城镇低收入人群粮食安全保障:价格补贴VS收入补贴
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摘要
继2007-08年的世界粮食危机之后,2010年我国国内粮食价格大幅上扬。粮食是生活必需品,城镇居民又是粮食的净消费者,当粮食价格上涨、非粮价格和名义收入保持不变时,城镇居民既有的货币收入所能购买的、包括粮食在内的商品数量将减少或者质量将下降,抑或兼而有之,但在按收入分组的城镇居民中,不同收入人群受到的影响不同。实证研究发现,粮食价格上涨,收入越低的城镇居民其粮食安全受到的负面影响越严重、粮食及粮食福利的分配对其越不利。受制于收入水平,城镇低收入人群的粮食支出仅能满足基本生活需求、既有的粮食及粮食福利的分配对其很不利。如果粮食价格上涨进一步威胁其粮食安全、恶化粮食及粮食福利的分配就有可能引发这部分人群的强烈不满,甚至会带来严重的社会问题,因此,粮食价格上涨对城镇低收入人群进行政策扶持是必要的。
     购买是城镇居民获取粮食的最主要渠道,其粮食获取能力既取决于价格,又取决于可支配收入。当粮食价格上涨时,政策制定者既可以用价格补贴将粮食价格控制在初始水平或低于市场均衡水平,以保证城镇低收入人群的既有收入可以购买到满足基本生活需求的粮食;也可以让市场决定粮食价格,当粮食价格上涨后采用收入补贴来提高城镇低收入人群的支付能力,即用增进收入来充抵粮食价格上涨,这同样可以实现保障城镇低收入人群粮食安全的政策目标。既然价格补贴和收入补贴都能实现既定的政策目标,那么,在制定政策时就有必要进行优化选择,即寻求以最低的成本实现既定的政策目标。此外,粮食安全保障的政策成本来源于公共财政资金、其分配形式属于二次分配,而公共财政资金的使用效率以及二次分配对收入分配的改善作用也备受关注,也是政策制定者进行相机决策的重要依据。本文将从政策成本、补贴资金的使用效率及其收入分配状况等三个视角分析应对价格上涨、针对城镇低收入人群的粮食安全保障政策是价格补贴更优,还是收入补贴更优?研究内容包括:
     内容一:价格补贴与收入补贴的政策成本
     价格补贴是指政府通过转移支付将上涨的粮食价格恢复至初始水平或低于均衡价格,以保障目标人群的粮食安全。价格补贴无法将非目标人群排除在外,其实际补贴的是所有城镇居民,而政府限制粮食价格上涨的目的是为了保证城镇低收入人群具有获取满足基本生活需求粮食的支付能力、确保他们的粮食安全,而在实施价格补贴的过程中其政策目标已经发生偏离,数量庞大的非目标人群将大幅度地推高政策成本。政策模拟发现,无论粮食安全保障的目标人群是城镇低收入人群、最低收入人群还是困难人群,如果粮食价格上涨20%,为保障目标人群的粮食安全、采用价格补贴将粮食价格恢复至初始水平所需的政策成本是417.30亿元。收入补贴是指粮食价格上涨后,政府通过转移支付向目标人群直接发放现金或现金券,以实现既定的粮食安全政策目标。按照补贴标准的不同,收入补贴又可以分为等效用补贴和等量补贴等两种具体形式。实证研究发现,当粮食价格上涨20%、粮食安全保障的目标人群由低收入人群缩小至最低收入人群和困难人群时,等效用补贴的政策成本将由73.56亿元下降至35.72亿元和17.22亿元,等量补贴的政策成本将由78.29亿元下降至37.48亿元和17.97亿元。实证结果表明,与价格补贴相比,收入补贴具有明显的成本优势,而且随着补贴人群的缩小,收入补贴的成本优势将更加明显。就收入补贴而言,尽管等量补贴的人均补贴成本仅比等效用补贴略高一点,但经人数众多的补贴人群放大后,等效用补贴具有明显的成本优势,且补贴人群越宽,成本优势越明显。
     内容二:价格补贴和收入补贴的资金使用效率
     粮食安全保障资金的使用效率是指补贴资金用于目标人群的粮食消费占补贴资金的比例。实施补贴政策的目的是为了保证目标人群的粮食安全,但价格补贴无法排除非目标人群,部分补贴资金被非目标人群用于粮食消费,价格补贴的补贴人群瞄准性偏差将降低补贴资金的使用效率。当粮食价格上涨、非粮价格不变时,粮食与非粮食的相对价格将上涨,此时理性的消费者将减少粮食消费、增加非粮消费,即使给予足够的收入补贴,消费者也会以效用最大化为基准将补贴资金在粮食与非粮食之间进行合理分配,这意味着尽管收入补贴的补贴资金全部给了目标人群,但部分补贴资金被他们用于非粮消费,收入补贴的补贴对象瞄准性偏差也将降低补贴资金的使用效率。无论是价格补贴的补贴资金被非目标人群用于粮食消费,还是收入补贴的补贴资金被目标人群用于非粮消费,他们都偏离了城镇低收入人群粮食安全保障的政策目标,都属于粮食安全保障资金的漏出,而漏出率越高补贴资金的使用效率越低。政策模拟表明,当粮食价格上涨200%,采用价格补贴保障城镇低收入人群、最低收入人群和困难人群的粮食安全时,补贴资金的使用效率将由18.76%下降至8.98%和4.31%。就收入补贴的资金使用效率而言,无论是哪个目标人群,等效用补贴均高于等量补贴大约4个百分点。随着粮食安全保障的目标人群由低收入人群缩小至最低收入人群和困难人群时,等效用补贴和等量补贴的资金使用效率将分别由67.77%上升至75.20%、78.15%以及63.72%上升至71.69%、74.92%。
     内容三:价格补贴和收入补贴的收入分配效应
     补贴是一个国家或地区的政府对一部分经济活动者非主观原因所致的收益状况恶化而给予的补助,是政府财政向微观经济主体无偿转移收入的经济范畴。作为国民收入再分配的一种形式,补贴对改善收入分配、降低收入不平等的作用也备受关注。价格补贴是按消费量进行的补贴,各收入人群获益的多少与消费量及消费支出成正比。由于粮食是生活必需品,其消费需求具有很强的刚性特征,城镇不同收入人群间的粮食支出差距明显小于收入差距,因此,尽管收入越高从价格补贴中获得的补贴越多,但不同收入人群间获得的补贴资金差距小于收入差距,即价格补贴将缩小收入差距。收入补贴在提高目标人群收入的同时,并不改变非目标人群的收入,即针对低收入人群粮食安全保障的收入补贴政策可以缩小城镇不同收入人群间的收入差距。目标人群从等效用补贴中获得的补贴金额略低于等量补贴,其对不同收入人群间收入分配改善的效果也会略差于等量补贴,但由于两者补贴金额的差异很小,因此,对收入分配改善的效果差异也可能不太明显。由于收入补贴目标瞄准性更好,当价格补贴和收入补贴的资金相同时,收入补贴的收入分配效应可能更好。实证结果显示,未实施粮食安全保障措施时,城镇不同收入人群间可支配收入的基尼系数为0.3169,采用价格补贴保障城镇低收入人群、最低收入人群或困难人群粮食安全时,相应的基尼系数将下降为0.3161,而采用收入补贴后可支配收入的基尼系数将依次下降为0.3162、0.3166和0.3167。当价格补贴补贴的资金与针对城镇低收入人群的等量补贴资金相同时,实施价格补贴后的基尼系数为0.3169,高于收入补贴后的0.3162。
     综上所述,本研究认为粮食价格上涨对城镇低收入人群进行政策扶持是必要的,且收入越低越应该优先得到扶持,即补贴应按照困难人群、最低收入人群和低收入人群的优先序进行。与价格补贴相比,收入补贴无论在政策成本还是补贴资金的使用效率上都具有明显的优势,尽管价格补贴和收入补贴都可以缩小城镇不同收入人群间的收入差距,但当补贴资金相同时,收入补贴的收入分配效应更好。因此,收入补贴是应对粮食价格上涨、保障城镇低收入人群粮食安全的更好政策选择。对收入补贴的进一步细分发现,等效用补贴又优于等量补贴。
Following the world food crisis during2007-08, Chinese domestic grain price rose sharply in2010. Grain is the necessity for daily life, the urban residents are net-consumers, when non-grain price and nominal income remain unchanged, and the rise of grain price will reduce the quality of commodities including grain or what they can buy or both. But the impact is different among all urban groups divided by income-level. Empirical results indicated that the lower-income group will be hurt more in food security, and the distribution of grain and grain welfare will be unfavorable for them when grain price goes up. Constrained by income, low-income group can only cover grain expenditure for basic life, and the distribution of grain and grain welfare is unfavorable for them. If grain price rise threaten their grain security more, worsen the distribution of grain and grain welfare, and it will create strong dissatisfaction, even bring about serious social problems, so it is necessary to support urban low-income group when grain price increases.
     Purchase is the most popular way for urban residents to get food for individuals, grain purchasing power of individuals depends on both price and disposable income. When gain price goes up, policy-maker can use price subsidy to keep grain price equal to initial level or below equilibrium, and ensure urban low-income group to buy enough food to meet their basic life needs, they also can use income subsidy to enhance their purchasing power after grain price rises, which is decided by market, it means income rise can counteract price surge, it also can attain policy goal ensuring food security for urban low-income group. Since both price subsidy and income subsidy can attain policy goal, policy-maker should optimize their decision-making—to seek a policy with lower cost to attain goal. In addition, the funds of food security come from public finance capital, it belongs to secondary allocation, and both efficiency and benefit of income distribution of public funds are all concerned, and all these are important basis to make decision for policy-maker. This paper will discuss the desired policy option is price subsidy or income subsidy, for the urban low-incomer to counteract price surge, from the view of policy cost, subsidy funds' efficiency and income distribution effect. The contents including:
     Content1:Policy cost of price subsidy and income subsidy
     Price subsidy means government recover grain price to initial level or below equilibrium through payment transfer to ensure food security for targeted people. Price subsidy can not rule out non-targeted people, actually it subsidies all urban residents, but the aim to restrain grain price rise is to ensure purchasing power and food security for urban low-income group. The aim of policy has been changed when price subsidy is implemented, and the policy cost will be pushed up by enormous non-targeted people. Policy simulation found that grain price increases20%if we use price subsidy to recover grain price to initial level, the policy cost is41.73billion yuan, no matter the targeted-people is low-income group, the lowest-income group or the poor. Income subsidy means government issues cash or cash coupon to targeted people directly through payment transfer to attain established food security policy goal after grain price increases. According to subsidy standard, income subsidy can be divided into Hicks subsidy and Slutsky subsidy. Empirical analysis found, if grain price increases20%, the policy cost of Hicks subsidy will decrease from7.356billion yuan to3.572billion yuan and1.722billion yuan, the policy cost of Slutsky subsidy will decrease from7.829billion yuan to3.748billion yuan and1.797billion yuan while the targeted people are narrowed from low-income group to the lowest-income group or the poor. The empirical analysis indicated that compared with price subsidy, income subsidy had obvious cost advantage, and the advantage will be more distinct as subsidy group is narrowed. As for income subsidy, although per capital subsidy cost of Slutsky is slightly higher than Hicks subsidy, still Hicks subsidy has obvious cost advantage after it is enlarged by numerous targeted people, and the advantage will be intensified with the width of targeted group.
     Content2:Funds'efficiency of price subsidy and income subsidy
     The efficiency of food security funds means the rate of subsidy funds in grain consumption for targeted people. The aim of implementing subsidy policy is to ensure food security for targeted people, but price subsidy cannot exclude non-targeted people, some subsidy funds are used to compensate grain consumption for non-targeted people, the deviation of targeted people in price subsidy will lower the efficiency of subsidy funds. When grain price increases and non-grain price fixes, the relative price of grain to non-grain will increase, the rational consumer will reduce grain consumption and increase non-grain consumption, consumer will distribute their subsidy funds between grain and non-grain on the base of maximizing utility, even if they get enough income subsidy, this means even all the funds of income subsidy are given to targeted people, some of the funds are still used for non-grain consumption. The deviation of subsidy objects in income subsidy will decrease the efficiency of its funds. No matter the funds used for grain consumption by non-targeted people in price subsidy or for non-grain consumption by targeted-people in income subsidy, both of them make policy goal deviated and belong to leakage of food security for urban low-income group, and the funds'efficiency will decrease with leakage rate increasing. Policy simulation indicated that if grain price increases20%, the funds'efficiency will decrease from18.76%to8.98%or4.31%in price subsidy with targeted-people narrowed from low-income group to the lowest-income group or the poor. As for the efficiency of income subsidy funds, Hicks subsidy is higher than Slutsky subsidy about4points, no matter the targeted-people is low-income group or the lowest-income group and the poor. With the targeted-people in food security narrowed from low-income group to the lowest-income group or the poor, the funds'efficiency of Hicks subsidy and Slutsky subsidy will rise from67.77%to75.20%and78.15%, or from63.72%to71.69%and74.92%in turn.
     Content3:Income distribution effect of price subsidy and income subsidy
     Subsidy is allowance that the government of a country or region gives supplement to those who suffer and their income deteriorates out of non subjective reason, it is an economic category that government finance transfer income to the micro-economic subject for free. As a form of national income redistribution, subsidy is concerned about its effect on improving income distribution and reducing income inequality. Price subsidy gives supplement according to consumption, how much each group can get is positively correlated with their consumption. Since grain is necessity for daily life, its consumption has a character with rigidity, grain expenditure gap is smaller than income gap among different urban groups by income-level. So, although the higher income group can get more from price subsidy, the subsidy gap is smaller than income gap among different urban groups, it means price subsidy will narrow income gap. Income subsidy will improve income of targeted people, and will not change income of non-targeted people, therefore, income policy for urban low-income group's food security can reduce income gap among different urban groups by income-level. Supplement that targeted people get from Hicks subsidy is slightly less than Slutsky subsidy, so its effect to improve income distribution will be also slightly worse than Slutsky subsidy. Since the difference in supplement is very small between them, the differentiation in improving income distribution will not so obvious. With better target effect, the income distribution effect of income subsidy will better than price subsidy if the policy cost is the same. The empirical result showed, without food security policy the Gini coefficient of disposable income is0.3169among urban different income groups, and it will reduce to0.3161after implementing price subsidy no matter the targeted people is urban low-income group, the lowest-income group or the poor. The Gini coefficient will reduce to0.3162,0.3166and0.3167after implementing income subsidy when the targeted people is low-income group, the lowest-income group or the poor. The Gini coefficient is0.3169after price subsidy, higher than0.3162after income subsidy, when the subsidy fund is equal to Slutsky subsidy for the urban low-income.
     In conclusion, this study suggests that it is necessary to support urban low income group when grain price rises and the lower should have priority in getting subsidy, it means the priority sequence is the poor, the lowest-income group and then the low-income group. Compared with price subsidy, income subsidy has significant advantage no matter in policy cost or in funds' efficiency, and although both price subsidy and income subsidy can shorten income gap among urban different income groups, but the income distribution effect of income subsidy is better when subsidy fund is the same. Therefore, income subsidy is a preferable option to help urban low-income group against price rise for their food security. As for income subsidy, Hicks subsidy is better than Slutsky subsidy.
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