外汇占款对我国货币政策有效性的影响研究
|
摘要
近年来，随着我国外汇储备的迅速增加，外汇占款过多已经成为我国宏观金融的一个重要问题，并且严重干扰了央行货币政策的有效实施。本文从我国外汇占款形成的历史原因和货币政策调控机制改革的背景出发，就外汇占款和我国的货币供给，货币政策传导渠道和操作过程之间的关系做了深入研究，并在开放经济条件下分析了我国货币需求函数的稳定性。本文目的在于通过构建一个外汇占款方式下我国货币政策有效性的分析框架，解释在日益增加的外汇占款情形下我国货币政策有效性为何不断下降的原因，并从货币发行的角度提出相应的政策建议。本文的主要工作包括以下几个方面：
首先，论文分析了外汇占款对货币政策中介目标--货币供给的影响。自2002年以来，国际收支双顺差使得我国外汇资产迅速累积，外汇占款成为了我国基础货币投放的主要来源，也构成了广义货币投放的重要组成部分。由于广义货币M2和实体经济的联系最为紧密，所以论文从银行体系资产负债表和央行资产负债表出发，通过分析央票对基础货币的回笼和存款准备金对货币乘数的控制等货币冲销手段，经验研究了2002~2010年间外汇占款对我国广义货币M2的动态影响。随后使用MS-VAR、广义脉冲响应、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验等计量分析方法，实证研究了2007年金融危机前后M2的增长来源及其与M2变动的动态关系。实证结果表明，金融危机前，央行对基础货币和广义货币积极有效的对冲，直接限制了信贷规模的增长，使得外汇占款成为了M2增长的直接驱动因素；而金融危机后，央行宽松的货币政策实施和大规模的银行信贷投放使得国内信贷推动了M2的急速增长，但从根本上看，外汇占款为国内信贷投放提供了有效支撑，所以实际上外汇占款通过支持国内信贷扩张间接促进了M2的增长。这说明，外汇占款是目前我国货币供给增长过快的根本原因，并且使得央行对货币政策中介目标不能有效控制，最终影响了货币政策有效性。
其次，论文分析了外汇占款对我国货币政策传导渠道的影响。自1990年以来，我国货币政策由直接调控向间接调控转变，中介目标也由信贷规模转向货币供应量，同时央行也积极推进利率市场化进程，努力构建现代货币政策调控体系。在上述背景下，论文对货币政策的传统传导渠道——利率渠道、信贷渠道和货币渠道进行了机理分析，并使用可变参数向量自回归模型（TVP-VAR模型）对我国1990~2010年这三个渠道的货币政策传导效应进行了动态分析，脉冲响应结果表明我国货币政策的传导主要是通过货币渠道和信贷渠道来进行，利率渠道还不健全。随后，在开放经济条件下，论文论述了外汇占款的增加使得我国商业银行的存差扩大，从而减弱了央行对货币供应量和贷款规模的控制能力。接下来，论文从外汇资产导致的央行货币错配角度出发，深入分析了货币错配对货币政策传导渠道的影响。由于我国的强制结售汇制和人民币升值预期，外汇资产大部分都被央行收购，这导致货币错配风险几乎全部集中在央行身上，央行必须独自承担汇率波动带来的外汇资产贬值风险，同时货币错配使得央行对货币供应量和信贷规模的控制力减弱，并且使得货币政策在资产价格渠道（货币渠道之一）和信贷渠道的传导效率下降，传导信号失真。总之，外汇占款对货币渠道和信贷渠道的影响，降低了中央银行通过这两个渠道传递货币政策的能力，最终影响了货币政策有效性。
第三，论文分析了外汇占款与我国货币政策的动态关系，即货币政策对外汇占款的冲销效应和国际资本流动通过外汇占款形式对货币政策的抵消效果。一方面，中央银行通过发行央票等方式冲销外汇占款导致的基础货币被动增长；另一方面，在资本管制逐渐放开的背景下，短期逐利的国际资本的跨境流动会部分抵消我国货币政策操作的效果。所以，论文对修正的BGT模型进行了拓展，将我国的宏观经济量化目标引入央行的目标损失函数，构造适合我国的抵消和冲销系数模型，使用联立方程模型估计了1999~2010年的外汇占款和货币政策之间的定量关系，并采用递归系数方法估计了其动态变化过程。实证结果表明，货币政策对外汇占款的冲销力度很大，但并不完全，同时资本流动对货币政策起着一定程度的抵消作用。外汇冲销的不完全性和资本流动对货币政策操作的部分抵消效应直接影响了我国货币政策操作的效果，最终影响了货币政策有效性。
第四，论文在开放经济条件下研究了我国的货币需求函数。在我国，以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策的有效实施，前提条件是货币需求函数是稳定和可预测的。而外汇占款问题实际上就是我国外向型经济战略的表现之一，所以随着我国对外依赖程度的提高，对货币需求函数的研究必须考虑国际因素。论文将国际利率和汇率因素引入到我国货币需求函数中，分别使用误差修正模型和可变参数模型实证估计了我国的货币需求函数。稳定性检验表明，以固定系数的误差修正模型来表示我国的货币需求函数存在模型设定误差。Kalman滤波估计表明，我国的货币需求函数并不稳定，随时间动态变化。所以，在货币需求不稳定、难以预测的基础上，以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策有效性将会降低。
以上分析表明，随着外汇占款的持续增加，我国货币政策有效实施的难度日益加大，央行面临着如何解决货币政策失效的难题。论文最后从三元悖论出发，对我国的货币发行方式改革提出了政策建议。首先在对美国、英国、香港和中国货币发行方式介绍的基础上，从“三元悖论”的视角为各国货币发行方式的选择提供了理论依据。随后通过对比，分析了人民币发行方式的主要局限性。最后仍然根据“三元悖论”，提出未来通过买国债发行人民币的改革建议。
In recent years, with the rapid increase of China's foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchangesare increasingly becoming an important issue, and seriously influneces the effective implementationof monetary policy. In this paper, starting on the historical reasons for the formation of China's foreignexchange and the background of reform of monetary policy mechanism, we study the relationship offoreign exchange and the money supply, monetary policy transmission channels and the monetaryoperation, and analyze the stability of China's money demand function in an open economy. Thepurpose of this paper is to construct an analysis framework of the effectiveness of monetary policy, toexplain the reasons why effectiveness of monetary policy is falling under the increasing foreignexchange, and to make policy recommendations. The major work includes the following aspects:
First, the paper analyzes the impact of foreign exchange for the money supply. Since2002, thedual surplus on balance of international payments makes rapid accumulation of foreign exchange inour country. Foreign exchange has become our main source of reserve money, and also constitutes animportant part of broad money. As the broad money M2and the real economy most closely linked,the papers, from the banking system balance sheet and the central bank's balance sheet, through ananalysis the monetary write-off measures of central bank bills and deposit reserve ratio, studies offoreign exchange for the dynamic effects of M2from2002to2010. Then use the MS-VAR,generalized impulse response, variance decomposition and Granger causality test and other methodsof quantitative analysis, empirical studies the sources of growth of M2and the dynamic relationshipof its and M2changes before and after the2007financial crisis. The results show that, before thefinancial crisis, the effective hedge of central bank on reserve money and broad money, directlylimiting the scale of credit growth, making the foreign exchange become the direct drivers of growthin M2; After the financial crisis, the loose monetary policy and large-scale bank credit allows therapid growth of M2, but the fundamental point of view, foreign exchange provide effective support,for domestic credit, so in fact, foreign exchange indirect promote for the growth of M2throughsupporting expansion of domestic credit. This shows that China's foreign exchange is the essencereasons of the macro excess liquidity.
Secondly, the paper analyzes China's foreign exchange impact of monetary policy transmissionchannels. Since1990, China's monetary policy has been changed from direct to indirect control changes, the intermediate goals has been shifted from the credit to money supply, while the centralbank also actively promote the interest rate market to build a modern system of monetary policy. Inthe above context, the paper analyzes the traditional transmission channels of monetary policy-interest rate channel, credit channel and monetary channel, and use the variable parameter vectorautoregressive model (TVP-VAR model) to dynamic analyze three channels from1990to2010. Theimpulse response shows that China's monetary policy transmission mainly through monetary andcredit channels, the interest rate channel is not perfect. Subsequently, in the open economy framework,the paper discusses the increase in foreign exchange making the gap between deposits and loans ofcommercial banks in China, thereby weakening the central bank's ability to control the size of moneysupply and credits. Next, the paper analyzes in depth the currency mismatch influences monetarypolicy transmission channels. As China's mandatory exchange settlement system and the expectedappreciation of the Renminbi, most foreign exchange assets have been acquired by central banks,which led to currency mismatch risk be almost concentrated in the central bank, the central bankalone must bear the exchange rate fluctuations of foreign exchange risk of devaluation of assets, whilecurrency mismatch reduces the efficiency of monetary policy transmission in the asset price channeland the credit channel, distorts transmission signal.
Third, the paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between foreign exchange and monetarypolicy, namely the sterilization effects of monetary policy on foreign exchange and the offset effectsof international capital flows on monetary policy. On the one hand, the central bank sterilizes theforeign exchange through the issuance of central bank bill; on the other hand, in the context of gradualliberalization of capital controls, international capital flow partially offset the effect of monetarypolicy operations. The papers, by adding the country's macro-economic quantitative targets into thecentral bank's loss function, expands the modified BGT model, and constructs an offset andsterilization model for China, and the use of simultaneous equations to estimate the quantitativerelationship between the international capital flows and monetary policy from1999to2010, and theuse of recursion coefficients method to estimate its dynamic process. The empirical results show thatinternational capital flows and monetary policy in China presence a conflict, but benefiting from thestrict supervision on “hot money”, the degree of conflict is not serious. Monetary policy offsets veryhard on capital flows, but not completely, while capital flows plays a certain degree of sterilization onmonetary policy.
Fourth, the paper studies China's money demand function in an open economy. In China, as money supply is the intermediate target of monetary policy, Central bank may effectively implementsmonetary policy provided that the money demand function is stable and predictable. The foreignexchange problem is actually the performance of China's strategy of export-oriented economy, so asthe improvement of China's foreign dependence; the study of money demand function must take intoaccount international factors. The Paper introduces international interest rates and exchange ratefactors into China's money demand function, respectively using error-correction model and thevariable parameter model to estimate money demand function. Stability tests show that the fixedcoefficient of error correction model has the model specification error. Kalman filter estimates suggestthat China's money demand function is not stable, dynamic changes over time. Therefore, the demandfor money is unstable, difficult to predict, so monetary policy effectiveness will be reduced.
The above analysis shows that with the continued increase in foreign exchange, the effectiveimplementation of monetary policy is increasingly difficult, the central bank faced with how to solvethe problem of monetary policy failures. Finally, starting from the"impossible trinity", the paper givesthe policy recommendations of RMB issue. Based on the analysis of money supply of the U.S., UK,Hong Kong and China, we provide a theoretical basis for the choice of the currency issues throughthe"impossible trinity". Subsequently, by contrast, we analysis the major limitations of RMB issue.At last, we propose the reform proposals of buying government bonds to issue RMB through"impossible trinity".
首先，论文分析了外汇占款对货币政策中介目标--货币供给的影响。自2002年以来，国际收支双顺差使得我国外汇资产迅速累积，外汇占款成为了我国基础货币投放的主要来源，也构成了广义货币投放的重要组成部分。由于广义货币M2和实体经济的联系最为紧密，所以论文从银行体系资产负债表和央行资产负债表出发，通过分析央票对基础货币的回笼和存款准备金对货币乘数的控制等货币冲销手段，经验研究了2002~2010年间外汇占款对我国广义货币M2的动态影响。随后使用MS-VAR、广义脉冲响应、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验等计量分析方法，实证研究了2007年金融危机前后M2的增长来源及其与M2变动的动态关系。实证结果表明，金融危机前，央行对基础货币和广义货币积极有效的对冲，直接限制了信贷规模的增长，使得外汇占款成为了M2增长的直接驱动因素；而金融危机后，央行宽松的货币政策实施和大规模的银行信贷投放使得国内信贷推动了M2的急速增长，但从根本上看，外汇占款为国内信贷投放提供了有效支撑，所以实际上外汇占款通过支持国内信贷扩张间接促进了M2的增长。这说明，外汇占款是目前我国货币供给增长过快的根本原因，并且使得央行对货币政策中介目标不能有效控制，最终影响了货币政策有效性。
其次，论文分析了外汇占款对我国货币政策传导渠道的影响。自1990年以来，我国货币政策由直接调控向间接调控转变，中介目标也由信贷规模转向货币供应量，同时央行也积极推进利率市场化进程，努力构建现代货币政策调控体系。在上述背景下，论文对货币政策的传统传导渠道——利率渠道、信贷渠道和货币渠道进行了机理分析，并使用可变参数向量自回归模型（TVP-VAR模型）对我国1990~2010年这三个渠道的货币政策传导效应进行了动态分析，脉冲响应结果表明我国货币政策的传导主要是通过货币渠道和信贷渠道来进行，利率渠道还不健全。随后，在开放经济条件下，论文论述了外汇占款的增加使得我国商业银行的存差扩大，从而减弱了央行对货币供应量和贷款规模的控制能力。接下来，论文从外汇资产导致的央行货币错配角度出发，深入分析了货币错配对货币政策传导渠道的影响。由于我国的强制结售汇制和人民币升值预期，外汇资产大部分都被央行收购，这导致货币错配风险几乎全部集中在央行身上，央行必须独自承担汇率波动带来的外汇资产贬值风险，同时货币错配使得央行对货币供应量和信贷规模的控制力减弱，并且使得货币政策在资产价格渠道（货币渠道之一）和信贷渠道的传导效率下降，传导信号失真。总之，外汇占款对货币渠道和信贷渠道的影响，降低了中央银行通过这两个渠道传递货币政策的能力，最终影响了货币政策有效性。
第三，论文分析了外汇占款与我国货币政策的动态关系，即货币政策对外汇占款的冲销效应和国际资本流动通过外汇占款形式对货币政策的抵消效果。一方面，中央银行通过发行央票等方式冲销外汇占款导致的基础货币被动增长；另一方面，在资本管制逐渐放开的背景下，短期逐利的国际资本的跨境流动会部分抵消我国货币政策操作的效果。所以，论文对修正的BGT模型进行了拓展，将我国的宏观经济量化目标引入央行的目标损失函数，构造适合我国的抵消和冲销系数模型，使用联立方程模型估计了1999~2010年的外汇占款和货币政策之间的定量关系，并采用递归系数方法估计了其动态变化过程。实证结果表明，货币政策对外汇占款的冲销力度很大，但并不完全，同时资本流动对货币政策起着一定程度的抵消作用。外汇冲销的不完全性和资本流动对货币政策操作的部分抵消效应直接影响了我国货币政策操作的效果，最终影响了货币政策有效性。
第四，论文在开放经济条件下研究了我国的货币需求函数。在我国，以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策的有效实施，前提条件是货币需求函数是稳定和可预测的。而外汇占款问题实际上就是我国外向型经济战略的表现之一，所以随着我国对外依赖程度的提高，对货币需求函数的研究必须考虑国际因素。论文将国际利率和汇率因素引入到我国货币需求函数中，分别使用误差修正模型和可变参数模型实证估计了我国的货币需求函数。稳定性检验表明，以固定系数的误差修正模型来表示我国的货币需求函数存在模型设定误差。Kalman滤波估计表明，我国的货币需求函数并不稳定，随时间动态变化。所以，在货币需求不稳定、难以预测的基础上，以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策有效性将会降低。
以上分析表明，随着外汇占款的持续增加，我国货币政策有效实施的难度日益加大，央行面临着如何解决货币政策失效的难题。论文最后从三元悖论出发，对我国的货币发行方式改革提出了政策建议。首先在对美国、英国、香港和中国货币发行方式介绍的基础上，从“三元悖论”的视角为各国货币发行方式的选择提供了理论依据。随后通过对比，分析了人民币发行方式的主要局限性。最后仍然根据“三元悖论”，提出未来通过买国债发行人民币的改革建议。
In recent years, with the rapid increase of China's foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchangesare increasingly becoming an important issue, and seriously influneces the effective implementationof monetary policy. In this paper, starting on the historical reasons for the formation of China's foreignexchange and the background of reform of monetary policy mechanism, we study the relationship offoreign exchange and the money supply, monetary policy transmission channels and the monetaryoperation, and analyze the stability of China's money demand function in an open economy. Thepurpose of this paper is to construct an analysis framework of the effectiveness of monetary policy, toexplain the reasons why effectiveness of monetary policy is falling under the increasing foreignexchange, and to make policy recommendations. The major work includes the following aspects:
First, the paper analyzes the impact of foreign exchange for the money supply. Since2002, thedual surplus on balance of international payments makes rapid accumulation of foreign exchange inour country. Foreign exchange has become our main source of reserve money, and also constitutes animportant part of broad money. As the broad money M2and the real economy most closely linked,the papers, from the banking system balance sheet and the central bank's balance sheet, through ananalysis the monetary write-off measures of central bank bills and deposit reserve ratio, studies offoreign exchange for the dynamic effects of M2from2002to2010. Then use the MS-VAR,generalized impulse response, variance decomposition and Granger causality test and other methodsof quantitative analysis, empirical studies the sources of growth of M2and the dynamic relationshipof its and M2changes before and after the2007financial crisis. The results show that, before thefinancial crisis, the effective hedge of central bank on reserve money and broad money, directlylimiting the scale of credit growth, making the foreign exchange become the direct drivers of growthin M2; After the financial crisis, the loose monetary policy and large-scale bank credit allows therapid growth of M2, but the fundamental point of view, foreign exchange provide effective support,for domestic credit, so in fact, foreign exchange indirect promote for the growth of M2throughsupporting expansion of domestic credit. This shows that China's foreign exchange is the essencereasons of the macro excess liquidity.
Secondly, the paper analyzes China's foreign exchange impact of monetary policy transmissionchannels. Since1990, China's monetary policy has been changed from direct to indirect control changes, the intermediate goals has been shifted from the credit to money supply, while the centralbank also actively promote the interest rate market to build a modern system of monetary policy. Inthe above context, the paper analyzes the traditional transmission channels of monetary policy-interest rate channel, credit channel and monetary channel, and use the variable parameter vectorautoregressive model (TVP-VAR model) to dynamic analyze three channels from1990to2010. Theimpulse response shows that China's monetary policy transmission mainly through monetary andcredit channels, the interest rate channel is not perfect. Subsequently, in the open economy framework,the paper discusses the increase in foreign exchange making the gap between deposits and loans ofcommercial banks in China, thereby weakening the central bank's ability to control the size of moneysupply and credits. Next, the paper analyzes in depth the currency mismatch influences monetarypolicy transmission channels. As China's mandatory exchange settlement system and the expectedappreciation of the Renminbi, most foreign exchange assets have been acquired by central banks,which led to currency mismatch risk be almost concentrated in the central bank, the central bankalone must bear the exchange rate fluctuations of foreign exchange risk of devaluation of assets, whilecurrency mismatch reduces the efficiency of monetary policy transmission in the asset price channeland the credit channel, distorts transmission signal.
Third, the paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between foreign exchange and monetarypolicy, namely the sterilization effects of monetary policy on foreign exchange and the offset effectsof international capital flows on monetary policy. On the one hand, the central bank sterilizes theforeign exchange through the issuance of central bank bill; on the other hand, in the context of gradualliberalization of capital controls, international capital flow partially offset the effect of monetarypolicy operations. The papers, by adding the country's macro-economic quantitative targets into thecentral bank's loss function, expands the modified BGT model, and constructs an offset andsterilization model for China, and the use of simultaneous equations to estimate the quantitativerelationship between the international capital flows and monetary policy from1999to2010, and theuse of recursion coefficients method to estimate its dynamic process. The empirical results show thatinternational capital flows and monetary policy in China presence a conflict, but benefiting from thestrict supervision on “hot money”, the degree of conflict is not serious. Monetary policy offsets veryhard on capital flows, but not completely, while capital flows plays a certain degree of sterilization onmonetary policy.
Fourth, the paper studies China's money demand function in an open economy. In China, as money supply is the intermediate target of monetary policy, Central bank may effectively implementsmonetary policy provided that the money demand function is stable and predictable. The foreignexchange problem is actually the performance of China's strategy of export-oriented economy, so asthe improvement of China's foreign dependence; the study of money demand function must take intoaccount international factors. The Paper introduces international interest rates and exchange ratefactors into China's money demand function, respectively using error-correction model and thevariable parameter model to estimate money demand function. Stability tests show that the fixedcoefficient of error correction model has the model specification error. Kalman filter estimates suggestthat China's money demand function is not stable, dynamic changes over time. Therefore, the demandfor money is unstable, difficult to predict, so monetary policy effectiveness will be reduced.
The above analysis shows that with the continued increase in foreign exchange, the effectiveimplementation of monetary policy is increasingly difficult, the central bank faced with how to solvethe problem of monetary policy failures. Finally, starting from the"impossible trinity", the paper givesthe policy recommendations of RMB issue. Based on the analysis of money supply of the U.S., UK,Hong Kong and China, we provide a theoretical basis for the choice of the currency issues throughthe"impossible trinity". Subsequently, by contrast, we analysis the major limitations of RMB issue.At last, we propose the reform proposals of buying government bonds to issue RMB through"impossible trinity".
引文
[1]凯恩斯.就业,利息和货币通论[M].杨力译.上海外语教育出版社,2006.
[2] Friedman M. The role of monetary policy[J]. American Economic Review,1968,58(1):1-17.
[3] Phelps ES. Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time[J].Economica.1967,34(135):254-281.
[4] Muth JF. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements[J]. Econometrica: Journal of theEconometric Society.1961,29(3):315-335.
[5] Lucas Jr RE. Expectations and the Neutrality of Money[J]. Journal of economic theory.1972,4(2):103-124.
[6] Wallace N. A Modigliani-Miller theorem for open-market operations[J]. American Economic Review.1981,71(3):267-274.
[7] Stiglitz JE, Weiss A. Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information[J]. American EconomicReview.1981,71(3):393-410.
[8] Dixit AK, Stiglitz JE. Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity[J]. AmericanEconomic Review.1977,67(3):297-308.
[9] Grossman SJ, Stiglitz JE. On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets[J]. AmericanEconomic Review.1980,70(3):393-408.
[10] Shapiro C, Stiglitz JE. Equilibrium unemployment as a worker discipline device[J]. AmericanEconomic Review.1984,74(3):433-444.
[11] Blanchard OJ, Quah D. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances[J]. TheAmerican Economic Review,1989,79(4):655-673.
[12] Blanchard OJ, Kahn CM. The solution of linear difference models under rational expectations[J].Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society.1980,48(5):1305-1311.
[13] Blanchard OJ. Debt, deficits, and finite horizons[J]. The Journal of Political Economy.1985,93(2):223-247.
[14] Blanchard OJ, Kiyotaki N. Monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand[J].American Economic Review.1987,77(4):647-666.
[15] Mankiw NG, Romer D, Weil DN. A contribution to the empirics of economic growth[J]. TheQuarterly Journal of Economics.1992,107(2):407-437.
[16] Mankiw NG, Reis R. Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the NewKeynesian Phillips Curve[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics.2002,117(4):1295-1328.
[17] Campbell JY, Mankiw NG. Consumption, income and interest rates: Reinterpreting the time seriesevidence[M]. MIT Press,1989.
[18] Fisher I, Brown HG. The purchasing power of money[M]. The Macmillan Company,1912.
[19] MarshallA. Money, credit and commerce[M]. Augustus M. Kelley,1923.
[20] PigouAC. The value of money[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics.1917,32(1):38-65.
[21] Wicksell K. Interest and prices[M].Read Books,2007.
[22] Hicks JR. Mr. keynes and the" classics"; a suggested interpretation[J]. Econometrica: Journal of theEconometric Society.1937,5(2):147-159.
[23] Hansen AH. Monetary theory and fiscal policy[M]. NewYork, McGraw-Hill.,1949.
[24] Friedman M. The quantity theory of money: a restatement[J]. Studies in the quantity theory ofmoney.1956,3:21.
[25] Brunner K, Meltzer AH. Predicting velocity: implications for theory and policy[J]. Journal ofFinance.1963,18(2):319-354.
[26] Tobin J. A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory[J]. Journal of Money, Credit andBanking.1969,1(1):15-29.
[27] Bernanke BS, Blinder AS. Money, credit and aggregate demand[J]. American Economic Review.1988,78(2):901-921.
[28] Bernanke BS, Blinder AS. The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission[J].American Economic Review.1992,82(4):901-921.
[29] Bernanke B, Gertler M. Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations[J]. American EconomicReview.1989,79(1):14-31.
[30] Mundell RA. Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates[J].Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science.1963,29(4):475-485.
[31] Fleming JM. Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates [J]. StaffPapers-International Monetary Fund.1962:369-380.
[32] Cassel G. Abnormal deviations in international exchanges[J]. The Economic Journal.1918,28(112):413-415.
[33] Keynes JM. ATract on Monetary Reform[m]. Macmillan,1923.
[34] Obstfeld M, Rogo K. Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux[J]. Journal of Political Economy.1995,103(3):624-660.
[35] Bonser-Neal C, Roley VV, Sellon Jr GH. Monetary policy actions, intervention, and exchange rates:a reexamination of the empirical relationships using federal funds rate target data[J]. Journal ofBusiness.1998,71(2):147-177.
[36] Nadal-De Simone F, Dennis R, Redward P. A monetary conditions index for New Zealand: ReserveBank of New Zealand;1996.
[37] Ball LM. Policy rules for open economies[M]. University of Chicago Press,1999.
[38] Brissimis SN, Magginas NS, Simigiannis GT et al. Issues in the transmission of monetary policy[J].Greece’s Economic Performance and Prospects.2001:407-428.
[39] Kashyap AK, Stein JC. What do a million observations on banks say about the transmission ofmonetary policy?[J]. American Economic Review.2000,90(3):407-428.
[40] Baum CF, Caglayan M, Ozkan N. The second moments matter: The response of bank lendingbehavior to macroeconomic uncertainty[J]. Journal of Business.2004,71(2),147-177..
[41] Lettau M, Ludvigson S, Wachter J. The declining equity premium: What role does macroeconomicrisk play?[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA,2004.
[42] Case KE, Quigley JM, Shiller RJ. Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housingmarket[J]. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics.2005,5(1):1.
[43] Case KE, Quigley JM. How housing booms unwind: income effects, wealth effects, and feedbacksthrough financial markets[J]. European Journal of Housing Policy,2008,8(2):161-180.
[44] Svensson LEO. What is wrong with Taylor rules? Using judgment in monetary policy throughtargeting rules[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA;2003.
[45] Heinemann F, Ullrich K. Does it pay to watch central bankers’lips? The information content of ECBwording[J]. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES).2007,143(II):155-185.
[46] Friedman M, Schwartz AJ, Rese YNBoE. A monetary history of the United States[M]. PrincetonUniversity Press,1963.
[47] Taylor JB. Discretion versus policy rules in practice[R]. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series onpublic policy,1993,39:195-214.
[48] McCallum BT. Alternative monetary policy rules: a comparison with historical settings for theUnited States, the United Kingdom, and Japan[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge,Mass., USA,2000.
[49] Clarida R, Gertler M. How does the Bundesbank conduct monetary policy?[R]. NBER Workingpaper.No.55811996.
[50] Clarida R, Gali J, Gertler M. Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence andSome Theory[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics.2000,115(1):147-180.
[51] Mehra J, Rechenberg H. The historical development of quantum theory[M]. Springer Verlag,2000.
[52] McCallum BT. Monetarist Rules in the Light of Recent Experience[J]. The American EconomicReview.1984,74(2):388-391.
[53] McCallum BT. The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: A concrete example[J]. Reviewof World Economics.1987,123(3):415-429.
[54] Croushore D, Stark T. Evaluating McCallum's rule for monetary policy[J]. Business Review.1995,1:3-14.
[55] Judd JP, Motley B. Using a nominal GDP rule to guide discretionary monetary policy[J]. EconomicReview.19931:3-11.
[56] Svensson LEO. Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets[J].European Economic Review.1997,41(6):1111-1146.
[57] Svensson LEO. Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics.1999,43(3):607-654.
[58] Svensson LEO. Inflation targeting: some extensions[R]. National Bureau of Economic ResearchCambridge, Mass., USA;1999.
[59] Khan A, King RG, Wolman AL. Optimal monetary policy[J]. Review of Economic studies.2003,70(4):825-860.
[60] Giannoni M, Woodford M. Optimal interest-rate rules: I. General theory[R]. National Bureau ofEconomic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA;2003.
[61] Giannoni M, Woodford M. Optimal interest-rate rules: II[R]. NBER working paper No.9420,2002.
[62]范从来.论通货紧缩时期货币政策的有效性[J].经济研究.2000,(7):24-31.
[63]刘斌.货币政策冲击的识别及我国货币政策有效性的实证分析[J].金融研究.2001,(7):1002-7246.
[64]刘金全.货币政策作用的有效性和非对称性研究[J].管理世界.2002,(3):43-51.
[65]高铁梅,刘玉红,王金明.中国转轨时期物价波动的实证分析[J].中国社会科学.2003,(6):73-83.
[66]刘金全,张鹤.我国经济中“托宾效应”和“反托宾效应”的实证检验[J].管理世界.2004,(5):18-24.
[67]冯涛,乔笙,苑为.双重调控下的货币政策绩效研究[J].金融研究.2006,(2):40-51.
[68]耿中元,曾令华.后凯恩斯学派的内生货币假说——中国的例证[J].管理科学.2006,19(4):68-73.
[69]夏斌,廖强.货币供应量已不宜作为当前我国货币政策的中介目标[J].经济研究.2001,(8):33-43.
[70]徐厦楠.论我国货币政策传导中的利率机制[J].金融理论与实践.2004,(8):9-11.
[71]蒋瑛琨,刘艳武,赵振全.货币渠道与信贷渠道传导机制有效性的实证分析——兼论货币政策中介目标的选择[J].金融研究.2005,(5):70-79.
[72]邓瑛.我国上市公司资本结构优化的税收政策研究[D]:湖南大学会计学院硕士学位论文,2005.
[73]李传辉,张蔚.货币中性问题的实证研究[J].山东省农业管理干部学院学报.2006,22(1):75-77.
[74]李传辉.中国民营上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证研究[D],山东大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[75]周锦林.关于我国货币“中性”问题的实证研究[J].经济科学.2002,(1):61-65
[76]范志勇,向弟海.汇率和国际市场价格冲击对国内价格波动的影响[J].金融研究.2006,(2):36-43.
[77]盛松成,吴培新.中国货币政策的二元传导机制――“两中介目标,两调控对象”模式研究[J].经济研究.2008,(10):37-51.
[78]殷克东,赵昕. McCallum规则在我国货币政策中的应用及启示[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2001,18(12):94-97.
[79]谢平,罗雄.泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验[J].经济研究.2002,3(3):3-12.
[80]杨英杰.泰勒规则与麦克勒姆规则在中国货币政策中的检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2002,(12):97-100.
[81]刘明月.泰勒规则在我国的实践需要解决的两大问题[J].上海金融.2003,(9):13-15.
[82]陆军,钟丹.泰勒规则在中国的协整检验[J].经济研究.2003,(8):76-85.
[83]王莹.泰勒规则评析及其对我国货币政策制定的借鉴意义[J].武汉金融.2004,(1):6-8.
[84]陆玉.中国货币政策规则有关问题研究[D].西南财经大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[85]刘越飞.我国货币政策中利率规则分析[D].吉林大学硕士学位论文,2005.
[86]张广现.最优货币政策规则理论及应用研究[D].首都经济贸易大学博士学位论文,2006.
[87]郭洪仙,李晓峰.我国外汇储备增长原因及变动趋势研究[J].财经研究.2004,30(5):37-45.
[88]路程.外汇占款对我国基础货币供给影响研究[D].天津财经大学硕士学位论文;2009.
[89]张书家,费逸.中国外汇储备影响因素的理论与实证分析[J].理论界.2009,(008):56-58.
[90]赵海云.中国货币政策体系框架研究[D].中国人民大学博士学位论文,2008.
[91]贾庆军.改革开放以来中国货币政策理论与实践的演变[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2004.
[92]王宇.论中国货币政策调控机制的改革[J].经济研究.2008,(11):28-34
[93] McKinnon R, Schnabl G. China: a stabilizing or deflationary influence in East Asia? The problem ofconflicted virtue[R]. Stanford Economics Working Paper No.03007, HKIMR Working Paper No.23/2003.2003.
[94] McKinnon RI. Exchange rates under the East Asian dollar standard: Living with conflictedvirtue[M]. The MIT Press,2005.
[95] Boorman JT, Havrilesky TM. Money supply, money demand, and macroeconomic models[M]. Allynand Bacon,1972.
[96] Gosselin MA, Parent N. An empirical analysis of foreign exchange reserves in emerging Asia[R].Bank of Canada,2005.
[97] Pedroni P. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.1999,61(S1):653-670.
[98] Terada-Hagiwara A, Economics ADB, Dept R. Foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate regimes,and monetary policy: issues in Asia[R]. Economics and Research Dept., Asian Development Bank;2005.
[99]魏义俊.外汇储备变动对货币供应影响的实证分析及政策建议[J].南方经济.2005,(5):72-74.
[100]王珍.我国外汇储备增长与物价波动的理论分析与实证分析[J].统计研究.2006,(7):41-45.
[101]池启水.外汇储备增加对基础货币投放的影响―基于协整方法与VAR模型的实证检验[J].数理统计与管理.2008,27(4):686-694.
[102]曲强,张良,扬仁眉.外汇储备增长,货币冲销的有效性及对物价波动的动态影响――基于货币数量论和SVAR的实证研究[J].金融研究.2009,(5):47-60.
[103]张长征.从制度层面解决我国流动性过剩[J].广西金融研究.2007,(5):56-58.
[104]魏晓琴,李蔚蔚,王法良.中国外汇储备与货币供给量的关系——基于双对数模型[J].广东金融学院学报.2007,22(4):22-26.
[105]敖丽.中国国际收支对货币供给影响的实证分析[J].知识经济.康健.2008,(11):66-67.
[106]徐坤.货币供应量与外汇储备和居民储蓄关系的实证分析[J].商业文化(学术版).2007,(9):53-54
[107]李治国,张晓蓉.转型期货币供给内生决定机制:基于货币当局资产负债表的解析[J].统计研究.2009,26(6):13-22.
[108]黄武俊,陈漓高.外汇资产,基础货币供应与货币内生性――基于央行资产负债表的分析[J].财经研究.2010,36(1):66-76.
[109]王永中.中国资本管制与外汇冲销的有效性――基于抵消系数和冲销系数模型[J].金融评论.2010,(1):49-65.
[110] Krolzig HM. Econometric modelling of Markov-switching vector autoregressions using MSVARfor Ox[R]. unpublished, Nuffield College, Oxford.1998.
[111] Ehrmann M, Ellison M, Valla N. Regime-dependent impulse response functions in aMarkov-switching vector autoregression model[J]. Economics Letters.2003,78(3):295-299.
[112] Kashyap AK, Stein JC, Wilcox DW. Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from theComposition of External Finance[J]. American Economic Review.1993,86(1):300-309.
[113] McCallum B. Discretion versus policy rules in practice: two critical points: A comment[R].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy39,1993,215-220
[114] Taylor JB. The monetary transmission mechanism: an empirical framework[J]. The Journal ofEconomic Perspectives.1995,9(4):11-26.
[115] Clarida R, Gali J, Gertler M. The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective[J].Journal of Economic Literature.1999,37(4):1661-1707.
[116]王振山,王志强.我国货币政策传导途径的实证研究[J].财经问题研究.2000,(12):60-63.
[117]陈飞,赵昕东,高铁梅.我国货币政策工具变量效应的实证分析[J].金融研究.2002,(10):25-30.
[118]王国松.通货紧缩下我国货币政策传导的信贷渠道实证分析[J].统计研究.2004,(5):6-11.
[119]孙明华.我国货币政策传导机制的实证分析[J].财经研究.2004,30(3):19-30.
[120]盛朝晖.中国货币政策传导渠道效应分析:1994―2004[J].金融研究.2006,(7):22-29.
[121]莫万贵,王立元.货币供应量和贷款仍是当前合适的货币政策调控目标[J].经济学动态.2008,(2):50-54.
[122] Meltzer AH. Monetary, credit and (other) transmission processes: a monetarist perspective[J]. TheJournal of Economic Perspectives.1995,9(4):49-72.
[123] Bernanke BS, Gertler M. Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policytransmission[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,1995.
[124] Gertler M, Gilchrist S. The cyclical behavior of short term business lending: implications forfinancial propagation mechanisms[R]. Finance and Economics Discussion Series.1993.
[125] Bernanke B, Gertler M, Gilchrist S. The financial accelerator and the flight to quality[R]. NationalBureau of Economic Research,1994.
[126] Primiceri GE. Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy[J]. TheReview of Economic Studies.2005,72(3):821-852.
[127] Benati L, Mumtaz H. The 'Great Stability' in the UK: Good policy or good luck?[R]. manuscript,Research Department, Bank of England.2005.
[128] Baumeister C, Durinck E, Peersman G. Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varyingframework for the euro area[R]. Banque Nationale de Belgique,2009.
[129] Nakajima J, Kasuya M, Watanabe T. Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vectorautoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy[J]. Global COE Hi-StatDiscussion Paper Series.2009.
[130] D'Agostino A, Gambetti L, Giannone D. Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change[R].ECB Working Paper No.1167.2010.
[131]苏亮瑜.我国货币政策传导机制及盯住目标选择[J].金融研究.2008,(5):25-34.
[132] Nakajima J. Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview ofMethodology and Empirical Applications[R]. Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank ofJapan,2011Mar.
[133] Geweke J. Evaluating the Accuracy of Sampling-Based Approaches to the Calculation of PosteriorMoments[R]. Citeseer,1992.
[134] Sims CA. Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy[J].European Economic Review.1992,36(5):975-1000.
[135] Goldstein M, Turner P. Controlling currency mismatches in emerging markets[R]. PetersonInstitute,2004.
[136] Ganapolsky EJJ, Atlanta FRBo. Optimal fear of floating: the role of currency mismatches andfiscal constraints[R]. Federal Reserve Bank ofAtlanta,2003.
[137] Reinhart CM, Rogoff KS, Savastano MA. Debt intolerance: National Bureau of EconomicResearch,2003.
[138] Eichengreen B, Hausmann R, Panizza U. Currency mismatches, debt intolerance and original sin:why they are not the same and why it matters[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2003.
[139] Hausmann R, Panizza U. On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation[J].Journal of International Money and Finance.2003,22(7):957-990.
[140] Goldstein M, Turner P. Currency mismatching in emerging economies[R]. Institute forInternational Economics,2003.
[141] Rojas-Suarez L, Weisbrod SR. Financial fragilities in Latin America: the1980s and1990s[R]. IntlMonetary Fund,1995.
[142] Mishkin FS. Understanding financial crises: a developing country perspective[R]. National Bureauof Economic Research,1997.
[143] Rodriguez CA. Money and credit under currency substitution[R]. International Monetary Fund.1993:414-426.
[144] Prasad E, Wei SJ. The Chinese approach to capital inflows: patterns and possibleexplanations[M].University of Chicago Press,2007.
[145] Yongzhong W. Liberalization of Foreign Exchange Controls: Japan's Experiences and ItsImplications for China[R]. Nikkei Asia Scholarship Research Report FY2008, Japan Center forEconomic Research,2009:119–201.
[146] Obstfeld M. Can We Sterilize? Theory and Evidence[J]. American Economic Review.1982,72(2):45-50.
[147] Siklos PL. Capital flows in a transitional economy and the sterilization dilemma: The hungarianexperience,1992-1997[J]. Journal of Economic Policy Reform.2000,3(4):373-392.
[148] Christensen J. Capital inflows, sterilization, and commercial bank speculation: the case of theCzech Republic in the mid-1990s[R]. International Monetary Fund,2004.
[149] Cavoli T, Rajan RS. Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the1990s Revisited:The Role of Monetary Sterilization[J]. Asian Economic Journal.2006,20(4):409-423.
[150] Argy V, Kouri PJK. Sterilization policies and the volatility in international reserves[J]. NationalMonetary Policies and the International Financial System, Chicago.1974:209-230.
[151] Herring RJ, Marston RC. Sterilization policy: The trade-off between monetary autonomy andcontrol over foreign exchange reserves[J]. European Economic Review.1977,10(3):325-343.
[152] Celasun O, Denizer C. Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financialsystem-Turkey,1989-97[R]. Policy Research Working Paper Series.1999.
[153] Kim G. Exchange rate constraints and money control in Korea[R]. Working Paper Series.1995.
[154] Brissimis SN, Gibson HD, Tsakalotos E. A unifying framework for analysing offsetting capitalflows and sterilization: Germany and the ERM[J]. International Journal of Finance&Economics.2002,7(1):63-78.
[155] Ouyang AY, Rajan RS, Willett T. Managing the monetary consequences of reserve accumulation inemergingAsia[J]. Global Economic Review.2008,37(2):171-199.
[156] Ouyang AY, Rajan RS, Willett TD. China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset andsterilization coefficients[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance.2010,29(5):951-972.
[157]黄武俊,陈漓高.中国国际资本流动与货币政策动态关系:1994―2007――基于BGT模型抵消和冲销系数分析[J].经济科学.2009,(3):36-48.
[158] Burton D, Ha J, Fund IM. Economic reform and the demand for money in China[R]. InternationalMonetary Fund, European Department,990.
[159] Hafer RW, Kutan AM. Economic reforms and long-run money demand in China: implications formonetary policy[J]. Southern Economic Journal.1994,60(4):936-945.
[160]汪红驹.用误差修正模型估计中国货币需求函数[J].世界经济.2002,(5):55-61.
[161] Mehrotra AN. Demand for money in transition: Evidence from China's disinflation[J]. InternationalAdvances in Economic Research.2008,14(1):36-47.
[162] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Wang Y. How stable is the money demand function in China[J]. Journal ofEconomic Development.2007,32:21-33.
[163]易行健.经济开放条件下的货币需求函数:中国的经验[J].世界经济.2006,29(4):49-59.
[164] Laurens B, Maino R. China: Strengthening monetary policy implementation[R]. InternationalMonetary Fund,2007.
[165] Zuo H, Park SY. Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration[J]. China EconomicReview.2011,22(3):330-448.
[166] Engle R, Granger C. Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing[J].Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society.1987,55(2):251-276.
[167] Johansen S. Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vectorautoregressive models[J]. Econometrica.1991,59(6):1551-1580.
[168]蒋瑛琨,赵振全,刘艳武.中国货币需求函数的实证分析――基于两阶段(1978-1993,1994-2004)的动态检验[J].中国软科学.2005,(2):24-33.
[169]张勇,范从来.货币需求函数结构稳定性的实证分析――来自政策变动,经济稳定预期不稳定的证据[J].管理世界.2006,(2):10-17.
[170]赵进文,闵捷.央行货币政策操作效果非对称性实证研究[J].经济研究.2005,(2):26-34.
[171] Austin D, Ward B, Dalziel P. The demand for money in China1987-2004: A non-linear modellingapproach[J]. China Economic Review.2007,18(2):190-204.
[172]宋金奇,雷钦礼.汇率变动与我国货币需求非线性误差修正[J].财经研究.2009,35(2):86-98.
[173]李福祥,何红霞.我国货币需求的短期非线性动态调整特征研究――基于MS―VECM方法[J].金融研究.2010,(4):64-71.
[174] Arango S, Ishaq Nadiri M. Demand for money in open economies[J]. Journal of MonetaryEconomics.1981,7(1):69-83.
[175] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Pourheydarian M. Exchange rate sensitivity of demand for money andeffectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies[J]. Applied Economics.1990,22(7):917-925.
[176] Mcgibany JM, Nourzad F. Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the US[J].International Review of Economics&Finance.1995,4(4):411-425.
[177] Leventakis JA. Modelling money demand in open economies over the modern floating rateperiod[J]. Applied Economics.1993,25(8):1005-1012.
[178] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Malixi M. Exchange rate sensitivity of the demand for money in developingcountries[J]. Applied Economics.1991,23(8):1377-1384.
[179] Arize A, Shwiff SS. The appropriate exchange-rate variable in the money demand of25countries:an empirical investigation[J]. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance.1998,9(2):169-185.
[180]王国松,杨扬.国际资本流动下我国货币需求函数稳定性检验[J].财经研究.2006,32(10):17-25.
[181]万晓莉,霍德明,陈斌开.中国货币需求长期是否稳定?[J].经济研究.2010,(1):39-54.
[182] Knell M, Stix H. Three decades of money demand studies: Differences and similarities[J]. AppliedEconomics.2006,38(7):805-818.
[183] HarveyAC. time series models[M]. The MIT Press,1993.
[184] Koivu T. Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying creditdemand in China[J]. China Economic Review.2009,20(3):455-470.
[2] Friedman M. The role of monetary policy[J]. American Economic Review,1968,58(1):1-17.
[3] Phelps ES. Phillips curves, expectations of inflation and optimal unemployment over time[J].Economica.1967,34(135):254-281.
[4] Muth JF. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements[J]. Econometrica: Journal of theEconometric Society.1961,29(3):315-335.
[5] Lucas Jr RE. Expectations and the Neutrality of Money[J]. Journal of economic theory.1972,4(2):103-124.
[6] Wallace N. A Modigliani-Miller theorem for open-market operations[J]. American Economic Review.1981,71(3):267-274.
[7] Stiglitz JE, Weiss A. Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information[J]. American EconomicReview.1981,71(3):393-410.
[8] Dixit AK, Stiglitz JE. Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity[J]. AmericanEconomic Review.1977,67(3):297-308.
[9] Grossman SJ, Stiglitz JE. On the impossibility of informationally efficient markets[J]. AmericanEconomic Review.1980,70(3):393-408.
[10] Shapiro C, Stiglitz JE. Equilibrium unemployment as a worker discipline device[J]. AmericanEconomic Review.1984,74(3):433-444.
[11] Blanchard OJ, Quah D. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances[J]. TheAmerican Economic Review,1989,79(4):655-673.
[12] Blanchard OJ, Kahn CM. The solution of linear difference models under rational expectations[J].Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society.1980,48(5):1305-1311.
[13] Blanchard OJ. Debt, deficits, and finite horizons[J]. The Journal of Political Economy.1985,93(2):223-247.
[14] Blanchard OJ, Kiyotaki N. Monopolistic competition and the effects of aggregate demand[J].American Economic Review.1987,77(4):647-666.
[15] Mankiw NG, Romer D, Weil DN. A contribution to the empirics of economic growth[J]. TheQuarterly Journal of Economics.1992,107(2):407-437.
[16] Mankiw NG, Reis R. Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the NewKeynesian Phillips Curve[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics.2002,117(4):1295-1328.
[17] Campbell JY, Mankiw NG. Consumption, income and interest rates: Reinterpreting the time seriesevidence[M]. MIT Press,1989.
[18] Fisher I, Brown HG. The purchasing power of money[M]. The Macmillan Company,1912.
[19] MarshallA. Money, credit and commerce[M]. Augustus M. Kelley,1923.
[20] PigouAC. The value of money[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics.1917,32(1):38-65.
[21] Wicksell K. Interest and prices[M].Read Books,2007.
[22] Hicks JR. Mr. keynes and the" classics"; a suggested interpretation[J]. Econometrica: Journal of theEconometric Society.1937,5(2):147-159.
[23] Hansen AH. Monetary theory and fiscal policy[M]. NewYork, McGraw-Hill.,1949.
[24] Friedman M. The quantity theory of money: a restatement[J]. Studies in the quantity theory ofmoney.1956,3:21.
[25] Brunner K, Meltzer AH. Predicting velocity: implications for theory and policy[J]. Journal ofFinance.1963,18(2):319-354.
[26] Tobin J. A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory[J]. Journal of Money, Credit andBanking.1969,1(1):15-29.
[27] Bernanke BS, Blinder AS. Money, credit and aggregate demand[J]. American Economic Review.1988,78(2):901-921.
[28] Bernanke BS, Blinder AS. The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission[J].American Economic Review.1992,82(4):901-921.
[29] Bernanke B, Gertler M. Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations[J]. American EconomicReview.1989,79(1):14-31.
[30] Mundell RA. Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates[J].Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science.1963,29(4):475-485.
[31] Fleming JM. Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates [J]. StaffPapers-International Monetary Fund.1962:369-380.
[32] Cassel G. Abnormal deviations in international exchanges[J]. The Economic Journal.1918,28(112):413-415.
[33] Keynes JM. ATract on Monetary Reform[m]. Macmillan,1923.
[34] Obstfeld M, Rogo K. Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux[J]. Journal of Political Economy.1995,103(3):624-660.
[35] Bonser-Neal C, Roley VV, Sellon Jr GH. Monetary policy actions, intervention, and exchange rates:a reexamination of the empirical relationships using federal funds rate target data[J]. Journal ofBusiness.1998,71(2):147-177.
[36] Nadal-De Simone F, Dennis R, Redward P. A monetary conditions index for New Zealand: ReserveBank of New Zealand;1996.
[37] Ball LM. Policy rules for open economies[M]. University of Chicago Press,1999.
[38] Brissimis SN, Magginas NS, Simigiannis GT et al. Issues in the transmission of monetary policy[J].Greece’s Economic Performance and Prospects.2001:407-428.
[39] Kashyap AK, Stein JC. What do a million observations on banks say about the transmission ofmonetary policy?[J]. American Economic Review.2000,90(3):407-428.
[40] Baum CF, Caglayan M, Ozkan N. The second moments matter: The response of bank lendingbehavior to macroeconomic uncertainty[J]. Journal of Business.2004,71(2),147-177..
[41] Lettau M, Ludvigson S, Wachter J. The declining equity premium: What role does macroeconomicrisk play?[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA,2004.
[42] Case KE, Quigley JM, Shiller RJ. Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housingmarket[J]. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics.2005,5(1):1.
[43] Case KE, Quigley JM. How housing booms unwind: income effects, wealth effects, and feedbacksthrough financial markets[J]. European Journal of Housing Policy,2008,8(2):161-180.
[44] Svensson LEO. What is wrong with Taylor rules? Using judgment in monetary policy throughtargeting rules[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA;2003.
[45] Heinemann F, Ullrich K. Does it pay to watch central bankers’lips? The information content of ECBwording[J]. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES).2007,143(II):155-185.
[46] Friedman M, Schwartz AJ, Rese YNBoE. A monetary history of the United States[M]. PrincetonUniversity Press,1963.
[47] Taylor JB. Discretion versus policy rules in practice[R]. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series onpublic policy,1993,39:195-214.
[48] McCallum BT. Alternative monetary policy rules: a comparison with historical settings for theUnited States, the United Kingdom, and Japan[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge,Mass., USA,2000.
[49] Clarida R, Gertler M. How does the Bundesbank conduct monetary policy?[R]. NBER Workingpaper.No.55811996.
[50] Clarida R, Gali J, Gertler M. Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence andSome Theory[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics.2000,115(1):147-180.
[51] Mehra J, Rechenberg H. The historical development of quantum theory[M]. Springer Verlag,2000.
[52] McCallum BT. Monetarist Rules in the Light of Recent Experience[J]. The American EconomicReview.1984,74(2):388-391.
[53] McCallum BT. The case for rules in the conduct of monetary policy: A concrete example[J]. Reviewof World Economics.1987,123(3):415-429.
[54] Croushore D, Stark T. Evaluating McCallum's rule for monetary policy[J]. Business Review.1995,1:3-14.
[55] Judd JP, Motley B. Using a nominal GDP rule to guide discretionary monetary policy[J]. EconomicReview.19931:3-11.
[56] Svensson LEO. Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets[J].European Economic Review.1997,41(6):1111-1146.
[57] Svensson LEO. Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics.1999,43(3):607-654.
[58] Svensson LEO. Inflation targeting: some extensions[R]. National Bureau of Economic ResearchCambridge, Mass., USA;1999.
[59] Khan A, King RG, Wolman AL. Optimal monetary policy[J]. Review of Economic studies.2003,70(4):825-860.
[60] Giannoni M, Woodford M. Optimal interest-rate rules: I. General theory[R]. National Bureau ofEconomic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA;2003.
[61] Giannoni M, Woodford M. Optimal interest-rate rules: II[R]. NBER working paper No.9420,2002.
[62]范从来.论通货紧缩时期货币政策的有效性[J].经济研究.2000,(7):24-31.
[63]刘斌.货币政策冲击的识别及我国货币政策有效性的实证分析[J].金融研究.2001,(7):1002-7246.
[64]刘金全.货币政策作用的有效性和非对称性研究[J].管理世界.2002,(3):43-51.
[65]高铁梅,刘玉红,王金明.中国转轨时期物价波动的实证分析[J].中国社会科学.2003,(6):73-83.
[66]刘金全,张鹤.我国经济中“托宾效应”和“反托宾效应”的实证检验[J].管理世界.2004,(5):18-24.
[67]冯涛,乔笙,苑为.双重调控下的货币政策绩效研究[J].金融研究.2006,(2):40-51.
[68]耿中元,曾令华.后凯恩斯学派的内生货币假说——中国的例证[J].管理科学.2006,19(4):68-73.
[69]夏斌,廖强.货币供应量已不宜作为当前我国货币政策的中介目标[J].经济研究.2001,(8):33-43.
[70]徐厦楠.论我国货币政策传导中的利率机制[J].金融理论与实践.2004,(8):9-11.
[71]蒋瑛琨,刘艳武,赵振全.货币渠道与信贷渠道传导机制有效性的实证分析——兼论货币政策中介目标的选择[J].金融研究.2005,(5):70-79.
[72]邓瑛.我国上市公司资本结构优化的税收政策研究[D]:湖南大学会计学院硕士学位论文,2005.
[73]李传辉,张蔚.货币中性问题的实证研究[J].山东省农业管理干部学院学报.2006,22(1):75-77.
[74]李传辉.中国民营上市公司资本结构影响因素的实证研究[D],山东大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[75]周锦林.关于我国货币“中性”问题的实证研究[J].经济科学.2002,(1):61-65
[76]范志勇,向弟海.汇率和国际市场价格冲击对国内价格波动的影响[J].金融研究.2006,(2):36-43.
[77]盛松成,吴培新.中国货币政策的二元传导机制――“两中介目标,两调控对象”模式研究[J].经济研究.2008,(10):37-51.
[78]殷克东,赵昕. McCallum规则在我国货币政策中的应用及启示[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2001,18(12):94-97.
[79]谢平,罗雄.泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验[J].经济研究.2002,3(3):3-12.
[80]杨英杰.泰勒规则与麦克勒姆规则在中国货币政策中的检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究.2002,(12):97-100.
[81]刘明月.泰勒规则在我国的实践需要解决的两大问题[J].上海金融.2003,(9):13-15.
[82]陆军,钟丹.泰勒规则在中国的协整检验[J].经济研究.2003,(8):76-85.
[83]王莹.泰勒规则评析及其对我国货币政策制定的借鉴意义[J].武汉金融.2004,(1):6-8.
[84]陆玉.中国货币政策规则有关问题研究[D].西南财经大学硕士学位论文,2006.
[85]刘越飞.我国货币政策中利率规则分析[D].吉林大学硕士学位论文,2005.
[86]张广现.最优货币政策规则理论及应用研究[D].首都经济贸易大学博士学位论文,2006.
[87]郭洪仙,李晓峰.我国外汇储备增长原因及变动趋势研究[J].财经研究.2004,30(5):37-45.
[88]路程.外汇占款对我国基础货币供给影响研究[D].天津财经大学硕士学位论文;2009.
[89]张书家,费逸.中国外汇储备影响因素的理论与实证分析[J].理论界.2009,(008):56-58.
[90]赵海云.中国货币政策体系框架研究[D].中国人民大学博士学位论文,2008.
[91]贾庆军.改革开放以来中国货币政策理论与实践的演变[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2004.
[92]王宇.论中国货币政策调控机制的改革[J].经济研究.2008,(11):28-34
[93] McKinnon R, Schnabl G. China: a stabilizing or deflationary influence in East Asia? The problem ofconflicted virtue[R]. Stanford Economics Working Paper No.03007, HKIMR Working Paper No.23/2003.2003.
[94] McKinnon RI. Exchange rates under the East Asian dollar standard: Living with conflictedvirtue[M]. The MIT Press,2005.
[95] Boorman JT, Havrilesky TM. Money supply, money demand, and macroeconomic models[M]. Allynand Bacon,1972.
[96] Gosselin MA, Parent N. An empirical analysis of foreign exchange reserves in emerging Asia[R].Bank of Canada,2005.
[97] Pedroni P. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.1999,61(S1):653-670.
[98] Terada-Hagiwara A, Economics ADB, Dept R. Foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate regimes,and monetary policy: issues in Asia[R]. Economics and Research Dept., Asian Development Bank;2005.
[99]魏义俊.外汇储备变动对货币供应影响的实证分析及政策建议[J].南方经济.2005,(5):72-74.
[100]王珍.我国外汇储备增长与物价波动的理论分析与实证分析[J].统计研究.2006,(7):41-45.
[101]池启水.外汇储备增加对基础货币投放的影响―基于协整方法与VAR模型的实证检验[J].数理统计与管理.2008,27(4):686-694.
[102]曲强,张良,扬仁眉.外汇储备增长,货币冲销的有效性及对物价波动的动态影响――基于货币数量论和SVAR的实证研究[J].金融研究.2009,(5):47-60.
[103]张长征.从制度层面解决我国流动性过剩[J].广西金融研究.2007,(5):56-58.
[104]魏晓琴,李蔚蔚,王法良.中国外汇储备与货币供给量的关系——基于双对数模型[J].广东金融学院学报.2007,22(4):22-26.
[105]敖丽.中国国际收支对货币供给影响的实证分析[J].知识经济.康健.2008,(11):66-67.
[106]徐坤.货币供应量与外汇储备和居民储蓄关系的实证分析[J].商业文化(学术版).2007,(9):53-54
[107]李治国,张晓蓉.转型期货币供给内生决定机制:基于货币当局资产负债表的解析[J].统计研究.2009,26(6):13-22.
[108]黄武俊,陈漓高.外汇资产,基础货币供应与货币内生性――基于央行资产负债表的分析[J].财经研究.2010,36(1):66-76.
[109]王永中.中国资本管制与外汇冲销的有效性――基于抵消系数和冲销系数模型[J].金融评论.2010,(1):49-65.
[110] Krolzig HM. Econometric modelling of Markov-switching vector autoregressions using MSVARfor Ox[R]. unpublished, Nuffield College, Oxford.1998.
[111] Ehrmann M, Ellison M, Valla N. Regime-dependent impulse response functions in aMarkov-switching vector autoregression model[J]. Economics Letters.2003,78(3):295-299.
[112] Kashyap AK, Stein JC, Wilcox DW. Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from theComposition of External Finance[J]. American Economic Review.1993,86(1):300-309.
[113] McCallum B. Discretion versus policy rules in practice: two critical points: A comment[R].Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy39,1993,215-220
[114] Taylor JB. The monetary transmission mechanism: an empirical framework[J]. The Journal ofEconomic Perspectives.1995,9(4):11-26.
[115] Clarida R, Gali J, Gertler M. The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective[J].Journal of Economic Literature.1999,37(4):1661-1707.
[116]王振山,王志强.我国货币政策传导途径的实证研究[J].财经问题研究.2000,(12):60-63.
[117]陈飞,赵昕东,高铁梅.我国货币政策工具变量效应的实证分析[J].金融研究.2002,(10):25-30.
[118]王国松.通货紧缩下我国货币政策传导的信贷渠道实证分析[J].统计研究.2004,(5):6-11.
[119]孙明华.我国货币政策传导机制的实证分析[J].财经研究.2004,30(3):19-30.
[120]盛朝晖.中国货币政策传导渠道效应分析:1994―2004[J].金融研究.2006,(7):22-29.
[121]莫万贵,王立元.货币供应量和贷款仍是当前合适的货币政策调控目标[J].经济学动态.2008,(2):50-54.
[122] Meltzer AH. Monetary, credit and (other) transmission processes: a monetarist perspective[J]. TheJournal of Economic Perspectives.1995,9(4):49-72.
[123] Bernanke BS, Gertler M. Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policytransmission[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,1995.
[124] Gertler M, Gilchrist S. The cyclical behavior of short term business lending: implications forfinancial propagation mechanisms[R]. Finance and Economics Discussion Series.1993.
[125] Bernanke B, Gertler M, Gilchrist S. The financial accelerator and the flight to quality[R]. NationalBureau of Economic Research,1994.
[126] Primiceri GE. Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy[J]. TheReview of Economic Studies.2005,72(3):821-852.
[127] Benati L, Mumtaz H. The 'Great Stability' in the UK: Good policy or good luck?[R]. manuscript,Research Department, Bank of England.2005.
[128] Baumeister C, Durinck E, Peersman G. Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varyingframework for the euro area[R]. Banque Nationale de Belgique,2009.
[129] Nakajima J, Kasuya M, Watanabe T. Bayesian analysis of time-varying parameter vectorautoregressive model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy[J]. Global COE Hi-StatDiscussion Paper Series.2009.
[130] D'Agostino A, Gambetti L, Giannone D. Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change[R].ECB Working Paper No.1167.2010.
[131]苏亮瑜.我国货币政策传导机制及盯住目标选择[J].金融研究.2008,(5):25-34.
[132] Nakajima J. Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview ofMethodology and Empirical Applications[R]. Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank ofJapan,2011Mar.
[133] Geweke J. Evaluating the Accuracy of Sampling-Based Approaches to the Calculation of PosteriorMoments[R]. Citeseer,1992.
[134] Sims CA. Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy[J].European Economic Review.1992,36(5):975-1000.
[135] Goldstein M, Turner P. Controlling currency mismatches in emerging markets[R]. PetersonInstitute,2004.
[136] Ganapolsky EJJ, Atlanta FRBo. Optimal fear of floating: the role of currency mismatches andfiscal constraints[R]. Federal Reserve Bank ofAtlanta,2003.
[137] Reinhart CM, Rogoff KS, Savastano MA. Debt intolerance: National Bureau of EconomicResearch,2003.
[138] Eichengreen B, Hausmann R, Panizza U. Currency mismatches, debt intolerance and original sin:why they are not the same and why it matters[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2003.
[139] Hausmann R, Panizza U. On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation[J].Journal of International Money and Finance.2003,22(7):957-990.
[140] Goldstein M, Turner P. Currency mismatching in emerging economies[R]. Institute forInternational Economics,2003.
[141] Rojas-Suarez L, Weisbrod SR. Financial fragilities in Latin America: the1980s and1990s[R]. IntlMonetary Fund,1995.
[142] Mishkin FS. Understanding financial crises: a developing country perspective[R]. National Bureauof Economic Research,1997.
[143] Rodriguez CA. Money and credit under currency substitution[R]. International Monetary Fund.1993:414-426.
[144] Prasad E, Wei SJ. The Chinese approach to capital inflows: patterns and possibleexplanations[M].University of Chicago Press,2007.
[145] Yongzhong W. Liberalization of Foreign Exchange Controls: Japan's Experiences and ItsImplications for China[R]. Nikkei Asia Scholarship Research Report FY2008, Japan Center forEconomic Research,2009:119–201.
[146] Obstfeld M. Can We Sterilize? Theory and Evidence[J]. American Economic Review.1982,72(2):45-50.
[147] Siklos PL. Capital flows in a transitional economy and the sterilization dilemma: The hungarianexperience,1992-1997[J]. Journal of Economic Policy Reform.2000,3(4):373-392.
[148] Christensen J. Capital inflows, sterilization, and commercial bank speculation: the case of theCzech Republic in the mid-1990s[R]. International Monetary Fund,2004.
[149] Cavoli T, Rajan RS. Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the1990s Revisited:The Role of Monetary Sterilization[J]. Asian Economic Journal.2006,20(4):409-423.
[150] Argy V, Kouri PJK. Sterilization policies and the volatility in international reserves[J]. NationalMonetary Policies and the International Financial System, Chicago.1974:209-230.
[151] Herring RJ, Marston RC. Sterilization policy: The trade-off between monetary autonomy andcontrol over foreign exchange reserves[J]. European Economic Review.1977,10(3):325-343.
[152] Celasun O, Denizer C. Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financialsystem-Turkey,1989-97[R]. Policy Research Working Paper Series.1999.
[153] Kim G. Exchange rate constraints and money control in Korea[R]. Working Paper Series.1995.
[154] Brissimis SN, Gibson HD, Tsakalotos E. A unifying framework for analysing offsetting capitalflows and sterilization: Germany and the ERM[J]. International Journal of Finance&Economics.2002,7(1):63-78.
[155] Ouyang AY, Rajan RS, Willett T. Managing the monetary consequences of reserve accumulation inemergingAsia[J]. Global Economic Review.2008,37(2):171-199.
[156] Ouyang AY, Rajan RS, Willett TD. China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset andsterilization coefficients[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance.2010,29(5):951-972.
[157]黄武俊,陈漓高.中国国际资本流动与货币政策动态关系:1994―2007――基于BGT模型抵消和冲销系数分析[J].经济科学.2009,(3):36-48.
[158] Burton D, Ha J, Fund IM. Economic reform and the demand for money in China[R]. InternationalMonetary Fund, European Department,990.
[159] Hafer RW, Kutan AM. Economic reforms and long-run money demand in China: implications formonetary policy[J]. Southern Economic Journal.1994,60(4):936-945.
[160]汪红驹.用误差修正模型估计中国货币需求函数[J].世界经济.2002,(5):55-61.
[161] Mehrotra AN. Demand for money in transition: Evidence from China's disinflation[J]. InternationalAdvances in Economic Research.2008,14(1):36-47.
[162] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Wang Y. How stable is the money demand function in China[J]. Journal ofEconomic Development.2007,32:21-33.
[163]易行健.经济开放条件下的货币需求函数:中国的经验[J].世界经济.2006,29(4):49-59.
[164] Laurens B, Maino R. China: Strengthening monetary policy implementation[R]. InternationalMonetary Fund,2007.
[165] Zuo H, Park SY. Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration[J]. China EconomicReview.2011,22(3):330-448.
[166] Engle R, Granger C. Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing[J].Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society.1987,55(2):251-276.
[167] Johansen S. Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vectorautoregressive models[J]. Econometrica.1991,59(6):1551-1580.
[168]蒋瑛琨,赵振全,刘艳武.中国货币需求函数的实证分析――基于两阶段(1978-1993,1994-2004)的动态检验[J].中国软科学.2005,(2):24-33.
[169]张勇,范从来.货币需求函数结构稳定性的实证分析――来自政策变动,经济稳定预期不稳定的证据[J].管理世界.2006,(2):10-17.
[170]赵进文,闵捷.央行货币政策操作效果非对称性实证研究[J].经济研究.2005,(2):26-34.
[171] Austin D, Ward B, Dalziel P. The demand for money in China1987-2004: A non-linear modellingapproach[J]. China Economic Review.2007,18(2):190-204.
[172]宋金奇,雷钦礼.汇率变动与我国货币需求非线性误差修正[J].财经研究.2009,35(2):86-98.
[173]李福祥,何红霞.我国货币需求的短期非线性动态调整特征研究――基于MS―VECM方法[J].金融研究.2010,(4):64-71.
[174] Arango S, Ishaq Nadiri M. Demand for money in open economies[J]. Journal of MonetaryEconomics.1981,7(1):69-83.
[175] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Pourheydarian M. Exchange rate sensitivity of demand for money andeffectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies[J]. Applied Economics.1990,22(7):917-925.
[176] Mcgibany JM, Nourzad F. Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the US[J].International Review of Economics&Finance.1995,4(4):411-425.
[177] Leventakis JA. Modelling money demand in open economies over the modern floating rateperiod[J]. Applied Economics.1993,25(8):1005-1012.
[178] Bahmani-Oskooee M, Malixi M. Exchange rate sensitivity of the demand for money in developingcountries[J]. Applied Economics.1991,23(8):1377-1384.
[179] Arize A, Shwiff SS. The appropriate exchange-rate variable in the money demand of25countries:an empirical investigation[J]. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance.1998,9(2):169-185.
[180]王国松,杨扬.国际资本流动下我国货币需求函数稳定性检验[J].财经研究.2006,32(10):17-25.
[181]万晓莉,霍德明,陈斌开.中国货币需求长期是否稳定?[J].经济研究.2010,(1):39-54.
[182] Knell M, Stix H. Three decades of money demand studies: Differences and similarities[J]. AppliedEconomics.2006,38(7):805-818.
[183] HarveyAC. time series models[M]. The MIT Press,1993.
[184] Koivu T. Has the Chinese economy become more sensitive to interest rates? Studying creditdemand in China[J]. China Economic Review.2009,20(3):455-470.