民心工程中的客户价值评价与可中断负荷管理
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摘要
改革将国内的供电企业推向了市场,供电企业面临着更多的竞争。但是,国内的供电企业由于长期政企不分、垄断经营等原因,造成企业的市场意识不强,在电力市场改革进一步深化,逐步解除管制条件下,如何增强供电企业的市场意识,注重企业效益,增强供电企业的竞争力,显得尤为迫切。
本文首先对供电企业当前所处的环境进行分析,指出供电企业进行客户价值评价的必要性。介绍了现有客户价值评价方法,在此基础上,结合大同供电公司实际情况,以客户生命周期价值理论为指导,建立大同供电分公司客户价值评价体系,对大同供电公司客户评价排名,识别出对公司最具价值客户。然后引入可中断负荷管理,建立基于客户价值评价的具有激励性的可中断负荷合同模型,通过实证仿真分析,证明了该模型的有效性。
The reform has pushed domestic power supply enterprises to the market, make them face more competitions. Under the conditions of electricity markets’further reform and gradually deregulation, how to enhance the power supply enterprises’market Consciousness, place more emphasis on efficiency, strengthen the enterprises’competitiveness, has become a particularly urgent problem.
This paper firstly analyzes the power supply enterprises’environments, points out the necessity of customer value evaluation, and introduces the existing evaluation methodology. Based on the above basis and combined with the actual situation of Datong power supply enterprise, it establishes the Datong power supply branch company’s customer value evaluation system guiding by the custom life cycle value theory, then evaluates and ranks the Datong power supply enterprise’customs, identifies the most valued customers. After that, introduces into the interruptible load management, builds the incentive interruptible load contract model based on the custom value evaluation, and then prove the model’s validity through the demonstration simulation analysis.
本文首先对供电企业当前所处的环境进行分析,指出供电企业进行客户价值评价的必要性。介绍了现有客户价值评价方法,在此基础上,结合大同供电公司实际情况,以客户生命周期价值理论为指导,建立大同供电分公司客户价值评价体系,对大同供电公司客户评价排名,识别出对公司最具价值客户。然后引入可中断负荷管理,建立基于客户价值评价的具有激励性的可中断负荷合同模型,通过实证仿真分析,证明了该模型的有效性。
The reform has pushed domestic power supply enterprises to the market, make them face more competitions. Under the conditions of electricity markets’further reform and gradually deregulation, how to enhance the power supply enterprises’market Consciousness, place more emphasis on efficiency, strengthen the enterprises’competitiveness, has become a particularly urgent problem.
This paper firstly analyzes the power supply enterprises’environments, points out the necessity of customer value evaluation, and introduces the existing evaluation methodology. Based on the above basis and combined with the actual situation of Datong power supply enterprise, it establishes the Datong power supply branch company’s customer value evaluation system guiding by the custom life cycle value theory, then evaluates and ranks the Datong power supply enterprise’customs, identifies the most valued customers. After that, introduces into the interruptible load management, builds the incentive interruptible load contract model based on the custom value evaluation, and then prove the model’s validity through the demonstration simulation analysis.
引文
[1]刘英姿,姚兰,严赤卫. 基于价值链的客户价值研究[J]. 管理工程学报 2004 vol。18(4):99-101
[2]崔敬东. 基于生命周期的客户价值分析.[J]. 商业时代. 2005.15: 42-43.
[3]韩睿,田志龙. 客户价值的评估方法[J]. 价值工程. 2006.6:36-39.
[4]田靖涛.电力市场下引入可中断负荷的研究[J]. 吉林电力. 2006 Vol.34(1):6-7.
[5]王建学,王锡凡,张显,张振德. 电力市场和过渡时期电力系统可中断负荷管理[J].电力自动化设备.2004 Vol.24(5): 15-19.
[6]齐佳音. 企业客户价值研究。西安交通大学博士论文,2002
[7]白长虹. 西方的顾客价值研究及其实践启示. 南开管理评论. 2001(2):51-55.
[8]路晓伟、蒋馥、张欣欣,CRM 中客户识别的多纬框架[J],软科学,2004,1:40-43
[9]吴开军,客户分类方法探悉[J],工业技术经济,2003,6:95-99
[10] 弗 雷 德 里 克 . 赖 克 赫 德 . 忠 诚 度 和 市 场 营 销 的 复 兴 [M]. 中 信 出 版社.2002.359-382.
[11]罗杰.卡特怀特. 掌握顾客关系[M]. 广西师范大学出版社. 2001:98.
[12]菲利普.科特勒. 营销管理(梅汝和译)[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2001.
[13]胡兆光,纪洪.DSM 在北京地区负荷管理中的应用[J].能源政策研究.1998 (4):23-27.
[14]江辉,彭建春,丁克.需方用电管理的电价策略与效益评估[J].电力自动化设备.2001 21(3):29-32.
[15]陈明亮.客户保持与生命周期研究.西安交通大学博士论文.2001.
[16]齐佳音,韩新民,李怀主. 客户关系管理的管理学探讨[J]. 管理工程学报. 2002 Vol.16, No.3:31-33.
[17]白剑飞. 计及停电损失的用户响应和供电侧远期双边合同的制定.[D].西安:西安交通人学.2003.
[18]方勇,张少华,李渝曾.一种激励相容的电力市场可中断负荷管理合同模型[J].电力系统自动化. 2003 27(14):23-26.
[19]魏琳琳,黄民翔.细分用户的可中断合约新模式[J].管理自动化. 2004 (5):18-20.
[20]张少华,李渝曾,言茂松.考虑用户需求不确定性的电力期货合同模型. [J].控制与决策.1999, 14(增刊),536-540.
[21]王锡凡.关于电价制定方法的初步探讨[J].中国电力.1999 32 (6):1-3.
[22]曾鸣. 电力市场理论及应用[M]. 中国电力出版社 2000.
[23]国家电力公司. 2004 年中国电力市场分析与研究[M]. 中国电力出版社 2004.
[24]高世宪.我国电力供应紧张原因分析[J].中国电力.2004(1):7-10.
[25]国家电力公司战略研究与规划部编.市场经济下电力规划理论与实践探索[M].中国电力出版.2001
[26]王良友,赵水亮,杨素萍等.电能期货合同市场的输电拥堵定价及其输电网的开放[J].中国电机工程学报. 2004 24(8): 12-16.
[27]Frederick Reichheld. The Loyalty Effect: The Hidden Force Behind Growth,Profits and Lasting Value.[M]. Harvard Business School Press. 1996.
[28]Robert E. Wayland, Paul M. Cole. Customer Connections: New Strategies for Growth. Harvard Business School Press. 1997.9.
[29]Kelly D. Conway, Julie M. Fitzpatrick. The Customer Relationship Revolution — — A Methodology for Creating Golden Customers. Htta://www.Eloyaltyco.com.
[30]Achim Walter, Thomas Ritter, Hans Georg Gemunden. Value Creation in Buyer-Seller Relationships: Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results from a Supplier’s Perspective[J]. Industrial Marketing Management. 2001, 30,365-377.
[31]Hirst E. Reliability Benefits of Price-responsive Demand. IEEE Power Engineering Review. 2002. 22(11):16-21.
[32]Tollefson G, Gillinton R, Wacker G. Comprehensive Bibliography on Reliability Worth and Eledtrical Service Consumer Interruption Costl-1980-90.[J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1994. 9(4):1508-1514.
[33]CAO Shi-guang, YANG Yi-Han, YU Er-Keng. Power Outage Cost and Its Estimation [J]. Power System Technology. 1996. 20(11)72-74.
[34]Mok Y L, CHUNG T S. Pridiction of Domestic, Industrial and Commercial Interruption Costs by Relational Approach [A]. Proceedings of Fourth International Conference on Advances in Power System Control, Operation and Management [C]. Hong Kong: APSCOM, 1997. 209-215.
[35]Fahrioglu M, Alvarado F L. Designing Incentive Compatible Contracts for Effective Demand management [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems.2000 15(4):1225-1260.
[36]Gedra T W. Varaoua P P. Markets and Pricing for Interruptible Eledtric Power.IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1993 8(1):122-128.
[37]Hans Rask Jensen, Antecedents and consequences of consumer value assessments: implications for marketing strategy and future research, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 2001.8: 299-310
[38]Janny Choekstra, Eelko K.R.E.HuizinghH, The lifetime value concept in customer based on customer lifetime value, Information & Management,2004,1:1-14
[39]Kariukikk, Alllalrn. Factors affecting customer outage costs due to electric service interruptions[J].IEE Proceedings on Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 1996, 143(6):521-528.
[40]Braithwaitsd. Demand response is important-but let’s not oversell(or over-price) it[J]. The Electricity Journal, 2003, (6):52-63.
[41]Ruffle. Demand response: reality versus “ Resource”[J]. The Electricity Journal, 2002,(12):10-23.
[42]Boisvertrn, Capperspa, Neenanb. The benefits of customer participation in wholesale electricity markets[J]. The Electricity Journal, 2002, (4):41-51.
[43]Doormangl, Wangensteen I. Demand side provision of peaking capacity and reserves in deregulated power systems[A]. Proceedings of Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting[C]. New York:IEEE, 2000. 1766-1771
[44]Chencs, Leujt. Interruptible load control for Taiwan Power Company[J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1990, 5(2):460-465.
[45]Noam Nisan and Amir Ronen. Algorithmic mechanism design[J]. Games and Economic Behavior, 2001
[46]Mirrlees J. An exploration in the theiry of optimum income taxation[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1971, 38:175-208.
[47]Spence M.Job market signaling[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1973,87(3):355-374.
[48]Gjengedal T, Lund P E, Flolo R. Distribution System Planning Including Distribution Automation and Demand-side Management in Deregulated Market Environments Electric Power Engineering. 1999. PowerTech Budapest 99. International Conference on:29 Aug.-2 Sep.1999
[49]Strbac G, Kirschen D. Assessing the Competitiveness of Demand-side Bidding Power Systems.IEEE Transactions on Vol 14, Issue:1, Feb.1999.
[50]Choisb, Kimdk, Jeongsh, et al. Evaluation of the Customer Interruption Cost Taking into Consideration Macro Economic Approach in Korea [A]. Proceedings of International Conference on Power System Technology [C]. Xi’an China:PowerCon,2002. 2358-2362.
[51]Coles L R, Chapel S W, Iamucci J J. Valuation of Modular Generation, Torage, and Targeted Demand-side Management, Energy Conversion, IEEE Transactions on, volume:10, Issue:1,1995.
[52]EPRI(Electric power research institute). Designing an integrated menu of electric ervice options: Modeling customer demand for priority service using C-VALU-the Niagara Mohawk application[Z]. Technical Report TR-100523, Oct.1992.
[53]Krischen D K. Demand-side View of Electricity Markets. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 2003 18(2):520-527.
[54]Kotler.P. Marketing management, Analyse, Planning, Implementation, and Control, Ninth Edition. Prentice-Hall. Inc.,1997
[55]Doudna J H. Overview of California ISO Summer 2000 Demand Response Programs. Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting. Vol 1. Piscataway(NJ):IEEE. 2001. 228-233.
[56]Power Pool of Alberta. Voluntary Load Curtailment Program. 2001 [EB/OL] Http://www.powerpool.ab.ca. 2003-07-10.
[57]Gedra T W, Varaiya P P. Markets and Pricing for Interruptible Electric Power [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1993 8(1):122-128.
[58]Fahrioglu M, Alvarado F L. Using Utility Information to Calibrate Customer Demand Management Behavior Models. IEEE Trans on Power Systems, 2000 16(2):317-322.
[2]崔敬东. 基于生命周期的客户价值分析.[J]. 商业时代. 2005.15: 42-43.
[3]韩睿,田志龙. 客户价值的评估方法[J]. 价值工程. 2006.6:36-39.
[4]田靖涛.电力市场下引入可中断负荷的研究[J]. 吉林电力. 2006 Vol.34(1):6-7.
[5]王建学,王锡凡,张显,张振德. 电力市场和过渡时期电力系统可中断负荷管理[J].电力自动化设备.2004 Vol.24(5): 15-19.
[6]齐佳音. 企业客户价值研究。西安交通大学博士论文,2002
[7]白长虹. 西方的顾客价值研究及其实践启示. 南开管理评论. 2001(2):51-55.
[8]路晓伟、蒋馥、张欣欣,CRM 中客户识别的多纬框架[J],软科学,2004,1:40-43
[9]吴开军,客户分类方法探悉[J],工业技术经济,2003,6:95-99
[10] 弗 雷 德 里 克 . 赖 克 赫 德 . 忠 诚 度 和 市 场 营 销 的 复 兴 [M]. 中 信 出 版社.2002.359-382.
[11]罗杰.卡特怀特. 掌握顾客关系[M]. 广西师范大学出版社. 2001:98.
[12]菲利普.科特勒. 营销管理(梅汝和译)[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2001.
[13]胡兆光,纪洪.DSM 在北京地区负荷管理中的应用[J].能源政策研究.1998 (4):23-27.
[14]江辉,彭建春,丁克.需方用电管理的电价策略与效益评估[J].电力自动化设备.2001 21(3):29-32.
[15]陈明亮.客户保持与生命周期研究.西安交通大学博士论文.2001.
[16]齐佳音,韩新民,李怀主. 客户关系管理的管理学探讨[J]. 管理工程学报. 2002 Vol.16, No.3:31-33.
[17]白剑飞. 计及停电损失的用户响应和供电侧远期双边合同的制定.[D].西安:西安交通人学.2003.
[18]方勇,张少华,李渝曾.一种激励相容的电力市场可中断负荷管理合同模型[J].电力系统自动化. 2003 27(14):23-26.
[19]魏琳琳,黄民翔.细分用户的可中断合约新模式[J].管理自动化. 2004 (5):18-20.
[20]张少华,李渝曾,言茂松.考虑用户需求不确定性的电力期货合同模型. [J].控制与决策.1999, 14(增刊),536-540.
[21]王锡凡.关于电价制定方法的初步探讨[J].中国电力.1999 32 (6):1-3.
[22]曾鸣. 电力市场理论及应用[M]. 中国电力出版社 2000.
[23]国家电力公司. 2004 年中国电力市场分析与研究[M]. 中国电力出版社 2004.
[24]高世宪.我国电力供应紧张原因分析[J].中国电力.2004(1):7-10.
[25]国家电力公司战略研究与规划部编.市场经济下电力规划理论与实践探索[M].中国电力出版.2001
[26]王良友,赵水亮,杨素萍等.电能期货合同市场的输电拥堵定价及其输电网的开放[J].中国电机工程学报. 2004 24(8): 12-16.
[27]Frederick Reichheld. The Loyalty Effect: The Hidden Force Behind Growth,Profits and Lasting Value.[M]. Harvard Business School Press. 1996.
[28]Robert E. Wayland, Paul M. Cole. Customer Connections: New Strategies for Growth. Harvard Business School Press. 1997.9.
[29]Kelly D. Conway, Julie M. Fitzpatrick. The Customer Relationship Revolution — — A Methodology for Creating Golden Customers. Htta://www.Eloyaltyco.com.
[30]Achim Walter, Thomas Ritter, Hans Georg Gemunden. Value Creation in Buyer-Seller Relationships: Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results from a Supplier’s Perspective[J]. Industrial Marketing Management. 2001, 30,365-377.
[31]Hirst E. Reliability Benefits of Price-responsive Demand. IEEE Power Engineering Review. 2002. 22(11):16-21.
[32]Tollefson G, Gillinton R, Wacker G. Comprehensive Bibliography on Reliability Worth and Eledtrical Service Consumer Interruption Costl-1980-90.[J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1994. 9(4):1508-1514.
[33]CAO Shi-guang, YANG Yi-Han, YU Er-Keng. Power Outage Cost and Its Estimation [J]. Power System Technology. 1996. 20(11)72-74.
[34]Mok Y L, CHUNG T S. Pridiction of Domestic, Industrial and Commercial Interruption Costs by Relational Approach [A]. Proceedings of Fourth International Conference on Advances in Power System Control, Operation and Management [C]. Hong Kong: APSCOM, 1997. 209-215.
[35]Fahrioglu M, Alvarado F L. Designing Incentive Compatible Contracts for Effective Demand management [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems.2000 15(4):1225-1260.
[36]Gedra T W. Varaoua P P. Markets and Pricing for Interruptible Eledtric Power.IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1993 8(1):122-128.
[37]Hans Rask Jensen, Antecedents and consequences of consumer value assessments: implications for marketing strategy and future research, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 2001.8: 299-310
[38]Janny Choekstra, Eelko K.R.E.HuizinghH, The lifetime value concept in customer based on customer lifetime value, Information & Management,2004,1:1-14
[39]Kariukikk, Alllalrn. Factors affecting customer outage costs due to electric service interruptions[J].IEE Proceedings on Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 1996, 143(6):521-528.
[40]Braithwaitsd. Demand response is important-but let’s not oversell(or over-price) it[J]. The Electricity Journal, 2003, (6):52-63.
[41]Ruffle. Demand response: reality versus “ Resource”[J]. The Electricity Journal, 2002,(12):10-23.
[42]Boisvertrn, Capperspa, Neenanb. The benefits of customer participation in wholesale electricity markets[J]. The Electricity Journal, 2002, (4):41-51.
[43]Doormangl, Wangensteen I. Demand side provision of peaking capacity and reserves in deregulated power systems[A]. Proceedings of Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting[C]. New York:IEEE, 2000. 1766-1771
[44]Chencs, Leujt. Interruptible load control for Taiwan Power Company[J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, 1990, 5(2):460-465.
[45]Noam Nisan and Amir Ronen. Algorithmic mechanism design[J]. Games and Economic Behavior, 2001
[46]Mirrlees J. An exploration in the theiry of optimum income taxation[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1971, 38:175-208.
[47]Spence M.Job market signaling[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1973,87(3):355-374.
[48]Gjengedal T, Lund P E, Flolo R. Distribution System Planning Including Distribution Automation and Demand-side Management in Deregulated Market Environments Electric Power Engineering. 1999. PowerTech Budapest 99. International Conference on:29 Aug.-2 Sep.1999
[49]Strbac G, Kirschen D. Assessing the Competitiveness of Demand-side Bidding Power Systems.IEEE Transactions on Vol 14, Issue:1, Feb.1999.
[50]Choisb, Kimdk, Jeongsh, et al. Evaluation of the Customer Interruption Cost Taking into Consideration Macro Economic Approach in Korea [A]. Proceedings of International Conference on Power System Technology [C]. Xi’an China:PowerCon,2002. 2358-2362.
[51]Coles L R, Chapel S W, Iamucci J J. Valuation of Modular Generation, Torage, and Targeted Demand-side Management, Energy Conversion, IEEE Transactions on, volume:10, Issue:1,1995.
[52]EPRI(Electric power research institute). Designing an integrated menu of electric ervice options: Modeling customer demand for priority service using C-VALU-the Niagara Mohawk application[Z]. Technical Report TR-100523, Oct.1992.
[53]Krischen D K. Demand-side View of Electricity Markets. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 2003 18(2):520-527.
[54]Kotler.P. Marketing management, Analyse, Planning, Implementation, and Control, Ninth Edition. Prentice-Hall. Inc.,1997
[55]Doudna J H. Overview of California ISO Summer 2000 Demand Response Programs. Proceedings of IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting. Vol 1. Piscataway(NJ):IEEE. 2001. 228-233.
[56]Power Pool of Alberta. Voluntary Load Curtailment Program. 2001 [EB/OL] Http://www.powerpool.ab.ca. 2003-07-10.
[57]Gedra T W, Varaiya P P. Markets and Pricing for Interruptible Electric Power [J]. IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 1993 8(1):122-128.
[58]Fahrioglu M, Alvarado F L. Using Utility Information to Calibrate Customer Demand Management Behavior Models. IEEE Trans on Power Systems, 2000 16(2):317-322.