黑龙江省居民消费增长的实证研究
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摘要
消费、投资和净出口是拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”。改革开放以来,我国经济在三驾马车的拉动下快速增长。但是从1990年代中期开始,居民消费不振、消费率不断下降,使消费对经济增长的作用明显减弱。因此,从“十一五”规划开始,我国就特别强调要调整投资和消费的关系,积极扩大内需,增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。“十二五”规划进一步提出,“建立扩大消费需求的长效机制。把扩大消费需求作为扩大内需的战略重点,增强居民消费能力,改善居民消费预期,促进消费结构升级,进一步释放城乡居民消费潜力。”因此,未来一段时期,促进消费快速增长,发挥消费对经济增长的拉动作用将成为实现经济长期稳定增长的艰巨任务和重要目标。
黑龙江省作为我国的老工业基地,长期以来一直重投资、轻消费,造成居民消费持续低迷,对经济增长的拉动作用不足。近年来,黑龙江省委省政府抓住国家振兴东北的有利时机,制定了一系列的政策措施来调结构、惠民生、启动居民消费,但是居民消费却始终启而不动,成为阻碍黑龙江经济发展的亟待解决的问题。
以黑龙江省居民消费增长的实证研究为题,在系统梳理消费理论和定量研究方法的基础上,把促进经济良性循环和提高居民的福祉相结合,通过对改革开放以来黑龙江省城乡居民消费水平与消费结构的演变过程的分析,寻找居民消费支出增长及消费结构优化的规律,发掘制约居民消费增长的症结,为黑龙江省以及与黑龙江省经济发展特征相近的地区制定社会经济发展政策,实现由投资导向型向消费导向型经济的转变,提供参考和借鉴。
论文运用理论分析、描述统计和计量模型分析法,把静态分析和动态分析相结合,深入分析黑龙江省居民消费水平和消费结构的演变历程；用协整方法研究影响黑龙江省城乡居民消费支出的主要因素,并对黑龙江省城乡居民的消费支出进行多因素综合分析；同时运用分位数回归模型研究不同分位水平上城乡居民消费增长率的变动特征；采用Panel Data模型分析黑龙江省居民消费结构的变化。全文沿着理论准备、方法论准备、历史及现状考察、实证分析、得出结论的逻辑思路展开,研究内容分为五个部分,共八章。
第一部分即第1章绪论。主要内容包括选题背景和意义,消费增长的概念辨析,澄清消费研究中对消费增长概念的内涵及外延的模糊认识,并对文中所使用的测度消费增长的指标进行统计界定,介绍论文的研究方法和逻辑框架,以及论文的创新点和不足。
第二部分是理论和方法准备,包括第2章和第3章。
第2章国内外消费理论研究述评。首先按照历史发展脉络对国外消费理论进行系统梳理,尤其是对卢卡斯批判以来发展起来的基于理性预期的消费理论,主要包括随机游走假说、预防性储蓄理论、流动性约束理论、缓冲存货理论和λ假说,以及行为消费理论关于消费增长问题的研究进行系统评述。然后对国内有关居民消费问题的研究,特别是1990年代以来中国学者关于消费增长理论的研究做详细的评价,为后面的经验分析奠定坚实的理论基础。
第3章居民消费增长研究的主要方法述评。详细评价计量分析方法中的协整和误差修正模型、面板数据分析法、分位数回归和均值结构分析等方法的优势与不足,进而确定本文定量研究的主要方法,为后面的实证研究做充分的方法论准备。
第三部分是消费增长的历史和现状描述,包括第4章和第5章。
第4章黑龙江省居民消费水平增长的历史与现实考察。重点研究城乡居民消费水平、居民消费率以及边际消费倾向的历史、现状及发展变化规律,并且分别与全国平均水平做对比。
第5章黑龙江省居民消费结构的演变特征分析。首先分析中国城乡居民消费结构的演变特征。然后分析城乡居民消费结构差异,并同全国的平均水平对比,分析黑龙江省城乡居民消费结构存在的差距,确定黑龙江省在全国所处的位置。认清历史分析现状是进行影响因素分析和实证建模的基础。
第四部分是建立消费增长模型并提出促进消费增长的对策,包括第6章和第7章。
第6章黑龙江省居民消费增长模型的建立。首先,分别从经济与社会的角度,分析居民收入、消费预期、预防性储蓄、流动性约束、利率、价格、产业结构等经济因素,以及制度变革、消费环境、消费心理等社会因素的影响,并采用协整理论和误差修正模型,对影响消费增长的经济因素做实证分析检验,构建一个反映消费变动的综合模型,确定影响居民消费变动的主要因素及影响程度。然后,运用分位数回归模型分析了不同分位水平上城乡居民消费增长的变动特征。最后,利用Panel Data模型分析黑龙江省城乡居民的消费结构。
第7章基于福利视角的黑龙江省居民消费增长的对策分析。从提升社会福利的角度构建黑龙江省的宏观系统模型,研究黑龙江省宏观经济系统中存在的问题,提出通过减少税收,降低企业准入和加深市场化的角度提升社会福利,从而促进居民消费增长的对策建议。
第五部分即第8章结论与展望。这一章是对全文的总结,依据全文的理论与实证分析得出结论,讨论有待解决的问题,提出进一步深入研究的方向。
本文的创新之处主要有：第一,对消费增长概念的辨析。虽然国内外有关消费增长研究的文献很多,但是在我所见的大量文献中,尽管有很多文献中都提到消费增长,甚至是以消费增长为题的研究,但是对消费增长的概念进行界定的文献却少之又少,关于消费增长的内涵及外延的概念很模糊,理论界也没有形成统一的认识。本文清晰地界定消费增长的内涵和外延,并从可操作的角度对消费增长的测度指标做了统计界定。第二,研究视角的独到性。由于消费是拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,因此国内外对消费问题的研究文献很多,但多是或为宏观研究,或强调微观基础。从一个多维视角,将其置于更大的区域宏观经济环境中,并从更具体的城乡子系统中,既研究本省的城乡差异,也研究黑龙江省与全国平均水平的差距,并把居民家庭的人均消费支出与宏观居民消费相联系,进行三个层面的关联性研究,这是已有文献中没有的。第三,研究理念的先进性。将系统的和谐及整个社会的福利提升作为参照系,构建黑龙江省宏观经济系统联立模型,把研究内容从人均消费支出拓展到宏观居民消费,从提升社会福利的角度,提出消费增长的对策,这与传统的以经济总量与速度的增长为参照目标相比,是一次系统理念上的进步,也填补了该方面研究的空白。第四,研究方法的新意。首先从单因素入手,分别研究各种经济和社会因素对城乡居民消费性支出的影响,再综合分析,构建居民消费增长的多因素综合模型,通过分段引入虚拟变量分析制度变迁因素对城乡居民消费的影响。
论文的不足之处在于：第一,由于可得数据的客观局限性,使论文研究内容的深度和研究方法的应用受到限制。由于缺乏居民消费支出的个体数据,无法进行个体分层的差异分析。由于黑龙江省统计年鉴中,农村住户调查数据是从2007年以后才有按收入等级分组的数据,使得面板数据时间太短,虽然利用现有数据的研究结果通过了检验,但无疑会影响结论的准确性和可靠性。第二,仅仅以全国的平均水平为参照,来研究黑龙江省居民消费水平和消费结构演变,如果能选取相近收入水平和相似发展阶段的地区进行比较,更进一步,如果能与发达国家在同等收入水平的消费阶段做比较,结论会更有说服力,也更具现实意义。第三,主观上,受个人知识储备的限制,一些近年来兴起的研究消费问题比较有效的方法,如半参数回归模型和均值结构变化模型等,但由于Eviews软件尚无这些分析功能,而本人又不熟悉复杂编程,因此,没有把这两种方法用于实证研究,这也是我下一步要继续完成的研究。
Consumption, investment and net exports have been recognised as the "three pillars" of economic growth. Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, China has witnessed a rapid economic development underpinned by its three pillars. However, the effect of consumption on economic growth has declined considerably since the mid-1990s evidenced by a continuous drop in both household consumption and the consumption rate. Therefore, China's eleventh Five-Year Plan was formulated to enhance the effect of consumption by promoting domestic consumption and balancing the relationship between investment and consumption. The twelfth Five-Year Plan has further highlighted that the central theme of the new plan is to expand consumer demand, especially the domestic consumption, and to improve the public's purchasing power and consumption expectations. In addition, the structure of consumption should be upgraded to further stimulate household consumption. Hence, the primary focus in the next stage is to promote consumption and to boost its driven effect on economy growth.
As a traditional industrial base in China, Heilongjiang province is characterised by its investment-oriented policy, which undermines the household consumption and eventually the regional economy. Although the government of Heilongjiang province has taken initials aiming at improving the economic structure and the living standard of its citizens, the efforts are yet to exercise an effective recovery to the household consumption. This issue has therefore become the top priority of developing the economic policy in Heilongjiang.
This research conducts an empirical study to investigate the growth of household consumption in Heilongjiang province. Based on a systematic review of consumption theories and quantitative research methods, this study analyses the evolution of household consumption and its structure in Heilongjiang. The research objectives are to identify the patterns of the growth of household consumption and to offer solutions to improving the consumption structure with the consideration of both economic growth and social welfare. By exploring the barriers to economic growth, this study provides insights into the policy development in promoting the transformation from an investment-driven economy to one fuelled by consumption. The research results would benefit stakeholders in Heilongjiang province and regions sharing similar economic characteristics.
This study examines the household consumption and its structure in Heilongjiang province by implementing theoretical analysis, descriptive analysis and econometric modelling methods. Both static and dynamic analyses are incorporated into the research. In particular, factors influencing consumptions are tested through cointegration approach and multiple factor analysis. Then, analyse the characters of consumption growth at different quantiles through quantile regression model. Furthermore, the evolution of the consumption structure in Heilongjiang is investigated by using panel data models. The dissertation consists of five parts and eight chapters presenting the theoretical basis, methodologies, historical and current developments, empirical analyses and conclusions.
Part One, which comprises of Chapter1, presents an introduction to the dissertation. The research background and objectives are introduced. Additionally, it provides a clear understanding of the connotation and denotation of consumption growth. After defining the measurements of consumption growth, this chapter introduces the research methods, logical framework, contributions and limitations.
Part Two covers Chapters2and3which include literature review and methodology.
Chapter2reviews the literature of consumption theories, with a focus on those developed after the Lucas critique. Following a historical path, the random walk hypothesis, precautionary saving theory, liquidity constraint theory, buffer stock saving theory,λ hypothesis, and behaviour theories relevant to consumption growth are evaluated in a systematic manner. This chapter also reviews the research on domestic consumption in China, especially the studies on consumption growth since1990s.
Chapter3introduces the methodology. This chapter critically discusses the advantages and limitations of major econometric methods used in the previous literature, such as cointegration and error correction models, panel data analysis, quantile regression, and mean and structural analysis. The detailed review of methodology guides the method development of the empirical study.
Comprising of Chapters4and5, Part Three introduces the historical and current developments of consumption growth.
Chapter4presents the historical and current developments of the growth of household consumption in Heilongjiang province. The evolution and trend of the consumption level, consumption rate, and marginal consumption propensities are discussed and compared with the national average.
Chapter5examines the evolution of consumption structure in Heilongjiang. Firstly, the dynamic patterns of consumption structure in China are identified. Additionally, contrasts on consumption structure are conducted between urban and rural residents in Heilongjiang. The urban-rural difference is then compared with the national level to locate the provincial ranking of Heilongjiang. The analysis of the evolution and trend serves as a basis of the following empirical research.
Part Four develops a consumption growth model and offers solutions to promote consumption. Chapters6and7are included.
Chapter6proposes the household consumption growth model in Heilongjiang province. From a socio-economic perspective, this chapter first analyses the impacts of a number of factors such as household income, consumption expectations, precautionary savings, liquid constraints, interest rates, prices, industrial structures, policy change, consumption environment, and consumption psychology. By employing the cointegration theory and error correction model, it then tests the effects of economic factors on household consumption to build a model that reflects the consumption change and measures the influences of major factors. Then, analyse the characters of consumption growth at different quantiles through quantile regression model.This chapter concludes with an analysis on urban-rural differences of the consumption structure using panel data.
Chapter7provides a perspective on the welfare and explores the solutions to promote household consumption in Heilongjiang. A macro model is developed from the perspective of the welfare to pinpoint the issues existing in the provincial economy. Drawn from the analysis, it is suggested that the social welfare, and eventually household consumption, can be improved by reducing tax rates, lowering the threshold for market entry, and promoting a market-oriented economy.
Part Five, which is Chapter8, concludes the dissertation. Based on an overview of the theories and empirical results, this chapter discusses the unsolved issues and the future research direction.
The contributions of this study are four-fold. Firstly, this study provides a conceptual definition of consumption growth. Consumption growth has been extensively studied in the previous literature, yet the concept has not been cleared defined. No agreement on the connotation and denotation of consumption growth has been reached. This study bridges this gap by precisely defining the connotation and denotation of consumption growth, and setting up its statistical measurements. Secondly, a unique perspective is provided. As one of the three pillars of economic growth, the research on consumption is enormous. However, previous studies have been mainly focusing on either macro or micro levels. This research contributes to the literature from a multidimensional perspective by incorporating the micro system into the macro economy. Contrasts are conducted both within the province and between the provincial and national levels. In addition, household expenditure per capita is associated with macro household consumption. The three-level association would further contribute to the understanding of consumption. Thirdly, this study proposes an innovative research idea. Recommendations are drawn from the proposed system that incorporates social welfare as a benchmark and connects both macro and micro levels. Comparing with the conventional economic standard, this study brings the consumption research to the next level. Fourthly, the creative research methods make this study stand out from the literature. Starting from a single factor analysis, this study examines the effects of each socio-economic factor on household consumption, based on which a multi-factor model is developed, introducing dummy variables at different stages to gauge the influence of policy change on household consumption.
On the other hand, limitations of this study must be admitted. First of all, the unavailability of empirical data limits the depth and methods of this study. As the data of residents' individual expenditures are unavailable, it is not feasible to compare the differences between individuals or clusters. For instance, as the statistics of income groups have only been available since2007, the constructed panel data is with a relatively short time span. Although the tests yield a favourable result, the accuracy and reliability are not doubt-free. Second, only the national average levels are used as the benchmark to compare with household consumption and its structure in Heilongjiang. The analyses would have benefitted from a contrast to regions with similar levels of income and development, or even a comparison with developed countries at a comparable development stage. Third, the author's knowledge and skills restrain the use of several newly developed methods such as partial linear model or semiparametric regression model and mean structure changes model. However, these approaches are not adopted due to the limitations of the Eviews programme and the author's programming skills. It is therefore to be placed in the author's future research agenda.
黑龙江省作为我国的老工业基地,长期以来一直重投资、轻消费,造成居民消费持续低迷,对经济增长的拉动作用不足。近年来,黑龙江省委省政府抓住国家振兴东北的有利时机,制定了一系列的政策措施来调结构、惠民生、启动居民消费,但是居民消费却始终启而不动,成为阻碍黑龙江经济发展的亟待解决的问题。
以黑龙江省居民消费增长的实证研究为题,在系统梳理消费理论和定量研究方法的基础上,把促进经济良性循环和提高居民的福祉相结合,通过对改革开放以来黑龙江省城乡居民消费水平与消费结构的演变过程的分析,寻找居民消费支出增长及消费结构优化的规律,发掘制约居民消费增长的症结,为黑龙江省以及与黑龙江省经济发展特征相近的地区制定社会经济发展政策,实现由投资导向型向消费导向型经济的转变,提供参考和借鉴。
论文运用理论分析、描述统计和计量模型分析法,把静态分析和动态分析相结合,深入分析黑龙江省居民消费水平和消费结构的演变历程；用协整方法研究影响黑龙江省城乡居民消费支出的主要因素,并对黑龙江省城乡居民的消费支出进行多因素综合分析；同时运用分位数回归模型研究不同分位水平上城乡居民消费增长率的变动特征；采用Panel Data模型分析黑龙江省居民消费结构的变化。全文沿着理论准备、方法论准备、历史及现状考察、实证分析、得出结论的逻辑思路展开,研究内容分为五个部分,共八章。
第一部分即第1章绪论。主要内容包括选题背景和意义,消费增长的概念辨析,澄清消费研究中对消费增长概念的内涵及外延的模糊认识,并对文中所使用的测度消费增长的指标进行统计界定,介绍论文的研究方法和逻辑框架,以及论文的创新点和不足。
第二部分是理论和方法准备,包括第2章和第3章。
第2章国内外消费理论研究述评。首先按照历史发展脉络对国外消费理论进行系统梳理,尤其是对卢卡斯批判以来发展起来的基于理性预期的消费理论,主要包括随机游走假说、预防性储蓄理论、流动性约束理论、缓冲存货理论和λ假说,以及行为消费理论关于消费增长问题的研究进行系统评述。然后对国内有关居民消费问题的研究,特别是1990年代以来中国学者关于消费增长理论的研究做详细的评价,为后面的经验分析奠定坚实的理论基础。
第3章居民消费增长研究的主要方法述评。详细评价计量分析方法中的协整和误差修正模型、面板数据分析法、分位数回归和均值结构分析等方法的优势与不足,进而确定本文定量研究的主要方法,为后面的实证研究做充分的方法论准备。
第三部分是消费增长的历史和现状描述,包括第4章和第5章。
第4章黑龙江省居民消费水平增长的历史与现实考察。重点研究城乡居民消费水平、居民消费率以及边际消费倾向的历史、现状及发展变化规律,并且分别与全国平均水平做对比。
第5章黑龙江省居民消费结构的演变特征分析。首先分析中国城乡居民消费结构的演变特征。然后分析城乡居民消费结构差异,并同全国的平均水平对比,分析黑龙江省城乡居民消费结构存在的差距,确定黑龙江省在全国所处的位置。认清历史分析现状是进行影响因素分析和实证建模的基础。
第四部分是建立消费增长模型并提出促进消费增长的对策,包括第6章和第7章。
第6章黑龙江省居民消费增长模型的建立。首先,分别从经济与社会的角度,分析居民收入、消费预期、预防性储蓄、流动性约束、利率、价格、产业结构等经济因素,以及制度变革、消费环境、消费心理等社会因素的影响,并采用协整理论和误差修正模型,对影响消费增长的经济因素做实证分析检验,构建一个反映消费变动的综合模型,确定影响居民消费变动的主要因素及影响程度。然后,运用分位数回归模型分析了不同分位水平上城乡居民消费增长的变动特征。最后,利用Panel Data模型分析黑龙江省城乡居民的消费结构。
第7章基于福利视角的黑龙江省居民消费增长的对策分析。从提升社会福利的角度构建黑龙江省的宏观系统模型,研究黑龙江省宏观经济系统中存在的问题,提出通过减少税收,降低企业准入和加深市场化的角度提升社会福利,从而促进居民消费增长的对策建议。
第五部分即第8章结论与展望。这一章是对全文的总结,依据全文的理论与实证分析得出结论,讨论有待解决的问题,提出进一步深入研究的方向。
本文的创新之处主要有：第一,对消费增长概念的辨析。虽然国内外有关消费增长研究的文献很多,但是在我所见的大量文献中,尽管有很多文献中都提到消费增长,甚至是以消费增长为题的研究,但是对消费增长的概念进行界定的文献却少之又少,关于消费增长的内涵及外延的概念很模糊,理论界也没有形成统一的认识。本文清晰地界定消费增长的内涵和外延,并从可操作的角度对消费增长的测度指标做了统计界定。第二,研究视角的独到性。由于消费是拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,因此国内外对消费问题的研究文献很多,但多是或为宏观研究,或强调微观基础。从一个多维视角,将其置于更大的区域宏观经济环境中,并从更具体的城乡子系统中,既研究本省的城乡差异,也研究黑龙江省与全国平均水平的差距,并把居民家庭的人均消费支出与宏观居民消费相联系,进行三个层面的关联性研究,这是已有文献中没有的。第三,研究理念的先进性。将系统的和谐及整个社会的福利提升作为参照系,构建黑龙江省宏观经济系统联立模型,把研究内容从人均消费支出拓展到宏观居民消费,从提升社会福利的角度,提出消费增长的对策,这与传统的以经济总量与速度的增长为参照目标相比,是一次系统理念上的进步,也填补了该方面研究的空白。第四,研究方法的新意。首先从单因素入手,分别研究各种经济和社会因素对城乡居民消费性支出的影响,再综合分析,构建居民消费增长的多因素综合模型,通过分段引入虚拟变量分析制度变迁因素对城乡居民消费的影响。
论文的不足之处在于：第一,由于可得数据的客观局限性,使论文研究内容的深度和研究方法的应用受到限制。由于缺乏居民消费支出的个体数据,无法进行个体分层的差异分析。由于黑龙江省统计年鉴中,农村住户调查数据是从2007年以后才有按收入等级分组的数据,使得面板数据时间太短,虽然利用现有数据的研究结果通过了检验,但无疑会影响结论的准确性和可靠性。第二,仅仅以全国的平均水平为参照,来研究黑龙江省居民消费水平和消费结构演变,如果能选取相近收入水平和相似发展阶段的地区进行比较,更进一步,如果能与发达国家在同等收入水平的消费阶段做比较,结论会更有说服力,也更具现实意义。第三,主观上,受个人知识储备的限制,一些近年来兴起的研究消费问题比较有效的方法,如半参数回归模型和均值结构变化模型等,但由于Eviews软件尚无这些分析功能,而本人又不熟悉复杂编程,因此,没有把这两种方法用于实证研究,这也是我下一步要继续完成的研究。
Consumption, investment and net exports have been recognised as the "three pillars" of economic growth. Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, China has witnessed a rapid economic development underpinned by its three pillars. However, the effect of consumption on economic growth has declined considerably since the mid-1990s evidenced by a continuous drop in both household consumption and the consumption rate. Therefore, China's eleventh Five-Year Plan was formulated to enhance the effect of consumption by promoting domestic consumption and balancing the relationship between investment and consumption. The twelfth Five-Year Plan has further highlighted that the central theme of the new plan is to expand consumer demand, especially the domestic consumption, and to improve the public's purchasing power and consumption expectations. In addition, the structure of consumption should be upgraded to further stimulate household consumption. Hence, the primary focus in the next stage is to promote consumption and to boost its driven effect on economy growth.
As a traditional industrial base in China, Heilongjiang province is characterised by its investment-oriented policy, which undermines the household consumption and eventually the regional economy. Although the government of Heilongjiang province has taken initials aiming at improving the economic structure and the living standard of its citizens, the efforts are yet to exercise an effective recovery to the household consumption. This issue has therefore become the top priority of developing the economic policy in Heilongjiang.
This research conducts an empirical study to investigate the growth of household consumption in Heilongjiang province. Based on a systematic review of consumption theories and quantitative research methods, this study analyses the evolution of household consumption and its structure in Heilongjiang. The research objectives are to identify the patterns of the growth of household consumption and to offer solutions to improving the consumption structure with the consideration of both economic growth and social welfare. By exploring the barriers to economic growth, this study provides insights into the policy development in promoting the transformation from an investment-driven economy to one fuelled by consumption. The research results would benefit stakeholders in Heilongjiang province and regions sharing similar economic characteristics.
This study examines the household consumption and its structure in Heilongjiang province by implementing theoretical analysis, descriptive analysis and econometric modelling methods. Both static and dynamic analyses are incorporated into the research. In particular, factors influencing consumptions are tested through cointegration approach and multiple factor analysis. Then, analyse the characters of consumption growth at different quantiles through quantile regression model. Furthermore, the evolution of the consumption structure in Heilongjiang is investigated by using panel data models. The dissertation consists of five parts and eight chapters presenting the theoretical basis, methodologies, historical and current developments, empirical analyses and conclusions.
Part One, which comprises of Chapter1, presents an introduction to the dissertation. The research background and objectives are introduced. Additionally, it provides a clear understanding of the connotation and denotation of consumption growth. After defining the measurements of consumption growth, this chapter introduces the research methods, logical framework, contributions and limitations.
Part Two covers Chapters2and3which include literature review and methodology.
Chapter2reviews the literature of consumption theories, with a focus on those developed after the Lucas critique. Following a historical path, the random walk hypothesis, precautionary saving theory, liquidity constraint theory, buffer stock saving theory,λ hypothesis, and behaviour theories relevant to consumption growth are evaluated in a systematic manner. This chapter also reviews the research on domestic consumption in China, especially the studies on consumption growth since1990s.
Chapter3introduces the methodology. This chapter critically discusses the advantages and limitations of major econometric methods used in the previous literature, such as cointegration and error correction models, panel data analysis, quantile regression, and mean and structural analysis. The detailed review of methodology guides the method development of the empirical study.
Comprising of Chapters4and5, Part Three introduces the historical and current developments of consumption growth.
Chapter4presents the historical and current developments of the growth of household consumption in Heilongjiang province. The evolution and trend of the consumption level, consumption rate, and marginal consumption propensities are discussed and compared with the national average.
Chapter5examines the evolution of consumption structure in Heilongjiang. Firstly, the dynamic patterns of consumption structure in China are identified. Additionally, contrasts on consumption structure are conducted between urban and rural residents in Heilongjiang. The urban-rural difference is then compared with the national level to locate the provincial ranking of Heilongjiang. The analysis of the evolution and trend serves as a basis of the following empirical research.
Part Four develops a consumption growth model and offers solutions to promote consumption. Chapters6and7are included.
Chapter6proposes the household consumption growth model in Heilongjiang province. From a socio-economic perspective, this chapter first analyses the impacts of a number of factors such as household income, consumption expectations, precautionary savings, liquid constraints, interest rates, prices, industrial structures, policy change, consumption environment, and consumption psychology. By employing the cointegration theory and error correction model, it then tests the effects of economic factors on household consumption to build a model that reflects the consumption change and measures the influences of major factors. Then, analyse the characters of consumption growth at different quantiles through quantile regression model.This chapter concludes with an analysis on urban-rural differences of the consumption structure using panel data.
Chapter7provides a perspective on the welfare and explores the solutions to promote household consumption in Heilongjiang. A macro model is developed from the perspective of the welfare to pinpoint the issues existing in the provincial economy. Drawn from the analysis, it is suggested that the social welfare, and eventually household consumption, can be improved by reducing tax rates, lowering the threshold for market entry, and promoting a market-oriented economy.
Part Five, which is Chapter8, concludes the dissertation. Based on an overview of the theories and empirical results, this chapter discusses the unsolved issues and the future research direction.
The contributions of this study are four-fold. Firstly, this study provides a conceptual definition of consumption growth. Consumption growth has been extensively studied in the previous literature, yet the concept has not been cleared defined. No agreement on the connotation and denotation of consumption growth has been reached. This study bridges this gap by precisely defining the connotation and denotation of consumption growth, and setting up its statistical measurements. Secondly, a unique perspective is provided. As one of the three pillars of economic growth, the research on consumption is enormous. However, previous studies have been mainly focusing on either macro or micro levels. This research contributes to the literature from a multidimensional perspective by incorporating the micro system into the macro economy. Contrasts are conducted both within the province and between the provincial and national levels. In addition, household expenditure per capita is associated with macro household consumption. The three-level association would further contribute to the understanding of consumption. Thirdly, this study proposes an innovative research idea. Recommendations are drawn from the proposed system that incorporates social welfare as a benchmark and connects both macro and micro levels. Comparing with the conventional economic standard, this study brings the consumption research to the next level. Fourthly, the creative research methods make this study stand out from the literature. Starting from a single factor analysis, this study examines the effects of each socio-economic factor on household consumption, based on which a multi-factor model is developed, introducing dummy variables at different stages to gauge the influence of policy change on household consumption.
On the other hand, limitations of this study must be admitted. First of all, the unavailability of empirical data limits the depth and methods of this study. As the data of residents' individual expenditures are unavailable, it is not feasible to compare the differences between individuals or clusters. For instance, as the statistics of income groups have only been available since2007, the constructed panel data is with a relatively short time span. Although the tests yield a favourable result, the accuracy and reliability are not doubt-free. Second, only the national average levels are used as the benchmark to compare with household consumption and its structure in Heilongjiang. The analyses would have benefitted from a contrast to regions with similar levels of income and development, or even a comparison with developed countries at a comparable development stage. Third, the author's knowledge and skills restrain the use of several newly developed methods such as partial linear model or semiparametric regression model and mean structure changes model. However, these approaches are not adopted due to the limitations of the Eviews programme and the author's programming skills. It is therefore to be placed in the author's future research agenda.
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