摘要
通货膨胀的核心问题是其传导机制问题,随着全球经济金融一体化进程的持续不断推进,各国经常项目和资本金融项目的联系日益紧密,全球性通货膨胀通过贸易渠道、货币渠道的传导从而带动一国物价水平上涨,造成国内通货膨胀的外部冲击型特征日益明显。纵观新世纪以来中国的这几轮通胀周期,以CPI为代表的最终消费品价格快速上涨的同时,无不伴随着国际大宗商品价格的暴涨,并且从上涨幅度和时间上的先后顺序来看,外部价格的波动均具有明显的领先性和输入性,这些市场特征的出现,使得理论界和实业界在讨论开放环境下通胀产生的原因时,都无法回避外部价格因素对国内价格体系的冲击这一重要命题。
本文即是研究在开放条件下,中国通货膨胀的传导机制问题。导论部分之后,本文从理论到实际、从定性到定量系统地分析了外部价格冲击与中国通货膨胀的背景、形成与传导机制问题。从本文第二章开始,首先总结了开放环境下通货膨胀的传导机制的理论框架,随后展开了对国际通货膨胀传导机制的一般理论分析,确立了通胀的国际传导机制与传导渠道的理论基础;第三章从全球视角下的宏观基本面演进出发,具体针对国内外经济和金融环境典型事实的描述,多种角度分析了我国与全球经济发展的实际情况,并以此为背景给出了符合我国实际特征的输入型通货膨胀传导机制。并以传统的IS-LM模型为基本框架,结合我国实际情况,通过分析商品市场、货币市场等多个环节,建立了输入型通货膨胀传导机制的理论模型。
随后的第四、五章主要是基于中国事实的实证分析。第四章以投入产出价格模型作为研究方法,实证分析了外部价格的变动对中国各个产业的影响状况,特别的,通过模拟以原油和粮食为代表的大宗商品价格的波动,定量测算了其对国内的直接冲击程度,切实给出了价格传导的具体路径,并量化出大宗商品价格变化对部门乃至总体通胀的影响,为政策制定给出了可求本溯源、有迹可循的清晰思路。
在对我国上中下游价格传导机制的研究中,本文在部门分析的基础上,从产业层次分析价格指数之间的共振与反馈关系,价格指数与产业间的对应是最大的特点,根据最终价格指数间的共振与反馈的量化关系,构建了向量误差修正模型,进一步验证了价格的国内传导机制中存在自上而下的传导和自下而上的价格倒逼机制。不仅理清了价格传导的复杂关系,还可推导出各产业的市场特点以及该特点对价格传导的影响,有助于找出阻碍价格传导的产业节点,利于政策按图索骥。
在政策建议方面,中国面对的外部冲击型通胀压力其更深层次的原因则是经济发展的失衡,包括长期投资过热、流动性过剩以及经常项目顺差等,这些因素时常诱发外部冲击;另外,经济发展失衡表现出来的结果是供需失衡,进而导致价格上涨,在这种条件下,中国的通胀起因不能完全归之于外部成本因素的波动——外部冲击也仅仅是长期经济失衡积累下通胀压力的导火索。因此,在具体治理政策的运用上,除了作为常规性应急手段的货币政策和财政政策以外,更需加强通胀的长期治理措施,运用多种政策工具从根本上改善中国经济长期失衡的局面,为中国经济的长期可持续发展奠定基础。
The core issue of inflation is from its transmission mechanism. With the process of global economic and financial integration advancing, the connection between current account and the capital and financial account of all the countries becomes increasingly close; in this case, the worldwide inflation will drive up the price level of one country through the conduction of trade and monetary channels, highlighting increasingly the external shock impact on domestic inflation. Throughout the inflation cycles of China in the new century, the final consumer price represented by CPI increases rapidly all accompanied by the soaring international commodity prices. According to the growth rates and time, the volatility of the external price presents lead and import characteristics, which make the impact of external price factor on domestic price system unavoidable, when discuss the inflation causes under an open environment.
This paper studies the transmission mechanism of China's inflation under the open condition. After the introduction, it systematically analyzes, from theory to practice, from qualitative to quantitative, the external price shocks and the background and formation of China's inflation as well as the transmission mechanism. In the second chapter, the paper summarizes the theoretical framework of transmission mechanism of the inflation under the opening environment, makes a general analysis of the transmission mechanism of the international inflation and establishes the theoretical basis of international transmission mechanism and transmission channel of the inflation. According to the description of typical facts of the economic and financial environment at home and abroad, starting from the evolution of macro fundamentals in the global perspective, the third chapter analyzes the reality of China and global economy development from different perspectives. And under this background, it offers the transmission mechanism of the imported inflation, which is in line with our actual characteristics. After analyzing commodity markets, currency markets and other aspects, a theoretical model of imported inflation transmission mechanism is established on the framework of traditional IS-LM model as well as combined with China's actual situation,
The chapter Ⅳ and Ⅴ are positive analyses based on the China's reality. In chapter IV, there has empirically analyzed the impact of external price changes on China's industries by input-output price model; particularly through simulating the fluctuations in crude oil and food prices. It makes quantitative estimates of its direct impact on the domestic market and effectively gives the specific transmitting path, and quantifies the impact of commodity price changes on the sectors and even the overall inflation, which offers fundamental and clear thinking for policy making.
In the study of the price transmission mechanism of China's middle and lower reaches, on the basis of analysis of different sectors, the paper makes industrial-level analysis of the resonance and feedback relationship of the price indexes and points the biggest feature of the correspondence between the price index and industry. Depending on the quantitative relationship of the resonance and feedback of price indexes, a vector error correction model is built to further validate that there exists top-down conduction in the price of the domestic transmission mechanism and bottom-up reversed transmission mechanism. This not only clarifies the complex relationship of price transmission, but can also deduce the market characteristics of each industry as well as their impact on price transmission. It helps to identify the industrial nodes that prevent the price transmission and is good for policy making.
The final conclusion is that the deeper reason for China facing inflationary pressure caused by external shock is the long-term imbalance of China's economic development including long-term investment overheating, excess liquidity, and current account surplus, which often induce external shock. In addition, the imbalance of economic development presents the supply-demand unbalance, resulting in price rise. Under this condition, the cause of inflation in China cannot be completely attributed to the fluctuations of the external cost factors---external costs shock is just the fuse of inflationary pressures resulting from the accumulation of long-term economic imbalance. Therefore, when using control policies, it is recommended to strengthen the long-term control and countermeasures against inflation, other than an emergency means of conventional monetary policy, so as to radically improve the situation of China's long-term economic imbalance by using a variety of policy tools and lay the foundation for long-term sustainable development of China's economy.
引文
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