-economic and environmental benefits,which has important practical significance to sustainable use of water resources and sustainable spring spewing and socio-economic development.
引文
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[8]王好芳,董增川.基于量与质的多目标水资源配置模型[J].人民黄河,2004,26(6).
[9]谢新民,岳春芳,阮本清.基于原水—净化水耦合配置的多目标递解控制模型[J].水利水电科技进展,2005,25(3).
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[12]张长江,徐征和,负汝安.应用大系统递阶模型优化配置区域农业水资源[J].水利学报,2005,36(12).
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[14]姚鹤岭.GIS在水资源综合开发中的应用[J].人民黄河,2000,22(3).
[15]张展羽,高玉芳,李龙昌.沿海缺水灌区水资源优化调配耦合模型[J].水利学报,2006,37(10).
[16]郭变青,王宝山,高迪,等.基于GIS的水资源优化管理信息系统[J].全球定位系统,2006(3).
[17]高春平,何雄,张荣建.水资源优化配置调度系统信息传输通道建设[J].东北水利水电,2006(3).
[18]熊范伦,邓超.退火遗传算法及其应用[J].生物数学学报,2000,15(2).
[19]方红远,邓玉梅,董增川.多目标水资源系统运行决策优化的遗传算法[J].水利学报,2001,32(9).
[20]周丽,黄哲浩,杜惠萍.多目标非线性水资源优化配置模型的混合遗传算法[J].水电能源科学,2005,23(5).
[21]陈南祥,李跃鹏,徐晨光.基于多目标遗传算法的水资源优化配置[J].水利学报,2006,37(3).
[22]农卫红.多目标模糊优选理论在水资源系统中的应用[J].广西水利水电,2001(3).
[23]孙才智,林学钰.长春市水资源系统优化调度的模糊决策研究[J].东北水利水电,2002(4).
[24]朱长军,杨卫华,李树文.区域水资源可持续量化分析研究—以邯郸地区为例[J].地质与资源,2005,14(1).
[25]马建琴,张振伟,陈守煜.农业水资源系统随机多维模糊优选模型及应用[J].水电能源科学,2006,24(3).
[26]蒋绍阶,孙伟.我国城市水资源管理及其发展趋势.山西建筑,2007,33(31)：17-18.
[27]陶涛,刘遂庆,李树平.城市水资源管理模型的研究进展.水资源与水工程学报,2005,16(1)：60-62.
[28]Mulvilhill W E, Dracup J A. Optimal timing and sizing of a conjunctive urban water supply and waste water system with nonlinear programming [J]. Water Resources Res,1974, 10(2):170-175.
[29]Dandy D G C, et al. A model for constrained optimum water pricing and capacity expansion [J].Water Resources Res,1984,20 (5):511-520.
[30]Haimes Y Y, N ainis W S. Coordination of regional water resources supply and demand planning models [J]. Water Resources Res,1974,10 (6):1051-1059.
[31]都金康,杨戍.城市水资源系统分解协调模型及其应用[J].水利学报,1990,21(3)：33-40.
[32]于书霞,尚金城.城市水资源供需系统优化分析[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(3)：219-223.
[33]王浩,游进军.水资源合理配置研究历程与进展.水利学报,2008,38(10)：1168-1174.
[34]吴文君.承德市需水量预测分析与研究.华北水利水电学院硕士学位论文.2006：21-22.
[35]张雅君,全胜.需水量预测方法的评析与择优.中国给水排水.2001,17(7)：27-29.
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