房地产金融预警系统模型研究
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摘要
房地产金融是伴随着房地产业的发展而迅速的发展起来。近几年来我国房地产业的过热发展引起各方面的关注,恐房地产危机导致金融危机,使金融体系的稳定性遭受极大破坏。本论文的研究目的是指在研究房地产金融市场运行规律的基础上,对房地产金融市场发展的状况进行预警预报,并对其今后走势作出正确的预测与评价,从而尽可能地提前采取监督调控措施,最大限度地促进行业经济的持续良好运行,同时尽量避免那些可以避免的不良态势或事件的发生。
论文从我国房地产市场流程及在各个阶段资金运行的情况着手,在分析房地产业和金融业相互作用机理的基础上,通过分析房地产金融市场运行内外影响因素,运用系统动力学原理建立房地产金融预警模型。然后以南京市为例,确定了模型的基本参数,建立了南京市房地产金融预警模型,并使用Ventana System公司的Vensim PLE plus 32系统动态模拟软件(4.2a版),对南京市1997年到2012年16年间的房地产金融市场发展进行实证模拟,分析主要指标的模拟结果,进行市场监测预警;同时通过政策实验,提出完善房地产金融政策的建议和完善房地产金融政策法规的配套措施。
将系统动力学原理运用到房地产金融预警系统模型中为研究房地产金融预警提供了一种方法性的工具,并通过实证分析证明其有效性,为“房地产金融预警理论”的研究和完善探索一条新的道路。
The real estate finance is the fast developing with the development of real estate. The overheated development of the real estate of our country has aroused the attention from different fields in recent years, intimidate the crisis of the real estate and cause the crisis of the bank, make the stability of the financial system destroyed greatly. The research purpose of this paper refers to on the basis of studying the financial market of the real estate and operating the law , predict prewarning to the state of development of financial market of the real estate, and make correct prediction and appraisal to its tendency in the future, thus take and supervise the regulation and control measure ahead of time as much as possible , promote the running well continuously of trade economy to the maximum extent, try our best to avoid the emergence of those bad situation or incident that can prevent from at the same time.
And the running situation that the fund operate is set about at each stages in the procedure from the market of real estate of our country of the paper, on the basis of analysing the real estate and financial circles interaction mechanism, analysing the financial market of the real estate operates the internal and external influence factors, use the systematic dynamics principle to set up the early warning model of the finance of real estate. Then take Nanjing city as an example , confirm the basic parameter of the model , has set up the early warning model of the finance of real estate of Nanjing, use Vensim PLE plus 32 system dynamic simulation software of Ventana System Company (4.2a edition ), carry on real example simulation to the development of financial market of real estate from 1997 to 2012 of Nanjing, analyse the simulation result of the major indicator, carry on the market and monitor prewarning. At the same time through policy experiment, the supplementary measures of offering the suggestion of perfecting financial policy of the real estate and perfection financial policies and regulations of real estate.
Applying systematic dynamics principle to copies of real estate finance early warning system model offer a kind of method nature tool for studying the finance prewarning of the real estate, and analyse through the real example that proves its validity, explore a new road for research and perfection of " early warning theory of the finance of the real estate ".
论文从我国房地产市场流程及在各个阶段资金运行的情况着手,在分析房地产业和金融业相互作用机理的基础上,通过分析房地产金融市场运行内外影响因素,运用系统动力学原理建立房地产金融预警模型。然后以南京市为例,确定了模型的基本参数,建立了南京市房地产金融预警模型,并使用Ventana System公司的Vensim PLE plus 32系统动态模拟软件(4.2a版),对南京市1997年到2012年16年间的房地产金融市场发展进行实证模拟,分析主要指标的模拟结果,进行市场监测预警;同时通过政策实验,提出完善房地产金融政策的建议和完善房地产金融政策法规的配套措施。
将系统动力学原理运用到房地产金融预警系统模型中为研究房地产金融预警提供了一种方法性的工具,并通过实证分析证明其有效性,为“房地产金融预警理论”的研究和完善探索一条新的道路。
The real estate finance is the fast developing with the development of real estate. The overheated development of the real estate of our country has aroused the attention from different fields in recent years, intimidate the crisis of the real estate and cause the crisis of the bank, make the stability of the financial system destroyed greatly. The research purpose of this paper refers to on the basis of studying the financial market of the real estate and operating the law , predict prewarning to the state of development of financial market of the real estate, and make correct prediction and appraisal to its tendency in the future, thus take and supervise the regulation and control measure ahead of time as much as possible , promote the running well continuously of trade economy to the maximum extent, try our best to avoid the emergence of those bad situation or incident that can prevent from at the same time.
And the running situation that the fund operate is set about at each stages in the procedure from the market of real estate of our country of the paper, on the basis of analysing the real estate and financial circles interaction mechanism, analysing the financial market of the real estate operates the internal and external influence factors, use the systematic dynamics principle to set up the early warning model of the finance of real estate. Then take Nanjing city as an example , confirm the basic parameter of the model , has set up the early warning model of the finance of real estate of Nanjing, use Vensim PLE plus 32 system dynamic simulation software of Ventana System Company (4.2a edition ), carry on real example simulation to the development of financial market of real estate from 1997 to 2012 of Nanjing, analyse the simulation result of the major indicator, carry on the market and monitor prewarning. At the same time through policy experiment, the supplementary measures of offering the suggestion of perfecting financial policy of the real estate and perfection financial policies and regulations of real estate.
Applying systematic dynamics principle to copies of real estate finance early warning system model offer a kind of method nature tool for studying the finance prewarning of the real estate, and analyse through the real example that proves its validity, explore a new road for research and perfection of " early warning theory of the finance of the real estate ".
引文
1 谢经荣,朱勇等箸.地产泡沫与金融危机[M].经济管理出版社,2002
2 宫崎义一箸,路华生译.泡沫经济的经济对策——复合萧条论[M].中国人民大学出版社,2000
3 于宗先,徐滇庆,王金利.泡沫经济与金融危机[M].中国人民大学出版社,2000
4 查理斯·P·金德尔伯箸,朱隽等译.经济过热、经济恐慌及经济崩溃[M].北京大学出版社,2000
5 《国际统计年鉴(1996)》,中国统计出版社,1996
6 王全民主编,王来福,刘秋雁副主编.房地产经济学[M].东北财经大学出版社,2002
7 中国统计年鉴 2001[M].中国统计出版社,2001:P81
8 曹振良等.房地产经济学通论[M].北京大学出版社,2003
9 董寿昆.住宅经济比较研究[M].中国金融出版社,1988
10 华如兴,吴欣. 香港金融业与香港经济的关系[J].清华大学学报,1997
11 梁荣.对当前我国房地产金融与法规的思考[J].财经科学,2004
12 董全.香港房地产与金融的互动效应[J].港澳经济,1996 年第 3 期
13 顾云昌,http://www.soufun.com
14 王其藩编著.系统动力学[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,1994
15 王其藩著.高级系统动力学[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,1995
16 Helbing.K.W.,ReichelM.Selected aspects of development and planning of production and logistic systems.Journal of materials Processing Technology,1998.76(1-3):233-237
17 Samson Tam.An Object-based process planning and scheduling model in a product design environment,Logistics information management,2000,13(4):191-200
18 何秋等.区域物流系统动力学模型的建立与合理性检验[J].交通与计算机,2002,3(106):P30-33
19 丁健,胡乃红等.房地产金融[M].上海译文出版社,2003
20 黄曦.商品房定价策略的静、动态分析[J].广州大学学报(社会科学版),2002(9)
21 曾康霖.必须关注房地产经济的特殊性及其对金融的影响[J].金融研究,2003(9)
22 赵苑达.城市化与区域经济协调发展[M].北京:中国社会科学院出版社,2003
23 黄福来.走遍美国房地产业[N].中外房地产报, 1999(15):P25～29
24 关柯,芦金锋,曾赛星编著.现代住宅经济[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2002
25 贾仁安,丁荣华编著.系统动力学——反馈动态性复杂分析[M].高等教育出版社,2002
26 贾海.商品房空置率计算方法研究[J].统计研究,2003 年第 9 期
27 刘学成.国外房地产周期研究综述[J].中国房地产,2001(4):P9-12
28 中国人民银行研究局课题组.中国房地产发展与金融支持[N].2004.3
29 曹建元.房地产金融[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003
30 梁荣.对改善当前我国房地产金融政策法规的思考[J].市场与消费,2004
31 龙胜平.房地产金融与投资[M]. 北京:高等教育出版社,1998
32 王俊英.基于 SD 的房地产仿真预测及监测预警模型研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].南京:东南大学图书馆,2004
33 中国工商银行湖南分行课题组,1998
34 李晶杰.房地产金融系统风险的分析与控制[D]:[硕士学位论文].武汉:东南大学图书馆,2002
35 王敏.金融风险预警系统的动态信心融合方法出探[J].金融经济,1999.5
36 朴明根.论宏观经济预警系统中的若干问题[J].财经问题研究,1997.9
37 李社环,梁勤星.经济景气观测方法[M].上海:译文出版社,2003.3
38 邵稳重、毛晖.英美日金融预警制度比较[J].南方金融,1997 年 12 期
39 沈联涛.亚洲金融风暴后的国际金融预警制度的研究[J].证券市场导报,1999 年 02 期
40 董小君.美国金融预警制度及启示[J].国际金融研究,2004 年 04 期
2 宫崎义一箸,路华生译.泡沫经济的经济对策——复合萧条论[M].中国人民大学出版社,2000
3 于宗先,徐滇庆,王金利.泡沫经济与金融危机[M].中国人民大学出版社,2000
4 查理斯·P·金德尔伯箸,朱隽等译.经济过热、经济恐慌及经济崩溃[M].北京大学出版社,2000
5 《国际统计年鉴(1996)》,中国统计出版社,1996
6 王全民主编,王来福,刘秋雁副主编.房地产经济学[M].东北财经大学出版社,2002
7 中国统计年鉴 2001[M].中国统计出版社,2001:P81
8 曹振良等.房地产经济学通论[M].北京大学出版社,2003
9 董寿昆.住宅经济比较研究[M].中国金融出版社,1988
10 华如兴,吴欣. 香港金融业与香港经济的关系[J].清华大学学报,1997
11 梁荣.对当前我国房地产金融与法规的思考[J].财经科学,2004
12 董全.香港房地产与金融的互动效应[J].港澳经济,1996 年第 3 期
13 顾云昌,http://www.soufun.com
14 王其藩编著.系统动力学[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,1994
15 王其藩著.高级系统动力学[M]. 北京:清华大学出版社,1995
16 Helbing.K.W.,ReichelM.Selected aspects of development and planning of production and logistic systems.Journal of materials Processing Technology,1998.76(1-3):233-237
17 Samson Tam.An Object-based process planning and scheduling model in a product design environment,Logistics information management,2000,13(4):191-200
18 何秋等.区域物流系统动力学模型的建立与合理性检验[J].交通与计算机,2002,3(106):P30-33
19 丁健,胡乃红等.房地产金融[M].上海译文出版社,2003
20 黄曦.商品房定价策略的静、动态分析[J].广州大学学报(社会科学版),2002(9)
21 曾康霖.必须关注房地产经济的特殊性及其对金融的影响[J].金融研究,2003(9)
22 赵苑达.城市化与区域经济协调发展[M].北京:中国社会科学院出版社,2003
23 黄福来.走遍美国房地产业[N].中外房地产报, 1999(15):P25～29
24 关柯,芦金锋,曾赛星编著.现代住宅经济[M].中国建筑工业出版社,2002
25 贾仁安,丁荣华编著.系统动力学——反馈动态性复杂分析[M].高等教育出版社,2002
26 贾海.商品房空置率计算方法研究[J].统计研究,2003 年第 9 期
27 刘学成.国外房地产周期研究综述[J].中国房地产,2001(4):P9-12
28 中国人民银行研究局课题组.中国房地产发展与金融支持[N].2004.3
29 曹建元.房地产金融[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003
30 梁荣.对改善当前我国房地产金融政策法规的思考[J].市场与消费,2004
31 龙胜平.房地产金融与投资[M]. 北京:高等教育出版社,1998
32 王俊英.基于 SD 的房地产仿真预测及监测预警模型研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].南京:东南大学图书馆,2004
33 中国工商银行湖南分行课题组,1998
34 李晶杰.房地产金融系统风险的分析与控制[D]:[硕士学位论文].武汉:东南大学图书馆,2002
35 王敏.金融风险预警系统的动态信心融合方法出探[J].金融经济,1999.5
36 朴明根.论宏观经济预警系统中的若干问题[J].财经问题研究,1997.9
37 李社环,梁勤星.经济景气观测方法[M].上海:译文出版社,2003.3
38 邵稳重、毛晖.英美日金融预警制度比较[J].南方金融,1997 年 12 期
39 沈联涛.亚洲金融风暴后的国际金融预警制度的研究[J].证券市场导报,1999 年 02 期
40 董小君.美国金融预警制度及启示[J].国际金融研究,2004 年 04 期