中国入世后的中美经贸关系研究
|
摘要
2001年11月11日，中国正式加入世界贸易组织(WTO)，掀开了中国融入全球经济一体化的新篇章。经贸关系一直是中美双边关系的主体，它如何演变发展对中美双边关系有着重大影响。长期以来，由于两国在政治制度、意识形态、市场机制、战略利益等多方面存在极大分歧，常常成为干扰中美经贸关系顺利发展的障碍。中国入世后中美经贸关系会如何发展?是中美双方都十分关注的问题。在这个时候，研究中美贸易关系更具有现实意义。本论文正是基于这样的考虑。
本论文针对中美经贸关系中的主要争端展开论述，其中包括：1、中美贸易收支不平衡问题 2、农产品贸易问题 3、纺织品贸易问题 4、服务贸易问题 5、知识产权问题。并从中美两国各自的角度，阐述了双方在这五个方面的利弊得失，提出了解决争端的策略和途径。文章最后就中美经贸关系发展的前景做了定性和定量的预测，进一步证实了中国入世后中美经贸关系的发展趋势。
本论文在研究中美争端时，先从现状着手，通过不同的方法来揭示两国的优势、劣势找出两国之间的差异，指出问题的根源所在，然后针对这些问题，提出中美两国各自的解决方案。对于中美农产品贸易，从两国主要农产品价格、生产成本着手；纺织工业，主要从棉纺织行业中棉纺织机的无梭织机比例比较、化纤行业产品平均生产规模比较展开讨论；服务贸易，则采用经济开放度指标来说明变化趋势，其中分析电信业的现状，引入了比较优势系数(RCA)。解决争端方案部分，本文站在中方、美方的角度提出了各自的见解。此外，前景展望部分本文还结合运用灰色系统预测模型GM(1，1)对入世后中美贸易额、农产品贸易额、纺织品服装贸易额进行预测。预测得到的结果与定性分析的结论一致。
分析展望中国加入WTO之后的中美经贸关系，无论对中美两国政府的决策者，还是对中国的其它主要贸易伙伴，都具有现实意义。本论文旨在通过分析中国入世后中美经贸之间的主要争端，给出解决争端的策略和途径，以促进中美关系稳定健康发展，使彼此的优势和潜力得到充分的发挥。
本论文结构如下：第一章绪论；第二章总述中美经贸关系的现状及争端；第三章透视中美经贸争端；第四章解决中美贸易争端的策略与途径；第五章前景展望；第六章结论和政策建议。
November 11.2001, China formally entered the World Trade Organization (WTO), which opens a new page of China's merging into the global economy. Economic and trade relationship has always been the main body of Sino-US bilateral relationship. For long time, there are many disputes between China and US in many areas, such as politic system, ideology, market mechanism, strategic benefits etc, which have been the obstacles of the smooth development of Sino-US economic and trade relationship. What the Sino-US trade relationship will be after China's entry into WTO becomes the main concern problem for both China and the US. So it will be of more practical significance to research Sino-US trade relationship at this moment. For this consideration, the thesis will make discussion and research on Sino-US economic and trade relationship after China's entry into the WTO.
This thesis will make discussion on the main disputes in Sino-US economic and trade relationship which include: Unbalance of trade payment between China and US 2.agricultural products trade S.textitle trade 4.service trade 5.intellectual property. Meanwhile, this thesis will state the advantages and disadvantages of each side in these five aspects, and will give the tactics and approaches to settle the disputes. At the end, the thesis will make the quality and quantity forecasting on the perspective of Sino-US economic and trade relation development which further verify the development trend of Sino-US economic trade relationship after China's entry into the WTO.
In researching the main disputes, this thesis will first research the present situation of Sino-US trade relationship, finding out the gap of two countries, pointing out the roots of disputes, then put forward respective settlement plan against these disputes. This thesis will attempt to expose the advantages and disadvantages of each country by different means. For example, in analyzing Sino-US agricultural products trade, author will set about to the main agricultural products' price and produce cost; In textile, it will set about to discuss the apply rate comparison of no bobbin weaving machine to cotton spinning machine in cotton spinning industry; In service trade, it will illustrate
the variation trend using the Economic Opening level figure and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), which will involve in telecommunication industry. In settlement plan, the thesis will use the forecasting method of GM(1,1) to forecast the Sino-US trade value, farm products trade value, textile and garment trade value.
As China being the member of WTO, it will be of practical significance analyzing and prospecting the Sino-US economic and trade relationship after China's entry into WTO not only to the decision makers of two governments, but also to other trade partners of China.
The structure of this thesis will be as follows: Chapter!Introduction; Chapter2.General explain the present situation and disputes of Sino-US economic and trade relationship; Chapters.Perspective the main disputes of Sino-US trade; Chapter4.Tactics and approaches solving the disputes; Chapters. Prospect forecasting; Chapter 6.Conclusion and policy advice.
本论文针对中美经贸关系中的主要争端展开论述，其中包括：1、中美贸易收支不平衡问题 2、农产品贸易问题 3、纺织品贸易问题 4、服务贸易问题 5、知识产权问题。并从中美两国各自的角度，阐述了双方在这五个方面的利弊得失，提出了解决争端的策略和途径。文章最后就中美经贸关系发展的前景做了定性和定量的预测，进一步证实了中国入世后中美经贸关系的发展趋势。
本论文在研究中美争端时，先从现状着手，通过不同的方法来揭示两国的优势、劣势找出两国之间的差异，指出问题的根源所在，然后针对这些问题，提出中美两国各自的解决方案。对于中美农产品贸易，从两国主要农产品价格、生产成本着手；纺织工业，主要从棉纺织行业中棉纺织机的无梭织机比例比较、化纤行业产品平均生产规模比较展开讨论；服务贸易，则采用经济开放度指标来说明变化趋势，其中分析电信业的现状，引入了比较优势系数(RCA)。解决争端方案部分，本文站在中方、美方的角度提出了各自的见解。此外，前景展望部分本文还结合运用灰色系统预测模型GM(1，1)对入世后中美贸易额、农产品贸易额、纺织品服装贸易额进行预测。预测得到的结果与定性分析的结论一致。
分析展望中国加入WTO之后的中美经贸关系，无论对中美两国政府的决策者，还是对中国的其它主要贸易伙伴，都具有现实意义。本论文旨在通过分析中国入世后中美经贸之间的主要争端，给出解决争端的策略和途径，以促进中美关系稳定健康发展，使彼此的优势和潜力得到充分的发挥。
本论文结构如下：第一章绪论；第二章总述中美经贸关系的现状及争端；第三章透视中美经贸争端；第四章解决中美贸易争端的策略与途径；第五章前景展望；第六章结论和政策建议。
November 11.2001, China formally entered the World Trade Organization (WTO), which opens a new page of China's merging into the global economy. Economic and trade relationship has always been the main body of Sino-US bilateral relationship. For long time, there are many disputes between China and US in many areas, such as politic system, ideology, market mechanism, strategic benefits etc, which have been the obstacles of the smooth development of Sino-US economic and trade relationship. What the Sino-US trade relationship will be after China's entry into WTO becomes the main concern problem for both China and the US. So it will be of more practical significance to research Sino-US trade relationship at this moment. For this consideration, the thesis will make discussion and research on Sino-US economic and trade relationship after China's entry into the WTO.
This thesis will make discussion on the main disputes in Sino-US economic and trade relationship which include: Unbalance of trade payment between China and US 2.agricultural products trade S.textitle trade 4.service trade 5.intellectual property. Meanwhile, this thesis will state the advantages and disadvantages of each side in these five aspects, and will give the tactics and approaches to settle the disputes. At the end, the thesis will make the quality and quantity forecasting on the perspective of Sino-US economic and trade relation development which further verify the development trend of Sino-US economic trade relationship after China's entry into the WTO.
In researching the main disputes, this thesis will first research the present situation of Sino-US trade relationship, finding out the gap of two countries, pointing out the roots of disputes, then put forward respective settlement plan against these disputes. This thesis will attempt to expose the advantages and disadvantages of each country by different means. For example, in analyzing Sino-US agricultural products trade, author will set about to the main agricultural products' price and produce cost; In textile, it will set about to discuss the apply rate comparison of no bobbin weaving machine to cotton spinning machine in cotton spinning industry; In service trade, it will illustrate
the variation trend using the Economic Opening level figure and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), which will involve in telecommunication industry. In settlement plan, the thesis will use the forecasting method of GM(1,1) to forecast the Sino-US trade value, farm products trade value, textile and garment trade value.
As China being the member of WTO, it will be of practical significance analyzing and prospecting the Sino-US economic and trade relationship after China's entry into WTO not only to the decision makers of two governments, but also to other trade partners of China.
The structure of this thesis will be as follows: Chapter!Introduction; Chapter2.General explain the present situation and disputes of Sino-US economic and trade relationship; Chapters.Perspective the main disputes of Sino-US trade; Chapter4.Tactics and approaches solving the disputes; Chapters. Prospect forecasting; Chapter 6.Conclusion and policy advice.
引文
[1] 王治权．中美经贸关系．国际贸易，1999．3
[2] Nichals.R. Lardy, China and the WTO, Brookings Policy Brief (The Brookings Instituton), No. 10 (November 1996)
[3] James harding, China Urges End to High-Tech Ban, Financial Times, October 18, 1997
[4] 程大为．美国国内经济关系对中国“入世”的影响．国际贸易问题，2000(6)：3～5
[5] 李善同：研究员、国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部部长。王直：美国农业部经济研究局农业经济学家。
[1] Nicholas R. Lardy, Normalizing Economic Relations with China (Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, May22, 1997)
[2] Nicholas R. Lardy, China and the WTO, Brookings Policy Brief (The Brookings Institution), No. 10 November 1996)
[3] James Harding, China Verges End to High-Tech Ban, Financial Times, October 18, 1997
[4] Asian Wall Street Journal, November 17, 1999, p. 11
[5] K. C. Fung, Lawrance J. Lau, New Estimates of the United States-China Bilateral Trade Balances (Stanford: Institute for International Studies, Stanford university, April 1999)
[6] J.P. Voon and Y.Y. Kueh, Country of Origin, China's Valued-added Exports, and Sino-American Economic Relations Conference, Hongkong, November 15-16, 1999
[7] Zhangjialin: US-China Trade issues after the WTO and the PNTR deal, a Chinese Perspective, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University, 2000, No. 103.
[8] Fact Sheet: China: WTO and PNTR, released by the Bureau of Public Affairs U.S. Department of State, May 24, 1997
[9] Fact Sheet: US-China Relations, released by the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State, June 20, 1997
[10] Shaozongwei: China, sign landmark pact, China Daily, November 15, 1999
[11] Zhi Wang: The Impact of China's WTO Entry on the World Labour-intensive Export Market: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis, The World Economy, May 1999
[12] 袁嘉祖．灰色系统理论及应用．北京：科学出版社，1991
[13] 赖观荣，叶青．WTO：中国加盟——入世的应对策略．厦门大学出版社，1999
[14] 唐铁汉，郑志海．WTO知识简明读本．国家行政学院出版社，2000
[15] 郑志海，薛荣久，张汉林．世界贸易组织知识读本．中国对外经济贸易出版社，1999
[16] 王新奎．加入WTO后的中美贸易关系．国际市场，2000(7)
[17] 汤传锋．美国技术出口与中美技术贸易．国际贸易问题，2000(12)
[18] 程大为．美国国内经济关系对中国“入世”的影响．国际贸易问题，2000(6)
[19] 肖炼．WTO与中美经贸关系．中国国情国力，2000(2)
[20] 邵望予．中国入世与服务贸易开放剖析．世界贸易组织动态与研究，2000(3)
[21] 陈音子．美国的贸易政策．世界贸易组织动态与研究，2000(3)
[22] 李文昌，杨会晏．中关经贸争端的启示．经济纵横，2000(2)
[23] 陈雪梅，黄华绮．中性贸易政策与我国加入WTO．特区经济，2000(1)
[24] 庄峻．美国“国家出口战略”与“全球网络贸易战略”对我国外贸的挑战及对策．世界经济研究，1999(3)
[25] 王琪英．WTO与中美关系．国际商务研究，2000(1)
[26] 贾继锋．加入WTO与中国的对外经贸关系．世界经济研究，1998(6)
[27] 赖观荣．我国加入WTO后的关税调整．税务研究，2000(7)
[28] 周晴．PNTR与美国外贸法制．国际商务研究，2001(1)
[29] 张杰．中美商品贸易的结构分析．国际商务研究，2000(5)
[30] 刘杰．中美经贸关系中的非经济因素．世界经济研究，1999(3)
[31] Robert C. Feensira, 海闻，Wing T. Woo．美中双边贸易平衡：数据及其决定因素．国际贸易问题，1998(7)
[31] 孔凡昌．跨越中国“入世”后的中美经贸关系展望．国际贸易问题，2000(2)
[32] 周晴．中美贸易与PNTR．世界贸易组织与研究，2000(6)
[33] 黄国祥，赵霞．浅析美国对华贸易赤字产生的原因．对外经济贸易大学学报，2000(5)
[34] 阮青松，施国庆．中美贸易额的分析与展望．商业研究，2000(6)
[35] 杨圣明．“入世”对我国经济的影响及其对策(上)．财贸经济，2000(2)
[36] 张汉林．WTO体制对我国出口市场开拓的影响．国际经贸消息报，2000．9．2
[37] 王治权．中美经贸关系．国际贸易，1999(3)
[38] 吕其昌，张炎宇．对华PNTR在美国众议院通过的评析．现代国际关系，2000(6)
[39] 黄繁华．中国经济开放度及其国际比较研究．国际贸易问题，2001(6)
[40] 卢圣亮，张黎光．发展中欧贸易的若干思考．财贸经济，2000(2)
[2] Nichals.R. Lardy, China and the WTO, Brookings Policy Brief (The Brookings Instituton), No. 10 (November 1996)
[3] James harding, China Urges End to High-Tech Ban, Financial Times, October 18, 1997
[4] 程大为．美国国内经济关系对中国“入世”的影响．国际贸易问题，2000(6)：3～5
[5] 李善同：研究员、国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部部长。王直：美国农业部经济研究局农业经济学家。
[1] Nicholas R. Lardy, Normalizing Economic Relations with China (Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, May22, 1997)
[2] Nicholas R. Lardy, China and the WTO, Brookings Policy Brief (The Brookings Institution), No. 10 November 1996)
[3] James Harding, China Verges End to High-Tech Ban, Financial Times, October 18, 1997
[4] Asian Wall Street Journal, November 17, 1999, p. 11
[5] K. C. Fung, Lawrance J. Lau, New Estimates of the United States-China Bilateral Trade Balances (Stanford: Institute for International Studies, Stanford university, April 1999)
[6] J.P. Voon and Y.Y. Kueh, Country of Origin, China's Valued-added Exports, and Sino-American Economic Relations Conference, Hongkong, November 15-16, 1999
[7] Zhangjialin: US-China Trade issues after the WTO and the PNTR deal, a Chinese Perspective, Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, Stanford University, 2000, No. 103.
[8] Fact Sheet: China: WTO and PNTR, released by the Bureau of Public Affairs U.S. Department of State, May 24, 1997
[9] Fact Sheet: US-China Relations, released by the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, U.S. Department of State, June 20, 1997
[10] Shaozongwei: China, sign landmark pact, China Daily, November 15, 1999
[11] Zhi Wang: The Impact of China's WTO Entry on the World Labour-intensive Export Market: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis, The World Economy, May 1999
[12] 袁嘉祖．灰色系统理论及应用．北京：科学出版社，1991
[13] 赖观荣，叶青．WTO：中国加盟——入世的应对策略．厦门大学出版社，1999
[14] 唐铁汉，郑志海．WTO知识简明读本．国家行政学院出版社，2000
[15] 郑志海，薛荣久，张汉林．世界贸易组织知识读本．中国对外经济贸易出版社，1999
[16] 王新奎．加入WTO后的中美贸易关系．国际市场，2000(7)
[17] 汤传锋．美国技术出口与中美技术贸易．国际贸易问题，2000(12)
[18] 程大为．美国国内经济关系对中国“入世”的影响．国际贸易问题，2000(6)
[19] 肖炼．WTO与中美经贸关系．中国国情国力，2000(2)
[20] 邵望予．中国入世与服务贸易开放剖析．世界贸易组织动态与研究，2000(3)
[21] 陈音子．美国的贸易政策．世界贸易组织动态与研究，2000(3)
[22] 李文昌，杨会晏．中关经贸争端的启示．经济纵横，2000(2)
[23] 陈雪梅，黄华绮．中性贸易政策与我国加入WTO．特区经济，2000(1)
[24] 庄峻．美国“国家出口战略”与“全球网络贸易战略”对我国外贸的挑战及对策．世界经济研究，1999(3)
[25] 王琪英．WTO与中美关系．国际商务研究，2000(1)
[26] 贾继锋．加入WTO与中国的对外经贸关系．世界经济研究，1998(6)
[27] 赖观荣．我国加入WTO后的关税调整．税务研究，2000(7)
[28] 周晴．PNTR与美国外贸法制．国际商务研究，2001(1)
[29] 张杰．中美商品贸易的结构分析．国际商务研究，2000(5)
[30] 刘杰．中美经贸关系中的非经济因素．世界经济研究，1999(3)
[31] Robert C. Feensira, 海闻，Wing T. Woo．美中双边贸易平衡：数据及其决定因素．国际贸易问题，1998(7)
[31] 孔凡昌．跨越中国“入世”后的中美经贸关系展望．国际贸易问题，2000(2)
[32] 周晴．中美贸易与PNTR．世界贸易组织与研究，2000(6)
[33] 黄国祥，赵霞．浅析美国对华贸易赤字产生的原因．对外经济贸易大学学报，2000(5)
[34] 阮青松，施国庆．中美贸易额的分析与展望．商业研究，2000(6)
[35] 杨圣明．“入世”对我国经济的影响及其对策(上)．财贸经济，2000(2)
[36] 张汉林．WTO体制对我国出口市场开拓的影响．国际经贸消息报，2000．9．2
[37] 王治权．中美经贸关系．国际贸易，1999(3)
[38] 吕其昌，张炎宇．对华PNTR在美国众议院通过的评析．现代国际关系，2000(6)
[39] 黄繁华．中国经济开放度及其国际比较研究．国际贸易问题，2001(6)
[40] 卢圣亮，张黎光．发展中欧贸易的若干思考．财贸经济，2000(2)