入世后深圳房地产市场发展走向分析
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摘要
深圳是我国培育房地产市场最早的城市，改革开放二十多年来，深圳房地产业取得了巨大的成就，市场经过曲折的发展历程，呈现出持续稳定的发展态势，但随着我国加入WTO，深圳房地产市场能否与国际接轨，继续保持可持续发展，成为政府、企业及各界人士普遍关注的问题。
本文分五个部分对入世后深圳房地产市场走向进行分析，第一部分对深圳房地产市场的发展作了回顾，并阐述了目前深圳房地产市场的发展现状，表明深圳房地产市场，经过一段过热期之后，市场呈理性化发展，市场表现稳定；第二部分分析了加入WTO对深圳房地产市场的影响，从多个角度分析了加入WTO对深圳房地产业的影响程度，认为入世对深圳房地产市场影响不大，机遇大于挑战，发展格局不会受到根本性的冲击而改变；第三部分对未来深圳房地产市场发展作了基本的研判，认为深圳房地产市场能持续稳定发展下去，不会出现泡沫现象；第四部分对深圳房地产市场发展未来走向，从发展要素及理论上作了详细分析，提出了未来发展的七点构想，综合分析认为：深圳房地产市场发展的走向，将保持投资与销售高位运行，商品住宅仍是消费的主体，但市场的增长趋势会放缓，整体市场沿着持续、稳定、健康的路子进一步发展；最后一部分对未来深圳房地产市场的发展提出了八条建设性的措施和对策。
本文的结论：加入WTO会进一步促使深圳的房地产市场与国际市场相对接，继续保持持续稳定的发展格局，房地产业发展方面从数量向智能化、高质量、现代化转变，从而在“质”与“量”上超过“小康”的发展水平。
Shenzhen, the City that developed its real estate market at the earliest period in this country, has acquired great achievement in its real estate industry since China started its open policy more than twenty year, which has experienced a zig-zagged course, but Shenzhen still has kept a sustained development trend. With China's accession to WTO, a realistic issue needs further consideration for local Shenzhen Government, enterprises and people from all walks of life, that is whether or not Shenzhen's real estate industry can imply with international practice and continue to maintain a sustained development in this field.
In this paper, the author has put forwarded an analysis study on Shenzhen's real estate development trend from five spheres. In Part I of this article, the author recalled over the real estate development in the past years and offered a brief introduction to the current real estate development situation in Shenzhen, pointing out that after an overheated development in real estate industry, Shenzhen is now undergoing a more rational and healthy development trend with stable market; hi Part II, the author made an analysis on the influence over Shenzhen's real estate market after China's accession to WTO, analyzing from many fields, to what extend such influence would impose on it. The result of the analysis revealed that the influence on Shenzhen's real estate market is not so serious, and there are more opportunities than challenge and the development mode would on the whole remain unchanged; In Part HI of this article, the fundamental study and analysis was discussed, the author holding that the sustained de
velopment in Shenzhen's real estate industry would continue and no bubble phenomenon would occur; In Part IV, the author provided a detailed analysis over Shenzhen's real estate development trend in the future, the study was based on 7 conceptions by discussed from the point of view on development factors and theory, the comprehensive analysis by the author held that the future real estate market development trend in Shenzhen would on the main maintain a high level both from real estate investment and sales, the buildings for commercial sales would be the lion's share in total real estate sales, but the market increasing trend would be a bit slow than the present. The market would indicate a sustained, stable and healthy development. Lastly, the author has put forwarded eight constructive suggestions and tactics on Shenzhen's real estate development in the future.
In his conclusion, the author stated: With China's accession to WTO, Shenzhen's real estate industry would have a closer connection with international real estate market, and would continue to have a sustained and stable development trend, it would develop from quantity in the past to the state of modernized development on intellectual equipped and high quality. It should surpass the requirements from satisfying " comparatively well-off life standard " in the sense of quantity and quality.
本文分五个部分对入世后深圳房地产市场走向进行分析，第一部分对深圳房地产市场的发展作了回顾，并阐述了目前深圳房地产市场的发展现状，表明深圳房地产市场，经过一段过热期之后，市场呈理性化发展，市场表现稳定；第二部分分析了加入WTO对深圳房地产市场的影响，从多个角度分析了加入WTO对深圳房地产业的影响程度，认为入世对深圳房地产市场影响不大，机遇大于挑战，发展格局不会受到根本性的冲击而改变；第三部分对未来深圳房地产市场发展作了基本的研判，认为深圳房地产市场能持续稳定发展下去，不会出现泡沫现象；第四部分对深圳房地产市场发展未来走向，从发展要素及理论上作了详细分析，提出了未来发展的七点构想，综合分析认为：深圳房地产市场发展的走向，将保持投资与销售高位运行，商品住宅仍是消费的主体，但市场的增长趋势会放缓，整体市场沿着持续、稳定、健康的路子进一步发展；最后一部分对未来深圳房地产市场的发展提出了八条建设性的措施和对策。
本文的结论：加入WTO会进一步促使深圳的房地产市场与国际市场相对接，继续保持持续稳定的发展格局，房地产业发展方面从数量向智能化、高质量、现代化转变，从而在“质”与“量”上超过“小康”的发展水平。
Shenzhen, the City that developed its real estate market at the earliest period in this country, has acquired great achievement in its real estate industry since China started its open policy more than twenty year, which has experienced a zig-zagged course, but Shenzhen still has kept a sustained development trend. With China's accession to WTO, a realistic issue needs further consideration for local Shenzhen Government, enterprises and people from all walks of life, that is whether or not Shenzhen's real estate industry can imply with international practice and continue to maintain a sustained development in this field.
In this paper, the author has put forwarded an analysis study on Shenzhen's real estate development trend from five spheres. In Part I of this article, the author recalled over the real estate development in the past years and offered a brief introduction to the current real estate development situation in Shenzhen, pointing out that after an overheated development in real estate industry, Shenzhen is now undergoing a more rational and healthy development trend with stable market; hi Part II, the author made an analysis on the influence over Shenzhen's real estate market after China's accession to WTO, analyzing from many fields, to what extend such influence would impose on it. The result of the analysis revealed that the influence on Shenzhen's real estate market is not so serious, and there are more opportunities than challenge and the development mode would on the whole remain unchanged; In Part HI of this article, the fundamental study and analysis was discussed, the author holding that the sustained de
velopment in Shenzhen's real estate industry would continue and no bubble phenomenon would occur; In Part IV, the author provided a detailed analysis over Shenzhen's real estate development trend in the future, the study was based on 7 conceptions by discussed from the point of view on development factors and theory, the comprehensive analysis by the author held that the future real estate market development trend in Shenzhen would on the main maintain a high level both from real estate investment and sales, the buildings for commercial sales would be the lion's share in total real estate sales, but the market increasing trend would be a bit slow than the present. The market would indicate a sustained, stable and healthy development. Lastly, the author has put forwarded eight constructive suggestions and tactics on Shenzhen's real estate development in the future.
In his conclusion, the author stated: With China's accession to WTO, Shenzhen's real estate industry would have a closer connection with international real estate market, and would continue to have a sustained and stable development trend, it would develop from quantity in the past to the state of modernized development on intellectual equipped and high quality. It should surpass the requirements from satisfying " comparatively well-off life standard " in the sense of quantity and quality.
引文
[1] 杨沐：《产业政策研究》，上海三联书店。1989年
[2] 王先庆：《产业扩张》，广东经济出版社。1998年
[3] 罗龙昌：《房地产业宏观管理》，经济管理出版社 1999年
[4] 深圳国际房地产公司：《城市地产理论与实践》，测绘出版社1993年
[5] 华宝德：《中国房地产市场研究》，中国人民大学出版社 1994年
[6] 杨继瑞：《中国城市用地制度刨新》，四川大学出版社1994年
[7] 《深圳年鉴》，深圳年鉴出版社 1993—2002卷
[8] 《深圳第三产业》，深圳市计划局编 2000—2001卷
[9] 《深圳房地产年鉴》海天出版社 2000—2002卷
[10] 陈玉敏．房地产业与泡沫经济．不动产纵横，1998．2：56-60
[11] 李学芬．我国房地产业存在的问题及对策．中国投资与建设．1998．6：19-20
[12] 周治平．论房地产市场中的政府调控．当代经济研究，1998．2：39-40
[13] 叶庆历．浅谈当前房地产业形势．不动产纵横，1998．2：62-63
[14] 徐文通．房地产经济学．北京：中国金融出版社，1992
[15] 深圳市统计信息局．深圳统计信息年鉴．1991-1999．中国统计出版社
[16] 深圳市房地产协会．房地产开发时间滞后性研究．中国房地产协会论坛会议论，1999
[17] 张元端．新的经济增长点与房地产业周期波动．住宅与房地产，1996．4：18-19
[18] 左令．周期循环与房地产业的景气预测．住宅与房地产，1996．3：24-26
[19] 黄福来．走进美国房地产(一)．中外房地产导报，1999．15：32-34
[20] 中房指数系统办公室．中国房地产统计年鉴(1999)．北京：中国城市出版社，1999
[21] 韩秉学．通过降地价来降房价．中外房地产导报，1999．2：12-13
[22] 李铃著．中国地产价格与评估．北京，中国人民大学出版社，1999
[23] 周诚．经济综观论及其在土地与房地产经济中的应用．不动产纵横，1999．2：2-9
[24] 古云亮．严格控制商服供给逐步实现供需均衡．深圳市房地产市场分析，1999．1：16-31
[25] 顾云昌．中国城镇住房改革及其对房地产的影响．中外房地产导报，1998．19：22-24
[26] 左令．减少空置、住房存贷与公积金管理．中外房地产导报，1999．10．16-18
[27] Joshua Cooper Ramo.The Shang Hai Bubble.Foreign Policy. 1998:64-75
[28] Michael Hirsh. Bubble Trouble.Newsweek.Vol. 131,May, 1998:46-47
[29] D.N.Gujarati.Basic Econometrics.2ndEd.,McGraw-Hill,Inc., 1995
[30] G.S.Maddala.Introduction Econometrics. 2ndEd.,Masmillan,1992
[31] C.Dougherty. Introduction Econometrics.Oxford University Press, 1992
[32] Elizabeth Razzi.Buylow, RentHigh.Kiplinper's Personal Finance Magazine. Vol.51, May, 1997: 61-65
[33] Seoul Metropolitian Government. Seoul Statistical Yearbook 1997
[34] Carl Sullivan. Real Estateis Next Turf Battle.Bussiness,Vol. 131,Jul, 1998:26-28
[35] Dennis Hevesi.Market's Strong—but for How Long?The New york Time.Dec. 1997,1
[36] Dean Foust.Real Estate and Construction,Business Week.Jan.,1997:132
[37] S.MakridakisandS.C.Wheelwright.Forecasting Methods and Applications.John Wiley Sons, Inc., New-York, 1990
[38] Shirley Wan.The Lowd ownon Real Estate.Maclean's.,Vol. 109,Mar, 1996:62
[39] Gary Mewillams.Watch This Space Race.Business Week.Jan.,1996:44-45
[40] Andrew Willis. Abuying Space. Maclean's. Vol. 108,Aug, 1995:p30-31
[41] Jeffrey Rosen.Low Crimes and Misdemeanors.New Yorker. Vol.74,Nov, 1998:41-47
[42] Watt Walsh.Ol' stay-at-home.Forbes. Vol.155, Apr.,1995:138-140
[43] Jennifer Hunter.When The Bubble Pops.Maclean's. Vol. 111,Apr., 1998:p19
[44] Jieming Zhu.The Effectiveness of Public Interventionin The Property Market.
[45] American Housing Survey, 1989
[2] 王先庆：《产业扩张》，广东经济出版社。1998年
[3] 罗龙昌：《房地产业宏观管理》，经济管理出版社 1999年
[4] 深圳国际房地产公司：《城市地产理论与实践》，测绘出版社1993年
[5] 华宝德：《中国房地产市场研究》，中国人民大学出版社 1994年
[6] 杨继瑞：《中国城市用地制度刨新》，四川大学出版社1994年
[7] 《深圳年鉴》，深圳年鉴出版社 1993—2002卷
[8] 《深圳第三产业》，深圳市计划局编 2000—2001卷
[9] 《深圳房地产年鉴》海天出版社 2000—2002卷
[10] 陈玉敏．房地产业与泡沫经济．不动产纵横，1998．2：56-60
[11] 李学芬．我国房地产业存在的问题及对策．中国投资与建设．1998．6：19-20
[12] 周治平．论房地产市场中的政府调控．当代经济研究，1998．2：39-40
[13] 叶庆历．浅谈当前房地产业形势．不动产纵横，1998．2：62-63
[14] 徐文通．房地产经济学．北京：中国金融出版社，1992
[15] 深圳市统计信息局．深圳统计信息年鉴．1991-1999．中国统计出版社
[16] 深圳市房地产协会．房地产开发时间滞后性研究．中国房地产协会论坛会议论，1999
[17] 张元端．新的经济增长点与房地产业周期波动．住宅与房地产，1996．4：18-19
[18] 左令．周期循环与房地产业的景气预测．住宅与房地产，1996．3：24-26
[19] 黄福来．走进美国房地产(一)．中外房地产导报，1999．15：32-34
[20] 中房指数系统办公室．中国房地产统计年鉴(1999)．北京：中国城市出版社，1999
[21] 韩秉学．通过降地价来降房价．中外房地产导报，1999．2：12-13
[22] 李铃著．中国地产价格与评估．北京，中国人民大学出版社，1999
[23] 周诚．经济综观论及其在土地与房地产经济中的应用．不动产纵横，1999．2：2-9
[24] 古云亮．严格控制商服供给逐步实现供需均衡．深圳市房地产市场分析，1999．1：16-31
[25] 顾云昌．中国城镇住房改革及其对房地产的影响．中外房地产导报，1998．19：22-24
[26] 左令．减少空置、住房存贷与公积金管理．中外房地产导报，1999．10．16-18
[27] Joshua Cooper Ramo.The Shang Hai Bubble.Foreign Policy. 1998:64-75
[28] Michael Hirsh. Bubble Trouble.Newsweek.Vol. 131,May, 1998:46-47
[29] D.N.Gujarati.Basic Econometrics.2ndEd.,McGraw-Hill,Inc., 1995
[30] G.S.Maddala.Introduction Econometrics. 2ndEd.,Masmillan,1992
[31] C.Dougherty. Introduction Econometrics.Oxford University Press, 1992
[32] Elizabeth Razzi.Buylow, RentHigh.Kiplinper's Personal Finance Magazine. Vol.51, May, 1997: 61-65
[33] Seoul Metropolitian Government. Seoul Statistical Yearbook 1997
[34] Carl Sullivan. Real Estateis Next Turf Battle.Bussiness,Vol. 131,Jul, 1998:26-28
[35] Dennis Hevesi.Market's Strong—but for How Long?The New york Time.Dec. 1997,1
[36] Dean Foust.Real Estate and Construction,Business Week.Jan.,1997:132
[37] S.MakridakisandS.C.Wheelwright.Forecasting Methods and Applications.John Wiley Sons, Inc., New-York, 1990
[38] Shirley Wan.The Lowd ownon Real Estate.Maclean's.,Vol. 109,Mar, 1996:62
[39] Gary Mewillams.Watch This Space Race.Business Week.Jan.,1996:44-45
[40] Andrew Willis. Abuying Space. Maclean's. Vol. 108,Aug, 1995:p30-31
[41] Jeffrey Rosen.Low Crimes and Misdemeanors.New Yorker. Vol.74,Nov, 1998:41-47
[42] Watt Walsh.Ol' stay-at-home.Forbes. Vol.155, Apr.,1995:138-140
[43] Jennifer Hunter.When The Bubble Pops.Maclean's. Vol. 111,Apr., 1998:p19
[44] Jieming Zhu.The Effectiveness of Public Interventionin The Property Market.
[45] American Housing Survey, 1989