金融发展对中国全要素生产率增长的影响：作用机制与实证分析
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摘要
加快转变经济发展方式、深化金融体系改革已成为中国目前两大经济热点问题。一方面,全要素生产率变动及其增长的机制已成为理解中国经济内在增长动力、转变经济发展方式的一个关键问题;另一方面,金融业已发展成为中国现代服务业的重要支柱产业,在整个国民经济中起着举足轻重的作用。在此背景下,金融发展对中国全要素生产率增长的影响及其作用机制,不仅是一个涉及到中国宏观经济可持续发展的现实问题,还是一个崭新的重要理论命题。因此,深入考察金融发展对中国全要素生产率增长的影响及其作用机制具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。
国际学术界对金融发展增长效应的研究起步较早,而且形成了一套相对成熟的理论体系,然而,鉴于中国特有的现实国情,国外现有的研究成果并不能完全适用于分析中国的情况。既然普遍的观点认为提高全要素生产率增长是保证中国未来经济持续增长的关键因素,而金融行业的发展又关系到国计民生,那么金融发展对中国全要素生产率增长是否具有促进作用?如何对此做出使人信服的判断呢?如果金融发展对中国全要素生产率的增长存在明显影响,那么这种影响的内在作用机理应该如何识别呢?金融发展在国际贸易及FDI的国际技术溢出效应中起着怎样的作用呢?基于金融发展的角度,如何制定具体可行的政策来促进中国全要素生产率的可持续增长呢?在借鉴前沿相关研究成果的基础上,本文采用理论模型分析、实证研究与规范分析相结合的研究方法,系统和深入地解答这些重要的问题。全文主要研究结论如下:
理论研究表明:(1)发展和完善中国金融市场具有积极的生产率增长效应。发达的金融市场通过“干中学”生产率增长机制以及“自主研发”技术进步机制,促进中国在一个较高的稳态水平上实现全要素生产率的增长;(2)提高中国金融发展水平,是实现国际贸易促进生产率增长机制的一个重要因素。提高金融发展水平有助于金融部门与贸易开放形成良性互动机制,强化国际贸易在促进国外先进技术转移方面的积极作用,从而最终促进全要素生产率增长;(3)发达的金融体系可以提高国内对FDI技术溢出的吸收能力,国内金融体系和FDI共同协调发展有助于增强FDI技术外溢效果,进而实现全要素生产率的增长。
实证研究表明:(1)在中国,从优化资源配置的角度看,银行信贷相对于财政拨款而言更具有经济效率。银行贷款逐步代替财政拨款,成为投资资金的重要来源,提高了资源的使用效率,推动了全要素生产率的增长;(2)城乡居民储蓄是中国中小企业获得非正式融资的一个重要来源,从而金融发展的储蓄动员功能有助于具有更高生产率的非国有企业获得更多金融资源;(3)金融体系能否通过发挥资源配置、风险分散等金融功能来促进生产率的增长,不仅与金融规模的大小有关,更在于金融结构是否匹配于经济发展过程中的市场需求结构,金融结构的优化升级有助于中国全要素生产率的提高;(4)在促进国际贸易和对外直接投资的技术溢出过程中,金融发展发挥着非常重要的作用。金融发展使得国内能够更加充分获得FDI和对外贸易的技术溢出,进而放大中国对外开放对生产率增长的积极效应。
在全文研究基础上,基于理论模型分析结论和实证结果,结合中国经济运行的现实背景,围绕如何有效提高中国全要素生产率的可持续增长,本文从深化中国金融改革、加大人力资本投入、转变外贸增长方式以及强化FDI技术溢出效果这四个方面提出了一些具体和可行的政策建议。
Accelerating shift in economic development mode and Deepening the financial system reform have become two big economic hot problems in today’s China. On the one hand, The change of total factor productivity and the mechanisms through which total factor productivity growth takes place, become two key elements which are important to understand China’s internal growth force and the transformation of economic development mode. On the other hand, financial sector has become a pillar industry of China's modern service industries, and plays an important role in the national economy. In this context, the influences of financial development on China's total factor productivity growth and the mechanisms through which these influences take place are not only an issue in relation to China's sustainable macroeconomic development, but aslo is an new important theoretical proposition. Therefore, investigating deeply the influences of financial development on China's total factor productivity growth and the mechanisms through which these influences take place, has important theoretical and practical significance.
The international academic research on the effects of financial development on economic growth have started earlier,and have formed a relatively mature theoretical system. However, in view of China's unique realistic national conditions, foreign existing research results cannot be completely suitable for analysing the situation in China. Since scholars generally view that improving total factor productivity growth is a key factor which guarantees of future economic growth of China, whether financial development contributes to promote China's total factor productivity growth? If financial development has significant influences on China's total factor productivity growth, so how to identify the channels and mechanisms through which these influences take place? What roles does financial development play in international trade’s andFDI’s technology spillovers effect? From the perspective of financial development, how to formulate specific and feasible Policies for promoting China's total factor productivity sustainable growth. Basing on relevant frontier research results, this paper adopts research methods which are combined with theoretical model analysis, empirical research and normative analysis, answering these important issues systematically and depthly. Ours research’s main conclusions are as follows:
Theoretical research results show that: (1)Developing and perfecting China's financial markets has positive productivity growth effects. Underdeveloped financial markets can promote achieving China's total factor productivity growth in a higher steady-state level through the " Learning by doing" productivity growth mechanism as well as the "independent research and development" technology progress mechanism. (2)Improving China's financial development level is an important factor which achieves international trade’s productivity growth mechanism. Improving the financial development level is conducive to generating benign interaction mechanism between financial sector and trade openness, strengthening international trade’s positive role in promoting foreign advanced technology’s transfering. (3)Underdeveloped financial system can improve domestic country’s absorption ability of FDI’s technology spillovers. Coordinating development between the domestic financial system and FDI can strengthens FDI’s technology spillover effect, achieving total factor productivity growth.
The empirical research shows that: (1)In China, from the perspective of optimizing the allocation of resources, the bank credit has more economic efficiency relative to fiscal appropriation. Bank loan which gradually replaces the fiscal appropriation, becomes an important source of investment funds, improving resources use’s efficiency, pushing the total factor productivity growth. (2)Urban and rural residents savings is an important source in which Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises gain informal financing. Thus Financial institutions’s function: savings mobilization, helps non-state-owned enterprises with higher productivity to gain more financial resources. (3)Whether the financial system can promote productivity growth through resource allocation, risk diversification etc. financial function, depending on not only the size of the financial development’s scale, but also depending on whether financial structure matches economic development intrinsic demand. Financial structure’s optimization can help improving China’s total factor productivity. (4)Financial development is playing an important role in promoting international trade’s and FDI’s technology spillovers effect. Financial development makes China can absorb international trade’s and FDI’s technology spillovers more fully, enlarging opening to the outside world’s positive effects on productivity growth.
Based on the research conclusions in full text, combining the realistic backgrounds of China's economic operation, focusing on how to effectively improve China's total factor productivity growth, this paper puts forward some concrete and feasible policy recommendations from the aspects of deepening financial reform in China, increasing manpower capital investment, transformation of foreign trade growth mode and strengthening FDI’s technology spillover effect.
国际学术界对金融发展增长效应的研究起步较早,而且形成了一套相对成熟的理论体系,然而,鉴于中国特有的现实国情,国外现有的研究成果并不能完全适用于分析中国的情况。既然普遍的观点认为提高全要素生产率增长是保证中国未来经济持续增长的关键因素,而金融行业的发展又关系到国计民生,那么金融发展对中国全要素生产率增长是否具有促进作用?如何对此做出使人信服的判断呢?如果金融发展对中国全要素生产率的增长存在明显影响,那么这种影响的内在作用机理应该如何识别呢?金融发展在国际贸易及FDI的国际技术溢出效应中起着怎样的作用呢?基于金融发展的角度,如何制定具体可行的政策来促进中国全要素生产率的可持续增长呢?在借鉴前沿相关研究成果的基础上,本文采用理论模型分析、实证研究与规范分析相结合的研究方法,系统和深入地解答这些重要的问题。全文主要研究结论如下:
理论研究表明:(1)发展和完善中国金融市场具有积极的生产率增长效应。发达的金融市场通过“干中学”生产率增长机制以及“自主研发”技术进步机制,促进中国在一个较高的稳态水平上实现全要素生产率的增长;(2)提高中国金融发展水平,是实现国际贸易促进生产率增长机制的一个重要因素。提高金融发展水平有助于金融部门与贸易开放形成良性互动机制,强化国际贸易在促进国外先进技术转移方面的积极作用,从而最终促进全要素生产率增长;(3)发达的金融体系可以提高国内对FDI技术溢出的吸收能力,国内金融体系和FDI共同协调发展有助于增强FDI技术外溢效果,进而实现全要素生产率的增长。
实证研究表明:(1)在中国,从优化资源配置的角度看,银行信贷相对于财政拨款而言更具有经济效率。银行贷款逐步代替财政拨款,成为投资资金的重要来源,提高了资源的使用效率,推动了全要素生产率的增长;(2)城乡居民储蓄是中国中小企业获得非正式融资的一个重要来源,从而金融发展的储蓄动员功能有助于具有更高生产率的非国有企业获得更多金融资源;(3)金融体系能否通过发挥资源配置、风险分散等金融功能来促进生产率的增长,不仅与金融规模的大小有关,更在于金融结构是否匹配于经济发展过程中的市场需求结构,金融结构的优化升级有助于中国全要素生产率的提高;(4)在促进国际贸易和对外直接投资的技术溢出过程中,金融发展发挥着非常重要的作用。金融发展使得国内能够更加充分获得FDI和对外贸易的技术溢出,进而放大中国对外开放对生产率增长的积极效应。
在全文研究基础上,基于理论模型分析结论和实证结果,结合中国经济运行的现实背景,围绕如何有效提高中国全要素生产率的可持续增长,本文从深化中国金融改革、加大人力资本投入、转变外贸增长方式以及强化FDI技术溢出效果这四个方面提出了一些具体和可行的政策建议。
Accelerating shift in economic development mode and Deepening the financial system reform have become two big economic hot problems in today’s China. On the one hand, The change of total factor productivity and the mechanisms through which total factor productivity growth takes place, become two key elements which are important to understand China’s internal growth force and the transformation of economic development mode. On the other hand, financial sector has become a pillar industry of China's modern service industries, and plays an important role in the national economy. In this context, the influences of financial development on China's total factor productivity growth and the mechanisms through which these influences take place are not only an issue in relation to China's sustainable macroeconomic development, but aslo is an new important theoretical proposition. Therefore, investigating deeply the influences of financial development on China's total factor productivity growth and the mechanisms through which these influences take place, has important theoretical and practical significance.
The international academic research on the effects of financial development on economic growth have started earlier,and have formed a relatively mature theoretical system. However, in view of China's unique realistic national conditions, foreign existing research results cannot be completely suitable for analysing the situation in China. Since scholars generally view that improving total factor productivity growth is a key factor which guarantees of future economic growth of China, whether financial development contributes to promote China's total factor productivity growth? If financial development has significant influences on China's total factor productivity growth, so how to identify the channels and mechanisms through which these influences take place? What roles does financial development play in international trade’s andFDI’s technology spillovers effect? From the perspective of financial development, how to formulate specific and feasible Policies for promoting China's total factor productivity sustainable growth. Basing on relevant frontier research results, this paper adopts research methods which are combined with theoretical model analysis, empirical research and normative analysis, answering these important issues systematically and depthly. Ours research’s main conclusions are as follows:
Theoretical research results show that: (1)Developing and perfecting China's financial markets has positive productivity growth effects. Underdeveloped financial markets can promote achieving China's total factor productivity growth in a higher steady-state level through the " Learning by doing" productivity growth mechanism as well as the "independent research and development" technology progress mechanism. (2)Improving China's financial development level is an important factor which achieves international trade’s productivity growth mechanism. Improving the financial development level is conducive to generating benign interaction mechanism between financial sector and trade openness, strengthening international trade’s positive role in promoting foreign advanced technology’s transfering. (3)Underdeveloped financial system can improve domestic country’s absorption ability of FDI’s technology spillovers. Coordinating development between the domestic financial system and FDI can strengthens FDI’s technology spillover effect, achieving total factor productivity growth.
The empirical research shows that: (1)In China, from the perspective of optimizing the allocation of resources, the bank credit has more economic efficiency relative to fiscal appropriation. Bank loan which gradually replaces the fiscal appropriation, becomes an important source of investment funds, improving resources use’s efficiency, pushing the total factor productivity growth. (2)Urban and rural residents savings is an important source in which Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises gain informal financing. Thus Financial institutions’s function: savings mobilization, helps non-state-owned enterprises with higher productivity to gain more financial resources. (3)Whether the financial system can promote productivity growth through resource allocation, risk diversification etc. financial function, depending on not only the size of the financial development’s scale, but also depending on whether financial structure matches economic development intrinsic demand. Financial structure’s optimization can help improving China’s total factor productivity. (4)Financial development is playing an important role in promoting international trade’s and FDI’s technology spillovers effect. Financial development makes China can absorb international trade’s and FDI’s technology spillovers more fully, enlarging opening to the outside world’s positive effects on productivity growth.
Based on the research conclusions in full text, combining the realistic backgrounds of China's economic operation, focusing on how to effectively improve China's total factor productivity growth, this paper puts forward some concrete and feasible policy recommendations from the aspects of deepening financial reform in China, increasing manpower capital investment, transformation of foreign trade growth mode and strengthening FDI’s technology spillover effect.
引文
①樊纲在“2007上海国际创业投资和私募股权投资论坛”上演讲了其研究成果。
①内生增长理论历史上主要朝着两个方向发展:第一个方向主要考察物质或人力资本的积累如何作用于长期经济增长;第二大方向则考察创新和技术进步如何成为一国经济增长的主要动力,强调投资在创新活动上的作用。
②按照王诚(2004)的定义,典型化事实是可以刻画经济真实现象基本特征的一些重要事实。
①基于2005年末的《中国地下金融调查》统计,中国2003年地下信贷规模大约在7403亿元到8164亿元之间,全国20个被地区的非正式融资规模占正式途径融资规模的比率达到28.07%。
①本章附录中,基于内生增长模型,我们构建和推导一个简单的AK模型,阐释Benhabib和Spiegel(2000)、Suleiman和Aamer(2008)等学者采用这种研究方法的理由。
②Engle和Granger(1987)、Granger(1988)证明,若非平稳变量之间存在协整关系,基于一阶差分形式的VAR的Granger因果推断是不恰当的。这时,应考虑采用向量误差修正模型(VECM)进行因果关系分析(Johansen,1990)。
③在本章附录中,我们阐述了自回归模型包含这三个变量的理由。
①具体可以参见Greenwald, B., M. Kohn and J. Stiglitz. (1990)“Financial Market Imperfections and Productivity Growth.”Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 13(3): 321-345.
②为建模简洁起见,假设劳动投入是唯一的投入要素。
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①内生增长理论历史上主要朝着两个方向发展:第一个方向主要考察物质或人力资本的积累如何作用于长期经济增长;第二大方向则考察创新和技术进步如何成为一国经济增长的主要动力,强调投资在创新活动上的作用。
②按照王诚(2004)的定义,典型化事实是可以刻画经济真实现象基本特征的一些重要事实。
①基于2005年末的《中国地下金融调查》统计,中国2003年地下信贷规模大约在7403亿元到8164亿元之间,全国20个被地区的非正式融资规模占正式途径融资规模的比率达到28.07%。
①本章附录中,基于内生增长模型,我们构建和推导一个简单的AK模型,阐释Benhabib和Spiegel(2000)、Suleiman和Aamer(2008)等学者采用这种研究方法的理由。
②Engle和Granger(1987)、Granger(1988)证明,若非平稳变量之间存在协整关系,基于一阶差分形式的VAR的Granger因果推断是不恰当的。这时,应考虑采用向量误差修正模型(VECM)进行因果关系分析(Johansen,1990)。
③在本章附录中,我们阐述了自回归模型包含这三个变量的理由。
①具体可以参见Greenwald, B., M. Kohn and J. Stiglitz. (1990)“Financial Market Imperfections and Productivity Growth.”Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 13(3): 321-345.
②为建模简洁起见,假设劳动投入是唯一的投入要素。
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