城市化进程中农村转移劳动力的配置结构与配置效率研究
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摘要
农村劳动力的转移是伴随着我国工业化、城市化的进程而出现的,并由此产生了“农民工”这样一个特殊的群体。然而与此同时,农村劳动力的转移也带来了一系列问题,如在城市必然带来城市管理、市民化、城市化等诸多问题,在农村也将出现土地流转、农业资源再分配以及农业产业化等现象。这些问题对我国城乡经济以及整个社会经济发展都有着直接影响,并引起了人们的普遍关注。从微观层面来看,农村劳动力转移后出现的农民工问题比较突出地体现在就业、教育、社会及权益保障、公共服务以及城市融入等诸多方面。这些问题关系到农民工群体的切身利益和社会的和谐稳定,需要我们着力解决。而从宏观层面来看,农村劳动力的转移是市场经济发展的必然结果,是我国实现工业化、城市化的客观需要。农村转移劳动力的配置状况直接影响着社会经济的发展进程。因此实现农村劳动力的合理流动和高效配置就显得尤为重要。此外,农村劳动力转移也是一种综合性的社会现象,涉及社会、经济、人口、政治等多个方面。我们只有深入认识和把握好农村劳动力转移的根源、本质、现实状况以及发展趋势,才能科学有效地解决农村转移劳动力的配置问题,才能顺应趋势和推动社会经济快速发展。
基于我国城市化背景,本论文着眼于农村转移劳动力的配置结构与配置效率问题,首先通过追溯我国城市化进程中农村劳动力转移的历史,对我国农村劳动力转移的动因、发展阶段、历史作用及其现状进行归纳分析,找出我国农村劳动力转移的基本规律和发展趋势；接下来重点分析农村转移劳动力的地域配置和产业配置情况,并运用经济学方法对农村转移劳动力的配置效率进行分析和评价；然后针对存在的问题,研究提高我国农村转移劳动力配置效率的有效途径；最后,基于上述研究分析,回顾我国农村劳动力转移的有关政策措施,结合国外相关经验和研究成果,为促进我国农村劳动力转移和城乡经济社会发展提出政策思路和若干建议。通过研究,论文主要得到以下结论：
(1)伴随着我国城市化的阶段性发展,我国劳动力转移也存在较为明显的阶段差异。我国城市化加快始于新中国成立之后,大体可以分为三个阶段：1949-1960年为快速发展期,截至1960年,我国城镇人口数达到13073万人,在1949年基础上增长了1.268倍,年均增速高达7.727%；1960-1978年为蛰伏期,1978年我国城镇人口数量为17245万,相比1960年,18年间仅仅增长了0.319倍；1978-2009年为反弹回升期,截至2009年,我国城镇人口已达62186万人,相比于1978年增长了2.606倍,年均增速达4.224%。我国农村劳动力转移则主要集中在改革开放以后,大致可以分为四个阶段：1978-1983年为起步阶段,区域控制较强,离土不离乡；1984-1991年为快速发展阶段,区域限制减弱,但后期遭遇瓶颈；1992年-2000年是以外出务工为主,规模迅速壮大；2001年至今则是政府鼓励支持,关注农民工权益。
(2)我国农村劳动力转移的驱动因素可分解为四个方面,即结构因素、经济因素、效率因素和人口因素。结构因素对农村劳动力转移数量有较强的推动作用,具体来讲,就是二、三产业产值与农业产值之间的比值越大,农村劳动力转移数量就越多。1991年,我国农业产值还占国内总值的24.5%,到2009年,仅维持在10%左右。相比于基期1991年,1992-2009年结构因素累积推动了165.52%(14777.98万人)的农村劳动力转移。农业经济发展水平的提高也有助于农村劳动力转移,具体表现形式是农村居民人均农业GDP上升,农村劳动力转移量增加。效率因素对我国农村劳动力转移有较强的抑制作用,具体表现形式为二、三产业生产效率提高,单位产值所需劳动力减少,作为城市劳动力自身供给不足的补充者,农村转移劳动力的需求相应减少。人口因素对农村劳动力转移也具有一定抑制作用,具体表现形式为农村人口减少,农村劳动力转移数量减少。
(3)我国不同地区农村从业劳动力比重存在差异,因而不同地区农村转移劳动力产业配置情况也各具特点。就不同地区农村从业劳动力比重差异而言,一是两级差异大,农村从业劳动力比重最低的上海仅为20.04%,而比重最高的贵州却高达87.53%；二是“阶梯型”分布明显,不同阶梯差异明显,比重最高的十个省份介于71%与88%之间,为第三级阶梯,居中的十一个省份比重介于57.5%与71.5%之间,为第二阶梯,比重最低的省份介于20%与57.5%之间,为第一阶梯。就不同地区农村转移劳动力产业配置情况而言,我国26个省、市、自治区(未考虑北京、天津、重庆、山东、贵州五地)中,有13个省份的农村转移劳动力以从事第二产业为主,而剩下13个省份的农村转移劳动力则以从事第三产业为主。
(4)我国农村劳动力转移配置效率仍然不高,具体表现在以下方面：一是农村转移劳动力的供给大于需求,并且农村转移劳动力的供给质量不高,不能形成有效的供给；二是目前社会对农村转移劳动力的需求主要集中在劳动密集型企业,无法满足我国增长模式转变的要求；三是农村劳动力的转移存在较大盲目性,缺乏合理引导和有序安排：四是农村劳动力转移过程中的限制因素仍很多,制约了农村劳动力的顺利转移。
(5)关于促进我国农村劳动力转移,主要提出以下政策建议：一是建立健全农村剩余劳动力转移战略政策规划,二是建立和完善户籍制度体系,三是建立和完善农村土地流转机制,四是建立和完善社会化服务体系,五是建立和完善人力资本开发体系。
本文的可能创新之处在于：
(1)本研究着眼于我国城市化进程,研究分析了农村劳动力转移与城市化之间的相互作用关系,提出加快城市化发展,尤其是中小城镇发展是今后实现我国农村剩余劳动力转移的主要途径。
(2)本研究把农村劳动力转移作为一个综合性问题,积极尝试从统筹城乡社会经济协调发展的角度,对农村转移劳动力的地域和行业配置状况进行全面系统地分析,得出了一系列科学的结论。
(3)本研究融合了经济学、社会学、管理学、人口学、统计学等多学科的研究思路和方法。其中运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测了我国农村劳动力未来转移趋势；借鉴碳排放分解公式,运用LMDI方法对我国农村劳动力转移的影响因素进行了分解研究等。同时重视开展社会调查和实证研究,能够较好地保证相关定量分析和预测结果的准确性和有效性。
(4)本研究通过总结分析国外农村劳动力转移的理论和成功经验,揭示了农村劳动力转移的基本规律,在此基础上就我国农村劳动力转移的路径选择、提高农村劳动力转移配置效率等问题提出了解决途径。
Along with China's industrialization and urbanization, thousands of surplus rural labor has been moving to urban areas, resulting in such a special group as "migrant workers". In the meantime, however, the transfer of rural labor force has also brought a series of problems. The city will have to face the problems of urban management, public, and urbanization. And in rural, it will arouse land circulation, the redistribution of agricultural resources and agricultural industrialization phenomenon. Widespread concern for these issues has been aroused for the direct impact on the urban and rural economy and even on the social and economic development. From the micro level, the problem of migrant workers after the transfer is prominently reflected in many aspects, such as employment, education, social and rights protection, public services, and integration into the cities ect., which needs our great efforts to resolve, for its relationship to the vital interests of migrant workers groups and social harmony and stability. While from a macro perspective, the transfer of rural labor is an inevitable result of the development of market economy and the objective needs to achieve industrialization and urbanization, whose configuration status directly impacts the socio-economic development process. Therefore, to achieve the rational flow and efficient allocation of the rural labor force is particularly important. In addition, the transfer of rural labor is a comprehensive social phenomenon, involving such aspects as the social, economic, demographic, political and others. Only with a deep understanding and a good grasp of the root, nature, current situation and development trend of the transfer, can we scientifically and effectively deal with the configuration of it, and conform with the trend to promote the socio-economic development.
This paper focus on the configuration structure and efficiency of the transfer of rural labor based on the background of China's urbanization,. First, by reviewing the history of the rural labor transfer in China's urbanization process, we will summary and analyze the motivation, stage of development, the historical role and its status quo to identify the basic rules and the development trend. Next, we will focus on the analysis of the geographical configuration and industrial configuration of it and conduct econometric methods in the analysis and evaluation of the allocation efficiency. Then, for the problems, we will examine effective ways to improve the allocation efficiency for the above problems. Finally, we will put forward some policy ideas and recommendations based on the above analysis, reviewing China's relevant policies and measures of it and combining with the related foreign experience and research, to promote the transfer and urban and rural economic and social development. Through the research, we draw the following conclusions:
(1)Urbanization in China presents a phased development, so does the labor transfer. The development of China's urbanization accelerated after the founding of New China, which can be roughly divided into three stages:Rapid development period:1949-1960. as of1960, the urban population reached13,073million with an increase of1.268times compared with1949and an average annual growth rate up to7.727%; Dormant period:1960-1978, the number of China's urban population was172.45million in1978.And it increased by only0.319-fold in18years compared to1960; Recovery period:1978-2009.The urban population reached62,186million by2009, which increased2.606times compared to1978, with an average annual growth rate of4.224%. While transfer of rural labor in China is mainly occurred after the reform and opening up, which can be grouped into four stages. The initial stage:1978-1983. The main feature was the shift from agriculture to non-agricultural industries in rural areas for the strong regional control; The rapid development stage:1984-1991.The transfer grew rapidly for the weaken regional restrictions, but met bottlenecks in the latter; From1992to2000, the migrant scale rapidly increased; Since2001, the Government began to encourage and support the labor transfer and concern the rights of migrant workers.
(2) The drivers of China's rural labor force transfer can be decomposed into four aspects, namely, structural factors, economic factors, efficiency factors and demographic factors. Structural factors play a stronger role in promoting the the rural labor force transfer number, specifically, the greater the ratio between the output value of agricultural output of the secondary and tertiary industries, the greater the number of transfer of rural labor. In1991, China's agricultural output accounted for24.5%of the total value of domestic,2009, lasted only about10%. Compared to the base in1991,1992-2009structure factor accumulation drives a165.52%(147779800) of the transfer of rural labor force. Raising the level of development of agricultural economy also contribute to the transfer of rural labor, the specific forms rural residents per capita agricultural GDP increased, the transfer of rural labor increased. Efficiency factor was strongly inhibited by China's rural labor force transfer; the specific form of the production efficiency of the secondary and tertiary industries, per unit of output required a labor force, as the urban labor supply less than complement, the transfer of rural labor demand corresponding reduction. Demographic factors on the transfer of rural labor force also has certain inhibition, concrete manifestation for rural population decrease, and the number of the transfer of rural labor force reduce.
(3)In different regions of our country rural employed labors force proportion between different areas, so the rural labor industry configuration is also have their own characteristics. Differences in different parts of rural industry labor force proportion, the two level differences is big, rural employed labors force proportion the lowest Shanghai is only20.04%, and the highest proportion of Guizhou is high up to87.53%Second, the" ladder" distribution significantly, different step difference is apparent, the highest proportion of the ten provinces of between71%and88%, the third grade ladder, the middle of the eleven provinces of the proportion between57.5%and71.5%, as the second step, the lowest proportion of provinces between20%and57.5%, third step. Different regions of rural labors force transfer industry configuration, China's26provinces, city, autonomous region (not to consider Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shandong, Guizhou five), there are13provinces of the transfer of rural labor in second industries, while the remainingl3provinces in the transfer of rural labor in the tertiary industry mainly.
(4)China's rural labor force transfer of allocate efficiency is still not high, speci-fically in the following areas:First, the transfer of rural labor supply exceeds demand, and the quality of the transfer of rural labor supply is not high, can not form an effective supply;Second, the social demand for the transfer of rural labor mainly in labor-intensive enterprises, unable to meet the changing needs of our growth model; Third, the transfer of rural labor force there is a larger blindness, lack of a reasonable guide and orderly arrangement; The fourth is the limiting factor is still in the process of transfer of rural labor, which restricts the smooth transfer of rural labor.
(5)On the promotion of the transfer of rural labor in China, mainly offer proposal of the following policy:One is to establish the transfer of strategic policy planning to improve the rural surplus labor, the second is to establish and perfect the system of household registration systemic to establish and improve the rural land transfer mechanism is to establish and improve the social service system is to est-ablish and improve the human capital development system.
In this paper, the possibility of innovation is:
(1)This study focuses on our country's city process, research and analysis of the interaction between the transfer of rural labor force and the city proposed to speed up the city development, especially the development of small towns is the main way to achieve the transfer of rural surplus labor force in china.
(2)This study as a comprehensive problem of rural labor transfer, positiveattempts from the coordinated development of urban and rural social and economic point of view, systematically analysis of the allocation of the transfer of rural labor force from region to region and industry, obtained a series of scientific conclusion.
(3) This study combines economics, sociology, management science, demography, statistics and other multidisciplinary research ideas and methods. The application of grey forecasting model GM (1,1) to forecast the future trend of transfer of rural labor force; reference carbon emissionsdecomposition formula, using LMDI method of decomposition of the research on the influence factors of rural labor transfer in china. At the same time,pay great attention to the development of social investigation and empirical research, which can ensure the accuracy of quantitative analysis andprediction results and effectiveness.
(4)In this study, through the analysis of theory and the successful experiences of overseas rural labor force shift, the paper reveals the basic laws of the transfer of rural labor force, path selection, and on the basis of China's rural labor force transfer to improve the transfer of rural labor force allocation efficiency are proposed to solve the problem that way.
基于我国城市化背景,本论文着眼于农村转移劳动力的配置结构与配置效率问题,首先通过追溯我国城市化进程中农村劳动力转移的历史,对我国农村劳动力转移的动因、发展阶段、历史作用及其现状进行归纳分析,找出我国农村劳动力转移的基本规律和发展趋势；接下来重点分析农村转移劳动力的地域配置和产业配置情况,并运用经济学方法对农村转移劳动力的配置效率进行分析和评价；然后针对存在的问题,研究提高我国农村转移劳动力配置效率的有效途径；最后,基于上述研究分析,回顾我国农村劳动力转移的有关政策措施,结合国外相关经验和研究成果,为促进我国农村劳动力转移和城乡经济社会发展提出政策思路和若干建议。通过研究,论文主要得到以下结论：
(1)伴随着我国城市化的阶段性发展,我国劳动力转移也存在较为明显的阶段差异。我国城市化加快始于新中国成立之后,大体可以分为三个阶段：1949-1960年为快速发展期,截至1960年,我国城镇人口数达到13073万人,在1949年基础上增长了1.268倍,年均增速高达7.727%；1960-1978年为蛰伏期,1978年我国城镇人口数量为17245万,相比1960年,18年间仅仅增长了0.319倍；1978-2009年为反弹回升期,截至2009年,我国城镇人口已达62186万人,相比于1978年增长了2.606倍,年均增速达4.224%。我国农村劳动力转移则主要集中在改革开放以后,大致可以分为四个阶段：1978-1983年为起步阶段,区域控制较强,离土不离乡；1984-1991年为快速发展阶段,区域限制减弱,但后期遭遇瓶颈；1992年-2000年是以外出务工为主,规模迅速壮大；2001年至今则是政府鼓励支持,关注农民工权益。
(2)我国农村劳动力转移的驱动因素可分解为四个方面,即结构因素、经济因素、效率因素和人口因素。结构因素对农村劳动力转移数量有较强的推动作用,具体来讲,就是二、三产业产值与农业产值之间的比值越大,农村劳动力转移数量就越多。1991年,我国农业产值还占国内总值的24.5%,到2009年,仅维持在10%左右。相比于基期1991年,1992-2009年结构因素累积推动了165.52%(14777.98万人)的农村劳动力转移。农业经济发展水平的提高也有助于农村劳动力转移,具体表现形式是农村居民人均农业GDP上升,农村劳动力转移量增加。效率因素对我国农村劳动力转移有较强的抑制作用,具体表现形式为二、三产业生产效率提高,单位产值所需劳动力减少,作为城市劳动力自身供给不足的补充者,农村转移劳动力的需求相应减少。人口因素对农村劳动力转移也具有一定抑制作用,具体表现形式为农村人口减少,农村劳动力转移数量减少。
(3)我国不同地区农村从业劳动力比重存在差异,因而不同地区农村转移劳动力产业配置情况也各具特点。就不同地区农村从业劳动力比重差异而言,一是两级差异大,农村从业劳动力比重最低的上海仅为20.04%,而比重最高的贵州却高达87.53%；二是“阶梯型”分布明显,不同阶梯差异明显,比重最高的十个省份介于71%与88%之间,为第三级阶梯,居中的十一个省份比重介于57.5%与71.5%之间,为第二阶梯,比重最低的省份介于20%与57.5%之间,为第一阶梯。就不同地区农村转移劳动力产业配置情况而言,我国26个省、市、自治区(未考虑北京、天津、重庆、山东、贵州五地)中,有13个省份的农村转移劳动力以从事第二产业为主,而剩下13个省份的农村转移劳动力则以从事第三产业为主。
(4)我国农村劳动力转移配置效率仍然不高,具体表现在以下方面：一是农村转移劳动力的供给大于需求,并且农村转移劳动力的供给质量不高,不能形成有效的供给；二是目前社会对农村转移劳动力的需求主要集中在劳动密集型企业,无法满足我国增长模式转变的要求；三是农村劳动力的转移存在较大盲目性,缺乏合理引导和有序安排：四是农村劳动力转移过程中的限制因素仍很多,制约了农村劳动力的顺利转移。
(5)关于促进我国农村劳动力转移,主要提出以下政策建议：一是建立健全农村剩余劳动力转移战略政策规划,二是建立和完善户籍制度体系,三是建立和完善农村土地流转机制,四是建立和完善社会化服务体系,五是建立和完善人力资本开发体系。
本文的可能创新之处在于：
(1)本研究着眼于我国城市化进程,研究分析了农村劳动力转移与城市化之间的相互作用关系,提出加快城市化发展,尤其是中小城镇发展是今后实现我国农村剩余劳动力转移的主要途径。
(2)本研究把农村劳动力转移作为一个综合性问题,积极尝试从统筹城乡社会经济协调发展的角度,对农村转移劳动力的地域和行业配置状况进行全面系统地分析,得出了一系列科学的结论。
(3)本研究融合了经济学、社会学、管理学、人口学、统计学等多学科的研究思路和方法。其中运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测了我国农村劳动力未来转移趋势；借鉴碳排放分解公式,运用LMDI方法对我国农村劳动力转移的影响因素进行了分解研究等。同时重视开展社会调查和实证研究,能够较好地保证相关定量分析和预测结果的准确性和有效性。
(4)本研究通过总结分析国外农村劳动力转移的理论和成功经验,揭示了农村劳动力转移的基本规律,在此基础上就我国农村劳动力转移的路径选择、提高农村劳动力转移配置效率等问题提出了解决途径。
Along with China's industrialization and urbanization, thousands of surplus rural labor has been moving to urban areas, resulting in such a special group as "migrant workers". In the meantime, however, the transfer of rural labor force has also brought a series of problems. The city will have to face the problems of urban management, public, and urbanization. And in rural, it will arouse land circulation, the redistribution of agricultural resources and agricultural industrialization phenomenon. Widespread concern for these issues has been aroused for the direct impact on the urban and rural economy and even on the social and economic development. From the micro level, the problem of migrant workers after the transfer is prominently reflected in many aspects, such as employment, education, social and rights protection, public services, and integration into the cities ect., which needs our great efforts to resolve, for its relationship to the vital interests of migrant workers groups and social harmony and stability. While from a macro perspective, the transfer of rural labor is an inevitable result of the development of market economy and the objective needs to achieve industrialization and urbanization, whose configuration status directly impacts the socio-economic development process. Therefore, to achieve the rational flow and efficient allocation of the rural labor force is particularly important. In addition, the transfer of rural labor is a comprehensive social phenomenon, involving such aspects as the social, economic, demographic, political and others. Only with a deep understanding and a good grasp of the root, nature, current situation and development trend of the transfer, can we scientifically and effectively deal with the configuration of it, and conform with the trend to promote the socio-economic development.
This paper focus on the configuration structure and efficiency of the transfer of rural labor based on the background of China's urbanization,. First, by reviewing the history of the rural labor transfer in China's urbanization process, we will summary and analyze the motivation, stage of development, the historical role and its status quo to identify the basic rules and the development trend. Next, we will focus on the analysis of the geographical configuration and industrial configuration of it and conduct econometric methods in the analysis and evaluation of the allocation efficiency. Then, for the problems, we will examine effective ways to improve the allocation efficiency for the above problems. Finally, we will put forward some policy ideas and recommendations based on the above analysis, reviewing China's relevant policies and measures of it and combining with the related foreign experience and research, to promote the transfer and urban and rural economic and social development. Through the research, we draw the following conclusions:
(1)Urbanization in China presents a phased development, so does the labor transfer. The development of China's urbanization accelerated after the founding of New China, which can be roughly divided into three stages:Rapid development period:1949-1960. as of1960, the urban population reached13,073million with an increase of1.268times compared with1949and an average annual growth rate up to7.727%; Dormant period:1960-1978, the number of China's urban population was172.45million in1978.And it increased by only0.319-fold in18years compared to1960; Recovery period:1978-2009.The urban population reached62,186million by2009, which increased2.606times compared to1978, with an average annual growth rate of4.224%. While transfer of rural labor in China is mainly occurred after the reform and opening up, which can be grouped into four stages. The initial stage:1978-1983. The main feature was the shift from agriculture to non-agricultural industries in rural areas for the strong regional control; The rapid development stage:1984-1991.The transfer grew rapidly for the weaken regional restrictions, but met bottlenecks in the latter; From1992to2000, the migrant scale rapidly increased; Since2001, the Government began to encourage and support the labor transfer and concern the rights of migrant workers.
(2) The drivers of China's rural labor force transfer can be decomposed into four aspects, namely, structural factors, economic factors, efficiency factors and demographic factors. Structural factors play a stronger role in promoting the the rural labor force transfer number, specifically, the greater the ratio between the output value of agricultural output of the secondary and tertiary industries, the greater the number of transfer of rural labor. In1991, China's agricultural output accounted for24.5%of the total value of domestic,2009, lasted only about10%. Compared to the base in1991,1992-2009structure factor accumulation drives a165.52%(147779800) of the transfer of rural labor force. Raising the level of development of agricultural economy also contribute to the transfer of rural labor, the specific forms rural residents per capita agricultural GDP increased, the transfer of rural labor increased. Efficiency factor was strongly inhibited by China's rural labor force transfer; the specific form of the production efficiency of the secondary and tertiary industries, per unit of output required a labor force, as the urban labor supply less than complement, the transfer of rural labor demand corresponding reduction. Demographic factors on the transfer of rural labor force also has certain inhibition, concrete manifestation for rural population decrease, and the number of the transfer of rural labor force reduce.
(3)In different regions of our country rural employed labors force proportion between different areas, so the rural labor industry configuration is also have their own characteristics. Differences in different parts of rural industry labor force proportion, the two level differences is big, rural employed labors force proportion the lowest Shanghai is only20.04%, and the highest proportion of Guizhou is high up to87.53%Second, the" ladder" distribution significantly, different step difference is apparent, the highest proportion of the ten provinces of between71%and88%, the third grade ladder, the middle of the eleven provinces of the proportion between57.5%and71.5%, as the second step, the lowest proportion of provinces between20%and57.5%, third step. Different regions of rural labors force transfer industry configuration, China's26provinces, city, autonomous region (not to consider Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shandong, Guizhou five), there are13provinces of the transfer of rural labor in second industries, while the remainingl3provinces in the transfer of rural labor in the tertiary industry mainly.
(4)China's rural labor force transfer of allocate efficiency is still not high, speci-fically in the following areas:First, the transfer of rural labor supply exceeds demand, and the quality of the transfer of rural labor supply is not high, can not form an effective supply;Second, the social demand for the transfer of rural labor mainly in labor-intensive enterprises, unable to meet the changing needs of our growth model; Third, the transfer of rural labor force there is a larger blindness, lack of a reasonable guide and orderly arrangement; The fourth is the limiting factor is still in the process of transfer of rural labor, which restricts the smooth transfer of rural labor.
(5)On the promotion of the transfer of rural labor in China, mainly offer proposal of the following policy:One is to establish the transfer of strategic policy planning to improve the rural surplus labor, the second is to establish and perfect the system of household registration systemic to establish and improve the rural land transfer mechanism is to establish and improve the social service system is to est-ablish and improve the human capital development system.
In this paper, the possibility of innovation is:
(1)This study focuses on our country's city process, research and analysis of the interaction between the transfer of rural labor force and the city proposed to speed up the city development, especially the development of small towns is the main way to achieve the transfer of rural surplus labor force in china.
(2)This study as a comprehensive problem of rural labor transfer, positiveattempts from the coordinated development of urban and rural social and economic point of view, systematically analysis of the allocation of the transfer of rural labor force from region to region and industry, obtained a series of scientific conclusion.
(3) This study combines economics, sociology, management science, demography, statistics and other multidisciplinary research ideas and methods. The application of grey forecasting model GM (1,1) to forecast the future trend of transfer of rural labor force; reference carbon emissionsdecomposition formula, using LMDI method of decomposition of the research on the influence factors of rural labor transfer in china. At the same time,pay great attention to the development of social investigation and empirical research, which can ensure the accuracy of quantitative analysis andprediction results and effectiveness.
(4)In this study, through the analysis of theory and the successful experiences of overseas rural labor force shift, the paper reveals the basic laws of the transfer of rural labor force, path selection, and on the basis of China's rural labor force transfer to improve the transfer of rural labor force allocation efficiency are proposed to solve the problem that way.
引文
① 国家统计局,《2012年全国农民工监测调查报告》
② 楼继伟,在第十二届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第三次会议上关于2012年中央决算的报告。
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