山东省政府外债风险管理研究
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摘要
实践表明，政府外债的使用有效地缓解了山东省建设资金不足的局面，极大地促进了全省经济和社会事业的发展。同时，政府外债的双重性决定了，山东省政府外债风险是客观存在的，并以多种形式日益显现。它与财政风险密切相关，是导致地方财政风险的重要因素，严重时就会危及国家经济和社会稳定。但是，目前山东的政府外债风险管理体系并不完善，还存在着一些问题，主要有：一是外债规模规划和控制体制不完善；二是国内配套条件不完备；三是贷款项目运作不规范；四是债务拖欠严重。这些问题如不及时解决，就会使外债风险在失控状态下愈演愈烈，债务危机发生机率越来越大。因此，必须充分认识山东政府外债的风险性，加强对外债风险的管理和研究，制定有效措施加以防范化解。
全文立足于山东省政府外债实际情况，运用发展经济学、财政学和国际金融有关理论和知识，通过大量的实际案例和数据对比分析，对山东省政府外债风险管理重点研究了以下四个方面的内容，并努力寻求有所创新。一是首次归纳并重点分析了山东省政府外债风险的5种主要表现形式，即：外债规模风险、外债结构风险、汇率风险、利率风险、采购风险。二是首次系统分析了山东省政府外债风险管理工作存在的主要问题，包括外债利用缺乏统一规划，监管体制不顺，贷款违规使用，历史积欠沉重等。三是在目前山东省政府外债风险管理体系尚不完善的情况下，提出要积极、合理、有效利用政府外债，建立外债风险监控体系，强化各项管理措施等全面、有效的风险管理对策。如：对策中提出的“将政府外债纳入财政预算管理”，目前财政学尚未研究涉及，它将是今后财政体制改革的方向。四是在目前学术界和实际工作部门均未研究和建立地方政府外债衡量和监测指标体系的情况下，尝试建立了一套较科学适用的山东省地方政府外债监控评价指标体系。该体系包括评价指标及评价标准、指标分析及指标考核、奖惩制度三部分，设置了“宏观经济指标”、“名义外债指标”、“外债偿还指标”、“新上项目财务评价指标”四大类指标，有关参考值标准将在实践中继续检验调整。
本文初次探讨研究了山东省政府外债的风险性及管理对策，对于全面认识政府外债风险，有效防范化解债务危机具有重要的理论和现实意义。
Practice shows that government foreign loan plays an important role in accelerating the development of economics and society. At the same time, the dual nature of government foreign loan decides the risk of government foreign loan is objectively existent and shows with various forms. It is related closely to financial risk, and it is the important factor that causes local financial risk, seriously, it will be dangerous to national economy and social stability. But now, the government risk management system of foreign loan of Shandong province is not perfect, including: (1)the scale of foreign loan program and control system is imperfect; (2)domestic supplemental condition is incomplete;(3)loan project running is non-standard;(4)loan default is serious . If these problems are not solved in time, these can make the risk of foreign loan out of control and increase the rate of debt crisis. Therefore we must realize the risk of foreign loan, reinforce the research and management and establish effective measures t
o dissolve it.
This paper emphasizes four aspects of Shandong foreign loan risk management which is based on the actual case of exceptional quantity of the existing local foundation of the government risk management research and practice of foreign loan with datas, and tries to make some new creation. Firstly, sums up and analyses originally 5 kinds of forms of the risk of foreign loan of Shandong province : the scale of foreign loan risk, the structural risk of foreign loan, the risk of exchange rate, the risk of interest rate and buying risk. Secondly, analyses systematically the main problems in Shandong foreign loan risk management, including no plan as a whole in using foreign loans, supervising system is imperfect, using loans illegally, heavy historical debts and so on. Thirdly, under the situation of lacking a perfect foreign loan risk management system in Shandong province, advocates to use government foreign loans actively and effectively, establish supervising system of foreign loan, strengthen some countermeasu
res, for instance, mentioned in the countermeasures, "bring government foreign loans within finance budget system", this will be a direction of finance system reform. Finally, under the situation of lacking supervising system both academically and practically, attempts to establish a set of supervising and evaluating system of Shandong local government foreign loan. This system includes evaluating index and evaluating standard, index analysis and index check-up, reward and punishment system; setup four kinds of indexes: "macroeconomic index", "nominal foreign loan index", "foreign loan payment index", "financial affairs evaluating index of new project". Some of these standards will be re-adjusted in practice.
This paper originally investigates the foreign loan risk and countermeasures of Shandong province, it's important to realize government foreign loan risk as a whole and prevent debt crisis both in theory and in reality.
全文立足于山东省政府外债实际情况，运用发展经济学、财政学和国际金融有关理论和知识，通过大量的实际案例和数据对比分析，对山东省政府外债风险管理重点研究了以下四个方面的内容，并努力寻求有所创新。一是首次归纳并重点分析了山东省政府外债风险的5种主要表现形式，即：外债规模风险、外债结构风险、汇率风险、利率风险、采购风险。二是首次系统分析了山东省政府外债风险管理工作存在的主要问题，包括外债利用缺乏统一规划，监管体制不顺，贷款违规使用，历史积欠沉重等。三是在目前山东省政府外债风险管理体系尚不完善的情况下，提出要积极、合理、有效利用政府外债，建立外债风险监控体系，强化各项管理措施等全面、有效的风险管理对策。如：对策中提出的“将政府外债纳入财政预算管理”，目前财政学尚未研究涉及，它将是今后财政体制改革的方向。四是在目前学术界和实际工作部门均未研究和建立地方政府外债衡量和监测指标体系的情况下，尝试建立了一套较科学适用的山东省地方政府外债监控评价指标体系。该体系包括评价指标及评价标准、指标分析及指标考核、奖惩制度三部分，设置了“宏观经济指标”、“名义外债指标”、“外债偿还指标”、“新上项目财务评价指标”四大类指标，有关参考值标准将在实践中继续检验调整。
本文初次探讨研究了山东省政府外债的风险性及管理对策，对于全面认识政府外债风险，有效防范化解债务危机具有重要的理论和现实意义。
Practice shows that government foreign loan plays an important role in accelerating the development of economics and society. At the same time, the dual nature of government foreign loan decides the risk of government foreign loan is objectively existent and shows with various forms. It is related closely to financial risk, and it is the important factor that causes local financial risk, seriously, it will be dangerous to national economy and social stability. But now, the government risk management system of foreign loan of Shandong province is not perfect, including: (1)the scale of foreign loan program and control system is imperfect; (2)domestic supplemental condition is incomplete;(3)loan project running is non-standard;(4)loan default is serious . If these problems are not solved in time, these can make the risk of foreign loan out of control and increase the rate of debt crisis. Therefore we must realize the risk of foreign loan, reinforce the research and management and establish effective measures t
o dissolve it.
This paper emphasizes four aspects of Shandong foreign loan risk management which is based on the actual case of exceptional quantity of the existing local foundation of the government risk management research and practice of foreign loan with datas, and tries to make some new creation. Firstly, sums up and analyses originally 5 kinds of forms of the risk of foreign loan of Shandong province : the scale of foreign loan risk, the structural risk of foreign loan, the risk of exchange rate, the risk of interest rate and buying risk. Secondly, analyses systematically the main problems in Shandong foreign loan risk management, including no plan as a whole in using foreign loans, supervising system is imperfect, using loans illegally, heavy historical debts and so on. Thirdly, under the situation of lacking a perfect foreign loan risk management system in Shandong province, advocates to use government foreign loans actively and effectively, establish supervising system of foreign loan, strengthen some countermeasu
res, for instance, mentioned in the countermeasures, "bring government foreign loans within finance budget system", this will be a direction of finance system reform. Finally, under the situation of lacking supervising system both academically and practically, attempts to establish a set of supervising and evaluating system of Shandong local government foreign loan. This system includes evaluating index and evaluating standard, index analysis and index check-up, reward and punishment system; setup four kinds of indexes: "macroeconomic index", "nominal foreign loan index", "foreign loan payment index", "financial affairs evaluating index of new project". Some of these standards will be re-adjusted in practice.
This paper originally investigates the foreign loan risk and countermeasures of Shandong province, it's important to realize government foreign loan risk as a whole and prevent debt crisis both in theory and in reality.
引文
[1] Dinh Hinh T.. Fiscal Solvencyand Sustainability in Economic Management, Policy Research Working Paper No. 2213, the World Bank, 1999.
[2] Polackova Hana.. Contingent Government Liabilities: A Hidden Risk for Fiscal Stability, Policy Research Working Paper, the World Bank, 1998.
[3] Mishkin Frederic.. Lessons from Asia Crisis, Journal of International Money and Finance vol. 18, No. 4, 1999: 709—723.
[4] World Bank. Global Development Finance. 1999.
[5] The World Bank production, 1999. 09
[6] 李岚清．．中国利用外资基础知识[M]．北京：中共中央党校出版社、中国对外经济贸易出版社，1995：13-54．
[7] 卢洪友．．公共财政学[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2002：263-298．
[8] 吴晓灵．．中国外汇管理[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2001：453-501．
[9] 李扬，王松奇．．中国金融理论前沿[M] 社会科学文献出版社，2000：172-180．
[10] 陶文达．．发展经济学[M]．四川：四川人民出版社，1996：261-291．
[11] 隆武华．．外债两重性——引擎?桎梏?[M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社 2001．3
[12] 陈景跃．．政府债务对于国民经济的作用与影响[J]，中国经济体制改革研究，1999(1)．
[13] 刘迎秋．．论中国现阶段的赤字率和债务率及其警戒线[J]．经济研究，2001(8)．
[14] 张春霖．．如何评估我国政府债务的可持续性[J]．经济研究，2001(2)．
[15] 刘旭红．．借用国外贷款管理与实务[M]．北京：中国计划出版社，2001．
[16] 童本立．．正确评价中国财政赤字的特殊风险[J]．财政研究，2002(1)．
[17] 程怀月，王昌栋．．国际金融[M] 杭州：浙江大学出版社，1999：59-78．
[18] 杨大楷．．国债风险管理[M]．上海：上海财大出版社，2001．
[19] 姚绍学．．地方财政风险问题研究[J]．财政研究，2002(1)．
[20] 高志立．．财政风险及其构成内容的理论分析[J]．财政研究，2002(2)．
[21] 俞乔．．亚洲金融危机与我国汇率政策[J]．经济研究，1998(10)．
[22] 杨圣明．．东南亚金融危机的深层透视[J]．财贸经济，1998(10)．
[23] 陈松林．．金融风险监测与预警研究[J]．经济科学，1997(3)．
[24] 朱大兴．．关于建立地方政府债务预算的构想[J]．财政研究，2001(12)．
[25] 高盛(Goldman Sachs)亚洲有限责任公司年报[R]．
[26] 世界银行年报[R]．
[27] 财政年鉴[M]．
1、http://www.worldbank.org.cn
2、http://www.mof.gov.cn
[2] Polackova Hana.. Contingent Government Liabilities: A Hidden Risk for Fiscal Stability, Policy Research Working Paper, the World Bank, 1998.
[3] Mishkin Frederic.. Lessons from Asia Crisis, Journal of International Money and Finance vol. 18, No. 4, 1999: 709—723.
[4] World Bank. Global Development Finance. 1999.
[5] The World Bank production, 1999. 09
[6] 李岚清．．中国利用外资基础知识[M]．北京：中共中央党校出版社、中国对外经济贸易出版社，1995：13-54．
[7] 卢洪友．．公共财政学[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2002：263-298．
[8] 吴晓灵．．中国外汇管理[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2001：453-501．
[9] 李扬，王松奇．．中国金融理论前沿[M] 社会科学文献出版社，2000：172-180．
[10] 陶文达．．发展经济学[M]．四川：四川人民出版社，1996：261-291．
[11] 隆武华．．外债两重性——引擎?桎梏?[M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社 2001．3
[12] 陈景跃．．政府债务对于国民经济的作用与影响[J]，中国经济体制改革研究，1999(1)．
[13] 刘迎秋．．论中国现阶段的赤字率和债务率及其警戒线[J]．经济研究，2001(8)．
[14] 张春霖．．如何评估我国政府债务的可持续性[J]．经济研究，2001(2)．
[15] 刘旭红．．借用国外贷款管理与实务[M]．北京：中国计划出版社，2001．
[16] 童本立．．正确评价中国财政赤字的特殊风险[J]．财政研究，2002(1)．
[17] 程怀月，王昌栋．．国际金融[M] 杭州：浙江大学出版社，1999：59-78．
[18] 杨大楷．．国债风险管理[M]．上海：上海财大出版社，2001．
[19] 姚绍学．．地方财政风险问题研究[J]．财政研究，2002(1)．
[20] 高志立．．财政风险及其构成内容的理论分析[J]．财政研究，2002(2)．
[21] 俞乔．．亚洲金融危机与我国汇率政策[J]．经济研究，1998(10)．
[22] 杨圣明．．东南亚金融危机的深层透视[J]．财贸经济，1998(10)．
[23] 陈松林．．金融风险监测与预警研究[J]．经济科学，1997(3)．
[24] 朱大兴．．关于建立地方政府债务预算的构想[J]．财政研究，2001(12)．
[25] 高盛(Goldman Sachs)亚洲有限责任公司年报[R]．
[26] 世界银行年报[R]．
[27] 财政年鉴[M]．
1、http://www.worldbank.org.cn
2、http://www.mof.gov.cn