大连湾海域溢油漂移动态应急预测系统研究
摘要
作为中国东北地区重要的海上航运中心区域,大连湾海域近年来重大溢油事故频繁发生,不仅造成天然渔业、水产养殖业和旅游业的巨大经济损失,而且严重破坏海洋生态环境。因此,必须建立和完善溢油污染事故应急反应体系,以迅速有效地对溢油事故进行处理。其中,开发海上溢油漂移动态预测信息系统,可以为应急反应指挥者提供准确、直观图形显示的辅助决策支持,有利于减少溢油事故对海洋生态环境和社会经济的损害影响,这有着重要的现实意义。
本文首先详细剖析了海上溢油污染事故对海洋生态环境以及社会经济的损害影响。其次,在分析海上溢油行为动态的基础上,对影响海上溢油行为变化的海面风、潮流、风海流等环境动力因素进行研究;在国内外相关研究基础上,建立了基于拉格朗日“油粒子”概念的海上溢油行为动态数值模型,可以模拟溢油的漂移、扩散、蒸发、乳化等主要运动和风化过程。此外,文中介绍了大连湾海域的航运环境及自然条件,也分析了敏感资源区域受到油码头溢油的污染风险。
最后,针对大连湾海域特点建立了“大连湾海域溢油漂移动态预测信息系统”,该系统具有地理信息系统(GIS)、溢油应急反应信息查询、海上溢油漂移扩散数值预测模拟及结果图形可视化显示等功能。应用该系统对“阿提哥”溢油事故进行案例模拟,模拟结果与实际调查报告基本吻合,也表明该系统能够在实际溢油事故应急反应中提供有效辅助决策支持。
Dalian port is one of the most important shipping centers in north east China. In recent years, many large oil spill accidents happened in Dalian bay water, which resulted in great economic losses in natural fishery, aquaculture and tourism, and also brought great harm to the ocean ecology environment. Therefore, it's necessary to establish and perfect the oil spill emergency response mechanism, and develop the oil spill trajectory forecast model and software system, to provide accurate and graphical decision-making support to the emergency responder to minimize the damage and loss caused by the oil spill accidents.
In this paper, the damage effects on both the ocean ecology environment and the social economy resulting from marine oil spill accidents were introduced in detail. Based on the analysis of the behavior of spilled oil at sea, the environmental dynamic factors such as wind, tidal current and wind-driven current were studied. Based on the research of the numerical modeling theories and methods on the spilled oil at sea, a Lagrange oil-particle concept based oil spill trajectory numerical model, which can simulate several important transportation and weathering processes such as advection, spreading, evaporation and emulsification, etc., was built. Besides, both the nature and shipping conditions of Dalian bay were presented, and the risks of oil spills in the sensitive resource areas were also analyzed.
At the end, an oil spill trajectory forecast information system for the Dalian bay was developed. The system has many functions such as the geographic information system (GIS), oil spill emergency response information inquiring, and numerical prediction of the oil spill trajectory, and dynamic graphical display of simulation results. The system was applied to simulate the Arteaga oil spill accident happened in Dalian bay, it shows that the simulation results are well agreed with the field investigation report, and it's feasible that the system can be used in actual oil spill accident emergency response to provide the effective decision-making supports.
本文首先详细剖析了海上溢油污染事故对海洋生态环境以及社会经济的损害影响。其次,在分析海上溢油行为动态的基础上,对影响海上溢油行为变化的海面风、潮流、风海流等环境动力因素进行研究;在国内外相关研究基础上,建立了基于拉格朗日“油粒子”概念的海上溢油行为动态数值模型,可以模拟溢油的漂移、扩散、蒸发、乳化等主要运动和风化过程。此外,文中介绍了大连湾海域的航运环境及自然条件,也分析了敏感资源区域受到油码头溢油的污染风险。
最后,针对大连湾海域特点建立了“大连湾海域溢油漂移动态预测信息系统”,该系统具有地理信息系统(GIS)、溢油应急反应信息查询、海上溢油漂移扩散数值预测模拟及结果图形可视化显示等功能。应用该系统对“阿提哥”溢油事故进行案例模拟,模拟结果与实际调查报告基本吻合,也表明该系统能够在实际溢油事故应急反应中提供有效辅助决策支持。
Dalian port is one of the most important shipping centers in north east China. In recent years, many large oil spill accidents happened in Dalian bay water, which resulted in great economic losses in natural fishery, aquaculture and tourism, and also brought great harm to the ocean ecology environment. Therefore, it's necessary to establish and perfect the oil spill emergency response mechanism, and develop the oil spill trajectory forecast model and software system, to provide accurate and graphical decision-making support to the emergency responder to minimize the damage and loss caused by the oil spill accidents.
In this paper, the damage effects on both the ocean ecology environment and the social economy resulting from marine oil spill accidents were introduced in detail. Based on the analysis of the behavior of spilled oil at sea, the environmental dynamic factors such as wind, tidal current and wind-driven current were studied. Based on the research of the numerical modeling theories and methods on the spilled oil at sea, a Lagrange oil-particle concept based oil spill trajectory numerical model, which can simulate several important transportation and weathering processes such as advection, spreading, evaporation and emulsification, etc., was built. Besides, both the nature and shipping conditions of Dalian bay were presented, and the risks of oil spills in the sensitive resource areas were also analyzed.
At the end, an oil spill trajectory forecast information system for the Dalian bay was developed. The system has many functions such as the geographic information system (GIS), oil spill emergency response information inquiring, and numerical prediction of the oil spill trajectory, and dynamic graphical display of simulation results. The system was applied to simulate the Arteaga oil spill accident happened in Dalian bay, it shows that the simulation results are well agreed with the field investigation report, and it's feasible that the system can be used in actual oil spill accident emergency response to provide the effective decision-making supports.
引文
[1]http://www.moc.gov.cn/jiaotongjj/zhiboting/chuanyuantl/wenzisl/200706/t20070618_278240.htm
[2]劳辉.最近29年我国沿海船舶、码头溢油50吨以上事故统计.交通环保.2003,24(6):46.
[3]赵文芳.海上溢油污染的危害与防治措施.安全、健康和环境.2006,6(9):25-26
[4]http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/qttjgb/qgqttjgb/t20070430_402402691.htm
[5]2006年大连市环境公报.大连市环境保护局.2006.
[6]http://news3.xinhuanet.com/video/2007-06/01/content_6184093_1.htm
[7]北方海区溢油应急计划.中华人民共和国海事局.2000.
[8]大连海区水域污染应急计划.大连市政府.2003.
[9]殷佩海.港口船舶防污染技术.大连:大连海事大学出版社.2000.
[10]李连健.珠江口水域溢油信息系统的研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学.2002
[11]田立杰,张瑞安.海洋油污染对海洋生态环境的影响.海洋湖沼通报.1999,(2):65-69.
[12]赵冬至,张存智,徐恒振,等.海洋溢油灾害应急响应技术研究.北京:海洋出版社.2006.
[13]韩康,张存智,张砚峰,等.大连湾及附近海域潮流场数值模拟.海洋通报.1994,13(4):20-25.
[14]韩康 张存智,张砚峰,等.大连湾潮交换能力的数值研究.海洋通报.1996,15(2):86-91.
[15]吴冠,张波,张砚峰,等.溢油应急系统中的潮流快速预报.海洋环境科学.1997,16(1):42-44
[16]雷孝平,朱国林,陆凤桐.大连湾潮流和潮位的数值计算.大连海事大学学报.1998,24(3):40-44
[17]Fay J A.Physical processes in the spread of oil on water surface,Proceeding of the joint Conf.on the prevention and control of oil spills,15-17,June 1971,Pub1 by API,463- 467.
[18]Stiver W,Mackay D.Evaporation rate of spills of hydrocarbon and petroleum mixtures.Environmental Science and Technology,1984,(18):834-840.
[19]Mark Reed.(?)istien Johnson,Per Johan Brandvik,et al.Oil Spill Modeling towards the Close of 20th Century:Overview of the State of the Art.Spill Science & Technology Bulletin,1999,5(1):3-16.
[20]杨庆霄.海洋石油污染及其防治技术的研究.北京:国家海洋环境保护研究所,1996.
[21]张存智,窦振兴,韩康,等.三维溢油动态预报模式.海洋环境科学.1997,16(1):22-29.
[22]王长海.溢油漂移扩散计算模式初步研究.交通环保.2000,21(2):7-9.
[23]郭秀斌,殷佩海.大连湾溢油动态的监测模式.大连海运学院学报.1994,20(3):26-32
[24]孙长青,赵可胜,郭耀同.渤海湾海面溢油数值计算.海洋科学.2003,27(11):63-67.
[25]严志宇,熊德琪,殷佩海.海上溢油风化模型评述.大连海事大学学报.2001,27(4):36-39.
[26]Qiao Bing.Oil spill model development and application of emergency response system.Journal of Environmental Sciences,2001,13(2):252-256.
[27]朱国林.大连湾易溶保守液体化学品污染扩散的数值计算:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学.1998.
[28]大连港务局.大连港油码头溢油应急决策支持支持系统技术研究报告.2002.
[29]孙维维.大连新港海区油船溢油风险总体评价初探:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学.2006.
[30]Anderson E L.The OILMAP Win/WOSM oil spill model:Application to hindcast a river spill.In Proceeding of the 18th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program,Technical Seminar,Edmonton,Alberta,Canada:1995.793-817
[31]Leech M.OSIS:A Windows Oil Spill Information System,In Proceeding of the 16th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program,Technical Seminar,Calgary,Alberta,Canada.1983,5(1):27-30
[32]Reed M,Ekrol N,Rye H,et al.Oil Spill Contingency and Response(OSCAR)Analysis in Support of Environmental Impact Offshore Namibia.Spill Science and Technology Bulletin.1999,5(1):29-38.
[33]窦振兴,宫成,张存智,等.海上溢油动态预测应急系统.中国海洋平台.1995,10(5):204-206.
[34]张波.中文Windows环境下的海上溢油预报系统.海洋环境科学.1997,16(1):37-41.
[35]殷佩海,任福安.海上溢油应急反应专家系统.交通环保.1996,(2):14-17.
[36]熊德琪,杜川,赵德祥,等.大连海域溢油应急预报信息系统及其应用.交通环保.2002,23(3):5-8.
[37]刘彦呈,殷佩海,林建国,等.基于GIS的海上溢油扩散和漂移的预测研究.大连海事大学学报.2002,28(3):41-44.
[38]刘彦呈,袁士春,林建国,等.海上溢油应急反应地理信息系统的开发.大连海事大学学报.2001,27(2):42-45.
[39]刘彦呈,袁士春,孙才勤,等.海上溢油应急反应电子海图系统的研制开发.世界海运.2001,24(3):38-39.
[40]http://www.daliandaily.com.cn/gb/daliandaily/2005-04/29/content_740249.htm
[41]金永福,熊德琪.GPS/GSM/GIS海上溢油跟踪监测系统的研究.交通环保.2003,24(6):6-8.
[42]安居白,张永宁.发达国家海上溢油遥感监测现状分析.交通环保.2002,23(3):27-29.
[43]丛旭东,赵如箱,王淑美.卫星遥感在溢油监视中的应用.交通环保.2003,24(12):23-25.
[2]劳辉.最近29年我国沿海船舶、码头溢油50吨以上事故统计.交通环保.2003,24(6):46.
[3]赵文芳.海上溢油污染的危害与防治措施.安全、健康和环境.2006,6(9):25-26
[4]http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/qttjgb/qgqttjgb/t20070430_402402691.htm
[5]2006年大连市环境公报.大连市环境保护局.2006.
[6]http://news3.xinhuanet.com/video/2007-06/01/content_6184093_1.htm
[7]北方海区溢油应急计划.中华人民共和国海事局.2000.
[8]大连海区水域污染应急计划.大连市政府.2003.
[9]殷佩海.港口船舶防污染技术.大连:大连海事大学出版社.2000.
[10]李连健.珠江口水域溢油信息系统的研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学.2002
[11]田立杰,张瑞安.海洋油污染对海洋生态环境的影响.海洋湖沼通报.1999,(2):65-69.
[12]赵冬至,张存智,徐恒振,等.海洋溢油灾害应急响应技术研究.北京:海洋出版社.2006.
[13]韩康,张存智,张砚峰,等.大连湾及附近海域潮流场数值模拟.海洋通报.1994,13(4):20-25.
[14]韩康 张存智,张砚峰,等.大连湾潮交换能力的数值研究.海洋通报.1996,15(2):86-91.
[15]吴冠,张波,张砚峰,等.溢油应急系统中的潮流快速预报.海洋环境科学.1997,16(1):42-44
[16]雷孝平,朱国林,陆凤桐.大连湾潮流和潮位的数值计算.大连海事大学学报.1998,24(3):40-44
[17]Fay J A.Physical processes in the spread of oil on water surface,Proceeding of the joint Conf.on the prevention and control of oil spills,15-17,June 1971,Pub1 by API,463- 467.
[18]Stiver W,Mackay D.Evaporation rate of spills of hydrocarbon and petroleum mixtures.Environmental Science and Technology,1984,(18):834-840.
[19]Mark Reed.(?)istien Johnson,Per Johan Brandvik,et al.Oil Spill Modeling towards the Close of 20th Century:Overview of the State of the Art.Spill Science & Technology Bulletin,1999,5(1):3-16.
[20]杨庆霄.海洋石油污染及其防治技术的研究.北京:国家海洋环境保护研究所,1996.
[21]张存智,窦振兴,韩康,等.三维溢油动态预报模式.海洋环境科学.1997,16(1):22-29.
[22]王长海.溢油漂移扩散计算模式初步研究.交通环保.2000,21(2):7-9.
[23]郭秀斌,殷佩海.大连湾溢油动态的监测模式.大连海运学院学报.1994,20(3):26-32
[24]孙长青,赵可胜,郭耀同.渤海湾海面溢油数值计算.海洋科学.2003,27(11):63-67.
[25]严志宇,熊德琪,殷佩海.海上溢油风化模型评述.大连海事大学学报.2001,27(4):36-39.
[26]Qiao Bing.Oil spill model development and application of emergency response system.Journal of Environmental Sciences,2001,13(2):252-256.
[27]朱国林.大连湾易溶保守液体化学品污染扩散的数值计算:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学.1998.
[28]大连港务局.大连港油码头溢油应急决策支持支持系统技术研究报告.2002.
[29]孙维维.大连新港海区油船溢油风险总体评价初探:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连海事大学.2006.
[30]Anderson E L.The OILMAP Win/WOSM oil spill model:Application to hindcast a river spill.In Proceeding of the 18th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program,Technical Seminar,Edmonton,Alberta,Canada:1995.793-817
[31]Leech M.OSIS:A Windows Oil Spill Information System,In Proceeding of the 16th Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program,Technical Seminar,Calgary,Alberta,Canada.1983,5(1):27-30
[32]Reed M,Ekrol N,Rye H,et al.Oil Spill Contingency and Response(OSCAR)Analysis in Support of Environmental Impact Offshore Namibia.Spill Science and Technology Bulletin.1999,5(1):29-38.
[33]窦振兴,宫成,张存智,等.海上溢油动态预测应急系统.中国海洋平台.1995,10(5):204-206.
[34]张波.中文Windows环境下的海上溢油预报系统.海洋环境科学.1997,16(1):37-41.
[35]殷佩海,任福安.海上溢油应急反应专家系统.交通环保.1996,(2):14-17.
[36]熊德琪,杜川,赵德祥,等.大连海域溢油应急预报信息系统及其应用.交通环保.2002,23(3):5-8.
[37]刘彦呈,殷佩海,林建国,等.基于GIS的海上溢油扩散和漂移的预测研究.大连海事大学学报.2002,28(3):41-44.
[38]刘彦呈,袁士春,林建国,等.海上溢油应急反应地理信息系统的开发.大连海事大学学报.2001,27(2):42-45.
[39]刘彦呈,袁士春,孙才勤,等.海上溢油应急反应电子海图系统的研制开发.世界海运.2001,24(3):38-39.
[40]http://www.daliandaily.com.cn/gb/daliandaily/2005-04/29/content_740249.htm
[41]金永福,熊德琪.GPS/GSM/GIS海上溢油跟踪监测系统的研究.交通环保.2003,24(6):6-8.
[42]安居白,张永宁.发达国家海上溢油遥感监测现状分析.交通环保.2002,23(3):27-29.
[43]丛旭东,赵如箱,王淑美.卫星遥感在溢油监视中的应用.交通环保.2003,24(12):23-25.