基于实物期权的技术创新扩散、竞争和交互模型研究
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摘要
技术创新包括技术采纳和技术提供(研发)两个相互作用的方面,两方面的投资决策均涉及大量的不确定因素,这些不确定性赋予企业诸多动态的决策灵活性。经典的投资决策方法如NPV方法由于未能考虑技术创新投资所具有的一系列决策灵活性的价值,不能对技术创新投资作出科学的分析和估价。实物期权方法考虑了决策灵活性的价值,其分析途径的重要特征就是将投资决策与市场估价融为一体,从而可以为技术创新和创新企业提供更为科学的投资决策分析方法和估价模型。
本文在对技术创新投资的实物期权分析方法进行综述的基础上,针对现有研究一些尚未解决的关键性问题或不足,采用实物期权分析方法,重点围绕技术采纳时机以及创新扩散、不完全竞争以及交互作用模式下的技术创新投资策略三个方面进行研究。
在采纳时机及创新扩散研究方面,在新技术的到达时间和提高效率都不确定的情况下,得到了企业最优的技术采纳的投资门槛值,并给出了企业采用时机的累积概率分布函数。进一步在采纳成本随技术进步不断下降的情形下,研究企业的最优技术采纳策略。对未来两代新技术的分析发现,创新速度越快,企业越倾向采纳下一代新技术,采纳成本平均下降幅度越小,这种趋势越明显。最后给出了企业面对无穷代新技术情形下最迟投资时间的计算方法。
在不完全竞争研究方面,考虑了竞争企业之间的非对称性和竞争策略之间的差异性,具体包括:竞争企业间存在成本差异,且成功实施新技术需要时间,领先采纳新技术企业享有利润上的先行者优势,同时在新产品市场开拓方面比跟随企业多支付一部分市场营销费用。采用期权博弈方法得到了抢先均衡、序贯均衡、同时均衡出现的条件。进一步研究发现,在抢先均衡中,创新成功所需时间和平均投资时间间隔成反向变动关系,而在序贯均衡中,二者不相关。投资成本差异对平均投资时间间隔的影响在抢先均衡和序贯均衡中是相反的。
对交互作用的研究分为两个方面,首先假设各采纳企业对未来新技术性能提高的预期不同,分析技术采纳企业在不同创新速度下的采纳策略,技术提供企业根据采纳企业的投资策略决定最优的创新速度。其次把技术提供企业和采纳企业的投资策略统一放在一个交互模式下进行研究,得到了提供方投资下一代创新技术的投资门槛所需
Technological innovations are composed of adopting and providing (R&D) technologies, which are two interactive aspects. There always exist a lot of uncertain factors in the investment decisions of two aspects. These uncertainties entitle firms a lot of dynamic decision flexibility. Because a series of value of decision flexibility of technological innovation investment are not considered by the classical investment evaluating approaches (NPV method), these traditional approaches can't make scientific analysis and appraisal to the investments of technological innovations. On the other hand, the real option analyzing approach considers the value of the decision flexibility, and the important characteristic of its analyzing way is to incorporate investment decision into market evaluation. Thus, the real option approach can offer more scientific analytical approaches and evaluation models for technological innovations and innovative firms.Based on the survey of the real option analyzing approach to investments of technological innovations, aiming at the deficiencies of the extant study, we study mainly the firms' investment strategies of technological innovation by real option approaches, involving technology adoption timing and innovation diffusion, imperfect competition and interactive mode.On study of technology adoption timing and innovation diffusion, we get the firm's optimal threshold of technology adoption under the uncertainties about both the time of the arrival and efficiency of improvement of technologies, and give the relevant cumulative probability distribution function regarding adopting technology timing. Furthermore, under decreasing adoption cost as technology progress, we study the optimal technology adoption strategies. When analyzing the circumstance in which there are two generations of new technologies in the future, we find that the faster the speed of technological innovation is, the more likelihood the firm wait to adopt the next generation of new technology. Moreover, the smaller the average extent of decreasing adoption cost of technologies, the more obvious the trend is. At last, we provide the calculating method of firm's investimg at latest under firm's facing infinite generations of new technologies in the future.
本文在对技术创新投资的实物期权分析方法进行综述的基础上,针对现有研究一些尚未解决的关键性问题或不足,采用实物期权分析方法,重点围绕技术采纳时机以及创新扩散、不完全竞争以及交互作用模式下的技术创新投资策略三个方面进行研究。
在采纳时机及创新扩散研究方面,在新技术的到达时间和提高效率都不确定的情况下,得到了企业最优的技术采纳的投资门槛值,并给出了企业采用时机的累积概率分布函数。进一步在采纳成本随技术进步不断下降的情形下,研究企业的最优技术采纳策略。对未来两代新技术的分析发现,创新速度越快,企业越倾向采纳下一代新技术,采纳成本平均下降幅度越小,这种趋势越明显。最后给出了企业面对无穷代新技术情形下最迟投资时间的计算方法。
在不完全竞争研究方面,考虑了竞争企业之间的非对称性和竞争策略之间的差异性,具体包括:竞争企业间存在成本差异,且成功实施新技术需要时间,领先采纳新技术企业享有利润上的先行者优势,同时在新产品市场开拓方面比跟随企业多支付一部分市场营销费用。采用期权博弈方法得到了抢先均衡、序贯均衡、同时均衡出现的条件。进一步研究发现,在抢先均衡中,创新成功所需时间和平均投资时间间隔成反向变动关系,而在序贯均衡中,二者不相关。投资成本差异对平均投资时间间隔的影响在抢先均衡和序贯均衡中是相反的。
对交互作用的研究分为两个方面,首先假设各采纳企业对未来新技术性能提高的预期不同,分析技术采纳企业在不同创新速度下的采纳策略,技术提供企业根据采纳企业的投资策略决定最优的创新速度。其次把技术提供企业和采纳企业的投资策略统一放在一个交互模式下进行研究,得到了提供方投资下一代创新技术的投资门槛所需
Technological innovations are composed of adopting and providing (R&D) technologies, which are two interactive aspects. There always exist a lot of uncertain factors in the investment decisions of two aspects. These uncertainties entitle firms a lot of dynamic decision flexibility. Because a series of value of decision flexibility of technological innovation investment are not considered by the classical investment evaluating approaches (NPV method), these traditional approaches can't make scientific analysis and appraisal to the investments of technological innovations. On the other hand, the real option analyzing approach considers the value of the decision flexibility, and the important characteristic of its analyzing way is to incorporate investment decision into market evaluation. Thus, the real option approach can offer more scientific analytical approaches and evaluation models for technological innovations and innovative firms.Based on the survey of the real option analyzing approach to investments of technological innovations, aiming at the deficiencies of the extant study, we study mainly the firms' investment strategies of technological innovation by real option approaches, involving technology adoption timing and innovation diffusion, imperfect competition and interactive mode.On study of technology adoption timing and innovation diffusion, we get the firm's optimal threshold of technology adoption under the uncertainties about both the time of the arrival and efficiency of improvement of technologies, and give the relevant cumulative probability distribution function regarding adopting technology timing. Furthermore, under decreasing adoption cost as technology progress, we study the optimal technology adoption strategies. When analyzing the circumstance in which there are two generations of new technologies in the future, we find that the faster the speed of technological innovation is, the more likelihood the firm wait to adopt the next generation of new technology. Moreover, the smaller the average extent of decreasing adoption cost of technologies, the more obvious the trend is. At last, we provide the calculating method of firm's investimg at latest under firm's facing infinite generations of new technologies in the future.
引文
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