从产业间贸易到产业内贸易：演进机制分析与中国实证研究
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摘要
贸易模式的决定及其发展问题一直是国际贸易理论中最为基本的问题之一,这个问题的核心在于考察一国进出口产品的贸易格局、决定因素以及进一步发展的方向。20世纪70年代末开始出现的新贸易理论针对当时工业化国家中大量存在的同一产业内部产品既进口又出口的双向贸易现象,对贸易模式的决定问题做了不同于传统比较优势理论的解释。按照新贸易理论,在以规模经济为特征的现代化生产中,国际贸易的模式不再仅仅由建立于要素禀赋或技术差异基础之上的比较优势来决定,规模报酬递增的生产方式、不完全竞争的市场结构等都成为决定贸易模式的原因,而正是这些原因导致了产业内贸易模式的大量出现。新贸易理论的这些解释给后发国家冲破所谓“比较优势利益陷阱”,实现贸易产品结构的优化和产业竞争力的升级带来希望。然而值得指出的是,新贸易理论的早期研究主要基于工业化国家的经历,较少涉及到工业化进程中发展中国家的产业内贸易动态发展问题,更未有围绕对中国这样的发展中大国的深入研究。本文正是基于这个原因,尝试性地将发展中国家的产业间-产业内贸易演进纳入到经济发展和经济增长的动态分析框架中,从理论上揭示经济发展对贸易模式演进的决定作用以及经济增长过程中推动产业内贸易发展的一些具体机制,并以此为基础对中国贸易模式的发展状况及其演进机制进行实证检验,最后给出政策建议。
在理论上,本文从产业间-产业内贸易模式演进的宏观因素和微观机制两个方面展开分析。在对贸易模式演进的宏观因素分析中,本文论证了发展中国家的贸易模式与其经济发展阶段的相关性,以及贸易模式随着经济发展过程中主导产业升级、工业化发展战略转换等经济结构的变化而演进。在对贸易模式演进的微观机制分析中,本文改进新增长模型,首次提出经济增长过程中资本等要素的积累以及技术水平的提高是决定发展中国家产业内贸易长期增长的内生变量和微观基础,并且主要有三种机制推动了产业内贸易的演进,分别为:资本积累机制、技术扩散机制和技术创新机制。具体来说,资本积累机制可概括为:资本积累→市场规模扩大→产业内贸易增长。资本存量的增加一方面通过增加投资和提高劳动生产率能够增加本国生产的多样性产品种类数量,扩大本国产品的供给规模;另一方面通过增加与发达国家之间的要素禀赋结构相似性能够扩大国内需求市场规模,这两种市场规模的扩大都会带来产业内贸易的增长。技术扩散和技术创新作为技术进步的两个不同层面,其演进机制可统一概括为:技术进步(技术扩散、技术创新)→市场规模升级→产业内贸易增长。其中,当技术进步是非对称性国际技术扩散的结果时,一方面,随着发达国家生产的新产品种类数量增加,欠发达国家的模仿成本将不断下降,产品转移率增加;另一方面,随着欠发达国家从发达国家转移来的产品数量增加,其通过模仿所获得的经验积累也增加,生产率不断提高。模仿和学习的共同作用将导致本国在产品生产范围扩展的同时产品质量也得到升级,即带来市场规模的升级,产业内贸易增加。而当技术进步是本国企业为取得最大利润而进行技术创新的结果时,不仅本国产品生产范围扩展和产品质量升级,而且这些新产品具有一定的国际领先技术水平,能够在高新技术产品上形成竞争优势,从而增加与发达国家之间的产业内贸易。
在实证上,本文分别从中国贸易模式的演进趋势和演进机制两个方面对前面的理论进行检验。在演进趋势的检验中,本文首先对改革开放以来中国贸易模式演进的历史轨迹进行了纵向考察,然后对经济发展水平与贸易模式演进的关系进行了协整检验。其中,纵向考察结果显示,中国的贸易模式演进确实存在产业间贸易比重逐渐减少、产业内贸易比重逐渐增加的趋势。协整检验结果显示,中国的经济发展水平与贸易模式演进之间存在长期稳定的关系,并且经济发展水平的提高带来了产业内贸易比重的增加。在演进机制的检验中,本文以资本积累、技术扩散和技术创新等因素作为自变量,利用中国产业层面上的面板数据,检验了经济增长过程中资本等生产要素投入的变化以及技术进步对产业内贸易演进的影响。检验结果显示,资本积累机制对于中国产业内贸易的长期增长具有一定推动作用,这种推动作用更多地表现在增加投资、扩大生产规模上,而不是表现在对生产效率的提高作用上。技术扩散机制对于中国产业内贸易的长期增长具有很强的推动作用,跨国公司对中国的直接投资以及中国对包含先进技术产品的进口都带来了产业内贸易的增长。技术创新机制对于中国产业内贸易的长期增长也有一定推动作用,不过是这三个机制中发挥作用最弱的一种。
最后,基于前面的理论和实证分析,本文提出了进一步研究的方向以及政策建议,以期能够推动这些演进机制更好发挥作用,促进中国对外贸易的健康发展。
The determination and the development of trade pattern is the most fundamental issue in international trade theories. The crux of this issue lies in a study of import and export products, its determinants and its direction of further development. At the end of the 1970s, the new trade theory began to emerge to explain the lot of two-way trade in the same industries within industrialized countries, which was different from the traditional interpretation of the trade theory of comparative advantage. Under the new trade theory, trade pattern is not only determined by comparative advantage on the basis of factor endowments or technical differences, the economies of scale in production and the imperfect competitive market structure also can be the determining factors of trade pattern. While it is precisely these factors led to a proliferation of intra-industry trade. These new trade theory's explanations bring hope to late-development countries to break the so-called "comparative advantage traps". However it is worth noting that the early research of the new trade theory was almost based on the experience of industrialized countries, and less related to the dynamic development of intra-industry trade in the developing countries, no to mention the in-depth study of big developing countries like China. For the reason above, this dissertation tries to bring the evolution of inter-industry and intra-industry trade into a dynamic analysis framework, and reveals the decisive role of economic development on the evolution of trade pattern and the specific evolution mechanism in the economic growth process in the theory. And on this basis, the dissertation makes an empirical test for the evolution of China's trade pattern and its specific evolution mechanism. Finally, the dissertation gives some policy recommendations.
In theory, the dissertation analyzes macro factors and micro mechanisms of the trade pattern's evolution from inter-industry to intra-industry trade. The analysis of the macro economic factors indicates that the developing countries' trade pattern is associated with their economic development stages. The pattern of trade evolves with the structural changes of the leading industrials upgrading and the industrialization strategies conversion. In the analysis of the micro mechanisms, the dissertation modifies the new economic growth model and first proposes that capital accumulation and technology progress in the economic growth process is the endogenous variables and microeconomic foundation factors to decide the long-term growth of intra-industry trade in developing countries. And there are three main mechanisms for the promotion of intra-industry trade: capital accumulation, technology diffusion and technology innovation. Specifically, capital accumulation mechanism can be summarized as: capital accumulation→market expansion→intra-industry trade increase. The increase in capital stock can increase the type volume of diversity products and expand the supply market of products through increase investment and improve labor productivity on the one hand, and can expand the scale in the demand market through increased endowment structure similar to the developed countries on the other hand. As two different levels of technology progress, technology diffusion mechanism and innovation mechanism could be unified summarized as: technology progress→market upgrading→intra-industry trade increase. When the technology progress is the result of asymmetry international technology diffusion, imitation and learning together will lead to the extending of product scope and the upgrading of product quality. That is it can bring the upgrading of market and the increasing of intra-industry trade. When the technology progress is the result of domestic enterprises' technology innovation for maximum profits, these new products have a certain level of international leading technology. The competitive advantage of high-tech products can create, and the intra-industry trade with developed countries can increase.
Empirically, the dissertation tests two aspects of evolution trend and mechanism. In the test of evolution trend, the dissertation first makes a longitudinal study to China's trade patterns evolution history since reform and opening up; then makes a co-integration analysis to test the relationship between the economic development and the trade pattern. It shows that China's trade patterns do exist a growing trend of the proportion of intra-industry trade and a downward trend of the proportion of inter-industry trade. China's level of economic development has a long-term stable relationship with the evolution of intra-industry trade, and the level of economic development has brought the increase of intra-industry trade in the proportion. In the test of evolution mechanism, the dissertation holds the factors of capital accumulation, technology diffusion and technological innovation as independent variables, and uses the industry level panel data to test the impact of capital investment and technological progress in the economic growth process to the increase of intra-industry trade. The result shows that the Chinese capital accumulation mechanism has a certain role for the long-term growth of intra-industry trade. This promote role is more appeared on the aspect of investment increase and market expansion, rather than on production efficiency promotion. Technology diffusion mechanism has very strong role in promoting China's long-term intra-industry trade growth. FDI and the import of advanced technology products have brought the growth of intra-industry trade. China's technology innovation mechanism has a certain role for the long-term growth of intra-industry trade, but it's the weakest mechanisms of the three.
Based on the above analysis, the dissertation presents the corresponding policy and expects evolution mechanism of trade pattern to fully function, so as to promote China's foreign trade.
在理论上,本文从产业间-产业内贸易模式演进的宏观因素和微观机制两个方面展开分析。在对贸易模式演进的宏观因素分析中,本文论证了发展中国家的贸易模式与其经济发展阶段的相关性,以及贸易模式随着经济发展过程中主导产业升级、工业化发展战略转换等经济结构的变化而演进。在对贸易模式演进的微观机制分析中,本文改进新增长模型,首次提出经济增长过程中资本等要素的积累以及技术水平的提高是决定发展中国家产业内贸易长期增长的内生变量和微观基础,并且主要有三种机制推动了产业内贸易的演进,分别为:资本积累机制、技术扩散机制和技术创新机制。具体来说,资本积累机制可概括为:资本积累→市场规模扩大→产业内贸易增长。资本存量的增加一方面通过增加投资和提高劳动生产率能够增加本国生产的多样性产品种类数量,扩大本国产品的供给规模;另一方面通过增加与发达国家之间的要素禀赋结构相似性能够扩大国内需求市场规模,这两种市场规模的扩大都会带来产业内贸易的增长。技术扩散和技术创新作为技术进步的两个不同层面,其演进机制可统一概括为:技术进步(技术扩散、技术创新)→市场规模升级→产业内贸易增长。其中,当技术进步是非对称性国际技术扩散的结果时,一方面,随着发达国家生产的新产品种类数量增加,欠发达国家的模仿成本将不断下降,产品转移率增加;另一方面,随着欠发达国家从发达国家转移来的产品数量增加,其通过模仿所获得的经验积累也增加,生产率不断提高。模仿和学习的共同作用将导致本国在产品生产范围扩展的同时产品质量也得到升级,即带来市场规模的升级,产业内贸易增加。而当技术进步是本国企业为取得最大利润而进行技术创新的结果时,不仅本国产品生产范围扩展和产品质量升级,而且这些新产品具有一定的国际领先技术水平,能够在高新技术产品上形成竞争优势,从而增加与发达国家之间的产业内贸易。
在实证上,本文分别从中国贸易模式的演进趋势和演进机制两个方面对前面的理论进行检验。在演进趋势的检验中,本文首先对改革开放以来中国贸易模式演进的历史轨迹进行了纵向考察,然后对经济发展水平与贸易模式演进的关系进行了协整检验。其中,纵向考察结果显示,中国的贸易模式演进确实存在产业间贸易比重逐渐减少、产业内贸易比重逐渐增加的趋势。协整检验结果显示,中国的经济发展水平与贸易模式演进之间存在长期稳定的关系,并且经济发展水平的提高带来了产业内贸易比重的增加。在演进机制的检验中,本文以资本积累、技术扩散和技术创新等因素作为自变量,利用中国产业层面上的面板数据,检验了经济增长过程中资本等生产要素投入的变化以及技术进步对产业内贸易演进的影响。检验结果显示,资本积累机制对于中国产业内贸易的长期增长具有一定推动作用,这种推动作用更多地表现在增加投资、扩大生产规模上,而不是表现在对生产效率的提高作用上。技术扩散机制对于中国产业内贸易的长期增长具有很强的推动作用,跨国公司对中国的直接投资以及中国对包含先进技术产品的进口都带来了产业内贸易的增长。技术创新机制对于中国产业内贸易的长期增长也有一定推动作用,不过是这三个机制中发挥作用最弱的一种。
最后,基于前面的理论和实证分析,本文提出了进一步研究的方向以及政策建议,以期能够推动这些演进机制更好发挥作用,促进中国对外贸易的健康发展。
The determination and the development of trade pattern is the most fundamental issue in international trade theories. The crux of this issue lies in a study of import and export products, its determinants and its direction of further development. At the end of the 1970s, the new trade theory began to emerge to explain the lot of two-way trade in the same industries within industrialized countries, which was different from the traditional interpretation of the trade theory of comparative advantage. Under the new trade theory, trade pattern is not only determined by comparative advantage on the basis of factor endowments or technical differences, the economies of scale in production and the imperfect competitive market structure also can be the determining factors of trade pattern. While it is precisely these factors led to a proliferation of intra-industry trade. These new trade theory's explanations bring hope to late-development countries to break the so-called "comparative advantage traps". However it is worth noting that the early research of the new trade theory was almost based on the experience of industrialized countries, and less related to the dynamic development of intra-industry trade in the developing countries, no to mention the in-depth study of big developing countries like China. For the reason above, this dissertation tries to bring the evolution of inter-industry and intra-industry trade into a dynamic analysis framework, and reveals the decisive role of economic development on the evolution of trade pattern and the specific evolution mechanism in the economic growth process in the theory. And on this basis, the dissertation makes an empirical test for the evolution of China's trade pattern and its specific evolution mechanism. Finally, the dissertation gives some policy recommendations.
In theory, the dissertation analyzes macro factors and micro mechanisms of the trade pattern's evolution from inter-industry to intra-industry trade. The analysis of the macro economic factors indicates that the developing countries' trade pattern is associated with their economic development stages. The pattern of trade evolves with the structural changes of the leading industrials upgrading and the industrialization strategies conversion. In the analysis of the micro mechanisms, the dissertation modifies the new economic growth model and first proposes that capital accumulation and technology progress in the economic growth process is the endogenous variables and microeconomic foundation factors to decide the long-term growth of intra-industry trade in developing countries. And there are three main mechanisms for the promotion of intra-industry trade: capital accumulation, technology diffusion and technology innovation. Specifically, capital accumulation mechanism can be summarized as: capital accumulation→market expansion→intra-industry trade increase. The increase in capital stock can increase the type volume of diversity products and expand the supply market of products through increase investment and improve labor productivity on the one hand, and can expand the scale in the demand market through increased endowment structure similar to the developed countries on the other hand. As two different levels of technology progress, technology diffusion mechanism and innovation mechanism could be unified summarized as: technology progress→market upgrading→intra-industry trade increase. When the technology progress is the result of asymmetry international technology diffusion, imitation and learning together will lead to the extending of product scope and the upgrading of product quality. That is it can bring the upgrading of market and the increasing of intra-industry trade. When the technology progress is the result of domestic enterprises' technology innovation for maximum profits, these new products have a certain level of international leading technology. The competitive advantage of high-tech products can create, and the intra-industry trade with developed countries can increase.
Empirically, the dissertation tests two aspects of evolution trend and mechanism. In the test of evolution trend, the dissertation first makes a longitudinal study to China's trade patterns evolution history since reform and opening up; then makes a co-integration analysis to test the relationship between the economic development and the trade pattern. It shows that China's trade patterns do exist a growing trend of the proportion of intra-industry trade and a downward trend of the proportion of inter-industry trade. China's level of economic development has a long-term stable relationship with the evolution of intra-industry trade, and the level of economic development has brought the increase of intra-industry trade in the proportion. In the test of evolution mechanism, the dissertation holds the factors of capital accumulation, technology diffusion and technological innovation as independent variables, and uses the industry level panel data to test the impact of capital investment and technological progress in the economic growth process to the increase of intra-industry trade. The result shows that the Chinese capital accumulation mechanism has a certain role for the long-term growth of intra-industry trade. This promote role is more appeared on the aspect of investment increase and market expansion, rather than on production efficiency promotion. Technology diffusion mechanism has very strong role in promoting China's long-term intra-industry trade growth. FDI and the import of advanced technology products have brought the growth of intra-industry trade. China's technology innovation mechanism has a certain role for the long-term growth of intra-industry trade, but it's the weakest mechanisms of the three.
Based on the above analysis, the dissertation presents the corresponding policy and expects evolution mechanism of trade pattern to fully function, so as to promote China's foreign trade.
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