基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的配电网可靠性评估模型的研究
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摘要
本文在考虑线路容量约束和潮流分布的条件下，采用序贯蒙特卡罗仿真和全年时变负荷模型评估典型配电网多重故障模式的可靠性。
配电网发生故障时，由于配电网中有一些常开的联络开关，所以可以进行故障恢复网络重构，尽可能的使非故障失电区恢复供电。故障恢复过程中保证所有的线路电流或节点电压在安全范围限度内。最终需要停运负荷点时，切负荷策略综合考虑了停电损失费用、停电电量、网损和停电时间因素。
本文提出的模型在模拟配电网的故障和负荷点停电情况方面更加真实，并可以评估不同的调度策略可靠性风险指标和可靠性效益指标的影响。经采用IEEE-RBTS Bus4配电系统测试，表明该模型是合理的、有效的。
此外本文还模拟了带有分支子馈线的复杂配电网络，并且编程完成单重故障模式的可靠性评估，采用IEEE-RBTS Bus6测试系统进行了模拟计算，结果与解析法计算的结果相比表明本文模拟的准确性。
This paper adopts sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique and time-varying load model to assess multi-fault reliability of typical distribution network considering line capacitance constraint and power flow of distribution system.
During the repair time of elements of the distribution networks, because there are some open connecting switches, service restoration reconfiguration can be carried out in order to restore outage areas service. In the term of restoration reconfiguration, it is necessary to assure that all lines current and nodes voltage are in the limits of safety. Loss of load cost, energy not severed, net loss and loss of load duration, are considered when deciding which load should be curtailed. Loss of load cost, energy not severed, net loss and loss of load duration, are considered when deciding which load should be curtailed.
Therefore, the model presented in this paper is more accurate to simulate faults of distribution network and the outage situation of load points, and reliability risk indices and reliability worth indices can be calculated according to different dispatching strategy. The model is proved valid and effective through the application on IEEE-RBTS Bus4 system.
Further more this paper simulates distribution networks with complex subfeeders and completes the program of evaluating single-fault reliability of that networks. Model is proved accurate by comparing the calculation result of IEEE-RETS Bus6 testing system using analytical method to using the mode this paper presented.
配电网发生故障时，由于配电网中有一些常开的联络开关，所以可以进行故障恢复网络重构，尽可能的使非故障失电区恢复供电。故障恢复过程中保证所有的线路电流或节点电压在安全范围限度内。最终需要停运负荷点时，切负荷策略综合考虑了停电损失费用、停电电量、网损和停电时间因素。
本文提出的模型在模拟配电网的故障和负荷点停电情况方面更加真实，并可以评估不同的调度策略可靠性风险指标和可靠性效益指标的影响。经采用IEEE-RBTS Bus4配电系统测试，表明该模型是合理的、有效的。
此外本文还模拟了带有分支子馈线的复杂配电网络，并且编程完成单重故障模式的可靠性评估，采用IEEE-RBTS Bus6测试系统进行了模拟计算，结果与解析法计算的结果相比表明本文模拟的准确性。
This paper adopts sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique and time-varying load model to assess multi-fault reliability of typical distribution network considering line capacitance constraint and power flow of distribution system.
During the repair time of elements of the distribution networks, because there are some open connecting switches, service restoration reconfiguration can be carried out in order to restore outage areas service. In the term of restoration reconfiguration, it is necessary to assure that all lines current and nodes voltage are in the limits of safety. Loss of load cost, energy not severed, net loss and loss of load duration, are considered when deciding which load should be curtailed. Loss of load cost, energy not severed, net loss and loss of load duration, are considered when deciding which load should be curtailed.
Therefore, the model presented in this paper is more accurate to simulate faults of distribution network and the outage situation of load points, and reliability risk indices and reliability worth indices can be calculated according to different dispatching strategy. The model is proved valid and effective through the application on IEEE-RBTS Bus4 system.
Further more this paper simulates distribution networks with complex subfeeders and completes the program of evaluating single-fault reliability of that networks. Model is proved accurate by comparing the calculation result of IEEE-RETS Bus6 testing system using analytical method to using the mode this paper presented.
引文
[1] 郭永基，电力系统可靠性原理和应用，清华大学出版社，1986．7．
[2] 别朝红，王锡凡，配电系统可靠性分析，中国电力，1997，30(5)：10～13．
[3] R.Billimon, EWang. Reliability-network-equivalent Approach to Distribution-system-reliability Evaluation. IEE Proc.-Gener. Trans. Distribution 1998, 145(2): 149～153.
[4] 万国成，任震，田翔，配电网可靠性评估的网络等值法模型研究．中国电机工程学报，电网技术，2003，23(5)：48～52．
[5] 别朝红，王秀丽，王锡凡，复杂配电系统的可靠性评估，西安交通大学学报，2000，34(8)：9～13．
[6] 夏岩，刘明波，邱朝明，带有复杂分支子馈线的配电系统可靠性评估，电力系统自动化，2002，26(4)：41～44．
[7] 杨文宇，余健明，同向前，基于最小割集的配电系统可靠性评估算法，西安交通大学学报，2001，17(4)：387～391．
[8] 李志明，李卫星，刘迎春，辐射状配电系统可靠性评估的故障遍历算法，电力系统自动化，2002，26(2)：53～56．
[9] 郭永基，Kofi，考虑容量约束的配电系统可靠性评估，电力系统自动化，2000，24(17)：48～51
[10] M.A.Kashem, V.Ganapathy, G.B, Jasmon. NetWork Reconfiguration for Load Balancing in Distribution networks. IEE Proceedings-Gener. Transm. Distrib., 1999, 146(6): 563～567.
[11] 王守相，王成山，一种隐含并行的大规模三相不平衡配电网络重构新算法．电力系统自动化，2000，24(19)：34～37．
[12] Qin Zhou, Dariush. Shirmohammadi et al. Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration for Operation Cost Reduction. IEEE Trans. on Power System, 1997, 12(2): 730～735.
[13] 邓佑满，张伯明，相年德，配电网络重构的改进最优潮流模式算法，电网技术，1995，19(7)：47～50．
[14] Y.H.Song , G.D.Wang , A.T.Johns , EY.Wang. Distribution Network Reconfiguration for Loss Reduction Using Fuzzy Controlled Evolutionary Programming. IEE Proceedings-Gener. Transm. Distrib., 1997, 144(4): 345～350.
[15] W.M.Lin, F.S.Cheng, M.T.Ysay. Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration with Refined Genetic Algorithm.2000, 147(6): 349～345.
[16] Aoki K, Nara K. A New Algorithm for Service Restoration Distribution System[J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1989.4(3) : 1832～1839.
[17] Susheela Devi V, Anandalingam G, Optimal Restoration for Power Supply in Large Distribution Systems in Developing Countries, IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1995, 10(1): 430～438.
[18] Karen Nan Miu, Hsiao-Dong Chiang. Fast Service Restoration Systems with Priority Customers and Constraints., IEEE Trans on Power System, 1998, 13(3): 789～795.
[19] H Serifi, A Swdighi, An Expert System Based Power System Restoration Procedure[J]. ETEP, 1998, 8(2): 48～51
[20] Auguliaro, L.Dusonchent, E.Riva Sanseverino. Service Restoration in Compensated Distribution Networks Using a Hybrid Genetic Algorithm. Electric Power Systems Research, 1998, 46: 59～66.
[21] Siqing Sheng, Youjiang Sun, Yan Liu, Wenqin Zhang, Yihan Yang. Random adaptive Optimizer restores Distribution Service. IEEE Computer Applications in Power. 2000, October: 48.
[22] Seung-jae Lee, Seng-ⅱ Lira, Bok-Shin. Alan. Service Restoration of Primary Distribution Systems Based on Fuzzy Evaluation of Multi-criteria. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1998, 13(3): 1156～1163.
[23] A.Augugliaro, L.Dusonchet, E.Riva Sasevvrino. Multi-objective Service Restoration in Distribution Network Using an Evolutionary approach and Fuzzy sets. Electric Power and Energy Systems. 2000(22): 103～110.
[24] 鄢长春，张焰，陈章潮，基于结点注入电流模型的配电网潮流算法，电力系统自动化，1999，23(17)：31～34．
[25] 王耀瑜，余贻鑫，分布式配电管理系统(DDMS)潮流分布式异步迭代算法，电力系统自动化，1996，20(3)：19～22．
[26] Vesna Borozan, Drgoslav Rajicic. Minimum Loss Reconfiguration Of Unbalanced Distribution Networks. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1997, 12(1): 435～441.
[27] 杨明皓，李云星，辐射型配电网实时潮流计算，电网技术，1999，23(5)：48～51．
[28] 刘莉，姚玉斌，陈学允，孙小平，10kv配电网拓扑结构的识别及使用潮流的计算，继电器，2000，28(2)：17～19．
[29] Carols Cheng, Dariash Shimohammadi. A Three-phrase Power Flow Method for Real-Time Distribution System Analysis. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1995, 10(2): 671～679.
[30] 黄单胢，配电自动化SCADA软件资产系统的研究和开关：[中国农业大学
硕士学位论文]，2002．
[31] 周震，陈星莺，不对称配电网络潮流计算的研究，江苏电机工程学报，2001，20(1)：11～13．
[32] R.Billinton,Pitaman著，周家启，任震译，电力系统可靠性评估．科学技术文献出版社，1986，6．
[33] 李生虎，电力系统可靠性评估的算法研究及软件设计：[合肥工业大学硕士学位论文]，2000，1．
[34] 徐钟济，蒙特卡罗方法，上海科学技术出版社，1985．
[35] 盛骤，谢式千，潘承毅，概率论与数理统计，高等教育出版社，1988．
[36] 南京大学数学系计算数学专业编，概率统计基础和概率统计方法，科学出版社，1979．
[37] 李生虎，丁明，杜雪樵，采用重点抽样方法的电力系统概率仿真，合肥工业大学学报，1999，22(6)：20～25．全国高校电力系统及其自动化专业第15届学术年会收录(1999．10，武汉)
[38] Tsai-hsiang Chen Mo-Shing Chen Kab-Ju Hwang etc. Distribution System Power Flow Analysis-A Rigid Approach. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1991, 6(3):1146～1152.
[39] 刘雅静，杨明皓，配电网三相潮流计算，电力系统及其自动化学报，2002，14(1)：59～63．
[40] 谈伟，张焰，蓝毓敏等，配电网故障后的供电恢复研究，中国电力，2000，33(12)：32～34．
[41] 颜萍，顾锦文，张广，一种快速高效的配电网供电恢复算法，电力系统自动化，2000，24(4)：52～56．
[42] IEEE Reliability Test System. IEEE Trans on Power Apparatus and System, 1979, Vol. PAS-98, No.6 Nov./Dec: 2047～2048.
[43] G. Tollefson, R. Billinton, G. Wacker, E.Chan, and J. Aweya. A Canadian Customer Survey to Assess Power System Reliability Worth. IEEE Trans. on Power System, 1994, 9(1): 443—450.
[44] R. Ghajar, R. Billinton, E.Chan. Distributed Nature of Residential Customer Outage Cost. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, 11(3): 1236～1244.
[45] R. Billinton, P. Wang. Reliability Worth of Distribution System Network Reinforcement Considering Dispersed Customer Cost Data. IEE Proc.-Gener. Trans. Distib., 1999, 146(3): 318～324.
[46] R. Billinton, J. Oteng-Adjei, R. Ghajar. Comparison of Two Alternate Methods to Establish An Interrupted Energy Assessment Rate. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1987, PWRS-2(3): 751～757.
[47] R. Billinton, P. Wang. Teaching Distribution System Reliability Evaluation Using Monte Carlo Simulation. 1999, 14(2): 397～403.
[48] 叶斌，可靠性效益评估算法及停电损失费用最小为目标的配网重构，西安交通大学，2003，3
[49] J.S. Wu, K.L. Tomsovic, C.S. Chen. A Heuristic Search Approach to Feeder Switching Operations For Overload, Faults, Unbalanced Flow And Maintenance. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1991, 6(4): 1579～1585.
[50] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton, I.Sjarief, etc. A Reliability Test System For Educational Purposes-basic Distribution System Data and Results. IEEE Trans. on Power System, 1991, 6 (2): 813～820.
[2] 别朝红，王锡凡，配电系统可靠性分析，中国电力，1997，30(5)：10～13．
[3] R.Billimon, EWang. Reliability-network-equivalent Approach to Distribution-system-reliability Evaluation. IEE Proc.-Gener. Trans. Distribution 1998, 145(2): 149～153.
[4] 万国成，任震，田翔，配电网可靠性评估的网络等值法模型研究．中国电机工程学报，电网技术，2003，23(5)：48～52．
[5] 别朝红，王秀丽，王锡凡，复杂配电系统的可靠性评估，西安交通大学学报，2000，34(8)：9～13．
[6] 夏岩，刘明波，邱朝明，带有复杂分支子馈线的配电系统可靠性评估，电力系统自动化，2002，26(4)：41～44．
[7] 杨文宇，余健明，同向前，基于最小割集的配电系统可靠性评估算法，西安交通大学学报，2001，17(4)：387～391．
[8] 李志明，李卫星，刘迎春，辐射状配电系统可靠性评估的故障遍历算法，电力系统自动化，2002，26(2)：53～56．
[9] 郭永基，Kofi，考虑容量约束的配电系统可靠性评估，电力系统自动化，2000，24(17)：48～51
[10] M.A.Kashem, V.Ganapathy, G.B, Jasmon. NetWork Reconfiguration for Load Balancing in Distribution networks. IEE Proceedings-Gener. Transm. Distrib., 1999, 146(6): 563～567.
[11] 王守相，王成山，一种隐含并行的大规模三相不平衡配电网络重构新算法．电力系统自动化，2000，24(19)：34～37．
[12] Qin Zhou, Dariush. Shirmohammadi et al. Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration for Operation Cost Reduction. IEEE Trans. on Power System, 1997, 12(2): 730～735.
[13] 邓佑满，张伯明，相年德，配电网络重构的改进最优潮流模式算法，电网技术，1995，19(7)：47～50．
[14] Y.H.Song , G.D.Wang , A.T.Johns , EY.Wang. Distribution Network Reconfiguration for Loss Reduction Using Fuzzy Controlled Evolutionary Programming. IEE Proceedings-Gener. Transm. Distrib., 1997, 144(4): 345～350.
[15] W.M.Lin, F.S.Cheng, M.T.Ysay. Distribution Feeder Reconfiguration with Refined Genetic Algorithm.2000, 147(6): 349～345.
[16] Aoki K, Nara K. A New Algorithm for Service Restoration Distribution System[J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1989.4(3) : 1832～1839.
[17] Susheela Devi V, Anandalingam G, Optimal Restoration for Power Supply in Large Distribution Systems in Developing Countries, IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1995, 10(1): 430～438.
[18] Karen Nan Miu, Hsiao-Dong Chiang. Fast Service Restoration Systems with Priority Customers and Constraints., IEEE Trans on Power System, 1998, 13(3): 789～795.
[19] H Serifi, A Swdighi, An Expert System Based Power System Restoration Procedure[J]. ETEP, 1998, 8(2): 48～51
[20] Auguliaro, L.Dusonchent, E.Riva Sanseverino. Service Restoration in Compensated Distribution Networks Using a Hybrid Genetic Algorithm. Electric Power Systems Research, 1998, 46: 59～66.
[21] Siqing Sheng, Youjiang Sun, Yan Liu, Wenqin Zhang, Yihan Yang. Random adaptive Optimizer restores Distribution Service. IEEE Computer Applications in Power. 2000, October: 48.
[22] Seung-jae Lee, Seng-ⅱ Lira, Bok-Shin. Alan. Service Restoration of Primary Distribution Systems Based on Fuzzy Evaluation of Multi-criteria. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1998, 13(3): 1156～1163.
[23] A.Augugliaro, L.Dusonchet, E.Riva Sasevvrino. Multi-objective Service Restoration in Distribution Network Using an Evolutionary approach and Fuzzy sets. Electric Power and Energy Systems. 2000(22): 103～110.
[24] 鄢长春，张焰，陈章潮，基于结点注入电流模型的配电网潮流算法，电力系统自动化，1999，23(17)：31～34．
[25] 王耀瑜，余贻鑫，分布式配电管理系统(DDMS)潮流分布式异步迭代算法，电力系统自动化，1996，20(3)：19～22．
[26] Vesna Borozan, Drgoslav Rajicic. Minimum Loss Reconfiguration Of Unbalanced Distribution Networks. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1997, 12(1): 435～441.
[27] 杨明皓，李云星，辐射型配电网实时潮流计算，电网技术，1999，23(5)：48～51．
[28] 刘莉，姚玉斌，陈学允，孙小平，10kv配电网拓扑结构的识别及使用潮流的计算，继电器，2000，28(2)：17～19．
[29] Carols Cheng, Dariash Shimohammadi. A Three-phrase Power Flow Method for Real-Time Distribution System Analysis. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1995, 10(2): 671～679.
[30] 黄单胢，配电自动化SCADA软件资产系统的研究和开关：[中国农业大学
硕士学位论文]，2002．
[31] 周震，陈星莺，不对称配电网络潮流计算的研究，江苏电机工程学报，2001，20(1)：11～13．
[32] R.Billinton,Pitaman著，周家启，任震译，电力系统可靠性评估．科学技术文献出版社，1986，6．
[33] 李生虎，电力系统可靠性评估的算法研究及软件设计：[合肥工业大学硕士学位论文]，2000，1．
[34] 徐钟济，蒙特卡罗方法，上海科学技术出版社，1985．
[35] 盛骤，谢式千，潘承毅，概率论与数理统计，高等教育出版社，1988．
[36] 南京大学数学系计算数学专业编，概率统计基础和概率统计方法，科学出版社，1979．
[37] 李生虎，丁明，杜雪樵，采用重点抽样方法的电力系统概率仿真，合肥工业大学学报，1999，22(6)：20～25．全国高校电力系统及其自动化专业第15届学术年会收录(1999．10，武汉)
[38] Tsai-hsiang Chen Mo-Shing Chen Kab-Ju Hwang etc. Distribution System Power Flow Analysis-A Rigid Approach. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1991, 6(3):1146～1152.
[39] 刘雅静，杨明皓，配电网三相潮流计算，电力系统及其自动化学报，2002，14(1)：59～63．
[40] 谈伟，张焰，蓝毓敏等，配电网故障后的供电恢复研究，中国电力，2000，33(12)：32～34．
[41] 颜萍，顾锦文，张广，一种快速高效的配电网供电恢复算法，电力系统自动化，2000，24(4)：52～56．
[42] IEEE Reliability Test System. IEEE Trans on Power Apparatus and System, 1979, Vol. PAS-98, No.6 Nov./Dec: 2047～2048.
[43] G. Tollefson, R. Billinton, G. Wacker, E.Chan, and J. Aweya. A Canadian Customer Survey to Assess Power System Reliability Worth. IEEE Trans. on Power System, 1994, 9(1): 443—450.
[44] R. Ghajar, R. Billinton, E.Chan. Distributed Nature of Residential Customer Outage Cost. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1996, 11(3): 1236～1244.
[45] R. Billinton, P. Wang. Reliability Worth of Distribution System Network Reinforcement Considering Dispersed Customer Cost Data. IEE Proc.-Gener. Trans. Distib., 1999, 146(3): 318～324.
[46] R. Billinton, J. Oteng-Adjei, R. Ghajar. Comparison of Two Alternate Methods to Establish An Interrupted Energy Assessment Rate. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1987, PWRS-2(3): 751～757.
[47] R. Billinton, P. Wang. Teaching Distribution System Reliability Evaluation Using Monte Carlo Simulation. 1999, 14(2): 397～403.
[48] 叶斌，可靠性效益评估算法及停电损失费用最小为目标的配网重构，西安交通大学，2003，3
[49] J.S. Wu, K.L. Tomsovic, C.S. Chen. A Heuristic Search Approach to Feeder Switching Operations For Overload, Faults, Unbalanced Flow And Maintenance. IEEE Trans. on Power Delivery, 1991, 6(4): 1579～1585.
[50] R.N.Allan, R.Billinton, I.Sjarief, etc. A Reliability Test System For Educational Purposes-basic Distribution System Data and Results. IEEE Trans. on Power System, 1991, 6 (2): 813～820.