中国少数民族地区金融排斥研究
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摘要
“金融排斥”这个概念是社会发展到一定阶段的产物,它首先在英美等金融化程度较高的国家提出并得到广泛运用。借鉴西方理论,结合我国实际问题,研究金融排斥的形成机理、影响效应以及解决途径既是遭受金融排斥人群或区域的强烈要求,同时也是中国社会继续向前发展的时代需要。我国正处于社会转轨的关键时期,城乡差距、贫富分化以及区域发展不平衡等问题正日益成为我国社会继续向前发展的绊脚石。金融排斥正是这些社会不平衡在金融领域的表现,同时也是这些不平衡的原因和结果。目前国内关于金融排斥的文献主要以城乡二元结构为背景,对农村金融排斥以及城乡金融排斥差别展开研究;或者从农户和城市居民等微观个体出发,对贫富差距与金融排斥的关系进行探讨;相对而言,从区域发展不平衡角度研究金融排斥的文献较为少见。
     我国是一个统一的多民族国家。加快少数民族地区的经济社会发展,是全面建设小康社会的重要组成部分,对于巩固民族团结、维护社会稳定、缩小地区差异都具有重要的战略意义。而推进民族地区发展离不开金融体系的支持。但由于历史及现实原因,我国民族地区一直是金融服务可获得性薄弱的区域,金融排斥现象较为普遍和严重。因此,本文选择区域发展不平衡的角度,以我国民族地区为研究对象,在系统梳理金融排斥理论和民族地区金融发展文献的基础上,使用省、县两级经济金融数据,对民族地区金融排斥的现状、影响因素及其导致的后果进行了规范和实证的探索,并为民族地区治理金融排斥提出了对策建议。研究的主要结论如下:
     (1)总体而言,我国少数民族地区金融排斥的现状有喜有忧,但相对来说,民族地区金融排斥状况依然严峻,亟待治理。对民族地区金融网点分布的分析表明:民族地区金融网点的地理分布密度极低,但人口分布密度基本达到全国平均水平;各级农村信用社、国有商业银行以及邮政储蓄机构这三大传统金融主体几乎垄断了民族地区的金融供给;股份制商业银行在市场机制的作用下远离民族地区;城市信用社和农村信用社的股份制改革步伐严重落后;政策性金融对民族地区有所倾斜;合作金融、新型农村机构尤其是村镇银行和农村资金互助社在民族地区发展较快。对民族地区金融从业人员的分析表明:民族地区金融从业人员数总体偏少;但从服务人员的角度来看,民族地区的企业享受金融服务的状况好于民族地区的居民,民族地区营销排斥更多地表现为对个人的排斥。对民族地区金融机构存贷款的分析表明:民族地区存贷款总量偏低,金融发展水平滞后于全国水平;但民族地区信贷资金外流的现象总体上有所缓解;在民族地区信贷市场上,国有商业银行居于绝对的主导地位,政策性金融是资金供给的重要途径,邮政储蓄机构、城市商业银行及城市信用社则是民族地区资金外流的主要渠道。从金融排斥的综合情况来看,民族地区金融排斥的程度整体上高于汉族地区。从金融排斥的演变趋势来看,近年来随着我国金融改革的深入,我国金融排斥的现象有所缓解,但与汉族地区或全国相比,民族地区金融排斥的下降趋势明显较弱。这表明相对来说,我国民族地区的金融排斥状况依然严峻,亟待治理。
     (2)金融排斥是一个系统性问题,其影响因素涉及政治、经济、社会、文化等各个方面,因此,民族地区治理金融排斥不能照搬发达国家或地区的经验,而应该从民族地区实际出发,对症下药。在经济金融方面,居民收入水平越高、居民就业状况越好、城镇化程度越高、金融业竞争越充分、金融基础设施越完善,则当地金融排斥程度越低。其中,金融业竞争程度是本文引入并考察的一个重要因素,它与金融排斥显著负相关,说明表面上看民族地区相对严峻的金融排斥好像是国有银行网点撤并的结果,但实际上这更可能是由于该撤的撤了,该进的没进,进而使民族地区金融市场的竞争不足所致。在社会文化方面,居民受教育水平越高、商业文化环境越好、穆斯林教徒越少,则当地金融排斥程度越低。各因素与金融排斥显著相关,充分说明了金融排斥不仅受经济因素的影响,还与社会文化等多个方面密切相关,同时也在一定程度上证明了金融排斥是社会排斥的一个子集,受到其他方面社会排斥的人群往往也被金融系统所排斥。其中,宗教信仰是本文引入的一个重要因素,它与金融排斥显著正相关,说明信仰伊斯兰教的地区遭受了更为严重的金融排斥,这为宗教等文化因素对区域金融发展的影响提供了经验证据。在政府规制方面,政府的支持在减轻金融排斥中能发挥正向作用,并且政府的工作效率越高,这种作用越明显。
     (3)金融排斥给地区经济发展和居民增收带来诸多负面影响,治理金融排斥、提高金融包容势在必行,但在民族地区,金融包容程度的提高伴随着金融风险的增加,因此,民族地区治理金融排斥的关键问题是怎样在提高金融包容的同时又有效地防范好金融风险。民族地区金融排斥对经济发展影响的实证分析结果表明:民族地区的金融排斥阻碍了产业结构的优化升级,对民族地区经济有明显的抑制作用;但金融宽度的拓展对经济的促进作用可能是一个长期的过程,金融排斥的缓解并不能提高当期或下一期的GDP增长率,由于治理金融排斥无法取得立竿见影的效果,因而很难对地方官员产生激励,在一定程度上反映出民族地区治理金融排斥任务的艰巨性。民族地区金融排斥对居民收入影响的实证分析结果表明:民族地区的金融排斥对居民收入水平的提高有明显的抑制作用;但金融排斥的加深不仅没有扩大收入分配差距,反而使城乡收入差距显著缩小,这一结果与已有文献的结论相悖,既说明了我国民族地区还处在库兹涅茨倒U曲线的左边部分,即金融市场不发达的初期阶段,又说明了在金融排斥严重的民族地区,金融排斥是一种整体排斥,不仅农村居民无法获得信贷服务,相对富裕的城镇居民也同样面临严重的信贷供给约束,这种收入差距缩小的结果不是共同富裕,而是共同贫穷。民族地区金融包容及其各维度与金融风险关系的实证分析结果表明:民族地区金融包容程度的提高会引起金融风险的显著上升;但良好的法制和中介环境能有效地化解金融包容带来的风险;分解到金融包容各维度,人均贷款水平与金融风险显著正相关,说明民族地区金融机构的风险管理水平较低,跟不上信贷规模增长的要求;地区金融机构存贷比也与金融风险显著正相关,说明民族地区获得贷款的企业或个人合理使用信贷资金的能力较弱,金融机构若将资金大量投放于当地会面临较高的风险;另外,县域金融机构的贷款权限越大,金融风险越低,相反,贷款权限的上收反而增加了风险,这意味着上收贷款权限的政策并没有达到预期效果,反而事与愿违。
     (4)民族地区治理金融排斥正确的思路应该是,在政府的积极引导下,合理引入金融业竞争,既扩大金融服务的覆盖度,同时又防范好风险并提升金融需求主体理性决策的能力。导致金融排斥的原因复杂多样,因此治理金融排斥是一个系统性工作,需要金融机构、需求主体以及政府等相关利益各方的共同努力,其中,政府应适度高效地发挥引导作用;民族地区金融市场的合理竞争将促使金融机构在市场机制的作用下提升经营管理水平,拓展金融服务范围,挖掘民族地区的利润点。
The concept of financial exclusion is the product of the society entering a certain stage. It was first proposed by the countries just as Britain and the United States with a high degree of finance and widely used. Learning from western theories and contacting our actual, we studies the formation mechanism, the effects and the solution of financial exclusion in order to not only meet the strong demand of the population or regional suffering from financial exclusion, bust also meet the demand of our China society continue to develop further and further. China is in a transition period. The problems of urban-rural gap, polarization between the rich and the poor, unbalanced regional development and so on are increasingly become a stumbling block to the further development of our society. Financial exclusion is not only the expression but also the cause and effect of the unbalanced society. Up till the present moment, some domestic financial exclusion of literature mainly with the background of the urban-rural dualistic structure focused on the financial exclusion in rural and the difference of urban and rural financial exclusion. Others may focus on the relationship of the gap between the rich and the poor and financial exclusion in the view of microcosmic individuals just as farmers and urban residents. Relatively speaking, the financial exclusion of literature from the point of view of the unbalanced economic and social development among different regions is rare.
     China is a unitary multinational country. Ensuring rapid economic growth in minority areas is the important part of All-round Construction of Well-off Society. It also has important tactic significance to consolidate the great unity among ethnic groups, maintain social stability and reduce the regional disparity. We can't ensure rapid economic growth in minority areas without the support from financial system. Owing to historical reasons, it is always difficult to get financial services and financial exclusion is widespread and serious in minority areas. So the paper from the point of view of the unbalanced economic and social development among different regions combs theories of financial exclusion and literatures on the development of the finance in minority areas thoroughly. We study the minority areas in our country using the financial data at provincial level or county level.In the paper, we explore the current situation, influencing factors and aftereffects of financial exclusion in minority areas both normative analysis and positive analysis applied. And so we throw out some suggestions to treat financial exclusion in minority areas. The main conclusions are as follows.
     (1) Overall, there are joys and worries for the current situation of financial exclusion in minority areas. But relatively speaking, the current situation of financial exclusion in minority areas is very serious and urged to treatment. The analysis of the distribution of financial branches in minority areas shows that:The financial branches distribution density is very low, but the population density reaches the national average level; Rural Credit Cooperatives, State-owned Commercial Banks and Postal savings institutions almost monopolize the financial supply of the market in minority areas; Shareholding commercial banks are far away from the minority areas by market mechanism; The reform to institute a stockholding system in Rural Credit Cooperatives lag behind fails to keep up a pace; Those policy-banking institutions lean to the minority areas;The cooperative finance, new rural financial institution especially village banks and rural mutual cooperatives increase rapidly in minority areas. The analysis of the financial practitioners in minority areas shows that:The number of financial practitioners in minority areas is less than the normal; but in the view of the financial service, enterprises get better financial service than residents in minority areas. The marketing exclusion more or less behaves as the exclusion to individuals. The analysis of deposits and loans of financial institutions in minority areas shows that: The total of deposits and loans of financial institutions in minority areas is in a low level, the financial development is below the national average level; But the outflow of credit funds in minority areas is weak in all; State-owned Commercial Banks hold a leading post in Credit Market of minority areas, and those policy-banking institutions play a role of providing the funds. Postal savings institutions, Urban Commercial Banks and Urban Credit Cooperatives are the main channels through which the funds in minority areas flow out. Judging from the whole financial exclusion in our country, the degree of financial exclusion in minority areas is higher than which in other areas. From the trends of financial exclusion's evolution, financial exclusion in our country is allayed with the deepening of financial reform in recent years in China. But compared with other areas or the whole country, a downward trend to financial exclusion in minority areas is obviously weaker. All of those indicate that the current situation of financial exclusion in minority areas is still very serious and should be urged to treatment.
     (2) Financial exclusion is a systematic problem. The influencing factors include in Politics, economy and culture and so on. So the solution to financial exclusion in minority areas can not only copy the experience of the developed countries. We must give a correct solution based on the development of the minority areas themselves. At the aspect of economy and finance, the higher level of incomes f residents, the better status of the employment, the higher degree of urbanization, the fuller competition of finance and the more perfect financial facilities indicate the degree of the financial exclusion is low. The competition of finance is a very important factor in the paper. It appears in an obvious negative correlation with financial exclusion. This result indicates that the serious financial exclusion seems as the consequence of decreasing the branches of State-owned Commercial Banks, but in fact, the financial exclusion are more likely caused by the lack of financial market competition in minority areas. At the aspect of society and culture, the higher level of education, the thicker commercial culture and the less of Muslim make the less financial exclusion. All above factors are positively related to financial exclusion, which indicates not only the economy but also the development of society and culture can influence the degree of financial exclusion. Among the factors, the variety of faith plays an important role, which is positively related to financial exclusion. It shows that the Islamic areas suffer from more exclusion of finance. At the aspect of governmental regulation, the support of local government can relieve the financial exclusion, and the more efficient government work leads to the less financial exclusion.
     (3) Financial exclusion has negative impacts on the development of local economy and the increasing of residents' incomes. So we should take measures to relieve financial exclusion and enhance financial inclusion. But in minority areas, the financial risk may increase with financial inclusion. Therefore, the key problem of governing financial exclusion is how to build a risk prevention mechanism in the process of enhancing financial inclusion. The empirical analysis of financial exclusion's impact on the development of economy in minority areas shows that:financial exclusion hinders the upgrade of industries structure and causes the less economic aggregate; but the relief of financial exclusion cannot bring a higher growth rate immediately, it may take a long time to achieve obvious effect on economic development, so many local officials have little interest in governing financial exclusion. The empirical analysis of financial exclusion's impact on the residents'incomes in minority areas shows that:financial exclusion inhibits the increase of resident income obviously; but it doesn't widen the gap in income distribution, on the contrary, it narrows the gap. This result is different from that in other existent documents, which indicates that the financial market in minority area is still in the early stages of development and it's hard for both urban and rural resident to access to essential finance service. The empirical analysis of financial inclusion'impact on financial risk in minority areas shows that:the financial risk increases with the improving of financial inclusion; but a favorable legal and intermediary environment can prevent and reduce the financial risks effectively.
     (4) In order to relieve the financial exclusion in minority areas, local government should bring in competitive system for financial institutions in these areas. On the one hand, the coverage of finance service should be widened, on the other hand, the decision-making capability of customers should be improved and the financial risk should be controlled too. We believe that under the promptings of market competition the coverage of finance service will be widened and the management level of financial institutions in minority areas will also be upgraded.
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