中国地区经济发展水平差距调控机制的数量研究
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摘要
新中国成立以来,特别是改革开放以来,中国经济高速增长。1978-2009年国内生产总值年均增长9%,人均GDP平均每年也增长8%以上,人均收入大幅提高,人们生活水平逐步改善,创造了举世瞩目的“中国奇迹”。与此同时,我国区域经济也进入总体高增长时期,各地区经济总量和人均量快速增加,对我国国民经济持续、快速、健康发展起到了重要作用。但由于我国面积辽阔,民族众多,社会、风俗、文化差异较大,受历史传统、区域禀赋、地理位置、优惠政策等众多因素的影响,中国区域经济发展很不平衡,各地区之间还存在较大差距,地区经济差距逐渐成为制约我国经济和谐健康持续发展的重要问题。如何正确面对地区经济差距的变化,缩小地区经济差距,促进我国及各地区经济和谐、健康、持续发展,已成为我国经济学界、实业界以及政府关注的热点问题。
本文在整合增长理论、发展经济学理论、贸易理论的基础上,力图系统全面地分析地区经济差距的变化成因、趋势和形成机制,探讨地区经济差距转化的动力和途径,着力研究地区经济差距的调控机制,希望对区域发展决策者做出理性决策有所助益。
本文以地区经济差距为研究对象,以地区经济差距的调控机制为研究的核心问题。分析地区经济差距成因变动趋势对认识地区经济差距,理解地区差距形成的规律有一定的益处,但要解决现实问题需要寻求实际的方式和方法,这就要求对调控机制进行研究。
地区经济差距包含两个层次的含义,一是地区经济发展水平的差距,二是地区经济增长速度的差距。这两个差距是相互关联的,经济增长速度差距的减小只是缩小地区经济差距的必要条件,并不一定能带来地区经济差距的减小
理论模型是对现实世界的简化,便于对问题的理解和本质的把握,但实际的可操作性却十分有限。这种特性在地区经济差距的研究中表现得十分突出。由于受理论的限制,对地区经济差距的研究往往局限于一个简化的经济体系。现实中,影响经济的各要素之间联系广泛而深刻。为了达到调控地区经济差距的实际效果,以理论模型为基础,实证模型充分真实还原客观经济世界就是必须的。
基于上述认识,本文主要围绕以下五个中心问题展开研究。
一、本文研究对象——地区经济差距。研究地区经济差距演变特征、地区特征和产业特征等。
二、地区经济差距调控的目标。调控地区经济差距,就是使其在一个适度的区间内波动,而判定其是否适度,需要兼顾社会方方面面的因素。
三、地区经济差距调控的变量。调控变量即地区经济差距的影响因素。调控变量的选择有两个标准：一是影响地区经济增长,二是影响地区经济差距的收敛性。
四、地区经济差距调控的机理。这是本文调控地区差距的理论基础,调控机理依赖于地区差距的收敛性特别是β收敛是否成立。
五、地区经济差距调控的措施。就是量化调控变量的调控力度,以实现地区经济差距的调控目标。
本文围绕上述中心问题,分别加以分析和研究,研究框架如下：
第一章导论,说明了论文研究的目的和意义,要解决的中心问题,论文的章节结构以及本文的创新和不足。
第二章理论综述。本章系统梳理了国内外有关区域发展、地区经济差距的增长理论、发展经济学理论和贸易理论,对不同学派的观点进行了归纳和评论。对已有的研究中国地区差距的文献和资料进行检索和分析,归纳出已有研究中国地区差距的成果和研究程度。对本文的基本理论前提进行了重点研究,厘清了理论前提在本文对我国地区经济发展差距的实际研究工作的重要价值和存在的缺陷。
第三章研究我国地区经济差距演变的特征。首先确定了地区经济发展水平的衡量指标,在此基础之上,用多种方法测度1978年以来我国地区经济差距,多种测度方法得出较为一致的结论。1990年以前我国地区经济差距明显减小,进入20世纪90年代,地区经济差距逐步扩大,到2003年,地区经济差距又有下降的趋势,但由于时间较短,这个趋势的走向还并不明确。其次,分别运用泰尔指数和基尼系数对我国地区经济差距按地域和产业进行分解,分析了地区内差距、地区间差距以及产业集中指数对整体差距的影响,特别说明了产业集中指数变化的结构效应和集中效应对地区经济差距的影响。
第四章研究地区经济差距调控目标。本章从地区经济差距和经济增长的关系的角度出发,寻求地区经济差距的调控目标。首先从理论上阐明了地区经济差距和经济增长之间的关系。其次,以全国人均GDP增长率作为经济增长的指标,用基尼系数刻画地区经济差距进行实证研究。由于单位根检验时,全国人均GDP增长率为趋势平稳,而基尼系数为I(1),这说明地区经济差距和经济增长之间不存在确定的线性关系,可能是地区经济差距和经济增长存在非线性关系。通过对基尼系数二次项的单位根检验,基尼系数二次项也为I(1)。通过协整检验,说明全国人均GDP增长率、基尼系数以及基尼系数二次项之间存在协整关系,即全国人均GDP增长率和地区基尼系数是二次曲线的关系,并通过二次曲线模型的回归求解,得出我国改革开放以来地区经济差距警戒线为基尼系数值0.314。依据我国今后的宏观经济的走势,确定地区经济差距的适度区间为0.273-0.286。
第五章研究地区经济差距调控变量。本章研究目的是寻求可能影响地区经济差距的因素。地区经济增长的影响因素是可能的影响地区经济差距的因素。本章从经济增长核算的角度研究地区经济增长的影响因素。影响地区经济增长的因素众多,但归根到底,是投入要素和技术进步的差异引起的,其他因素通过影响投入要素和技术进步而影响地区经济增长。因此全要素生产率(TFP)和资本、劳动就应该特别引起关注。本章运用GLS法(cross-section SUR)对变系数Panel Data模型进行估计,得到生产函数规模报酬不变的各省的生产函数。在此基础上分析全要素生产率和资本、劳动在区域之间的差异,说明改革开放以来,地区经济增长主要是资本增长积累推动的,劳动投入对地区经济增长的影响较小,全要素生产率的地区差距是导致地区经济差距扩大的重要因素。其他影响因素大多是通过影响全要素生产率而作用于经济增长,通过实证分析人力资本、产业结构、外贸依存度和市场化程度等因素在不同时段上对全要素生产率的作用不同。本章从生产函数和TFP两个方面进行分析,最终确定了六个影响地区经济增长的变量：资本存量(K)、人力资本(HUM)、开放程度(IMEX)、政府规模(GOV)、市场机制(MARKET)、产业结构(INDUSTRY)。这些变量虽然影响地区经济经增长,但对并不一定会影响地区经济差距。这六个变量是可能的地区差距的调控变量,其是否进入调控模型,还有待下一章,将这些变量作为稳态控制变量,检验其对地区经济收敛性的影响是否显著。
第六章研究地区经济差距的调控机理。本章研究有两个目的,一是检验我国地区经济差距是否存在收敛性,条件收敛是地区经济差距调控的理论基础,也是地区经济差距的调控机理。二是检验第五章初步确定的六个控制变量对地区经济差距收敛性的影响的是否显著。本章首先分析经济增长收敛性的理论基础——新古典增长理论和技术追赶模型。新古典增长理论和技术追赶模型阐明了可以通过调控稳态和生产、偏好参数来改变经济稳态和技术增长路径,从而达到调控地区经济增长速度,进而影响地区经济差距的机理。在实证方面,运用截面模型和Panel Data模型检验说明中国地区经济差距不存在绝对β收敛,存在条件β收敛和“俱乐部”收敛。同时说明决定经济稳态的因素如人力资本、市场化改革、对外开放、政府的作用、产业结构对地区经济差距的变化有显著的影响,可以作为地区经济差距的调控变量。在此基础上,进一步从实证的角度说明了技术收敛机制和资本收敛机制在不同时期的发挥不同的作用。
第七章研究地区差经济距的调控措施。首先构建地区经济差距调控模型(地区差距的影响因素模型),分1978-1991年和1992-2009年两个时段研究地区经济差距的调控措施。采用变量替代分解的方式和主成分回归法解决模型存在的多重共线性问题。根据模型回归的结果,研究了地区经济差距的调控力度和变量调控的难易程度等问题。人力资本对地区经济差距的调控力度最大,而实物资本的调控难以程度最小。
第八章是本文的总结。包括本文的若干结论、政策建议和研究展望。
本文系统地研究了中国地区经济差距的现状、趋势、构成,在此基础之上探讨地区经济差距和经济增长之间的关系,分析地区经济差距的影响因素,对地区经济增长收敛机制和地区经济差距的调控机制进行深入研究,并提出了相应的政策建议,本文在以下几个方面做出了一些工作：
第一,揭示了地区经济差距的阶段性特征。我国地区经济差距以1990年和2003年为拐点,呈倒“S”型变化。1978-1990年,地区经济差距逐年下降,1991-2002年地区差距快速上升,2003年后,地区差距又呈下降趋势。
第二、论证了地区经济差距调控的适当目标。本文研究表明人均GDP增长率与基尼系数及基尼系数平方项存在协整关系,人均GDP增长率与基尼系数二次曲线关系成立,得出我国改革开放以来地区经济差距警戒线为基尼系数值0.314,依据我国今后的宏观经济的走势,确定地区经济差距的适度区间为0.273-0.286。
第三,分析检验了地区经济差距的主要影响因素是：实物资本、人力资本、外贸依存度和市场化率。其中,实物资本的影响程度最大,市场化率外贸依存度对地区经济差距的影响显著,作用日益加强。
第四,本文对地区经济差距调控机制进行了深入研究,主要结论是：调控力度方面,人力资本的调控力度最大。地区经济差距(基尼系数)下降0.001,人力资本、实物资本、市场化率、外贸依存度的地区差距(变异系数)分别需下降0.00196、0.00395、0.00442、0.04167。调控难易程度方面,实物资本调控难度最小。地区经济差距下降0.001,实物资本、人均人力资本、市场化率和外贸依存度的地区差距(变异系数)分别需减小0.63%、1.57%、1.18%、2.34%。
本文还存在一些不足之处,一是对地区经济差距与经济增长关系的理论研究尚有欠缺,二是研究地区经济联系对地区差距的影响不够深入。这有待日后进一步深入探索和研究。
Since the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening up, China's economy develops with a high speed. Between the year1978to2009, the average annual GDP growth was9%, GDP growed more than8%per capita average annual, and per capita income raised substantially, people's living standards improved gradually, creating a remarkable "China miracle". At the same time, China's regional economy stepped into the overall high growth period, and a rapid increase in total economic output and per capita amount in each region had been seen, playing an important role in China's sustained, rapid and healthy development. However, since China has a vast area with many ethnic groups, society, customs, cultural differences, historical traditions, and regional endowments, plus the impact of a number of factors such as geographic location and preferential policies, China's regional economic development is very uneven among regions and there is still large gap between regions which gradually becomes an important problem constraining the healthy and sustainable development of China's economic harmony. Therefore, how to correctly face the changes of regional disparities, reduce regional economic development gap and promote the harmony, sustainable development of our country and the region's economy becomes hot issues that China's economic circles, business community as well as the Government concern about.
This paper bases on integration of growth theory, the theory of international trade and development economics, tries to do a comprehensive analysis of the cause, change trends and the formation mechanism of regional disparities, the power and means of the transforming of regional disparities as well as regulatory mechanism of regional disparities, aiming at help regional development policy-makers to make a rational decision-making.
This paper takes regional economic disparities as the research object and the regulatory mechanism of the regional economic gap as the core issues. The trend analysis of regional disparities causes is conductive to the understanding of regional economic disparities and the law of the regional gap, but there is still need to find practical ways and means to solve the real problem, which requires studies about regulatory mechanism.
Regional economic gap contains two levels of meaning, the gap of the level of regional economic development, and the gap of the rate of economic growth in the region. These two gaps are interrelated and the change of the economic growth rate is just the necessary conditions of narrowing the economic gap between the region, while the change of the economic growth rate gap between the region does not necessarily promote regional economic development gap narrowing.
The theoretical model is a simplification of the real world to facilitate the understanding of some of the problems, but the actual operability is very limited. This limitation is very prominent in the study of regional economic disparities. Limited by theory, the study of the region's economic growth rate gap is generally limited to a closed economic environment, in the same time, in reality, the economic ties between the regions is extensive and profound, therefore the regulation of the economic growth rate at this time is quite different and even more realistic than the real way.
Based on the above understanding, this paper aims to address the following five central issues:
First, the object of this paper is regional economic disparities. The study aims at evolution characteristics of area economic disparities, regional characteristics and industry characteristics.
Second, the goal of regional economic disparities regulation. The regulation of regional economic disparities is to make a modest range fluctuations, to determine whether it is moderate need to take into account the social aspects of the factors.
Third, the variables of regional economic gap control. Regulating variable is the factor that affects the regional economic disparities. The selection of regulating variable has two criteria:the impact of regional economic growth and the impact of the convergence of regional economic disparities.
Fourth, the regulation mechanism of regional economic disparities. This is the theoretical basis of regulation of regional disparities in the paper, the regulation mechanism relies on the convergence of regional disparities especially whether β convergence is substantiated.
Fifth, the measures of regional economic gap between the regulation. That is quantified regulation variable control efforts to achieve the control objectives of the regional economic disparities.
This paper analyses and researches based on the central issue and research framework is as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction with description of the purpose and significance of the thesis, the central issue to be resolved, the section of the paper structure and innovation of this paper and deficiencies.
The second chapter is a theoretical overview. This chapter systematically combs the theory of economic growth of the region, development economics and trade theory in domestic and foreign areas, summarizes the view of the different schools of thought and comment, conducts data retrieval and analysis of Chinese regional disparities existing research literature, and summarizes existing research results and the extent of regional disparities in China. Basic theoretical premise of this article is mainly studied and the role of theoretical premise of this article on China's regional economic development gap research and defects is clarified.
Chapter three studies the characteristics of the evolution of China's regional economic disparities. First it identifies measurable indicators of regional disparities, and on this basis, uses a variety of methods to measure the regional economic disparities in China since1978, multiple measure resulting from a unanimous conclusion. Regional differences in China in1990were significantly reduced and gradually expand into the1990s. In2003, the regional differences had a downward trend, but due to the short time, this trend toward unclear. Second, it uses Theil index and Gini coefficient respectively to analyses regional gap from a regional perspective view and industry view. It also studies the fluence that gap between and in regions, industry concentration index brings on overall regional disparities, especially the industrial concentration index changes structural effects and the concentration effect on regional disparities.
Chapter four studies regional economic disparities control objectives. This chapter seeks regional disparities control objectives from the point of view of regional economic disparities and economic growth relationship. First, it clarifies the relationship between regional disparities and economic from theories view. It uses the country's per capita GDP growth rate as an indicator of economic growth with the Gini coefficient to portray regional economic disparities. Because when taking unit root test, the country's per capita GDP growth rate takes on the steady trend, while the Gini coefficient is the I (1), it shows that there may be non-linear relationship exist or phased linear relationship between the regional economic disparities and economic growth instead of linear relationship. The root test units of the Gini coefficient secondary items shows that the Gini coefficient secondary is also I (1). Cointegration test indicates that the relationship between the country's per capita GDP growth rate, the Gini coefficient and Gini coefficient quadratic is cointegrated, that is to say the country's per capita GDP growth rate and regional Gini coefficient is a quadratic curve relationship, in other words, the country's per capita GDP growth rate and regional Gini coefficient is a quadratic curve relationship, and by quadratic curve model regression, to come to the result that since China's reform and opening up, economic gap cordon Gini coefficient values is0.31, and based on our future macroeconomic trends, the regional economic disparities moderate interval is set between0.273and0.286.
ChpterChapter five studies the control variable of economic gap between the regulation. The purpose of this chapter is to seek the factors that may affect regional economic disparities. Regional economic growth factors are factors that may affect regional economic disparities. This chapter views from the perspective of economic growth accounting to study influencing factors of regional economic disparities. There are many factors that affect regional economic gap, but in the final analysis, it the is the differences of the input elements and technical progress that cause, and other factors impact inputs factor and technological progress to cause impact of regional disparities. Therefore, the total factor productivity (TFP) and capital and labor should be of particular concern. This chapter uses the GLS (cross-section SUR) method to estimate the variable coefficients Panel Data Model to get the same production function of provinces. Based on above, it aimesaims to analysis the differences between total factor productivity and capital and labor in the area and show that since the reform and opening up, the capital growth is mainly driven accumulation of region's economic growth and less labor input of regional disparities accounts, the total factor productivity areas gap is an important factor leading to the expansion of the regional disparities. Most of the other influences affect total factor productivity and role in the economic growth rate of investment. Varies with different times, the impact that human capital, industrial structure, dependence on foreign trade, and the degree of market-oriented puts on total factor productivity is diffreintdifferent. ThsThis chapter views from the production function and the two aspects and eventually identifies seven factors that affect regional economic disparities as control variables:the capital stock (K) savings rate (INV), human capital (HUM), the degree of openness (IMEX), the size of government (GOV), the market mechanism (MARKET), industry structure (INDUSTY), etc. Although these variables affect the regional economy through growth, but does not necessarily affect the regional economic disparities. The six variables are possible regional disparities regulation variables, whether it is related to the regulation model remains to be the next chapter. Take these variables as the homeostatic control variables to test whether its regional economic convergence is significant.
Chapter six focuses on regulation mechanism of regional economic disparities. This chapter examines two purposes, one is testing whether there is convergence of China's regional economic disparities, conditional convergence is the theoretical basis of regulation of regional economic disparities, also is regulation mechanism of the regional economic disparities. The other is to test whether the impact of identified six control in Chapter Five to the convergence of regional economic disparities is significant. This chapter firstly analyzes the theoretical basis of economic growth convergence:the neo-classical growth theory and technological catch-up model. The neoclassical growth theory and technological catch-up model are to clarify the mechanism of steady state to change the economic and technological growth path preference parameters, so as to achieve the regulation of the region's economic growth rate, thereby affecting regional economic disparities through the regulation of steady-state and production.In the empirical side, the use of cross-section model and Panel Data Model Checking indicates that there is no absolute β convergence in regional economic disparities in China and there are conditional β convergence and club convergence. And factors determining economic steady stat such as human capital, market-oriented reform and opening up policy, the role of government, the change of industrial structure have a significant effect to regional economic disparities, which can be used as the regional economic gap between the regulation and control variables. On this basis, this paper shows that further technology convergence mechanisms and capital convergence mechanism is different in different periods of play from an empirical perspective.
Chapter seven aims at the control measures of the region economic gap. First, build a model of regional economic disparities regulation (influencing factors model of regional disparities), set two periods of1978-1991and1992-2009to study regional economic disparities control measures. Take the principal component regression method and variable substitution decomposition model to solve multicollinearity, study the regulation and control of the regional economic disparities and variable control issues such as the degree of difficulty according to the results of the regression of the model. The regulation and control of the human capital of regional economic disparities is strongest. The difficulty of physical capital regulation is minimum in aspects of the regulation of the degree of difficulty.
Chapter eight is a summary of this article including certain of the conclusions of this paper, policy advice and research prospects.
This paper systematically studies the status quo, trends and construction of China's regional disparities and explores the relationship between the regional economic disparities and economic growth, analyses influencing factors of regional disparity, researches into regional economic growth convergence mechanism and regulatory mechanism of the level of regional development gap in depth, and puts forward the following policy recommendations:
First, it reveals the phase characteristics of the regional economic disparities. China's regional economic gap takes on an inverted "S" shape change staring from1990and2003which are as the inflection point. In the year1978-1990, the regional economic gap declines, from1991to2002it rapidly rise in regional disparities and get downward after2003.
Second, it demonstrates the proper goal of regulation of regional economic disparities. This paper shows that there is cointegrated relationship between per capita GDP growth rate and the Gini coefficient and the Gini coefficient squared term cointegrated. The establishing of growth rate of per capita GDP and the Gini coefficient quadratic relationship draws that since China's reform and opening up regional economic gap cordon Gini coefficient value is0.31which determines the trend of China's macro economy and is to be the basis of moderate interval which is0.273to0.286.
Third, this paper draws that main factors of regional economic disparities are: physical capital, human capital, dependence on foreign trade and the market rate. Among them, the impact of physical capital is the most, the market rate of dependence on foreign trade of the regional economic disparities significantly and plays the increased role.
Fourth, through the regulatory mechanism of regional economic disparities in-depth study, this paper draws that the main conclusions are:human capital control efforts accounts most in main factors. When regional economic disparities (Gini coefficient) falls0.001, human capital, physical capital, the market rate of dependence on foreign trade, regional disparities (coefficient of variation) declines0.00196,0.00395,0.00442,0.04167separately. The difficulty of physical capital regulation is minimum in aspects of the regulation of the degree of difficulty. Regional economic disparities declines0.001, the areas of physical capital, human capital per capita, the market rate and the dependence on foreign trade gap (coefficient of variation) are reduced by0.63%,1.57%,1.18%,2.34%respectively.
There is still some shortcomings existing in the paper, for example, the theoretical study of the relationship between regional disparities and economic growth are inadequate, and the study of regional economic ties with regional disparities is not deep enough. This needs further exploration and research.
本文在整合增长理论、发展经济学理论、贸易理论的基础上,力图系统全面地分析地区经济差距的变化成因、趋势和形成机制,探讨地区经济差距转化的动力和途径,着力研究地区经济差距的调控机制,希望对区域发展决策者做出理性决策有所助益。
本文以地区经济差距为研究对象,以地区经济差距的调控机制为研究的核心问题。分析地区经济差距成因变动趋势对认识地区经济差距,理解地区差距形成的规律有一定的益处,但要解决现实问题需要寻求实际的方式和方法,这就要求对调控机制进行研究。
地区经济差距包含两个层次的含义,一是地区经济发展水平的差距,二是地区经济增长速度的差距。这两个差距是相互关联的,经济增长速度差距的减小只是缩小地区经济差距的必要条件,并不一定能带来地区经济差距的减小
理论模型是对现实世界的简化,便于对问题的理解和本质的把握,但实际的可操作性却十分有限。这种特性在地区经济差距的研究中表现得十分突出。由于受理论的限制,对地区经济差距的研究往往局限于一个简化的经济体系。现实中,影响经济的各要素之间联系广泛而深刻。为了达到调控地区经济差距的实际效果,以理论模型为基础,实证模型充分真实还原客观经济世界就是必须的。
基于上述认识,本文主要围绕以下五个中心问题展开研究。
一、本文研究对象——地区经济差距。研究地区经济差距演变特征、地区特征和产业特征等。
二、地区经济差距调控的目标。调控地区经济差距,就是使其在一个适度的区间内波动,而判定其是否适度,需要兼顾社会方方面面的因素。
三、地区经济差距调控的变量。调控变量即地区经济差距的影响因素。调控变量的选择有两个标准：一是影响地区经济增长,二是影响地区经济差距的收敛性。
四、地区经济差距调控的机理。这是本文调控地区差距的理论基础,调控机理依赖于地区差距的收敛性特别是β收敛是否成立。
五、地区经济差距调控的措施。就是量化调控变量的调控力度,以实现地区经济差距的调控目标。
本文围绕上述中心问题,分别加以分析和研究,研究框架如下：
第一章导论,说明了论文研究的目的和意义,要解决的中心问题,论文的章节结构以及本文的创新和不足。
第二章理论综述。本章系统梳理了国内外有关区域发展、地区经济差距的增长理论、发展经济学理论和贸易理论,对不同学派的观点进行了归纳和评论。对已有的研究中国地区差距的文献和资料进行检索和分析,归纳出已有研究中国地区差距的成果和研究程度。对本文的基本理论前提进行了重点研究,厘清了理论前提在本文对我国地区经济发展差距的实际研究工作的重要价值和存在的缺陷。
第三章研究我国地区经济差距演变的特征。首先确定了地区经济发展水平的衡量指标,在此基础之上,用多种方法测度1978年以来我国地区经济差距,多种测度方法得出较为一致的结论。1990年以前我国地区经济差距明显减小,进入20世纪90年代,地区经济差距逐步扩大,到2003年,地区经济差距又有下降的趋势,但由于时间较短,这个趋势的走向还并不明确。其次,分别运用泰尔指数和基尼系数对我国地区经济差距按地域和产业进行分解,分析了地区内差距、地区间差距以及产业集中指数对整体差距的影响,特别说明了产业集中指数变化的结构效应和集中效应对地区经济差距的影响。
第四章研究地区经济差距调控目标。本章从地区经济差距和经济增长的关系的角度出发,寻求地区经济差距的调控目标。首先从理论上阐明了地区经济差距和经济增长之间的关系。其次,以全国人均GDP增长率作为经济增长的指标,用基尼系数刻画地区经济差距进行实证研究。由于单位根检验时,全国人均GDP增长率为趋势平稳,而基尼系数为I(1),这说明地区经济差距和经济增长之间不存在确定的线性关系,可能是地区经济差距和经济增长存在非线性关系。通过对基尼系数二次项的单位根检验,基尼系数二次项也为I(1)。通过协整检验,说明全国人均GDP增长率、基尼系数以及基尼系数二次项之间存在协整关系,即全国人均GDP增长率和地区基尼系数是二次曲线的关系,并通过二次曲线模型的回归求解,得出我国改革开放以来地区经济差距警戒线为基尼系数值0.314。依据我国今后的宏观经济的走势,确定地区经济差距的适度区间为0.273-0.286。
第五章研究地区经济差距调控变量。本章研究目的是寻求可能影响地区经济差距的因素。地区经济增长的影响因素是可能的影响地区经济差距的因素。本章从经济增长核算的角度研究地区经济增长的影响因素。影响地区经济增长的因素众多,但归根到底,是投入要素和技术进步的差异引起的,其他因素通过影响投入要素和技术进步而影响地区经济增长。因此全要素生产率(TFP)和资本、劳动就应该特别引起关注。本章运用GLS法(cross-section SUR)对变系数Panel Data模型进行估计,得到生产函数规模报酬不变的各省的生产函数。在此基础上分析全要素生产率和资本、劳动在区域之间的差异,说明改革开放以来,地区经济增长主要是资本增长积累推动的,劳动投入对地区经济增长的影响较小,全要素生产率的地区差距是导致地区经济差距扩大的重要因素。其他影响因素大多是通过影响全要素生产率而作用于经济增长,通过实证分析人力资本、产业结构、外贸依存度和市场化程度等因素在不同时段上对全要素生产率的作用不同。本章从生产函数和TFP两个方面进行分析,最终确定了六个影响地区经济增长的变量：资本存量(K)、人力资本(HUM)、开放程度(IMEX)、政府规模(GOV)、市场机制(MARKET)、产业结构(INDUSTRY)。这些变量虽然影响地区经济经增长,但对并不一定会影响地区经济差距。这六个变量是可能的地区差距的调控变量,其是否进入调控模型,还有待下一章,将这些变量作为稳态控制变量,检验其对地区经济收敛性的影响是否显著。
第六章研究地区经济差距的调控机理。本章研究有两个目的,一是检验我国地区经济差距是否存在收敛性,条件收敛是地区经济差距调控的理论基础,也是地区经济差距的调控机理。二是检验第五章初步确定的六个控制变量对地区经济差距收敛性的影响的是否显著。本章首先分析经济增长收敛性的理论基础——新古典增长理论和技术追赶模型。新古典增长理论和技术追赶模型阐明了可以通过调控稳态和生产、偏好参数来改变经济稳态和技术增长路径,从而达到调控地区经济增长速度,进而影响地区经济差距的机理。在实证方面,运用截面模型和Panel Data模型检验说明中国地区经济差距不存在绝对β收敛,存在条件β收敛和“俱乐部”收敛。同时说明决定经济稳态的因素如人力资本、市场化改革、对外开放、政府的作用、产业结构对地区经济差距的变化有显著的影响,可以作为地区经济差距的调控变量。在此基础上,进一步从实证的角度说明了技术收敛机制和资本收敛机制在不同时期的发挥不同的作用。
第七章研究地区差经济距的调控措施。首先构建地区经济差距调控模型(地区差距的影响因素模型),分1978-1991年和1992-2009年两个时段研究地区经济差距的调控措施。采用变量替代分解的方式和主成分回归法解决模型存在的多重共线性问题。根据模型回归的结果,研究了地区经济差距的调控力度和变量调控的难易程度等问题。人力资本对地区经济差距的调控力度最大,而实物资本的调控难以程度最小。
第八章是本文的总结。包括本文的若干结论、政策建议和研究展望。
本文系统地研究了中国地区经济差距的现状、趋势、构成,在此基础之上探讨地区经济差距和经济增长之间的关系,分析地区经济差距的影响因素,对地区经济增长收敛机制和地区经济差距的调控机制进行深入研究,并提出了相应的政策建议,本文在以下几个方面做出了一些工作：
第一,揭示了地区经济差距的阶段性特征。我国地区经济差距以1990年和2003年为拐点,呈倒“S”型变化。1978-1990年,地区经济差距逐年下降,1991-2002年地区差距快速上升,2003年后,地区差距又呈下降趋势。
第二、论证了地区经济差距调控的适当目标。本文研究表明人均GDP增长率与基尼系数及基尼系数平方项存在协整关系,人均GDP增长率与基尼系数二次曲线关系成立,得出我国改革开放以来地区经济差距警戒线为基尼系数值0.314,依据我国今后的宏观经济的走势,确定地区经济差距的适度区间为0.273-0.286。
第三,分析检验了地区经济差距的主要影响因素是：实物资本、人力资本、外贸依存度和市场化率。其中,实物资本的影响程度最大,市场化率外贸依存度对地区经济差距的影响显著,作用日益加强。
第四,本文对地区经济差距调控机制进行了深入研究,主要结论是：调控力度方面,人力资本的调控力度最大。地区经济差距(基尼系数)下降0.001,人力资本、实物资本、市场化率、外贸依存度的地区差距(变异系数)分别需下降0.00196、0.00395、0.00442、0.04167。调控难易程度方面,实物资本调控难度最小。地区经济差距下降0.001,实物资本、人均人力资本、市场化率和外贸依存度的地区差距(变异系数)分别需减小0.63%、1.57%、1.18%、2.34%。
本文还存在一些不足之处,一是对地区经济差距与经济增长关系的理论研究尚有欠缺,二是研究地区经济联系对地区差距的影响不够深入。这有待日后进一步深入探索和研究。
Since the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening up, China's economy develops with a high speed. Between the year1978to2009, the average annual GDP growth was9%, GDP growed more than8%per capita average annual, and per capita income raised substantially, people's living standards improved gradually, creating a remarkable "China miracle". At the same time, China's regional economy stepped into the overall high growth period, and a rapid increase in total economic output and per capita amount in each region had been seen, playing an important role in China's sustained, rapid and healthy development. However, since China has a vast area with many ethnic groups, society, customs, cultural differences, historical traditions, and regional endowments, plus the impact of a number of factors such as geographic location and preferential policies, China's regional economic development is very uneven among regions and there is still large gap between regions which gradually becomes an important problem constraining the healthy and sustainable development of China's economic harmony. Therefore, how to correctly face the changes of regional disparities, reduce regional economic development gap and promote the harmony, sustainable development of our country and the region's economy becomes hot issues that China's economic circles, business community as well as the Government concern about.
This paper bases on integration of growth theory, the theory of international trade and development economics, tries to do a comprehensive analysis of the cause, change trends and the formation mechanism of regional disparities, the power and means of the transforming of regional disparities as well as regulatory mechanism of regional disparities, aiming at help regional development policy-makers to make a rational decision-making.
This paper takes regional economic disparities as the research object and the regulatory mechanism of the regional economic gap as the core issues. The trend analysis of regional disparities causes is conductive to the understanding of regional economic disparities and the law of the regional gap, but there is still need to find practical ways and means to solve the real problem, which requires studies about regulatory mechanism.
Regional economic gap contains two levels of meaning, the gap of the level of regional economic development, and the gap of the rate of economic growth in the region. These two gaps are interrelated and the change of the economic growth rate is just the necessary conditions of narrowing the economic gap between the region, while the change of the economic growth rate gap between the region does not necessarily promote regional economic development gap narrowing.
The theoretical model is a simplification of the real world to facilitate the understanding of some of the problems, but the actual operability is very limited. This limitation is very prominent in the study of regional economic disparities. Limited by theory, the study of the region's economic growth rate gap is generally limited to a closed economic environment, in the same time, in reality, the economic ties between the regions is extensive and profound, therefore the regulation of the economic growth rate at this time is quite different and even more realistic than the real way.
Based on the above understanding, this paper aims to address the following five central issues:
First, the object of this paper is regional economic disparities. The study aims at evolution characteristics of area economic disparities, regional characteristics and industry characteristics.
Second, the goal of regional economic disparities regulation. The regulation of regional economic disparities is to make a modest range fluctuations, to determine whether it is moderate need to take into account the social aspects of the factors.
Third, the variables of regional economic gap control. Regulating variable is the factor that affects the regional economic disparities. The selection of regulating variable has two criteria:the impact of regional economic growth and the impact of the convergence of regional economic disparities.
Fourth, the regulation mechanism of regional economic disparities. This is the theoretical basis of regulation of regional disparities in the paper, the regulation mechanism relies on the convergence of regional disparities especially whether β convergence is substantiated.
Fifth, the measures of regional economic gap between the regulation. That is quantified regulation variable control efforts to achieve the control objectives of the regional economic disparities.
This paper analyses and researches based on the central issue and research framework is as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction with description of the purpose and significance of the thesis, the central issue to be resolved, the section of the paper structure and innovation of this paper and deficiencies.
The second chapter is a theoretical overview. This chapter systematically combs the theory of economic growth of the region, development economics and trade theory in domestic and foreign areas, summarizes the view of the different schools of thought and comment, conducts data retrieval and analysis of Chinese regional disparities existing research literature, and summarizes existing research results and the extent of regional disparities in China. Basic theoretical premise of this article is mainly studied and the role of theoretical premise of this article on China's regional economic development gap research and defects is clarified.
Chapter three studies the characteristics of the evolution of China's regional economic disparities. First it identifies measurable indicators of regional disparities, and on this basis, uses a variety of methods to measure the regional economic disparities in China since1978, multiple measure resulting from a unanimous conclusion. Regional differences in China in1990were significantly reduced and gradually expand into the1990s. In2003, the regional differences had a downward trend, but due to the short time, this trend toward unclear. Second, it uses Theil index and Gini coefficient respectively to analyses regional gap from a regional perspective view and industry view. It also studies the fluence that gap between and in regions, industry concentration index brings on overall regional disparities, especially the industrial concentration index changes structural effects and the concentration effect on regional disparities.
Chapter four studies regional economic disparities control objectives. This chapter seeks regional disparities control objectives from the point of view of regional economic disparities and economic growth relationship. First, it clarifies the relationship between regional disparities and economic from theories view. It uses the country's per capita GDP growth rate as an indicator of economic growth with the Gini coefficient to portray regional economic disparities. Because when taking unit root test, the country's per capita GDP growth rate takes on the steady trend, while the Gini coefficient is the I (1), it shows that there may be non-linear relationship exist or phased linear relationship between the regional economic disparities and economic growth instead of linear relationship. The root test units of the Gini coefficient secondary items shows that the Gini coefficient secondary is also I (1). Cointegration test indicates that the relationship between the country's per capita GDP growth rate, the Gini coefficient and Gini coefficient quadratic is cointegrated, that is to say the country's per capita GDP growth rate and regional Gini coefficient is a quadratic curve relationship, in other words, the country's per capita GDP growth rate and regional Gini coefficient is a quadratic curve relationship, and by quadratic curve model regression, to come to the result that since China's reform and opening up, economic gap cordon Gini coefficient values is0.31, and based on our future macroeconomic trends, the regional economic disparities moderate interval is set between0.273and0.286.
ChpterChapter five studies the control variable of economic gap between the regulation. The purpose of this chapter is to seek the factors that may affect regional economic disparities. Regional economic growth factors are factors that may affect regional economic disparities. This chapter views from the perspective of economic growth accounting to study influencing factors of regional economic disparities. There are many factors that affect regional economic gap, but in the final analysis, it the is the differences of the input elements and technical progress that cause, and other factors impact inputs factor and technological progress to cause impact of regional disparities. Therefore, the total factor productivity (TFP) and capital and labor should be of particular concern. This chapter uses the GLS (cross-section SUR) method to estimate the variable coefficients Panel Data Model to get the same production function of provinces. Based on above, it aimesaims to analysis the differences between total factor productivity and capital and labor in the area and show that since the reform and opening up, the capital growth is mainly driven accumulation of region's economic growth and less labor input of regional disparities accounts, the total factor productivity areas gap is an important factor leading to the expansion of the regional disparities. Most of the other influences affect total factor productivity and role in the economic growth rate of investment. Varies with different times, the impact that human capital, industrial structure, dependence on foreign trade, and the degree of market-oriented puts on total factor productivity is diffreintdifferent. ThsThis chapter views from the production function and the two aspects and eventually identifies seven factors that affect regional economic disparities as control variables:the capital stock (K) savings rate (INV), human capital (HUM), the degree of openness (IMEX), the size of government (GOV), the market mechanism (MARKET), industry structure (INDUSTY), etc. Although these variables affect the regional economy through growth, but does not necessarily affect the regional economic disparities. The six variables are possible regional disparities regulation variables, whether it is related to the regulation model remains to be the next chapter. Take these variables as the homeostatic control variables to test whether its regional economic convergence is significant.
Chapter six focuses on regulation mechanism of regional economic disparities. This chapter examines two purposes, one is testing whether there is convergence of China's regional economic disparities, conditional convergence is the theoretical basis of regulation of regional economic disparities, also is regulation mechanism of the regional economic disparities. The other is to test whether the impact of identified six control in Chapter Five to the convergence of regional economic disparities is significant. This chapter firstly analyzes the theoretical basis of economic growth convergence:the neo-classical growth theory and technological catch-up model. The neoclassical growth theory and technological catch-up model are to clarify the mechanism of steady state to change the economic and technological growth path preference parameters, so as to achieve the regulation of the region's economic growth rate, thereby affecting regional economic disparities through the regulation of steady-state and production.In the empirical side, the use of cross-section model and Panel Data Model Checking indicates that there is no absolute β convergence in regional economic disparities in China and there are conditional β convergence and club convergence. And factors determining economic steady stat such as human capital, market-oriented reform and opening up policy, the role of government, the change of industrial structure have a significant effect to regional economic disparities, which can be used as the regional economic gap between the regulation and control variables. On this basis, this paper shows that further technology convergence mechanisms and capital convergence mechanism is different in different periods of play from an empirical perspective.
Chapter seven aims at the control measures of the region economic gap. First, build a model of regional economic disparities regulation (influencing factors model of regional disparities), set two periods of1978-1991and1992-2009to study regional economic disparities control measures. Take the principal component regression method and variable substitution decomposition model to solve multicollinearity, study the regulation and control of the regional economic disparities and variable control issues such as the degree of difficulty according to the results of the regression of the model. The regulation and control of the human capital of regional economic disparities is strongest. The difficulty of physical capital regulation is minimum in aspects of the regulation of the degree of difficulty.
Chapter eight is a summary of this article including certain of the conclusions of this paper, policy advice and research prospects.
This paper systematically studies the status quo, trends and construction of China's regional disparities and explores the relationship between the regional economic disparities and economic growth, analyses influencing factors of regional disparity, researches into regional economic growth convergence mechanism and regulatory mechanism of the level of regional development gap in depth, and puts forward the following policy recommendations:
First, it reveals the phase characteristics of the regional economic disparities. China's regional economic gap takes on an inverted "S" shape change staring from1990and2003which are as the inflection point. In the year1978-1990, the regional economic gap declines, from1991to2002it rapidly rise in regional disparities and get downward after2003.
Second, it demonstrates the proper goal of regulation of regional economic disparities. This paper shows that there is cointegrated relationship between per capita GDP growth rate and the Gini coefficient and the Gini coefficient squared term cointegrated. The establishing of growth rate of per capita GDP and the Gini coefficient quadratic relationship draws that since China's reform and opening up regional economic gap cordon Gini coefficient value is0.31which determines the trend of China's macro economy and is to be the basis of moderate interval which is0.273to0.286.
Third, this paper draws that main factors of regional economic disparities are: physical capital, human capital, dependence on foreign trade and the market rate. Among them, the impact of physical capital is the most, the market rate of dependence on foreign trade of the regional economic disparities significantly and plays the increased role.
Fourth, through the regulatory mechanism of regional economic disparities in-depth study, this paper draws that the main conclusions are:human capital control efforts accounts most in main factors. When regional economic disparities (Gini coefficient) falls0.001, human capital, physical capital, the market rate of dependence on foreign trade, regional disparities (coefficient of variation) declines0.00196,0.00395,0.00442,0.04167separately. The difficulty of physical capital regulation is minimum in aspects of the regulation of the degree of difficulty. Regional economic disparities declines0.001, the areas of physical capital, human capital per capita, the market rate and the dependence on foreign trade gap (coefficient of variation) are reduced by0.63%,1.57%,1.18%,2.34%respectively.
There is still some shortcomings existing in the paper, for example, the theoretical study of the relationship between regional disparities and economic growth are inadequate, and the study of regional economic ties with regional disparities is not deep enough. This needs further exploration and research.
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