高原环境弹药储存可靠性及评估方法研究
|
摘要
我国对弹药储存可靠性的研究起步晚,技术还不成熟,也缺乏严格规范的弹药寿命标准,特别是高原地区弹药的储存可靠性研究极少。高原特殊的气候特征,对弹药储存可靠性的影响,与内地大相径庭,不可盲目套用。尤其是高原部队弹药的报废,没有可供参考的科学依据,只能根据上级通知作出决定。如果未达到弹药实际储存寿命而提前退役,将给国家造成巨大的经济损失,达到弹药实际储存寿命而超期服役,又会增大弹药在储存和使用中的不安全性。可见,高原地区弹药储存可靠性的研究已处于十分突出的地位,有必要对其进行系统研究,摸索弹药储存可靠性下降的规律,为弹药在高原环境储存中的质量评级和销毁提供科学依据。
在弹药储存可靠性研究中,利用样本值来估计失效分布的参数值,是一项非常繁琐的工作。常用的估计方法是最大似然估计法,但是进行参数估计时,一般要求解联立的超越方程组,常规迭代算法收敛性差,计算结果误差大,难以得到全局最优解。为了简化计算过程,很多文献提出了各种简单的估计方法,但这些改进方法均具有一些局限性,精度也不高。鉴于此,本文提出了两种改进的算法,通过实例计算,表明经过改进的算法计算简便,结果稳定,对初值要求不严格,精度也很高。
本文就高原气候对弹药储存可靠性的影响规律进行了摸索,对国军标关于弹药储存适宜的温、湿度标准提出了疑义,给出了国内外专家和自己认为的标准,并且就如何降低湿度对弹药储存寿命的影响提出了具体的解决办法。对可靠性参数的算法进行了探索,运用改进算法对某迫击炮弹可靠性参数进行估计,求得了该迫击炮弹的失效分布为极小值分布,可靠储存寿命预测值为35年,大于国军标的规定值,也大于高原部队对该弹规定的29年的服役年限。这说明部队对该弹作出报废至少提前了6年,造成了浪费。最后对全文进行了总结,对如何提高弹药储存可靠性提出了建议。
China's ammunition storage reliability study late started, the technology is not yet ripe, but also the lack of strict regulation of ammunition life standards, and ammunition storage reliability on plateau very few. The special characteristics of the plateau climate, the impact on the reliability of munitions storage, and entirely different from the mainland, can not be applied. In particular, retiring ammunition in the plateau, no scientific basis for reference, can only be based on the authorities. If it is not storage life and discharged early, the state will cause huge economic losses to the country.if extended service, it will increase insecurity. Clearly, the reliability of munitions on the plateau is in very prominent position, it is necessary to conduct systematic research, to provide scientific basis to the ammunition stored in the plateau.
In ammunition storage reliability study, using samples to estimate the value of the parameters of failure, is very tedious work. The estimation method is commonly used maximum likelihood estimation, conventional iterative algorithm convergence of the poor, the results error, the overall situation can hardly be the optimal solution. To simplify the calculations, many of the literature estimation methods, but these are all ways to improve some limitations, the accuracy is not good. we propose two improved algorithms, the algorithm is simple, stable, not strictly on the initial request, the accuracy is good.
Plateau climate of ammunition storage reliability of the impact of a groping, put forward different views about ammunition storage temperature and humidity standards and on how to reduce humidity on the life of ammunition by a specific solution.This article shows a new algorithm for the exploration and the reliability of mortar shells parameters estimated seek the failure of the mortar shells ise minimum distribution, storage life is predictived is 35 years, bigger than the national standard requirements of military, but also larger than plateau forces under the 29 years of service.
在弹药储存可靠性研究中,利用样本值来估计失效分布的参数值,是一项非常繁琐的工作。常用的估计方法是最大似然估计法,但是进行参数估计时,一般要求解联立的超越方程组,常规迭代算法收敛性差,计算结果误差大,难以得到全局最优解。为了简化计算过程,很多文献提出了各种简单的估计方法,但这些改进方法均具有一些局限性,精度也不高。鉴于此,本文提出了两种改进的算法,通过实例计算,表明经过改进的算法计算简便,结果稳定,对初值要求不严格,精度也很高。
本文就高原气候对弹药储存可靠性的影响规律进行了摸索,对国军标关于弹药储存适宜的温、湿度标准提出了疑义,给出了国内外专家和自己认为的标准,并且就如何降低湿度对弹药储存寿命的影响提出了具体的解决办法。对可靠性参数的算法进行了探索,运用改进算法对某迫击炮弹可靠性参数进行估计,求得了该迫击炮弹的失效分布为极小值分布,可靠储存寿命预测值为35年,大于国军标的规定值,也大于高原部队对该弹规定的29年的服役年限。这说明部队对该弹作出报废至少提前了6年,造成了浪费。最后对全文进行了总结,对如何提高弹药储存可靠性提出了建议。
China's ammunition storage reliability study late started, the technology is not yet ripe, but also the lack of strict regulation of ammunition life standards, and ammunition storage reliability on plateau very few. The special characteristics of the plateau climate, the impact on the reliability of munitions storage, and entirely different from the mainland, can not be applied. In particular, retiring ammunition in the plateau, no scientific basis for reference, can only be based on the authorities. If it is not storage life and discharged early, the state will cause huge economic losses to the country.if extended service, it will increase insecurity. Clearly, the reliability of munitions on the plateau is in very prominent position, it is necessary to conduct systematic research, to provide scientific basis to the ammunition stored in the plateau.
In ammunition storage reliability study, using samples to estimate the value of the parameters of failure, is very tedious work. The estimation method is commonly used maximum likelihood estimation, conventional iterative algorithm convergence of the poor, the results error, the overall situation can hardly be the optimal solution. To simplify the calculations, many of the literature estimation methods, but these are all ways to improve some limitations, the accuracy is not good. we propose two improved algorithms, the algorithm is simple, stable, not strictly on the initial request, the accuracy is good.
Plateau climate of ammunition storage reliability of the impact of a groping, put forward different views about ammunition storage temperature and humidity standards and on how to reduce humidity on the life of ammunition by a specific solution.This article shows a new algorithm for the exploration and the reliability of mortar shells parameters estimated seek the failure of the mortar shells ise minimum distribution, storage life is predictived is 35 years, bigger than the national standard requirements of military, but also larger than plateau forces under the 29 years of service.
引文
[1]黄祥瑞.可靠性工程.北京:清华大学出版社,1990
[2]马福球,陈运生,朵英贤.火炮与自动武器.北京:北京理工大学出版社,2003
[3]G.Dean Turner.Looking Out for Ammunition.Aarm Logisticion,1984,10-13
[4]John S.Crossette.Ammunition Surveillance.Army Logisticion,1980,6-8
[5]王永会.西方国家武器装备长期贮存研究.外军军械,.1991,161-167
[6]Eugenec Martinez;Motorola Inc;Scottsdale.Storage Reliability with Periodic Test.IEEE proc.Of Ann.Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,1984,181-185
[7]Pecht Associates,Inc;Joseph Martinelli.Effect of Long-term Storage on Electronic Devices.Contrator Report ARFSD-CR-95008,1995
[8]F.Patrick MeCluskey,Edward B.Hakim,John Fink,Andre Fowler,Michael G.Pecht.Reliability Assessment of Electronic Components Exposed to Long-TerNon-operating Conditions.IEEETrans.Components,Packaging,and Manufacturing Technology,1998,21(2):352-359
[9]David G.Robinson.Reliability Degradation Due to Stockpile Aging.SAND 99-0975,1999
[10]Loren J.Wise,Ronald D.Schrimpf,Harold G.Parks,Kenneth F Galloway.A Generalized Model for theLifetime of Microelectronic Components,Applied to Storage Conditions.Microelectronics Reliability,2001(41):317-322
[11]郭世卿.探讨改革贮存可靠性研究方法与标准.兵工标准化,1994(2):26-29
[12]军械技术研究所.弹药长期储存研究报告.内部资料,1991
[13]郑波,张国安,李明.自然贮存环境下弹药系统贮存可靠性评估.质量与可靠性,2003(3):22-25
[14]刘礼宾,程维虎.阵地弹药贮存可靠性分析及试验数据处理.数理统计与应用概率,1998,13(4):374-379
[15]李长福,夏建中,王跃德,张肃平.考虑删失数据时弹药贮存可靠性评估方法研究.兵工学报,1996,17(4):303-307
[16]韩景平,王渝珠.世界军用包装动向及对策.包装工程,1999(2):勤86-89
[17]Su Bao he.On a Two-dissimilar-unir System with Three Modes and Random Check.Misroelectron Reliab,1997,37(8):1233-1238
[18]苏保河.非瞬时检测系统的最优检测策略.系统工程学报,2001,16(2):128-137
[19]王永亮,刘宝友,刘响林.特殊状态需要特殊修理的可修系统可靠性和诊断策 略研究.石家庄铁道学院,2002,15(3):28-32
[20]罗天元,周垫,余淑华,朱蕾.国外弹药贮存寿命试验与评价技术概述.装备环境工程,2005,12(4):17-22
[21]卢秋红,董少峰,张亚.弹药步进应力加速寿命试验数据处理方法探讨.探测与控制学报,2000,22(1):47-50
[22]Wayne B.Nelson.A Bibliography of Accelerated Test Plans.IEEE Trans.Reliability,2005,54(2):194-197
[23]刘春和,袁玉华,李久群.获取导弹贮存试验最佳效益的途径选择.电子产品可靠性与环境试验,2001(3):34-37
[24]弹药贮存可靠性要求.GJB25 15-95
[25]总装备部通用装备保障部,弹药质量管理学.北京:国防工业出版社,2007(2)
[26]安振涛.军械储存与环境控制.北京:兵器工业出版社,1998
[27]李明伦.弹药贮存可靠性.北京:国防工业出版社,1997
[28]潘文庚,陶敏,潘永平.航空炮弹储存可靠性统计分析.火炸药学报,2000(3):70-72
[29]李东阳,刘占岭.火工品长储失效情况分析.火工品,1996(2):28-30
[30]枪用单基发射药通用规范.GJB1246-91
[31]李良春,王红卫,谭志强.影响海岛部队弹药储存可靠性的诱因.包装工程,2002,23(6):68-70
[32]石守海,田福义,杨俊平.东南沿海地区弹药库房温湿度调控措施研究.装备环境工程,2007,4(4):56-59
[33]张忆桥.地面弹药库温度、湿度管理浅析.山西科技,2007(5):41-42
[34]李良春,杨金海.重视军械包装.包装工程,1995,16(5)
[35]曹营军,杜仕国,韩其文.火药性能对膛压及初速的影响研究.火炸药学报.2002(1):7-11
[36]黄裕龙,侯尚清.双迫型火药贮存可靠性探讨.火炸药,1994(3):23-27
[37]范臣章.切实加强弹药储存的控湿管理工作.仓储管理与技术,1990(6):35-37
[38]安振涛,胡军威,巩永校,丁玉奎.弹药密封包装内部湿度变化规律测试研究.包装工程,1994,15(1):29-32
[39]孙贵之,张余清,祁立雷,尤勇.野战条件下弹药微环境温湿度控制技术研究.装备环境工程,2005,2(4)
[40]栾大龙.装备贮存可靠性与包装技术.航空兵器,1994(4):29-31
[41]李良春,杨金海.重视军械装备包装.包装工程,1995,16(1):26-30
[42]刘光烈,朱啸宇,阵天财.炸药与装药安全技术.北京:兵器工业出版社,1995
[43]戴祥军.野战弹药防潮封存技术研究.石家庄:军械工程学院,2001
[44]普布卓玛,格央,伏阳虎.西藏高原气候概况及未来气候趋势.西藏科技,2005(11):45-48
[45]张栋,钟培道.陶春虎.失效分析.北京:国防工业出版社,2004
[46]蒋仁言,左明健.可靠性模型与应用.北京:机械工业出版社,1992
[47]谢俊杰.火炸药储存可靠性与试验评估.质量计量与标准化,1995(5):13-19
[48]章国栋.系统可靠性与维修性的分析.北京航空航天大学出版社,1990
[49]严楠.火工品失效分析概论.失效分析与预测,2006,1(1)
[50]潘文庚,王晓鸣,陶敏,李文彬.长贮弹药失效机理分析研究.弹药与制导学报,2007,27(1):122-125
[51]柯伟.中国腐蚀调查报告.北京:化学工业出版社,2003
[52]黄琼中.拉萨市环境空气质量与气象特征分析.中国环境监测,2001,17(6):50-53
[53]程德贵.步枪在高原山地条件下使用的有关问题研究.南京理工大学硕士学位论文,2007
[54]杨世坚,沈永梅.外军军事包装封存技术研究.包装工程,2006,27(3):74-76
[55]王渝株,封套包装新进展.包装科技,1998(2):8-8
[56]我国通用弹药包装容器与防护方法的现状,包装工程,2007,28(7):47
[57]朱柏清.弹药储存可靠性评估与质量监控.南京理工大学硕士论文,1988
[58]张士峰,樊树江,张金槐.成败型产品可靠性的Bayes评估.兵工学报,2001,22(2):238-240
[59]金星,洪延姬.系统可靠性评定方法.北京:国防工业出版社,2005
[60]韩明.产品可靠度的E-Bayes估计.大学数学,2007,23(3):83-87
[61]张玉春,姚俊.小样本成败试验可靠性评估方法.2006,22(3):44-46
[62]陈宜辉,姜礼平,吴树和.无信息先验下几种不同Bayes估计的比较.海军工程大学学报,2001,13(5):97-100
[63]韩明.二项分布可靠度的Bayes、多层Bayes估计.数理统计与应用概率,1996,11(3):232-239
[64]Mao Shisong,Xia,Jianfeng,The Hierarchical Ravesian Analysis of the Zero Failure Data,Applied Mathematics A Journal of Chinese University,1992,7(3),411-421
[65]Lindley.D.V,Smith A.F.M,Bayes estimaters for the linear model,J.Roy.Statist,Soc,(Ser B),1972(34):1-41
[66]韩明.多层先验分布的构造及其应用.运筹与管理.1997,6(3):31-40
[67]Berger,J.O,Ststistioal Deoision Theory and Bayesian Analysis,New York,Springer Verlag,1985
[68]徐振相,秦士嘉.火工品可靠性失效情况分析.火工品,1996(2):28-30
[69]李长福,夏建中,王跃德,张肃平.考虑删失数据时弹药贮存可靠性评估方法研究.兵工学报,1996,17(4):303-307
[70]茆诗松,周纪芗.概率论与数理统计.北京:中国统计出版社,1990
[71]Zheng Bo,Cai Fang-Ping Evaluation of System Storage Reliability.Kybernetes,2004,33(2):428-445
[72]祝逢春,王晓鸣,崔大伟,万学仁.航空弹药可靠贮存寿命评定方法.弹道学报,2007,19(1):68-71
[73]潘文庚,陈瑞,王晓鸣.库存航空弹药装药失效研究.探测与控制学报,2007,29(6):45-48
[74]毛昭勇,宋保雄,李正,胡海豹.基于遗传算法的最大似然参数优化估计.机械强度,2006,28(1):79-82
[2]马福球,陈运生,朵英贤.火炮与自动武器.北京:北京理工大学出版社,2003
[3]G.Dean Turner.Looking Out for Ammunition.Aarm Logisticion,1984,10-13
[4]John S.Crossette.Ammunition Surveillance.Army Logisticion,1980,6-8
[5]王永会.西方国家武器装备长期贮存研究.外军军械,.1991,161-167
[6]Eugenec Martinez;Motorola Inc;Scottsdale.Storage Reliability with Periodic Test.IEEE proc.Of Ann.Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,1984,181-185
[7]Pecht Associates,Inc;Joseph Martinelli.Effect of Long-term Storage on Electronic Devices.Contrator Report ARFSD-CR-95008,1995
[8]F.Patrick MeCluskey,Edward B.Hakim,John Fink,Andre Fowler,Michael G.Pecht.Reliability Assessment of Electronic Components Exposed to Long-TerNon-operating Conditions.IEEETrans.Components,Packaging,and Manufacturing Technology,1998,21(2):352-359
[9]David G.Robinson.Reliability Degradation Due to Stockpile Aging.SAND 99-0975,1999
[10]Loren J.Wise,Ronald D.Schrimpf,Harold G.Parks,Kenneth F Galloway.A Generalized Model for theLifetime of Microelectronic Components,Applied to Storage Conditions.Microelectronics Reliability,2001(41):317-322
[11]郭世卿.探讨改革贮存可靠性研究方法与标准.兵工标准化,1994(2):26-29
[12]军械技术研究所.弹药长期储存研究报告.内部资料,1991
[13]郑波,张国安,李明.自然贮存环境下弹药系统贮存可靠性评估.质量与可靠性,2003(3):22-25
[14]刘礼宾,程维虎.阵地弹药贮存可靠性分析及试验数据处理.数理统计与应用概率,1998,13(4):374-379
[15]李长福,夏建中,王跃德,张肃平.考虑删失数据时弹药贮存可靠性评估方法研究.兵工学报,1996,17(4):303-307
[16]韩景平,王渝珠.世界军用包装动向及对策.包装工程,1999(2):勤86-89
[17]Su Bao he.On a Two-dissimilar-unir System with Three Modes and Random Check.Misroelectron Reliab,1997,37(8):1233-1238
[18]苏保河.非瞬时检测系统的最优检测策略.系统工程学报,2001,16(2):128-137
[19]王永亮,刘宝友,刘响林.特殊状态需要特殊修理的可修系统可靠性和诊断策 略研究.石家庄铁道学院,2002,15(3):28-32
[20]罗天元,周垫,余淑华,朱蕾.国外弹药贮存寿命试验与评价技术概述.装备环境工程,2005,12(4):17-22
[21]卢秋红,董少峰,张亚.弹药步进应力加速寿命试验数据处理方法探讨.探测与控制学报,2000,22(1):47-50
[22]Wayne B.Nelson.A Bibliography of Accelerated Test Plans.IEEE Trans.Reliability,2005,54(2):194-197
[23]刘春和,袁玉华,李久群.获取导弹贮存试验最佳效益的途径选择.电子产品可靠性与环境试验,2001(3):34-37
[24]弹药贮存可靠性要求.GJB25 15-95
[25]总装备部通用装备保障部,弹药质量管理学.北京:国防工业出版社,2007(2)
[26]安振涛.军械储存与环境控制.北京:兵器工业出版社,1998
[27]李明伦.弹药贮存可靠性.北京:国防工业出版社,1997
[28]潘文庚,陶敏,潘永平.航空炮弹储存可靠性统计分析.火炸药学报,2000(3):70-72
[29]李东阳,刘占岭.火工品长储失效情况分析.火工品,1996(2):28-30
[30]枪用单基发射药通用规范.GJB1246-91
[31]李良春,王红卫,谭志强.影响海岛部队弹药储存可靠性的诱因.包装工程,2002,23(6):68-70
[32]石守海,田福义,杨俊平.东南沿海地区弹药库房温湿度调控措施研究.装备环境工程,2007,4(4):56-59
[33]张忆桥.地面弹药库温度、湿度管理浅析.山西科技,2007(5):41-42
[34]李良春,杨金海.重视军械包装.包装工程,1995,16(5)
[35]曹营军,杜仕国,韩其文.火药性能对膛压及初速的影响研究.火炸药学报.2002(1):7-11
[36]黄裕龙,侯尚清.双迫型火药贮存可靠性探讨.火炸药,1994(3):23-27
[37]范臣章.切实加强弹药储存的控湿管理工作.仓储管理与技术,1990(6):35-37
[38]安振涛,胡军威,巩永校,丁玉奎.弹药密封包装内部湿度变化规律测试研究.包装工程,1994,15(1):29-32
[39]孙贵之,张余清,祁立雷,尤勇.野战条件下弹药微环境温湿度控制技术研究.装备环境工程,2005,2(4)
[40]栾大龙.装备贮存可靠性与包装技术.航空兵器,1994(4):29-31
[41]李良春,杨金海.重视军械装备包装.包装工程,1995,16(1):26-30
[42]刘光烈,朱啸宇,阵天财.炸药与装药安全技术.北京:兵器工业出版社,1995
[43]戴祥军.野战弹药防潮封存技术研究.石家庄:军械工程学院,2001
[44]普布卓玛,格央,伏阳虎.西藏高原气候概况及未来气候趋势.西藏科技,2005(11):45-48
[45]张栋,钟培道.陶春虎.失效分析.北京:国防工业出版社,2004
[46]蒋仁言,左明健.可靠性模型与应用.北京:机械工业出版社,1992
[47]谢俊杰.火炸药储存可靠性与试验评估.质量计量与标准化,1995(5):13-19
[48]章国栋.系统可靠性与维修性的分析.北京航空航天大学出版社,1990
[49]严楠.火工品失效分析概论.失效分析与预测,2006,1(1)
[50]潘文庚,王晓鸣,陶敏,李文彬.长贮弹药失效机理分析研究.弹药与制导学报,2007,27(1):122-125
[51]柯伟.中国腐蚀调查报告.北京:化学工业出版社,2003
[52]黄琼中.拉萨市环境空气质量与气象特征分析.中国环境监测,2001,17(6):50-53
[53]程德贵.步枪在高原山地条件下使用的有关问题研究.南京理工大学硕士学位论文,2007
[54]杨世坚,沈永梅.外军军事包装封存技术研究.包装工程,2006,27(3):74-76
[55]王渝株,封套包装新进展.包装科技,1998(2):8-8
[56]我国通用弹药包装容器与防护方法的现状,包装工程,2007,28(7):47
[57]朱柏清.弹药储存可靠性评估与质量监控.南京理工大学硕士论文,1988
[58]张士峰,樊树江,张金槐.成败型产品可靠性的Bayes评估.兵工学报,2001,22(2):238-240
[59]金星,洪延姬.系统可靠性评定方法.北京:国防工业出版社,2005
[60]韩明.产品可靠度的E-Bayes估计.大学数学,2007,23(3):83-87
[61]张玉春,姚俊.小样本成败试验可靠性评估方法.2006,22(3):44-46
[62]陈宜辉,姜礼平,吴树和.无信息先验下几种不同Bayes估计的比较.海军工程大学学报,2001,13(5):97-100
[63]韩明.二项分布可靠度的Bayes、多层Bayes估计.数理统计与应用概率,1996,11(3):232-239
[64]Mao Shisong,Xia,Jianfeng,The Hierarchical Ravesian Analysis of the Zero Failure Data,Applied Mathematics A Journal of Chinese University,1992,7(3),411-421
[65]Lindley.D.V,Smith A.F.M,Bayes estimaters for the linear model,J.Roy.Statist,Soc,(Ser B),1972(34):1-41
[66]韩明.多层先验分布的构造及其应用.运筹与管理.1997,6(3):31-40
[67]Berger,J.O,Ststistioal Deoision Theory and Bayesian Analysis,New York,Springer Verlag,1985
[68]徐振相,秦士嘉.火工品可靠性失效情况分析.火工品,1996(2):28-30
[69]李长福,夏建中,王跃德,张肃平.考虑删失数据时弹药贮存可靠性评估方法研究.兵工学报,1996,17(4):303-307
[70]茆诗松,周纪芗.概率论与数理统计.北京:中国统计出版社,1990
[71]Zheng Bo,Cai Fang-Ping Evaluation of System Storage Reliability.Kybernetes,2004,33(2):428-445
[72]祝逢春,王晓鸣,崔大伟,万学仁.航空弹药可靠贮存寿命评定方法.弹道学报,2007,19(1):68-71
[73]潘文庚,陈瑞,王晓鸣.库存航空弹药装药失效研究.探测与控制学报,2007,29(6):45-48
[74]毛昭勇,宋保雄,李正,胡海豹.基于遗传算法的最大似然参数优化估计.机械强度,2006,28(1):79-82