产品内国际分工与中国产业发展
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摘要
随着经济全球化和信息化的发展,以中间投入品进出口为特征的产品内国际分工成为国际贸易的主要形式,日益成为一国嵌入全球价值链的主要方式。不同国家通过外包和分包专业化在产品内某环节生产,呈现出“分割化”、“价值链切片”的垂直分工格局,加速了国际产业转移和产业发展的进程。加工贸易、外包、中间品贸易等产品内国际分工形式的出现,对原有针对“最终品”的贸易理论提出挑战。作为最大的发展中国家,中国主要通过接包、加工贸易参与到产品内国际分工中,新的贸易形式影响到中国产业发展的各个方面。
本文首先从理论上探讨产品内国际分工对接包国生产率影响的作用机制,并用多种指标度量中国参与产品内国际分工程度,然后对中国34个行业1994-2007年数据进行实证检验。使用垂直专业化率、进口中间投入占总产值比例、进口中间投入占总消费比例三种方式度量我国参与产品内国际分工程度,建立行业出口复杂度指标度量中国出口技术水平,用从事科技活动人员占总就业人数比重表示就业技能结构。采用涵盖了农业、工业、服务业,更长时间段的面板数据分析参与产品内国际分工对中国产业生产率、出口技术水平、就业等影响。得到主要结论有：
第一,产品内国际分工对接包国产生影响的传导机制是：产品内国际分工深化——贸易条件改变——技术人员占比(要素禀赋结构)变化——技术水平调整——产业发展。即当贸易条件不发生改变时(阶段一),参与产品内国际分工能持续提高生产率。贸易条件改变(阶段二),贸易条件改善时,生产率增长减缓；而贸易条件恶化时,生产率增长为正。贸易条件改变后,会带来一国的要素禀赋条件的变化。长期技术内生(阶段三),产品内国际分工使得接包国从事技术人员比重低于世界平均水平,国内要素密集程度会发生变化,导致一国技术水平调整,接包国生产率出现下降态势。因此,接包国的生产率总体会呈现出“上升——下降——上升——下降”的M型的周期性变化。
第二,1994-2007年间各行业参与产品内国际分工有利于行业生产率的提高。中国参与产品内国际分工程度呈现出先降低后上升的趋势,产品内国际分工显著促进生产率的提高,主要通过与资本投入的交互作用体现。
第三,中国出口技术水平都是快速提升的,不同类型的产品内国际分工对出口产业技术水平的作用并不一致。科技活动人员增长和外资企业产值占工业总产值比重的增加能显著提升出口产业技术水平,资本密集程度的提高反而不利于出口技术水平的提升。垂直专业化的增加显著提升了出口产业技术水平,进口中间投入占总产出比重和进口中间投入占总消费比重增长并对出口技术水平的作用不显著。
第四,产品内国际分工对我国就业不存在直接的拉动作用。产品内国际分工带来的进口替代效应和生产率效应减少的就业,大于拉动就业的规模效应。但产品内国际分工带来产出规模扩大,产品内国际分工与产出增长的交叉效应对就业影响为正。产品内国际分工长期并不利于企业科技活动人员占比的增长,不利于我国就业结构提升,企业研发经费内部支出的增加能显著提升科技活动人员占比。
本文的主要创新点有：(1)从发展中国家接包的角度,讨论产品内国际分工对产业发展的影响。(2)样本时间段更长,行业涵盖的范围更广。(3)对中国出口技术水平从行业角度重新度量。(4)考虑了产品内国际分工对就业技能结构影响。总之,我国产品内国际分工正处于第一阶段向第二阶段转变,现阶段产品内国际分工仍能促进我国各行业生产效率的改进和出口技术水平的提升,但不利于我国要素禀赋结构向技能密集型转变。在这个过程中资本深化能提高行业产出,不利于出口技术水平提升和就业的改善；外资企业产出占比增加能提升出口技术水平；研究经费的投入能显著改善生产率、出口技术水平和就业格局。
With the development of economic globalization and informationization, intra-poduct specialization become the main form of international trade by taking importing and exporting intermediate products as the main feature. Different countries specialized in certain production links through outsourcing and sub-contracting. The trade pattern shows "fragmantation" and "slicing up the value added chain", which have accelerated the process of international industrial transfer and industrial development. Different with the developed countries, China participates in the international division mainly by undertaking outsourcing and processing trade.
The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the mechanism of intra-product specialization to developing countries' total factor productivity from the perspective of undertaking outsourcing countries, and examine the effects on productivity, export technical level and employment at the level of industry. The dissertation measures the degree of intra-product specialization of34industries in China during1994-2007via vertical specialization, imported inputs as share of gross output and imported inputs as share of total consumption. The dissertation also develops a new method of identifying the sophistication of exports by sector and investigates the contributing factors.
The mechanism is that intra-product specialization deepening brings the terms of trade changes, results the proportion of researchers (endowment structure) change, and then adjusts the technical level of developing countries, affects the industrial development finally. During the process, when the terms of trade has not changed, participate in the intra-product specialization can improve productivity; when the terms of trade changed and domestic factor intensity has not changed, the productivity growth slowing if terms of trade improved, and productivity growth accelerating if terms of trade deteriorate. In long term, technical level is endogenous and the factor intensity would shift to fewer researchers, the productivity will decline. Therefore the productivity of undertaking outsourcing countries will be the showing "up-down-up-down" M shape.
Secondly, the measurements find that China's participation in the intra-product specialization decreased fisrt and then increased. Using more long sections of panel data, the empirical analysis finds that the deepening of intra-product specialization improves the productivity, and the effect is mainly embodied by the interaction with the capital investment.
Thirdly, this dissertation also focus on China's export structure, whether measure by high-medium-low technology industry, the sophistication of exports or export unit value, China's export technology level has been rising steadily. The growth of R&D and foreign-invested enterprises are found to play important roles in generating the export competivieness. The improvement of capital intensive is found to be not conducive to export technology level. The roles of different types of intra-product specialization are inconsistent. Increases in vertical specialization significantly improve the export technology level, imported inputs as share of gross output and imported inputs as share of total consumption had no significant effect.
Finally, based on the theory and empirical aspects, this dissertation explores the effect of intra-product specialization on employment.The results showed that there is no direct role in stimulating employment. Import substitution effect and producitivity effect brought by intra-product specialization could reduce employment, and the scale effect could increase employment, but the net effect is negative in China. However, the role of interaction of intra-product specialization with output is positive, which can increase employment. Improvements in R&D expenditures appear to be the key in the country's evolving employment structure; intra-product specialization has nagetive effect on the growth of the proportion of scientific and technical labor.
The contributions of this disdertation are:(1) From the perspective of undertaking outsourcing countries to analyze the mechanism and the effects.(2) The data covers longer period and wider corsssection.(3) The dissertation develops a new method of identifying the sophistication of exports by sector.(4) This dissertation explores the effect of intra-product specialization on employment skill structure.The effects of intra-product specialization on productivity, export structure and the employment have confirmed that China is in a period of transition from the first stage to the second stage. The deepening of intra-product specialization will still promote industry productivity and export technology level in short term. Capital deepening can increase the output, deteriorate export structure and employment. The raise of the rate of foreign-invested enterprises can improve the export technology level. The increasing of R&D expenditures can significantly improve productivity, export technology level and employment structure.
本文首先从理论上探讨产品内国际分工对接包国生产率影响的作用机制,并用多种指标度量中国参与产品内国际分工程度,然后对中国34个行业1994-2007年数据进行实证检验。使用垂直专业化率、进口中间投入占总产值比例、进口中间投入占总消费比例三种方式度量我国参与产品内国际分工程度,建立行业出口复杂度指标度量中国出口技术水平,用从事科技活动人员占总就业人数比重表示就业技能结构。采用涵盖了农业、工业、服务业,更长时间段的面板数据分析参与产品内国际分工对中国产业生产率、出口技术水平、就业等影响。得到主要结论有：
第一,产品内国际分工对接包国产生影响的传导机制是：产品内国际分工深化——贸易条件改变——技术人员占比(要素禀赋结构)变化——技术水平调整——产业发展。即当贸易条件不发生改变时(阶段一),参与产品内国际分工能持续提高生产率。贸易条件改变(阶段二),贸易条件改善时,生产率增长减缓；而贸易条件恶化时,生产率增长为正。贸易条件改变后,会带来一国的要素禀赋条件的变化。长期技术内生(阶段三),产品内国际分工使得接包国从事技术人员比重低于世界平均水平,国内要素密集程度会发生变化,导致一国技术水平调整,接包国生产率出现下降态势。因此,接包国的生产率总体会呈现出“上升——下降——上升——下降”的M型的周期性变化。
第二,1994-2007年间各行业参与产品内国际分工有利于行业生产率的提高。中国参与产品内国际分工程度呈现出先降低后上升的趋势,产品内国际分工显著促进生产率的提高,主要通过与资本投入的交互作用体现。
第三,中国出口技术水平都是快速提升的,不同类型的产品内国际分工对出口产业技术水平的作用并不一致。科技活动人员增长和外资企业产值占工业总产值比重的增加能显著提升出口产业技术水平,资本密集程度的提高反而不利于出口技术水平的提升。垂直专业化的增加显著提升了出口产业技术水平,进口中间投入占总产出比重和进口中间投入占总消费比重增长并对出口技术水平的作用不显著。
第四,产品内国际分工对我国就业不存在直接的拉动作用。产品内国际分工带来的进口替代效应和生产率效应减少的就业,大于拉动就业的规模效应。但产品内国际分工带来产出规模扩大,产品内国际分工与产出增长的交叉效应对就业影响为正。产品内国际分工长期并不利于企业科技活动人员占比的增长,不利于我国就业结构提升,企业研发经费内部支出的增加能显著提升科技活动人员占比。
本文的主要创新点有：(1)从发展中国家接包的角度,讨论产品内国际分工对产业发展的影响。(2)样本时间段更长,行业涵盖的范围更广。(3)对中国出口技术水平从行业角度重新度量。(4)考虑了产品内国际分工对就业技能结构影响。总之,我国产品内国际分工正处于第一阶段向第二阶段转变,现阶段产品内国际分工仍能促进我国各行业生产效率的改进和出口技术水平的提升,但不利于我国要素禀赋结构向技能密集型转变。在这个过程中资本深化能提高行业产出,不利于出口技术水平提升和就业的改善；外资企业产出占比增加能提升出口技术水平；研究经费的投入能显著改善生产率、出口技术水平和就业格局。
With the development of economic globalization and informationization, intra-poduct specialization become the main form of international trade by taking importing and exporting intermediate products as the main feature. Different countries specialized in certain production links through outsourcing and sub-contracting. The trade pattern shows "fragmantation" and "slicing up the value added chain", which have accelerated the process of international industrial transfer and industrial development. Different with the developed countries, China participates in the international division mainly by undertaking outsourcing and processing trade.
The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the mechanism of intra-product specialization to developing countries' total factor productivity from the perspective of undertaking outsourcing countries, and examine the effects on productivity, export technical level and employment at the level of industry. The dissertation measures the degree of intra-product specialization of34industries in China during1994-2007via vertical specialization, imported inputs as share of gross output and imported inputs as share of total consumption. The dissertation also develops a new method of identifying the sophistication of exports by sector and investigates the contributing factors.
The mechanism is that intra-product specialization deepening brings the terms of trade changes, results the proportion of researchers (endowment structure) change, and then adjusts the technical level of developing countries, affects the industrial development finally. During the process, when the terms of trade has not changed, participate in the intra-product specialization can improve productivity; when the terms of trade changed and domestic factor intensity has not changed, the productivity growth slowing if terms of trade improved, and productivity growth accelerating if terms of trade deteriorate. In long term, technical level is endogenous and the factor intensity would shift to fewer researchers, the productivity will decline. Therefore the productivity of undertaking outsourcing countries will be the showing "up-down-up-down" M shape.
Secondly, the measurements find that China's participation in the intra-product specialization decreased fisrt and then increased. Using more long sections of panel data, the empirical analysis finds that the deepening of intra-product specialization improves the productivity, and the effect is mainly embodied by the interaction with the capital investment.
Thirdly, this dissertation also focus on China's export structure, whether measure by high-medium-low technology industry, the sophistication of exports or export unit value, China's export technology level has been rising steadily. The growth of R&D and foreign-invested enterprises are found to play important roles in generating the export competivieness. The improvement of capital intensive is found to be not conducive to export technology level. The roles of different types of intra-product specialization are inconsistent. Increases in vertical specialization significantly improve the export technology level, imported inputs as share of gross output and imported inputs as share of total consumption had no significant effect.
Finally, based on the theory and empirical aspects, this dissertation explores the effect of intra-product specialization on employment.The results showed that there is no direct role in stimulating employment. Import substitution effect and producitivity effect brought by intra-product specialization could reduce employment, and the scale effect could increase employment, but the net effect is negative in China. However, the role of interaction of intra-product specialization with output is positive, which can increase employment. Improvements in R&D expenditures appear to be the key in the country's evolving employment structure; intra-product specialization has nagetive effect on the growth of the proportion of scientific and technical labor.
The contributions of this disdertation are:(1) From the perspective of undertaking outsourcing countries to analyze the mechanism and the effects.(2) The data covers longer period and wider corsssection.(3) The dissertation develops a new method of identifying the sophistication of exports by sector.(4) This dissertation explores the effect of intra-product specialization on employment skill structure.The effects of intra-product specialization on productivity, export structure and the employment have confirmed that China is in a period of transition from the first stage to the second stage. The deepening of intra-product specialization will still promote industry productivity and export technology level in short term. Capital deepening can increase the output, deteriorate export structure and employment. The raise of the rate of foreign-invested enterprises can improve the export technology level. The increasing of R&D expenditures can significantly improve productivity, export technology level and employment structure.
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