经济发展方式转变与公司财务行为选择
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摘要
改革开放30多年中国经济以近10%的速度发展,经济总量已跃居全球第二,令世界瞩目。与此同时,中国经济发展也面临了新的问题与挑战：不仅由于美国金融危机和接踵而来的欧洲主权债务危机影响到包括中国在内的全球经济的发展,中国自身经济发展方式也存在着一系列不可忽视的问题。随着我国经济总量的扩大,经济要素的稀缺格局发生了重大变化,土地、矿产、水等自然资源越来越短缺,资源环境对经济发展的制约作用越来越突出。生产要素供求关系的变化,不仅要求从社会经济发展的动力、结构、质量、效率、就业、分配、消费、生态和环境等方面进行调整,而且要求作为微观基础的公司必须适应新的变化改变自身的生存与发展方式,相应地在资源利用、能源耗费、人力成本、科技创新、市场开发等方方面面重新作出定位。
这些宏观层面经济政策的调整和微观公司行为的改变都属于经济发展方式转变的一部分。然而,虽然目前很多人从宏观经济角度研究经济发展方式转变,但是鲜有人以公司财务行为选择来研究经济发展方式转变。从这个基本认识出发,本文试图在系统梳理经济发展方式转变和公司财务选择行为的基础上,着重探讨公司财务行为选择在宏观经济背景下的调整与改变,实证检验我国宏观经济政策对微观财务行为选择的影响,并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。
本文除导论外共分为五个部分：
第一部分：文献综述。该部分通过对经济发展方式转变和财务行为理论及其实证的研究所涉及的相关内容分析,回顾了国内相关的研究角度。从理论基础上对前人提出的思想进行回顾,并对现在学术界相关学者的观点进行评述。
第二部分：经济发展方式转变及其对公司财务行为选择的影响。本章主要阐述了我国经济发展方式转变对公司财务行为选择的影响因素、利益冲突以及改变路径等。其中,对当前背景下公司财务行为选择的价值取向、风险收益以及社会责任等均作了理论分析,不仅阐述了影响公司财务行为选择价值取向的内外部因素,讨论了公司财务行为选择价值与经济发展方式转变间的关系,还从风险和收益的传统财务角度出发探讨了在经济发展方式转变过程中公司核心价值观的转变对公司财务理念以及财务政策的影响,明确了在经济转型过程中公司财务政策与社会责任的定位。
第三部分：公司财务行为方式：描述性分析。本章主要运用描述统计分析的方法分行业探讨了我国公司财务行为特征。其中,对于公司的融资行为特征主要通过资产负债率以及相关的财务指标进行分析,从中发现近10年我国公司的资产负债率处于逐步上升态势,其中房地产行业的上升趋势最为明显。而对于公司的投资行为来说,投资非效率问题仍然是目前面临的主要问题。
第四部分：公司财务行为选择：实证分析。本章基于最优资本结构以及最优投资模型进行模型设计,运用实证研究方法,分析了我国宏观经济因素对于公司投融资主要财务行为选择的影响。从中发现,经济周期对各行业公司的投融资影响普遍显著,而货币供应量、税收以及利率的影响则与行业相关。对公司财务行为解释力最小的是我国的信贷规模。
第五部分：研究结论与启示。本章对全文的研究进行了归纳,梳理出主要结论,为我国的宏观政策提出建议,并探讨了研究的局限性以及后续研究的方向。
本文所涉及的是一个战略性、前瞻性和现实性都很强的研究领域,也是一个跨学科交叉的新的研究领域。本文试图在以下方面形成自己的特色,并实现创新。
第一,从研究视角看。已有公司财务研究大多基于微观的视角和传统的分析框架,虽然也注重对宏观经济环境的分析考量,但多囿于表象的理论推演层面。本文着力在“宏观经济环境”与“公司财务行为”的“契合点”上下功夫,将公司财务行为选择置入经济发展方式转变的大背景下,探讨经济发展方式转变下公司财务行为的模式、价值取向和特征,这无疑为本研究、也为后续研究者提供了一个新的研究视角和分析框架。
第二,从研究设计看。本文构建了基于宏观经济因素来研究公司财务行为的动态投融资模型,并发现了影响公司财务行为的主要宏观经济指标,凸显了重要的政策价值和决策基础。同时,本文构建的模型在引入宏观层面和微观层面因素的基础上,采用了动态面板数据进行模型估计,不仅考虑宏观经济政策因素对公司投融资行为的直接影响,还考虑其对投融资行为速率变动的间接影响。尤其是,本文在对模型进行实证检验时,把“行业特征”作为影响公司财务行为的重要因素加以考量,有利于揭示行业特征变量导致的资本结构和投资非效率问题。
第三,从研究发现看。本文提出了一些具有较强政策意义的观点或结论,其中最主要的有三点：(1)在我国经济发展方式转变的背景下,宏观经济因素是影响公司财务行为选择的的重要考量,不仅决定了公司外部的资本供给,还影响公司财务行为选择的价值取向以及违约风险等。(2)转变经济发展方式的关键,在于引导公司进行不同的财务行为选择,对于不同的行业应当区别对待,通过制定相应的经济政策,改变公司外部环境约束,优化公司财务行为,进而促进或实现公司转型；(3)转变经济发展方式的着力点,在于不断增强公司适应市场经济发展的要求创新能力,而不是单纯依靠减税政策给公司让渡利益。
同时,本文的实证分析发现：(1)公司的资产负债率普遍表现出顺周期的特征。在经济上升周期,公司的资产负债率会显著增加,而在下降周期,公司的资产负债率会相应降低,且资产负债率的变动速率会随着经济周期的持续上升而加快。(2)货币政策会对一些产业的资产负债率,如第二产业中的采掘业等,产生较大影响,并且还会加大资本结构变动的速率。此外宽松的货币政策与投资过度也具有显著关系。上述观点或发现,对于优化公司财务行为选择、促进经济发展方式转变都具有比较重要的指导意义或参考价值。
It attracts worldwide attention that the development of China Economics increased10%annually in recent30years under the reform and opening policy and the amount of economics ranks second now. Meanwhile, not only the American financial crisis and European Sovereign Debt Crisis affect the global economics (including China), but also the development of China economics faces several issues. The internal factor has a big potential threaten to China continuous development of economics in future. It includes:with the expansion of China economics amount, the scarcity structure of economics element has a significant change:the shortage of plant, minerals and water etc. increased more, the effects that the source environment restriction to economic development improved more. The change of the supply-demand relation in production elements require the adjustment of the power, structure, quality, efficiency, employment, distribution, consumption and environment etc., as well as the transformation of the survive and development way for the corporates to adapt the new change. It makes the corporates accordingly set the new position in the utilization of resources, the consumption of energy, the cost of human resource, the innovation of technology, the exploration of mark.
All of these changes belong to the transformation of economic development mode. However, there are several papers study the transformation of economic development mode in macroeconomics but a few of them discuss the choice of corporate financial behavior under the transformation of economic development mode. This paper try to study the logic between the transformation of economic development mode and the choice of corporate financial behavior, discuss the adjustment and change of such behavior choice, analyze the effects of the corporate financial behavior under the transformation of economic development mode, and finally give some suggestions for policy.
Beside the introduction, this Paper is made up of five parts. The main contents are as follows:
Part1:Literature Review. This part reviews systematically the related papers about the transformation of economic development mode and corporate financial behavior, make comments on the existing research, and point out the shortcoming of the existing papers.
Part2:The effects of the transformation of economic development mode on the choice of corporate financial behavior. This part discusses the influence factors, interest conflicts and change path related to the Transformation of Economic Development Mode and the choice of corporate financial behavior. In detail, the value choice, risk-profit, and social responsibility in the corporate financial behavior are studied. This part analyzes the internal and external variables which impact on the choice of corporate financial behavior, discusses the relationship between the choice of corporate financial behavior and the transformation of economic development mode, studies the effects of change of core value on the financial idea and financial policy, and specify the position of corporate financial policy and social responsibilities in the transformation of economic development mode.
Part3:The way of corporate financial behavior:Descriptive analysis. This part uses the methods of descriptive statistical analysis to discuss the characteristics of the choice of corporate financial behavior in China by different industries. The corporate financing behavior is mainly analyzed by the rate of assets to liabilities and related financial indicators. For the corporate investment behavior, the main issue is still the insufficiency of investments.
Part4:The choice of corporate financial behavior:The empirical analysis. This part uses the optimal capital structure and optimal investment model to analyze the macroeconomic factors impact on corporate investment and financing behavior. The result indicates that the economic cycle generally significantly effect on these firms, and the effects of currency supply, taxation and interests are all related to the industry. The Loan amount has the lowest power of explanation.
Part5:Conclusions and suggestion. This part summarizes the main conclusions, provides some policy suggestion, summarizes the contribution and limitation, and gives some suggestion for further research.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows:
Firstly, the existing studies in corporate finance mainly based on the microscopic perspective and the traditional analysis framework. Although there is some analysis considered the macroeconomic environment, most of them are just on the theory level. This paper focuses on'the macro-economic environment'and 'corporate financial behavior'to find their relations. It studies the choice of corporate financial behavioral under the transformation of economic development mode, and discuss the financial behavior, value orientation and characteristic, about them. This study provides new views for further study.
Second, from the research design, this paper constructs a dynamic study of corporate financial behavior based on macroeconomic factors of the investment and financing model, and finds the main macroeconomic indicators of corporate financial behavior. Meanwhile, the model constructed in this paper based on the macro level and micro level factors, using a dynamic panel data model to estimate. So this study consider not only the direct influence of macro-economic policy factors on corporate financing behavior, but also the indirect influence on the change of investment and financing behavior rate. Especially, this paper introduces the industry factor in to the model to reveal the characteristics of the capital structure and investment inefficiency.
Third, this paper presents some policy suggestions:(1) In current background, macroeconomic factors determines not only the external supply of capital, but also the value orientation of the financial impact behavior and default risk.(2) the key to change the mode of economic development is to use different choice of corporate finance behavior for different firms.(3) The core of the transformation of economic development mode is to continuously enhance the company meet the requirement of market economy development innovation ability, not simply rely on tax cuts to transfer interest.
The empirical analysis also found that:(1) the assets to liabilities rate has Procyclical characters.(2) Monetary policy has a greater impact in several industries, such as the mining sector in the secondary industry.
这些宏观层面经济政策的调整和微观公司行为的改变都属于经济发展方式转变的一部分。然而,虽然目前很多人从宏观经济角度研究经济发展方式转变,但是鲜有人以公司财务行为选择来研究经济发展方式转变。从这个基本认识出发,本文试图在系统梳理经济发展方式转变和公司财务选择行为的基础上,着重探讨公司财务行为选择在宏观经济背景下的调整与改变,实证检验我国宏观经济政策对微观财务行为选择的影响,并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。
本文除导论外共分为五个部分：
第一部分：文献综述。该部分通过对经济发展方式转变和财务行为理论及其实证的研究所涉及的相关内容分析,回顾了国内相关的研究角度。从理论基础上对前人提出的思想进行回顾,并对现在学术界相关学者的观点进行评述。
第二部分：经济发展方式转变及其对公司财务行为选择的影响。本章主要阐述了我国经济发展方式转变对公司财务行为选择的影响因素、利益冲突以及改变路径等。其中,对当前背景下公司财务行为选择的价值取向、风险收益以及社会责任等均作了理论分析,不仅阐述了影响公司财务行为选择价值取向的内外部因素,讨论了公司财务行为选择价值与经济发展方式转变间的关系,还从风险和收益的传统财务角度出发探讨了在经济发展方式转变过程中公司核心价值观的转变对公司财务理念以及财务政策的影响,明确了在经济转型过程中公司财务政策与社会责任的定位。
第三部分：公司财务行为方式：描述性分析。本章主要运用描述统计分析的方法分行业探讨了我国公司财务行为特征。其中,对于公司的融资行为特征主要通过资产负债率以及相关的财务指标进行分析,从中发现近10年我国公司的资产负债率处于逐步上升态势,其中房地产行业的上升趋势最为明显。而对于公司的投资行为来说,投资非效率问题仍然是目前面临的主要问题。
第四部分：公司财务行为选择：实证分析。本章基于最优资本结构以及最优投资模型进行模型设计,运用实证研究方法,分析了我国宏观经济因素对于公司投融资主要财务行为选择的影响。从中发现,经济周期对各行业公司的投融资影响普遍显著,而货币供应量、税收以及利率的影响则与行业相关。对公司财务行为解释力最小的是我国的信贷规模。
第五部分：研究结论与启示。本章对全文的研究进行了归纳,梳理出主要结论,为我国的宏观政策提出建议,并探讨了研究的局限性以及后续研究的方向。
本文所涉及的是一个战略性、前瞻性和现实性都很强的研究领域,也是一个跨学科交叉的新的研究领域。本文试图在以下方面形成自己的特色,并实现创新。
第一,从研究视角看。已有公司财务研究大多基于微观的视角和传统的分析框架,虽然也注重对宏观经济环境的分析考量,但多囿于表象的理论推演层面。本文着力在“宏观经济环境”与“公司财务行为”的“契合点”上下功夫,将公司财务行为选择置入经济发展方式转变的大背景下,探讨经济发展方式转变下公司财务行为的模式、价值取向和特征,这无疑为本研究、也为后续研究者提供了一个新的研究视角和分析框架。
第二,从研究设计看。本文构建了基于宏观经济因素来研究公司财务行为的动态投融资模型,并发现了影响公司财务行为的主要宏观经济指标,凸显了重要的政策价值和决策基础。同时,本文构建的模型在引入宏观层面和微观层面因素的基础上,采用了动态面板数据进行模型估计,不仅考虑宏观经济政策因素对公司投融资行为的直接影响,还考虑其对投融资行为速率变动的间接影响。尤其是,本文在对模型进行实证检验时,把“行业特征”作为影响公司财务行为的重要因素加以考量,有利于揭示行业特征变量导致的资本结构和投资非效率问题。
第三,从研究发现看。本文提出了一些具有较强政策意义的观点或结论,其中最主要的有三点：(1)在我国经济发展方式转变的背景下,宏观经济因素是影响公司财务行为选择的的重要考量,不仅决定了公司外部的资本供给,还影响公司财务行为选择的价值取向以及违约风险等。(2)转变经济发展方式的关键,在于引导公司进行不同的财务行为选择,对于不同的行业应当区别对待,通过制定相应的经济政策,改变公司外部环境约束,优化公司财务行为,进而促进或实现公司转型；(3)转变经济发展方式的着力点,在于不断增强公司适应市场经济发展的要求创新能力,而不是单纯依靠减税政策给公司让渡利益。
同时,本文的实证分析发现：(1)公司的资产负债率普遍表现出顺周期的特征。在经济上升周期,公司的资产负债率会显著增加,而在下降周期,公司的资产负债率会相应降低,且资产负债率的变动速率会随着经济周期的持续上升而加快。(2)货币政策会对一些产业的资产负债率,如第二产业中的采掘业等,产生较大影响,并且还会加大资本结构变动的速率。此外宽松的货币政策与投资过度也具有显著关系。上述观点或发现,对于优化公司财务行为选择、促进经济发展方式转变都具有比较重要的指导意义或参考价值。
It attracts worldwide attention that the development of China Economics increased10%annually in recent30years under the reform and opening policy and the amount of economics ranks second now. Meanwhile, not only the American financial crisis and European Sovereign Debt Crisis affect the global economics (including China), but also the development of China economics faces several issues. The internal factor has a big potential threaten to China continuous development of economics in future. It includes:with the expansion of China economics amount, the scarcity structure of economics element has a significant change:the shortage of plant, minerals and water etc. increased more, the effects that the source environment restriction to economic development improved more. The change of the supply-demand relation in production elements require the adjustment of the power, structure, quality, efficiency, employment, distribution, consumption and environment etc., as well as the transformation of the survive and development way for the corporates to adapt the new change. It makes the corporates accordingly set the new position in the utilization of resources, the consumption of energy, the cost of human resource, the innovation of technology, the exploration of mark.
All of these changes belong to the transformation of economic development mode. However, there are several papers study the transformation of economic development mode in macroeconomics but a few of them discuss the choice of corporate financial behavior under the transformation of economic development mode. This paper try to study the logic between the transformation of economic development mode and the choice of corporate financial behavior, discuss the adjustment and change of such behavior choice, analyze the effects of the corporate financial behavior under the transformation of economic development mode, and finally give some suggestions for policy.
Beside the introduction, this Paper is made up of five parts. The main contents are as follows:
Part1:Literature Review. This part reviews systematically the related papers about the transformation of economic development mode and corporate financial behavior, make comments on the existing research, and point out the shortcoming of the existing papers.
Part2:The effects of the transformation of economic development mode on the choice of corporate financial behavior. This part discusses the influence factors, interest conflicts and change path related to the Transformation of Economic Development Mode and the choice of corporate financial behavior. In detail, the value choice, risk-profit, and social responsibility in the corporate financial behavior are studied. This part analyzes the internal and external variables which impact on the choice of corporate financial behavior, discusses the relationship between the choice of corporate financial behavior and the transformation of economic development mode, studies the effects of change of core value on the financial idea and financial policy, and specify the position of corporate financial policy and social responsibilities in the transformation of economic development mode.
Part3:The way of corporate financial behavior:Descriptive analysis. This part uses the methods of descriptive statistical analysis to discuss the characteristics of the choice of corporate financial behavior in China by different industries. The corporate financing behavior is mainly analyzed by the rate of assets to liabilities and related financial indicators. For the corporate investment behavior, the main issue is still the insufficiency of investments.
Part4:The choice of corporate financial behavior:The empirical analysis. This part uses the optimal capital structure and optimal investment model to analyze the macroeconomic factors impact on corporate investment and financing behavior. The result indicates that the economic cycle generally significantly effect on these firms, and the effects of currency supply, taxation and interests are all related to the industry. The Loan amount has the lowest power of explanation.
Part5:Conclusions and suggestion. This part summarizes the main conclusions, provides some policy suggestion, summarizes the contribution and limitation, and gives some suggestion for further research.
The main contributions of this paper are as follows:
Firstly, the existing studies in corporate finance mainly based on the microscopic perspective and the traditional analysis framework. Although there is some analysis considered the macroeconomic environment, most of them are just on the theory level. This paper focuses on'the macro-economic environment'and 'corporate financial behavior'to find their relations. It studies the choice of corporate financial behavioral under the transformation of economic development mode, and discuss the financial behavior, value orientation and characteristic, about them. This study provides new views for further study.
Second, from the research design, this paper constructs a dynamic study of corporate financial behavior based on macroeconomic factors of the investment and financing model, and finds the main macroeconomic indicators of corporate financial behavior. Meanwhile, the model constructed in this paper based on the macro level and micro level factors, using a dynamic panel data model to estimate. So this study consider not only the direct influence of macro-economic policy factors on corporate financing behavior, but also the indirect influence on the change of investment and financing behavior rate. Especially, this paper introduces the industry factor in to the model to reveal the characteristics of the capital structure and investment inefficiency.
Third, this paper presents some policy suggestions:(1) In current background, macroeconomic factors determines not only the external supply of capital, but also the value orientation of the financial impact behavior and default risk.(2) the key to change the mode of economic development is to use different choice of corporate finance behavior for different firms.(3) The core of the transformation of economic development mode is to continuously enhance the company meet the requirement of market economy development innovation ability, not simply rely on tax cuts to transfer interest.
The empirical analysis also found that:(1) the assets to liabilities rate has Procyclical characters.(2) Monetary policy has a greater impact in several industries, such as the mining sector in the secondary industry.
引文
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