农户耕地抛荒的驱动因素研究
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摘要
中国城市化和工业化的高速发展,使建设用地规模急剧增长,侵占了大量耕地：加上大规模的生态退耕与农业结构调整,导致耕地数量不断减少。中央政府高度重视耕地保护,多次强调采取世界上最严格的手段保护耕地。但是,与此同时,耕地抛荒现象在全国普遍存在,并出现过几次大范围的耕地抛荒。近年来,耕地抛荒现象呈愈演愈烈之势,而且表现出新的特点：全年性抛荒越来越多,隐性抛荒被显性抛荒取代,社会经济原因引起的抛荒越来越多,农民主动性抛荒越来越多。尽管中央政府实施了一系列促进农业发展的政策,但是,耕地抛荒的发展态势并未出现根本性扭转,在部分地区甚至出现蔓延趋势。
耕地抛荒的驱动因素复杂多样,已有的研究主要表现为以整个县、镇或村等行政区为单元的、宏观层面上的定性分析,鲜有以农户为基本单位的微观层面的定量分析。中国农村经济基本单位是以农户为主体,农户是农村最基本的微观经济决策单位,土地利用行为是农户基本的行为决策之一。鉴于此,本文试图通过设计调查问卷,以河南省尉氏县为研究区,随机选取农户进行入户调查,了解农户的耕地利用背景及其利用行为,运用二项Logit模型对耕地抛荒的驱动因素进行定量研究分析。
本研究主要从以下四个方面展开：
(1)从耕地抛荒的概念、类型、特点、原因以及耕地抛荒程度的测度等方面,对国内外的已有研究成果进行了系统梳理。
(2)从经济人假设与土地利用行为、激励理论与土地利用行为、土地产权稳定性与土地利用行为、土地经营权流转与土地利用行为、农户家庭特征与土地利用行为以及土地状况与土地利用行为等方面,在理论层面对农户的土地利用行为决策进行了阐释。
(3)选取河南省尉氏县作为典型研究区,以了解农户耕地抛荒情况及其驱动因素为目的,设计调查问卷,随机选取了12个村庄的500户农户,进行了入户调查走访,对研究区调查样本的基本属性进行了详细分析。
(4)根据耕地抛荒特点,选取农户家庭特征、耕地状况、家庭收入、耕地流转、耕地保护认知等变量,运用二项Logit模型对影响农户耕地抛荒的驱动因素进行定量分析。
本文研究结果表明,研究区的耕地抛荒问题比较严重,存在耕地抛荒的农户占样本总数的64.83%,耕地抛荒率为16%。经济因素是导致耕地抛荒最重要的原因。农民对土地社会保障功能的依赖,农村土地流转制度不健全,农民耕地保护意识不强,是耕地抛荒的主要原因。
本文二项Logit回归分析结果表明,户主年龄、耕地面积、人均收入、农业收入比重、农作物价格变化、耕地流转等因素对耕地抛荒的影响显著。户主年龄越大,越不抛荒耕地；在耕地面积无法满足农民实现规模经营的情况下,耕地面积越大,农民抛荒耕地的可能性越大；农户人均收入水平越高,农业收入比重越低,越有可能出现耕地抛荒；农作物价格越高,耕地抛荒可能性越小；自发的、无序的耕地流转对减少耕地抛荒具有一定的作用,但作用并不明显。
为了促进耕地的有效利用,减少耕地抛荒,本文建议继续加大惠农力度,完善农村基础设施特别是农田水利设施建设；加强土地流转政策宣传力度,建立健全土地流转制度；完善农村社会保障制度,减轻农民对土地社会保障功能的依赖；建立耕地利用情况监督机制,评估耕地抛荒状况及其影响。
A lot of cultivated land has been converted to construction land, along with China rapid industrialization and urbanization in the past three decades. In the meantime, ecological restoration also contributes to decreasing amount of cultivated land. Although Chinese government attaches great importance to the protection of cultivated land and implements the most stringent policies in the world, there are still much cultivated land abandoned all over the country. Recently, more and more cultivated land has been made off cultivation, and something new appears:more and more year-round cultivated land abandonment, recessive abandonment replaced by dominant abandonment, more and more abandonments come from social-economic, and more and more farmers make their land off cultivation actively. Many policies to reduce cultivated land abandonment have been implemented, but there is not any sign indicates land abandonment will stops, even it becomes worse in some areas.
Many reasons could arise cultivated land abandonment, most latest researches take a county, a town or a village as a whole to find the reasons why farmers make their land off cultivation in macro-level with qualitative methods, while few researches are conducted from farmers' perspectives with quantitative methods. Household is a basic economic unit in China, and how to use their land is one of the decision-making behaviors. Therefore, based on household questionnaire with face to face interviews with farmers randomly selected in Weishi County, Henan province, this study quantifies the impact of influential factors on farmers' decision about land off cultivation with logit model.
This study is constituted of following four parts:
(1) First of all, this study reviews the literature of cultivated land abandonment, including the land abandonment conceptions, types, features, reasons and measure methods of number of land abandonment, and then reviews the implement and development of discrete choice models.
(2) Secondly, this study analyses the farmers land use behavior with economic man assumption, motivation theory and land property rights stability theory, and elaborates the relationships between land use rights transfer, features of peasant household, features of land and land use.
(3) Furthermore, this study takes Weishi County as a study area, makes 500 face to face interviews in twelve villages, and then analyses the properties of all the cases.
(4) Finally, based on the features of cultivated land abandonment, this study takes the features of peasant household, features of arable land, income of peasant household, land use rights transfer and land protection awareness as explanatory variables to understand why farmers make their land off cultivation with binary logit model.
This study concludes that 64.83% of the surveyed peasant households makes their land off cultivation, and 16% of land owned by the surveyed peasant households is abandoned. The lower income from agriculture than other industries is the most important cause why the farmers abandon their land. In addition, the great reliance on the social security function of land, the unsound system of land use rights transfer and the weak consciousness of land protection also are the important reasons of land abandonment.
The analysis results of binary logit model reveals how that the age of the head of household, the area of cultivated land, the average income, the proportion of agricultural income, the change of crops price and land use rights transfer affect that whether the farmers abandon their land or not significantly. Older of the head of household, less land abandonment; in current situation, larger area of cultivated land, more land abandonment; higher average income, lower proportion of agricultural income, more land abandonment; higher crops price, less land abandonment; and the spontaneous and disorderly land use rights transfer which occurs in nowadays Chinese countryside could reduce land abandonment to some extent, but the effect is weak.
To reduce land abandonment, make full use of cultivated land, based on the results of this study, we suggest that:keep on supporting farmers and agriculture production; improve rural infrastructure, especially the water conservancy facilities; improve the land use right transfer system and social security system; establish monitoring system of land use to assess the influence of land abandonment.
耕地抛荒的驱动因素复杂多样,已有的研究主要表现为以整个县、镇或村等行政区为单元的、宏观层面上的定性分析,鲜有以农户为基本单位的微观层面的定量分析。中国农村经济基本单位是以农户为主体,农户是农村最基本的微观经济决策单位,土地利用行为是农户基本的行为决策之一。鉴于此,本文试图通过设计调查问卷,以河南省尉氏县为研究区,随机选取农户进行入户调查,了解农户的耕地利用背景及其利用行为,运用二项Logit模型对耕地抛荒的驱动因素进行定量研究分析。
本研究主要从以下四个方面展开：
(1)从耕地抛荒的概念、类型、特点、原因以及耕地抛荒程度的测度等方面,对国内外的已有研究成果进行了系统梳理。
(2)从经济人假设与土地利用行为、激励理论与土地利用行为、土地产权稳定性与土地利用行为、土地经营权流转与土地利用行为、农户家庭特征与土地利用行为以及土地状况与土地利用行为等方面,在理论层面对农户的土地利用行为决策进行了阐释。
(3)选取河南省尉氏县作为典型研究区,以了解农户耕地抛荒情况及其驱动因素为目的,设计调查问卷,随机选取了12个村庄的500户农户,进行了入户调查走访,对研究区调查样本的基本属性进行了详细分析。
(4)根据耕地抛荒特点,选取农户家庭特征、耕地状况、家庭收入、耕地流转、耕地保护认知等变量,运用二项Logit模型对影响农户耕地抛荒的驱动因素进行定量分析。
本文研究结果表明,研究区的耕地抛荒问题比较严重,存在耕地抛荒的农户占样本总数的64.83%,耕地抛荒率为16%。经济因素是导致耕地抛荒最重要的原因。农民对土地社会保障功能的依赖,农村土地流转制度不健全,农民耕地保护意识不强,是耕地抛荒的主要原因。
本文二项Logit回归分析结果表明,户主年龄、耕地面积、人均收入、农业收入比重、农作物价格变化、耕地流转等因素对耕地抛荒的影响显著。户主年龄越大,越不抛荒耕地；在耕地面积无法满足农民实现规模经营的情况下,耕地面积越大,农民抛荒耕地的可能性越大；农户人均收入水平越高,农业收入比重越低,越有可能出现耕地抛荒；农作物价格越高,耕地抛荒可能性越小；自发的、无序的耕地流转对减少耕地抛荒具有一定的作用,但作用并不明显。
为了促进耕地的有效利用,减少耕地抛荒,本文建议继续加大惠农力度,完善农村基础设施特别是农田水利设施建设；加强土地流转政策宣传力度,建立健全土地流转制度；完善农村社会保障制度,减轻农民对土地社会保障功能的依赖；建立耕地利用情况监督机制,评估耕地抛荒状况及其影响。
A lot of cultivated land has been converted to construction land, along with China rapid industrialization and urbanization in the past three decades. In the meantime, ecological restoration also contributes to decreasing amount of cultivated land. Although Chinese government attaches great importance to the protection of cultivated land and implements the most stringent policies in the world, there are still much cultivated land abandoned all over the country. Recently, more and more cultivated land has been made off cultivation, and something new appears:more and more year-round cultivated land abandonment, recessive abandonment replaced by dominant abandonment, more and more abandonments come from social-economic, and more and more farmers make their land off cultivation actively. Many policies to reduce cultivated land abandonment have been implemented, but there is not any sign indicates land abandonment will stops, even it becomes worse in some areas.
Many reasons could arise cultivated land abandonment, most latest researches take a county, a town or a village as a whole to find the reasons why farmers make their land off cultivation in macro-level with qualitative methods, while few researches are conducted from farmers' perspectives with quantitative methods. Household is a basic economic unit in China, and how to use their land is one of the decision-making behaviors. Therefore, based on household questionnaire with face to face interviews with farmers randomly selected in Weishi County, Henan province, this study quantifies the impact of influential factors on farmers' decision about land off cultivation with logit model.
This study is constituted of following four parts:
(1) First of all, this study reviews the literature of cultivated land abandonment, including the land abandonment conceptions, types, features, reasons and measure methods of number of land abandonment, and then reviews the implement and development of discrete choice models.
(2) Secondly, this study analyses the farmers land use behavior with economic man assumption, motivation theory and land property rights stability theory, and elaborates the relationships between land use rights transfer, features of peasant household, features of land and land use.
(3) Furthermore, this study takes Weishi County as a study area, makes 500 face to face interviews in twelve villages, and then analyses the properties of all the cases.
(4) Finally, based on the features of cultivated land abandonment, this study takes the features of peasant household, features of arable land, income of peasant household, land use rights transfer and land protection awareness as explanatory variables to understand why farmers make their land off cultivation with binary logit model.
This study concludes that 64.83% of the surveyed peasant households makes their land off cultivation, and 16% of land owned by the surveyed peasant households is abandoned. The lower income from agriculture than other industries is the most important cause why the farmers abandon their land. In addition, the great reliance on the social security function of land, the unsound system of land use rights transfer and the weak consciousness of land protection also are the important reasons of land abandonment.
The analysis results of binary logit model reveals how that the age of the head of household, the area of cultivated land, the average income, the proportion of agricultural income, the change of crops price and land use rights transfer affect that whether the farmers abandon their land or not significantly. Older of the head of household, less land abandonment; in current situation, larger area of cultivated land, more land abandonment; higher average income, lower proportion of agricultural income, more land abandonment; higher crops price, less land abandonment; and the spontaneous and disorderly land use rights transfer which occurs in nowadays Chinese countryside could reduce land abandonment to some extent, but the effect is weak.
To reduce land abandonment, make full use of cultivated land, based on the results of this study, we suggest that:keep on supporting farmers and agriculture production; improve rural infrastructure, especially the water conservancy facilities; improve the land use right transfer system and social security system; establish monitoring system of land use to assess the influence of land abandonment.
引文
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