人民币汇率失调的测算及汇率传递效应研究
|
摘要
在我国改革开放的进程中,人民币汇率与国内物价水平之间出现了多次背离。是什么原因导致汇率与物价这一对反映货币价值的孪生变量背道而驰?这种背离对货币当局的政策制定与实施产生了怎样的冲击?为了解开疑惑,探讨人民币汇率与国内物价之间的长期关系显得非常必要。然而当作者试图沿着人民币汇率制度改革的历史脉络去探寻二者的关系时,却发现当前人民币汇率与国内物价之间的关系只是表象上的。人民币汇率失调与物价水平变动之间的内在联系是导致二者出现背离的深层次原因。这种联系体现为汇率低估与通货膨胀并存,而汇率高估与通货紧缩并存。以人民币汇率失调与物价水平变动之间的关系为研究对象,更有助于揭示当前汇率与物价走势背离的深层次原因,并能够针对问题所在提出更有效的政策建议。基于这样的考虑,本文沿着如下脉络展开研究。
本文共分七章,第1章引言部分交代了本文的选题背景、研究意义、研究现状、论文的研究方法等。
第2章评述了购买力平价理论、基本要素均衡汇率理论、行为均衡汇率理论等均衡汇率与汇率失调的理论和测算方法,经过对比分析选择以BEER方法测算人民币均衡汇率。
第3章根据BEER模型的需要选择劳动生产率等六个基本经济变量作为解释变量,构建人民币行为均衡汇率理论方程,运用协整分析方法分别以1980~2009年的年度数据及1994~2009年的季度数据对人民币行为均衡汇率协整方程进行了估计,并据此计算人民币均衡汇率及汇率失调程度。基于年度数据和季度数据的测算结果的对比显示,在相同的时间段内,即1994~2009年期间,均衡汇率走势及汇率失调程度十分相近。基于年度数据的结果显示1980~1994年间,人民币汇率失调程度较高。1980~1982年间人民币实际有效汇率处于低估状态,接下来三年处于高估状态。1986~1994年间实际有效汇率长期处于低估状态。基于季度数据进行的实证分析测算结果显示自1994年至今人民币长期均衡汇率存在着一个总体上升的趋势,原因在于我国人均GDP相对世界人均GDP的比值呈持续上升之势。测算结果表明在观测期人民币实际有效汇率交替出现低估与高估的现象,但是人民币实际有效汇率与长期均衡汇率之间的长期趋势是吻合的,总体上不存在严重的汇率失调。
第4章回顾了人民币汇率制度改革进程以及我国物价水平变动情况。1994年外汇管理体制改革之前,人民币汇率处于高度管制状态,汇率水平与我国经济状况脱节。自1994年以来,人民币汇率制度市场化程度逐渐提高,汇率变动对我国国内经济及对外经济的影响力不断提升。随着我国经济对外依赖程度的提高,外部需求的变化通过人民币汇率传递对我国国内物价水平的影响日趋显著。1978年改革开放以来,我国经历过多次通货膨胀,分别发生在1980年、1984~1989年、1993~1995年、2003~2008年。1998~2002年我国还出现了长达5年的通货紧缩,2008年下半年受次贷危机引发的全球金融危机影响,我国物价指数持续下降,再次出现了通货紧缩的迹象。
第5章对汇率失调与物价水平关系进行了理论探讨和分析,以汇率传递理论作为研究我国汇率传递问题的基础,结合汇率的变动分析了汇率传递的机制和汇率失调对物价水平的影响机制。
第6章实证分析汇率失调对我国国内物价水平的影响。通过对样本期间人民币汇率失调与国内物价水平变动的考察发现二者之间存在着较为明确的对应关系,即通货膨胀对应汇率低估,通货紧缩对应汇率高估。格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,汇率失调是我国物价水平变动的格兰杰原因,反过来,我国物价水平变动不是汇率失调的格兰杰原因。我国物价水平变动的主要影响因素是其自身的冲击,汇率失调与我国物价水平变动呈反向。基于VAR模型的人民币实际有效汇率传递效应研究结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率对国内价格的传递是负向的并且是沿着价格链递减的,对进口价格的传递程度最高,对工业品出厂价格的传递程度次之,对消费价格的传递程度最低。方差分解结果表明在众多变量中汇率变动对价格的冲击影响力度较弱。汇率传递存在明显的时滞,进口价格传递时滞为5个季度、工业品出厂价格与消费价格传递时滞均为6个季度。进一步基于非线性门限误差修正模型的研究结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率与消费价格指数之间存在着非线性协整关系。
第7章针对人民币汇率失调与国内物价水平关系的研究结果,提出相应的政策建议。首先,人民币实际有效汇率不存在的严重失调的状况,近期人民币汇率低估程度只有3.59%,因此,从实际有效汇率角度考虑货币当局无需对人民币汇率实施大幅度调整。而应抓住当前的契机深化汇率制度改革。其次,调整外向型经济发展战略,降低对外依赖程度。将经济增长的动力更多地转向国内消费上。最后,加强资本流动监控,严控热钱流出入,消除人民币升值的非理性预期,特别要处理好治理通胀与人民币升值之间的关系。
In the process of China’s reform and opening, there are a number of divergences between the RMB exchange rate and the domestic price. What causes the twin sides of the monetary value on the opposite road? How the divergent affect the monetary authority's policy and its implementation? In order to solve the doubt, it is necessary to research the long-term relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the domestic price. However, when the author attempts to explore the relationship in context of the RMB exchange rate regime reforming, but found the relationship between current RMB exchange rate and domestic price is only an appearance. The intrinsic link between RMB exchange rate misalignment and changes in price levels is the deep-seated reasons. This link appears to be the contemporary existence of exchange rate devaluation (or overvaluation) and inflation (or deflation). To chose the relationship between RMB exchange rate misalignment and changes in price levels to be the research object, it is not only helpful for revealing the deep-seated reasons but also for making more effective policy recommendations. Based on this consideration, this paper makes a study along the following context.
This paper is divided into seven chapters, chapter I give introduction of the research background, significance, research status and the methods.
Chapter II reviews the equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment theory and measurement methods such as the purchasing power parity theory, the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate theory, behavioral equilibrium exchange rate theory etc. through comparative analysis, we selected BEER to be the methods.
Chapter III following the need of BEER model we select six fundamentals such as labor productivity to be explanatory variables, and construct a theoretical equation of RMB behavioral equilibrium exchange rate, using cointegration analysis based on yearly data of 1980-2009 data and quarterly data 1994-2009, we get the equation of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB and calculate the Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Misalignment level. The estimates results based on yearly data and quarterly data show that the trend of equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment is very similar during the period of 1994 to 2009.Based on the results of yearly data from 1980 to 1994, the RMB exchange rate misalignment is higher. From 1980 to1982, real effective exchange rate of RMB is undervalued, overvalued the next three years and undervalued during 1986 to 1994.The estimated results based on quarterly data show that there is an overall upward trend of long-term equilibrium exchange rate of RMB lies in that the ratio of Chinese per-capita GDP relative to the world per-capita GDP makes a rapid rise. The RMB REER sometimes devalued and other times overvalued, but its trend is consistent with the EREER, means that there is no serious misalignment.
Chapter IV we reviews the process of the RMB exchange rate regime reform and China's price level changes. Before 1994, foreign exchange management system reform, the RMB exchange rate was rigid, and deviated from China economic conditions. Since 1994, the market degree of the RMB exchange rate gradually increased, exchange rate movements and foreign economic had more influence on our domestic economy. As the higher China's economy openning degree, changes in external demand did more effects on China's price level from exchange rate pass-through. Since the 1978 reform and opening up, China has experienced many times of inflation, respectively, in 1980, 1984~1989, 1993~1995, from 2003~ 2008. In 1998 to 2002, China has also appeared deflation. Since 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, China's price index continued to decline, deflation once again.
Chapter V we give the theoretical analysis of the impact that exchange rate misalignment make to domestic prices based on pass-through theory.
Chapter VI we make emprical analysis of the exchange rate misalignment effects on domestic prices. We find there is corresponding relations between the two variables during sample period. That an undervalued exchange rate via inflation, overvalued exchange rate via deflation. Granger causality test results show that exchange rate misalignment is the Granger cause of the price changes, in turn, price changes is not a Granger cause of exchange rate misalignment. Exchange rate misalignment and the price changes was the reverse in China. The real effective exchange rate pass-through based on VAR model show that the real effective exchange rate pass-through on domestic prices is negative and decreasing along the price chain, pass-through on import prices is the highest, the second one is that on producer price and the lowest one is that on consumer prices. There are lags of pass-through. For import price it is 5 quarters, industrial producer prices and consumer prices are 6 quarters. The variance decomposition results in the VAR model show that exchange rate changes impact on prices is weak corresponding to other variables. Further, results based on the nonlinear threshold error correction model show that there is non-linear cointegration between the real effective exchange rate and consumer price index.
Chapter VII provide some corresponding policy recommendations according to the analysis results. Firstly, there is no serious misalignment of real effective exchange rate, recently, the RMB exchange rate is only 3.59% undervalued so that the monetary authorities have no need to change the level of RMB exchange rate. They should seize the current opportunity to deepen the exchange rate system reform. Secondly, China should adjust export-oriented economic development strategy, reduce the degree of external dependence, switch the driving force of economic growth more towards domestic consumption. Finally, strengthen the capital flows monitoring, and control hot money flow, eliminate the non-rational expectations of RMB appreciation. In particular, handle well the relationship between the RMB appreciation and inflation control.
本文共分七章,第1章引言部分交代了本文的选题背景、研究意义、研究现状、论文的研究方法等。
第2章评述了购买力平价理论、基本要素均衡汇率理论、行为均衡汇率理论等均衡汇率与汇率失调的理论和测算方法,经过对比分析选择以BEER方法测算人民币均衡汇率。
第3章根据BEER模型的需要选择劳动生产率等六个基本经济变量作为解释变量,构建人民币行为均衡汇率理论方程,运用协整分析方法分别以1980~2009年的年度数据及1994~2009年的季度数据对人民币行为均衡汇率协整方程进行了估计,并据此计算人民币均衡汇率及汇率失调程度。基于年度数据和季度数据的测算结果的对比显示,在相同的时间段内,即1994~2009年期间,均衡汇率走势及汇率失调程度十分相近。基于年度数据的结果显示1980~1994年间,人民币汇率失调程度较高。1980~1982年间人民币实际有效汇率处于低估状态,接下来三年处于高估状态。1986~1994年间实际有效汇率长期处于低估状态。基于季度数据进行的实证分析测算结果显示自1994年至今人民币长期均衡汇率存在着一个总体上升的趋势,原因在于我国人均GDP相对世界人均GDP的比值呈持续上升之势。测算结果表明在观测期人民币实际有效汇率交替出现低估与高估的现象,但是人民币实际有效汇率与长期均衡汇率之间的长期趋势是吻合的,总体上不存在严重的汇率失调。
第4章回顾了人民币汇率制度改革进程以及我国物价水平变动情况。1994年外汇管理体制改革之前,人民币汇率处于高度管制状态,汇率水平与我国经济状况脱节。自1994年以来,人民币汇率制度市场化程度逐渐提高,汇率变动对我国国内经济及对外经济的影响力不断提升。随着我国经济对外依赖程度的提高,外部需求的变化通过人民币汇率传递对我国国内物价水平的影响日趋显著。1978年改革开放以来,我国经历过多次通货膨胀,分别发生在1980年、1984~1989年、1993~1995年、2003~2008年。1998~2002年我国还出现了长达5年的通货紧缩,2008年下半年受次贷危机引发的全球金融危机影响,我国物价指数持续下降,再次出现了通货紧缩的迹象。
第5章对汇率失调与物价水平关系进行了理论探讨和分析,以汇率传递理论作为研究我国汇率传递问题的基础,结合汇率的变动分析了汇率传递的机制和汇率失调对物价水平的影响机制。
第6章实证分析汇率失调对我国国内物价水平的影响。通过对样本期间人民币汇率失调与国内物价水平变动的考察发现二者之间存在着较为明确的对应关系,即通货膨胀对应汇率低估,通货紧缩对应汇率高估。格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,汇率失调是我国物价水平变动的格兰杰原因,反过来,我国物价水平变动不是汇率失调的格兰杰原因。我国物价水平变动的主要影响因素是其自身的冲击,汇率失调与我国物价水平变动呈反向。基于VAR模型的人民币实际有效汇率传递效应研究结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率对国内价格的传递是负向的并且是沿着价格链递减的,对进口价格的传递程度最高,对工业品出厂价格的传递程度次之,对消费价格的传递程度最低。方差分解结果表明在众多变量中汇率变动对价格的冲击影响力度较弱。汇率传递存在明显的时滞,进口价格传递时滞为5个季度、工业品出厂价格与消费价格传递时滞均为6个季度。进一步基于非线性门限误差修正模型的研究结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率与消费价格指数之间存在着非线性协整关系。
第7章针对人民币汇率失调与国内物价水平关系的研究结果,提出相应的政策建议。首先,人民币实际有效汇率不存在的严重失调的状况,近期人民币汇率低估程度只有3.59%,因此,从实际有效汇率角度考虑货币当局无需对人民币汇率实施大幅度调整。而应抓住当前的契机深化汇率制度改革。其次,调整外向型经济发展战略,降低对外依赖程度。将经济增长的动力更多地转向国内消费上。最后,加强资本流动监控,严控热钱流出入,消除人民币升值的非理性预期,特别要处理好治理通胀与人民币升值之间的关系。
In the process of China’s reform and opening, there are a number of divergences between the RMB exchange rate and the domestic price. What causes the twin sides of the monetary value on the opposite road? How the divergent affect the monetary authority's policy and its implementation? In order to solve the doubt, it is necessary to research the long-term relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the domestic price. However, when the author attempts to explore the relationship in context of the RMB exchange rate regime reforming, but found the relationship between current RMB exchange rate and domestic price is only an appearance. The intrinsic link between RMB exchange rate misalignment and changes in price levels is the deep-seated reasons. This link appears to be the contemporary existence of exchange rate devaluation (or overvaluation) and inflation (or deflation). To chose the relationship between RMB exchange rate misalignment and changes in price levels to be the research object, it is not only helpful for revealing the deep-seated reasons but also for making more effective policy recommendations. Based on this consideration, this paper makes a study along the following context.
This paper is divided into seven chapters, chapter I give introduction of the research background, significance, research status and the methods.
Chapter II reviews the equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment theory and measurement methods such as the purchasing power parity theory, the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate theory, behavioral equilibrium exchange rate theory etc. through comparative analysis, we selected BEER to be the methods.
Chapter III following the need of BEER model we select six fundamentals such as labor productivity to be explanatory variables, and construct a theoretical equation of RMB behavioral equilibrium exchange rate, using cointegration analysis based on yearly data of 1980-2009 data and quarterly data 1994-2009, we get the equation of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB and calculate the Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Misalignment level. The estimates results based on yearly data and quarterly data show that the trend of equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment is very similar during the period of 1994 to 2009.Based on the results of yearly data from 1980 to 1994, the RMB exchange rate misalignment is higher. From 1980 to1982, real effective exchange rate of RMB is undervalued, overvalued the next three years and undervalued during 1986 to 1994.The estimated results based on quarterly data show that there is an overall upward trend of long-term equilibrium exchange rate of RMB lies in that the ratio of Chinese per-capita GDP relative to the world per-capita GDP makes a rapid rise. The RMB REER sometimes devalued and other times overvalued, but its trend is consistent with the EREER, means that there is no serious misalignment.
Chapter IV we reviews the process of the RMB exchange rate regime reform and China's price level changes. Before 1994, foreign exchange management system reform, the RMB exchange rate was rigid, and deviated from China economic conditions. Since 1994, the market degree of the RMB exchange rate gradually increased, exchange rate movements and foreign economic had more influence on our domestic economy. As the higher China's economy openning degree, changes in external demand did more effects on China's price level from exchange rate pass-through. Since the 1978 reform and opening up, China has experienced many times of inflation, respectively, in 1980, 1984~1989, 1993~1995, from 2003~ 2008. In 1998 to 2002, China has also appeared deflation. Since 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, China's price index continued to decline, deflation once again.
Chapter V we give the theoretical analysis of the impact that exchange rate misalignment make to domestic prices based on pass-through theory.
Chapter VI we make emprical analysis of the exchange rate misalignment effects on domestic prices. We find there is corresponding relations between the two variables during sample period. That an undervalued exchange rate via inflation, overvalued exchange rate via deflation. Granger causality test results show that exchange rate misalignment is the Granger cause of the price changes, in turn, price changes is not a Granger cause of exchange rate misalignment. Exchange rate misalignment and the price changes was the reverse in China. The real effective exchange rate pass-through based on VAR model show that the real effective exchange rate pass-through on domestic prices is negative and decreasing along the price chain, pass-through on import prices is the highest, the second one is that on producer price and the lowest one is that on consumer prices. There are lags of pass-through. For import price it is 5 quarters, industrial producer prices and consumer prices are 6 quarters. The variance decomposition results in the VAR model show that exchange rate changes impact on prices is weak corresponding to other variables. Further, results based on the nonlinear threshold error correction model show that there is non-linear cointegration between the real effective exchange rate and consumer price index.
Chapter VII provide some corresponding policy recommendations according to the analysis results. Firstly, there is no serious misalignment of real effective exchange rate, recently, the RMB exchange rate is only 3.59% undervalued so that the monetary authorities have no need to change the level of RMB exchange rate. They should seize the current opportunity to deepen the exchange rate system reform. Secondly, China should adjust export-oriented economic development strategy, reduce the degree of external dependence, switch the driving force of economic growth more towards domestic consumption. Finally, strengthen the capital flows monitoring, and control hot money flow, eliminate the non-rational expectations of RMB appreciation. In particular, handle well the relationship between the RMB appreciation and inflation control.
引文
1 Montiel. P. J,1999,“The Long - Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Research”, In Hinkle, L. E. and Montiel, P. J. ( ed. ) , Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing countries, Oxford University Press.
2同上。
3 Ofair Razin,Susan M. Collins, 1997,“Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth”, NBER Working Paper No6174.
4 P.Isard.Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies .IMF Working Paper,No07296, December 2007.
5丁剑平,人民币汇率与制度问题的实证研究,上海财经大学出版社,2003.10。
6 P.Isard.Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies .IMF Working Paper,No.07296, December 2007.
7 Edwards, S, 1989,“Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Concepts and Measurement”, NBER Working Paper No. 2950.
8 Clark, P.B., MacDonald, R, 1998,“Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: a Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs”. IMF Working paper. No.67.
9 MacDonald, R, 1997,“What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It”. IMF Working paper. No.21.
10 Niko Hobdari.Tanzania’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. IMF Working Paper No. 08138. May 2008.
11 Ricci,Milesi-Ferretti and Lee.Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:A Cross-Country Perspective IMF Working Paper. No. 0813. January2008
12 Branson(1972,H.W. Branson .the Trade Effects of the 1971 Currency Realignments,Brookings papers on Economic Activity,1:1972,p15-58.
13 Magee.S.P,Currency Contracts,Pass-through,and Devaluation,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,March 1973.
14 Branson(1972,H.W. Branson .the Trade Effects of the 1971 Currency Realignments,Brookings papers on Economic Activity,1:1972,p15-58.
15 Kravis,lipsey and Kalter, Export Prices and Exchange Rates,NBER Working Paper,No.182,July 1977.
16 Dornbusch, R., 1987,“Exchange Rates and Prices,”American Economic Review, No. 77(1),pp.93–106.
17 Goldberg, P. K. and M. M. Knetter, 1997.“Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?”Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35(3), (September),pp. 1243–1272.
18 Bouakez、Rebei.Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada,Journal of International Economics 2008,75,p249-267
19中国金融年鉴1995P32-33。
20中国金融年鉴1996P28-29。
21中国金融年鉴1997P31-32。
22 2007年中央银行货币政策报告。
23中国金融年鉴1998年、1999年。
24中国金融年鉴2000年。
25 2001、2002中央银行货币政策报告。
26 2007、2008、2009年中央银行货币政策报告。
27 Duma Nombulelo.Pass-Through of Exteral Shocks to Inflation in Sri Lanka.IMF Working Papers, Mar. 2008, No.0878.
28 Choudhri,Faruqee and Hakura,Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Different Prices,IMF Working Paper,Dec.2002,No.224.
29 Faruqee, Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area: the Role of Asymmetric Pricing Behavior, IMF Working Paper,Jan.2004,No.14.
30事实上存在常数项本身也是与汇率传递效应相矛盾的。
[1] Almukhtar S.Al-Abri,Barry K.Goodwin,“Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration”,International Review of Economics and Finance, Sept.2007.
[2] Baldwin,1988,“Hysteresis in Import Prices: the Beachhead Effect”,Richard Baldwin, March 1988,NBER working paper No 2524
[3] Atsushi Iimi, 2006,“Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rates (BEER) to Botswana”, IMF Working paper. No.140.
[4] Bergin、Feenstra,Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Competition between Floaters and Fixers,Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Supplement to Vol. 41, No. 1 February 2009.
[5] Bhundia, A., 2002,“An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa,”IMF Working Paper 02/165
[6] Bosworth, Barry, 2004,“Valuing the RMB”, Paper presented to Tokyo Club Research Meeting, February. Belaisch, A., 2003,“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil,”IMF Working Paper 03/141
[7] Bouakez、Rebei(2008,Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada,Journal of International Economics 2008,75,p249-267 )
[8] Branson ( 1972 , H.W. Branson .the Trade Effects of the 1971 Currency Realignments,Brookings papers on Economic Activity,1:1972,p15-58)
[9] Bu, Y. & Tyers, R, 2001,“China’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Counter factual Analysis”. February Working Papers in Economics No. 390.
[10] Campa, JoséManuel, and Linda Goldberg, 2005,“Exchange Rate Pass-through into Import Prices,”Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 87 (November), pp. 679–690.
[11] Campa, JoséManuel, and Jose M. Gonzalez Minguez, 2006,“Differences in Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area,”European Economic Review, Vol. 50 (January), pp. 121–145.
[12] Clark, P.B., MacDonald, R, 1998,“Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: a Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs”. IMF Working paper. No.67.
[13] Clark, P B and MacDonald, R. 2000,“Filtering the BEER: a permanent and transitory decomposition”. IMF Working Paper.No.144.
[14] Choudhri, Ehsan U., and Dalia S. Hakura, 2001,“Exchange Rate Pass-Through to CPI: Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?,”IMF Working Paper 01/194
[15] Choudhri, Ehsan U., Hamid Faruqee, and Dalia S. Hakura, 2002,“Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Different Prices,”IMF Working Paper 02/224
[16] Corsetti,Dedola,Leduc,DSGE Models of High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through,Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,International Finance Discussion Papers,2005,Number845
[17] Corsetti,Dedola,Leduc ,High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through, Journal of Monetary Economics55,2008,1113-1128
[18] Corsetti,Pesenti,International Dimension of Optimal Monetary Policy ,Journal of Monetary Economics ,Vol. 52 ,2005.
[19] Devereux and Engel ,Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revised : Exchange RateFlexibility and Price Setting Behavior , Review of EconomicStudies ,Vol. 70 ,2003.
[20] Dornbusch, R., 1987,“Exchange Rates and Prices,”American Economic Review, No. 77(1),pp. 93–106.
[21] Edwards, S, 1989,“Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Concepts and Measurement”, NBER Working Paper No. 2950.
[22] Elbadawi, I. A, 1994 ,“Estimating Long Run Equilibrium Exchange Rate,”in John Williamson, ed. Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 93 - 133.
[23] Faruqee, Hamid, 2006,“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area,”IMF Staff Papers, Vol.53, pp. 63–88.
[24] Feenstra、Kendall(1991,Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices, NBERWP3644,1991.3
[25] Frankel, J., 2004,“On the Renminbi: The Choice Between Adjustment Under A Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment Under a Flexible Rate,”NBER Working Paper 11274(Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
[26] Gabriel Di Bella,Mark Lewis,Aurelie Martin,2007,“Assessing Competitiveness and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Low-Income Counties”, IMF Working Paper.No.201.
[27] Gilles J.Dufrenot,Etienne B.Yehoue,2005,“Real Exchange Rate Assessment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis”IMF Working Paper.No.164.
[28] Goldstein, M., 2004,“Adjusting China’s Exchange Rate Policies,”Paper presented at the International Monetary Fund’s Seminar on China’s Foreign Exchange System,Dalian, China, May 26-27.
[29] Goldberg, P. K. and M. M. Knetter, 1997.“Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?”Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35(3), (September),pp. 1243–1272,.
[30] Hahn, Elke, 2003,“Pass-through of External Shocks to Euro Area Inflation,”ECB Working Paper No. 243, March
[31] Hansen B. E., and Seo, B. Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.110, 2002, pp.293-318.
[32] Isard, Peter, Hamid Faruqee, 1998,“Exchange Rate Assessment: Extensions of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach”. Occasional Paper 167. IMF, Washington, D.C.
[33] Isard. Peter.Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies .IMF Working Paper,No.07296, December 2007.
[34] Krugman, P., 1987, Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes. In: Arndt, Sven, Richardson (Eds.), Real-Financial Linkages among Open Economies, pp. 49–70, (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press)
[35] Kravis,lipsey and Kalter, Export Prices and Exchange Rates,NBER Working Paper,No.182,July 1977.
[36] MacDonald, R, 1997,“What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It”,IMF Working paper. No.21.
[37] Mann, C. L. Prices, Profi ts Margins, and Exchange Rates. Federal Reserve Bulletin, June 1986, 366-79.)
[38] Mann,Catherine L.The Effects of Exchange Rate Trends and Volatility on Export Prices:Industry Examples from Japan, Germany and the United States. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv125(3),1989,p588-618
[39] Magee.S.P, Currency Contracts,Pass-through,and Devaluation,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,March 1973.
[40] Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, NewDirections for Stochastic Open Economy Models ,Journal of International Economics ,Vol. 50 ,2000.
[41] Marazzi,Sheets and Vigfusson,“Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices:Some New Evidence”,FRS Discussion Papers, No 833,April 2005.
[42] McCarthy, J., 2000,“Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies,”Staff Report No. 111, (New York:Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
[43] Menon.Jayant,“Exchange Rate Pass-through”,Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 9 ,1995.
[44] Montiel. P. J,1999,“The Long - Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Research”, In Hinkle, L. E. and Montiel, P. J. ( ed. ) ,Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing countries, Oxford University Press.
[45] Mwase, N., 2006,“An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania,”IMF Working Paper 06/150.
[46] Niko Hobdari.Tanzania’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. IMF Working Paper No. 08138. May 2008.
[47] Ofair Razin,Susan M. Collins, 1997,“Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth”, NBER Working Paper No6174.
[48] Pollard,P.,and Coughlin,C.“Size Matters:Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through at the Industry Level”,FRS Working Paper,July 2004.
[49] Ricci,Ferretti and Lee, 2008,“Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:A Cross-Country Perspective”. IMF Working Paper No13. January 2008.
[50] Robinson,1947,The Foreign Exchanges.in Essays in the Theory of Employment. Oxford: basil blackwell.
[51] Stein, J.L, 1994,“The natural real exchange rate of the US dollar and determinants of capital flows In: Williamson, J. Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates”. Institute for International Economics,Washington, D.C.
[52] Smets, Frank, and Raf Wouters, 2002,“Openness, Imperfect Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy,”Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 49 (July), pp. 947–81.
[53] Steven Dunaway, Xiangming Li, 2005,“Estimating China’s“Equilibrium”Real Exchange Rates”. IMF Working Paper No202.
[54] Taylor, John B., 2000,“Low Inflation, Pass-through, and the Pricing Power of Firms,”European Economic Review, Vol. 44 (June), pp. 1389–1408.
[55] Virginie Coudert, 2005,“Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China”, IMF Working Paper No01.
[56] Virginie Coudert, Cecile Couharde, 2007,“Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?”, Journal of Asian Economics,2007(18):568- 594.
[57] William A. Master,Elena Ianchovichina,1998,“Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: Inflation Differentials and Domestic Relative Prices”, World Development,Vol.26,No.3:465-477.
[58] Williamson, John, 1983,“The Exchange Rate System”, Policy Analyses in International Economics 5, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
[59] YIN-Wong Cheung, Menzie D.Chinn, Eiji Fujii, 2008,“Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies”, NBER Working Paper No14168.
[60] Zhichao Zhang, 2001,“Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Comparative Economics, (29): 80-94.
[1]毕玉江,朱钟棣.人民币汇率变动的价格传递效应[J].财经研究,2006(7).
[2]卜永祥.人民币汇率变动对国内物价水平的影响[J].金融研究,2001(3).
[3]曹阳,李剑武.人民币实际汇率水平与波动对进出口贸易的影响[J].世界经济研究,2006(8).
[4]曹永福.格兰杰因果性检验评述[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(1).
[5]陈浪南等.汇率变动对外国直接投资影响的实证研究[J].投资研究,1999(2).
[6]陈浪南,何秀红,陈云.人民币汇率波动的价格传导效应研究,国际金融研究,2008.6:55-62
[7]陈六傅,刘厚俊.人民币汇率的价格传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证分析,金融研究,2007.4P1-13
[8]陈平凡.汇率变动对直接投资吸引力影响的研究[J].福建行政学院经济管理干部学院学报,2005(2).
[9]陈学彬,李世刚,芦东.中国出口汇率传递率和盯市能力的实证研究,经济研究,2007.12: 106-117
[10]储幼阳.人民币均衡汇率实证研究[J].国际金融研究,2004,(5).19-24.
[11]戴祖祥.我国贸易收支的弹性分析:1981-1995[J].经济研究,1997(7).
[12]丁剑平,李菲.货币升值对不同产业就业的影响[J].河北经贸大学学报,2006(4).
[13]窦祥胜.人民币均衡汇率估计——不同方法的比较[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004 (4): 34-41.
[14]鄂永健,丁剑平.实际汇率与就业:基于内生劳动力供给的跨期均衡分析[J].财经研究,2006(4).
[15]范从来,曹丽.人民币汇率走势的实证分析[J].经济科学,2004,(1).
[16]范志勇,向弟海.汇率和国际市场价格冲击对国内价格波动的影响[J].金融研究,2006(2).
[17]范言慧,宋旺.实际汇率对就业的影响:对中国制造业总体的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005(4).
[18]冯芸,吴冲峰.一种新的汇率波动度量方法:波动率法[J].世界经济,2001,(8).
[19]胡援成,曾超.中国汇率制度的现实选择及调控[J].金融研究,2004,(12).
[20]胡再勇.人民币行为均衡汇率及错位程度的测算研究:1978-2006[J].当代财经,2008(1): 41-47.
[21]黄志勇.汇率变化对我国FDI的实证分析[J].南京财经大学学报,2005(4).
[22]金雪军,郭舒萍.人民币汇率变动对我国就业状况的影响[J].新金融,2004(12).
[23]金中夏.论中国实际汇率管理改革[J].经济研究,1995,(3).
[24]纪敏.本轮国内价格波动的外部冲击因素考察[J].金融研究,2009.6:31-43
[25]姜波克,李怀定.均衡汇率理论文献评述[J].当代财经,2006(2):44-49.
[26]李广众.实际汇率错位、汇率波动性及其对制造业出口贸易影响的实证分析[J].管理世界,2004(11).
[27]李亚新,余明.关于人民币实际有效汇率的测算与应用研究[J].国际金融研究,2004(10): 62-67
[28]林伯强.人民币均衡实际汇率的估计与实际汇率错位的测算[J].经济研究,2002,(12):60-69.
[29]刘莉亚,任若恩.人民币均衡汇率的实证研究[J].统计研究, 2002(5) : 28-32.
[30]刘阳.人民币均衡汇率及汇率动态[J].经济科学, 2004 (1) : 83-92.
[31]卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率对我国进出口的影响[J].经济研究,2005(5).
[32]罗忠州.关于汇率对进口价格转嫁效应的实证分析[J].金融研究,2004(11).
[33]倪克勤,曹伟.人民币汇率变动的不完全传递研究:理论与实证[J].金融研究,2009.6:44-59
[34]秦宛顺,靳云汇,卜永祥.人民币汇率水平的合理性[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004(7): 26-30.
[35]邱立成,刘文军.人民币汇率水平的高低与波动对外国直接投资的影响[J].经济科学,2006(1).
[36]沈国兵,杨毅.“人民币实际有效汇率与中国贸易收支关系”[J].《中共南京市委党校南京行政学院学报》,2005年第5期.
[37]施建淮,余海丰.人民币均衡汇率与汇率失调:1994-2004[J].经济研究,2005,(4).34-45
[38]施建淮,傅雄广,许伟.人民币汇率变动对我国价格水平的传递[J].经济研究,2008.7:52-64
[39]宋志刚,丁一兵.新兴市场国家的汇率波动与出口:一个经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005(9).
[40]孙刚,赵新.人民币均衡汇率经验分析——应用行为均衡汇率模型的测算[J].东北财经大学学报,2006(11):12-17.
[41]孙立坚,吴刚,李安心.国际贸易中的价格传递效应的实证研究[J].世界经济文汇,2003(4).
[42]孙立坚,江彦.关于“通缩出口”论的检验:中、日、美三国比较[J].管理世界,2003
[43]万解秋,徐涛.汇率调整对中国就业的影响[J].经济研究,2004(2).
[44]万正晓.基于实际有效汇率变动趋势的人民币汇率问题研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,(2).
[45]王曦,才国伟.人民币合意升值幅度的一种算法[J].经济研究,2007(5):27-41.
[46]王胜,李睿君,国际价格竞争与人民币汇率传递的实证研究[J].金融研究2009.5:9-21
[47]王维国,黄万阳.人民币均衡实际汇率研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005,(7):3-14.
[48]魏巍贤,李丕东.人民币均衡实际汇率实证研究:1980——2006[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(5):51-56.
[49]吴丽华,王锋.人民币实际汇率错位的经济效应实证研究[J].经济研究,2006(7).15-28.
[50]吴志明,郭予锴,汇率制度改革前后人民币汇率传递效应研究——以2005年7月汇率制度改革为界[J].经济评论2010.2:120-127
[51]吴骏,周永务.对人民币均衡汇率探讨[J].预测,2005(2):52-54.
[52]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支[J].世界经济,2002(9).
[53]徐明棋.人民币汇率:相关问题与理论思索[J].世界经济研究,2004(7).
[54]徐群.人民币均衡汇率实证研究文献综述[J].商业研究,2008(4):83-87.
[55]俞乔.论我国汇率政策与国内目标的冲突及协调[J].经济研究,1999(7).
[56]俞乔.购买力平价、实际汇率与国际竞争力[J].金融研究,2000,(1).
[57]赵大平.人民币汇率变动的价格传递及其对中国贸易收支影响的理论和实证研究[D].上海:复旦大学经济学院,2006.
[58]赵志君,金森俊树.人民币汇率重估:实证分析与政策含义[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2006(10):48-56.
[59]张斌.人民币真实汇率:概念、测量与解析[J].经济学季刊,2005,(2).
[60]张斌.人民币均衡汇率:简约一般均衡下的单方程模型研究[J].世界经济,2003,(11):3-12.
[61]张立光.人民币均衡汇率及汇率失调程度的测算与分析:1994～2006[J].山东财政学院学报,2008(1):43-47.
[62]张晓朴.均衡与失调:1978-1999人民币汇率合理性评估[J].金融研究,2000,(8):13-24.
[63]张晓朴.人民币均衡汇率的理论与模型[J].经济研究,1999(12):70-77.
[64]张瀛,王浣尘.人民币实际均衡汇率——跨时期均衡模型[J].世界经济,2004(8):18-25.
[1] [美]马利亚里斯,[美]布罗克.经济学和金融学中的随机方法——现代金融方法论丛书[M].陈守东,李小军,李元译.上海:上海人民出版社,2004年4月.
[2] [美]莫里斯·戈尔茨坦,[美]格拉谢拉·L.凯宾斯基,[美]卡门·M.瑞哈特.金融脆弱性实证分析——新兴市场早期预警体系的构建[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2005年版.
[3]卜永祥,秦宛顺.人民币内外均衡论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2006.
[4]陈岱孙,厉以宁.国际金融学说史[M].北京:中国金融出版社,1991.
[5]杜进朝.汇率变动与贸易发展M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2004.
[6]甘道尔夫.国际经济学(第二卷):国际货币理论与开放经济的宏观经济学[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2001年版.
[7]高铁梅主编.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年版.
[8]古扎拉蒂.计量经济学基础(第四版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[9]姜波克.国际金融学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999.
[10]姜波克,陆前进.汇率理论和政策研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2000.
[11]姜波克.国际金融新编(第三版)[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001.
[12]里维里恩.国际货币经济学前沿问题[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2000:15-50.
[13]李子奈,叶阿忠.高等计量经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000.
[14]罗纳德·麦金农,大野健一.美元与日元:化解美日两国的经济冲突(中文版)[M].上海:上海远东出版社,1999.
[15]潘国陵.国际金融理论与数量分析方法[M].上海:上海三联书店,2000.
[16]孙杰.汇率与国际收支[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1999.
[17]孙立坚.开放经济中的外部冲击效应和汇率安排[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2005.
[18]唐国兴,徐剑刚.现代汇率理论及模型研究[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2003.
[19]王光伟.货币、利率与汇率经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.
[20]伍德里奇.经济计量学导论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[21]许少强,李天栋,姜波克.均衡汇率与人民币汇率政策[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.
[22]许少强、马丹、宋兆晗.人民币实际汇率研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.
[23]杨长江.人民币实际汇率:长期调整趋势研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002.
[24]赵登峰.人民币市场均衡汇率与实际均衡汇率研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005.
[25]张纯威.人民币名义汇率超稳定研究[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2005.
[26]张静,汪寿阳.人民币均衡汇率与中国外贸[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005.
[27]张晓朴.人民币均衡汇率研究[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2001.
2同上。
3 Ofair Razin,Susan M. Collins, 1997,“Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth”, NBER Working Paper No6174.
4 P.Isard.Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies .IMF Working Paper,No07296, December 2007.
5丁剑平,人民币汇率与制度问题的实证研究,上海财经大学出版社,2003.10。
6 P.Isard.Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies .IMF Working Paper,No.07296, December 2007.
7 Edwards, S, 1989,“Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Concepts and Measurement”, NBER Working Paper No. 2950.
8 Clark, P.B., MacDonald, R, 1998,“Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: a Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs”. IMF Working paper. No.67.
9 MacDonald, R, 1997,“What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It”. IMF Working paper. No.21.
10 Niko Hobdari.Tanzania’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. IMF Working Paper No. 08138. May 2008.
11 Ricci,Milesi-Ferretti and Lee.Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:A Cross-Country Perspective IMF Working Paper. No. 0813. January2008
12 Branson(1972,H.W. Branson .the Trade Effects of the 1971 Currency Realignments,Brookings papers on Economic Activity,1:1972,p15-58.
13 Magee.S.P,Currency Contracts,Pass-through,and Devaluation,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,March 1973.
14 Branson(1972,H.W. Branson .the Trade Effects of the 1971 Currency Realignments,Brookings papers on Economic Activity,1:1972,p15-58.
15 Kravis,lipsey and Kalter, Export Prices and Exchange Rates,NBER Working Paper,No.182,July 1977.
16 Dornbusch, R., 1987,“Exchange Rates and Prices,”American Economic Review, No. 77(1),pp.93–106.
17 Goldberg, P. K. and M. M. Knetter, 1997.“Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?”Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35(3), (September),pp. 1243–1272.
18 Bouakez、Rebei.Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada,Journal of International Economics 2008,75,p249-267
19中国金融年鉴1995P32-33。
20中国金融年鉴1996P28-29。
21中国金融年鉴1997P31-32。
22 2007年中央银行货币政策报告。
23中国金融年鉴1998年、1999年。
24中国金融年鉴2000年。
25 2001、2002中央银行货币政策报告。
26 2007、2008、2009年中央银行货币政策报告。
27 Duma Nombulelo.Pass-Through of Exteral Shocks to Inflation in Sri Lanka.IMF Working Papers, Mar. 2008, No.0878.
28 Choudhri,Faruqee and Hakura,Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Different Prices,IMF Working Paper,Dec.2002,No.224.
29 Faruqee, Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area: the Role of Asymmetric Pricing Behavior, IMF Working Paper,Jan.2004,No.14.
30事实上存在常数项本身也是与汇率传递效应相矛盾的。
[1] Almukhtar S.Al-Abri,Barry K.Goodwin,“Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration”,International Review of Economics and Finance, Sept.2007.
[2] Baldwin,1988,“Hysteresis in Import Prices: the Beachhead Effect”,Richard Baldwin, March 1988,NBER working paper No 2524
[3] Atsushi Iimi, 2006,“Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rates (BEER) to Botswana”, IMF Working paper. No.140.
[4] Bergin、Feenstra,Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Competition between Floaters and Fixers,Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Supplement to Vol. 41, No. 1 February 2009.
[5] Bhundia, A., 2002,“An Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa,”IMF Working Paper 02/165
[6] Bosworth, Barry, 2004,“Valuing the RMB”, Paper presented to Tokyo Club Research Meeting, February. Belaisch, A., 2003,“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil,”IMF Working Paper 03/141
[7] Bouakez、Rebei(2008,Has exchange rate pass-through really declined? Evidence from Canada,Journal of International Economics 2008,75,p249-267 )
[8] Branson ( 1972 , H.W. Branson .the Trade Effects of the 1971 Currency Realignments,Brookings papers on Economic Activity,1:1972,p15-58)
[9] Bu, Y. & Tyers, R, 2001,“China’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Counter factual Analysis”. February Working Papers in Economics No. 390.
[10] Campa, JoséManuel, and Linda Goldberg, 2005,“Exchange Rate Pass-through into Import Prices,”Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 87 (November), pp. 679–690.
[11] Campa, JoséManuel, and Jose M. Gonzalez Minguez, 2006,“Differences in Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area,”European Economic Review, Vol. 50 (January), pp. 121–145.
[12] Clark, P.B., MacDonald, R, 1998,“Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: a Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs”. IMF Working paper. No.67.
[13] Clark, P B and MacDonald, R. 2000,“Filtering the BEER: a permanent and transitory decomposition”. IMF Working Paper.No.144.
[14] Choudhri, Ehsan U., and Dalia S. Hakura, 2001,“Exchange Rate Pass-Through to CPI: Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?,”IMF Working Paper 01/194
[15] Choudhri, Ehsan U., Hamid Faruqee, and Dalia S. Hakura, 2002,“Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Different Prices,”IMF Working Paper 02/224
[16] Corsetti,Dedola,Leduc,DSGE Models of High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through,Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,International Finance Discussion Papers,2005,Number845
[17] Corsetti,Dedola,Leduc ,High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through, Journal of Monetary Economics55,2008,1113-1128
[18] Corsetti,Pesenti,International Dimension of Optimal Monetary Policy ,Journal of Monetary Economics ,Vol. 52 ,2005.
[19] Devereux and Engel ,Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revised : Exchange RateFlexibility and Price Setting Behavior , Review of EconomicStudies ,Vol. 70 ,2003.
[20] Dornbusch, R., 1987,“Exchange Rates and Prices,”American Economic Review, No. 77(1),pp. 93–106.
[21] Edwards, S, 1989,“Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Concepts and Measurement”, NBER Working Paper No. 2950.
[22] Elbadawi, I. A, 1994 ,“Estimating Long Run Equilibrium Exchange Rate,”in John Williamson, ed. Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 93 - 133.
[23] Faruqee, Hamid, 2006,“Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area,”IMF Staff Papers, Vol.53, pp. 63–88.
[24] Feenstra、Kendall(1991,Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices, NBERWP3644,1991.3
[25] Frankel, J., 2004,“On the Renminbi: The Choice Between Adjustment Under A Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment Under a Flexible Rate,”NBER Working Paper 11274(Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
[26] Gabriel Di Bella,Mark Lewis,Aurelie Martin,2007,“Assessing Competitiveness and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Low-Income Counties”, IMF Working Paper.No.201.
[27] Gilles J.Dufrenot,Etienne B.Yehoue,2005,“Real Exchange Rate Assessment: A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis”IMF Working Paper.No.164.
[28] Goldstein, M., 2004,“Adjusting China’s Exchange Rate Policies,”Paper presented at the International Monetary Fund’s Seminar on China’s Foreign Exchange System,Dalian, China, May 26-27.
[29] Goldberg, P. K. and M. M. Knetter, 1997.“Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?”Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35(3), (September),pp. 1243–1272,.
[30] Hahn, Elke, 2003,“Pass-through of External Shocks to Euro Area Inflation,”ECB Working Paper No. 243, March
[31] Hansen B. E., and Seo, B. Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.110, 2002, pp.293-318.
[32] Isard, Peter, Hamid Faruqee, 1998,“Exchange Rate Assessment: Extensions of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach”. Occasional Paper 167. IMF, Washington, D.C.
[33] Isard. Peter.Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies .IMF Working Paper,No.07296, December 2007.
[34] Krugman, P., 1987, Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes. In: Arndt, Sven, Richardson (Eds.), Real-Financial Linkages among Open Economies, pp. 49–70, (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press)
[35] Kravis,lipsey and Kalter, Export Prices and Exchange Rates,NBER Working Paper,No.182,July 1977.
[36] MacDonald, R, 1997,“What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It”,IMF Working paper. No.21.
[37] Mann, C. L. Prices, Profi ts Margins, and Exchange Rates. Federal Reserve Bulletin, June 1986, 366-79.)
[38] Mann,Catherine L.The Effects of Exchange Rate Trends and Volatility on Export Prices:Industry Examples from Japan, Germany and the United States. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv125(3),1989,p588-618
[39] Magee.S.P, Currency Contracts,Pass-through,and Devaluation,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,March 1973.
[40] Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, NewDirections for Stochastic Open Economy Models ,Journal of International Economics ,Vol. 50 ,2000.
[41] Marazzi,Sheets and Vigfusson,“Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices:Some New Evidence”,FRS Discussion Papers, No 833,April 2005.
[42] McCarthy, J., 2000,“Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies,”Staff Report No. 111, (New York:Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
[43] Menon.Jayant,“Exchange Rate Pass-through”,Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 9 ,1995.
[44] Montiel. P. J,1999,“The Long - Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Research”, In Hinkle, L. E. and Montiel, P. J. ( ed. ) ,Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing countries, Oxford University Press.
[45] Mwase, N., 2006,“An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania,”IMF Working Paper 06/150.
[46] Niko Hobdari.Tanzania’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. IMF Working Paper No. 08138. May 2008.
[47] Ofair Razin,Susan M. Collins, 1997,“Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth”, NBER Working Paper No6174.
[48] Pollard,P.,and Coughlin,C.“Size Matters:Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through at the Industry Level”,FRS Working Paper,July 2004.
[49] Ricci,Ferretti and Lee, 2008,“Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals:A Cross-Country Perspective”. IMF Working Paper No13. January 2008.
[50] Robinson,1947,The Foreign Exchanges.in Essays in the Theory of Employment. Oxford: basil blackwell.
[51] Stein, J.L, 1994,“The natural real exchange rate of the US dollar and determinants of capital flows In: Williamson, J. Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates”. Institute for International Economics,Washington, D.C.
[52] Smets, Frank, and Raf Wouters, 2002,“Openness, Imperfect Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy,”Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 49 (July), pp. 947–81.
[53] Steven Dunaway, Xiangming Li, 2005,“Estimating China’s“Equilibrium”Real Exchange Rates”. IMF Working Paper No202.
[54] Taylor, John B., 2000,“Low Inflation, Pass-through, and the Pricing Power of Firms,”European Economic Review, Vol. 44 (June), pp. 1389–1408.
[55] Virginie Coudert, 2005,“Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China”, IMF Working Paper No01.
[56] Virginie Coudert, Cecile Couharde, 2007,“Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China is the renminbi undervalued?”, Journal of Asian Economics,2007(18):568- 594.
[57] William A. Master,Elena Ianchovichina,1998,“Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: Inflation Differentials and Domestic Relative Prices”, World Development,Vol.26,No.3:465-477.
[58] Williamson, John, 1983,“The Exchange Rate System”, Policy Analyses in International Economics 5, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
[59] YIN-Wong Cheung, Menzie D.Chinn, Eiji Fujii, 2008,“Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies”, NBER Working Paper No14168.
[60] Zhichao Zhang, 2001,“Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Comparative Economics, (29): 80-94.
[1]毕玉江,朱钟棣.人民币汇率变动的价格传递效应[J].财经研究,2006(7).
[2]卜永祥.人民币汇率变动对国内物价水平的影响[J].金融研究,2001(3).
[3]曹阳,李剑武.人民币实际汇率水平与波动对进出口贸易的影响[J].世界经济研究,2006(8).
[4]曹永福.格兰杰因果性检验评述[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(1).
[5]陈浪南等.汇率变动对外国直接投资影响的实证研究[J].投资研究,1999(2).
[6]陈浪南,何秀红,陈云.人民币汇率波动的价格传导效应研究,国际金融研究,2008.6:55-62
[7]陈六傅,刘厚俊.人民币汇率的价格传递效应——基于VAR模型的实证分析,金融研究,2007.4P1-13
[8]陈平凡.汇率变动对直接投资吸引力影响的研究[J].福建行政学院经济管理干部学院学报,2005(2).
[9]陈学彬,李世刚,芦东.中国出口汇率传递率和盯市能力的实证研究,经济研究,2007.12: 106-117
[10]储幼阳.人民币均衡汇率实证研究[J].国际金融研究,2004,(5).19-24.
[11]戴祖祥.我国贸易收支的弹性分析:1981-1995[J].经济研究,1997(7).
[12]丁剑平,李菲.货币升值对不同产业就业的影响[J].河北经贸大学学报,2006(4).
[13]窦祥胜.人民币均衡汇率估计——不同方法的比较[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004 (4): 34-41.
[14]鄂永健,丁剑平.实际汇率与就业:基于内生劳动力供给的跨期均衡分析[J].财经研究,2006(4).
[15]范从来,曹丽.人民币汇率走势的实证分析[J].经济科学,2004,(1).
[16]范志勇,向弟海.汇率和国际市场价格冲击对国内价格波动的影响[J].金融研究,2006(2).
[17]范言慧,宋旺.实际汇率对就业的影响:对中国制造业总体的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005(4).
[18]冯芸,吴冲峰.一种新的汇率波动度量方法:波动率法[J].世界经济,2001,(8).
[19]胡援成,曾超.中国汇率制度的现实选择及调控[J].金融研究,2004,(12).
[20]胡再勇.人民币行为均衡汇率及错位程度的测算研究:1978-2006[J].当代财经,2008(1): 41-47.
[21]黄志勇.汇率变化对我国FDI的实证分析[J].南京财经大学学报,2005(4).
[22]金雪军,郭舒萍.人民币汇率变动对我国就业状况的影响[J].新金融,2004(12).
[23]金中夏.论中国实际汇率管理改革[J].经济研究,1995,(3).
[24]纪敏.本轮国内价格波动的外部冲击因素考察[J].金融研究,2009.6:31-43
[25]姜波克,李怀定.均衡汇率理论文献评述[J].当代财经,2006(2):44-49.
[26]李广众.实际汇率错位、汇率波动性及其对制造业出口贸易影响的实证分析[J].管理世界,2004(11).
[27]李亚新,余明.关于人民币实际有效汇率的测算与应用研究[J].国际金融研究,2004(10): 62-67
[28]林伯强.人民币均衡实际汇率的估计与实际汇率错位的测算[J].经济研究,2002,(12):60-69.
[29]刘莉亚,任若恩.人民币均衡汇率的实证研究[J].统计研究, 2002(5) : 28-32.
[30]刘阳.人民币均衡汇率及汇率动态[J].经济科学, 2004 (1) : 83-92.
[31]卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率对我国进出口的影响[J].经济研究,2005(5).
[32]罗忠州.关于汇率对进口价格转嫁效应的实证分析[J].金融研究,2004(11).
[33]倪克勤,曹伟.人民币汇率变动的不完全传递研究:理论与实证[J].金融研究,2009.6:44-59
[34]秦宛顺,靳云汇,卜永祥.人民币汇率水平的合理性[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004(7): 26-30.
[35]邱立成,刘文军.人民币汇率水平的高低与波动对外国直接投资的影响[J].经济科学,2006(1).
[36]沈国兵,杨毅.“人民币实际有效汇率与中国贸易收支关系”[J].《中共南京市委党校南京行政学院学报》,2005年第5期.
[37]施建淮,余海丰.人民币均衡汇率与汇率失调:1994-2004[J].经济研究,2005,(4).34-45
[38]施建淮,傅雄广,许伟.人民币汇率变动对我国价格水平的传递[J].经济研究,2008.7:52-64
[39]宋志刚,丁一兵.新兴市场国家的汇率波动与出口:一个经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005(9).
[40]孙刚,赵新.人民币均衡汇率经验分析——应用行为均衡汇率模型的测算[J].东北财经大学学报,2006(11):12-17.
[41]孙立坚,吴刚,李安心.国际贸易中的价格传递效应的实证研究[J].世界经济文汇,2003(4).
[42]孙立坚,江彦.关于“通缩出口”论的检验:中、日、美三国比较[J].管理世界,2003
[43]万解秋,徐涛.汇率调整对中国就业的影响[J].经济研究,2004(2).
[44]万正晓.基于实际有效汇率变动趋势的人民币汇率问题研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,(2).
[45]王曦,才国伟.人民币合意升值幅度的一种算法[J].经济研究,2007(5):27-41.
[46]王胜,李睿君,国际价格竞争与人民币汇率传递的实证研究[J].金融研究2009.5:9-21
[47]王维国,黄万阳.人民币均衡实际汇率研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005,(7):3-14.
[48]魏巍贤,李丕东.人民币均衡实际汇率实证研究:1980——2006[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(5):51-56.
[49]吴丽华,王锋.人民币实际汇率错位的经济效应实证研究[J].经济研究,2006(7).15-28.
[50]吴志明,郭予锴,汇率制度改革前后人民币汇率传递效应研究——以2005年7月汇率制度改革为界[J].经济评论2010.2:120-127
[51]吴骏,周永务.对人民币均衡汇率探讨[J].预测,2005(2):52-54.
[52]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支[J].世界经济,2002(9).
[53]徐明棋.人民币汇率:相关问题与理论思索[J].世界经济研究,2004(7).
[54]徐群.人民币均衡汇率实证研究文献综述[J].商业研究,2008(4):83-87.
[55]俞乔.论我国汇率政策与国内目标的冲突及协调[J].经济研究,1999(7).
[56]俞乔.购买力平价、实际汇率与国际竞争力[J].金融研究,2000,(1).
[57]赵大平.人民币汇率变动的价格传递及其对中国贸易收支影响的理论和实证研究[D].上海:复旦大学经济学院,2006.
[58]赵志君,金森俊树.人民币汇率重估:实证分析与政策含义[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2006(10):48-56.
[59]张斌.人民币真实汇率:概念、测量与解析[J].经济学季刊,2005,(2).
[60]张斌.人民币均衡汇率:简约一般均衡下的单方程模型研究[J].世界经济,2003,(11):3-12.
[61]张立光.人民币均衡汇率及汇率失调程度的测算与分析:1994～2006[J].山东财政学院学报,2008(1):43-47.
[62]张晓朴.均衡与失调:1978-1999人民币汇率合理性评估[J].金融研究,2000,(8):13-24.
[63]张晓朴.人民币均衡汇率的理论与模型[J].经济研究,1999(12):70-77.
[64]张瀛,王浣尘.人民币实际均衡汇率——跨时期均衡模型[J].世界经济,2004(8):18-25.
[1] [美]马利亚里斯,[美]布罗克.经济学和金融学中的随机方法——现代金融方法论丛书[M].陈守东,李小军,李元译.上海:上海人民出版社,2004年4月.
[2] [美]莫里斯·戈尔茨坦,[美]格拉谢拉·L.凯宾斯基,[美]卡门·M.瑞哈特.金融脆弱性实证分析——新兴市场早期预警体系的构建[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2005年版.
[3]卜永祥,秦宛顺.人民币内外均衡论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2006.
[4]陈岱孙,厉以宁.国际金融学说史[M].北京:中国金融出版社,1991.
[5]杜进朝.汇率变动与贸易发展M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2004.
[6]甘道尔夫.国际经济学(第二卷):国际货币理论与开放经济的宏观经济学[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2001年版.
[7]高铁梅主编.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年版.
[8]古扎拉蒂.计量经济学基础(第四版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[9]姜波克.国际金融学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1999.
[10]姜波克,陆前进.汇率理论和政策研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2000.
[11]姜波克.国际金融新编(第三版)[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001.
[12]里维里恩.国际货币经济学前沿问题[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2000:15-50.
[13]李子奈,叶阿忠.高等计量经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2000.
[14]罗纳德·麦金农,大野健一.美元与日元:化解美日两国的经济冲突(中文版)[M].上海:上海远东出版社,1999.
[15]潘国陵.国际金融理论与数量分析方法[M].上海:上海三联书店,2000.
[16]孙杰.汇率与国际收支[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1999.
[17]孙立坚.开放经济中的外部冲击效应和汇率安排[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2005.
[18]唐国兴,徐剑刚.现代汇率理论及模型研究[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2003.
[19]王光伟.货币、利率与汇率经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.
[20]伍德里奇.经济计量学导论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[21]许少强,李天栋,姜波克.均衡汇率与人民币汇率政策[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.
[22]许少强、马丹、宋兆晗.人民币实际汇率研究[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.
[23]杨长江.人民币实际汇率:长期调整趋势研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002.
[24]赵登峰.人民币市场均衡汇率与实际均衡汇率研究[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005.
[25]张纯威.人民币名义汇率超稳定研究[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2005.
[26]张静,汪寿阳.人民币均衡汇率与中国外贸[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2005.
[27]张晓朴.人民币均衡汇率研究[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2001.