创新、人力资本与内生经济增长研究
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摘要
内生经济增长理论揭示了创新和人力资本是经济增长的源泉,创新和人力资本两者的相互融合促进了经济的长期增长。近十多年来,虽然有不少学者对创新和人力资本二者的融合进行了研究,但这些学者没有系统地研究人力资本在发展中国家的创新中、在吸收和技术扩散中的赶超作用,也没有系统地分析技术创新本身与人力资本积累的因果关系。
本文针对已有文献对内生经济增长理论研究领域中存在的种种不足之处,在借鉴已有数理模型的基础上,研究二者如何有效的结合才是支持经济增长的基本力量,并分析了发展中国家应如何加大对这两者的投资以达到对发达国家经济的赶超。在已确立的理论框架下,本文利用中国的相关数据进行了实证分析。通过理论研究和实证分析,本文得到的基本结论是:
第一,创新和人力资本是推动中国经济增长的主要源泉。研究发现二者对经济增长的贡献显著为正,且人力资本的作用较大。人均人力资本对人均产出的弹性系数在没有归一化的情况下为0.5327。R&D资本存量对经济增长的贡献为正,但就系数本身而言还是比较小,在没有归一化下的弹性系数为0.03,若是进行归一化,其结果会更小。与前人研究不同的是,本文将R&D资本存量这一生产要素加入到生产函数中来反映创新的贡献。
第二,创新和人力资本积累互为因果关系。创新需要人力资本的积累,人力资本存量的大小促进创新速度的加快.知识积累和创新最容易引起人力资本积累,因为创新提高了人力资本的边际生产率并使人力资本的投资更加有利可图。创新和人力资本相互作用,促进了经济的持续增长。
第三,实证研究发现,经济的持续增长促进了创新和人力资本的积累。这印证了早期的内生经济增长模型关于经济增长是资本投资外溢效应结果的理论。人力资本积累和创新带来了技术的进步,从而进一步促进经济增长,形成一个良性的循环机制,而这一点以往的研究并没有考虑到。
Endogenous growth theory has revealed that both innovation and human capital are the sources of economic growth, and the integration of innovation and human capital cause the long-term endogenous growth. In the past ten years, although there has been large quantities of documents on innovation and human capital integration, there exists no systematic studies about the catching-up effect of human capital during the process of innovation, technology diffusion and absorption in developing countries, no systematic analysis of the causal relationship between technological innovation and human capital accumulation.
Having known various deficiencies of those theoretics, basing on sophiscated mathematical model, this paper studies what kind of effective combination is the basic force of economic growth, and how developing countries can increase both kinds of investment for the purpose of catching up with the developed countries. Under those established theoretical frame, this paper procedes the empirical ananlysis, and gets the basic conclusions as below:
First, innovation and human capital are the main sources of economic growth in China. Our research finds that both of them contributes to economic growth positively, while human capital dominates innovation. The elasticity of human capital without normalized to 1 is 0.5327. And the contribution of R & D capital stock to the growth of the economy is positive, but its coefficient is still relatively small, without normalized to 1 is 0.03, if normalized to 1, it will be even smaller. Unlike the previous studies, this paper puts R & D capital stock as a factor into the production function to reveal the contribution of innovation.
Second, innovation and human capital accumulation interact each other. Innovation requires the accumulation of human capital, and the size of human capital stock accelerates innovation. The accumulation of knowledge and innovation can easily lead to the accumulation of human capital, because innovation increases the marginal productivity of human capital and human capital investment in a more profitable way. The interaction of innovation and human capital promotes economic growth.
Third, sustained economic growth promotes innovation and human capital accumulation. This confirms that early endogenous growth model belongs to capital investment spillover effect theory. Human capital accumulation and innovation have brought technology progress, thus further promotes economic growth, and creates a virtuous cycle mechanism, however, the previous empirical study haven't taken these into account.
本文针对已有文献对内生经济增长理论研究领域中存在的种种不足之处,在借鉴已有数理模型的基础上,研究二者如何有效的结合才是支持经济增长的基本力量,并分析了发展中国家应如何加大对这两者的投资以达到对发达国家经济的赶超。在已确立的理论框架下,本文利用中国的相关数据进行了实证分析。通过理论研究和实证分析,本文得到的基本结论是:
第一,创新和人力资本是推动中国经济增长的主要源泉。研究发现二者对经济增长的贡献显著为正,且人力资本的作用较大。人均人力资本对人均产出的弹性系数在没有归一化的情况下为0.5327。R&D资本存量对经济增长的贡献为正,但就系数本身而言还是比较小,在没有归一化下的弹性系数为0.03,若是进行归一化,其结果会更小。与前人研究不同的是,本文将R&D资本存量这一生产要素加入到生产函数中来反映创新的贡献。
第二,创新和人力资本积累互为因果关系。创新需要人力资本的积累,人力资本存量的大小促进创新速度的加快.知识积累和创新最容易引起人力资本积累,因为创新提高了人力资本的边际生产率并使人力资本的投资更加有利可图。创新和人力资本相互作用,促进了经济的持续增长。
第三,实证研究发现,经济的持续增长促进了创新和人力资本的积累。这印证了早期的内生经济增长模型关于经济增长是资本投资外溢效应结果的理论。人力资本积累和创新带来了技术的进步,从而进一步促进经济增长,形成一个良性的循环机制,而这一点以往的研究并没有考虑到。
Endogenous growth theory has revealed that both innovation and human capital are the sources of economic growth, and the integration of innovation and human capital cause the long-term endogenous growth. In the past ten years, although there has been large quantities of documents on innovation and human capital integration, there exists no systematic studies about the catching-up effect of human capital during the process of innovation, technology diffusion and absorption in developing countries, no systematic analysis of the causal relationship between technological innovation and human capital accumulation.
Having known various deficiencies of those theoretics, basing on sophiscated mathematical model, this paper studies what kind of effective combination is the basic force of economic growth, and how developing countries can increase both kinds of investment for the purpose of catching up with the developed countries. Under those established theoretical frame, this paper procedes the empirical ananlysis, and gets the basic conclusions as below:
First, innovation and human capital are the main sources of economic growth in China. Our research finds that both of them contributes to economic growth positively, while human capital dominates innovation. The elasticity of human capital without normalized to 1 is 0.5327. And the contribution of R & D capital stock to the growth of the economy is positive, but its coefficient is still relatively small, without normalized to 1 is 0.03, if normalized to 1, it will be even smaller. Unlike the previous studies, this paper puts R & D capital stock as a factor into the production function to reveal the contribution of innovation.
Second, innovation and human capital accumulation interact each other. Innovation requires the accumulation of human capital, and the size of human capital stock accelerates innovation. The accumulation of knowledge and innovation can easily lead to the accumulation of human capital, because innovation increases the marginal productivity of human capital and human capital investment in a more profitable way. The interaction of innovation and human capital promotes economic growth.
Third, sustained economic growth promotes innovation and human capital accumulation. This confirms that early endogenous growth model belongs to capital investment spillover effect theory. Human capital accumulation and innovation have brought technology progress, thus further promotes economic growth, and creates a virtuous cycle mechanism, however, the previous empirical study haven't taken these into account.
引文
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[1]西蒙·库兹涅茨(1966)将1750年确定为“现代经济增长”的转折点,而Maddison认为应该是1820年,这个观点得到Rostow(1960)和Gerehenkron(1962)的证明,其增长普遍比1500-1820年“早期资本主义时期快的多。安格斯·麦迪森.世界经济二百年回顾[M]北京:改革出版社,1997.
[2]F.M.谢勒.技术创新-经济增长的原动力[M].北京:新华出版社,p5-6.
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[3]本文在后续分析中将交替使用新经济增长理论和内生经济增长理论,对二者不加区分。
[1]Hall,Robert E.and Charles Jones,(1999),"Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Product per Work than Others?" Quarterly Journal of Economics,114,pp.83-116.
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[1]熊彼特(1934)将创新划分为五种类型:1.新产品或新服务的推出,或者现有产品或服务在质量上的提高。2.新的生产方法的推出;3.新市场的发展4.新的供给来源的开发5.经营方式的重组(本文的创新就是这几种方法的统称)。
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[1]转引自 菲利普.莫利纽克斯、尼达尔.沙姆洛克著,金融创新[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2003.
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[1]内生增长理论的还有一类文献认为经济增长是干中学和知识溢出效应导致的,这类模型主要有Romer(1987)以及早期的Arrow(192)。
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[2]根据垄断定价的原理见高鸿业.西方经济学:微观部分[M],北京;中国经济出版社,1998,p245。
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[1]张军.资本形成、投资效率与中国的经济增长[M].北京:清华大学出版社2005。
[2]Gregory Chow and Lin,An-loh(2002),"Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China:A Comparative Analysis",Journal of Comparative Economics,vol.30,pages 507-530.
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[1]西蒙·库兹涅茨(1966)将1750年确定为“现代经济增长”的转折点,而Maddison认为应该是1820年,这个观点得到Rostow(1960)和Gerehenkron(1962)的证明,其增长普遍比1500-1820年“早期资本主义时期快的多。安格斯·麦迪森.世界经济二百年回顾[M]北京:改革出版社,1997.
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[3]本文在后续分析中将交替使用新经济增长理论和内生经济增长理论,对二者不加区分。
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[3]F.M.谢勒,技术创新-经济增长的原动力[M].北京:新华出版社。
[1]熊彼特(1934)将创新划分为五种类型:1.新产品或新服务的推出,或者现有产品或服务在质量上的提高。2.新的生产方法的推出;3.新市场的发展4.新的供给来源的开发5.经营方式的重组(本文的创新就是这几种方法的统称)。
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[1]转引自 菲利普.莫利纽克斯、尼达尔.沙姆洛克著,金融创新[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2003.
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[1]内生增长理论的还有一类文献认为经济增长是干中学和知识溢出效应导致的,这类模型主要有Romer(1987)以及早期的Arrow(192)。
[1]Romer,Paul M.(1987),"Growth Based on Increasing Return Due to Specialization," American Economic Review,77,56-62.
[1]侯风云.中国人力资本投资与城乡就业相关性研究[M].上海:上海三联书店,2007。
[1]戴维.罗默.高级宏观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999,p59,但没讲具体由来。Feenstra,Robert(2004)P368-369表明具体的计算方法。
[2]根据垄断定价的原理见高鸿业.西方经济学:微观部分[M],北京;中国经济出版社,1998,p245。
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[1]代谦.开放经济条件下发展中国家的经济增长:一个基于人力资本的视角[D].武汉大学博士学位论文,2005。
[1]亚蒂什 N.巴格瓦蒂,阿温德.潘纳加里亚,T.N.施瑞尼瓦桑著高级国际贸易学[M]上海:上海财经大学出版社,2004.以及龚关.国际贸易理论[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2000.等。
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[1]张军.资本形成、投资效率与中国的经济增长[M].北京:清华大学出版社2005。
[2]Gregory Chow and Lin,An-loh(2002),"Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China:A Comparative Analysis",Journal of Comparative Economics,vol.30,pages 507-530.
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[1]黄勇峰、任若恩和刘晓生,“中国制造业资本存量永续盘存法估计”,《经济学(季刊)》,2002年第2期,第377-396页。
[2]Gregory Chow and Lin,An-loh(2002) Accounting for Economic Growth in Taiwan and Mainland China:A Comparative Analysis,Journal of Comparative Economics,vol.30,pages 507-530.
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[1]Steven N.Durlauf,Paul A.Johnson and Jonathan R.W.Temple,Growth Econometrics,Handbook of economic growth,edited by Philippe Aghion and Steven N.Durlauf,Amsterdam:Elsevier,2005.
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