基于现金流量的企业财务评价预警系统
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摘要
企业财务评价预警系统是一种决策支持系统,其通过对宏观经济数据和企业内部数据的分析评价,利用评价指标和发展趋势来预测未来的企业发展状况、度量未来的风险程度,帮助企业管理人员及时预知风险并采取应对措施来规避风险,减少损失。评价侧重于评判企业的历史经营状况,用于判断企业经营战略和其他经营措施有无调整必要。预警则侧重于利用评价结果,及时预知企业有可能面临的经营风险。评价功能和预警功能相辅相成、相互促进。评价预警系统的核心是指标体系。20世纪70年代以前,主要使用基于权责发生制下的传统财务指标构建指标体系,70年代后随着决策有用性会计目标的流行,现金流量的作用越来越受关注。现金流量具有生命周期型、共生性、非均衡性、不易操纵等特性。实践证明,现金流量指标比传统财务指标更能反映企业经营状况。
本文介绍了现金流量的相关概念、指标体系的构建原则及方法、企业财务评价理论和企业预警理论,包括模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、单变量预警和多变量预警。并以这些理论为依据,从设计需求、功能架构、技术架构、集成架构、数据库持久层、系统安全等方面深入研究了系统的设计与实现。
本文最后以系统在某公司的实际应用为例介绍了系统的部署和运行,系统的运行情况表明基于现金流量设计开发企业财务评价预警系统是可行的。
Financial evaluation and early warning system is a decision support system, with the analysis and evaluation on macroeconomic data and internal data, using evaluation indicators to forecast business development and the degree of risk in the future, the system helps companies predict the risk and manage to avoid it to reduce the loss. Evaluation focuses on the evaluation of historical enterprises operating conditions, it is used to determine the necessity of adjusting business strategies and other management. Early warning focuses on forecasting the underlying operational risks in time with the evaluation results. Evaluation functions and early warning functions complement each other. The core of the evaluation and early warning system is the indicator system. Before the 1970s, the indicator system was built as traditional financial indicators based on accrual basis. After that, with the popular of decision usefulness accounting objectives, the function of cash flow got more and more attention. Cash flow has many characteristics such as life cycle type, symbiotic, non-balanced, difficult to manipulation and so on. Practice has shown that cash flow indicators reflect business conditions better than the traditional financial indicators.
This thesis introduces interrelated concepts of the cash flow, the principle and method of making up indicator system, the theory of financial evaluation and corporate early warning, including the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, univariate and multivariate early warning. According to these theory, the thesis gives a detailed introduction on the design and implementation about the design requirements, functional architecture, technical architecture, integration architecture, database persistence layer, system security and so on. Finally, the thesis gives a practical application in a company using this system, generalize from the program’s running result, the system reaches expected results. The development of Financial evaluation and early warning system based on cash flow is feasible.
本文介绍了现金流量的相关概念、指标体系的构建原则及方法、企业财务评价理论和企业预警理论,包括模糊综合评价法、层次分析法、单变量预警和多变量预警。并以这些理论为依据,从设计需求、功能架构、技术架构、集成架构、数据库持久层、系统安全等方面深入研究了系统的设计与实现。
本文最后以系统在某公司的实际应用为例介绍了系统的部署和运行,系统的运行情况表明基于现金流量设计开发企业财务评价预警系统是可行的。
Financial evaluation and early warning system is a decision support system, with the analysis and evaluation on macroeconomic data and internal data, using evaluation indicators to forecast business development and the degree of risk in the future, the system helps companies predict the risk and manage to avoid it to reduce the loss. Evaluation focuses on the evaluation of historical enterprises operating conditions, it is used to determine the necessity of adjusting business strategies and other management. Early warning focuses on forecasting the underlying operational risks in time with the evaluation results. Evaluation functions and early warning functions complement each other. The core of the evaluation and early warning system is the indicator system. Before the 1970s, the indicator system was built as traditional financial indicators based on accrual basis. After that, with the popular of decision usefulness accounting objectives, the function of cash flow got more and more attention. Cash flow has many characteristics such as life cycle type, symbiotic, non-balanced, difficult to manipulation and so on. Practice has shown that cash flow indicators reflect business conditions better than the traditional financial indicators.
This thesis introduces interrelated concepts of the cash flow, the principle and method of making up indicator system, the theory of financial evaluation and corporate early warning, including the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, univariate and multivariate early warning. According to these theory, the thesis gives a detailed introduction on the design and implementation about the design requirements, functional architecture, technical architecture, integration architecture, database persistence layer, system security and so on. Finally, the thesis gives a practical application in a company using this system, generalize from the program’s running result, the system reaches expected results. The development of Financial evaluation and early warning system based on cash flow is feasible.
引文
[1]佘丛国,席酉民,我国企业预警研究理论综述,工业经济管理,2003,(5):22-28
[2]黄辉,企业财务预警与企业业绩评价的比较,经济师,2004,(5):37-38
[3]张友棠,财务预警系统管理研究,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004,78~80
[4]乔世震,财务管理专题研究,北京:中国财政经济出版社,2000,112~115
[5] FrankinJ. Plewa, Jr,全面理解现金流,北京:清华大学出版社,1999,34~40
[6] Robert. C. Higgins,财务管理分析,北京:北京大学出版社,1998,56~61
[7] Moore, Henry L, Synthetic Economics, New York: Macmillan, 1929, 23~26
[8] Ball, R. , P. Brown, An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Incom Numbers, Journal of Accounting Research,1968, (6): 33~35
[9] Blum.Failing Company Discriminant Analysis, Journal of Accounting Research,1974, (12): 278~282
[10] FrizPatrick, A Comparison of ratios Successful Industrial Enterprises with those of Failed Firms, New York:Certified Public Accountant,1932, 340~350
[11] Edward I Altman.Financial Rations, Discrimainant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, 1986, (9): 220~225
[12] Catherine. A.Finger, The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Earnings and Cash Flow, Journal of Accounting Research, 1994, (2):78~80
[13] Mary E. Barth, Donald P. Cram, Accruals and the predicition of future cash flows, The Accounting Review. 2010, (1): 428~434
[14] Beaver, W. H, Financial Rations as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research(supplement), 1966, (2):86~90
[15] James A.Ohlson, Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 1980, (3): 31-53.
[16] Cornelius Casey, Norman Batrczak, Using operating cash flow data to predict financial disress: Some extensions. Journal of Accounting Research, 1985, (1):43~50
[17] Gentry, J. A., Newbold, P., Whitford, D. T., Funds Flow Components, Financial Ratios, And Bankruptcy. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 1987,(14): 595-606
[18] Aziz, A., Emanuel, D. C., Bankruptcy Prediction-An Investigation of Cash Flow Based Models. Journal of Management Studies, 1988, (25): 419-437
[19] Aziz, A., Lawson, G. H., Cash Flow Reporting and Financial Distress Models, Testing of Hypotheses. Financial Management, 1989, (18): 55-63
[20] Gilbert, L. R., Menon, D., Schwartz, K. B., Predicting Bankruptcy for Firms in Financial Distress, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 1990, (17): 161-171.
[21] Ward, T. J., Foster, B. P., A Note on Selecting a Response Measure for Financial Distress. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 1997, (24): 869-879
[22]佘廉,企业预警管理论,石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,1999,45~50
[23]吴世农,卢贤义,我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究,经济研究,2001,(6):36-50
[24]陈静,上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析,会计研究,1999,(4):26-34
[25]陈晓,陈治鸿,中国上市公司的财务困境,中国会计与财务研究,2000,(3):25-32
[26]孟凡生,现金流量表分析浅析,财务与会计,2001,(8):220~227
[27]齐飞,上市公司经营现金流量质量分析,财会月刊,2003,(7):350~361
[28]张绪娥,现金流量表的多层面分析,湖南冶金职业技术学院学报,2005,(1):198~207
[29]陈志斌,韩飞畴,基于价值创造的现金流管理,会计研究,2002,(12):425~436
[30]赵春光,现金流量价值相关性的实证研究,会计研究,2004,(2):378~385
[31]张英,韩德明,徐彬,现金流量管理与企业安全经营,科技进步与对策,2003,(12):256~264
[32]刘纪年,正确认识财务利润与现金流量的关系,经济师,2006,(12):589~597
[33]章之旺,现金流量信息含量与财务困境预测,证券市场导报,2004,(11):98~110
[34]李秉成,田笑丰,曹芳,现金流量表分析指标体系研究,会计研究,2003,(10):523~543
[35]纪良纲,王慧娟,商品流通规模监测预警指标的筛选,经济与管理,2008,2(22):5-7
[36] Ciaran Walsh. Key Management Ratios.北京:经济管理出版社,2005,10~14
[37]葛军,葛伦应,层次分析法确定水质指标权重,当代建筑,2003,3(1):22-23
[38]宁晓秋,模糊数学原理与方法,徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2004,203-208
[39]胡永宏,贺恩辉,综合评价方法,北京:科学出版社,2000,167-188
[40]李安贵,张志宏,孟艳等,模糊数学及其应用,武汉:冶金工业出版社,2003,144-146
[41] Sun Educational Services, Architecting and Designing J2EE Applications, USA: Sun Microsystems, 2000, 124~129
[42] William H.Inmon.数据仓库(第4版)(王志海等译),北京:机械工业出版社,2006,43~60
[43]靳学辉,数据库原理与应用(第4版),北京:电子工业出版社,2009,20~50
[44] Jack J. Champlain.审计信息系统(第2版)(张金城、李海风译),北京:清华大学出版社,2004,45~51
[45] Kroll P.,Macisaac B.敏捷与秩序—RUP最佳实践(朱剑平等译),北京:清华大学出版社,2006,33~37
[2]黄辉,企业财务预警与企业业绩评价的比较,经济师,2004,(5):37-38
[3]张友棠,财务预警系统管理研究,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004,78~80
[4]乔世震,财务管理专题研究,北京:中国财政经济出版社,2000,112~115
[5] FrankinJ. Plewa, Jr,全面理解现金流,北京:清华大学出版社,1999,34~40
[6] Robert. C. Higgins,财务管理分析,北京:北京大学出版社,1998,56~61
[7] Moore, Henry L, Synthetic Economics, New York: Macmillan, 1929, 23~26
[8] Ball, R. , P. Brown, An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Incom Numbers, Journal of Accounting Research,1968, (6): 33~35
[9] Blum.Failing Company Discriminant Analysis, Journal of Accounting Research,1974, (12): 278~282
[10] FrizPatrick, A Comparison of ratios Successful Industrial Enterprises with those of Failed Firms, New York:Certified Public Accountant,1932, 340~350
[11] Edward I Altman.Financial Rations, Discrimainant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, 1986, (9): 220~225
[12] Catherine. A.Finger, The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Earnings and Cash Flow, Journal of Accounting Research, 1994, (2):78~80
[13] Mary E. Barth, Donald P. Cram, Accruals and the predicition of future cash flows, The Accounting Review. 2010, (1): 428~434
[14] Beaver, W. H, Financial Rations as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research(supplement), 1966, (2):86~90
[15] James A.Ohlson, Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 1980, (3): 31-53.
[16] Cornelius Casey, Norman Batrczak, Using operating cash flow data to predict financial disress: Some extensions. Journal of Accounting Research, 1985, (1):43~50
[17] Gentry, J. A., Newbold, P., Whitford, D. T., Funds Flow Components, Financial Ratios, And Bankruptcy. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 1987,(14): 595-606
[18] Aziz, A., Emanuel, D. C., Bankruptcy Prediction-An Investigation of Cash Flow Based Models. Journal of Management Studies, 1988, (25): 419-437
[19] Aziz, A., Lawson, G. H., Cash Flow Reporting and Financial Distress Models, Testing of Hypotheses. Financial Management, 1989, (18): 55-63
[20] Gilbert, L. R., Menon, D., Schwartz, K. B., Predicting Bankruptcy for Firms in Financial Distress, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 1990, (17): 161-171.
[21] Ward, T. J., Foster, B. P., A Note on Selecting a Response Measure for Financial Distress. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 1997, (24): 869-879
[22]佘廉,企业预警管理论,石家庄:河北科学技术出版社,1999,45~50
[23]吴世农,卢贤义,我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究,经济研究,2001,(6):36-50
[24]陈静,上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析,会计研究,1999,(4):26-34
[25]陈晓,陈治鸿,中国上市公司的财务困境,中国会计与财务研究,2000,(3):25-32
[26]孟凡生,现金流量表分析浅析,财务与会计,2001,(8):220~227
[27]齐飞,上市公司经营现金流量质量分析,财会月刊,2003,(7):350~361
[28]张绪娥,现金流量表的多层面分析,湖南冶金职业技术学院学报,2005,(1):198~207
[29]陈志斌,韩飞畴,基于价值创造的现金流管理,会计研究,2002,(12):425~436
[30]赵春光,现金流量价值相关性的实证研究,会计研究,2004,(2):378~385
[31]张英,韩德明,徐彬,现金流量管理与企业安全经营,科技进步与对策,2003,(12):256~264
[32]刘纪年,正确认识财务利润与现金流量的关系,经济师,2006,(12):589~597
[33]章之旺,现金流量信息含量与财务困境预测,证券市场导报,2004,(11):98~110
[34]李秉成,田笑丰,曹芳,现金流量表分析指标体系研究,会计研究,2003,(10):523~543
[35]纪良纲,王慧娟,商品流通规模监测预警指标的筛选,经济与管理,2008,2(22):5-7
[36] Ciaran Walsh. Key Management Ratios.北京:经济管理出版社,2005,10~14
[37]葛军,葛伦应,层次分析法确定水质指标权重,当代建筑,2003,3(1):22-23
[38]宁晓秋,模糊数学原理与方法,徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2004,203-208
[39]胡永宏,贺恩辉,综合评价方法,北京:科学出版社,2000,167-188
[40]李安贵,张志宏,孟艳等,模糊数学及其应用,武汉:冶金工业出版社,2003,144-146
[41] Sun Educational Services, Architecting and Designing J2EE Applications, USA: Sun Microsystems, 2000, 124~129
[42] William H.Inmon.数据仓库(第4版)(王志海等译),北京:机械工业出版社,2006,43~60
[43]靳学辉,数据库原理与应用(第4版),北京:电子工业出版社,2009,20~50
[44] Jack J. Champlain.审计信息系统(第2版)(张金城、李海风译),北京:清华大学出版社,2004,45~51
[45] Kroll P.,Macisaac B.敏捷与秩序—RUP最佳实践(朱剑平等译),北京:清华大学出版社,2006,33~37