基于复杂网络理论的城市轨道交通网络抗毁性研究
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摘要
目前,城市轨道交通因其具有运量大、安全可靠、速度快、准点舒适等优势成为解决城市交通问题最有效的办法。随着我国城市轨道交通日益网络化及在城市客流运输中所承担客流比例不断加大,近年日常发生的灾害事故和针对城市轨道交通的恐怖袭击都给人们带来巨大的生命和财产损失,同时造成了极坏的社会影响,因此人们对城市轨道交通网络的安全和可靠性提出了更高的要求。
     基于复杂网络理论对城市轨道交通网络抗毁性研究,对于定位城市轨道交通网络中关键的枢纽点及轨道区间,对于合理分配有限的防御资源来防备轨道交通网络遭到攻击和破坏,对于制定有效的城市轨道交通应急措施,对于城市轨道交通线网的合理改扩建,提高轨道交通网络可靠性、服务质量和吸引力等都具有极其重要的理论和现实意义。
     本文首先分析了城市轨道交通网络结构特点和功能性质,将城市轨道交通网络结构看作三个子网络的集合并认为其主要功能是满足城市客流运输任务,进而提出了城市轨道交通网络抗毁性的定义。然后在复杂网络常用抗毁性测度指标研究的基础上,结合各子网络特点选取三个抗毁性测度指标分别度量三个子网络抗毁性能变化情况,以城市轨道交通网络功能为目标,明确各子网络关系并最终确立了反映整个网络抗毁性测度和性能的指标,接着采用基于不同子网络层面的攻击策略对城市轨道交通网络模拟攻击。在网络结构和功能性质、攻击策略及指标研究基础上,以广州地铁网络为实例建立一个包含物理、逻辑和需求三个子网的有向城市轨道交通分层网络模型,最后利用计算机编程仿真模拟了在不同攻击策略下网络整体和局部各子网络抗毁性能的变化情况并对结果予以分析,同时本文在城市轨道交通网络模型基础上通过计算确定了广州地铁网络站点及区间的重要度,找出了网络中的薄弱环节,最后提出了提高网络抗毁性的几种措施。
The urban transit is the most effective way to solve the problem of urban transportation because of its large capacity,reliablity,comfortablity and so on.With the increasing networking and the proportion of urban transit in urban transportation system, the conventional disaster accident and terrorist attack aimed at urban transit have brought people huge losses of life and property in recent years,so it posed higher demand to the reliability and security of urban transit.
     It has theoretical and practical significance to research on invulnerability of urban transit network based on the theory of complex network.It can identify the hub point and key track interval of urban transit network,and can prevent attack and damage to urban transit network through the reasonable distribution of defense resources.The reasearch can also help the decision maker formulate effective emergency measures and has an important impact on expanding,planning and exploring the potential,and on improving the reliability,service,attra ctive of urban transit network.
     After analyzing the feature of structrue and function of urban transit network,this paper first defines the task of the network composed of three subnetworks is passenger transportation.Furthermore, the invulnerability of urban transit network is defined.This paper based on common measures of invulnerability of complex network choses respectively three measures of invulnerability for the three subnetworks,then uses attack strategies based on different layered subnetwork to attack the urban transit network with simulation.For the aim of function of the urban transit network, it establishes the measure and performance of invulnerability which reflect the whole invulnerability of the network from the relationship among the three subnetworks.Above all, taking the example of Guangzhou subway,a directed and layered network model of urban transit which contains three subnetworks called respectively physical network,logical network and demand network can be built,and the relationship of three subnetworks are analyzed. The conclusion reflecting the variation of the overall and part of invulnerability can be got and compared by programming.The importance of station and track considered as the weak are calculated and arranged, some improvments are provided for the optimization of invulnerability of network according to the results.
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