城市轨道交通廓道效应分析模型与方法研究
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摘要
轨道交通作为城市公共交通系统的一个重要组成部分,在缓解城市交通压力、引导土地利用合理布局等方面起着重要作用。但是,目前城市轨道交通的规划建设与土地利用存在着严重的脱节现象,造成轨道交通不能充分发挥其应有的效能。因此,如何实现轨道交通与沿线土地利用协调发展成为亟待解决的问题,而轨道交通廊道效应作为评价轨道交通对土地利用影响程度的主要指标,建立定量分析模型对其进行正确的度量与评价具有重要的理论价值与实际意义。
本论文运用系统动力学模型模拟了城市交通与土地利用的互馈作用,研究了人口、路网以及土地利用三者之间的定量关系,剖析了轨道交通对城市土地利用作用的特性;基于廊道效应理论,结合长春市轻轨3号线的实际情况确定了廊道范围计算模型,并给出了部分站点影响范围的理论值;以房地产增值作为度量轨道交通廊道效应的一个主要指标,分析了结构因素、区位因素、邻里因素、经济因素以及消费者特征因素等对房地产价值的影响,在总结对比房地产价值与交通成本关系的三种理论模型的基础上,选择特征价格法中的半对数模型作为房地产增值的计算模型,对长春市轻轨3号线廊道范围内房地产价值的影响进行了实证研究;最后,基于非集计理论对廊道范围内轨道交通与常规公交的竞争与合作进行了探讨,运用博弈理论确定了轨道交通与常规公交协调发展的最优策略,并结合轻轨3号线存在的问题,提出了轨道交通协调发展的相关意见和建议。
论文研究结论对正确评价轨道交通的廊道效应,促进轨道交通与土地利用协调发展及轨道交通利益的合理返还等有着重要的理论价值与实际意义。
In recent years, with the increase of the number of private cars, the traffic jams of city is becoming increasingly severe, many of the domestic big cities have to ease the traffic, for this people of domestic has appealed to rapid rail transit. As the construction of rail transit investment in high-cost, and the large-scale fixed assets, the impact that land is non-renewable resources, so the coordinated development of rail transit and how the along land use has become serious problem.
China's urban rail transit construction is still in its infancy, urban planning and construction system has not yet developed as a whole strategy, land exploitation and construction of rail transit are often alone, resulting both out of touch in the planning, construction, management. Urban Mass Transit as an important factor in the development of land exploitation, some new scientific theory and research findings are not fully-used at all stages of rail transportation and land-use planning ,and some of the contemporary advanced simulation model has not yet been fully understood and applied either. In this way, on the one hand, making urban rail transit difficult to serve urban planning, on the other hand, has made the value-added revenue of the development of along areas is difficult to effectively return to the track traffic, thus affecting the profitability of the rail transportation and its self-sustained, rolling development ability.
Based on the above reality, this paper discusses the mutual relation, content and the mechanism of action of China's urban rail transit and land-use, scientific analysis and evaluation of the rail corridor effect. Combine to the actual of Changchun Light Rail Line 3 to determine the method to calculate the scope of the impact of rail transit corridor and the orbit around the traffic on the value of real estate, and put forward the coordinated development strategy of the inside transit corridor rail with the conventional public transport, lastly, combined with the light 3 Line problems to put forward the comments and suggestions of coordinated development of rail transportation-related. The purpose is to promote mass transit construction and the sound development of urban land use planning, the interactive development of rail transportation and real estate, and to achieve the harmonious co-existence of conventional public transport.
To sum up, the main research of the thesis covers following areas:
1. The study of the correlation between rail transit and land-use
Urban land use and urban transport system has a relationship of cycle action and the role of feedback. Use system dynamics to build the relationship model between urban transport system and land use, verified the model validity. The model is divided into Population model, Network evaluation model, Land-use model, application of the Shanghai Municipal land-use and traffic data to simulate the function fitting and the forecast of each of the sub-model, and validated the causality of urban land use and transport system. At the same time, the paper analyzed the characteristics effect of track traffic on land-use.
2. Determine the scope of rail corridor
Introduced a corridor effect theory and the method to determine the urban rail traffic affected zone (corridor). On the base of City residents travel survey data of Changchun in 2003, combined with the theory of on-accrual model and methods to launch the utility function of people choices of rail transit and conventional public transport in the trip, and on this basis, establish the computing model of affected areas that fit to the real situation of Changchun City Light Rail Line 3, and partly give incidence theoretical value of some site.
3. Development of rail transportation on the impact on the value of real estate value.
The value of real estate is affected by structural factors, location factors, neighborhood factors , as well as economic factors and consumer features , the development of rail transportation has a potential multiplier effect on the real estate value. On the base to sum up the three types of theoretical models of the value of real estate and transportation costs to choice semilog model of the Hedonic Price Method as the value-added model of the impact of the 3rd light rail transit line on real estate value. In conjunction with the actual value of real estate around the track, the paper did the research on the impact of light rail 3 on the value of real estate with the development of the Changchun Light Rail 3.
4. Competition and coordination between Rail Transit and conventional bus.
There are competitions and cooperation between two of the most common mode of travel, conventional bus and rail transit. Use residents travel survey data in 2006 in Beijing, analysis the way people in the framework of the corridor use mass transit (subway), and the characteristics of conventional bus trip. Use the Non-accrual model to establish the model of travel time, fares and ways to choose, and gives the rationalization advice of rail transit. In addition, we discussed the best win-win strategy of the two ways within the framework of transport corridor used of game theory.
5. The advice and suggestions of coordinate development of rail transportation
By analyzing affect of the status quo of land-use on light rail line traffic on the 3rd, and the operation status quo of Light Rail Line 3, pointing out the problem between the Abstract construction of Changchun city rail and the along land-use as well as come up the suggestions of coordinated development of Rail Transit, conventional bus and the use of land.
This article summed up the results of research, and has innovation as follows:
1. Use of system dynamics model to simulate the rail transit and land-use feedback relation, the paper study the ration relation between population ,network and the land-use, this model can be used for the population as well as the development of urban traffic forecasts, give reference for Urban transport planning and building.
2. On the basis of corridor effect theoretical analysis, combined with non-accrual model of the theory and methodology to come up the effective methods to determine the scope of the rail corridor, and practically applied in research.
3. Summed up the relationship between the value of real estate and transportation costs, the paper used semilog model of Hedonic Price Method to Calculate the impact of Changchun Light Rail Line 3 on the real estate value-added, it has great practical significance to establish and implement the rail transit and the along property Joint development .
4. Use of non-accrual model to analysis of the rail transportation way and its competitiveness factors with conventional public transport, based on game theory, the paper determined optimal co-existence strategy of the two ways.
本论文运用系统动力学模型模拟了城市交通与土地利用的互馈作用,研究了人口、路网以及土地利用三者之间的定量关系,剖析了轨道交通对城市土地利用作用的特性;基于廊道效应理论,结合长春市轻轨3号线的实际情况确定了廊道范围计算模型,并给出了部分站点影响范围的理论值;以房地产增值作为度量轨道交通廊道效应的一个主要指标,分析了结构因素、区位因素、邻里因素、经济因素以及消费者特征因素等对房地产价值的影响,在总结对比房地产价值与交通成本关系的三种理论模型的基础上,选择特征价格法中的半对数模型作为房地产增值的计算模型,对长春市轻轨3号线廊道范围内房地产价值的影响进行了实证研究;最后,基于非集计理论对廊道范围内轨道交通与常规公交的竞争与合作进行了探讨,运用博弈理论确定了轨道交通与常规公交协调发展的最优策略,并结合轻轨3号线存在的问题,提出了轨道交通协调发展的相关意见和建议。
论文研究结论对正确评价轨道交通的廊道效应,促进轨道交通与土地利用协调发展及轨道交通利益的合理返还等有着重要的理论价值与实际意义。
In recent years, with the increase of the number of private cars, the traffic jams of city is becoming increasingly severe, many of the domestic big cities have to ease the traffic, for this people of domestic has appealed to rapid rail transit. As the construction of rail transit investment in high-cost, and the large-scale fixed assets, the impact that land is non-renewable resources, so the coordinated development of rail transit and how the along land use has become serious problem.
China's urban rail transit construction is still in its infancy, urban planning and construction system has not yet developed as a whole strategy, land exploitation and construction of rail transit are often alone, resulting both out of touch in the planning, construction, management. Urban Mass Transit as an important factor in the development of land exploitation, some new scientific theory and research findings are not fully-used at all stages of rail transportation and land-use planning ,and some of the contemporary advanced simulation model has not yet been fully understood and applied either. In this way, on the one hand, making urban rail transit difficult to serve urban planning, on the other hand, has made the value-added revenue of the development of along areas is difficult to effectively return to the track traffic, thus affecting the profitability of the rail transportation and its self-sustained, rolling development ability.
Based on the above reality, this paper discusses the mutual relation, content and the mechanism of action of China's urban rail transit and land-use, scientific analysis and evaluation of the rail corridor effect. Combine to the actual of Changchun Light Rail Line 3 to determine the method to calculate the scope of the impact of rail transit corridor and the orbit around the traffic on the value of real estate, and put forward the coordinated development strategy of the inside transit corridor rail with the conventional public transport, lastly, combined with the light 3 Line problems to put forward the comments and suggestions of coordinated development of rail transportation-related. The purpose is to promote mass transit construction and the sound development of urban land use planning, the interactive development of rail transportation and real estate, and to achieve the harmonious co-existence of conventional public transport.
To sum up, the main research of the thesis covers following areas:
1. The study of the correlation between rail transit and land-use
Urban land use and urban transport system has a relationship of cycle action and the role of feedback. Use system dynamics to build the relationship model between urban transport system and land use, verified the model validity. The model is divided into Population model, Network evaluation model, Land-use model, application of the Shanghai Municipal land-use and traffic data to simulate the function fitting and the forecast of each of the sub-model, and validated the causality of urban land use and transport system. At the same time, the paper analyzed the characteristics effect of track traffic on land-use.
2. Determine the scope of rail corridor
Introduced a corridor effect theory and the method to determine the urban rail traffic affected zone (corridor). On the base of City residents travel survey data of Changchun in 2003, combined with the theory of on-accrual model and methods to launch the utility function of people choices of rail transit and conventional public transport in the trip, and on this basis, establish the computing model of affected areas that fit to the real situation of Changchun City Light Rail Line 3, and partly give incidence theoretical value of some site.
3. Development of rail transportation on the impact on the value of real estate value.
The value of real estate is affected by structural factors, location factors, neighborhood factors , as well as economic factors and consumer features , the development of rail transportation has a potential multiplier effect on the real estate value. On the base to sum up the three types of theoretical models of the value of real estate and transportation costs to choice semilog model of the Hedonic Price Method as the value-added model of the impact of the 3rd light rail transit line on real estate value. In conjunction with the actual value of real estate around the track, the paper did the research on the impact of light rail 3 on the value of real estate with the development of the Changchun Light Rail 3.
4. Competition and coordination between Rail Transit and conventional bus.
There are competitions and cooperation between two of the most common mode of travel, conventional bus and rail transit. Use residents travel survey data in 2006 in Beijing, analysis the way people in the framework of the corridor use mass transit (subway), and the characteristics of conventional bus trip. Use the Non-accrual model to establish the model of travel time, fares and ways to choose, and gives the rationalization advice of rail transit. In addition, we discussed the best win-win strategy of the two ways within the framework of transport corridor used of game theory.
5. The advice and suggestions of coordinate development of rail transportation
By analyzing affect of the status quo of land-use on light rail line traffic on the 3rd, and the operation status quo of Light Rail Line 3, pointing out the problem between the Abstract construction of Changchun city rail and the along land-use as well as come up the suggestions of coordinated development of Rail Transit, conventional bus and the use of land.
This article summed up the results of research, and has innovation as follows:
1. Use of system dynamics model to simulate the rail transit and land-use feedback relation, the paper study the ration relation between population ,network and the land-use, this model can be used for the population as well as the development of urban traffic forecasts, give reference for Urban transport planning and building.
2. On the basis of corridor effect theoretical analysis, combined with non-accrual model of the theory and methodology to come up the effective methods to determine the scope of the rail corridor, and practically applied in research.
3. Summed up the relationship between the value of real estate and transportation costs, the paper used semilog model of Hedonic Price Method to Calculate the impact of Changchun Light Rail Line 3 on the real estate value-added, it has great practical significance to establish and implement the rail transit and the along property Joint development .
4. Use of non-accrual model to analysis of the rail transportation way and its competitiveness factors with conventional public transport, based on game theory, the paper determined optimal co-existence strategy of the two ways.
引文
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