储蓄投资转化效率对甘肃经济增长的影响研究
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摘要
储蓄是参与经济活动的主体所积累的财富的集合。作为一种经济行为,储蓄则是指经济主体为未来的效用而进行资产配置的行为。与此同时,储蓄作为这种资产配置行为的结果,构成了社会投资需求的资金源泉,其丰富程度和可获得性将影响投资和经济增长。从动态的角度看,储蓄主体预留储蓄的倾向和持有储蓄的形式决定储蓄的供给,进而影响储蓄与投资的供求均衡。在低水平上的均衡不仅影响社会当期的产出而且影响社会未来的资本形成。这种资金供求的均衡是通过储蓄向投资转化的机制来实现的。储蓄投资转化机制主要包括储蓄转化为投资的途径,工具,效率等内容。本文从研究储蓄投资的转化效率出发,来探索经济运行中储蓄利用问题及其对经济增长带来的影响。
本文首先对储蓄及相关的概念进行科学的界定,并确定本文所选择的计量指标。本文以甘肃省2000-2008年的经济数据为参考,在时间序列上研究甘肃居民储蓄转化为投资的效率,并从社会和宏观经济环境的角度分析了影响储蓄投资转化效率的因素。为了研究储蓄投资转化效率对经济增长的影响,本文将不同转化效率的储蓄投资转化机制作为一种制度因素纳入经济增长的源泉核算,首先计算出时间序列上的年度全要素增长率,通过对年度全要素增长率与时间序列上的储蓄投资转化效率进行回归分析和参数检验,结果表明,在影响全要素增长率的众多因素中,储蓄投资转化效率的提高对全要素增长率的提高具有较强的促进作用。由于在现代经济中,各种金融中介机构托管大量金融资产,所形成的金融市场影响着储蓄向投资的间接转化,影响社会的可贷资金供给与资本形成,因此,本文也将分析金融市场对储蓄供给,储蓄投资转化带来的影响,并提出构建高效的储蓄投资转化机制的建议。
Savings is a set of wealth belong to the anticipator of economic activities.As a type of economic management deed, it can be recognized as assert arrangement of the savor for the welfare of future. As the result of the activity, savings contributed the resource of capital that satisfies investment demand.The amount and access to acquire the resource determines the capital formation and economic growth. Dynamically, the saving preference and the distribution of financial assert determines the supply of savings, and further more determines the equilibrium of the saving supply and investment demand. The low level equilibrium affects the output of the society and the capital formation and the supply ability in the future.The equilibrium is formed through the mechanism of the saving-investment transformation, which concludes the path, media, and the efficiency of the transformation. Through the research of the efficiency of saving-investment transformation, this desertion explored the problem of the usage of savings in economy and its affection to economic growth.
This desertion defined the conception of saving scientifically in order to select proper indexes. Through the collection and analysis of the economic data of Gansu province since 2000-2008, we calculate the efficiency of saving-investment transformation in time series. In order to discover the how the saving-investment transformation efficiency affects the economic growth,we calculate the TFP growth ratio in time series, then through the regression and parametric test, the result show that among the numerous factors that affects the total factor growth, the improvement of the efficiency of savings-investment transformation is beneficial to the increase of total factor growth ratio. In modern economy, financial institutions manages huge amount of financial assert,which affects the output and capital accumulation of the society, so, this desertion also concern the factors that affects the supply and transformation of saving from the perspective of financial market and gives policy proposal to improve the savings-investment transformation efficiency.
本文首先对储蓄及相关的概念进行科学的界定,并确定本文所选择的计量指标。本文以甘肃省2000-2008年的经济数据为参考,在时间序列上研究甘肃居民储蓄转化为投资的效率,并从社会和宏观经济环境的角度分析了影响储蓄投资转化效率的因素。为了研究储蓄投资转化效率对经济增长的影响,本文将不同转化效率的储蓄投资转化机制作为一种制度因素纳入经济增长的源泉核算,首先计算出时间序列上的年度全要素增长率,通过对年度全要素增长率与时间序列上的储蓄投资转化效率进行回归分析和参数检验,结果表明,在影响全要素增长率的众多因素中,储蓄投资转化效率的提高对全要素增长率的提高具有较强的促进作用。由于在现代经济中,各种金融中介机构托管大量金融资产,所形成的金融市场影响着储蓄向投资的间接转化,影响社会的可贷资金供给与资本形成,因此,本文也将分析金融市场对储蓄供给,储蓄投资转化带来的影响,并提出构建高效的储蓄投资转化机制的建议。
Savings is a set of wealth belong to the anticipator of economic activities.As a type of economic management deed, it can be recognized as assert arrangement of the savor for the welfare of future. As the result of the activity, savings contributed the resource of capital that satisfies investment demand.The amount and access to acquire the resource determines the capital formation and economic growth. Dynamically, the saving preference and the distribution of financial assert determines the supply of savings, and further more determines the equilibrium of the saving supply and investment demand. The low level equilibrium affects the output of the society and the capital formation and the supply ability in the future.The equilibrium is formed through the mechanism of the saving-investment transformation, which concludes the path, media, and the efficiency of the transformation. Through the research of the efficiency of saving-investment transformation, this desertion explored the problem of the usage of savings in economy and its affection to economic growth.
This desertion defined the conception of saving scientifically in order to select proper indexes. Through the collection and analysis of the economic data of Gansu province since 2000-2008, we calculate the efficiency of saving-investment transformation in time series. In order to discover the how the saving-investment transformation efficiency affects the economic growth,we calculate the TFP growth ratio in time series, then through the regression and parametric test, the result show that among the numerous factors that affects the total factor growth, the improvement of the efficiency of savings-investment transformation is beneficial to the increase of total factor growth ratio. In modern economy, financial institutions manages huge amount of financial assert,which affects the output and capital accumulation of the society, so, this desertion also concern the factors that affects the supply and transformation of saving from the perspective of financial market and gives policy proposal to improve the savings-investment transformation efficiency.
引文
[1]麦金农,《经济发展中的货币与资本》.中国金融出版社,2006.
[2]爱德华·肖,《经济发展中的金融深化》,北京,中国社会科学出版社,1989.
[3]兹维·博迪,罗伯特·C·莫顿.《金融学》,中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[4]索洛.《经济增长论文集》,北京,北京经济学院出版社,1989.
[5]吴少新.《储蓄——投资转化的金融机制》,北京中国经济出版社,1998.
[6]应展宇.《储蓄——投资转化中的资本市场——功能视角的经济分析》.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004.
[7]杨思群.资本积累与资本形成[M].北京,社会科学文献出版社,1998.
[8]武剑.储蓄、投资和经济增长——中国资金供求的动态分析.经济研究[J].1999,(11).
[9]包群,阳小晓,赖明勇.我国储蓄率-投资转化率的经验性研究：1978-2002[J].统计研究,2004,155(9)：16-19.
[10]周银香.我国储蓄-投资转化机制的发展轨迹与现实选择[J].统计与信息论坛2002,(03)
[11]张玉喜.我国储蓄——投资转化机制问题分析[J].学术交流,2003,(03)
[12]肖红叶,周国富.我国储蓄——投资转化有效性研究[J].统计研究,2000,(03)
[13]胥良.《储蓄-投资转化的理论分析与现实思考》,金融研究1998,(8)
[14]赵晓华.我国东,中,西部地区经济增长差异的因素分析：1952-2005[J].特区经济,2008,(2).
[15]何枫,陈荣,何林.我国资本存量的估算及其相关分析[J].经济学家,2003,(5)
[16]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算：1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004,(10)
[17]邓艾,钱力,马生全.甘肃省资本存量K的估算：1952-2003.[J].西北民族大学学报,2005,(9).
[18]李友超.居民储蓄投资转化机制的影响因素分析[J].当代经济,2001,(07)
[19]贺学会.我国储蓄——投资转化机制探讨[J].金融研究,1996,(06)
[20]李焰.关于利率与我国居民储蓄关系的探讨[J].经济研究,1999,(11)
[21]李健.关于我国居民储蓄质量问题探讨[J].金融科学,1991,(04)
[22]杨勇华.我国居民储蓄-投资转化效率的实证分析[J]，财经理论与实践,2006.
[23]吴少新.市场金融主导型储蓄投资转化机制论.改革论坛.1996(12)
[24]吴易风,朱勇.内生增长理论的新发展[J].中国人民大学学报,2000,(05).
[25]刘剑.内生增长理论：综合分析与简要评价[J].审计与经济研究,2005,(02)
[26]席庆高.《1990-2004年中国储蓄-投资转化实证研究》[D],南京理工大学,2006.
[27]唐平华.《居民储蓄-投资转化的理论分析与现实思考》[D],湘潭大学,2001.
[28]于玲.《论投资与经济增长-解决我国投资中存在的问题》[D],山东大学2007.
[29]徐忠秀.《我国储蓄-投资转化机制研究》[D],厦门大学,2007.
[30]李贵茜.《我国储蓄投资转化机制分析-透视国内储蓄过剩与大规模资本流入现象》[D],山东大学,2008.
[31]高路青.《储蓄投资转化的资本市场机制研究：基于功能观分析框架》[D],浙江大学,2006.
[32]宋娟.《居民储蓄与经济增长的相关性研究》[D],东北财经大学,2006.
[33]Feldstein, M. and Horioka, C. (1980), Domestic Saving and International Capital FlowsJ. The Economic Journal 90.
[34]Levine, R.(1997), Financial development and economic growth:views and agenda J.Journal of Economic Literature,35(2).
[35]Mckinnon, R.I. and Pill, H.,Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowings,America: American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,1997, Vol.87, No.2.
[2]爱德华·肖,《经济发展中的金融深化》,北京,中国社会科学出版社,1989.
[3]兹维·博迪,罗伯特·C·莫顿.《金融学》,中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[4]索洛.《经济增长论文集》,北京,北京经济学院出版社,1989.
[5]吴少新.《储蓄——投资转化的金融机制》,北京中国经济出版社,1998.
[6]应展宇.《储蓄——投资转化中的资本市场——功能视角的经济分析》.北京：中国人民大学出版社,2004.
[7]杨思群.资本积累与资本形成[M].北京,社会科学文献出版社,1998.
[8]武剑.储蓄、投资和经济增长——中国资金供求的动态分析.经济研究[J].1999,(11).
[9]包群,阳小晓,赖明勇.我国储蓄率-投资转化率的经验性研究：1978-2002[J].统计研究,2004,155(9)：16-19.
[10]周银香.我国储蓄-投资转化机制的发展轨迹与现实选择[J].统计与信息论坛2002,(03)
[11]张玉喜.我国储蓄——投资转化机制问题分析[J].学术交流,2003,(03)
[12]肖红叶,周国富.我国储蓄——投资转化有效性研究[J].统计研究,2000,(03)
[13]胥良.《储蓄-投资转化的理论分析与现实思考》,金融研究1998,(8)
[14]赵晓华.我国东,中,西部地区经济增长差异的因素分析：1952-2005[J].特区经济,2008,(2).
[15]何枫,陈荣,何林.我国资本存量的估算及其相关分析[J].经济学家,2003,(5)
[16]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算：1952-2000[J].经济研究,2004,(10)
[17]邓艾,钱力,马生全.甘肃省资本存量K的估算：1952-2003.[J].西北民族大学学报,2005,(9).
[18]李友超.居民储蓄投资转化机制的影响因素分析[J].当代经济,2001,(07)
[19]贺学会.我国储蓄——投资转化机制探讨[J].金融研究,1996,(06)
[20]李焰.关于利率与我国居民储蓄关系的探讨[J].经济研究,1999,(11)
[21]李健.关于我国居民储蓄质量问题探讨[J].金融科学,1991,(04)
[22]杨勇华.我国居民储蓄-投资转化效率的实证分析[J]，财经理论与实践,2006.
[23]吴少新.市场金融主导型储蓄投资转化机制论.改革论坛.1996(12)
[24]吴易风,朱勇.内生增长理论的新发展[J].中国人民大学学报,2000,(05).
[25]刘剑.内生增长理论：综合分析与简要评价[J].审计与经济研究,2005,(02)
[26]席庆高.《1990-2004年中国储蓄-投资转化实证研究》[D],南京理工大学,2006.
[27]唐平华.《居民储蓄-投资转化的理论分析与现实思考》[D],湘潭大学,2001.
[28]于玲.《论投资与经济增长-解决我国投资中存在的问题》[D],山东大学2007.
[29]徐忠秀.《我国储蓄-投资转化机制研究》[D],厦门大学,2007.
[30]李贵茜.《我国储蓄投资转化机制分析-透视国内储蓄过剩与大规模资本流入现象》[D],山东大学,2008.
[31]高路青.《储蓄投资转化的资本市场机制研究：基于功能观分析框架》[D],浙江大学,2006.
[32]宋娟.《居民储蓄与经济增长的相关性研究》[D],东北财经大学,2006.
[33]Feldstein, M. and Horioka, C. (1980), Domestic Saving and International Capital FlowsJ. The Economic Journal 90.
[34]Levine, R.(1997), Financial development and economic growth:views and agenda J.Journal of Economic Literature,35(2).
[35]Mckinnon, R.I. and Pill, H.,Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowings,America: American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings,1997, Vol.87, No.2.