高原湖泊湖区可持续发展评价体系及模式研究
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摘要
云南高原湖泊生态价值显著,对湖区社会经济发展具有重要的支撑作用,但近些年来,湖泊污染和生态退化日益严重,湖区社会经济发展和居民的生产、生活面临严峻的挑战,影响着湖区的可持续发展。因此保护与治理高原湖泊,促进高原湖区可持续发展已成为社会各界关注的重大问题。
根据以往高原湖区可持续发展理论及其评价研究不足的现状,结合高原湖区生态保护与社会经济发展二维困境实际,进行高原湖区可持续发展理论及其评价的研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文在参考了国内外大量文献的基础上,结合高原湖区独特的实际情况,探讨了高原湖区可持续发展理论的内涵和结构体系。以抚仙湖为例,构建了高原湖区可持续发展限定条件综合评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重,对各级指标的相对重要性做了客观表述,由于抚仙湖区和其它高原湖区有很多共性,面临的问题相似,解决问题的思路也有一定的共性,因此为其它湖区的可持续发展研究提出具有可操作性的建议。在研究上述问题的基础上,借鉴自适应控制理论,探索高原湖区可持续发展的新型模式。
There is significant ecological value of the plateau lakes in Yunnan,and these lakes play an important supporting role on social and economic development,but in recent years, the lake pollution and ecological degradation have become increasingly prominent. Consequently,the life and production of the residents who live in the lake basin face a serious challenge,therefore,protecting the plateau lakes and promoting sustainable development capacity of the plateau lakes basins has become an important issue,concened by various circles of the society.
On the account of the status quo of insufficient studies of the theories and their evaluations on the sustainable development of the plateau lake basins,and in combination of the reality of the two-dimensional difficult situation of the social and economic development of the plateau lakes as well as their ecological protection,there are high theoretical and practical value on theoretical researching and evaluation of the sustainable development of the plateau lakes basins.
In this paper, based on referencing lots of domestic and foreign literatures, combined with the unique situation of the plateau lakes, probed the meaning and structure system of sustainable development of plateau lakes. In Fuxian lake case, build a qualification comprehensive evaluation index system of sustainable development of plateau lakes,using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of each index, make an objective statement on the relative importance of each index.There are many commons between Fuxian lake and other plateau lakes face similar problems and have the same problem-solving idea,so it puts forward effective proposals of sustainable development for other lakes.In the study, based on the above issues, drawing on adaptive control theory, it explores a new model of sustainable development of the plateau lakes.
根据以往高原湖区可持续发展理论及其评价研究不足的现状,结合高原湖区生态保护与社会经济发展二维困境实际,进行高原湖区可持续发展理论及其评价的研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本文在参考了国内外大量文献的基础上,结合高原湖区独特的实际情况,探讨了高原湖区可持续发展理论的内涵和结构体系。以抚仙湖为例,构建了高原湖区可持续发展限定条件综合评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重,对各级指标的相对重要性做了客观表述,由于抚仙湖区和其它高原湖区有很多共性,面临的问题相似,解决问题的思路也有一定的共性,因此为其它湖区的可持续发展研究提出具有可操作性的建议。在研究上述问题的基础上,借鉴自适应控制理论,探索高原湖区可持续发展的新型模式。
There is significant ecological value of the plateau lakes in Yunnan,and these lakes play an important supporting role on social and economic development,but in recent years, the lake pollution and ecological degradation have become increasingly prominent. Consequently,the life and production of the residents who live in the lake basin face a serious challenge,therefore,protecting the plateau lakes and promoting sustainable development capacity of the plateau lakes basins has become an important issue,concened by various circles of the society.
On the account of the status quo of insufficient studies of the theories and their evaluations on the sustainable development of the plateau lake basins,and in combination of the reality of the two-dimensional difficult situation of the social and economic development of the plateau lakes as well as their ecological protection,there are high theoretical and practical value on theoretical researching and evaluation of the sustainable development of the plateau lakes basins.
In this paper, based on referencing lots of domestic and foreign literatures, combined with the unique situation of the plateau lakes, probed the meaning and structure system of sustainable development of plateau lakes. In Fuxian lake case, build a qualification comprehensive evaluation index system of sustainable development of plateau lakes,using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of each index, make an objective statement on the relative importance of each index.There are many commons between Fuxian lake and other plateau lakes face similar problems and have the same problem-solving idea,so it puts forward effective proposals of sustainable development for other lakes.In the study, based on the above issues, drawing on adaptive control theory, it explores a new model of sustainable development of the plateau lakes.
引文
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4盂庆民.论水资源格局与可持续发展.中国人口环境与资源.1999(4)：26-30
5陈南岳.对大河流域应成为我国可持续发展研究的一个主战场的认识初探.社会科学家2000.1
6张大伟,徐辉.中国实施流域生态系统管理面临的机遇和挑战.中国人口资源与环境.2007.5
8罗荣桂,江涛.试论小康社会的全面建设与生态经济系统的可持续发展.湖北教育学院学报.2004,21(5)
[1]中国科学院可持续发展战略研究组.2007中国可持续发展战略报告——水：治理与创新.北京：科学出版社,2007.2：12
[2]赵光洲,贺彬.高原湖泊流域可持续发展研究上海：立信会计出版社,2007.1
[3]胡元林,赵光洲.高原湖泊流域可持续发展判定条件与对策研究.经济问题探索,2008.8
[4]王志芸,贺彬,张秀敏等.云南省九大高原湖泊水污染现状调查与分析.云南环境科学.2006(25)增刊.77
[5]杨柳,黄耀志.云南高原湖泊流域综合发展研究.重庆大学学报：社会科学版.2002.3
[6]云南省环科院.八湖流域水污染综合防治“十一五”规划执行情况中期评估报告,2009
[7]云南省人民政府.云南九湖流域社会经济发展与环境保护战略研究,2008
[8]云南省九大高原湖泊2008年水质状况及治理情况公告,第四十二期
[9]中国工程院“21世纪中国可持续发展水资源战略研究”项目组.中国可持续发展水资源战略研究综合报告.中国工程科学.2000,2(8)：1-17
[10]毛志峰.人类文明与可持续发展——三种文明论.北京：新华出版社.2004.6：105
[11]龚胜生,敖荣军.可持续发展基础.科学出版社.2009.6：36
[12]魏彦杰.基于生态经济价值的可持续经济发展.北京：经济科学出版,2008.4
[13]刘培哲.可持续发展理论与中国21世纪议程.北京：气象出版社,2001.1
[14]王书华.区域生态经济——理论、方法与实践.北京.中国发展出版社,2008.2
[15]黄正夫.可持续发展与生态经济学.北京：中国环境科学出版社,2000
[16]牛文元.可持续发展理论的系统解析.武汉：湖北科技出版社,1998
[17]江涛.流域生态经济系统可持续发展机理研究.武汉理工大学博士学位论文,2007
[18]何有世.区域社会经济系统发展动态仿真与政策调控.北京：中国科学技术大学出版社,2008.2
[19]中国可持续发展状态与趋势.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007.9
[20]王先甲,肖文水.资源持续利用的支持条件与法则.自然资源学报,2001,16(1)：85-90
[21]杨树华.高原湖泊流域生态系统评价指标体系研究.云南大学学报：自然科学版.1999.2
[22]郝晓辉.可持续发展指标体系初探.国土开发与防治.1996,6(3)：33-39
[23]何小龙.云南省水资源可持续开发利用模糊综合评价.2005
[24]张尧庭.我们应该选用什么样的相关性指标?统计研究.2002(9)：41-44
[25]胡永红.综合评价指标中指标相关性的处理方法.统计研究2002(3)：39-40
[26]刘宏.综合评价中指标权重确定方法的研究.河北工业大学学报.1996,25(4)：75-78
[27]王本德,于义彬等.考虑权重折中系数的模糊识别方法及在水资源评价中的应用.水利学报.2004,(1)：6-10
[28]邵金花,刘贤.山东省水资源开发程度综合评价.人民黄河.2007,29(3)：39-41
[29]程乖梅,何士华.滇池流域水资源可持续利用多目标决策分析.水力发电2006.12
[30]夏青云,王尉英等.基于主成分分析的区域水资源开发程度综合评价.浙江水利科技,2007(2)：49-50
[31]宋松柏.区域水资源可持续利用指标体系及评价方法研究.西北农林科技大学,2003
[32]谢新民.水资源评价及可持续利用规划理论与实践.郑州：黄河水利出版社,2003
[33]水与可持续发展——定义与内涵.水科学进展,1997,8(4)：377-384
[34]冯尚友.水资源持续利用与管理.北京：科学出版社,2000
[35]王好芳.区域水资源可持续开发与社会经济协调发展研究.河海大学,2003
[36]刘毅,贾若祥,侯晓丽.中国区域水资源可持续利用评价及类型划分.环境科学,2005,26(1)：42-46
[37]郜彗,金辉.基于AHP和模糊综合评价的区域水资源可持续开发利用评价.水资源与水工程学报,2007,(3)：50-59
[38]金菊良,洪天求等.基于FAHP的水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价模型.水力发电报,2007,26(4)：22-28
[39]王慧敏,徐立中.流域系统可持续发展分析水科学进展.2000,11(2)165-172
[40]李朝霞.区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系研究.河海大学学报(自然科学 版).2007,35(1)：81-85
[41]刘恒,陈晓燕.区域水资源可持续利用评价指标体系的建立.水科学进展,2003,14(3)：265-270
[42]李金祥,王慧敏.流域可持续发展系统的模型研究.东北水利水电.2002,20(1)：43-47
[43]王玉梅.可持续发展评价.北京：中国标准出版社,2008.11
[44]谢新民.自适应控制系统.北京清华大学出版社.2002.7
[45]常玉苗.基于自适应控制的区域生态经济协调发展构想.科技进步与对策.2007,24(8)：23-27
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