突发事件情境下消费者抢购行为形成机理研究
摘要
我们常用“天有不测风云”来形容突发事件。突如其来的事情时有发生,尤其是如今社会飞速发展,突发事件来得越发频繁。近几年来,突发事件第一时间就被曝光的例子屡见不鲜,同时相关的谣言也不胫而走,瞬间传遍大街小巷。各类商品的抢购风已出现多次,如非典期间抢购板蓝根、甲流期间抢购大蒜等等,学术界也越来越关注消费者的抢购行为。本文就是研究在突发事件情境下消费者的抢购行为,着手于消费者决策的心理过程,探寻消费者抢购行为的形成机理,最终为政府等相关机构提供突发事件情境下抢购行为的应急措施。
本研究选择刚发生不久的“抢盐事件”进行研究,通过对消费者进行深度访谈,我们发现恐慌情绪在消费者决策过程中具有相当关键的作用,直接影响到消费者的购买意向,从而成为研究模型的核心变量。同时,谣言是抢购行为发生的导火线,影响到消费者的恐慌情绪,但是媒体公信力在这一过程中起到了调节作用。参照群体和风险感知对恐慌情绪的影响也至关重要,过去类似情境下的经历也会对恐慌情绪产生影响。突发事件情境下的各种因素是通过情绪来影响购买意向的,这成为突发事件情境下消费者非理性决策与通常情况下的理性决策的重要区别。
本文的主要结论有：媒体公信力对谣言信任度与恐慌情绪之问的关系具有明显反向调节作用；商品稀缺性对恐慌情绪与购买意向之间的关系具有正向调节作用。在引起消费者恐慌情绪的因素中,参照群体影响占的比重最大,参照群体的情绪和行为是消费者决策的主要依据；过去行为后悔对恐慌情绪并没有显著影响。
本文的创新点在于在突发事件情境下消费者抢购行为的决策过程中引入了恐慌情绪这一中间变量,通过与理性决策行为模型进行对比,我们得出了“情绪”在决策过程中的作用成为理性决策与非理性决策的区别。
本文的最后提出了相应的管理意义,为政府等机构应对突发事件的抢购行为提供参考。媒体公信力是需要长期建设的,对于已经发生了的抢购行为,不能光靠媒体辟谣,而是应该主要提高商品供应量,降低商品稀缺性,才能抑制抢购行为。政府应该考虑如何提供最快速的供应系统来降低商品稀缺性,而不是一味批评民众的无知。
As a Chinese saying "Nothing is so certain as the unexpected", it's never stopped that unexpected events come suddenly. Rumors are associated with Emergency, and they can make people rush to do panic buying, such as:Radix Isatidis panic buying during the period of SARS. This article is the study of Consumer's Panic Buying Behavior in Emergency Context, focusing on the psychology of consumer decision process.
This study selects the event named "salt panic buying" to study, which happened recently. Through the depth interview of customers, we extract variables to establish research model. Using questionnaire survey, we verify the research model and hypothesis.
The main conclusions from this study are:MC(Media Credibility) has the negative moderating effect, and CS(Commodity Scarcity) has the positive effect. PE(Panic Emotion) has the central role of the consumer decision-making process, affecting consumers' purchase intention directly, which is different from TRA (Theory of Reasoned Action). At the same time, variables of RT(Rumor Trust), RGI(Reference Group Intention) and RP(Risk Perception) can also affect PE(Panic Emotion), and the influence from RGI is the most remarkable one. Surprisingly, PBR(Past Behavior Regest) doesn't have a obvious effect on PE.
The innovation of this study is that we introduce PE into the research model, through which, the essential difference between rational and irrational consumption is found.
At the end of this paper, we suggest the government should provide the most rapid supply system to reduce the commodity scarcity when panic buying emerges, but not to blame the ignorance of common people. At the same time, in order to improve ME, long-term construction is needed.
本研究选择刚发生不久的“抢盐事件”进行研究,通过对消费者进行深度访谈,我们发现恐慌情绪在消费者决策过程中具有相当关键的作用,直接影响到消费者的购买意向,从而成为研究模型的核心变量。同时,谣言是抢购行为发生的导火线,影响到消费者的恐慌情绪,但是媒体公信力在这一过程中起到了调节作用。参照群体和风险感知对恐慌情绪的影响也至关重要,过去类似情境下的经历也会对恐慌情绪产生影响。突发事件情境下的各种因素是通过情绪来影响购买意向的,这成为突发事件情境下消费者非理性决策与通常情况下的理性决策的重要区别。
本文的主要结论有：媒体公信力对谣言信任度与恐慌情绪之问的关系具有明显反向调节作用；商品稀缺性对恐慌情绪与购买意向之间的关系具有正向调节作用。在引起消费者恐慌情绪的因素中,参照群体影响占的比重最大,参照群体的情绪和行为是消费者决策的主要依据；过去行为后悔对恐慌情绪并没有显著影响。
本文的创新点在于在突发事件情境下消费者抢购行为的决策过程中引入了恐慌情绪这一中间变量,通过与理性决策行为模型进行对比,我们得出了“情绪”在决策过程中的作用成为理性决策与非理性决策的区别。
本文的最后提出了相应的管理意义,为政府等机构应对突发事件的抢购行为提供参考。媒体公信力是需要长期建设的,对于已经发生了的抢购行为,不能光靠媒体辟谣,而是应该主要提高商品供应量,降低商品稀缺性,才能抑制抢购行为。政府应该考虑如何提供最快速的供应系统来降低商品稀缺性,而不是一味批评民众的无知。
As a Chinese saying "Nothing is so certain as the unexpected", it's never stopped that unexpected events come suddenly. Rumors are associated with Emergency, and they can make people rush to do panic buying, such as:Radix Isatidis panic buying during the period of SARS. This article is the study of Consumer's Panic Buying Behavior in Emergency Context, focusing on the psychology of consumer decision process.
This study selects the event named "salt panic buying" to study, which happened recently. Through the depth interview of customers, we extract variables to establish research model. Using questionnaire survey, we verify the research model and hypothesis.
The main conclusions from this study are:MC(Media Credibility) has the negative moderating effect, and CS(Commodity Scarcity) has the positive effect. PE(Panic Emotion) has the central role of the consumer decision-making process, affecting consumers' purchase intention directly, which is different from TRA (Theory of Reasoned Action). At the same time, variables of RT(Rumor Trust), RGI(Reference Group Intention) and RP(Risk Perception) can also affect PE(Panic Emotion), and the influence from RGI is the most remarkable one. Surprisingly, PBR(Past Behavior Regest) doesn't have a obvious effect on PE.
The innovation of this study is that we introduce PE into the research model, through which, the essential difference between rational and irrational consumption is found.
At the end of this paper, we suggest the government should provide the most rapid supply system to reduce the commodity scarcity when panic buying emerges, but not to blame the ignorance of common people. At the same time, in order to improve ME, long-term construction is needed.
引文
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[11]王怡.中国大学：理性与非理性之融合[J].教育学术月刊,2009(04)：25-27+36.
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[14]Hawkins D I, Mothersbaugh, David L., Best, Roger J. Consumer behavior:building marketing strategy [M]机械工业出版社和美国麦格劳-希尔教育(亚洲)出版公司,2007.
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[17]刘洪.经济混沌管理的基本原理[J].系统辩证学学报,1998(01)：40-43+48.
[18]阎梁,瞿昆.社会危机事件处理的理论与实践[M].北京：中央党校出版社,2003.
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[20]刘金平,周广亚,黄宏强.风险认知的结构,因素及其研究方法[J].心理学,2006(02)：370-372.
[21]周岩.基于TRA和TAM的大学生网络学习行为模型构建[J].中国电化育,2009(11)：58-62.
[22]卜玉梅.风险分配、系统信任与风险感知[D].厦门大学,2009.
[23]Zajonc R B. Emotion and facial reference:A theory reclaimed[J]. Science,1985, 288:15-21.
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[26]潘相国.网络谣言与新闻真实[D].华中师范大学,2002.
[27]沈馨.9/11后美国社会政治谣言的传播分析[D].中国传媒大学,2008.
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[29]SeeZajonc R B. Feeling and thinking:Preferences need no inference[J]. American Psychologist,1980(35):151-751.
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