上市公司现金股利低聚现象研究
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摘要
股利政策作为现代财务理论的三大“谜题”之一,即使经历了半个多世纪的发展,由于新异象和谜题不断出现,始终未能总结出一个理论完整地解释股利政策的效果。为此,财务学家孜孜不倦地更深入研究和发展新的股利理论,他们发现虽然逐渐放松多项理想假设,但始终坚持“理性经济人”的假设,忽略了人的有限理性行为可能对股利政策产生影响。Shiner(1984)认为,未来的模型只有考虑这些因素的影响,才能更科学的解释股利“新谜题”;Miller(1986)也指出,在大多数微观决策的领域,把行为因素引入股利政策的解释,有助于解释长期以来的异象。
新兴的行为公司财务思想逐渐开始影响股利政策研究,为股利之谜的研究提出新视角,逐渐形成了行为股利理论学说。本文正是行为公司财务理论在现金股利政策领域的应用。本文从管理层决策的有限理性角度出发,研究行为因素——羊群行为和迎合行为对股利政策产生的影响。首先对国内外股利研究文献进行梳理和总结,提出本文的研究思路和内容。其次,对标准股利理论和行为股利理论进行对比论述,意在突出行为股利理论更能合理的解释我国现金股利分配“低聚”异象,为下文的实证检验奠定理论基础。再次,在充分的理论分析的基础上,采用实证和规范相结合的研究方法,以我国A股上市公司作为研究对象,分别从现金股利支付倾向和现金股利支付程度两个方面,研究管理层的有限理性行为——羊群行为和迎合行为对股利政策现状的影响。
研究结果表明:无论是从上市公司现金股利支付倾向方面来看,还是从上市公司现金股利支付程度方面来看,管理层的羊群行为对股利支付倾向和支付程度确实产生了显著的影响,从而证明管理层在制定股利政策时,存在羊群行为;同时,管理层的迎合行为对股利支付倾向和支付程度也产生了显著的影响,从而证明管理者在制定股利政策时,存在迎合广大流通股股东偏好的行为。最后,在对研究进行总结的基础上,针对我国现金股利“低聚”现象,立足本国国情,对政府监管部门和上市公司管理层提出了建设性的建议。
As one of the most important financial policy, Dividend policy has been paid much more attention to for half a century. With the development of the stock market, the dividend theories are all kinds of, such as the Lintner model, the agency theory and so on. But so far, none of them could explain the whole puzzle of dividend. In order to explain the phenomenon, researchers began to relax some assumptions of MM theory. Those made much more distributions on explaining dividend policies, though they insisted on their own assumptions, and ignored human behavior bias. Shiner (1984) agreed that unless those elements were taken into model in the future, it is difficult to explain the irrational behavior. Miller (1986) pointed out that behavioral elements played important roles in microeconomics, they could not be ignored, and take the behavioral elements into dividend theories might help to resolve a long standing issue.
With the development of behavioral and psychological science, the behavioral theory has been taken into finance studying. With the tools of herding theory and catering theory, the paper is intended to explain some strange dividend phenomena in listed companies. By discussing the relationship between manager behaviors and cash dividend policies, we find that manager behaviors influence the cash dividends. Firstly, the paper begins with literature reviews, contents, framework and the contributions. Secondly, we describe that the strange cash dividend phenomena happening in different industries and in every year. And find that behavioral dividend theories can explain the phenomena in China market. Thirdly, chapter four takes empirical research between behaviors of manager and cash dividends. Finally, the paper makes the conclusion of the empirical research, including the suggestions, the limitations and the directions for future research.
In a word, this paper offers evidences that herding and catering behaviors of managers can explain the dividend policies of listed companies. The behavioral elements are important factors which influence dividend payments. According to the above, the paper gives some suggestions to the company managers and the government. All these suggestions base on condition of our country, and raise the paper to higher lever.
新兴的行为公司财务思想逐渐开始影响股利政策研究,为股利之谜的研究提出新视角,逐渐形成了行为股利理论学说。本文正是行为公司财务理论在现金股利政策领域的应用。本文从管理层决策的有限理性角度出发,研究行为因素——羊群行为和迎合行为对股利政策产生的影响。首先对国内外股利研究文献进行梳理和总结,提出本文的研究思路和内容。其次,对标准股利理论和行为股利理论进行对比论述,意在突出行为股利理论更能合理的解释我国现金股利分配“低聚”异象,为下文的实证检验奠定理论基础。再次,在充分的理论分析的基础上,采用实证和规范相结合的研究方法,以我国A股上市公司作为研究对象,分别从现金股利支付倾向和现金股利支付程度两个方面,研究管理层的有限理性行为——羊群行为和迎合行为对股利政策现状的影响。
研究结果表明:无论是从上市公司现金股利支付倾向方面来看,还是从上市公司现金股利支付程度方面来看,管理层的羊群行为对股利支付倾向和支付程度确实产生了显著的影响,从而证明管理层在制定股利政策时,存在羊群行为;同时,管理层的迎合行为对股利支付倾向和支付程度也产生了显著的影响,从而证明管理者在制定股利政策时,存在迎合广大流通股股东偏好的行为。最后,在对研究进行总结的基础上,针对我国现金股利“低聚”现象,立足本国国情,对政府监管部门和上市公司管理层提出了建设性的建议。
As one of the most important financial policy, Dividend policy has been paid much more attention to for half a century. With the development of the stock market, the dividend theories are all kinds of, such as the Lintner model, the agency theory and so on. But so far, none of them could explain the whole puzzle of dividend. In order to explain the phenomenon, researchers began to relax some assumptions of MM theory. Those made much more distributions on explaining dividend policies, though they insisted on their own assumptions, and ignored human behavior bias. Shiner (1984) agreed that unless those elements were taken into model in the future, it is difficult to explain the irrational behavior. Miller (1986) pointed out that behavioral elements played important roles in microeconomics, they could not be ignored, and take the behavioral elements into dividend theories might help to resolve a long standing issue.
With the development of behavioral and psychological science, the behavioral theory has been taken into finance studying. With the tools of herding theory and catering theory, the paper is intended to explain some strange dividend phenomena in listed companies. By discussing the relationship between manager behaviors and cash dividend policies, we find that manager behaviors influence the cash dividends. Firstly, the paper begins with literature reviews, contents, framework and the contributions. Secondly, we describe that the strange cash dividend phenomena happening in different industries and in every year. And find that behavioral dividend theories can explain the phenomena in China market. Thirdly, chapter four takes empirical research between behaviors of manager and cash dividends. Finally, the paper makes the conclusion of the empirical research, including the suggestions, the limitations and the directions for future research.
In a word, this paper offers evidences that herding and catering behaviors of managers can explain the dividend policies of listed companies. The behavioral elements are important factors which influence dividend payments. According to the above, the paper gives some suggestions to the company managers and the government. All these suggestions base on condition of our country, and raise the paper to higher lever.
引文
②王锴.行为财务:理论演进.2008.本文沿用这一说法。
③Statman.“Behavioral Finance Versus Standard Finance”. 1995.本文也采用这一说法。
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[3]陈晓,陈小悦.我国上市公司首次股利信号传递效用的实证研究[J].经济科学,2002,(5):33-38.
[4]黄娟娟.行为股利政策——基于我国上市公司股利“群聚”现象研究[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.
[5]黄娟娟,沈艺峰.上市公司的股利政策究竟迎合了谁的需要——来自中国上市公司的经验数据[J].会计研究,2008:66-76.
[6]黄雷,叶勇,杨芸芸.股权分置改革、终极控制和投资者利益保护[J].经济与管理研究,2009,(6):32-39.
[7]洪洁,刘欧.基于行为财务的我国上市公司股利政策研究[J].经济问题探讨,2010,(5):56-62.
[8]李常青.现代股利理论的演进与评价[J].财会通讯,2004,(6):59-61.
[9]李艳荣.行为公司财务的最新发展及其启示[J].上海立信会计学院报,2005,(1):14-18.
[10]李增泉,孙铮,王志伟.“掏空”与所有权安排——来自我国上市公司大股东资金占用的经验证据[J].会计研究,2004,(12):3-23.
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[12]龚慧云.行为股利政策研究:一个文献综述[J].上海金融,2009,(9):57-61.
[13]孔小文,于晓坤.上市公司股利政策信号传递效应的实证分析[J].管理世界,2003,(6):114-118.
[14]陆健清.行为金融学[M].上海:立信会计出版社,2008:138-155.
[15]路易斯,科雷拉,达.席尔瓦等著.罗培新译.股利政策理论与公司治理[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2008.
[16]罗宏.上市公司现金股利政策与公司治理研究[M].西南财经大学出版社,2008:112-115.
[17]马曙光,黄志忠,薛云奎.股权分置、资金侵占与上市公司现金股利政策[J].会计研究,2005,(9):36-38.
[18]饶育蕾,李湘平.股利折价与迎合:来自我国上市公司现金股利分配的证据[J].管理工程,2008,22(1):36-43.
[19]沈艺峰,许琳,黄娟娟.我国股权分置中对价水平的“群聚”现象分析[J].经济研究,2006,(11):102-111.
[20]宋军,吴冲锋.中国股评家的羊群行为研究[J].经济研究,2003:67-78.
[21]王惠文.偏最小二乘回归的线性与非线性方法[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2006.
[22]王锴.行为财务:理论演进与中国证据[M].合肥:合肥工业大学出版社,2008:151-155.
[23]夏明.行为财务学发展路径探析[J].会计研究,2010,(2):65-71.
[24]谢岚,赵翠平.基于主成分分析的上市公司现金股利政策影响因素分析实证分析[J].经济研究,2009,(1):22-24.
[25]肖星,王琨.股权结构与关联方占用的实证研究[J].南开管理评论,2005,(2):27-33.
[26]伊志宏,刘亦宁.公司财务研究现状及展望[J].中国人民大学学报,2008,(4):98-106.
[27]余明桂,夏新平,邹振松.管理者过度自信与企业激进负债行为[J].管理世界,2006,(8):32-40.
[28]赵春光,张雪丽.股利政策:选择动因——来自我国证券市场的实证证据[J].财经研究,2001,(2):56-61.
[29]张纯,吕伟.信息环境、融资约束和现金股利[J].金融研究,2009,(7):81-95.
[30]张莉芳,蒋琰.基于有限理性的企业股利政策异象研究[J].财会通讯,2010,(4):93-95.
[31]张浩.融资过程中管理者的羊群行为分析[J].湖南科技大学学报,2008.
[32]朱武祥.行为公司理论:理论研究发展与实践意义[J].证券市场导报,2005,(5):53-58.
[33]Berhard,D. pello, M. and Soati E. Who Herds [J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2006, 80:657-675.
[34]Benito, A. and Young, G.. Hard Times or Great Expectations: Dividend Omissions and Dividend Cuts by UK Firms [J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2001, 65:31-55.
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[1]陈伟,葛岳静.股改前后我国A股上市公司股利政策比较研究[J].财经视线,2009,(27):89-95.
[2]陈信元,陈冬华,时旭.公司治理与现金股利:基于佛山照明的案例研究[J].管理世界,2003,(8):118-126.
[3]陈晓,陈小悦.我国上市公司首次股利信号传递效用的实证研究[J].经济科学,2002,(5):33-38.
[4]黄娟娟.行为股利政策——基于我国上市公司股利“群聚”现象研究[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.
[5]黄娟娟,沈艺峰.上市公司的股利政策究竟迎合了谁的需要——来自中国上市公司的经验数据[J].会计研究,2008:66-76.
[6]黄雷,叶勇,杨芸芸.股权分置改革、终极控制和投资者利益保护[J].经济与管理研究,2009,(6):32-39.
[7]洪洁,刘欧.基于行为财务的我国上市公司股利政策研究[J].经济问题探讨,2010,(5):56-62.
[8]李常青.现代股利理论的演进与评价[J].财会通讯,2004,(6):59-61.
[9]李艳荣.行为公司财务的最新发展及其启示[J].上海立信会计学院报,2005,(1):14-18.
[10]李增泉,孙铮,王志伟.“掏空”与所有权安排——来自我国上市公司大股东资金占用的经验证据[J].会计研究,2004,(12):3-23.
[11]刘冰,张凤莲.从上市公司看股利政策理论的适应性[J].财会通讯,2004,(4):32-36.
[12]龚慧云.行为股利政策研究:一个文献综述[J].上海金融,2009,(9):57-61.
[13]孔小文,于晓坤.上市公司股利政策信号传递效应的实证分析[J].管理世界,2003,(6):114-118.
[14]陆健清.行为金融学[M].上海:立信会计出版社,2008:138-155.
[15]路易斯,科雷拉,达.席尔瓦等著.罗培新译.股利政策理论与公司治理[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2008.
[16]罗宏.上市公司现金股利政策与公司治理研究[M].西南财经大学出版社,2008:112-115.
[17]马曙光,黄志忠,薛云奎.股权分置、资金侵占与上市公司现金股利政策[J].会计研究,2005,(9):36-38.
[18]饶育蕾,李湘平.股利折价与迎合:来自我国上市公司现金股利分配的证据[J].管理工程,2008,22(1):36-43.
[19]沈艺峰,许琳,黄娟娟.我国股权分置中对价水平的“群聚”现象分析[J].经济研究,2006,(11):102-111.
[20]宋军,吴冲锋.中国股评家的羊群行为研究[J].经济研究,2003:67-78.
[21]王惠文.偏最小二乘回归的线性与非线性方法[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2006.
[22]王锴.行为财务:理论演进与中国证据[M].合肥:合肥工业大学出版社,2008:151-155.
[23]夏明.行为财务学发展路径探析[J].会计研究,2010,(2):65-71.
[24]谢岚,赵翠平.基于主成分分析的上市公司现金股利政策影响因素分析实证分析[J].经济研究,2009,(1):22-24.
[25]肖星,王琨.股权结构与关联方占用的实证研究[J].南开管理评论,2005,(2):27-33.
[26]伊志宏,刘亦宁.公司财务研究现状及展望[J].中国人民大学学报,2008,(4):98-106.
[27]余明桂,夏新平,邹振松.管理者过度自信与企业激进负债行为[J].管理世界,2006,(8):32-40.
[28]赵春光,张雪丽.股利政策:选择动因——来自我国证券市场的实证证据[J].财经研究,2001,(2):56-61.
[29]张纯,吕伟.信息环境、融资约束和现金股利[J].金融研究,2009,(7):81-95.
[30]张莉芳,蒋琰.基于有限理性的企业股利政策异象研究[J].财会通讯,2010,(4):93-95.
[31]张浩.融资过程中管理者的羊群行为分析[J].湖南科技大学学报,2008.
[32]朱武祥.行为公司理论:理论研究发展与实践意义[J].证券市场导报,2005,(5):53-58.
[33]Berhard,D. pello, M. and Soati E. Who Herds [J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2006, 80:657-675.
[34]Benito, A. and Young, G.. Hard Times or Great Expectations: Dividend Omissions and Dividend Cuts by UK Firms [J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2001, 65:31-55.
[35]Biarritz, S., Michaely, R. and Thaler, R. Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Past or the Future [J]. Journal of Finance, 1997, 52:1007-1034.
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