国际黄金定价机制研究
摘要
受金融危机影响,黄金因具备保值性功能备受追捧,价格不断升高。为保证官方储备的价值,美国利用其国际地位优势不断推高黄金价格,损害了其他国家的经济利益。我国黄金市场尚处于发展阶段,黄金市场机制尚不完善。为维护本国经济利益,我国必须主动争取黄金市场的定价权。基于马歇尔供求理论、国际价格和国际定价权的基本原理及期货价格理论,本文分析了我国争取黄金定价权的问题。黄金的基本价格由供给和需求决定。黄金的供应受生产成本和储藏量影响。黄金需求包括消费需求、储备需求和投资需求。此外,美元汇率、各国的货币政策、通货膨胀、地缘政治是也是影响黄金价格波动的重要因素。本文对国际上主要的黄金交易市场包括伦敦黄金市场、美国黄金市场,进行了深入的分析。从黄金的交易方式来看,期货交易由于比现货交易更灵活的交易方式,目前已经主导了世界黄金交易市场,成为决定黄金价格的主要因素。
我国黄金的供给量和需求量在国际黄金市场占有重要地位,随着我国黄金产量的持续增加,我国在国际黄金市场上的地位并不能和其交易量相匹配,所以亟须主动争取国际市场黄金定价权。随着我国经济体制改革的不断深入旧的黄金管理体制日益不能满足经济发展的需要。2002年,上海黄金交易所成立,我国黄金定价进入了市场化阶段。
上海期货交易所黄金期货的推出使国际黄金期货交易形成了新的格局,预示着我国黄金价格对国际市场的影响力将会逐渐趋于强化。为验证这种影响力,本文对上海黄金期货合约价格与纽约黄金期货合约价格的引导性关系进行了实证检验。实证结论表明了上交所的黄金期货价格不是单纯的被纽交所的价格所引导,而是相互影响,相互引导的关系。上海黄金期货价格对纽约黄金期货价格也具有一定引导性。
黄金定价权的取得紧密依赖于国家雄厚的经济实力。其次,充足稳定的黄金供给和需求也缺一不可。我国已具备上述条件。为争取黄金国际定价权,本文提出以下建议：(一)完善黄金市场运作机制。首先要降低市场准入门槛,增加市场实力,让更多的市场主体有机会参与到黄金交易中,培养我国自己的金商集团,从而提高市场主体的整体素质,为我国争取黄金定价权奠定基础。其次要建立规范的黄金回购制度,理顺市场流通体系。(二)增加我国黄金储备。争取黄金国际定价权必须要有大量的黄金储备作为后盾,目前我国黄金储备量只占外汇储备总量的2%,而发达国家黄金在外汇储备中的占比达60%左右。(三)加强和知名交易所之间的合作。我国应该加强与伦敦黄金交易市场、纽约黄金交易所和香港黄金交易市场的合作,从而既能使我国黄金的交易量得到巨幅提升,还能更好地融入世界黄金交易市场。
By the affection of the financial crisis, because the gold has the function of keep valuing, the price continuing to rising. To ensure the value of the official reserves, the USA uses its international position advantage constantly push up the price of gold, damage economic interests of other countries. China's gold market still in the development stage, the gold market mechanism still is not perfected. To safeguarding our country economic interest, we must be active for the gold market pricing. Based on the theory of Marshall's supply and demand, the international price and the basic principle of the international pricing power, and the futures price theory, this paper analyzes the problems of the pricing power for gold. The basic price of the gold is decided by supply and demand. The supply of gold can be influenced by the cost of production and reserves. Gold demanding includes consumer demand, reserve demand and investment demand. In addition, the dollar exchange rate, nation's monetary policy, inflation, and geopolitical can also influence the gold price fluctuation. From the way of gold trading, futures trading due to more flexible than the spot trading, has been leading the world gold trading market. Futures trading had becoming main factor to decide the price of gold.
China's supply and demand for gold occupies an important position in the in the international gold market, with China's gold output continues to increase, China's international gold market position can't match its volume, so fight for the international gold pricing power. As the deepening of China's economic system reform, the old gold management system can't meet the need of economic development. In 2002, the Shanghai gold exchange was established, the price of the gold in China has coming into the market stage.
The Shanghai futures exchange's gold futures formed a new pattern in the international gold futures trading, indicating that the influence of the China's gold price on the international market will gradually become strengthen. To test this, in this paper, the influence of Shanghai gold futures contract price and the New York futures contract price of gold graphic relation empirically inspection. The empirical results indicate that the SHE's gold futures is not merely be CEMEX's price, but guided by mutual influence. Shanghai gold futures prices also have a certain leading for New York gold futures prices.
Getting the gold pricing power closely rely on national solid economic strength. Second, enough stable gold supply and demand also cannot be lack. Our country already has the above conditions. To fight for international gold pricing power, this paper put forward the following Suggestions:(1) perfect the gold market operation mechanism. First of all, to reduce market admittance threshold, increasing the market strength, let more market entity has the opportunity to participate in gold trading, to cultivate our own gold business group, so as to improve the overall quality of the market entity, which laid the foundation for our country to fight for gold pricing power. Second to set up standard gold repurchase system, straighten out the market circulation system. (2) To increase China's gold reserve. Fight for international gold pricing power must have a lot of gold reserves as the backing, at present, China's gold reserves of foreign exchange reserve accounts for only 2% of the total, and the developed countries gold reserves of the foreign exchange reserves more than about 60%. (3) To strengthen cooperation with famous exchanges. Our country should strengthen cooperation with London gold trading market, New York gold exchange and Hong Kong gold trading market, so as to make the volume of gold in China gets huge ascension, China still can blend in the world gold market easily.
我国黄金的供给量和需求量在国际黄金市场占有重要地位,随着我国黄金产量的持续增加,我国在国际黄金市场上的地位并不能和其交易量相匹配,所以亟须主动争取国际市场黄金定价权。随着我国经济体制改革的不断深入旧的黄金管理体制日益不能满足经济发展的需要。2002年,上海黄金交易所成立,我国黄金定价进入了市场化阶段。
上海期货交易所黄金期货的推出使国际黄金期货交易形成了新的格局,预示着我国黄金价格对国际市场的影响力将会逐渐趋于强化。为验证这种影响力,本文对上海黄金期货合约价格与纽约黄金期货合约价格的引导性关系进行了实证检验。实证结论表明了上交所的黄金期货价格不是单纯的被纽交所的价格所引导,而是相互影响,相互引导的关系。上海黄金期货价格对纽约黄金期货价格也具有一定引导性。
黄金定价权的取得紧密依赖于国家雄厚的经济实力。其次,充足稳定的黄金供给和需求也缺一不可。我国已具备上述条件。为争取黄金国际定价权,本文提出以下建议：(一)完善黄金市场运作机制。首先要降低市场准入门槛,增加市场实力,让更多的市场主体有机会参与到黄金交易中,培养我国自己的金商集团,从而提高市场主体的整体素质,为我国争取黄金定价权奠定基础。其次要建立规范的黄金回购制度,理顺市场流通体系。(二)增加我国黄金储备。争取黄金国际定价权必须要有大量的黄金储备作为后盾,目前我国黄金储备量只占外汇储备总量的2%,而发达国家黄金在外汇储备中的占比达60%左右。(三)加强和知名交易所之间的合作。我国应该加强与伦敦黄金交易市场、纽约黄金交易所和香港黄金交易市场的合作,从而既能使我国黄金的交易量得到巨幅提升,还能更好地融入世界黄金交易市场。
By the affection of the financial crisis, because the gold has the function of keep valuing, the price continuing to rising. To ensure the value of the official reserves, the USA uses its international position advantage constantly push up the price of gold, damage economic interests of other countries. China's gold market still in the development stage, the gold market mechanism still is not perfected. To safeguarding our country economic interest, we must be active for the gold market pricing. Based on the theory of Marshall's supply and demand, the international price and the basic principle of the international pricing power, and the futures price theory, this paper analyzes the problems of the pricing power for gold. The basic price of the gold is decided by supply and demand. The supply of gold can be influenced by the cost of production and reserves. Gold demanding includes consumer demand, reserve demand and investment demand. In addition, the dollar exchange rate, nation's monetary policy, inflation, and geopolitical can also influence the gold price fluctuation. From the way of gold trading, futures trading due to more flexible than the spot trading, has been leading the world gold trading market. Futures trading had becoming main factor to decide the price of gold.
China's supply and demand for gold occupies an important position in the in the international gold market, with China's gold output continues to increase, China's international gold market position can't match its volume, so fight for the international gold pricing power. As the deepening of China's economic system reform, the old gold management system can't meet the need of economic development. In 2002, the Shanghai gold exchange was established, the price of the gold in China has coming into the market stage.
The Shanghai futures exchange's gold futures formed a new pattern in the international gold futures trading, indicating that the influence of the China's gold price on the international market will gradually become strengthen. To test this, in this paper, the influence of Shanghai gold futures contract price and the New York futures contract price of gold graphic relation empirically inspection. The empirical results indicate that the SHE's gold futures is not merely be CEMEX's price, but guided by mutual influence. Shanghai gold futures prices also have a certain leading for New York gold futures prices.
Getting the gold pricing power closely rely on national solid economic strength. Second, enough stable gold supply and demand also cannot be lack. Our country already has the above conditions. To fight for international gold pricing power, this paper put forward the following Suggestions:(1) perfect the gold market operation mechanism. First of all, to reduce market admittance threshold, increasing the market strength, let more market entity has the opportunity to participate in gold trading, to cultivate our own gold business group, so as to improve the overall quality of the market entity, which laid the foundation for our country to fight for gold pricing power. Second to set up standard gold repurchase system, straighten out the market circulation system. (2) To increase China's gold reserve. Fight for international gold pricing power must have a lot of gold reserves as the backing, at present, China's gold reserves of foreign exchange reserve accounts for only 2% of the total, and the developed countries gold reserves of the foreign exchange reserves more than about 60%. (3) To strengthen cooperation with famous exchanges. Our country should strengthen cooperation with London gold trading market, New York gold exchange and Hong Kong gold trading market, so as to make the volume of gold in China gets huge ascension, China still can blend in the world gold market easily.
引文
[1]博韬.国际黄金价格巨幅波动的原因剖析与走势预测[J].国际金融研究,2000(11)：72-73
[2]傅瑜.预测黄金价格的三种方法[J].上海投资,2007(8)：56-57
[3]幻李昊.黄金价格与美元汇率[J].上海金融学报,1999(1)：72-75
[4]胡恩同.黄金的双重属性与其价格决定机制[J].黄金科学技术,2005,13(5)：2-7
[5]胡宪铭.黄金价格与黄金股票证券[J].中国黄金经济,2000(4)：41-45
[6]蒋立群.黄金价格波动的决定因素探讨[J].时代经贸,2007,5(88)：115-119
[7]黎斌林.近期世界黄金市场分析及展望[J].世界有色金属,2009(1)：54-55[8]李战杰.黄金价格的影响因素[J].重庆商学院学报,2005(4)：20-22
[9]伦敦黄金协会网站www.lbma.or.uk
[10]马天平.商业银行如何参与黄金期货[J].金融理论与实践,2008(5)：110-118
[11]穆怀朋.打造体系健全、功能完备、产品丰富的金融市场[J].中国金融,2008(20)：39-40
[12]平祥仁.从世界货币的发展看美元的财富掠夺性[J].武汉金融,2008(9)22-24
[13]上海黄金交易所网站www.sge.sh
[14]上海期货交易所网站www.shfe.com.cn
[15]施丽敏.黄金定价机制与我国构建黄金定价权战略研究[D].华东师范大学硕士学位论文,2009
[16]世界黄金协会网站www.Gold.org
[17]宋柳.国际黄金市场分析及我国黄金市场发展研究[D].四川大学硕士学位论文,2007
[18]田传战.世界黄金期货市场、工具与法规政策环境的比较分析[J].国际金融研究,2008(4)：65-74
[19]王晨烨.石油的“黄金价格”与经济危机相关性研究[J].经济论坛,2006(16)： 39-41
[20]王祖伟,李兆江.世界黄金价格变动特点及未来趋势[J].黄金,2004,(2)：54-57
[21]吴顺达.黄金市场发展面临的问题及对策[J].吉林金融研究,2008(5)：3-5
[22]闰屹,赵艳芳.近年来国际黄金价格走势分析及预测[J].商场现代化,2006(12)：187-188
[23]杨柳勇.黄金价格的长期决定因素分析[J].统计研究,2004(6)：22-24
[24]杨叶.黄金价格和石油价格的联动关系[J].黄金,2007,28(2)：3-7
[25]袁鳃.我国黄金市场发展存在的问题及对策[J].南方金融,2008(6)：41-46
[26]张旭.国际黄金价格与我国黄金储备动态管理[D].首都师范大学硕士学位论文,2009
[27]张宏颖,于萍.世界黄金价格变化趋势及影响因素[J].工业技术经济,2005,18(3)：63-65
[28]郑佳,林斌.人民币汇率变动对国际黄金价格的影响[J].黄金,2007,28：4-7
[29]郑润祥.2007年,黄金价格趋向何方[J].中国外汇,2007(1)：59-60
[30]中国黄金协会网站www.cn.gold.org.cn
[31]周洁卿.黄金和黄金市场[M].上海：学林出版社,2009
[32]Christophe Faugere,Julian Van Erlach.'The Price of Gold:A Global Required Yield Theory."The Journal of Investing, Spring 2005, pp.97-112
[33]David Ransom H, Co. Economics. "Why gold, not oil, is the superior predictor of inflation?"World Gold Council, November 2005,PP.1-8
[34]Eric J Levin, Robert E Wright." Short-run and Long-run Determinants of the Price of Gold." World Gold Council, June 2006, pp.5-70
[35]Forrest Cpie, Geoffrey Wood." Gold as a Hedge against the US Dollar." World Gold Council, September 2004, pp.1-196
[36]Jun Cai, and Michael C. S. Wong. "What Moves the Gold Market?" The Journal of Futures Markets, vol.21(3) (2001),pp.255-278
[37]Nikos Kavalis. "Commodity Prices and the Influence of the US Dollar."World Gold Council, January 2006, pp.2-15
[38]Stephen Harmston. "Gold as a Store of Value."World Gold Council, November 1998, pp.5-66 [36]Terence C. Mills. "Statistical analysis of daily gold price data."Physica A, vol.338 (2004), pp.559-566
[39]Richard Michaud, Katharine Pulvermacher. "Gold as a Strategic Asset." World Gold Council, September 2006, pp.1-34
[40]Rohan Christie-David,Timothy W.Koch."Do Macroeconomics News Releases Affect Gold and Silver Prices?" Journal of Economics and Business, vol.52 (2000), pp.407-421
[2]傅瑜.预测黄金价格的三种方法[J].上海投资,2007(8)：56-57
[3]幻李昊.黄金价格与美元汇率[J].上海金融学报,1999(1)：72-75
[4]胡恩同.黄金的双重属性与其价格决定机制[J].黄金科学技术,2005,13(5)：2-7
[5]胡宪铭.黄金价格与黄金股票证券[J].中国黄金经济,2000(4)：41-45
[6]蒋立群.黄金价格波动的决定因素探讨[J].时代经贸,2007,5(88)：115-119
[7]黎斌林.近期世界黄金市场分析及展望[J].世界有色金属,2009(1)：54-55[8]李战杰.黄金价格的影响因素[J].重庆商学院学报,2005(4)：20-22
[9]伦敦黄金协会网站www.lbma.or.uk
[10]马天平.商业银行如何参与黄金期货[J].金融理论与实践,2008(5)：110-118
[11]穆怀朋.打造体系健全、功能完备、产品丰富的金融市场[J].中国金融,2008(20)：39-40
[12]平祥仁.从世界货币的发展看美元的财富掠夺性[J].武汉金融,2008(9)22-24
[13]上海黄金交易所网站www.sge.sh
[14]上海期货交易所网站www.shfe.com.cn
[15]施丽敏.黄金定价机制与我国构建黄金定价权战略研究[D].华东师范大学硕士学位论文,2009
[16]世界黄金协会网站www.Gold.org
[17]宋柳.国际黄金市场分析及我国黄金市场发展研究[D].四川大学硕士学位论文,2007
[18]田传战.世界黄金期货市场、工具与法规政策环境的比较分析[J].国际金融研究,2008(4)：65-74
[19]王晨烨.石油的“黄金价格”与经济危机相关性研究[J].经济论坛,2006(16)： 39-41
[20]王祖伟,李兆江.世界黄金价格变动特点及未来趋势[J].黄金,2004,(2)：54-57
[21]吴顺达.黄金市场发展面临的问题及对策[J].吉林金融研究,2008(5)：3-5
[22]闰屹,赵艳芳.近年来国际黄金价格走势分析及预测[J].商场现代化,2006(12)：187-188
[23]杨柳勇.黄金价格的长期决定因素分析[J].统计研究,2004(6)：22-24
[24]杨叶.黄金价格和石油价格的联动关系[J].黄金,2007,28(2)：3-7
[25]袁鳃.我国黄金市场发展存在的问题及对策[J].南方金融,2008(6)：41-46
[26]张旭.国际黄金价格与我国黄金储备动态管理[D].首都师范大学硕士学位论文,2009
[27]张宏颖,于萍.世界黄金价格变化趋势及影响因素[J].工业技术经济,2005,18(3)：63-65
[28]郑佳,林斌.人民币汇率变动对国际黄金价格的影响[J].黄金,2007,28：4-7
[29]郑润祥.2007年,黄金价格趋向何方[J].中国外汇,2007(1)：59-60
[30]中国黄金协会网站www.cn.gold.org.cn
[31]周洁卿.黄金和黄金市场[M].上海：学林出版社,2009
[32]Christophe Faugere,Julian Van Erlach.'The Price of Gold:A Global Required Yield Theory."The Journal of Investing, Spring 2005, pp.97-112
[33]David Ransom H, Co. Economics. "Why gold, not oil, is the superior predictor of inflation?"World Gold Council, November 2005,PP.1-8
[34]Eric J Levin, Robert E Wright." Short-run and Long-run Determinants of the Price of Gold." World Gold Council, June 2006, pp.5-70
[35]Forrest Cpie, Geoffrey Wood." Gold as a Hedge against the US Dollar." World Gold Council, September 2004, pp.1-196
[36]Jun Cai, and Michael C. S. Wong. "What Moves the Gold Market?" The Journal of Futures Markets, vol.21(3) (2001),pp.255-278
[37]Nikos Kavalis. "Commodity Prices and the Influence of the US Dollar."World Gold Council, January 2006, pp.2-15
[38]Stephen Harmston. "Gold as a Store of Value."World Gold Council, November 1998, pp.5-66 [36]Terence C. Mills. "Statistical analysis of daily gold price data."Physica A, vol.338 (2004), pp.559-566
[39]Richard Michaud, Katharine Pulvermacher. "Gold as a Strategic Asset." World Gold Council, September 2006, pp.1-34
[40]Rohan Christie-David,Timothy W.Koch."Do Macroeconomics News Releases Affect Gold and Silver Prices?" Journal of Economics and Business, vol.52 (2000), pp.407-421