委内瑞纳和中国江西省柑橘鲜果需求的比较分析
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摘要
China have experienced a great economic develop the last30year; reminding the situation that Chinese people had on the beginning of80's decade where probably most of the farmers in China couldn't have food secure; after the rural reform launched towards management responsibility to household had large effects on the rural economy, fundamentally those reforms changed tge structure incentive, then the result farmers were be able to take benefits of production above the rental changes, and also benefit of the productivity improvements. And then, in the90's Chinese government started to promote cooperation between coastal and inland, TVES (Town Village Enterprises) has resulted in the establishment of a growing number of Joint Venture in which coastal partners provide capital and technology and inland partner provide land, labor and raw material. However,21century the inequality started to rise between inner and east-coastal China, unbalanced between east-coastal with central and west China.
Jiangxi Province, this is one of the inner provinces in China that has special location in subtropical region which represent good weather for huge range of agricultural products. This province is located behind of Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian Provinces, and everybody knows that three provinces are economically more develop than Jiangxi, because of the infrastructure, investment; and so on. Anyhow, Chinese government promulgated new policy to develop the economic for central and west China, especially for agricultural-oriented as Jiangxi Province. In this sense, Superior Agricultural Products Plan was promulgated on2008, and Jiangxi Province became more specialized in Citrus with Washington Naval Orange.
Venezuela is country in tropical zone that tries to improve the agricultural sector to reduce the dependence of imports; the develop of agricultural sector is always difficult and complicated to be success by the diversity lands, erratic climatic events, and so on; these entire situations is well characterized in tropical areas; additionally, the diverse of socioeconomic condition of the farmers and agricultural practice that is need to reach high production are other important factor; so, the citrus sector have a lot of difficulties to get good results.
As with comparison and contrast in daily life, a lot of researchers often use comparison and contrast in order to try to evaluate serious objective, to look relevant features. Having the opportunity to be in China, the purpose of this study is to analysis of the Fresh Orange Demand in Jiangxi province and Venezuela as well. For this purpose will make an Econometrics Analysis of Demand of Fresh Orange, and was calculated Elasticity Price Demand and Income Demand; of course, the study of demand also will look at the supply to figure important linkages, that's why we also have done Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) to determine the demand. Additionally, to have more understanding of the situation, Forecasting of Demand and Simulation were done in both Venezuela and Jiangxi Province. To be aware of Demand is really important for firms or governments to estimate impact of policy, raise revenue, improve planning; and so on.
The data was collected from Jiangxi Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economic, From1993to2010years was collected data of price of citrus, income of household, production of citrus, and temperature in that area. In the case of Venezuela was used the Agricultural Census Data from Venezuela and also from FAO from1998to2012was collected data of orange price; that is a statistical research made by Venezuela Agricultural Ministry; also the data was collected from Venezuela National Statistic Institute, Confederation Associations of Agricultural Producer of Venezuela.
In spite of the culture difference, location, and so on; the fresh orange fruit has different value for Venezuelan and Jiangxi Province China. For Venezuelan people, when the income rises quantity demanded falls as consumers switch to more luxurious products, it is different behavior from people from Jiangxi Province that when income rises quantity demanded also increases, so there are different power to purchase. The People from Jiangxi Province are more affected on the familiar budget when the price of Orange raises comparative with Venezuelan people.
In the case of Venezuela the demand is price inelastic, a fall in price leads to a fall in revenue, the increase in the quantity demanded does not compensate for the fact that each unit is selling for less; therefore, to increase revenue when demand is price inelastic, the producers should increase price, and this aspect the government may be do not allow, the farmers should search new markets or add value to the fruit. In this case of China, there is a lot of subsidy to the farmers as a part of promulgated policy and also more control of the pricing by the government. The result of2SLS for Venezuela and Jiangxi Province have not gotten good result as predictor, even proxy were not good, and the error were so high in both cases, main of the reason was the data that was not enough to get better performance.
The Forecasting of orange consumption in Jiangxi Province and Venezuela using times series and ARIMA methodology showed better results, there were results more closed to the real situation; of course, we used only one dependent variable for the study, but anyway the linear tendency reflect that in the near future will not hope to have big changes in the demand. Finally, the result of the simulation showed that only22.5%can consume more than10kg of fresh orange in Jiangxi Province, which represented a data interesting being Jiangxi Province one of the best producer of orange. Reminded the criteria of the "Economic welfare depends most directly not on what a country can produce, but on what its citizens can consume the combinations of goods and services that a country's citizens might feasibly consume", it looks that people in this province has low capacity of purchase even for consume the own product; however, there should be different reason why most of people more than10kg of orange annually.
Dynamic of demand fresh orange trend in Venezuela will be rises, because of the population growth, the Venezuela National Statistic Institute believe that in2050the population will reach40million with average grow of0.5%more and less. In Jiangxi Province, trend of orange demand will increase, may be due the moving of people from rural to urban area. So, in both cases will be important to improve the technology to increase the capacity of supply. Also, Venezuela National Statistic Institute believe that in2050the population will have an average age over38,5years old; but, according to Jiangxi Statistical Bureau in Jiangxi Province most of people have over40years old nowadays, especially in rural areas. Having people around this age, it will important maintain good capacity of food supply.
The Forecasting of orange consumption in Jiangxi Province and Venezuela using times series and ARIMA methodology showed better results, there were results more closed to the real situation; of course, we used only one dependent variable for the study, but anyway the linear tendency reflect that in the near future will not hope big changes in the demand.
Venezuela and Jiangxi Province are located very far whether both can think about the opportunity to develop trade relationship. However, Venezuela and China are having good moment in the cooperation; it will be good to search opportunities to develop good technology. In this sense, under the frame of the mechanism of exchange and consultation between both countries could establish a lot of project to develop agricultural products and by-products of citrus that main focus should be in rural develop. The exchange of scientific knowledge and technology should be part of the process of develop the projects.
引文
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33. Jiangxi Province Statistical Yearbook.2012
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35. Jung, Sunho. Structural Equation Modelling with Small Samples Sizes Using Two-Stage Ridge Least Squares Estimation. Behav Res (2013) 45:75-81
36. Larsen, Earling Roed. Using Inverted Engel Curve to Estimate Material Standard of living in a Household. Empir Ecom (2009) 36:109-132
37. Li, Kuai-Wai. China's Total Factor Productivity Estimates by Regions, Investment Sources and Ownership. Economy Systems 33 (2009) 213-230
38. Monfort, Alain; Feron, Olivier. Joint Econometric Modeling of Spot Electricity Price, Forward and Options.Rev Deriv Res(2012)15:217-256
39. Mohan, S.; Vedula, S. Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model for Long-term Forecasting of Inflows. Water Resources Management 9:115-126,1995
40. Monteverde S. Edmundo E., Rangel Aranguren Ezequiel Alfonso. National Service of Certification of Citrus Plants:I History. INIA DIVULGA No.1,2004
41. Moore, Henry Ludwell. Partial Elasticity of Demand. Quarterly Journal of Economics, (40) 3, 393-401
42. Olaizola Cristina; Este, Maria Eugenia; Tapia, Maria Soledad; Carmona, Andres, Emaldi,Unai. Rev Chile Nutr Vol.33, N°1, October 2006. Towards a Program to Promote Fruit and Vegetable Consumption in Venezuela.
43. Papachristou, George A. Is Lottery Demand Elasticity a Reliable Marketing Tool? Evidence from a Game Innovation in Greece. Risec, Volume 53 (2006). No.4627-640.yt
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48. Sivakumar, M. V. K.; Das, H.P.; Brunini, O. Impacts of Present and Future Clima Variability and Change on Agriculuture and Forestry in The Arid and Semi-arid Tropics. Climatic Change(2005) 70:31-72
49. Raychaudhui, Samik. Proceeding of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference.2008
50. Tong, Han; Wahl, Thomas I. China's Rural Household for Fruit and Vegetables. Journal of Agriculture and Applied Economics; 30,1 (July 1998):141-150
51. Tsitsika, Efthymia; Maravelias D., Christos; Haralabous, John. Modeling and Forecasting Pelagic Fish Production Using Univariate and Multivariate ARIMA Models. Fisheries Science 2007;73:979-988
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55. Wagner, Manuel; Laborem, Gaton; Marin, Carlos; Medina, Gerardo; Rangel, Luis. The Effect of Different Rootstock of Citrus and Interval Irrigations in the Quality and Production of Valencia Orange. Bioagro 14(2):71-76,2002
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69.中国柑橘优势区域布局规划(2008-2015)(China Citrus Superior Region Distribution Planning 2008-2015).农业工程技术-农产品加工业(Agriculture Engineering Technology) 2009(9).
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71.何,劝；祁,春节。浙江柑橘(Zhejiang Citrus) 2009 26 (1)
72.单,伟；谭,杂杂。经济研究导刊(Economic Research Guide) 2009 (36)
73.单,杨。中国柑橘工业的现状,发展趋势与对策。中国食品学报(Journal of Chinese Institute of Food Science and Technology)2008年2月,第8卷,第1期。
74.顾聪学,郭爱民,张云贵,吴纯清。利用WTO规则提高重庆柑橘产品竞争力对策研究。西南园艺。第30卷,2002年增刊
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2.30th session of the committee on World Food Security. Draft Paper.2004
3. Albornoz, Arleniz; Ortega, Leonardo; Segovia, Emma; Bracho, Yelitza; Cubillan, Gerson. BIOAGRO 21(1):57-62.2009. Purchase Attributes of fresh Fruit at Domestic Level
4. Aular Urrieta Jesus E. Venezuela Citrus Production. www.todafruta.com.br. Publication 09-07-2009
5. Aular Urrieta Jesus E., Dorian Rodriguez. Edited Memory of Ⅱ Actualization Training Course of Fruticulture UCLA Venezuela. Septembre 2005.
6. Aular Urrieta Jesus E.. Edited Memory of Ⅱ Actualization Training Course of Fruticulture UCLA Venezuela. Septembre 2005.
7. Aular Urrieta Jesus E.. Edited Memory of Ⅱ Actualization Training Course of Fruticulture UCLA Venezuela. Septembre 2005.
8. Aular Urrieta Jesus E.. Venezuela Citrus Production. www.todafruta.com.br. Publication 09-07-2009
9. Aular Urrieta Jesus E.. Venezuela Citrus Production. www.todafruta.com.br. Publication 15-02-2008
10. Bhachattaryya, D.K. An Economic Rationale a System of Log-Linear Asset Demand Functions. De Economic 128, NR.2,1980
11. Brown, Mark; Lee, Jonq Ying. Impacts of the Distribution of Household Across Income Groups in a differential Demand System for Orange Juice. Empirical Economics (2008) 34: 567-584
12. Chen, Po-Chi; Yu, Ming-Miin; Chang, Chin-Cheng; Hsu, Shih-HSun. Total Factor Productivity Growth in China's Agricultural Sector. China Economic Review 19 (2008) 580-593.
13. Conway, Roger K.; Stellmacher, Michel, Yanagida, John F.; Napper, Wynnice. An Econometric Demand Model of USA Potato Market. Potato Research 29 (1986):463-476
14. Danckwerts, Marion; Danckwerts, Rudolf. The HWWA Econometric Model for Economic Forecast. Intereconomics, July/August 1999.
15. Daniele Ndo, Eunice Golda; Bella Manga, Fautin; Ndindeng, Sali Atanga; Nkeng, Michel Ndoumbe; Fontem, Ajong Dominic; Cilas, Christian. Altitude, tree species and soil type are the main factors influencing the severity of Phaeoramularia leaf and fruit spot disease of citrus in the humid zones of Cameroon. Eur J Plant Pathol (2010) 128:385-397.
16. Deng, Nan. Learn from the Past, Look to the Future. China Today, Vol.58 No.1 January 2009
17. Deng,Xiuxin. Citrus Varieties in China.2008 September 9th
18. DiMasi, J.A.; Schap, D. The Apropiate Specification of Constant Elasticity Demand Function. Social Choice Welfare (1985) 2:89-94
19. Engel, Joachin; Kneip, Alois. Recent Approaches to Estimate Engel Curve. Journal of Economics, Vol.63 (1996), No.2 pp.187-212
20. Esmaeili, M. Optimal Selling Price, Marketing Expenditure and Lot Size under General Demand Function. Int J Adv Manuf Technol (2009) 45:191-198
21. FAO. Nutritional Profiles by Countries-Venezuela. December,2000. FAO Rome.
22. Faustino, Claudio Paulo; Pinheiro M., Carpinteiro, Octavio A.; Lima, Isaias. Times Series Forecasting through ruled-based models Obtained Via Rough Set. Artif Intel] Rev (2011) 36: 299-310
23. Fienberg, Stephen. Statistical Perspective on Confidentiality and Data Access in Public Health. Statistic in Medicine,2001 (20):1347-1356
24. Ginand Leon, Marcos, http://agronota.com/2012/09/periodo-de-lluvia-genera-contraccion-del-10-en-produccion-de-naranjas/.
25. Giudi, Paolo; Castelo, Robert. Improving Markov Chain Montercarlo Model Search for Dataminig. Machine Learning,50,127-158.2003
26. Hahn, Jinyong; Jerry, Hausman. Notes on bias in estimators for simultaneous equation models. Volume 75, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 237-241.
27. Han Zhang, Fu (韩长赋)Problems of Third National Agricultural Plan(三农问题).2dn Edition February 2010.
28. Han, Tong; Wahl, Tomas I. China's Rural Household Demand for Fruit and Vegetables. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,30,1 (July 1998):141-150
29. Hanlon, David. China's Citrus and Trade:Observation and Issue. FAO China Citrus Symposium, Beijing. May 14-15,2001
30. Ho, Chum-Yu; Li, Dan. Rising Regional Inequality in China:Policy regimes and structural changes. Papers in Regional Sciences, Volume 87 number 2, June 2008.
31. Hoptroff, R.G. The Principles and Practice of Time Series Forecasting and Business Modelling Using Neural Nets. Neural Comput & Applic (1993) 1:59-66
32. Huang, Kuo S.; Gale, Fred. Food Demand in China:Income, quality, and nutrient effects. China Economic Agricultural Review. Vol.1 No.4,2009 pp.395-409.
33. Jiangxi Province Statistical Yearbook.2012
34. Jimenez, Juan de Dios; Salas Velasco, Manuel. Modeling Educational Choices. A Binomial Logit Model applied to the Demand for Higher Education. Higher Education 40:293-311, 2000
35. Jung, Sunho. Structural Equation Modelling with Small Samples Sizes Using Two-Stage Ridge Least Squares Estimation. Behav Res (2013) 45:75-81
36. Larsen, Earling Roed. Using Inverted Engel Curve to Estimate Material Standard of living in a Household. Empir Ecom (2009) 36:109-132
37. Li, Kuai-Wai. China's Total Factor Productivity Estimates by Regions, Investment Sources and Ownership. Economy Systems 33 (2009) 213-230
38. Monfort, Alain; Feron, Olivier. Joint Econometric Modeling of Spot Electricity Price, Forward and Options.Rev Deriv Res(2012)15:217-256
39. Mohan, S.; Vedula, S. Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model for Long-term Forecasting of Inflows. Water Resources Management 9:115-126,1995
40. Monteverde S. Edmundo E., Rangel Aranguren Ezequiel Alfonso. National Service of Certification of Citrus Plants:I History. INIA DIVULGA No.1,2004
41. Moore, Henry Ludwell. Partial Elasticity of Demand. Quarterly Journal of Economics, (40) 3, 393-401
42. Olaizola Cristina; Este, Maria Eugenia; Tapia, Maria Soledad; Carmona, Andres, Emaldi,Unai. Rev Chile Nutr Vol.33, N°1, October 2006. Towards a Program to Promote Fruit and Vegetable Consumption in Venezuela.
43. Papachristou, George A. Is Lottery Demand Elasticity a Reliable Marketing Tool? Evidence from a Game Innovation in Greece. Risec, Volume 53 (2006). No.4627-640.yt
44. Perez1, Mercedez; Soto, Enio; Avilan Luis; Gutierrez1,Ma. Angelica. Influence of Rainfall on Sustainable System of Citrus Fruit Production of Montalban. INIA HOY. No 1. January-April 2008. Venezuela
45. Qi, Chunjie; Zhao, Yu; Yang, Miaomiao. Changes in Chinese Citrus Import and Export Pattern and Efficiency after the Accession to WTO. Proceedings of the International Society of Citriculture, Volume Ⅱ. Wuhan, China, October 2008
46. Qiong, Liu (2009). Moving to the Interior:Industries Relocate West. China Today. Vol.58 No.7
47. Silva Le6n, Gustavo A. Classification of Thermal Floor in Venezuela. Venezuelan Geography Journal (Revista Geografica de Venezuela). Vol 43 (2) 2002:2-311-328
48. Sivakumar, M. V. K.; Das, H.P.; Brunini, O. Impacts of Present and Future Clima Variability and Change on Agriculuture and Forestry in The Arid and Semi-arid Tropics. Climatic Change(2005) 70:31-72
49. Raychaudhui, Samik. Proceeding of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference.2008
50. Tong, Han; Wahl, Thomas I. China's Rural Household for Fruit and Vegetables. Journal of Agriculture and Applied Economics; 30,1 (July 1998):141-150
51. Tsitsika, Efthymia; Maravelias D., Christos; Haralabous, John. Modeling and Forecasting Pelagic Fish Production Using Univariate and Multivariate ARIMA Models. Fisheries Science 2007;73:979-988
52. Venezuela Agricultural Census 2011.
53. Vera, Raul R. Senior Scientist and Leader of the Tropical Pastures Program, International Center of Tropical Agriculture, C1AT, based in Cali, Colombia. Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. January 2003
54. Wagner, Manuel; Laborem, Gaton; Marin, Carlos; Medina, Gerardo; Rangel, Luis. The Effect of Different Rootstock of Citrus and Interval Irrigations in the Quality and Production of Valencia Orange. Bioagro 14(2):71-76,2002
55. Wagner, Manuel; Laborem, Gaton; Marin, Carlos; Medina, Gerardo; Rangel, Luis. The Effect of Different Rootstock of Citrus and Interval Irrigations in the Quality and Production of Valencia Orange. Bioagro 14(2):71-76,2002
56. Westman, William. China, People of Republic Annual Report 2008. USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, Gain Report, Global Agriculture Information Network.
57. Westman, William. China, People of Republic Annual Report 2008. USDA Foreign Agriculture Service, Gain Report, Global Agriculture Information Network
58. Woo, C. K.; Zarnikau, J.; Kollman, E. Exact Welfare Measurement for Double Log-Demand with Partial Adjustment. Empir Eco (2012) 42:171-180
59. Woolsey, Michel. China-People of Republic Citurs Report 2009. USDA Foreign Agriculture Service. Global Agricultural Information Network.2009
60. www.china-citrus.cn.农业部组织经销商采购江西柑橘17亿元。2009-11-24中国柑橘网
61. www.fao.org
62. www.fedeagro.org
63. www.ine.org.ve.Venezuela National Statistic Institute
64. www.wikipedia.org
65. Zhao, Yu; Zhang, Yu; Qi, Chunji. A Study on the Interaction between Chinese Export Price and World Import Price of Tangerines.
66. Zhen, Jinghai; Bigsten, Arne; Hu, Angang. Can China Growth be sustained? A Productivity Perspective. World Development Vol.37, No.4.
67. Zhihong, Zhang. Background review chapter of his doctoral dissertation entitled "Industrialization and Energy Uses:An Empirical Study of China Township and Village Enterprises. University of Pennsylvania,1997.
68. Zhihong, Zhang. Background review chapter of his doctoral dissertation entitled "Industrialization and Energy Uses:An Empirical Study of China Township and Village Enterprises. University of Pennsylvania,1997.
69.中国柑橘优势区域布局规划(2008-2015)(China Citrus Superior Region Distribution Planning 2008-2015).农业工程技术-农产品加工业(Agriculture Engineering Technology) 2009(9).
70.中国柑橘优势区域布局规划(2008-2015) (China Citrus Superior Region Distribution Planning 2008-2015).农业工程技术-农产品加工业(Agriculture Engineering Technology) 2009(9)
71.何,劝；祁,春节。浙江柑橘(Zhejiang Citrus) 2009 26 (1)
72.单,伟；谭,杂杂。经济研究导刊(Economic Research Guide) 2009 (36)
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