中国通货膨胀：外部冲击与传导机制
摘要
通货膨胀的核心问题是其传导机制问题,随着全球经济金融一体化进程的持续不断推进,各国经常项目和资本金融项目的联系日益紧密,全球性通货膨胀通过贸易渠道、货币渠道的传导从而带动一国物价水平上涨,造成国内通货膨胀的外部冲击型特征日益明显。纵观新世纪以来中国的这几轮通胀周期,以CPI为代表的最终消费品价格快速上涨的同时,无不伴随着国际大宗商品价格的暴涨,并且从上涨幅度和时间上的先后顺序来看,外部价格的波动均具有明显的领先性和输入性,这些市场特征的出现,使得理论界和实业界在讨论开放环境下通胀产生的原因时,都无法回避外部价格因素对国内价格体系的冲击这一重要命题。
本文即是研究在开放条件下,中国通货膨胀的传导机制问题。导论部分之后,本文从理论到实际、从定性到定量系统地分析了外部价格冲击与中国通货膨胀的背景、形成与传导机制问题。从本文第二章开始,首先总结了开放环境下通货膨胀的传导机制的理论框架,随后展开了对国际通货膨胀传导机制的一般理论分析,确立了通胀的国际传导机制与传导渠道的理论基础；第三章从全球视角下的宏观基本面演进出发,具体针对国内外经济和金融环境典型事实的描述,多种角度分析了我国与全球经济发展的实际情况,并以此为背景给出了符合我国实际特征的输入型通货膨胀传导机制。并以传统的IS-LM模型为基本框架,结合我国实际情况,通过分析商品市场、货币市场等多个环节,建立了输入型通货膨胀传导机制的理论模型。
随后的第四、五章主要是基于中国事实的实证分析。第四章以投入产出价格模型作为研究方法,实证分析了外部价格的变动对中国各个产业的影响状况,特别的,通过模拟以原油和粮食为代表的大宗商品价格的波动,定量测算了其对国内的直接冲击程度,切实给出了价格传导的具体路径,并量化出大宗商品价格变化对部门乃至总体通胀的影响,为政策制定给出了可求本溯源、有迹可循的清晰思路。
在对我国上中下游价格传导机制的研究中,本文在部门分析的基础上,从产业层次分析价格指数之间的共振与反馈关系,价格指数与产业间的对应是最大的特点,根据最终价格指数间的共振与反馈的量化关系,构建了向量误差修正模型,进一步验证了价格的国内传导机制中存在自上而下的传导和自下而上的价格倒逼机制。不仅理清了价格传导的复杂关系,还可推导出各产业的市场特点以及该特点对价格传导的影响,有助于找出阻碍价格传导的产业节点,利于政策按图索骥。
在政策建议方面,中国面对的外部冲击型通胀压力其更深层次的原因则是经济发展的失衡,包括长期投资过热、流动性过剩以及经常项目顺差等,这些因素时常诱发外部冲击；另外,经济发展失衡表现出来的结果是供需失衡,进而导致价格上涨,在这种条件下,中国的通胀起因不能完全归之于外部成本因素的波动——外部冲击也仅仅是长期经济失衡积累下通胀压力的导火索。因此,在具体治理政策的运用上,除了作为常规性应急手段的货币政策和财政政策以外,更需加强通胀的长期治理措施,运用多种政策工具从根本上改善中国经济长期失衡的局面,为中国经济的长期可持续发展奠定基础。
The core issue of inflation is from its transmission mechanism. With the process of global economic and financial integration advancing, the connection between current account and the capital and financial account of all the countries becomes increasingly close; in this case, the worldwide inflation will drive up the price level of one country through the conduction of trade and monetary channels, highlighting increasingly the external shock impact on domestic inflation. Throughout the inflation cycles of China in the new century, the final consumer price represented by CPI increases rapidly all accompanied by the soaring international commodity prices. According to the growth rates and time, the volatility of the external price presents lead and import characteristics, which make the impact of external price factor on domestic price system unavoidable, when discuss the inflation causes under an open environment.
This paper studies the transmission mechanism of China's inflation under the open condition. After the introduction, it systematically analyzes, from theory to practice, from qualitative to quantitative, the external price shocks and the background and formation of China's inflation as well as the transmission mechanism. In the second chapter, the paper summarizes the theoretical framework of transmission mechanism of the inflation under the opening environment, makes a general analysis of the transmission mechanism of the international inflation and establishes the theoretical basis of international transmission mechanism and transmission channel of the inflation. According to the description of typical facts of the economic and financial environment at home and abroad, starting from the evolution of macro fundamentals in the global perspective, the third chapter analyzes the reality of China and global economy development from different perspectives. And under this background, it offers the transmission mechanism of the imported inflation, which is in line with our actual characteristics. After analyzing commodity markets, currency markets and other aspects, a theoretical model of imported inflation transmission mechanism is established on the framework of traditional IS-LM model as well as combined with China's actual situation,
The chapter Ⅳ and Ⅴ are positive analyses based on the China's reality. In chapter IV, there has empirically analyzed the impact of external price changes on China's industries by input-output price model; particularly through simulating the fluctuations in crude oil and food prices. It makes quantitative estimates of its direct impact on the domestic market and effectively gives the specific transmitting path, and quantifies the impact of commodity price changes on the sectors and even the overall inflation, which offers fundamental and clear thinking for policy making.
In the study of the price transmission mechanism of China's middle and lower reaches, on the basis of analysis of different sectors, the paper makes industrial-level analysis of the resonance and feedback relationship of the price indexes and points the biggest feature of the correspondence between the price index and industry. Depending on the quantitative relationship of the resonance and feedback of price indexes, a vector error correction model is built to further validate that there exists top-down conduction in the price of the domestic transmission mechanism and bottom-up reversed transmission mechanism. This not only clarifies the complex relationship of price transmission, but can also deduce the market characteristics of each industry as well as their impact on price transmission. It helps to identify the industrial nodes that prevent the price transmission and is good for policy making.
The final conclusion is that the deeper reason for China facing inflationary pressure caused by external shock is the long-term imbalance of China's economic development including long-term investment overheating, excess liquidity, and current account surplus, which often induce external shock. In addition, the imbalance of economic development presents the supply-demand unbalance, resulting in price rise. Under this condition, the cause of inflation in China cannot be completely attributed to the fluctuations of the external cost factors---external costs shock is just the fuse of inflationary pressures resulting from the accumulation of long-term economic imbalance. Therefore, when using control policies, it is recommended to strengthen the long-term control and countermeasures against inflation, other than an emergency means of conventional monetary policy, so as to radically improve the situation of China's long-term economic imbalance by using a variety of policy tools and lay the foundation for long-term sustainable development of China's economy.
本文即是研究在开放条件下,中国通货膨胀的传导机制问题。导论部分之后,本文从理论到实际、从定性到定量系统地分析了外部价格冲击与中国通货膨胀的背景、形成与传导机制问题。从本文第二章开始,首先总结了开放环境下通货膨胀的传导机制的理论框架,随后展开了对国际通货膨胀传导机制的一般理论分析,确立了通胀的国际传导机制与传导渠道的理论基础；第三章从全球视角下的宏观基本面演进出发,具体针对国内外经济和金融环境典型事实的描述,多种角度分析了我国与全球经济发展的实际情况,并以此为背景给出了符合我国实际特征的输入型通货膨胀传导机制。并以传统的IS-LM模型为基本框架,结合我国实际情况,通过分析商品市场、货币市场等多个环节,建立了输入型通货膨胀传导机制的理论模型。
随后的第四、五章主要是基于中国事实的实证分析。第四章以投入产出价格模型作为研究方法,实证分析了外部价格的变动对中国各个产业的影响状况,特别的,通过模拟以原油和粮食为代表的大宗商品价格的波动,定量测算了其对国内的直接冲击程度,切实给出了价格传导的具体路径,并量化出大宗商品价格变化对部门乃至总体通胀的影响,为政策制定给出了可求本溯源、有迹可循的清晰思路。
在对我国上中下游价格传导机制的研究中,本文在部门分析的基础上,从产业层次分析价格指数之间的共振与反馈关系,价格指数与产业间的对应是最大的特点,根据最终价格指数间的共振与反馈的量化关系,构建了向量误差修正模型,进一步验证了价格的国内传导机制中存在自上而下的传导和自下而上的价格倒逼机制。不仅理清了价格传导的复杂关系,还可推导出各产业的市场特点以及该特点对价格传导的影响,有助于找出阻碍价格传导的产业节点,利于政策按图索骥。
在政策建议方面,中国面对的外部冲击型通胀压力其更深层次的原因则是经济发展的失衡,包括长期投资过热、流动性过剩以及经常项目顺差等,这些因素时常诱发外部冲击；另外,经济发展失衡表现出来的结果是供需失衡,进而导致价格上涨,在这种条件下,中国的通胀起因不能完全归之于外部成本因素的波动——外部冲击也仅仅是长期经济失衡积累下通胀压力的导火索。因此,在具体治理政策的运用上,除了作为常规性应急手段的货币政策和财政政策以外,更需加强通胀的长期治理措施,运用多种政策工具从根本上改善中国经济长期失衡的局面,为中国经济的长期可持续发展奠定基础。
The core issue of inflation is from its transmission mechanism. With the process of global economic and financial integration advancing, the connection between current account and the capital and financial account of all the countries becomes increasingly close; in this case, the worldwide inflation will drive up the price level of one country through the conduction of trade and monetary channels, highlighting increasingly the external shock impact on domestic inflation. Throughout the inflation cycles of China in the new century, the final consumer price represented by CPI increases rapidly all accompanied by the soaring international commodity prices. According to the growth rates and time, the volatility of the external price presents lead and import characteristics, which make the impact of external price factor on domestic price system unavoidable, when discuss the inflation causes under an open environment.
This paper studies the transmission mechanism of China's inflation under the open condition. After the introduction, it systematically analyzes, from theory to practice, from qualitative to quantitative, the external price shocks and the background and formation of China's inflation as well as the transmission mechanism. In the second chapter, the paper summarizes the theoretical framework of transmission mechanism of the inflation under the opening environment, makes a general analysis of the transmission mechanism of the international inflation and establishes the theoretical basis of international transmission mechanism and transmission channel of the inflation. According to the description of typical facts of the economic and financial environment at home and abroad, starting from the evolution of macro fundamentals in the global perspective, the third chapter analyzes the reality of China and global economy development from different perspectives. And under this background, it offers the transmission mechanism of the imported inflation, which is in line with our actual characteristics. After analyzing commodity markets, currency markets and other aspects, a theoretical model of imported inflation transmission mechanism is established on the framework of traditional IS-LM model as well as combined with China's actual situation,
The chapter Ⅳ and Ⅴ are positive analyses based on the China's reality. In chapter IV, there has empirically analyzed the impact of external price changes on China's industries by input-output price model; particularly through simulating the fluctuations in crude oil and food prices. It makes quantitative estimates of its direct impact on the domestic market and effectively gives the specific transmitting path, and quantifies the impact of commodity price changes on the sectors and even the overall inflation, which offers fundamental and clear thinking for policy making.
In the study of the price transmission mechanism of China's middle and lower reaches, on the basis of analysis of different sectors, the paper makes industrial-level analysis of the resonance and feedback relationship of the price indexes and points the biggest feature of the correspondence between the price index and industry. Depending on the quantitative relationship of the resonance and feedback of price indexes, a vector error correction model is built to further validate that there exists top-down conduction in the price of the domestic transmission mechanism and bottom-up reversed transmission mechanism. This not only clarifies the complex relationship of price transmission, but can also deduce the market characteristics of each industry as well as their impact on price transmission. It helps to identify the industrial nodes that prevent the price transmission and is good for policy making.
The final conclusion is that the deeper reason for China facing inflationary pressure caused by external shock is the long-term imbalance of China's economic development including long-term investment overheating, excess liquidity, and current account surplus, which often induce external shock. In addition, the imbalance of economic development presents the supply-demand unbalance, resulting in price rise. Under this condition, the cause of inflation in China cannot be completely attributed to the fluctuations of the external cost factors---external costs shock is just the fuse of inflationary pressures resulting from the accumulation of long-term economic imbalance. Therefore, when using control policies, it is recommended to strengthen the long-term control and countermeasures against inflation, other than an emergency means of conventional monetary policy, so as to radically improve the situation of China's long-term economic imbalance by using a variety of policy tools and lay the foundation for long-term sustainable development of China's economy.
引文
4陈岱孙,厉以宁.国际金融学说史[M]北京：中国金融出版社.1991.
5 Chossudovsky, M., W.Sellekaerts. A Comparison of Optimal and Actual Policies for High Employment and Price Stability under External Inflationary Conditions: The Canadian Experience[J]. Southern Economic Joumal.1974.41(2):206-214.
6 Branson.W.H. Monetaristand Keynesian Models of the Transmissionof Inflation[J].The Ameriean Eeonomie Review.1975,65(2):115-119.
7 Branson, W.H. R.C.Marston.Prieeand Out Put Adjustlnentin Japanese Manufaeturing[Z].Nationa] Bureau of Eeonomic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.1989.
8 Choi, J.J. International Trade and Transmission of Inflation in a General Equilibrium Framework[D].1980.
9 Hume,D. Of the Balance of Trade[J].Essays, Moral, Political and Literary,1752.1:330-341.
10 Krugman, P.R. Geography and Trade[M].MIT Press,1991.
11Mundell, R.A. Monetary Theory:Inflation, Interest and Growth in the World Economy[M].Pacific Palisades,Calif: Good year Publishing Co.,1971.
12 Johnson. H.G. The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory [J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.1972.7(02):1555-1572.
13 Aukrust, O. Inflation in the Open Economy: A Norwegian Model[M].Oslo Statistisk sentralbyra.1977.
14 Forslund. A.,N. Gottfries and A. Westermark. Real and Nominal Wage Adjustment in Open Economies[M]. Munich:CES,2006.
15 Branson. W.H. R.C.Marston. Price and Out Put Adjustlnentin Japanese Manufacturing[Z].National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.1989.
16约翰·伊特韦尔.默里·米尔盖特.彼得·纽曼编.新帕尔格高夫经济学大辞典[M].经济科学出版社,1996.详自Eatwell. John,Murray Milgate and Peter Newman Edited, The New Palgrave:A Dictionary of Economies, in four volumes. The Macmillan Press Limited,1987.
17余珊萍,钟伟.论通货膨胀和国际收支调节[J].国际经贸探索,1997(6)：12-16.
18卢锋.大国经济与输入型通胀论[J].国际金融评论,2008(7-8)：19-23.
19林连连.管理浮动汇率制与世界性通货膨胀[J].世界经济.1987(1)：51-57.
20乔海曙,邓婷.我国输入型通货膨胀：形成机理与中国样本[J],宁夏大学学报,2007(3)：112-118.
21张哲人,赵鹏,周梅.对输入型通货膨胀压力问题的初步探讨[J].中国经贸导刊,2007(18)：20—12.
22邓敏.防治通缩的国际传导[J].经济学家，2001(2)：126-127.
23张平，戴磊.中国经济增长与“后危机”时代的均衡调整[J].现代经济探讨,2011(1)：5-10
24张晓晶,抑制通胀的三大关注点,光明日报,2011-5-25
25张连城,中国未来几年的经济走势与宏观经济政策取向[J],经济社会体制比较(双月刊)，2010(1)：41-45.
2“阎先东,冯克然.通货膨胀—国际收支角度的考察[J].财贸经济,1997,(4)：51-57.
27陈全功.程蹊.我国对外贸易影响国内通货膨胀水平的路径分析[J].国际金融研究.2004(2)：51-56.
28 Leblanc M., M.D. Chinn. Do High oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence From G-5 Countries[J].Business Economies.2004,34:38-48.
29陈克新.原材料价格上涨不会引发严重通货膨胀[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(6)：28-29
30孙婉洁,藏旭恒.试析外资流入对我国通货膨胀的影响[J].经济研究.1995(9)：60-66.
31范爱军.路颖.引进外资与通货膨胀的关联分析及对策探讨[J].经济研究,1995(9)：67-71.
32郑愚超.近年来中国通货膨胀与外资流入——另—种可能的解释以及相关政策理论模型[J].经济研究,1996(3)：34-42.
33阎先东,冯克然.通货膨胀—国际收支角度的考察[J].财贸经济,1997,(4)：51-57.
34Hume, D. Of the Balance of Trade[J].Essays. Moral. Political and Literary.1752.1:330-341.
39 Hamada, K., M. Sakurai. International Transmission of Stagflation under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J].The Journal of Political Economy.1978,86(5):877-895.
40 Choi, J.J. International Trade and Transmission of Inflation in a General Equilibrium Framework[D].1980.
41 Branson, W.H. R.C.Marston.Prieeand Out Put Adjustlnentin Japanese Manufacturing[Z].Nationa] Bureau of Eeonomic Research Cambridge, Mass.,USA.1989.
42 Goodfriend, M., R. King. The Case for Price Stability[Z].National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.2001.
43 Johnson. H.G. The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.1972,7(02):1555-1572.
44 Aukrust, O. Prim I:A Model of the Price and Income Distribution Mechanism of an Open Economy[J].Review of income and wealth.1970.16(1):51-78.
45 Edgren. G., K. O. Faxen and C. E. Odhner. Wages, Growth and the Distribution of income[J].The Swedish Jourrnal of Economics.1969,71(3):133-160.
49刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劫.投入产出分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2006.
55高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2005：126-130.
56《张连城：抑制通胀根本在于避免经济过热》,人民网-人民日报,2011年3月17日http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/hgds/20110317/06559545922.shtml
57张连城,韩蓓.中国经济潜在增长率分析——HP滤波平滑参数的选择及应用.经济与管理研究,2009,(3)：22-28.
59樊纲,张曙光.双轨过渡与“双轨调控”(上)[j].经济研究,1993,(10)
60吴敬琏：对“经济过热”的分析与对策,搜狐财经,http://business.sohu.com/2004/01/12/26/article218412622.shtml
61Mishkin,Frederic."The Causes of Inflation."NBER WorkingPaper,1453,1984.
63小松宪治,刘军生,通货膨胀的多样性和日本的通货膨胀,中国工业经济研究,1993(11)：64-69
64蔡剑波,战后初期日本治理通货膨胀的经验对我国的启示,经济学动态,1995(9)：58-61
65刘瑞,通货膨胀与金融政策——以日本两次石油危机时期为中心,日本学刊[J].2009(1)：77-90
[1]Alessandro Cologne, Matteo Manera. Oil prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper,2005, (9)
[2]Aukrust, O. Inflation in the Open Economy: A Norwegian Model[M].Oslo Statistisk sentralbyra,1977.
[3]Aukrust, O. Prim I:A Model of the Price and Income Distribution Mechanism of an Open Economy [J].Review of income and wealth,1970,16(l):51-78.
[4]Aurikko, E.Exehange Rate Polieyand ImPorted Inflationina Credit Rationing Economy [J]. Empirical Eeonomies.1982,7(1):155-173.
[5]Benigno, G., P. Benigno. Designing Targeting Rules for International Monetary Policy Cooperation[J].Journal of Monetary Economies.2006,53(3):473-506.
[6]Benigno, G., P. Benigno and C. F. E. P. Research. Price Stability as a Nash Equilibriumin Monetary Open Economy Models[M]. Centre for Economic Policy Researeh,2001.
[7]Bernanke, B. S. Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting[C].2007.
[8]Bernanke, B. S., M. Gertler, M. Watson, C.A.Sims and B. M. Friedman. Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of oil Price Shocks[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.1997(1):91-157.
[9]Branson,W.H.Monetaristand Keynesian Models of the Transmissionof Inflation[J].The Ameriean Eeonomie Review.1975,65(2):115-119.
[10]Branson, W.H. R.C.Marston.Prieeand Out Put Adjustlnentin Japanese Manufacturing[Z].Nationa] Bureau of Eeonomic Research Cambridge, Mass.,USA.1989.
[II]Brown, A. J., J. Darby. World Inflation since1950:An Inrernational Comparative Study[M].Cambridge University Press,2010.
[12]Browne, F. X. The International Transmission of Inflation to a Small Open Economy under Fixed Exchange Rates and Highly Interest-Sensitive Capital Flows:An Empirical Analysis[J]. European Economic Review.1984,25:187-212.
[13]Choi, J.J. International Trade and Transmission of Inflation in a General Equilibrium Framework[D].1980.
[14]Choi, J.J. International Trade and Transmission of Inflation[M].Lanham:Maryland and London, University Press of America,1985.
[15]Choi,J.J. M.I.Nadiri. Trade Structure and Transmission of Inflation:Theory and Japanese Experience[J]. NBER Working Paper.1982.
[16]Chossudovsky, M., W.Sellekaerts. A Comparison of Optimal and Actual Policies for High Employment and Price Stability under External Inflationary Conditions:The Canadian Experience[J]. Southern Economic Journal.1974,41(2):206-214.
[17]Dawyer J., Lam R. The two stages of exchange rate pass-through:implications for inflation[J], Australian Economic Papers,1995(34):157-179.
[18]Dell, S. S., R. Lawrence. The Balance of Payments Adjustment Process in Developing Countries[M]. Pergamon Press.1980.
[19]Dornbusch. R. Tariffs and Nontraded Goods[J]. Journal of International Economics.1974,4(2):177-185.
[20]Dornbusch, R. Devaluation, Money, and Nontraded Goods[J].The American Economic Review.1973,63(5):871-880.
[21]Dornbusch, R., S. Fischer and P. A. Samuelson. Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods[J].American Economic Review.1977,67(5):823.
[22]Edgren, G., K.O. Faxen and C. E. Odhner. Wages, Growth and the Distribution of income[J].The Swedish Jourrnal of Economics.1969,71 (3):133-160.
[23]Forslund, A.,N. Gottfries and A. Westermark. Real and Nominal Wage Adjustment in Open Economies[M]. Munich:CES,2006.
[24]Friedman M. The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory[J]. Institute of Economic Occasional Paper33,1970.24-27.
[25]Gisser, M., T. H. Goodwin. Crude oil and the Macroeconomy:Tests of some Popular Notions:Note[J].Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.1986,18(1):95-103.
[26]Goodfriend, M., R. King. The Case for Price Stability[Z].National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA,2001.
[27]Haberler, G. Inflation as a Worldwide Phenomenon:An Overview[J]. Weltwir Tschaft Liches Archiv.1974.110:179-193.
[28]Hamada, K., M. Sakurai. International Transmission of Stagflation under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J].The Journal of Political Economy.1978.86(5):877-895.
[29]Hamilton, J. D. oil and the Macroeconomy since World War Ⅱ [J].The Journal of Polltical Economy.1983.91 (2):228-248.
[30]Hume, D. Of the Balance of Trade[J].Essays, Moral, Political and Literary.1752.1:330-341.
[31]Johnson, H.G. Secular Inflation and the International Monetary System[J]. Journal of Money,Credit andBanking.1973,5(1):509-520.
[32]Johnson, H.G. The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory[J]. Joumal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.1972,7(02):1555-1572.
[33]Kara, H. F. Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-through:The Turkish Experience[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.2008,44(6):52-66.
[34]Krugman, P.R. Geography and Trade[M].MIT Press,1991.
[35]Leblanc M., M.D. Chinn. Do High oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence From G-5 Countries[J].Business Economies.2004,34:38-48.
[36]Menon J.The degree and determinants of exchange rate pass-through:market structure non-tariff barriers and multinational corporations[J]. Economic Journal,1996(106):434-440.
[37]Michael R. Darby. International Transmission of Inflation:Its Economics and Its Politics [J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1981,72(2):185-210.
[38]Mishkin, Frederic."The Causes of Inflation." NBER WorkingPaper,1453,1984.
[39]Mundell, R.A. Monetary Theory:Inflation, Interest and Growth in the World Economy[M].Pacific Palisades, Calif.:Good year Publishing Co.,1971.
[40]Nell, K.5. Imported Inflation in South Africa:An Empirical Study[M]. Canterbury:Univ.of Kent, Dep. of Economics,2000.
[41]Nell, K.5. The Structuralist Thory of Imported Inflation:An Application to South Africa[J].Applied Economics.2004,36:1431-1444.
[42]Obstfeld, M., K. Rogoff. Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.2002(117):503-535.
[43]OCEO observer. The International Transmission of Inflation[J].1973,45(8):27-32.
[44]Otani, I. Inflation in an Open Economy: A Case Study of the Philippines[J]. Staff papers——International Monetary Fund.1975,22(3):750-774.
[45]Oudiz, G., J. Sachs. Macroeconomic Policy Coordination Among the Industrial Economics[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.1984(1):1-76.
[46]Parkin M, Lailder D. Inflation:a survey [J]. Economic Journal,1975, 85(12):741-809.
[47]Phillip Cagan, Imported Inflation 1973-1974 and the Accommodation Issue[J]. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,1980,12(2):1-15.
[48]Rabin, A.A Reexamination of the Acceleration of worldwide Inflation in the Early19705[J].Journal of Maeroeeonomies.1987,9(2):275-285.
[49]R.F Engle, C.W.J. Granger. Long-run Economic Relationships:Readings in Cointegration,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998.
[50]Sheehey, E.J. On the Measurement of Imported Inflation in Developing Countries[J]. Review of worldEconomics.1979,115(1):68-79.
[51]Shinkai, Y. A Model of Imported Inflation[J]. The Journal of Political Economy.1973,81 (4):962-971.
[52]Shinkai, Y. Business Pricing Policies in Japanese Manufacturing Industry[J]. The Journal of Industrial Economics.1974,22(4):255-264.
[53]Weintraub, S. The Price Level in the Open Economy[J]. Kyklos.1977,30(1):22-37.
[54]Woodford, M. Inflation Stabilization and Welfare[J]. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics.2002,2(1):1.
[55]Yang Jian, Guo Hui,Wang Zijun. International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries:A data-determined VAR analysis [J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier,2004,30(10):2681-2700.
[56]Yeldan, E. Conflicting Interests and Structural Inflation:Turkey,1980-1990[J]. The Pakistan Development Review.1993,32(3):303-327.
[57]蔡剑波,战后初期日本治理通货膨胀的经验对我国的启示[J],经济学动态,1995(9)：58-61
[58]曹捍东.基于VAR模型的中国CPI分析[J].统计与决策,2006(14)：76-78.
[59]陈碧琼,何燕.我国外汇储备与CPI波动动态传导机制研究[J].国际经贸探索,2009(5)：69-73.
[60]陈岱孙,厉以宁.国际金融学说史[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1991.
[61]陈国辉,段鹏.我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀[J].经济管理,2007(1)：26-31.
[62]陈克新.原材料价格上涨不会引发严重通货膨胀[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2003(6)：28-29.
[63]陈浪南,何秀红,陈云.人民币汇率波动的价格传导效应研究[J].国际金融研究2008(6)：55-58.
[64]陈全功,程蹊.我国对外贸易影响国内通货膨胀水平的路径分析[J].国际金融研究，2004(2)：51-56.
[65]陈岩.通货膨胀[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2004.
[66]陈愉瑜.全球通货膨胀的理论基础及现状分析[J].当代社科视野,2008(5).
[67]丛阳.试析通货膨胀的国际传递[J].国际金融研究,1994,(6)：26-28.
[68]邓敏.防治通缩的国际传导[J].经济学家,2001(2)：126-127.
[69]戴冠来.当前我国通货膨胀的程度和治理[J].价格理论与实践,2008(7)：16-17.
[70]段丽丽.输入型通货膨胀的传导途径分析[D],天津：天津财经大学,2009：1-33.
[71]范爱军,路颖.引进外资与通货膨胀的关联分析及对策探讨[J].经济研究,1995(9)：67-71.
[72]范从来.菲利普斯曲线与我国现阶段的货币政策目标[J].管理世界,2000(6).
[73]范志勇.成本推动型通货膨胀的含义、甄别和反通货膨胀政策：一个文献研究[J]，世界经济,2010(1)：123-140
[74]高善文.在周期的拐点上：从数据看中国经济的波动[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2006.
[75]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005：126-130.
[76]葛红玲,张景富.我国产业结构调整的思路与对策[J].商业经济与管理,2000,(11)：12-15.
[77]龚六堂.高级宏观经济学[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,2001.
[78]古扎拉蒂.计量经济学(第三版中译本)[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[79]管华雨,张晓田.论发展中国家的货币冲销政策[J].金融研究,2000(7)：101-108.
[80]国家发展改革委外事司供稿.对当前全球通货膨胀形势的分析与思考[J].中国经贸导刊,2008(11).
[81]国家信息中心政策动向课题组.物价周期性震荡上行调控需要“以粮为纲”——当前物价形势分析及调控政策建议[N].中证报，2008,02.13.
[82]国家统计局课题组.我国通货膨胀的趋势分析[J].统计研究,2005,(5)：3-9.
[83]哈继铭.治理通货膨胀要防更要扛——美国经济下滑背景下的中国对策[J].中国金融,2008(9)：37-35.
[84]韩剑.全球产出缺口与中国的通胀变动：基于扩展的菲利普斯曲线研究[J].国际金融研究,2009a(8)：70-76.
[85]贺力平,樊纲,胡嘉妮.消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数：谁带动谁?[J].经济研究,2008(11)：16-26.
[86]黄慧慧,蔡则祥.中国输入型通货膨胀的特征及机理分析[J].南京审计学院学报,2008(4)：21-24.
[87]黄新飞,舒元.基于VAR模型的FDI与中国通货膨胀的经验分析[J].世界经济,2007(10)：58-66.
[88]姜波克.国际金融新编[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2001：53-57.
[89]李钢.国际对外投资政策与实践[M].北京：中国对外经济贸易出版社,2003：192-195.
[90]李友普,刘思峰.从价格传导机制看我国通货膨胀测度问题[J].价格理论与实践,2005,(2)：65-66.
[91]刘敏,张燕丽,杨延斌.PPI与CPI关系探析[J].统计研究,2005,(2)：24-28.
[92]梁保松.投入产出模型价格变动连锁影响与实例分析[S].河南农业大学学报,2005,39(6)：194-197.
[93]廖明球.投入产出及其扩展分析[M].北京：首都经济贸易大学出版社,2009.
[94]林连连.管理浮动汇率制与世界性通货膨胀[J].世界经济.1987(1)：51-57.
[95]林玉红.输入型通货膨胀传导机制的理论和实证分析[D].2008,上海交通大学.
[96]刘华,卢孔标.进出口贸易与通货膨胀的国际传导——基于中国数据的实证检验[J].金融与经济,2007(10).
[97]刘瑞.通货膨胀与金融政策——以日本两次石油危机时期为中心,日本学刊[J],2009(1)：77-90
[98]刘敏,张燕丽,杨延斌.PPI与CPI关系探析[J].统计研究,2005(2)：24-28.
[99]刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劫.投入产出分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006.
[100]刘起运,程卫平.宏观经济预测与规划[M].北京：中国物价出版社,2001.
[101]刘起运,任泽平.价格影响模型的技术评估与实证研究[J].中国物价,2006(12).
[102]刘荣茂,黎开颜.我国外汇储备对通货膨胀影响的实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2005(1)：49-52.
[103]卢锋.大国经济与输入型通胀论[J].国际金融评论,2008(7-8)：19-23.
[104]欧培彬,周钟山,饶斌.我国货币输入型通货膨胀异常的实证分析[J].企业经济,2009(2)：253-285.
[105]乔海曙,邓婷.我国输入型通货膨胀：形成机理与中国样本[J],宁夏大学学报,2007(3)：112-118.
[106]任泽平,潘文卿,刘起运.原油价格波动对中国物价的影响—基于投入产出价格模型口[J].统计研究.2007(11)：22-28.
[107]伞锋,祝宝良.近期国际市场初期产品价格波动以及对我国的影响[J].中国物价,2004,(9)：26-31.
[108]沈中元.原油价格对中国物价的影响[J].国际石油经济,2004(11).
[109]宋金奇,舒晓惠.PPI与CPI的关系—基于误差修正模型的研究[J].价格理论与实践,2008(10)：50-51.
[110]孙婉洁,藏旭恒.试析外资流入对我国通货膨胀的影响[J].经济研究,1995(9)：60-66.
[111]唐毅亭,白静.目前通货膨胀的性质、特点和趋势分析[J].宏观经济研究,2007(9).
[112]田景惠.国内成品油价格倒挂是诱发通货膨胀的重要影响因素[J].中国石油大学学报,2008(4)：1-5.
[113]田华臣,张宗成.析我国外汇古款对冲策略[J].国际贸易问题,2005(1)：91-95.
[114]佟家栋.开放经济条件下中国通货膨胀原因的探讨[J].经济研究,1996(1)：29-35.
[115]童光荣.动态经济模型分析[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,1999.
[116]王传纶,阎先东.外汇储备与通货膨胀：中央银行的对冲可行性分析[J].财贸经济,1998(3)：3-9.
[117]王健超.外商直接投资通货膨胀效应的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(4)：40-44.
[118]王胜,邹恒甫.新开放经济宏观经济学：发展综述[J].金融研究,2006(1)：178-18.
[119]汪洋.中国的资本流动：1982-2002[J].管理世界,2004(7)：43-52.
[120]小松宪治,刘军生.通货膨胀的多样性和日本的通货膨胀,中国工业经济研究,1993(11)：64-69
[121]肖争艳,安德燕,易娅莉.国际大宗商品价格会影响我国CPI吗——基于VAR模型的分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2009(8)：17-23.
[122]夏海燕,董春,徐彩霞.几种度量通货膨胀率的常用价格指数比较[J].统计与信息论坛,2000,(5)：31-34.
[123]徐伟康.对“消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数：谁带动谁?”一文的质疑[J].经济研究,2010(5).
[124]徐子福,洪昊.外汇管制环境下外资流入管理政策效率研究[J].金融研究,2006(3)：113-123.
[125]阎先东,冯克然.通货膨胀—国际收支角度的考察[J].财贸经济,1997,(4)：51-57.
[126]杨宇,陆奇岸CPI、RPI与PPJ之间关系的实证研究一基于VAR模型的经济计量分析[J].价格理论与实践,2009(5)：57-58.
[127]姚枝仲,张业斌.中国资本项目的变化及其宏观影响[J].世界经济,2001,(8)：21-32.
[128]易纲.中国的货币供求与通货膨胀[J].经济研究,1995(5)：51-58.
[129]尹伯成.从市场经济视角的考察：西方经济学说史[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2005.
[130]余珊萍,钟伟.论通货膨胀和国际收支调节[J].国际经贸探索,1997(6)：12-16.
[131]约翰·伊特韦尔,默里·米尔盖特,彼得·纽曼编.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].经济科学出版社,1996.译自Eatwell, John, Murray Milgate and Peter Newman Edited, The New Palgrave:A Dictionary of Economies, in four volumes, The Macmillan Press Limited,1987.
[132]战勇.要警惕输入型通货膨胀[J].价格理论与实践,1995(7)：23-24.
[133]张斌,徐奇渊.中国的通货膨胀—寻找完整致的解释[J].国际经济评论,2008(11)：31-34.
[134]张成思.外生冲击、货币政策与通胀持久性转变[J].管理世界,,2009(7)：26-34.
[135]张明玉.我国对外开放,通货膨胀与经济增长相关关系的模型检测[J].经济科学,1998(3)：64-72.
[136]张同龙.需求拉动,还是投资推动——基于新一轮通胀周期的实证研究[J].经济管理,2010(1)：9-17.
[137]张哲人,赵鹏,周梅,对输入型通货膨胀压力问题的初步探讨[J].中国经贸导刊,2007(18)：20-12.
[138]郑愚超.近年来中国通货膨胀与外资流入——另‘种可能的解释以及相关政策理论模型[J].经济研究,1996(3)：34-42.
[139]中国经济增长与宏观稳定课题组.外部冲击与中国的通货膨胀[J].经济研究,2008(5)：4-18,
[140]周荣荣.农产品生产价格上涨对CPI传导影响的剖析[J].现代经济探讨.2008(7)：34-36.
[141]周望军,葛建营,王小宁,侯守礼.价格传导问题综述及量化分析[J].北京交通大学学报,2008(2)：48-55.
[142]周晓明,朱光健.资本流动对我国货币供给的影响与对策[J].国际金融研究,2002,(9)：66-71.
[143]张连城,韩蓓.中国经济潜在增长率分析——HP滤波平滑参数的选择及应用.经济与管理研究,2009,(3)：22-28.
[144]张连城,周明生.内外失衡背景下中国宏观经济政策选择.经济研究,2009,(8)：148-55.
[145]张连城,中国未来几年的经济走势与宏观经济政策取向,经济社会体制比较(双月刊),2010(1)：41-45.
[146]张平,戴磊.中国经济增长与“后危机”时代的均衡调整[J],现代经济探讨,2011(1)：5-10
[147]张晓晶.实现稳增长、控通胀与调结构的动态平衡.经济观察,2011,(15)：50-51.
[148]张晓晶,抑制通胀的三大关注点,光明日报,2011-5-25
[149]中国社科院经济所宏观分析课题组.治理通胀需要坚持紧缩性的货币政策.经济学动态,201 1,(8)：47-52.
《国土资源部19日发布《2010中国国土资源公报》》.中华人民共和国中央政府网.2011年10月19日,http://www.gov.cn/irzg/2011-1019coment_1973429.htm
《授权发布：中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》,新华网,2011年03月16日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/polities/2011-03/16c_121193916.htm
《张连城：抑制通胀根本在于避免经济过热》,人民网-人民日报,2011年3月17日,http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/hgds/20110317/06559545922.shtml
《吴敬琏：对“经济过热”的分析与对策》,搜狐则经,2004年1月12日http://business.sohc.com/2004/01/12/26/artiele218412622.shtml
《国际金融学会称今年3000亿元热钱流向中国资本市场》,中国金融网,2010年6月3日http://stock.zgjrw.com/New/201163/Stoce%20cfn/086753342800.shtml
5 Chossudovsky, M., W.Sellekaerts. A Comparison of Optimal and Actual Policies for High Employment and Price Stability under External Inflationary Conditions: The Canadian Experience[J]. Southern Economic Joumal.1974.41(2):206-214.
6 Branson.W.H. Monetaristand Keynesian Models of the Transmissionof Inflation[J].The Ameriean Eeonomie Review.1975,65(2):115-119.
7 Branson, W.H. R.C.Marston.Prieeand Out Put Adjustlnentin Japanese Manufaeturing[Z].Nationa] Bureau of Eeonomic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.1989.
8 Choi, J.J. International Trade and Transmission of Inflation in a General Equilibrium Framework[D].1980.
9 Hume,D. Of the Balance of Trade[J].Essays, Moral, Political and Literary,1752.1:330-341.
10 Krugman, P.R. Geography and Trade[M].MIT Press,1991.
11Mundell, R.A. Monetary Theory:Inflation, Interest and Growth in the World Economy[M].Pacific Palisades,Calif: Good year Publishing Co.,1971.
12 Johnson. H.G. The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory [J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.1972.7(02):1555-1572.
13 Aukrust, O. Inflation in the Open Economy: A Norwegian Model[M].Oslo Statistisk sentralbyra.1977.
14 Forslund. A.,N. Gottfries and A. Westermark. Real and Nominal Wage Adjustment in Open Economies[M]. Munich:CES,2006.
15 Branson. W.H. R.C.Marston. Price and Out Put Adjustlnentin Japanese Manufacturing[Z].National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.1989.
16约翰·伊特韦尔.默里·米尔盖特.彼得·纽曼编.新帕尔格高夫经济学大辞典[M].经济科学出版社,1996.详自Eatwell. John,Murray Milgate and Peter Newman Edited, The New Palgrave:A Dictionary of Economies, in four volumes. The Macmillan Press Limited,1987.
17余珊萍,钟伟.论通货膨胀和国际收支调节[J].国际经贸探索,1997(6)：12-16.
18卢锋.大国经济与输入型通胀论[J].国际金融评论,2008(7-8)：19-23.
19林连连.管理浮动汇率制与世界性通货膨胀[J].世界经济.1987(1)：51-57.
20乔海曙,邓婷.我国输入型通货膨胀：形成机理与中国样本[J],宁夏大学学报,2007(3)：112-118.
21张哲人,赵鹏,周梅.对输入型通货膨胀压力问题的初步探讨[J].中国经贸导刊,2007(18)：20—12.
22邓敏.防治通缩的国际传导[J].经济学家，2001(2)：126-127.
23张平，戴磊.中国经济增长与“后危机”时代的均衡调整[J].现代经济探讨,2011(1)：5-10
24张晓晶,抑制通胀的三大关注点,光明日报,2011-5-25
25张连城,中国未来几年的经济走势与宏观经济政策取向[J],经济社会体制比较(双月刊)，2010(1)：41-45.
2“阎先东,冯克然.通货膨胀—国际收支角度的考察[J].财贸经济,1997,(4)：51-57.
27陈全功.程蹊.我国对外贸易影响国内通货膨胀水平的路径分析[J].国际金融研究.2004(2)：51-56.
28 Leblanc M., M.D. Chinn. Do High oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence From G-5 Countries[J].Business Economies.2004,34:38-48.
29陈克新.原材料价格上涨不会引发严重通货膨胀[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003(6)：28-29
30孙婉洁,藏旭恒.试析外资流入对我国通货膨胀的影响[J].经济研究.1995(9)：60-66.
31范爱军.路颖.引进外资与通货膨胀的关联分析及对策探讨[J].经济研究,1995(9)：67-71.
32郑愚超.近年来中国通货膨胀与外资流入——另—种可能的解释以及相关政策理论模型[J].经济研究,1996(3)：34-42.
33阎先东,冯克然.通货膨胀—国际收支角度的考察[J].财贸经济,1997,(4)：51-57.
34Hume, D. Of the Balance of Trade[J].Essays. Moral. Political and Literary.1752.1:330-341.
39 Hamada, K., M. Sakurai. International Transmission of Stagflation under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J].The Journal of Political Economy.1978,86(5):877-895.
40 Choi, J.J. International Trade and Transmission of Inflation in a General Equilibrium Framework[D].1980.
41 Branson, W.H. R.C.Marston.Prieeand Out Put Adjustlnentin Japanese Manufacturing[Z].Nationa] Bureau of Eeonomic Research Cambridge, Mass.,USA.1989.
42 Goodfriend, M., R. King. The Case for Price Stability[Z].National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.2001.
43 Johnson. H.G. The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.1972,7(02):1555-1572.
44 Aukrust, O. Prim I:A Model of the Price and Income Distribution Mechanism of an Open Economy[J].Review of income and wealth.1970.16(1):51-78.
45 Edgren. G., K. O. Faxen and C. E. Odhner. Wages, Growth and the Distribution of income[J].The Swedish Jourrnal of Economics.1969,71(3):133-160.
49刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劫.投入产出分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社.2006.
55高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2005：126-130.
56《张连城：抑制通胀根本在于避免经济过热》,人民网-人民日报,2011年3月17日http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/hgds/20110317/06559545922.shtml
57张连城,韩蓓.中国经济潜在增长率分析——HP滤波平滑参数的选择及应用.经济与管理研究,2009,(3)：22-28.
59樊纲,张曙光.双轨过渡与“双轨调控”(上)[j].经济研究,1993,(10)
60吴敬琏：对“经济过热”的分析与对策,搜狐财经,http://business.sohu.com/2004/01/12/26/article218412622.shtml
61Mishkin,Frederic."The Causes of Inflation."NBER WorkingPaper,1453,1984.
63小松宪治,刘军生,通货膨胀的多样性和日本的通货膨胀,中国工业经济研究,1993(11)：64-69
64蔡剑波,战后初期日本治理通货膨胀的经验对我国的启示,经济学动态,1995(9)：58-61
65刘瑞,通货膨胀与金融政策——以日本两次石油危机时期为中心,日本学刊[J].2009(1)：77-90
[1]Alessandro Cologne, Matteo Manera. Oil prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper,2005, (9)
[2]Aukrust, O. Inflation in the Open Economy: A Norwegian Model[M].Oslo Statistisk sentralbyra,1977.
[3]Aukrust, O. Prim I:A Model of the Price and Income Distribution Mechanism of an Open Economy [J].Review of income and wealth,1970,16(l):51-78.
[4]Aurikko, E.Exehange Rate Polieyand ImPorted Inflationina Credit Rationing Economy [J]. Empirical Eeonomies.1982,7(1):155-173.
[5]Benigno, G., P. Benigno. Designing Targeting Rules for International Monetary Policy Cooperation[J].Journal of Monetary Economies.2006,53(3):473-506.
[6]Benigno, G., P. Benigno and C. F. E. P. Research. Price Stability as a Nash Equilibriumin Monetary Open Economy Models[M]. Centre for Economic Policy Researeh,2001.
[7]Bernanke, B. S. Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting[C].2007.
[8]Bernanke, B. S., M. Gertler, M. Watson, C.A.Sims and B. M. Friedman. Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of oil Price Shocks[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.1997(1):91-157.
[9]Branson,W.H.Monetaristand Keynesian Models of the Transmissionof Inflation[J].The Ameriean Eeonomie Review.1975,65(2):115-119.
[10]Branson, W.H. R.C.Marston.Prieeand Out Put Adjustlnentin Japanese Manufacturing[Z].Nationa] Bureau of Eeonomic Research Cambridge, Mass.,USA.1989.
[II]Brown, A. J., J. Darby. World Inflation since1950:An Inrernational Comparative Study[M].Cambridge University Press,2010.
[12]Browne, F. X. The International Transmission of Inflation to a Small Open Economy under Fixed Exchange Rates and Highly Interest-Sensitive Capital Flows:An Empirical Analysis[J]. European Economic Review.1984,25:187-212.
[13]Choi, J.J. International Trade and Transmission of Inflation in a General Equilibrium Framework[D].1980.
[14]Choi, J.J. International Trade and Transmission of Inflation[M].Lanham:Maryland and London, University Press of America,1985.
[15]Choi,J.J. M.I.Nadiri. Trade Structure and Transmission of Inflation:Theory and Japanese Experience[J]. NBER Working Paper.1982.
[16]Chossudovsky, M., W.Sellekaerts. A Comparison of Optimal and Actual Policies for High Employment and Price Stability under External Inflationary Conditions:The Canadian Experience[J]. Southern Economic Journal.1974,41(2):206-214.
[17]Dawyer J., Lam R. The two stages of exchange rate pass-through:implications for inflation[J], Australian Economic Papers,1995(34):157-179.
[18]Dell, S. S., R. Lawrence. The Balance of Payments Adjustment Process in Developing Countries[M]. Pergamon Press.1980.
[19]Dornbusch. R. Tariffs and Nontraded Goods[J]. Journal of International Economics.1974,4(2):177-185.
[20]Dornbusch, R. Devaluation, Money, and Nontraded Goods[J].The American Economic Review.1973,63(5):871-880.
[21]Dornbusch, R., S. Fischer and P. A. Samuelson. Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods[J].American Economic Review.1977,67(5):823.
[22]Edgren, G., K.O. Faxen and C. E. Odhner. Wages, Growth and the Distribution of income[J].The Swedish Jourrnal of Economics.1969,71 (3):133-160.
[23]Forslund, A.,N. Gottfries and A. Westermark. Real and Nominal Wage Adjustment in Open Economies[M]. Munich:CES,2006.
[24]Friedman M. The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory[J]. Institute of Economic Occasional Paper33,1970.24-27.
[25]Gisser, M., T. H. Goodwin. Crude oil and the Macroeconomy:Tests of some Popular Notions:Note[J].Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.1986,18(1):95-103.
[26]Goodfriend, M., R. King. The Case for Price Stability[Z].National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA,2001.
[27]Haberler, G. Inflation as a Worldwide Phenomenon:An Overview[J]. Weltwir Tschaft Liches Archiv.1974.110:179-193.
[28]Hamada, K., M. Sakurai. International Transmission of Stagflation under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates[J].The Journal of Political Economy.1978.86(5):877-895.
[29]Hamilton, J. D. oil and the Macroeconomy since World War Ⅱ [J].The Journal of Polltical Economy.1983.91 (2):228-248.
[30]Hume, D. Of the Balance of Trade[J].Essays, Moral, Political and Literary.1752.1:330-341.
[31]Johnson, H.G. Secular Inflation and the International Monetary System[J]. Journal of Money,Credit andBanking.1973,5(1):509-520.
[32]Johnson, H.G. The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory[J]. Joumal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.1972,7(02):1555-1572.
[33]Kara, H. F. Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Pass-through:The Turkish Experience[J]. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.2008,44(6):52-66.
[34]Krugman, P.R. Geography and Trade[M].MIT Press,1991.
[35]Leblanc M., M.D. Chinn. Do High oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence From G-5 Countries[J].Business Economies.2004,34:38-48.
[36]Menon J.The degree and determinants of exchange rate pass-through:market structure non-tariff barriers and multinational corporations[J]. Economic Journal,1996(106):434-440.
[37]Michael R. Darby. International Transmission of Inflation:Its Economics and Its Politics [J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1981,72(2):185-210.
[38]Mishkin, Frederic."The Causes of Inflation." NBER WorkingPaper,1453,1984.
[39]Mundell, R.A. Monetary Theory:Inflation, Interest and Growth in the World Economy[M].Pacific Palisades, Calif.:Good year Publishing Co.,1971.
[40]Nell, K.5. Imported Inflation in South Africa:An Empirical Study[M]. Canterbury:Univ.of Kent, Dep. of Economics,2000.
[41]Nell, K.5. The Structuralist Thory of Imported Inflation:An Application to South Africa[J].Applied Economics.2004,36:1431-1444.
[42]Obstfeld, M., K. Rogoff. Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules [J].Quarterly Journal of Economics.2002(117):503-535.
[43]OCEO observer. The International Transmission of Inflation[J].1973,45(8):27-32.
[44]Otani, I. Inflation in an Open Economy: A Case Study of the Philippines[J]. Staff papers——International Monetary Fund.1975,22(3):750-774.
[45]Oudiz, G., J. Sachs. Macroeconomic Policy Coordination Among the Industrial Economics[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.1984(1):1-76.
[46]Parkin M, Lailder D. Inflation:a survey [J]. Economic Journal,1975, 85(12):741-809.
[47]Phillip Cagan, Imported Inflation 1973-1974 and the Accommodation Issue[J]. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,1980,12(2):1-15.
[48]Rabin, A.A Reexamination of the Acceleration of worldwide Inflation in the Early19705[J].Journal of Maeroeeonomies.1987,9(2):275-285.
[49]R.F Engle, C.W.J. Granger. Long-run Economic Relationships:Readings in Cointegration,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998.
[50]Sheehey, E.J. On the Measurement of Imported Inflation in Developing Countries[J]. Review of worldEconomics.1979,115(1):68-79.
[51]Shinkai, Y. A Model of Imported Inflation[J]. The Journal of Political Economy.1973,81 (4):962-971.
[52]Shinkai, Y. Business Pricing Policies in Japanese Manufacturing Industry[J]. The Journal of Industrial Economics.1974,22(4):255-264.
[53]Weintraub, S. The Price Level in the Open Economy[J]. Kyklos.1977,30(1):22-37.
[54]Woodford, M. Inflation Stabilization and Welfare[J]. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics.2002,2(1):1.
[55]Yang Jian, Guo Hui,Wang Zijun. International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries:A data-determined VAR analysis [J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier,2004,30(10):2681-2700.
[56]Yeldan, E. Conflicting Interests and Structural Inflation:Turkey,1980-1990[J]. The Pakistan Development Review.1993,32(3):303-327.
[57]蔡剑波,战后初期日本治理通货膨胀的经验对我国的启示[J],经济学动态,1995(9)：58-61
[58]曹捍东.基于VAR模型的中国CPI分析[J].统计与决策,2006(14)：76-78.
[59]陈碧琼,何燕.我国外汇储备与CPI波动动态传导机制研究[J].国际经贸探索,2009(5)：69-73.
[60]陈岱孙,厉以宁.国际金融学说史[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1991.
[61]陈国辉,段鹏.我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀[J].经济管理,2007(1)：26-31.
[62]陈克新.原材料价格上涨不会引发严重通货膨胀[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2003(6)：28-29.
[63]陈浪南,何秀红,陈云.人民币汇率波动的价格传导效应研究[J].国际金融研究2008(6)：55-58.
[64]陈全功,程蹊.我国对外贸易影响国内通货膨胀水平的路径分析[J].国际金融研究，2004(2)：51-56.
[65]陈岩.通货膨胀[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2004.
[66]陈愉瑜.全球通货膨胀的理论基础及现状分析[J].当代社科视野,2008(5).
[67]丛阳.试析通货膨胀的国际传递[J].国际金融研究,1994,(6)：26-28.
[68]邓敏.防治通缩的国际传导[J].经济学家,2001(2)：126-127.
[69]戴冠来.当前我国通货膨胀的程度和治理[J].价格理论与实践,2008(7)：16-17.
[70]段丽丽.输入型通货膨胀的传导途径分析[D],天津：天津财经大学,2009：1-33.
[71]范爱军,路颖.引进外资与通货膨胀的关联分析及对策探讨[J].经济研究,1995(9)：67-71.
[72]范从来.菲利普斯曲线与我国现阶段的货币政策目标[J].管理世界,2000(6).
[73]范志勇.成本推动型通货膨胀的含义、甄别和反通货膨胀政策：一个文献研究[J]，世界经济,2010(1)：123-140
[74]高善文.在周期的拐点上：从数据看中国经济的波动[M].北京：中国发展出版社,2006.
[75]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005：126-130.
[76]葛红玲,张景富.我国产业结构调整的思路与对策[J].商业经济与管理,2000,(11)：12-15.
[77]龚六堂.高级宏观经济学[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,2001.
[78]古扎拉蒂.计量经济学(第三版中译本)[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[79]管华雨,张晓田.论发展中国家的货币冲销政策[J].金融研究,2000(7)：101-108.
[80]国家发展改革委外事司供稿.对当前全球通货膨胀形势的分析与思考[J].中国经贸导刊,2008(11).
[81]国家信息中心政策动向课题组.物价周期性震荡上行调控需要“以粮为纲”——当前物价形势分析及调控政策建议[N].中证报，2008,02.13.
[82]国家统计局课题组.我国通货膨胀的趋势分析[J].统计研究,2005,(5)：3-9.
[83]哈继铭.治理通货膨胀要防更要扛——美国经济下滑背景下的中国对策[J].中国金融,2008(9)：37-35.
[84]韩剑.全球产出缺口与中国的通胀变动：基于扩展的菲利普斯曲线研究[J].国际金融研究,2009a(8)：70-76.
[85]贺力平,樊纲,胡嘉妮.消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数：谁带动谁?[J].经济研究,2008(11)：16-26.
[86]黄慧慧,蔡则祥.中国输入型通货膨胀的特征及机理分析[J].南京审计学院学报,2008(4)：21-24.
[87]黄新飞,舒元.基于VAR模型的FDI与中国通货膨胀的经验分析[J].世界经济,2007(10)：58-66.
[88]姜波克.国际金融新编[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2001：53-57.
[89]李钢.国际对外投资政策与实践[M].北京：中国对外经济贸易出版社,2003：192-195.
[90]李友普,刘思峰.从价格传导机制看我国通货膨胀测度问题[J].价格理论与实践,2005,(2)：65-66.
[91]刘敏,张燕丽,杨延斌.PPI与CPI关系探析[J].统计研究,2005,(2)：24-28.
[92]梁保松.投入产出模型价格变动连锁影响与实例分析[S].河南农业大学学报,2005,39(6)：194-197.
[93]廖明球.投入产出及其扩展分析[M].北京：首都经济贸易大学出版社,2009.
[94]林连连.管理浮动汇率制与世界性通货膨胀[J].世界经济.1987(1)：51-57.
[95]林玉红.输入型通货膨胀传导机制的理论和实证分析[D].2008,上海交通大学.
[96]刘华,卢孔标.进出口贸易与通货膨胀的国际传导——基于中国数据的实证检验[J].金融与经济,2007(10).
[97]刘瑞.通货膨胀与金融政策——以日本两次石油危机时期为中心,日本学刊[J],2009(1)：77-90
[98]刘敏,张燕丽,杨延斌.PPI与CPI关系探析[J].统计研究,2005(2)：24-28.
[99]刘起运,陈璋,苏汝劫.投入产出分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006.
[100]刘起运,程卫平.宏观经济预测与规划[M].北京：中国物价出版社,2001.
[101]刘起运,任泽平.价格影响模型的技术评估与实证研究[J].中国物价,2006(12).
[102]刘荣茂,黎开颜.我国外汇储备对通货膨胀影响的实证分析[J].中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2005(1)：49-52.
[103]卢锋.大国经济与输入型通胀论[J].国际金融评论,2008(7-8)：19-23.
[104]欧培彬,周钟山,饶斌.我国货币输入型通货膨胀异常的实证分析[J].企业经济,2009(2)：253-285.
[105]乔海曙,邓婷.我国输入型通货膨胀：形成机理与中国样本[J],宁夏大学学报,2007(3)：112-118.
[106]任泽平,潘文卿,刘起运.原油价格波动对中国物价的影响—基于投入产出价格模型口[J].统计研究.2007(11)：22-28.
[107]伞锋,祝宝良.近期国际市场初期产品价格波动以及对我国的影响[J].中国物价,2004,(9)：26-31.
[108]沈中元.原油价格对中国物价的影响[J].国际石油经济,2004(11).
[109]宋金奇,舒晓惠.PPI与CPI的关系—基于误差修正模型的研究[J].价格理论与实践,2008(10)：50-51.
[110]孙婉洁,藏旭恒.试析外资流入对我国通货膨胀的影响[J].经济研究,1995(9)：60-66.
[111]唐毅亭,白静.目前通货膨胀的性质、特点和趋势分析[J].宏观经济研究,2007(9).
[112]田景惠.国内成品油价格倒挂是诱发通货膨胀的重要影响因素[J].中国石油大学学报,2008(4)：1-5.
[113]田华臣,张宗成.析我国外汇古款对冲策略[J].国际贸易问题,2005(1)：91-95.
[114]佟家栋.开放经济条件下中国通货膨胀原因的探讨[J].经济研究,1996(1)：29-35.
[115]童光荣.动态经济模型分析[M].武汉：武汉大学出版社,1999.
[116]王传纶,阎先东.外汇储备与通货膨胀：中央银行的对冲可行性分析[J].财贸经济,1998(3)：3-9.
[117]王健超.外商直接投资通货膨胀效应的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(4)：40-44.
[118]王胜,邹恒甫.新开放经济宏观经济学：发展综述[J].金融研究,2006(1)：178-18.
[119]汪洋.中国的资本流动：1982-2002[J].管理世界,2004(7)：43-52.
[120]小松宪治,刘军生.通货膨胀的多样性和日本的通货膨胀,中国工业经济研究,1993(11)：64-69
[121]肖争艳,安德燕,易娅莉.国际大宗商品价格会影响我国CPI吗——基于VAR模型的分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2009(8)：17-23.
[122]夏海燕,董春,徐彩霞.几种度量通货膨胀率的常用价格指数比较[J].统计与信息论坛,2000,(5)：31-34.
[123]徐伟康.对“消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数：谁带动谁?”一文的质疑[J].经济研究,2010(5).
[124]徐子福,洪昊.外汇管制环境下外资流入管理政策效率研究[J].金融研究,2006(3)：113-123.
[125]阎先东,冯克然.通货膨胀—国际收支角度的考察[J].财贸经济,1997,(4)：51-57.
[126]杨宇,陆奇岸CPI、RPI与PPJ之间关系的实证研究一基于VAR模型的经济计量分析[J].价格理论与实践,2009(5)：57-58.
[127]姚枝仲,张业斌.中国资本项目的变化及其宏观影响[J].世界经济,2001,(8)：21-32.
[128]易纲.中国的货币供求与通货膨胀[J].经济研究,1995(5)：51-58.
[129]尹伯成.从市场经济视角的考察：西方经济学说史[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2005.
[130]余珊萍,钟伟.论通货膨胀和国际收支调节[J].国际经贸探索,1997(6)：12-16.
[131]约翰·伊特韦尔,默里·米尔盖特,彼得·纽曼编.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].经济科学出版社,1996.译自Eatwell, John, Murray Milgate and Peter Newman Edited, The New Palgrave:A Dictionary of Economies, in four volumes, The Macmillan Press Limited,1987.
[132]战勇.要警惕输入型通货膨胀[J].价格理论与实践,1995(7)：23-24.
[133]张斌,徐奇渊.中国的通货膨胀—寻找完整致的解释[J].国际经济评论,2008(11)：31-34.
[134]张成思.外生冲击、货币政策与通胀持久性转变[J].管理世界,,2009(7)：26-34.
[135]张明玉.我国对外开放,通货膨胀与经济增长相关关系的模型检测[J].经济科学,1998(3)：64-72.
[136]张同龙.需求拉动,还是投资推动——基于新一轮通胀周期的实证研究[J].经济管理,2010(1)：9-17.
[137]张哲人,赵鹏,周梅,对输入型通货膨胀压力问题的初步探讨[J].中国经贸导刊,2007(18)：20-12.
[138]郑愚超.近年来中国通货膨胀与外资流入——另‘种可能的解释以及相关政策理论模型[J].经济研究,1996(3)：34-42.
[139]中国经济增长与宏观稳定课题组.外部冲击与中国的通货膨胀[J].经济研究,2008(5)：4-18,
[140]周荣荣.农产品生产价格上涨对CPI传导影响的剖析[J].现代经济探讨.2008(7)：34-36.
[141]周望军,葛建营,王小宁,侯守礼.价格传导问题综述及量化分析[J].北京交通大学学报,2008(2)：48-55.
[142]周晓明,朱光健.资本流动对我国货币供给的影响与对策[J].国际金融研究,2002,(9)：66-71.
[143]张连城,韩蓓.中国经济潜在增长率分析——HP滤波平滑参数的选择及应用.经济与管理研究,2009,(3)：22-28.
[144]张连城,周明生.内外失衡背景下中国宏观经济政策选择.经济研究,2009,(8)：148-55.
[145]张连城,中国未来几年的经济走势与宏观经济政策取向,经济社会体制比较(双月刊),2010(1)：41-45.
[146]张平,戴磊.中国经济增长与“后危机”时代的均衡调整[J],现代经济探讨,2011(1)：5-10
[147]张晓晶.实现稳增长、控通胀与调结构的动态平衡.经济观察,2011,(15)：50-51.
[148]张晓晶,抑制通胀的三大关注点,光明日报,2011-5-25
[149]中国社科院经济所宏观分析课题组.治理通胀需要坚持紧缩性的货币政策.经济学动态,201 1,(8)：47-52.
《国土资源部19日发布《2010中国国土资源公报》》.中华人民共和国中央政府网.2011年10月19日,http://www.gov.cn/irzg/2011-1019coment_1973429.htm
《授权发布：中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》,新华网,2011年03月16日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/polities/2011-03/16c_121193916.htm
《张连城：抑制通胀根本在于避免经济过热》,人民网-人民日报,2011年3月17日,http://finance.sina.com.cn/review/hgds/20110317/06559545922.shtml
《吴敬琏：对“经济过热”的分析与对策》,搜狐则经,2004年1月12日http://business.sohc.com/2004/01/12/26/artiele218412622.shtml
《国际金融学会称今年3000亿元热钱流向中国资本市场》,中国金融网,2010年6月3日http://stock.zgjrw.com/New/201163/Stoce%20cfn/086753342800.shtml