石化企业重大危险设备模糊概率风险评价方法研究
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摘要
在影响石化企业安全生产的诸多因素中,设备的安全运行对保证石化企业的安全生产起到重要作用。在石化企业中运行的设备一般都是危险性大、专业性强的设备,我们称之为在役的重大危险设备。在传统的管理模式下,设备投产初期和设计寿命期失效概率较高,在运行期失效概率较低。定期对设备进行风险评价,可以及时地发现设备运行中存在的缺陷,采取控制措施,这样可以使设备的失效概率在整个生命周期内是平稳变化的,增加设备的使用寿命。
本文提出了一种适合在役重大危险设备的简单、方便、经济、有效的风险评价方法——模糊概率风险评价法,并建立了模糊概率风险评价法的数学模型和流程,该方法是针对重大危险设备的事故特性开发的,它是以概率风险评价方法为基础,综合运用故障类型与严重度分析(FMEA)、故障树分析(FTA)等方法,对重大危险设备进行风险评价,该方法可及时发现重大危险设备存在的安全隐患,确定其危险程度,指导设备安全管理和检修维修工作。
分析了石化企业重大危险设备事故发生概率的不确定性,引入了模糊数学的基本理论,提出用模糊数表示事件的发生概率,以减小获取事件发生概率精确值的难度,并对重大危险设备的隶属函数进行了研究,使结果描述更加科学、准确。
在论文的第四章还对重大危险设备的模糊概率风险评价方法进行了应用,并编制了评价软件。
In many factors of affecting working safely in petrochemical corporation, the workingsafely of the equipments acts weightily to ensure the working safely in petrochemical. Theequipments of petrochemical corporation, many of which are dangerous equipments, are calledon-line dangerous equipments. In the traditional management mode, the fault probability ofthe equipment is high in early days after the put into production and the design life-span, andlow in the run days. carrying through risk assessment to the equipment termly can find thelimitation in time and take action, which make the fault probability change placidly and addthe life of the equipment.
This paper bring forwards a simple, economic and effective risk assessment method,which is Fuzzy Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and established the math model of this menthod.This method develop to the fault characteristic of the dangerous equipment. It is on the basisof PRA, synthesizing FMEA and FTA, evaluate the dangerous equipment. This method canfind the hidden trouble timely, ascertain the danger degree and direction the safety manage andthe examination.
analyzing the unsureness of the probability of the fault of gravely risk equipments inpetrochemical corporation, introduced fuzzy theory, bring forward expressing the probabilityby fuzzy number, to reduce the difficulty of getparms, and studying the subjection function toget the result more scientific and exactler.
In the fourth chapter of this paper, applying the fuzzy probability risk assessment andworkout the risk assessment soft.
本文提出了一种适合在役重大危险设备的简单、方便、经济、有效的风险评价方法——模糊概率风险评价法,并建立了模糊概率风险评价法的数学模型和流程,该方法是针对重大危险设备的事故特性开发的,它是以概率风险评价方法为基础,综合运用故障类型与严重度分析(FMEA)、故障树分析(FTA)等方法,对重大危险设备进行风险评价,该方法可及时发现重大危险设备存在的安全隐患,确定其危险程度,指导设备安全管理和检修维修工作。
分析了石化企业重大危险设备事故发生概率的不确定性,引入了模糊数学的基本理论,提出用模糊数表示事件的发生概率,以减小获取事件发生概率精确值的难度,并对重大危险设备的隶属函数进行了研究,使结果描述更加科学、准确。
在论文的第四章还对重大危险设备的模糊概率风险评价方法进行了应用,并编制了评价软件。
In many factors of affecting working safely in petrochemical corporation, the workingsafely of the equipments acts weightily to ensure the working safely in petrochemical. Theequipments of petrochemical corporation, many of which are dangerous equipments, are calledon-line dangerous equipments. In the traditional management mode, the fault probability ofthe equipment is high in early days after the put into production and the design life-span, andlow in the run days. carrying through risk assessment to the equipment termly can find thelimitation in time and take action, which make the fault probability change placidly and addthe life of the equipment.
This paper bring forwards a simple, economic and effective risk assessment method,which is Fuzzy Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and established the math model of this menthod.This method develop to the fault characteristic of the dangerous equipment. It is on the basisof PRA, synthesizing FMEA and FTA, evaluate the dangerous equipment. This method canfind the hidden trouble timely, ascertain the danger degree and direction the safety manage andthe examination.
analyzing the unsureness of the probability of the fault of gravely risk equipments inpetrochemical corporation, introduced fuzzy theory, bring forward expressing the probabilityby fuzzy number, to reduce the difficulty of getparms, and studying the subjection function toget the result more scientific and exactler.
In the fourth chapter of this paper, applying the fuzzy probability risk assessment andworkout the risk assessment soft.
引文
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