国际贸易、FDI、经济增长与环境变化关系研究
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摘要
国际贸易、FDI、经济增长与环境变化关系的研究,属于可持续发展理论的研究范畴,本文在回顾其理论演变轨迹的基础上,构建了国际贸易、FDI、经济增长与环境变化的分析框架,并以浙江省为例进行了相关实证研究,提出了浙江省经济与环境协调发展的原则与对策。其核心内容有四:
第一,文献梳理。20世纪90年代以后,随着国际贸易、FDI、经济增长所导致的环境恶化以及公共环境意识的提高,关于国际贸易、FDI、经济增长对环境污染的影响问题日渐引起国内外学者们的关注,形成了不同的理论假说。本文首先上溯了这一问题的理论源流,然后从理论研究和实证分析两个方面检索了开放条件下经济增长与环境关系关系的文献,并着重对国内外关于环境库兹涅兹曲线(EKC)的相关研究成果进行整理。分析表明:虽然许多学者对相关领域进行了富有成效的研究,但EKC方法本身在指标选取、经济分析和计量方法等方面存在一些缺憾,未来的研究应侧重于对国际贸易、FDI、经济增长与环境反馈作用、经济活动与生态系统演进等问题,并在数学手段和模型上加以改进。
第二,模型构建。本文利用内生增长的经济增长模型,给出了消耗性资源约束下的一个简单的内生经济增长模型,构建了一个二部门内生增长模型,刻画了自然资源耗竭、研发创新与经济可持续增长的内在机理,是将内生经济增长理论与耗竭性资源可持续相结合的一种尝试。通过对模型的社会最优均衡分析,得到“通过增加研发部门的劳动投入推动技术进步,逐步降低生产过程中的耗竭性资源利用,减缓耗竭性资源的耗减速度,是可以实现经济的可持续增长”的政策启示。
第三,实证分析。基于理论分析结果,本文利用1985～2005年间浙江省的经济与环境数据,综合运用现代经济计量学理论中的单位根分析、协整理论、Granger因果检验、广义脉冲响应检验等最新估计方法,来实证考察我国经济发展过程中环境污染与经济增长是否存在环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线关系、以及贸易开放、FDI对经济增长、环境质量的影响效应。实证结果表明,国际贸易、FDI等开放性因素能否促进浙江省经济可持续发展的关键在于其能否带来足够的人力资本投入使得技术存量水平达到经济可持续发展的要求。
第四,对策建议。本文在前面研究的基础上,探讨了协调浙江省环境质量与对外贸易关系的对策,指出走环境与贸易协调发展的可持续发展道路、建立一系列以可持续发展为目标的“绿色”政策措施是协调环境质量与对外贸易关系的有效对策。
The study of relation among economic development, foreign trade, FDI, and environment became an important research agenda of sustainable development. Following the seminal work by western economists, this paper focuses on the relationship between economic development, foreign trade, FDI, and environment. On the basis of data available, the study of this paper takes a step in the analysis of the EKC in China. Finally, series of policy suggestions are also provided.
The western economists have some different views on the growth-environment. A literature review of both economic growth theory and economic development theory is made at first. and also the recent research development on the relationship between economic growth, trade and environment focuing on theory of EKC has been summarized. We find that although the theory of EKC is developing rapidly, there are a few of problems on model, data, index and analysis approach. In the further we should explore it from this aspects such as the relationship between world trade、FDI and environmental deterioration, economic grow and ecological system. besides making progress in the econometric models and theoretical explanations.
In the second part, a simple endogenous growth model with exhaustible resources use was established.Under the conditions of economic sustainable development and the sustainable use of exhaustible resources. Our second theoretical model analyzes the influences of educational investment on sustainable economic development.
Then this paper studies the relation among economic growth and environment with vector auto regression theory between the time series of 1985 - 2005 in Zhejiang. It draws a conclusion that there is a long-term equilibrium between foreign direct investment (FDI),international trade, economic growth and environment. The results also reveal that there is a unilateral causality between the four variables. International trade and FDI can promote economic growth, GDP per capita Granger causes pollution emission but it is not true vice versa.
Finally, The fourth part focuses on certain ways to harmonize trade and environment. And that to coordinate the economic development with environment protection.a series of“green”measures are to be adopt for sustainable growth without exerting harm to environment.
第一,文献梳理。20世纪90年代以后,随着国际贸易、FDI、经济增长所导致的环境恶化以及公共环境意识的提高,关于国际贸易、FDI、经济增长对环境污染的影响问题日渐引起国内外学者们的关注,形成了不同的理论假说。本文首先上溯了这一问题的理论源流,然后从理论研究和实证分析两个方面检索了开放条件下经济增长与环境关系关系的文献,并着重对国内外关于环境库兹涅兹曲线(EKC)的相关研究成果进行整理。分析表明:虽然许多学者对相关领域进行了富有成效的研究,但EKC方法本身在指标选取、经济分析和计量方法等方面存在一些缺憾,未来的研究应侧重于对国际贸易、FDI、经济增长与环境反馈作用、经济活动与生态系统演进等问题,并在数学手段和模型上加以改进。
第二,模型构建。本文利用内生增长的经济增长模型,给出了消耗性资源约束下的一个简单的内生经济增长模型,构建了一个二部门内生增长模型,刻画了自然资源耗竭、研发创新与经济可持续增长的内在机理,是将内生经济增长理论与耗竭性资源可持续相结合的一种尝试。通过对模型的社会最优均衡分析,得到“通过增加研发部门的劳动投入推动技术进步,逐步降低生产过程中的耗竭性资源利用,减缓耗竭性资源的耗减速度,是可以实现经济的可持续增长”的政策启示。
第三,实证分析。基于理论分析结果,本文利用1985～2005年间浙江省的经济与环境数据,综合运用现代经济计量学理论中的单位根分析、协整理论、Granger因果检验、广义脉冲响应检验等最新估计方法,来实证考察我国经济发展过程中环境污染与经济增长是否存在环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线关系、以及贸易开放、FDI对经济增长、环境质量的影响效应。实证结果表明,国际贸易、FDI等开放性因素能否促进浙江省经济可持续发展的关键在于其能否带来足够的人力资本投入使得技术存量水平达到经济可持续发展的要求。
第四,对策建议。本文在前面研究的基础上,探讨了协调浙江省环境质量与对外贸易关系的对策,指出走环境与贸易协调发展的可持续发展道路、建立一系列以可持续发展为目标的“绿色”政策措施是协调环境质量与对外贸易关系的有效对策。
The study of relation among economic development, foreign trade, FDI, and environment became an important research agenda of sustainable development. Following the seminal work by western economists, this paper focuses on the relationship between economic development, foreign trade, FDI, and environment. On the basis of data available, the study of this paper takes a step in the analysis of the EKC in China. Finally, series of policy suggestions are also provided.
The western economists have some different views on the growth-environment. A literature review of both economic growth theory and economic development theory is made at first. and also the recent research development on the relationship between economic growth, trade and environment focuing on theory of EKC has been summarized. We find that although the theory of EKC is developing rapidly, there are a few of problems on model, data, index and analysis approach. In the further we should explore it from this aspects such as the relationship between world trade、FDI and environmental deterioration, economic grow and ecological system. besides making progress in the econometric models and theoretical explanations.
In the second part, a simple endogenous growth model with exhaustible resources use was established.Under the conditions of economic sustainable development and the sustainable use of exhaustible resources. Our second theoretical model analyzes the influences of educational investment on sustainable economic development.
Then this paper studies the relation among economic growth and environment with vector auto regression theory between the time series of 1985 - 2005 in Zhejiang. It draws a conclusion that there is a long-term equilibrium between foreign direct investment (FDI),international trade, economic growth and environment. The results also reveal that there is a unilateral causality between the four variables. International trade and FDI can promote economic growth, GDP per capita Granger causes pollution emission but it is not true vice versa.
Finally, The fourth part focuses on certain ways to harmonize trade and environment. And that to coordinate the economic development with environment protection.a series of“green”measures are to be adopt for sustainable growth without exerting harm to environment.
引文
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[14]赵玉涣.贸易与环境协调问题研究[C].对外经济贸易大学.2001.
[15][英]亚当·斯密.国富论[M],北京:商务印书馆,1974.
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[25](美)保罗﹒克鲁格曼著.克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论.北京:中国社会科学出版社.2001.
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[27](美)保罗﹒克鲁格曼著.克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论.北京:中国社会科学出版社.2001.
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[29]赵丽红,拉美和加勒比地区的资源环境问题与可持续发展[J].拉丁美洲研究,2005,6:22-31.
[30]贸发会议.2006年世界投资报告:来自发展中经济体和转型经济体的外商直接投资:对发展的影响[OE/B].www.unctad.org/fdistatistics.
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[34]赵细康.环境保护与产业国际竞争力[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社, 2003.
[35]赵玉焕.贸易与环境[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社, 2002.
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[49]凌亢,王浣尘,刘涛.城市经济发展与环境污染关系的统计研究—以南京市为例[J].统计研究,2001,10:46-51.
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