创业者过度自信与创业绩效关系的研究
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摘要
随着国际金融危机引发的全球经济衰退蔓延，国内外市场环境出现了明显变化：传统的中国制造受到人力、土地、能源、环境等资源环境因素的制约，迫切需要通过创新创业实现经济持续增长和产业稳定转型。然而，尽管近年来中国的创业活动正处于活跃状态，新一轮的创业高潮正在形成，中国创业企业的失败率却高达70%以上，平均企业寿命不足三年，七成企业活不过一年，远低于发达国家同类指标（创业当年就失败了的新企业仅占35%，活过五年的也能达到30%）。纵使创业者为他们初创企业倾尽心血，创业成功依然是小概率事件，寥若晨星的成功者是否具有共性，对此理论界和实业界都无定论。这些现象为我们进行针对创业者行为的研究提出了新的课题和挑战。
本文试图重点研究创业者对于未来事业的过度自信(Overconfidence)特征，其执着坚持抑或高估未来，可能是促使他们不断前行的根本原因之一。虽然有研究指出这种非理性行为很可能就是新创事业高失败率的主因(Hayward et al2006)，但从另外的角度看，过度自信的坚持却可能增加了创新的机会，并且某些创业者的成功而为社会带来一些重要的非凡创新(extraordinaryinnovation)。因而我们面临的挑战是，到底哪些因素最终影响这些创业者的过度自信？如何探寻并界定最优水平的过度自信？以及过度自信对创业绩效的影响机理是什么？我们的研究希望能够对这些问题进行解答。
本文力图解决如下主要问题：第一，发现创业者过度自信行为的组成要素，在探讨其非理性的同时，探索影响过度自信的多元因素；第二，创业者的过度自信与创业绩效之间的关系；第三，对于上述要素和关系给予实践印证和支持，达到理论与实践的统一。
本研究首先进行了系统的理论综述和比较归纳，说明目前国内外创业者过度自信和创业绩效研究的现状、问题与未来的方向，需要进一步的研究内容和方法使用。随后针对本文的主要研究问题，结合数量分析和定性研究的方法，设计合理的研究框架和思路。主要研究内容和结论包括了：
第一，构建起过度自信和创业绩效之间的关系概念模型。从创业者非理性、过度自信特征、创业者的能力以及外部环境等概念出发，构建了关于过度自信与创业绩效的关系概念图，通过创业者能力作为中介变量，同时考虑外部环境的调节作用。
第二，从博弈模型的角度对过度自信与创业绩效的关系进行理论探讨。通过行为博弈的方法寻找最佳的过度自信程度水平。
第三，结合上海市一些创业的数据以及创业者的行为进行了实证研究。发现过度自信对创业绩效有部分性的影响，同时创业者能力对过度自信与创业绩效的关系有着部分中介效应。也发现外部环境对过度自信与创业绩效之间有部分调节作用。
最后，通过扎根分析和对其中重要变量过度自信的研究，证明了文章提出假说的部分合理性和正确性。同时也看到了，在决定一个创业成功的过程中，什么样的因素起到关键影响。
本文研究发现，过度自信普遍存在于创业者中，但是会随着创业难度以及人自身的差别而不同，最终成功者的过度自信低于最终失败者的过度自信，所以创业者的过度自信是存在一个最优水平，位于该值附近，创业者即有勇气开拓新的事业，也可以避免过度的盲目自大而导致最终失败。
本文研究发现，过度自信与创业绩效之间关系并非是完全显著，只是发现缓慢适应对创业绩效有着直接的影响，而失真适应有着部分的影响，差劲记忆并没有很显著的关系。说明创业者对挫折的缓慢感应以及超乎常人的想象力，更容易获得成功。
本文研究发现，经验学习对创业者的创业绩效有着显著的影响，这说明创业者的前期积累以及后期的学习是必不可少的，同时利用好自己的社会网络对过度自信的改进是会有很大的好处。
本文创新之处在于：在延伸和发展C&L实验的基础上，考虑了创业者非理性、过度自信特征、创业者能力以及外部环境等概念，并在新条件下研究了过度自信与市场进入决策的交互关系。研究以批判角度针贬目前商业媒体一些流行看法。当今主流商业媒体都强调高适应力、高弹性以及快速学习的重要性。本研究重拾了中国文化的传统智慧，强调缓慢适应(slow adaptation)、失真适应(imprecise adaptation)与差劲记忆(poor memory)等过度自信行为在一定程度上是社会长期繁盛之道。
本文管理实践意义在于：(1)创业管理：了解导致个体非理性的因素，创业者将更有效检视自己是否“过度自信”，从一定意义上增加创业成功的可能性；(2)创投管理：了解导致个体非理性的因素，有助于创业投资的组织或者个人更有效评估一个创业专案成功的可能性，并给予个别专案适当的建议；(3)科技政策：了解导致社会非理性最优水平的因素，政府及各级管理部门将更可能提出适当的科技政策，以期达到更高的社会福利水准。
Accompanying the global financial crisis and economic downturn, the Chinese market isexperiencing changes. The traditional Chinese manufacture model has been constrained by human, land,energy and environmental factors, which urgently require innovation and entrepreneurship to maintainthe country’s fast and sustainable economic growth and industrial transformation. Though in recentyears, entrepreneurial activities have been very active in China, the failure rate is above70%forChinese entrepreneur firms. The average lifespan of new firms is less than three years, and70%of thenew firms cannot survive the first year. In contrast, in developed economies,35%of the new firms failin the first year, and30%survive for more than five years. Though entrepreneurs devoted all theirresources and energy in their firms, success has only been a small probability event. Academics andpractisioners have not reached consensus regarding whether there are commonalities for success.These phenomena have posed new issues and challenges for us to research on the behavior ofentrepreneurs.
This study examines the characteristics of overaconfidence (i.e., over-value the future outcomes) ofentrepreneurs, which may be one of the key reasons for their persistence. Although studies show thatthe irrational behavior can be the main reason for a high failure rate of the business (Hayward et al.,2006), overconfidence may increase the chance of innovation, and moreover some enterpreneurs’success may bring about important “extraordinary innovation”. Thus in this study, we try to answer thefollowing key questions: what influences the entrepreneur’s overconfidence? How to define the optimallevel of overconfidence? How does overconfidence affect entrepreneurial performance?
This study will examine three main issues: firstly, I explore the main elements for entrepreneurialoverconfidence. I look at irrationality of overconfidence, and multiple factors of overconfidence.Secondly, I examine the relationship between overconfidence and enterpreneurial performance.Thirdly,based on the above discussion, I present empirical findings, and discuss practical implications.
This study makes a thorough and systematic overview of relevant theories. It shows the researchstatus in overconfidence and entrepreneurial performance of domestic and foreign entrepreneurs, andthe existing issues, and further poses the research questions and suggests the research methods. Then,this study integrates qualitative and quantitative methods, and analyzes the data. The main contents andconclusionsare the following:
Firstly, I construct a conceptual model/framework of the relationship between overconfidence andentrepreneurial performance, using the concepts of entrepreneurial irrationality, characteristics of overconfidence, entrepreneurial capabilities and the external environment. I suggest thatentrepreneurial capabilities are the mediator connecting overconfidence and entrepreneurialperformance, and this relationship is moderated by the external environment.
Secondly, I discuss overconfidence and entrepreneurial performance from the perspective of gametheory. I use behavioral game theory to explore the best level of overconfidence.
Thirdly, based on secondary data of entrepreneurial activities in Shanghai, I find relationshipsbetween the main factors. Specifically, I find that overconfidence has a partial effect on entrepreneurialperformance, entrepreneurial capabilities partially mediate that effect, and the external environmentpartially moderates the effect of overconfidence on entrepreneurial performance.
Finally, based on the empirical evidence, I discuss the relevance and usefulness of the hypotheses inthis study, in particular, what are the determinants of success in an entrepreneurial activity.
This study finds that overconfidence is prevalent among entrepreneurs, but it differs depending onthe difficulty of new venture and the individual. Overconfidence among successors is lower thanamong failures. So there is a best level of overconfidence. When around the best level, the entrepreneurcan both have the courage to create the new venture and avoid overconfidence leading to failure.
This research finds that there is not an absolute significant effect between overconfidence andentrepreneurial performance. I find that slow adaption has a direct effect on entrepreneurialperformance, imprecise adaption has a partial effect, and poor memory has no effect. This indicates thatthe entrepreneur is more likely to succeed when slow adaptation and imagination beyond the normalare present.
This research finds that experiencial learning has a positive impact on entrepreneurial performance.This indicates that early experience and latter learning is indispensible. It is benefitial foroverconfidence improvement when the entrepreneur can utilize his/her social network.
This study makes the following contributions. By extending and developing the C&L experiment,this study examines constructs such as entrepreneurial irrationality, overconfidence, entrepreneurialability and external environment. It also examines the interaction effect of overconfidence and themarket entry decision; This study looks critically at some popular opinions in the business media thatgives emphasis on high adaptation, high flexibility and fast learning. I review traditional wisdom of theChinese culture, and emphasize that overconfidence, which includes slow adaptation, impreciseadaptation, and poor memory, is critical to long-term social prosperity.
Practically, it contributes to:(1) entrepreneurial management. Understanding the causes of individual irrationality can help the entrepreneurs to be more effective in reviewing whether they are"overconfident", and thus increasing their chance of success;(2) venture capital management.Understanding the causes of individual irrationality can help venture capital organizations and venturecapitalists to better assess the likelihood of success of a venture project, and give appropriate advice toindividual projects;(3) science and technology policy. Understanding the casuses of the optimal levelof social irrationality can facilitate the government of all levels to formulate appropriate technologypolicies in order to achieve a higher level of social welfare.
本文试图重点研究创业者对于未来事业的过度自信(Overconfidence)特征，其执着坚持抑或高估未来，可能是促使他们不断前行的根本原因之一。虽然有研究指出这种非理性行为很可能就是新创事业高失败率的主因(Hayward et al2006)，但从另外的角度看，过度自信的坚持却可能增加了创新的机会，并且某些创业者的成功而为社会带来一些重要的非凡创新(extraordinaryinnovation)。因而我们面临的挑战是，到底哪些因素最终影响这些创业者的过度自信？如何探寻并界定最优水平的过度自信？以及过度自信对创业绩效的影响机理是什么？我们的研究希望能够对这些问题进行解答。
本文力图解决如下主要问题：第一，发现创业者过度自信行为的组成要素，在探讨其非理性的同时，探索影响过度自信的多元因素；第二，创业者的过度自信与创业绩效之间的关系；第三，对于上述要素和关系给予实践印证和支持，达到理论与实践的统一。
本研究首先进行了系统的理论综述和比较归纳，说明目前国内外创业者过度自信和创业绩效研究的现状、问题与未来的方向，需要进一步的研究内容和方法使用。随后针对本文的主要研究问题，结合数量分析和定性研究的方法，设计合理的研究框架和思路。主要研究内容和结论包括了：
第一，构建起过度自信和创业绩效之间的关系概念模型。从创业者非理性、过度自信特征、创业者的能力以及外部环境等概念出发，构建了关于过度自信与创业绩效的关系概念图，通过创业者能力作为中介变量，同时考虑外部环境的调节作用。
第二，从博弈模型的角度对过度自信与创业绩效的关系进行理论探讨。通过行为博弈的方法寻找最佳的过度自信程度水平。
第三，结合上海市一些创业的数据以及创业者的行为进行了实证研究。发现过度自信对创业绩效有部分性的影响，同时创业者能力对过度自信与创业绩效的关系有着部分中介效应。也发现外部环境对过度自信与创业绩效之间有部分调节作用。
最后，通过扎根分析和对其中重要变量过度自信的研究，证明了文章提出假说的部分合理性和正确性。同时也看到了，在决定一个创业成功的过程中，什么样的因素起到关键影响。
本文研究发现，过度自信普遍存在于创业者中，但是会随着创业难度以及人自身的差别而不同，最终成功者的过度自信低于最终失败者的过度自信，所以创业者的过度自信是存在一个最优水平，位于该值附近，创业者即有勇气开拓新的事业，也可以避免过度的盲目自大而导致最终失败。
本文研究发现，过度自信与创业绩效之间关系并非是完全显著，只是发现缓慢适应对创业绩效有着直接的影响，而失真适应有着部分的影响，差劲记忆并没有很显著的关系。说明创业者对挫折的缓慢感应以及超乎常人的想象力，更容易获得成功。
本文研究发现，经验学习对创业者的创业绩效有着显著的影响，这说明创业者的前期积累以及后期的学习是必不可少的，同时利用好自己的社会网络对过度自信的改进是会有很大的好处。
本文创新之处在于：在延伸和发展C&L实验的基础上，考虑了创业者非理性、过度自信特征、创业者能力以及外部环境等概念，并在新条件下研究了过度自信与市场进入决策的交互关系。研究以批判角度针贬目前商业媒体一些流行看法。当今主流商业媒体都强调高适应力、高弹性以及快速学习的重要性。本研究重拾了中国文化的传统智慧，强调缓慢适应(slow adaptation)、失真适应(imprecise adaptation)与差劲记忆(poor memory)等过度自信行为在一定程度上是社会长期繁盛之道。
本文管理实践意义在于：(1)创业管理：了解导致个体非理性的因素，创业者将更有效检视自己是否“过度自信”，从一定意义上增加创业成功的可能性；(2)创投管理：了解导致个体非理性的因素，有助于创业投资的组织或者个人更有效评估一个创业专案成功的可能性，并给予个别专案适当的建议；(3)科技政策：了解导致社会非理性最优水平的因素，政府及各级管理部门将更可能提出适当的科技政策，以期达到更高的社会福利水准。
Accompanying the global financial crisis and economic downturn, the Chinese market isexperiencing changes. The traditional Chinese manufacture model has been constrained by human, land,energy and environmental factors, which urgently require innovation and entrepreneurship to maintainthe country’s fast and sustainable economic growth and industrial transformation. Though in recentyears, entrepreneurial activities have been very active in China, the failure rate is above70%forChinese entrepreneur firms. The average lifespan of new firms is less than three years, and70%of thenew firms cannot survive the first year. In contrast, in developed economies,35%of the new firms failin the first year, and30%survive for more than five years. Though entrepreneurs devoted all theirresources and energy in their firms, success has only been a small probability event. Academics andpractisioners have not reached consensus regarding whether there are commonalities for success.These phenomena have posed new issues and challenges for us to research on the behavior ofentrepreneurs.
This study examines the characteristics of overaconfidence (i.e., over-value the future outcomes) ofentrepreneurs, which may be one of the key reasons for their persistence. Although studies show thatthe irrational behavior can be the main reason for a high failure rate of the business (Hayward et al.,2006), overconfidence may increase the chance of innovation, and moreover some enterpreneurs’success may bring about important “extraordinary innovation”. Thus in this study, we try to answer thefollowing key questions: what influences the entrepreneur’s overconfidence? How to define the optimallevel of overconfidence? How does overconfidence affect entrepreneurial performance?
This study will examine three main issues: firstly, I explore the main elements for entrepreneurialoverconfidence. I look at irrationality of overconfidence, and multiple factors of overconfidence.Secondly, I examine the relationship between overconfidence and enterpreneurial performance.Thirdly,based on the above discussion, I present empirical findings, and discuss practical implications.
This study makes a thorough and systematic overview of relevant theories. It shows the researchstatus in overconfidence and entrepreneurial performance of domestic and foreign entrepreneurs, andthe existing issues, and further poses the research questions and suggests the research methods. Then,this study integrates qualitative and quantitative methods, and analyzes the data. The main contents andconclusionsare the following:
Firstly, I construct a conceptual model/framework of the relationship between overconfidence andentrepreneurial performance, using the concepts of entrepreneurial irrationality, characteristics of overconfidence, entrepreneurial capabilities and the external environment. I suggest thatentrepreneurial capabilities are the mediator connecting overconfidence and entrepreneurialperformance, and this relationship is moderated by the external environment.
Secondly, I discuss overconfidence and entrepreneurial performance from the perspective of gametheory. I use behavioral game theory to explore the best level of overconfidence.
Thirdly, based on secondary data of entrepreneurial activities in Shanghai, I find relationshipsbetween the main factors. Specifically, I find that overconfidence has a partial effect on entrepreneurialperformance, entrepreneurial capabilities partially mediate that effect, and the external environmentpartially moderates the effect of overconfidence on entrepreneurial performance.
Finally, based on the empirical evidence, I discuss the relevance and usefulness of the hypotheses inthis study, in particular, what are the determinants of success in an entrepreneurial activity.
This study finds that overconfidence is prevalent among entrepreneurs, but it differs depending onthe difficulty of new venture and the individual. Overconfidence among successors is lower thanamong failures. So there is a best level of overconfidence. When around the best level, the entrepreneurcan both have the courage to create the new venture and avoid overconfidence leading to failure.
This research finds that there is not an absolute significant effect between overconfidence andentrepreneurial performance. I find that slow adaption has a direct effect on entrepreneurialperformance, imprecise adaption has a partial effect, and poor memory has no effect. This indicates thatthe entrepreneur is more likely to succeed when slow adaptation and imagination beyond the normalare present.
This research finds that experiencial learning has a positive impact on entrepreneurial performance.This indicates that early experience and latter learning is indispensible. It is benefitial foroverconfidence improvement when the entrepreneur can utilize his/her social network.
This study makes the following contributions. By extending and developing the C&L experiment,this study examines constructs such as entrepreneurial irrationality, overconfidence, entrepreneurialability and external environment. It also examines the interaction effect of overconfidence and themarket entry decision; This study looks critically at some popular opinions in the business media thatgives emphasis on high adaptation, high flexibility and fast learning. I review traditional wisdom of theChinese culture, and emphasize that overconfidence, which includes slow adaptation, impreciseadaptation, and poor memory, is critical to long-term social prosperity.
Practically, it contributes to:(1) entrepreneurial management. Understanding the causes of individual irrationality can help the entrepreneurs to be more effective in reviewing whether they are"overconfident", and thus increasing their chance of success;(2) venture capital management.Understanding the causes of individual irrationality can help venture capital organizations and venturecapitalists to better assess the likelihood of success of a venture project, and give appropriate advice toindividual projects;(3) science and technology policy. Understanding the casuses of the optimal levelof social irrationality can facilitate the government of all levels to formulate appropriate technologypolicies in order to achieve a higher level of social welfare.
引文
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